Transcript [00:00] add another element to why this is so [00:03] historic because since October 7th, [00:06] Israel's role has basically been [00:08] confronting a lot of terrorist [00:09] organizations throughout the region, [00:12] including the Islamic Republic regime in [00:14] Iran. And now so many people across this [00:18] part of the world are looking towards [00:19] Israel to see what is going to come out [00:22] at the end of this result. Are we going [00:24] to see a new coalition under the current [00:27] Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin [00:28] Netanyahu? Or are we going to be seeing [00:31] a different prime minister with a whole [00:34] new coalition? Or is it a combo? I don't [00:37] know. We're going to be talking about [00:39] all of this. We're going to be trying to [00:41] understand what those elections mean [00:44] today. What are the numbers that are [00:46] going to come out? Um, of course, we're [00:48] going to be showing you the exit polls [00:51] that are going to be coming up in around [00:53] an hour from now. Um, and we're going to [00:56] have people from the ground. They're in [00:58] Israel right now actually from the [01:00] polling stations going to cover for us [01:02] and with us. They're going to be sharing [01:04] what is happening. How do people feel [01:07] after exiting um the voting stations? [01:11] What is the morale? What are people [01:12] saying? What are they sharing? And of [01:15] course, Dan Feerman, my co-founder, [01:17] co-editor of chief of Middle East 24. [01:20] He's also going to be sharing his [01:21] assessment about the numbers that we're [01:24] seeing, what does that mean? And we're [01:26] going to have a lineup of amazing guests [01:29] for you from Israel and actually from [01:32] other parts of the Middle East, North [01:33] Africa. As I said, these elections are [01:36] historic because they are [01:39] transformative. [01:40] um I I believe to the entire Middle [01:42] East, Israel and its neighbors, giving [01:46] Israel's very historic role uh in the [01:49] region combined confronting terrorist [01:51] organizations like Hezbollah, Hamas, the [01:54] Islamic Republic regime of Iran itself. [01:57] A lot of minorities are looking towards [01:58] Israel for protection giving what has [02:01] happened in in different countries [02:02] across the region. We will talk about [02:04] all of this. So much to unpack. So stay [02:06] tuned. We're going to be coming to you [02:09] with a lot more. Um, now we're waiting [02:12] for more of our audience to join and we [02:15] want to encourage you to follow us on [02:18] our social media platforms ex Instagram, [02:20] Facebook, but also subscribe to our [02:22] YouTube channel. We have a lot of [02:25] exclusive content coming to you right [02:27] from across the Middle East, North [02:29] Africa. things that you would not see [02:31] anywhere else on social media or on um [02:34] traditional media as well as we actually [02:38] have a newsletter. We want you guys to [02:41] come in and sign up to our new [02:43] newsletter where you will have not only [02:45] everything that we're covering. We're [02:47] going to be updating you with all of the [02:48] latest updates from our own content from [02:51] our latest coverage, but also you will [02:53] get exclusive content that only our [02:56] subscribers in the newsletter will get. [02:58] So, I recommend for you guys, really [03:00] highly recommend to come in and actually [03:03] go to our website and here you're going [03:04] to share the link with you right now to [03:07] subscribe to our newsletter. So much [03:09] more that we want to cover. Then you [03:12] want to jump in as we are of course [03:14] going to be joining um our uh audience [03:16] with our first guest, but let's kind of [03:18] I want to hear how you're feeling right [03:21] now. Did you vote? When did you vote? [03:22] Tell me tell me more. I didn't get to [03:24] talk to you as much today. We've got a [03:26] lot to talk about as as we're going live [03:27] here. We're just making sure that we are [03:29] live on both ME24 platform, Visagrad's [03:32] platform, and uh our partner um for this [03:37] event, we should be live with Israel [03:38] 365, which is an excellent platform that [03:41] focuses on Israel as we're talking about [03:42] the Israeli elections. And so we should [03:45] be live for the audiences of all three [03:47] platforms, Visrad 24, who's joining us [03:50] from all over the world, Israel 365, and [03:52] of course the Middle East 24 community. [03:55] And as you said, you know, I'm just [03:56] making sure we've got all the technical [03:58] issues in place here and making sure [04:00] that our producers here. So, the the [04:02] first thing that uh we do want to give a [04:04] couple shoutouts tonight. As I said, [04:05] Israel 365 is our partner platform and [04:07] we should be we should be live on on [04:10] their YouTube community. So, welcome to [04:12] all of the Israel 365 community. And [04:14] please jump over to Middle East 24 on uh [04:17] on YouTube. We're on X. We're on uh um [04:20] we're on [04:21] >> Instagram, Facebook. [04:22] >> Instagram. Facebook. Sorry, Facebook. [04:24] Make sure you follow us there. Also want [04:25] to give a shout out to the Pekk, which [04:27] in Hebrew means the the voting slip [04:29] because they are going to be providing [04:30] us with up-to-date um polling results as [04:34] the the polls will be coming in here. Uh [04:36] there we go. There's the Pekk the [04:38] polling results. And so this is also in [04:39] collaboration with the Pekk who uh [04:42] provides up todate political analysis [04:44] and content for English speaking [04:46] audiences around the world. And um one [04:50] more thing you mentioned the newsletter [04:51] Havy, that's super important. People can [04:53] jump over to any of our platforms, [04:54] including our landing page, middle [04:56] east24.org. And please, please subscribe [04:58] to our newsletter, guys. We're going to [05:00] have um so much original content that is [05:02] already coming out and more exciting [05:04] original shows that are coming out, [05:05] taking you into the heart of uh Iranian [05:08] dissident and uh kind of