Transcript [00:00] In this video, we're going to play a [00:01] game. And the game is called Where's [00:04] Moshtaba? [snorts] Is he alive? Is he [00:07] dead? Is he in Iran? Where is Moshtaba, [00:10] the Iranian Supreme Leader? Just to just [00:12] in case you've been living under a rock [00:14] for the last few months. On February [00:16] 28th when this war began, when the [00:19] Americans and the Israelis started [00:20] striking Iran, they killed the Supreme [00:22] Leader Ali Kami and they killed a lot of [00:24] his family members. And Moshabi has not [00:27] been seen since. And there's all kinds [00:28] of rumors. Did he get injured? How bad [00:30] was he badly injured? Was he killed? [00:32] They claim he's not killed. He's alive. [00:33] He's now the supreme leader. But he's [00:35] not been seen in public ever since. And [00:38] he has not even released a video [00:40] statement. And as I've pointed out in a [00:42] recent video and also in a recent column [00:44] in the Jerusalem Post, his father, Ali, [00:47] even when for security reasons he would [00:49] go underground, he would still release [00:51] video messages. And Mushaba has not done [00:52] that. So my speculation over the course [00:54] of the last couple weeks has been maybe [00:57] he's dead. and others have speculated [00:59] the same thing. On the other hand, [01:00] there's some people who know a lot more [01:01] than I do in the intelligence community [01:03] who disagree. We're going to get into [01:04] all of that. That's what this video is [01:07] about. We're going to look at some [01:08] recent news items that speak to this [01:10] issue. So, let's take a look. Let's get [01:12] right into it. Here's the first headline [01:14] and this is from when is this from? This [01:18] is from July 21st, yesterday. Here we [01:20] go. Iran's Aragshi admits six-member [01:22] committee led nuclear talks said he [01:25] never met Kamayi. [01:27] A sixperson subcommittee in the supreme [01:29] national security council was behind the [01:32] on the spot decisions made while [01:34] negotiating the now defunct memorandum [01:36] of understanding with the United States. [01:39] Iran's foreign minister Abbasar Rajshi [01:41] told Assiran admitting that he has never [01:44] met Iran supreme leader Mosha Kaban he's [01:46] the foreign minister. He was [01:48] negotiating. He said he's never met him. [01:50] Experts have frequently called into [01:51] question the role of Kamayi, who has not [01:54] been seen since being injured in the [01:56] same attack that killed his predecessor, [01:58] his father, Ayatah Ali Kamay, in [02:00] February. [02:02] In the new Kamei's absence, global [02:05] analysts and commentators have [02:07] increasingly looked towards Parliament [02:09] Speaker Muhammad Bagar Galibbah and IRGC [02:12] commander Ahmmed Vahidi as the minds [02:16] behind Tehran's trajectory. Now, Galabaf [02:18] and Vidi are all buddies from the IRGC [02:21] days. They're really part of the same [02:23] IRGC faction. quote, "There was a [02:26] six-member committee consisting of [02:28] people like the president, Khalibah, the [02:31] secretary of the Supreme National [02:33] Security Council, and myself who made [02:35] decisions for the negotiations on the [02:37] spot because it was difficult to [02:40] communicate with the top," Aragshi [02:42] admitted. The foreign minister added, "I [02:44] have not seen Mr. Moshava so far, and I [02:48] don't think anyone else has seen him in [02:50] the current era except for a few people. [02:54] He was always considered one of the most [02:56] worthy leaders and the final decision [02:58] was made by the assembly of experts. His [03:00] election showed the world that there has [03:02] been no change in the ideals and [03:04] principles of the Islamic Republic and [03:06] there will be no change. Now I'm going [03:09] to read between the lines here. It's [03:10] very interesting because first he talks [03:12] about he starts off saying I've never [03:14] seen him and very few people have ever [03:15] seen him. And then what does he say? [03:19] that his election [03:21] shows [03:23] the world that there's been no change in [03:25] the