Transcript [00:02] So, how much of a threat is Turkey [00:05] really? You know, we've been talking [00:07] about Turkey a lot lately about how [00:09] they're they're trying to become the new [00:11] Iran encircling Israel. They of course [00:13] have their proxy Al-Julani in in Syria [00:17] and they have a lot of influence on [00:18] what's going on in Iraq and they have [00:20] troops in Somalia and they're working [00:23] more and more closely with Egypt and [00:26] they of course they have this great [00:27] relationship with Qatar and Turkey is on [00:30] our minds. You know, the Turkish threat [00:33] emerging in the future and that's all [00:35] real. However, in this video what I'd [00:36] like to do is shed light on that whole [00:39] topic by looking at the Turkish economy, [00:43] a topic that we've never really touched [00:44] on here and I think will help us [00:45] understand more broadly what the [00:48] prospects are for the Turkish threat to [00:51] Israel, okay? [00:53] Um, you know, cuz again, you see all the [00:55] tough talk of of of Erdogan talking [00:58] about destroying Israel and our instinct [01:00] is to look at Turkey and see that [01:03] they're you know, they're a NATO member, [01:05] they're the second largest army in NATO [01:08] and they have growing regional [01:09] ambitions. [01:11] But [01:13] the I want to give us all a different [01:15] way of looking at all that because while [01:17] the rhetoric I'm not saying the rhetoric [01:19] doesn't matter, it matters, [01:21] but the numbers of the economy [01:25] uh of the Turkish economy really shed a [01:27] lot of light on it. So, there's an [01:29] economist named Steve Hanke [01:32] who publishes something every year [01:34] called the misery index. Now, it's a [01:36] kind of funny name, but the idea behind [01:39] it is actually very simple and it's a [01:40] real economic measure. It's so simple [01:43] that you don't need an economics degree [01:44] to understand it. You take a country's [01:46] inflation rate, meaning again, how fast [01:49] prices are rising, and you add it to the [01:51] unemployment rate, [01:53] what percentage of people can't find [01:55] work, and you simply put those two [01:57] numbers together. That's Hanke's misery [01:59] index. That's the misery score. The [02:02] higher the score, the more economic pain [02:04] the average person in that country is [02:07] living through. And Hanke ranked 156 [02:11] countries this way for 2025, [02:14] okay? [02:15] Uh [02:16] 156 [02:18] countries. [02:20] And where do you think Turkey ranked? I [02:22] mean, think about all the miserable [02:23] countries in this world. We We'd imagine [02:26] that Turkey would be maybe bad, but how [02:29] bad are they? Well, actually, they're [02:30] ranked third worst in the world. Let me [02:34] show that to you cuz it's really quite [02:36] quite amazing. Check this out. [02:39] Here's the list. The worst country in [02:41] the world in 2025 was Venezuela. [02:44] The second was Sudan. These countries [02:46] are absolute messes with wars and [02:49] revolutions or whatever it is going on [02:50] in Venezuela and Sudan. And number three [02:52] on the list is Turkey. [02:55] Ahead of Iran, ahead of Argentina, ahead [02:57] of such economic [03:00] uh [03:00] economic luminaries as Haiti and Lebanon [03:03] and Yemen and Syria. [03:07] In other words, Turkey was third worst [03:09] in the world according to this measure. [03:13] Are you surprised by that? I know I was [03:15] surprised by that. [03:18] So, [03:20] this is a straightforward economist [03:22] calculation. Again, it's inflation rate [03:24] and unemployment rate, and it's about as [03:26] hard a number as you're going to find. [03:27] So, before we talk about the rhetoric, [03:30] Erdoğan's rhetoric, you know, rhetoric [03:32] about Israel, [03:33] I want you to think about that simple [03:35] fact. [03:37] Now, let's break down what's actually [03:38] driving that misery score in plain [03:40] terms. First of all, there's the [03:41] inflation. As of this past July, [03:44] Turkey's official inflation rate was [03:46] 31.8%, [03:47] meaning that on average, the stuff [03:49] people buy costs almost a third more [03:51] than it did a year ago. Groceries, rent, [03:54] transportation. Officially, that's come [03:56] down from over 35% during the spike tied [04:00] to the Iran war earlier this year. [04:02] So, the government's story is we're [04:04] winning, inflation is falling, stay the [04:06] course. And I'll also point out that the [04:08] misery score that I shared