live question [05:11] and answer shows and the great show that [05:13] Hav and I host, Middle East Breakdown, [05:15] and our weekly news show. And we've got [05:17] more shows coming out. It's been really [05:20] crazy and exciting uh here. [05:22] >> Yes. [05:23] >> And to our audience. And um [05:25] >> voter turnout is higher than it has been [05:27] in 40 years. [05:29] >> Historic, right? [05:30] >> Historic. Absolutely historic. Which [05:31] mean And by the way, it's across the [05:33] board. It's from the coalition. It's [05:36] from the opposition. It's from the Arab [05:38] sector. More people are turning out to [05:40] vote than ever before because people [05:42] understand that this is a historic and [05:44] critical election. Um, and excuse me. [05:48] Um, I've been I've been on TV on [05:50] different platforms all day, so kind of [05:52] losing my voice there. [05:53] >> Um, but people understand the historic [05:55] nature of this election. And you know, I [05:58] went to the the polling booth a little [05:59] later in the day. Um, but it's it's [06:01] lively [06:03] >> and there is an air of it's a civic [06:05] holiday, right? First of all, people get [06:07] the day off from work to go vote and you [06:10] can vote near your house and and people [06:12] understand that it's a lot's at stake [06:13] here. Um, and before we do, I just [06:16] wanted to just say one thing before we [06:19] jump going here. I'm just looking [06:20] forward [06:20] >> and I actually have some things that I [06:22] would like to share about this [06:24] elections. Um, you know, like I said and [06:27] Dan just said, these are historic [06:28] elections. They're the first since [06:30] October 7th, 2023. Um, and of course, [06:33] the war that we've been seeing and [06:35] witnessing with the Islamic Republic [06:37] regime of Iran and its proxies across [06:40] the region. This is a continuation of [06:43] this war that was launched on October [06:45] 7th um with the attack by Hamas against [06:48] Israel. About 7.3 million Israelis are [06:51] voting today, choosing among 36 parties [06:55] for the 120 seat Knesset. The main uh [06:59] basically contestants are Prime Minister [07:01] Benjamin Netanyahu who led the country [07:03] through the war with the Islamic [07:05] Republic regime of Iran against the [07:07] former IDF now um Chief Gaddy uh Eisenot [07:12] um to govern. Basically there's we need [07:14] around 61 seats um from any of the [07:19] parties that will be um you know kind of [07:21] getting 61 seats. The final polls had [07:24] neither side so far. Uh the last polls [07:27] that actually were released Friday, [07:30] Yashar had 22 to 23 seats. Liku 19 to 21 [07:36] and Bay 14 to 15. Uh by block [07:40] Netanyahu's camp at 50 in the three main [07:44] channels polls, the Zionist opposition [07:46] 52 to 56 and the Arabled parties which [07:49] is another interesting story here is [07:51] about 14. Channel 14's poll though said [07:54] that Prime Minister Netanyahu's uh camp [07:57] is at 62. So polls closed at [08:00] >> the polls are gonna you know what we're [08:02] going to know more and we want to bring [08:03] on our first guest soon. But before we [08:06] do before we bring on our first guest [08:08] and we're going to have a bunch of [08:08] amazing guests for you throughout the [08:10] night. Um before we do, we just want to [08:12] tell you about a really cool raffle. So [08:13] if any of you have any kind of [08:15] connection to Israel, you like Israel, [08:17] you live in Israel, you visit Israel, [08:19] whatever, we're talking about the [08:19] Israeli elections here. So, as part of [08:21] our collaboration with Israel 365, we [08:24] want to tell you about the Dream Raffle. [08:26] This is an annual raffle where you can [08:27] buy tickets um for it's about $25 a [08:30] ticket or you can buy more tickets. The [08:32] more you buy, the more you have a chance [08:33] to win. [08:34] >> And everything goes to really really [08:36] good causes such as ambulances and [08:38] supporting farmers and, you know, food [08:40] for the needy and excellent causes. The [08:42] winner of this raffle, and it's called [08:44] the Amis Alhai, the the long live the [08:47] people of Israel raffle, can win a $1.3 [08:51] million luxury apartment in Jerusalem, [08:53] and you can buy multiple tickets. You [08:55] can have a better chance to win. There [08:56] is a [08:56] >> Can I sign in? [08:57] >> You can sign in. Everyone can sign in. [08:59] I'm thinking about doing it myself. So, [09:01] if you go um to any of our platforms, [09:04] Middle East 24's platforms, producer, [09:06] put that ticket back up. Put the the [09:08] link back up. And if you go to the dream [09:11] raffle, you will have a link there um on [09:13] all of our pages to go in and sign and [09:15] buy a ticket. All of the proceeds go to [09:17] really really good humanitarian causes [09:19] here. And if you win, you get a $1.3 [09:22] million luxury apartment in the heart of [09:24] Jerusalem. Ay, what do you say we go to? [09:26] >> Until when until when do we have to to [09:29] kind of join the raffle? [09:31] >> Well, let's let's see if people do this [09:32] throughout the night. U but they have [09:34] they have a few days to do this. [09:36] >> Let's see if people go in throughout the [09:38] night to push this. And this is a [09:39] fundraiser um for really really good [09:42] causes here in Israel that we're doing [09:43] together with Israel 365, one of our [09:46] broadcast partners. You know, our first [09:47] guest tonight, our first guest tonight, [09:49] Hav is an excellent political analyst. [09:51] Uh producer, let's bring in Ariel [09:53] Whitman, our first guest tonight. [09:56] Where is Ariel? Let's bring him on [09:59] stage. [10:00] >> Ariel, how are you? [10:02] >> Oh, hi. I didn't realize you were [10:04] letting me in. Hi. [10:05] >> We we let you in. So, Ariel, you're our [10:07] first guest tonight. Ariel is a [10:09] journalist, a veteran journalist here in [10:10] Israel, political analyst, and he's the [10:12] host of the excellent The Western Spirit [10:15] podcast, which I've had a pleasure to be [10:17] a guest on. I think Hey, you have as [10:19] well. [10:19] >> Yes. Oh my god. So