ideals and principles of the [03:27] republic of the Islamic Republic and [03:28] there won't be which leads me to believe [03:31] that that was actually the only reason [03:34] he was chosen. That's what he's [03:36] basically saying here. He's saying [03:37] that's why he was chosen to send that [03:39] message. And in the same breath as he's [03:42] talking about the fact that he's never [03:44] seen him and that all the decisions were [03:46] really being made by the six by these [03:48] six people who never talked to him, what [03:51] he's letting out of the bag is that he's [03:54] not really the leader. The only reason [03:56] they announced that he's the new leader [03:58] and officially named him the new leader [04:00] was to send this message that there are [04:03] no that there is no change in the ideals [04:05] and principles of the Islamic Republic. [04:07] That's what I think it all really means. [04:10] Okay. Okay. And then we have this from [04:12] Al Monitor, the Middle East leading [04:14] independent news source since 2012. [04:16] Interaction with Iran's injured Supreme [04:18] Leader increasing daily. President says [04:20] this is also from yesterday. The level [04:23] of interaction with Iran Supreme Leader [04:25] is increasing day by day. Iranian [04:27] President Masud Peshan said in a video [04:30] clip published on state media on [04:32] Tuesday, yesterday. His remarks follow [04:35] months of speculation about the health [04:37] of Supreme Leader Moshabi, who has not [04:40] been seen in public since the air strike [04:42] that killed his father and predecessor [04:44] Ali Kay at the start of the war. The [04:45] quote, "The interaction level with our [04:47] dear Supreme Leader is increasing day by [04:50] day and should increase so that we can [04:54] solve our problems with his guidance." [04:58] Shakan said, "Mosha suffered severe [05:01] facial and leg injuries. in the February [05:04] 28th attack. Severe facial and leg [05:08] injuries. What's a severe leg injury? [05:12] Does he have legs? What happened here? [05:15] Three people close to his inner circle [05:17] told Reuters back in April. And then we [05:20] had this from uh from from a few days [05:23] ago from Sunday. Saudi outlet citing [05:26] Israeli source claims new supreme leader [05:29] Mosha Bahami not in Iran. An Israeli [05:33] security source cited by the Saudi [05:35] Al-Hadath outlet says Iranian leader [05:38] Mosha Bakami is not in Iran. Kamayi who [05:40] was appointed Supreme Leader shortly [05:42] after his father was killed. He hasn't [05:44] made any public appearances. The source [05:45] tells al-Had that Kamay's messages are [05:49] written by new Islamic Revolutionary [05:51] Guard Corps chief Ahmmed Vay that he's [05:54] the one writing. So this source said [05:56] that Ahmed Vid is the one writing the [05:58] written messages from Kamayi and other [06:01] members of the IRGC. Quote, Iran's [06:04] internal divisions are deep and threaten [06:06] the existence of the Islamic [06:07] Revolutionary Guard Corps. The source is [06:09] cited as saying. The Israeli source also [06:11] says that the US does not want Israel to [06:13] participate in strikes in Iran even if [06:15] tan uh attacks Israel. Fine, that's not [06:18] relevant to our topic. So, here's an [06:20] Israeli source quoted in a Saudi media [06:23] outlet. However, [06:25] Israel, this came out then um [06:30] this came out the next day. The very [06:32] next day, Israel rejects reports Kame [06:35] fled Iran. Quote, he is wounded and [06:38] giving orders. Israeli security [06:40] officials say Iran's new supreme leader [06:41] remains inside the country after [06:44] surviving an assassination attempt but [06:46] describe him as weakened, concealed, and [06:49] increasingly dependent on Revolutionary [06:51] Guard commander Ahmmed Vidi. [06:54] Let me say something about Ahmed Vid. U [06:57] we should do a separate video about [06:58] Ahmad Va considering that it's becoming [07:01] increasingly clear that he's the guy [07:02] calling the shots and he's the person we [07:04] see out of the three big names we hear [07:06] about all the time, four big names. [07:08] There's