with you was [04:09] from 2025. It doesn't even account for [04:13] all of the damage done to the Turkish [04:14] economy as a result of this war, which [04:16] we're going to get into in greater [04:18] detail. [04:21] But, here's the problem with the story [04:22] that the government of Turkey is telling [04:24] that inflation is currently falling by a [04:26] few percentage points. If you ask uh an [04:29] ordinary Turkish person, when when [04:31] surveys have been done of Turkish [04:33] households and they ask them what they [04:35] expect inflation to be by the end of the [04:37] year because consumer expectation is [04:39] also an important economic indicator, [04:42] the number comes back much higher, not [04:44] lower. Sometimes it can come in lower, [04:46] people have confidence the economy is [04:47] improving. It actually comes back at [04:49] nearly 45%. That's a huge gap between [04:52] between the government's number of 31% [04:55] and and the the expectation of people at [04:58] 45%. And what that means is that people [05:01] on the ground don't have confidence. [05:04] Um [05:05] and the [05:07] when people don't believe that prices [05:09] are coming under control, they behave [05:10] differently. They spend faster, they [05:12] demand higher wages, landlords raise [05:15] rent faster. That behavior itself pushes [05:18] prices up further. So, the expectation [05:20] of higher inflation actually leads to [05:22] higher inflation. In other words, let me [05:25] let me sum up this point. The Turkish [05:26] public is telling us through their own [05:29] expectations that they don't buy any [05:33] you know, the disinflation story that [05:35] the government is trying to tell. [05:37] Okay? Now, let's talk about the [05:38] unemployment piece. [05:40] Officially, Turkey's unemployment rate [05:42] is 8.5%, which on its face doesn't sound [05:45] catastrophic. [05:46] But, if you look closer at who's [05:49] actually being counted, when you use a [05:50] broader measure, [05:52] one that includes young people who have [05:53] simply given up looking for work, who [05:55] are stuck in part-time jobs they don't [05:57] want, uh [05:58] young unemployment in Turkey jumps to [06:01] 36%. [06:02] 36% more than one in three young adults [06:05] in Turkey is out of work. That's well [06:08] above the European Union average, and [06:10] it's an age group, it is the age group [06:13] really that drives political instability [06:15] everywhere in the world. [06:17] Because uh they're the ones with nothing [06:18] to lose and no stake yet in the system, [06:20] they tend to get angry easier. [06:23] Um and mobilize easier. So, let's put [06:25] everything together. We have an [06:27] inflation, a very high inflation, [06:30] that the pub- that the government is [06:32] saying is coming down, meaning even the [06:33] government's saying it's coming down to [06:34] 31%, that's still ridiculous amount of [06:36] inflation. [06:38] Um [06:38] inflation that and the public doesn't [06:40] even believe it's actually falling. More [06:42] than a third of young people are [06:44] functionally locked out of the job [06:46] market. That's the human reality behind [06:49] Hanke's number three ranking on the [06:51] misery index in Turkey. [06:54] Now, you'll see some worse numbers out [06:56] there that are being put out by media [06:59] outlets associated with uh opposition to [07:01] Erdoğan, and there's a lot of [07:03] misinformation out there. These are [07:04] really reliable numbers I've shared with [07:06] you. [07:06] Okay. Now, here's where this gets [07:08] interesting. [07:09] Turkey's Central Bank, [07:12] that's the equivalent of the of the [07:13] Federal Reserve if you're an American, [07:16] Turkey's Central Bank has been fighting [07:18] to keep the Turkish lira, their [07:20] currency, from collapsing. [07:23] Think of it like this. Imagine a family [07:25] with a big savings account, and every [07:27] month money is quietly draining out of [07:30] the family business. [07:32] So, to keep up appearances, to keep [07:34] paying the bills and keep the lights on [07:36] in the business, they're dipping into [07:37] the savings account faster and faster. [07:40] That's basically what Turkey's Central [07:41] Bank has been doing. But the savings [07:44] account in this case is the current is [07:46] the country's foreign currency and gold [07:48] reserves. [07:49] And the bills that they're trying to [07:51] cover is the devaluing of their own [07:53] currency. Is the the attacks on the [07:56] value of their own