great to see you, [10:21] Ariel. [10:22] >> Hi. And don't forget, I'm the APE editor [10:25] and a contributor at Globes newspaper [10:27] here. [10:27] >> So the Globes newspaper, for those of [10:29] you who don't know, is an excellent uh [10:31] business and economics uh stock market [10:33] focused uh newspaper in English in [10:35] Israel. Ariel's one of the editors there [10:37] and of course hosts the excellent [10:38] Western Spirit podcast. Ariel, what are [10:40] you thinking about? You're watching the [10:42] the you know, obviously this insane [10:44] election cycle and you're assuming you [10:47] went to vote today. [10:48] >> Yeah. [10:48] >> What are your thoughts so far today as [10:50] we're about to find out who possibly won [10:52] these elections? [10:53] >> The third the first thought was as I was [10:55] waiting online for about an hour that I [10:58] just remembered four years ago that I [10:59] didn't wait online for I didn't wait [11:01] online at all. Four years ago, I just [11:03] went in, I voted and left. I just looked [11:06] on the central election committee's [11:09] website for my kalpi my uh I guess what [11:13] would you call it the polling station [11:14] where we vote here [11:16] >> and the we're up by like 10% in turnout [11:20] than we were four years ago which is [11:21] insane. [11:23] >> Um by the way the numbers just went down [11:25] as of the um 8:00 I guess numbers. We're [11:29] now breaking the 1988 record and not the [11:32] 69 record. [11:34] We're still breaking record. [11:35] >> 40 year alltime voting record. [11:37] >> Yes. I think we'll probably get around [11:39] 80% it looks like. [11:41] >> Um and and I think when you look at the [11:43] who is actually voting more [11:46] >> um I think that's the real story of this [11:48] election. We're going to see in a few [11:49] hours [11:51] >> um what exactly as the numbers start [11:53] coming in. But I think we can safely say [11:55] that the Israeli Arabs have as Netanyahu [11:58] called Noharim Lalpot are storming the [12:01] ballot boxes. storm rushing to go. [12:04] >> Yeah, we we have the Bedawins in the [12:07] south are in extremely high numbers [12:10] voting. I think this is the first time [12:12] that they've literally allowed women in [12:14] terms of the uh Islamic uh leaders there [12:17] to vote. So there's been a number of [12:20] they I guess they multiplied at that [12:23] point. Uh so you had a 50% more pool of [12:26] voters. Um there we're going to see Ram [12:30] do extremely well. That's Ram's base. [12:32] Mansur Abbas. [12:33] >> Ram's Mansur Abbas. Right. [12:35] >> Yes. The the Islamic the Islamic uh [12:38] movement which is the southern Islamic [12:41] movement, the more consiliatory one, not [12:43] the northern one. [12:44] >> Um and he was in the last coalition. So [12:47] we'll see if Ram gets a lot of votes. [12:50] That'll be key because if we look if the [12:53] Arab vote grows, but it depends which [12:55] Arab party actually gets in. And I think [12:58] that'll be interesting. And another [13:01] interesting story is I guess two more. [13:03] Number one is the ultraorththodox which [13:05] at this point their big cities are [13:08] voting less than they were uh four years [13:11] ago. Not a lot less but when the [13:13] absolute number of votes goes higher [13:15] then each vote is worth less. So uh that [13:18] means that they will be punished at the [13:20] ballot box at least as of now. Now [13:23] there's a conspiracy theory that says [13:24] that ultraorththodox go vote in the last [13:26] hour of the election. We'll see. Um and [13:29] also the left of center people Tel Aviv [13:32] Khifa and um places near me like uh Gat [13:38] Kiratono and other places like that [13:40] their u numbers are unbelievably high. [13:43] So I think what we could learn from that [13:44] is as of now that there is a very large [13:46] anti- Netanyao vote in the center left. [13:49] The Arabs are very angry at Benvir and [13:52] it's motivating them extremely to the [13:55] polls. Um because there was a thought [13:57] that maybe because the joint list all [13:59] the Arab parties come together it makes [14:01] Arabs very happy and proud. That's not [14:03] what's happening because the main Arabs [14:04] that are going to vote are the people [14:07] who are voting for Ram that refuse to be [14:09] in the joint list that didn't want to [14:10] come together with Ahmedibi and um and [14:14] Khadash and Balad and all of these other [14:16] more extremist Arab parties. So we're [14:18] going to see and if the results are more [14:20] or less like what we're hearing and I'm [14:23] it's all like in up. What are we [14:25] hearing? Can you share with us? [14:27] >> I don't know. Well, it's all uh a matter [14:30] of um rumors. We're going to see in [14:32] another 40 minutes, more or less. [14:34] >> But I think it'll be very hard. Just my [14:36] prediction. I'm going on the leash. You [14:39] know, I'm taking a leap of faith. It's [14:40] going to be very hard for Nataniel's [14:42] current coalition to actually stay in [14:45] power. Whatever happens, Nataniel might [14:48] stay the prime minister, but it'll be [14:49] very hard. Also, [14:51] it's will be unbelievably disgusting, by [14:54] the way, if the the parties that will [14:58] get into the Knesset now won't form a [14:59] government and we'll have to go again. [15:01] The amount of people that voted now [15:03] deserve a government. I mean, could you [15:06] imagine that there will be about 6 [15:08] million people if we get to 80% that [15:10] will vote out of a country of 10 million [15:12] and about 8 million people that are that [15:15] have the right to vote. And everyone [15:18] went and waited online and it was [15:20] important to them and people flew in [15:22] from jobs that they had overseas etc. [15:24] And people went from the hospital and [15:26] now we wheelchairs and soldiers in [15:28] Lebanon and in Gaza and people are [15:30] voting at such high numbers and their [15:33] and the politicians won't be able to [15:34] form any coalition. It will be such a [15:38] slap in the face to the Israeli voter [15:40] that it would the Israeli politicians [15:43] are disgusting as it is. But this would [15:46] take it to another level. Like, [15:48] >> well, first I want to ask you like, have [15:50] we ever seen in any I mean, Israel is a [15:51] vibrant democracy, but have you ever [15:53] seen an 80% turnout anywhere else in the [15:55] world? I I don't remember ever seeing [15:57] 80%. [15:59] >> It's pretty high. It's [16:00] >> very historically high, I think, [16:02] worldwide, first of all. [16:04] >> Yes. And by the way, another historic [16:05] thing, if you think about it, usually if [16:07] you look democracies in the West, the [16:09] poor demographics tend to vote less. [16:12] >> In Israel, what's going to happen today? [16:14] The poorest demographic are Bedwins in [16:16] the negative. Like by far [16:19] >> them and the ultraorththodox [16:20] >> and the ultra and they vote in very high [16:22] numbers. [16:22] >> They're gonna vote in extremely high [16:24] numbers. And the ultra [16:25] >> there were videos Ariel. We had videos [16:26] on ME24 on our on our ex channel. People [16:28] want to see of bedwins riding camels to [16:30] the voting. [16:31] >> Yeah. It's unbelievable. [16:33] >> So we're going to break all the records. [16:35] Yeah. [16:35] >> In Israel. Um I want I wanted to ask you [16:38] because like we we're like you just [16:40] mentioned that the people are voting in [16:44] high numbers and and there is this [16:46] passion and it seems that these [16:48] elections are more personal to people. [16:51] Um is it really just like pro- Benjamin [16:54] Netanyahu anti-Benjamin Netanyahu [16:56] elections? Is that what's going on? [16:58] >> A lot of it is. Um I think Dan as [17:00] someone who lives here also can attest [17:02] that Netanyahu the emotions that he um [17:06] brings out of people is something that [17:08] maybe Donald Trump can be comparable in [17:10] a way like if you really love him you [17:12] love him and if you really hate him you [17:15] hate him with a passion. Um and it's [17:18] such a big phenomena that there's [17:19] literal names for it. There's the the [17:22] anti- Nataniel will call Nataniel people [17:24] bim BB's people and then uh the [17:28] Nathaniel people will call anti [17:31] miracul people only [17:34] >> BB and only [17:35] >> anyone but anyone yeah and and so so [17:38] it's definitely something he's been here [17:40] since 94 95 the left blamed him at the [17:44] time for the assassination [17:47] um the left has blamed him now for it's [17:50] Not even the left. We can talk another [17:52] we can talk about what does it mean to [17:53] be leftist anymore in Israel. But in [17:56] general, the opposition has blamed him [17:58] for the um social upheaval in Israel, [18:02] the hatred between the two camps. the [18:05] fact that Israel is becoming according [18:07] to them more and more religious in its [18:09] public sphere [18:10] >> and less democratic [18:11] >> and less democratic according to as we [18:13] saw in the protests during the judicial [18:15] reform but even before there's the [18:17] stories if that I don't know how you [18:19] would translate hadata in schools that [18:21] was a big thing [18:23] >> supposedly that the schools are are [18:25] being forcibly more uh religious [18:27] orthodox [18:28] >> in the orthodox Jewish sense of the word [18:29] >> and then also you have the um the [18:33] allegations of corruption But not just [18:36] corruption in the um in the judicial [18:39] sense but corruption as in personal [18:43] hygiene in the way he acts in the public [18:45] sphere. His wife that's seen as very um [18:49] I would say how would you I don't know [18:52] >> overly engaged in [18:54] >> overly engaged but not just but being [18:56] entitled the sort of entitled to be in [18:58] the prime minister's office. I'm saying [19:00] all the things that people say about [19:02] Nate. I don't know what I'm not saying [19:03] my opinion specifically at least as of [19:06] now. Some of it I agree with. But I'm [19:07] saying [19:07] >> you know what is really interesting I [19:09] want to kind of point out to our [19:11] audience who are hearing us right now [19:13] because these are I think the most also [19:17] historic Israeli elections regionally [19:19] speaking. Uh people in Arab countries [19:22] are looking at these elections very very [19:25] closely. And I want to tell you, I've [19:27] shared this with Dan before. Um, people [19:30] who are in different Arab countries, [19:32] including, let's say, Lebanon, okay? Um, [19:36] they are there's a lot of BB team. I'm [19:38] just going to tell you that right now. [19:40] >> BB BB team. Okay. BB team. [19:43] >> So, uh, it's really interesting, right? [19:45] um that I've had people tell me they're [19:48] like really worried that uh Prime [19:50] Minister Benjamin is not going to be the [19:52] prime minister moving forward because [19:54] what's going to happen to his like his [19:57] weakened tremendously. People are [19:59] feeling a lot more hope in Lebanon and [20:01] they're worried. The same thing in [20:02] different like [20:03] >> can I calm them down? [20:04] >> Yeah. Yeah, calm them down. I I just [20:06] want to hear what you think. [20:07] >> The amazing thing about this election so [20:09] you spoke about left versus right. The [20:12] amazing thing about this election is [20:14] that really on an I in on a policy level [20:18] on foreign policy nothing will change [20:21] >> on economic policy nothing will change [20:23] >> probably but I'm saying 100% [20:25] >> can I ask you why are you [20:26] >> nothing will change what [20:28] >> why are you so sure [20:30] >> because the for two reasons firstly [20:34] because the Israeli public's mood is [20:36] entirely on the right wing so for [20:39] example take the opposition block. You [20:42] have two maybe three parties that are [20:45] more right-wing than Netanyahu on a lot [20:47] of these issues. So, Avigdor Lieberman [20:50] um is one of the kingmakers of the [20:53] opposition block. He's one of the people [20:55] that's the most experienced. He's the [20:57] former defense minister, the former [20:58] finance minister, the former chief of [21:00] staff to Benjamin Netanyahu in 96 when [21:03] he first won. The former foreign [21:05] minister. Um he is more right-wing than [21:08] Netanyahu on this stuff. He if you [21:11] remember during the when I came to [21:13] Israel a little bit after he his party [21:16] called for take kicking the Arabs out of [21:18] the Mishulash and making that part the [21:21] triangle making that part of the [21:22] Palestinian state. [21:23] >> Oh, he was very far to the right. [21:25] >> Yes. And he's still uh he was the one [21:27] that said that we should bomb Asan. The [21:29] Asawan uh how would you translate that? [21:31] >> The aswan dam. [21:32] >> The Asawan dam to punish the Egyptians. [21:35] Uh he he's more of a fire brand. And by [21:38] the way, when he resigned in 20 as a [21:41] defense minister from Netanyahu about 5 [21:44] years ago, I think he wrote a letter [21:45] that was just published about a year ago [21:47] in which he said, which is amazing, by [21:50] the way. He basically predicted what [21:52] would happen on October 7th, but [21:54] predicted it would happen earlier. Uh he [21:56] thought it would happen in 2022. That [21:59] was what he said. And he literally wrote [22:01] that they would storm the gates and that [22:03] they would come in. and he proposed that [22:05] at the time five years ago, Israel [22:07] should open a war against Gaza, against [22:09] Hamas, pretty much demanding that his [22:12] >> He's been calling, I have to say. And [22:14] we, Ariel, we we uh we're going to come [22:15] back to you later throughout the [22:17] evening. We have to jump off to our next [22:18] guest. You're right, Lieberman. He he's [22:20] he's in Israel. He's often joked about [22:22] as sort of an Israeli Putin or a mini [22:24] Putin. He used to be actually [22:25] >> because he has a Russian accent that [22:27] it's Russian the Russian mentality and [22:30] the Russian accent. You're right. He's [22:32] been kind of a prophet on a lot of these [22:33] things. [22:34] >> Um Ariel, we're going to come back to [22:35] you. Um thank you. Excellent insight as [22:38] always. We're going we're going next to [22:40] our good friend from the UK, uh who [22:43] happens to be here in Israel right now, [22:44] but UK, Andrew Fox. And before we get to [22:47] him, we remind you that we have um [22:50] results that are going to be streaming [22:51] throughout the night from the Pekk, [22:52] which is an English language news site [22:54] that covers Israeli polling and election [22:56] results. Um make sure friends, you're [22:58] joining us from Visag 24. our ME24 [23:01] community and friends joining us from [23:03] this uh first collab with Israel 365 on [23:07] their YouTube platform. We have an [23:09] awesome raffle and where's the that [23:11] raffle link? People can find it on our [23:13] uh all of our social media platforms. So [23:15] on Instagram, on our X, on our Facebook, [23:17] the raffle and if you can join that [23:18] raffle, you buy a ticket. Um it goes to [23:20] amazing causes here in Israel such as [23:22] ambulances um and uh and farming [23:25] communities and all these excellent [23:26] things that really could use your help. [23:28] You can find out more on the link. you [23:30] buy a ticket and you have a chance at [23:31] winning a $ 1.3 million luxury apartment [23:34] in Jerusalem. So, make sure you do that [23:35] and make sure you sign up for the ME24 [23:38] newsletter. Let's let in our guest. [23:41] We've got Andrew Fox who's joining us. [23:43] >> And guys, like we're around 30 minutes [23:45] from the polling uh basically starting [23:47] to get the at least the kind of [23:49] speculations of what the polls actually [23:51] said, right? It's not like final. [23:53] They're suggested [23:54] >> exactly. [23:55] >> Yes. Numbers. Hi, Andrew. [23:57] >> Andrew, how are you? [23:58] >> Hey, you're very good. How are you guys? [24:00] >> Excellent. We've got Andrew Fox, uh well [24:02] well-known military affairs analyst, [24:04] Middle East researcher and host, co-host [24:06] of the Brink podcast. An excellent [24:09] excellent new podcast that you've [24:10] launched with with Jake Wallace Simons [24:12] if I'm not mistaken. [24:14] >> Yeah, you got it. [24:15] >> Welcome to Israel, Andrew. How are you? [24:18] >> Yeah, very good. It's been a fun day in [24:19] Tel Aiv today. It's been fascinating [24:21] watching democracy manifest. It's been [24:23] excellent. [24:25] >> We can hear you so well. just if you can [24:27] raise your voice that I think would be [24:28] >> Yeah. or improve your sound quality just [24:30] a little bit. [24:31] >> Yes, [24:31] >> sure. I'll do my best. [24:33] >> So, Andrew, you you are famously uh and [24:35] you've really taken a public platform [24:37] these last few years as being very much [24:39] a British u you're not Jewish, you're a [24:41] British friend of Israel, defender of [24:43] Israel, and and you're here u on [24:45] assignment covering the Israeli [24:47] elections. Is that correct? [24:49] >> Yeah, that's right. I've been out on the [24:50] trip with the uh the Israel Press Club. [24:52] Um, so it's been a, you know, they've [24:54] been taking us north to south, Tel Aviv, [24:56] and, uh, getting trying to get the sense [24:58] for for what Israelis are really [25:00] thinking about this election. And [25:01] >> and what are your views as an outsider [25:03] who's watching Israeli elections [25:04] probably in person for the first time? [25:07] >> I think the really thing interesting [25:09] thing that's hit home is that two [25:10] things. First of all, that every Israeli [25:12] has a different opinion on who they're [25:14] going to vote for. the span of the span [25:17] of kind of views that we've seen over [25:19] the last last week has been everything [25:21] on the spectrum. Um the second really [25:24] interesting thing is how different [25:26] Israeli priorities for Israel are from [25:29] what people in the west think Israel's [25:31] priorities should be. Total disconnect [25:33] like there's almost no overlap between [25:36] the two. Everyone in the west obsesses [25:38] over Palestine, over Gaza, over West [25:40] Bank, over settlers. Whereas in Israel, [25:44] people are worried about the things that [25:45] actually you should be worried about [25:47] during election year. What it means for [25:48] your family, what