Peshakahan, the president who [07:10] doesn't have any real power. There's [07:12] Aragi, the foreign minister. There's [07:14] Galibbah, the speaker. We see that guy [07:17] all the time. And then there's Vay. Ved [07:20] is the one we see less. [07:22] We see least. And he might be the most [07:25] powerful right now. [07:27] And uh I think it it would be important [07:29] to discuss him. But [07:32] at this point, I just want to say this. [07:34] They're saying that the official line of [07:38] the Iranian regime is that the reason [07:39] that Moshaba did not attend the funeral [07:41] is for security reasons because they [07:43] were worried that the Israelis would [07:45] take him out. [07:47] But you know who did attend the funeral [07:49] and was there in public? Ahmed Vid. And [07:52] the Israelis know that Ahmed Vid is the [07:54] guy running the shots. He's the head of [07:55] the IRGC. Why wasn't he afraid to show [07:58] his face in public? [08:00] Just just asking questions. [08:03] My point being that it was not for [08:05] security reasons. They weren't afraid to [08:07] have the top people show their faces in [08:09] public at the funeral. They didn't they [08:10] didn't really honestly think the [08:12] Israelis were going to carry out strikes [08:15] of any kind, assassinations at that [08:18] funeral. [08:19] It's it's it's not believable. In any [08:22] event, let's take a look at what's in [08:24] this report. There's a lot in this [08:25] article. It's a long article. I pulled [08:26] out some excerpts and thanks to our uh [08:30] I've mentioned this before. I have great [08:31] gratitude to one of our viewers who told [08:33] me about this Chrome extension that I [08:34] could put uh um that I could highlight [08:38] pieces of articles and we're using it. [08:40] I'm using it all the time now. A series [08:42] of conflicting reports about the [08:43] condition and whereabouts of Iran's new [08:45] Supreme Leader Mosi has raised questions [08:48] over who is actually making decisions in [08:50] Tehran and how much authority he [08:52] exercises over the Islamic Republic. The [08:55] controversy began after a Saudi [08:57] broadcaster, oh, I'm sorry, after Saudi [09:00] broadcaster Al-Hadat cited what is [09:03] described as an Israeli security source [09:06] claiming the Kamayi was no longer in [09:08] Iran. The report, which was widely [09:10] repeated in Israeli media, also alleged [09:14] that statements and directives [09:15] attributed to him were in fact being [09:17] drafted by IRGC commander Ahmed Vidi and [09:20] other senior officials. Israeli [09:23] officials familiar with the intelligence [09:24] reject that account. So here's let's [09:26] follow the plot. A Saudi news outlet [09:29] said that an Israeli source said that [09:32] Moshaba's out of the country. Israeli [09:34] news outlets then then started echoing [09:37] that but they only heard it from the [09:38] Saudi outlet and then Israeli officials [09:42] familiar with the intelligence said that [09:44] that's false. [09:46] According to [09:48] According to information held by Israel, [09:51] Kamayi is alive, wounded, [09:54] and remains inside Iran. One security [09:58] official said he continues to issue [09:59] instructions despite his injuries and [10:02] that senior figures in Thran are still [10:04] awaiting his decisions. Quote, "He's [10:07] wounded, he's alive, and he continues to [10:08] give orders." The official said in Iran, [10:11] they are still waiting for his position [10:12] and his instructions. [10:15] Kamayi has not appeared in public since [10:17] he was since he was injured [10:20] since he was injured during the opening [10:22] strike of operation lion's roar in which [10:24] his father former Supreme Leader Ali was [10:27] killed. Since then all his public [10:28] statements have been issued in writing. [10:31] Quote Moshaba is in Iran. The official [10:33] said he's wounded and he's very weak. [10:35] He's a very weak figure [10:38] who is being managed by Vedi. They're [10:40] deliberately building a sense of mystery [10:42] around him. But the truth is that va [10:44] writes everything for him. He's not [10:46] really