currency. So during [07:58] the worst weeks of the Iran war spike, [08:01] Turkey's Central Bank [08:03] sold off more than 26 billion dollars in [08:06] foreign currency and over 56 tons of [08:09] gold in a matter of weeks just to stop [08:11] the lira from crashing. And why the Iran [08:14] war caused such a crunch on the on the [08:16] Turkish economy we'll get to in a moment [08:19] uh because it's real I mean [08:21] the Turkish economy suffered greatly [08:23] from the Iran war. Anyways, that's 56 [08:26] tons of gold they sold off in a matter [08:28] of weeks. [08:30] And what that means is that the [08:31] government is spending down its savings [08:33] account, its emergency reserves at a [08:36] pace that is unsustainable in order to [08:38] project stability. [08:40] But that means that they don't really [08:41] have stability. They're losing stability [08:43] as they spend that money and there's a [08:45] veneer of greater stability because [08:47] again, that's why they're selling off [08:48] gold, they're selling off foreign [08:50] currency reserves to trying to stabilize [08:52] the lira because otherwise it would be [08:53] in freefall. [08:55] Here's the sec Here's another piece. And [08:57] I want to explain this one carefully [08:58] because it sounds technical but it's [08:59] actually a pretty simple idea. I had to [09:02] you know, I'm not an economist and I had [09:03] to do a lot of reading to understand [09:05] this. [09:06] Um [09:07] a huge number of Turkish companies [09:09] borrowed money in dollars because dollar [09:12] loans used to be cheaper [09:14] but they earn their revenue in lira [09:16] because that's what their customers pay [09:18] them with. Now imagine you took out a [09:20] loan in dollars [09:22] but your paycheck comes in a currency [09:24] that keeps losing value against the [09:26] dollar. So every time the lira weakens [09:30] your debt gets bigger even though you [09:33] didn't borrow any more money [09:35] because you you can only [09:37] you can only pay back in in in in in in [09:41] a currency that's dropping, but the [09:42] dollar stays the same amount. So, you're [09:44] losing money by not doing anything. So, [09:47] Turkish businesses collectively owe [09:49] about 197 billion more in foreign [09:53] currency than they hold in foreign [09:55] currency assets. That's the largest gap [09:58] like this in 8 years. [10:00] And it means that the private sector, [10:02] not just the government, is also getting [10:05] harmed, getting exposed every time the [10:07] lira drops more. Okay, so the lira is [10:10] dropping, government's trying to prop it [10:12] up, selling off currency reserves, [10:14] selling off gold. Meanwhile, uh Turkish [10:17] businesses are getting deeper and deeper [10:18] in debt because of the drop in the lira. [10:22] Third, Turkey has about 101.8 [10:27] billion, so like 102 billion dollars, in [10:30] short-term foreign debt [10:32] that has to be refinanced this year [10:34] alone. [10:35] So, think of this like a business owner [10:37] whose loan comes due, but they don't [10:39] have the cash to pay it off outright. [10:41] So, what they do is they go to the bank [10:43] to roll it over into a new loan. So, [10:45] Turkey needs foreign lenders and [10:47] investors to keep extending [10:50] uh new loans to them basically to [10:52] refinance, to give them trust year after [10:55] year. And that trust depends entirely on [10:58] foreign investors believing that [11:01] Turkey's economy a Turkey's economic [11:04] program is under control. [11:06] And the moment that that belief cracks, [11:08] the whole rollover gets a lot more [11:09] expensive, they get charged higher [11:11] rates, or it's just a lot harder to pull [11:13] off altogether. [11:15] So, let's let's pull this together. [11:17] Reserves are being drained, private [11:19] companies are exposed to a weakening [11:21] currency, putting them deeper and deeper [11:22] into debt, a huge pile of debt that [11:25] needs to be refinanced on the national [11:27] level on the good faith of foreign [11:29] lenders. That's the machinery [11:32] that is driving this this headline [11:36] inflation number that is so high. We're [11:37] talking about inflation [11:40] of like between 30 and 40%. [11:43] That's a crazy inflation number. If you [11:45] had inflation even a half of that in you [11:48] know, in in America, you'd be you'd be [11:50] going out of your mind. It would be like [11:51] nothing you've ever seen before. [11:54] Now let's connect this back to Israel [11:56] because that's the whole