it means for your [25:49] security, what it means for your town, [25:51] if you go to the north, how you get, you [25:53] know, half the people living back in the [25:55] Galilee who have moved away. You know, [25:57] these are the things that really matter [25:58] to Israelis. And this insane Western [26:01] obsession over Palestine really isn't a [26:03] factor. I don't think anyone's mentioned [26:05] it. It's been a real a real eye opener. [26:08] Do you have any specific observations [26:11] that you feel like kind of were [26:13] surprising to you now that you're [26:15] witnessing these historic elections [26:16] firsthand, especially given that 80% of [26:19] the Israeli public had voted today. [26:23] >> I mean, that's incredible of itself, you [26:25] know, and it shows what a vibrant [26:28] democracy Israel really is. I mean, [26:30] that's unprecedented. I don't think you [26:31] have anywhere in the West that could [26:33] match 80% turnout. That's absolutely [26:35] crazy. Um, I think it's it's been very [26:38] clearly the either BBY or not BBY [26:41] election. [26:42] >> We just said that. That's funny that you [26:44] just said that. [26:45] >> Yeah. [26:46] >> It's so obvious when you're on the [26:47] ground and you see it, right? [26:49] >> Oh, yeah. Yeah. And and it doesn't [26:51] matter where on the probby spectrum you [26:53] are, it's still about BB. And where you [26:55] are on the anti-B spectrum, it's still [26:56] about BB. So, you know, that's that's [26:58] been a real eye opener, too. Um, but [27:00] look, this guy's been prime minister for [27:02] a quarter of Israel's existence. You [27:05] know, he is undeniably one of the global [27:08] figures of the 21st century. Um, and [27:12] it's right that people frame it through [27:13] that lens. I think, you know, he's the [27:15] man who's presided over the most [27:17] turbulent three years in Israel's modern [27:19] history. Like, it should be about BB. [27:21] You know, whether you think he's done a [27:23] good job or a bad job, you know, that's [27:24] that's really matters here. You know, do [27:26] you want him to keep doing the job or do [27:28] you think it's time for somebody else? [27:29] And that that really has defined it from [27:31] from my perspective. [27:33] >> And you know that that's the the the [27:35] kicker here. Um BB has become but he's [27:38] also really branded himself sort of in [27:40] the same way that Trump kind of did [27:42] that. It's really about him. He's become [27:44] the symbol a lot of things that you [27:46] wouldn't expect him to. He's become a [27:47] symbol of the working class even though [27:49] and of the kind of sphartic misrai [27:51] classes and and of the moons. Even [27:53] though he comes from a secular um [27:55] Ashkanazi elitist intellectual family, [27:58] he's really become the symbol of of this [28:01] what what they call actually the second [28:03] Israel. Um the the periphery, the [28:06] underprivileged, etc. And he has become [28:08] he he has become and he made himself the [28:11] symbol of that. And so that's really [28:12] what we're seeing now is that it this [28:14] election, I think more than the previous [28:15] five, has become really a referendum on [28:18] Netanyahu and the the the chart that [28:20] he's sort of coursing [28:23] Yeah, that's right. And you know, we've [28:25] seen the first leaked exit polls. I [28:27] don't know if you've seen those. [28:29] >> Um, [28:30] >> share with us and [28:31] >> we can get our if you can share with us [28:33] and if our producer can pull any of [28:34] those up. [28:36] >> Yeah, sure. So, what we're looking at is [28:38] let me get [28:39] >> and and you guys remember something. [28:40] These are not actual, you know, those [28:42] are just leaked there. Some of them are [28:44] just suggested exit polls. They're not [28:47] final numbers. [28:48] >> Yeah. So, it's 55 for the change block, [28:51] 50 for Netanyahu's block, [28:53] >> 15 seats for the Arab party. [28:55] >> Wow, that's big. [28:57] >> That's that's the first leak from [28:58] Channel 12. Again, unverified, but um [29:01] that's what's coming over already. [29:03] >> And and that's what we've been expecting [29:05] actually. [29:06] >> There's no shock there, is there? But [29:08] that's if that's accurate, then that's I [29:10] think how most people thought it was [29:12] going to play out. [29:13] >> A lot of this was on these these uh [29:15] parties. you know, you're coming from [29:16] the UK and and you're on UK news a lot [29:18] talking about Middle East issues. Um, [29:20] what do you think is going to most you [29:22] mentioned a very good point that that [29:24] the priorities that people outside think [29:26] Israel should have versus the priorities [29:27] that actual Israelis have. What else is [29:29] really surprising you here that you [29:30] think or is do you think will surprise [29:32] your audience uh back home and in [29:34] European and Western audiences who [29:35] follow you? [29:37] >> Yeah, it's a tough question because, you [29:38] know, I've been immersed in this for [29:40] three years. This is my 16th visit to [29:41] Israel. So it's not a it's not an [29:44] unknown quantity for me when I when I [29:46] arrive here. Um I think it's very [29:50] similar. So the priorities are different [29:52] between the West and Israelis. But [29:54] what's not different is that it's still [29:56] about NA when it comes to how they see [29:59] and they analyze Israel. Um does that [30:02] mean I think that a changing prime [30:03] minister would suddenly rehabilitate [30:05] Israel's perspective on you know their [30:07] place in the world? No, I don't think [30:08] that at all because I think there's a [30:10] lot more going on here than than just [30:12] how people feel about Netanyahu. They [30:14] feel certain ways about him because of [30:16] the three years of mindless propaganda [30:18] that they've they've absorbed. So that's [30:21] that's not going to fix everything [30:22] overnight. But I think it is um they are [30:25] going to see it as an opportunity. I [30:26] think I think there'll be people who [30:28] will be disappointed that you know [30:29] whoever takes over doesn't come out on [30:31] day one