an important figure [10:49] now. Uh so [10:53] what do we make of all of that? But look [10:55] at this. Oh, I forgot to highlight this, [10:57] but this is really important. [11:00] The uncertainty has fueled competing [11:02] information campaigns. [11:05] Some Israeli officials, this is so [11:08] interesting, some Israeli officials [11:10] believe that the report that Kamayi had [11:12] left Iran may have been a trial balloon [11:15] or part of the psychological warfare [11:19] between Israel and the Islamic Republic. [11:22] By spreading uncertainty over his [11:25] location and condition, each side can [11:28] test reactions inside Iran and among its [11:31] allies. In other words, if if the [11:33] Iranians want want to see how [11:37] destabilizing in it and what is the [11:39] reaction of the people going to be if it [11:41] gets out that he's not around. Maybe [11:43] they were behind it. Maybe the Israelis [11:46] were trying to test the reactions and [11:48] see if this could you know poke some you [11:51] you know bring some cracks in the [11:53] regime. Kind of like what I was [11:55] suggesting that I was saying, hey, the [11:56] Americans should demand signs of life. [11:58] This is all part of the psychological [12:00] warfare surrounding [12:02] surrounding the you know the position of [12:04] supreme leader and how the people of [12:07] Iran will react if it comes out that [12:10] they don't really have a supreme leader. [12:13] Russia [12:15] meanwhile may become the first country [12:18] to establish direct international [12:20] contact with the younger kamayi. [12:23] Russia's TAS news agency citing an [12:26] Iranian source reported that Kamayi [12:29] could soon hold a telephone call or even [12:32] a meeting with Russian President [12:34] Vladimir Putin. [12:36] The Iranian source, so it was Russia's [12:40] TAS news agency citing an Iranian [12:42] source. The Iranian source repeated the [12:44] claim that Kamay's absence from public [12:46] view was due to the military situation [12:49] and security considerations. Any first [12:52] conversation with Putin would carry [12:53] significant symbolic weight. It would [12:56] signal that Thran continues to regard [12:58] Moscow as a central strategic partner [13:01] during its leadership transition and [13:03] amid continuing military pressure. It [13:05] could also provide Kamayi with an [13:07] opportunity to demonstrate that he [13:09] remains Iran's recognized head of state [13:12] even while refusing to appear publicly. [13:14] Until such contact occurs, [13:18] uncertainty is likely to persist. [13:22] Israeli officials say that available [13:25] intelligence indicates that Kamayi is [13:27] alive, remains inside Iran, and [13:29] continues to participate in [13:30] decision-making under heavy security [13:33] restrictions. [13:35] At the same time, they assess that his [13:37] personal authority has been [13:38] significantly weakened and that the IRGC [13:42] is strengthening its grip over the [13:44] regime. [13:46] Now, let me say something about this [13:48] possible conversation with Putin [13:52] or a possible meeting with Putin. If [13:54] this happens [13:56] and we are only told about it by the [13:59] Russians or by the Iranians or both and [14:02] Putin says he spoke to Mosha and [14:04] therefore we should all rest assured [14:06] that the guy's alive, I'm not going to [14:08] buy it. Let's remember the Russians have [14:10] been helping Iran non-stop even since [14:13] the ceasefire. They've I I've talked [14:16] about this on this channel that their [14:17] their nuclear uh uh uh scientists have, [14:22] you know, and their people working on [14:23] constructing a nuclear reactor have [14:25] moved back into Iran. The Americans just [14:27] bombed that site the other day, but [14:29] they're trying to help them build a a [14:31] domestic, you know, for domestic use, a [14:33] nuclear reactor. They're uh they're [14:36] taking orders for weapons and airplanes [14:38] from Iran. They're working with Iran. [14:40] They want to help Iran. [14:43] And I could totally see a situation [14:45] where Vaid picks up the phone to Putin [14:47] and says, "Hey, hey, look