point of what [11:57] we do here in these videos. [11:59] Talking tough on Israel costs Erdogan [12:02] nothing. [12:03] It's domestically popular. [12:06] It plays well with his base. It plays [12:09] well across the Muslim world. [12:11] And it doesn't require spending a single [12:13] lira. And that's why you're seeing more [12:15] of it [12:16] as as the economic pain deepens at home. [12:19] Cheap rhetoric is a very good [12:20] distraction [12:22] well because it's cheap. [12:24] But a real confrontation, a military [12:26] move, a serious economic rupture which [12:29] would expose it to sanctions or [12:31] disrupted trade or energy routes. [12:33] Imagine imagine Turkey taking military [12:35] action and what that would do [12:37] in this very fragile economic reality [12:40] they're in. Okay? That's a different [12:42] category of cost entirely and [12:45] it's not a cost that the Turkish economy [12:47] is in a position to absorb. [12:50] So [12:52] well let me let me go a little further. [12:55] Turkey imports more than 90%. This gets [12:58] us into how the Iran war affected [13:00] Turkey. Turkey imports more than 90% of [13:03] its crude oil and 96% of its natural [13:07] gas. Okay? It doesn't produce its own [13:08] energy. It buys almost all of it from [13:11] somewhere else. [13:12] So [13:14] it already has to defend its currency by [13:16] burning through reserves. [13:19] And then along comes the Iran war and [13:21] there's this spike in crude oil prices [13:24] from the 60s to like 110. [13:27] And that's just even if it happens for a [13:29] few for a month or two, it just [13:32] it it it causes disruptions and shocks [13:35] to the Turkish system that it cannot [13:37] really absorb. [13:39] Okay? [13:41] Um [13:43] So again, they can't absorb [13:46] uh you know [13:47] you know, rapidly rising oil prices [13:50] because they buy everything from [13:51] elsewhere. [13:52] Uh they certainly would not be able to [13:54] afford anything that would come from [13:56] sanctions or disrupted trade routes if [13:59] they went to war. [14:01] Now, the Iran war spike gave us a [14:03] preview of what would happen if Turkey [14:07] ever went to war, right? The Central [14:09] Bank [14:11] as I said, had to burn through 26 [14:13] billion dollars of of dollar reserves [14:16] and 56 tons of gold just from the ripple [14:20] effects of the war in Iran that Turkey [14:22] wasn't even directly involved in. Okay, [14:25] that's my point. [14:26] So like we don't have to worry so much [14:28] about Turkey wanting to go to war. [14:30] There's a lot of rhetoric here. [14:33] So Turkey's rhetoric [14:35] and their actual capacity to act on that [14:37] rhetoric are two different things like [14:39] is what I'm saying. [14:40] And right now there's a massive gap [14:42] between those two things. He can afford [14:44] to talk, but his economy can't afford to [14:46] fight. [14:48] Now, it would be easy to end the video [14:49] right there and say it's all a [14:50] distraction, don't worry about the [14:52] rhetoric, it's a paper tiger. And [14:54] there's evidence for that read. [15:01] And there are analysts out there who do [15:03] frame this who who who understand [15:06] Erdogan's rhetoric as exactly that, as [15:08] deflection, as a as a leader of a [15:12] of an economy in crisis pointing his [15:14] public anger his public's anger outward [15:16] at Israel so it doesn't point inward at [15:19] him. [15:21] But I I want to give you a more honest [15:22] version of this cuz I don't think that I [15:24] think it's actually more I think it's [15:27] actually more accurate [15:29] and and more it's just more true to the [15:31] geopolitical reality we're in. [15:35] And there are other analysts who do make [15:36] this case that Erdogan is positioning [15:39] himself [15:43] when Erdogan positions himself as the [15:45] defender of the Palestinians, as the [15:47] leader of the Sunni world, which is what [15:49] he's doing now. [15:51] That is real. That's not just deflecting [15:53] because of the economy. [15:55] It's a long-running project of his. It [15:57] goes back to his Muslim Brotherhood [15:59] background. [16:01] Uh his desire to recreate in some form [16:04] the the Ottoman Empire, [16:06] uh you know, with him as the caliph. [16:08] That That is a real aspiration. [16:12] Um and it and it uh and it connects to [16:14] how he's trying to build his coalition [16:16] heading into heading into 2028. [16:19] But, here's the thing. [16:20] These two explanations that it's a [16:22] deflection play because of his