and say he's declaring a [30:33] two-state solution. You know that's [30:34] that's just not going to happen. And I [30:36] think that's that's probably the thing [30:38] that I think would surprise [30:40] um Westerners the most, whether they're [30:42] pro or anti-Israel, is how few Israelis [30:45] are prepared to accept a two-state [30:46] solution right now. Like I get it. I' [30:49] I've seen the security risk for three [30:50] years. [30:51] >> And you've been in Gaza multiple times. [30:52] Also, [30:53] >> I have. Yeah. So, I've seen that battle [30:55] firsthand. I've been in Lebanon as well. [30:57] Um you know, the rockets fingering when [30:58] I was there, you know, and I've seen the [31:01] security threat that all of this stuff, [31:03] you know, and you got to choose. Do you [31:04] want to be popular or do you want to be [31:06] alive? And and that's really that stark [31:08] I think for Israelis and that's really [31:10] badly understood um when it comes to [31:13] Western audiences. And you know, one of [31:15] the things that we've witnessed, and I [31:17] actually talked about it just now, is [31:19] the that there's a difference, and you [31:20] mentioned that, between how people [31:22] outside of Israel might see what the [31:24] priorities are, and I was just talking [31:25] about the Middle East, North Africa [31:27] region and how different Arab countries [31:28] are now looking at the Israeli [31:30] elections, knowing that um or or maybe [31:33] thinking because um our previous guest [31:35] said that that's not the case, um that [31:38] the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin [31:40] Netanyahu was actually leading a very [31:42] effective war against these terrorist [31:44] organizations supported and funded by [31:46] the Islamic Republic regime in Iran. And [31:48] there are concerns among these groups of [31:50] people from different countries [31:52] including Lebanon, Syria, uh Iraq. I [31:55] mean, you know, you know, the Houthis in [31:57] Yemen, of course, the people of Iran who [31:59] have been hoping that Israel will uh [32:02] continue its war against the regime that [32:04] actually launched a war against Israel [32:05] on October 7th, but they're really [32:08] afraid of not having uh the Israeli [32:11] Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu [32:13] continuing to be the prime minister. [32:14] This is just kind of how regional uh I [32:18] think players, countries, and people are [32:20] seeing these elections. Now, I know that [32:22] the priorities for the people in Israel [32:24] are different and we know how the [32:26] polarization that we've also witnessed [32:28] in the West is very very relevant right [32:31] now in Israel. But in your opinion, [32:33] Andrew, I wanted to ask you because I'm [32:34] an outsider myself. I always say, you [32:36] know, I'm looking at Israel from the [32:37] outside. I share my perspectives and [32:40] opinions as somebody who is from the [32:42] Middle East, born and raised in an Arab, [32:44] you know, majority speaking country, um, [32:46] and then now American of course, but how [32:48] do you see the priorities for Israel? [32:51] What would you be hoping to see these [32:53] elections? I know it's a tough question. [32:55] It's sensitive, but I think it's [32:57] important that we kind of share these [32:58] perspectives for people who know a lot [33:00] about Israel but are still looking at it [33:02] from the outside. [33:04] >> I mean, look, I think security always [33:06] has to be the priority at this moment in [33:08] time. Um, I think we'd all love to reach [33:10] a point where security wasn't the most [33:12] important thing for Israel and they [33:13] could people could sleep in their beds [33:15] at night knowing there'll never be [33:16] another rocket alarm, but we're a very [33:18] long way from that. So security is that [33:20] priority right now. Um I think the [33:24] biggest question is working out what [33:26] Israel's [33:28] center of gravity is going forward. [33:30] What's the most important thing once [33:32] security is achieved and you know how do [33:33] you achieve security is another question [33:36] and I think there is work to do on the [33:38] international stage and I think Israel [33:40] does need to look at how it talks to the [33:42] world and explain things better. Look, [33:44] why is it left to me as some random [33:48] researcher in the United Kingdom to [33:49] fight this battle and explain why Gaza [33:51] looks the way it does? Talk about the [33:54] fighting that actually took place [33:55] because most people think it was just [33:56] air strike after air strike and don't [33:58] realize that there was vicious ground [34:00] fighting in Gaza. You know, it shouldn't [34:02] be for for me to do that. I mean, I'm [34:04] happy to. It's great. You know, it's an [34:06] interesting and fascinating career for [34:07] me, but this is something governments of [34:10] Israel should be doing and explaining [34:12] that better on the world stage. And you [34:14] can make the case that they shouldn't [34:15] have to because no other country does. [34:17] The Ukrainians don't have to explain [34:19] what's happening on the front there on a [34:21] daily basis. But hey, it is different [34:23] rules for Israel whether we like it or [34:24] not. So they have to play by those rules [34:27] uh in order that they don't end up like [34:29] apart idea life Africa which is a [34:30] genuine threat at this point. And so I [34:33] think in terms of center of gravity, [34:34] those are the two things I think we need [34:36] to worry about. And then we can talk [34:37] about whether there should be a rail [34:39] railway line to the Galilee. Um [34:44] Um, Dan, are you with us? Because [34:48] I don't know if I saw you. [34:50] >> Can you see me? [34:51] >> Yes. [34:51] >> Yes, I can hear you now. [34:53] >> People are telling me I lost my feed. [34:54] Andrew, thank you so much for joining [34:55] us. That excellent as always. Uh, good [34:57] to have you on and and we will come back [34:59] to you uh on our podcast for a deep dive [35:01] interview. We are now uh supposed to be [35:03] going to Emily Schrader who is live in [35:06] the streets of Tel Aviv. Um, have fun [35:08] the rest of the week covering these [35:09] elections, Andrew. I hope you and I can [35:11] meet up. [35:15] >> Andrew's voice uh is not coming out [35:17] anymore, but yes. [35:18] >> Cheers, Andrew. Yeah, his connection was [35:19] Emily. How are you? [35:20] >> Hi, Emily. [35:21] >> I'm I am great. It's been a busy busy [35:24] eventful day and new updates by the [35:26] minute coming out it seems. Uh but yes, [35:29] exciting exciting times here in Israel. [35:31] >> Tell people that Emily, you are on the [35:32] ground. You've been talking to people as [35:34] they're exiting the voting stations and [35:36] we're so eager to hear from you about [35:38] what's going on right now. How are the [35:41] people feeling? The turnout is obviously [35:43] historic and massive. I've never seen [35:45] this in any other democracy in the [35:46] world. 