man, we need [14:49] to stage a meeting between you and [14:51] Moshaba, you need to claim that you [14:52] spoke to him. You need to work with us [14:55] here." He would do it. So, what I'm [14:57] saying is that even if there's a [14:59] purported phone call between Putin and [15:01] Moshaba, it it won't change my uh [15:07] my suspicion, my skepticism that he's [15:09] either that he's not functioning and [15:12] he's not really in charge. That's what [15:14] I'm saying. Last point here, look at [15:16] this. Iran Supreme Leader Mush rejected [15:20] a meeting with Iraqi PM Ali Al Zedi. He [15:24] rejected a meeting with him. Ali al- [15:26] Zahedi, that's the new prime minister of [15:28] Iraq, the guy who visited President [15:30] Trump last week, right? And I made a [15:33] video yesterday about the Iraq Iran [15:35] relationship. And we know the the [15:36] Iranians are very concerned about losing [15:38] their hold on Iraq and and um [15:43] and the and the and the new Iraqi prime [15:45] minister, the new Iraqi prime minister [15:48] aledi is trying to get the Iranian [15:51] influence out of Iraq, but he's also a [15:54] Shiite and and his and the Shiite block [15:56] that brought him to power needs to be [15:58] satisfied also. It's a very delicate [16:00] situation and Moshabi rejected a meeting [16:03] with him. Al Zahedi met with Trump this [16:06] past week at the White House and and [16:07] well-informed sources claim he's [16:09] carrying a verbal message from Trump [16:12] addressed to the Iranian leadership and [16:13] he wants to deliver that message to the [16:15] Supreme Leader. Iran completely ruled [16:17] out the possibility of such a meeting [16:19] apparently due to strict security [16:21] protocols but Israeli sources claim [16:23] Moshabahi is not actually inside Iranian [16:26] territory at all. That's that's Mario [16:29] Nafal here is he's citing that that that [16:33] report in Alcad in the Saudi report from [16:37] Israeli sources. It's not as we saw the [16:39] Israelis walk that back. Al Zedi's state [16:42] visit to Tehran is officially scheduled [16:45] for next Thursday. Interesting. So he is [16:47] going to be visiting Thran next Thursday [16:49] but the Ayatollah won't be in [16:50] attendance. [16:52] So folks, the bottom line is this. [16:57] the Moshaba issue is starting to be [16:59] talked about more. I think that's a good [17:02] thing. I think it's good that we talk [17:03] about it. I think it's good that it [17:05] starts getting raised because this stuff [17:07] filters through to the Iranian people [17:08] and the more doubt there can be that [17:10] there's actually a supreme leader uh the [17:13] better because this all is part of of [17:17] the psychological warfare. See, the [17:19] Iranian people will will be more [17:23] inclined to take to the streets if they [17:24] see that the regime is weak, is [17:27] destabilized. You saw what Abasari said [17:30] that the reason he basically said that [17:31] the reason that that Moshaba was chosen [17:33] was to send the message that nothing's [17:35] changed, stability, continuity. [17:39] If he's dead or incapacitated, [17:42] that changes everything. It also freaks [17:44] out all the Shiites who are true [17:46] believers because there's no supreme [17:48] leader and they're being lied to. So, [17:50] there's a lot there's a lot at stake in [17:52] this conversation about Moshaba. It's [17:54] not just a fun game of of where's Mosha, [17:56] but uh yeah, we're going to be watching [17:59] this very very closely in the coming [18:01] days. Thanks for watching. Thanks for uh [18:04] for being a part of this channel. I [18:05] really appreciate all of you. Please [18:07] drop a comment. Let me know what you [18:08] think of what what we're doing here. I [18:10] try to read as many comments as possible [18:12] and sometimes I I gain a lot uh and and [18:14] learn some new things from uh you know [18:16] from you. So thank you very much for [18:18] that and uh and please you know share [18:20] this video with someone who who you [18:22] think might find it interesting. That [18:23] would be very helpful to me. Easy to do. [18:25] God bless.