crashing [16:24] economy and that it's a real aspiration [16:27] uh that his hatred of Israel reflects a [16:29] real strategic aspiration, these are not [16:31] mutually exclusive. They can both be [16:33] true at the same time. [16:34] The posture is cheap enough to work as a [16:37] distraction, meaning the the anti-Israel [16:40] rhetoric and posture is cheap enough to [16:43] work as a distraction from a from a [16:45] miserable economy, [16:47] but it and it can simultaneously serve [16:49] as a genuine ideological project, right? [16:51] Erdogan doesn't have to choose between [16:53] the two. That's what makes [16:54] uh this worth doing for him [16:57] rather than being just a short-term [16:59] stunt. [17:01] And I wouldn't expect the rhetoric to [17:03] quiet down just because the the economic [17:05] numbers are bad. If anything, we could [17:06] expect the rhetoric to ratchet up [17:08] because the econo- the economic numbers [17:10] are so bad. [17:11] So, where does this all lead us? Where [17:13] do we go from here? So, here's a few [17:15] concrete things that I'm watching that [17:17] we'll be keeping an eye on here on this [17:18] channel. First, [17:20] there's a sovereign credit review from [17:23] S&P coming up. That's one of the major [17:25] agencies that grades a country's [17:27] creditworthiness. [17:29] The same way a credit score works for an [17:31] individual. So, if Turkey's credit [17:33] score, if it's if it's its grade, its [17:37] sovereign credit grades slips, that [17:41] means that borrowing will get more [17:42] expensive across the board [17:45] just as they're trying to refinance that [17:47] 101.8 billion I mentioned in debt that [17:50] they have to refinance every year. [17:53] The second thing to watch for is the [17:55] Central Bank's interest rate decisions. [17:57] Higher interest rates Here here's where [17:59] they're stuck. Higher interest rates [18:01] help defend the currency, but they choke [18:03] off growth at home. [18:05] And that's a trade-off that they're [18:07] stuck managing right now. The third [18:09] thing I want to look for is [18:12] and this one might matter the most [18:15] is um [18:16] is that Turkey has a fuel tax built into [18:21] every liter of gas at the pump. Many [18:23] Many countries do. Most countries do. [18:26] Uh you know, it's like the gas tax in [18:28] the United States. [18:29] Now, back in March [18:32] when oil prices spiked because of the [18:34] the initial stages of the Iran war, the [18:36] Turkish government made a move. Instead [18:39] of letting the full price increase hit [18:42] the drivers, [18:43] hit the consumer, they started cutting [18:46] their gas tax [18:48] by a matching amount. So, that when the [18:50] world price of oil goes up, the [18:52] government gave up some of its own tax [18:55] revenue [18:56] so that the price at the pump didn't go [18:58] up by nearly as much as it as it should [19:00] have. They It was a basically a trick. [19:02] The government Again, the government [19:03] rolled back some of the of the gas tax [19:05] so the consumer didn't experience such a [19:08] such a price hike. But, [snorts] it [19:09] meant that they They foregoing a lot of [19:11] tax revenue. [19:13] Okay? [19:15] And it was built as a temporary war [19:17] shock buffer. [19:19] As the the way the government decided on [19:21] it. [19:22] And and the government has already [19:24] published the exit ramp that through the [19:26] end of July, which just ended, they were [19:28] covering half of any price increase. And [19:31] right now through the end of September, [19:33] they're only covering a quarter of the [19:34] price increase. And on October 1st, the [19:37] whole thing ends completely and it goes [19:39] back to full price. They're not going to [19:40] be subsidizing the gas tax. [19:43] Uh there's going to be no cushion at [19:45] ever. So whatever oil is doing, whatever [19:47] the price of oil is doing in the world [19:48] at that moment will hit Turkish drivers [19:51] directly all at once. Now this also [19:53] feeds into why Turkey has been so [19:55] adamantly on the side [19:58] uh or as part of the coalition that's [20:00] trying to get America to back off and [20:02] stop and and and stop the war [20:06] because they just want they just want [20:08] prices cuz every time there's a stop up [20:10] in hostilities, the price of gas and and [20:12] the price of oil falls and that directly [20:14] affects this whole calculation. [20:17] And the reason that you know, the reason [20:19] that Turkey uh [20:22] the reason that Turkey has to end this [20:24] you you cuz you might ask yourself, you [20:25] know, why don't they just uh [20:29] why don't they just [20:30] you know, keep the you know, the subsidy [20:33] on the gas tax going? [20:35] Why do they have to phase it out? Why do [20:36] they have to end it by October 1st? [20:38] Well, [20:40] they've been giving up uh like 240 [20:42] million lira a day in tax revenue. [20:44] That's about $5 million [20:46] in tax revenue every single day just to [20:48] keep this thing going. [20:50] And their budget is already stretched [20:52] from everything else that we just talked [20:53] about. So they're getting squeezed from [20:55] all angles. So October 1st is the [20:57] deadline on the calendar for a price [20:59] shock where suddenly gas prices are [21:01] going to be much higher in Turkey. [21:04] And uh and and and the tensions with [21:07] Israel between Israel and Turkey are not [21:09] going to go away. So we're going to [21:11] watch this. So the bottom line is this. [21:13] Okay, let's sum up everything in this [21:14] video and we'll bring it to a close. [21:16] Turkey ranks third worst [21:19] in world in the world on economic [21:20] misery. That's the index that combines [21:23] uh [21:24] inflation rate and unemployment rate. [21:26] Worse than a lot I mean like all I mean [21:29] third worst in the world. Think of all [21:31] the horrible economies in the world. [21:33] Third worst in the world, Turkey. We [21:35] think of them as much stronger. They're [21:36] not. [21:37] Okay? Third worst in the world on [21:39] economic misery. Its central bank has [21:42] been burning reserves to defend its [21:43] currency that which is not sustainable. [21:45] It cannot continue much longer. They're [21:47] not going to keep being able to sell off [21:49] millions [21:50] of uh of uh of of of dollars and foreign [21:54] currency and all this gold. They're not [21:55] going to be able to do that. [21:57] The private sector is sitting on the [21:59] largest currency exposure it's had in 8 [22:01] years. [22:03] And it's got over 100 billion dollars in [22:05] debt that needs refinancing [22:08] on the good faith of investors who are [22:10] watching all of this just as closely or [22:12] more closely than we are here. [22:15] Now none of this makes Turkey harmless. [22:17] Let's be very clear. A cornered economy [22:20] uh [22:22] a wounded animal [22:24] with a leader who needs a win doesn't [22:27] automatically become cautious. [22:30] Sometimes it becomes the opposite. It [22:31] could actually make Turkey more [22:32] dangerous. [22:34] But it does mean that when you hear the [22:36] rhetoric against Israel getting louder, [22:39] the way to look at it is not just simply [22:41] to say, "Wow, Erdogan's Erdogan really [22:43] hates us." But let's think more more [22:45] broadly. [22:46] It's you have to ask yourself, "What can [22:48] Turkey actually afford to do about about [22:51] it?" Meaning how much bite is there to [22:53] the bark? They have so much I mean their [22:55] economy is so fragile as it is for them [22:58] to go to war and risk who knows what uh [23:01] is not something that we could that that [23:02] we can expect to happen. [23:04] Okay, thanks for watching. Please [23:06] comment and uh and and share this video [23:09] and uh tell others about what we're [23:11] doing on the channel. Um you know, let [23:13] me know where you're watching from. I [23:14] noticed in in some of the comments, [23:15] people will mention where they're [23:16] watching from and it really I find it uh [23:19] you know, really amazing. We have people [23:20] watching from all over the world. I'd [23:21] love to hear where you're from. [23:23] And uh [23:24] and thank you so much uh you know, for [23:26] commenting, for sharing, for liking, for [23:28] subscribing. Make sure you are [23:29] subscribed. Make sure you're subscribed [23:31] to Israel 365 News YouTube channel. [23:33] There are interviews and other content [23:36] that that I'm putting up there that [23:37] we're doing all week long and you don't [23:39] want to miss that stuff. Uh so, make [23:41] sure that you're subscribed to the [23:42] Israel 365 News YouTube channel as well [23:45] as this one. There's a lot happening in [23:46] the region. And I think videos like this [23:48] are important to give us a a [23:50] a broader sense. Sometimes there's [23:52] things that don't necessarily make the [23:53] big headline, but they matter a lot to [23:56] what we're seeing uh in in the Middle [23:58] East. All right. God bless.