80%. This is insane. Um but in a [35:49] good way, right? Tell me how you know [35:51] people are feeling. What are you kind of [35:53] seeing and witnessing? [35:55] >> Well, you know, from the beginning of [35:56] the day, it's been a huge showing of of [36:00] support for voting in general. Starting [36:02] from early in the morning, I started in [36:04] northern Israel and I've made my way [36:06] down the country through multiple [36:07] different polling stations speaking to [36:09] different voters here in Tel Aviv, [36:11] especially in southern Tel Aviv. I spoke [36:12] to a lot of voters who uh were very [36:14] supportive of the Democrats party uh [36:17] which is a a left-wing party. I'm [36:19] certain that they will see some support [36:21] from here in Tel Aviv, typically a [36:23] left-wing or center left-wing stronghold [36:25] here in Israel. But overall, I mean, the [36:28] turnout has surpassed the 2022 election [36:30] in almost every category, the religious, [36:33] the secular, the leftwing, the [36:35] right-wing. So, we're seeing tremendous [36:37] turnout. But really, the story of the [36:38] day is the Arab parties. I mean, we're [36:41] only hearing rumors now, the official uh [36:44] polls, exit polls haven't come out, but [36:46] the rumors that are coming out are are [36:48] shocking for most of the Israeli public. [36:50] We saw over 80% there [36:53] >> to mute himself for one moment just [36:55] because there is an echo. Dan if you can [36:57] mute yourself and then um Ido if we can [36:59] cancel the echo here [37:01] >> and so Emily can continue. [37:03] >> Okay. Go ahead Emily. Yes. [37:06] >> Sure. Yes. I mean I love to hear myself [37:08] twice but no complaints for me. Uh but [37:10] no we've we've seen uh rumors at least [37:13] so far. They haven't yet been confirmed, [37:14] probably will be any second now of a [37:17] unprecedented number of mandates for the [37:20] Arab parties. We're talking about the [37:21] joint list and also Ram. Uh although [37:24] that we have also seen Arab [37:25] representation within other uh Israeli [37:27] parties that are running in this [37:29] election. But yeah, I think definitely [37:31] there's going to be some surprises in [37:32] even in the span of a few minutes as as [37:34] these exit polls come out. Uh not [37:37] everyone is going to love what's [37:38] happening what the what's happening on [37:40] the ground with these exit polls [37:41] including some of the parties that will [37:42] be a major surprise I think but I'm sure [37:45] we'll discuss more in the coming hour or [37:47] so. [37:47] >> Absolutely. But we cannot wait. I mean I [37:49] really want to hear just your [37:50] perspective based on your conversations. [37:52] What are the surprises that are waiting [37:54] for us? Are there like a clear kind of [37:57] defining maybe um kind of a sense of one [38:01] of the candidates or a party that are [38:03] getting higher numbers in the polls [38:06] given people's votes um from what you [38:08] have sensed so far? [38:10] >> Well, obviously, as I mentioned, the [38:12] Arab parties have far surpassed [38:13] expectations. Uh I I think that what [38:15] we're going to see in the polls is a [38:17] different version of what we've seen in [38:19] the polls leading up to the elections. [38:20] Meaning that there is somewhat of a [38:22] stalemate in terms of forming a [38:24] coalition. I don't think we're going to [38:26] see a complete consensus where uh either [38:28] the change block as they're calling it, [38:30] which is led by GTI Eisenhot and the [38:32] Ashar party is going to have a clear [38:34] mandate to form a coalition or the [38:36] right-wing parties led by Netanyahu. I [38:39] don't think they're going to have a [38:40] clear mandate to form a coalition [38:41] either. What we're hearing a lot of [38:43] chatter about today throughout the day [38:45] both on the streets but also in the [38:47] media and by experts uh is talk of a [38:49] unity government potentially between [38:52] Likud and Yashar led by Gatti Eisenkot. [38:55] Uh again this is the beginning stages of [38:57] this conversation and that would be very [38:59] very uh interesting if that happens but [39:01] we don't have any confirmation yet other [39:03] than a few different people in both [39:05] sides have discussed that that's [39:07] something on the table. [39:09] >> Oh my god. Like I'm just going to say it [39:10] and I know Emily. Oh, Emily I can't hear [39:12] you anymore. Um were you still speaking [39:15] because I heard but like your the lip [39:17] sync I think the audio continued [39:19] >> or or might just be a little delayed. [39:21] >> Yes, a delayed feed. So So what I I [39:24] really like I know I'm an outsider and I [39:26] I say that respectfully of course um the [39:29] idea of having a coalition government it [39:30] just sounds so beautiful. Like I'm like [39:32] oh yes I love you know Israel united [39:34] everybody's working together. But how do [39:36] you feel people feel when you say that? [39:38] Like this is really interesting. You [39:39] just mentioned that it could be uh you [39:42] know the path forward is a coalition [39:44] government between the right-wing Liikur [39:46] and um Eisenot. [39:50] >> I think that honestly and this isn't as [39:53] much of a positive answer as your [39:55] enthusiasm. I think Israelis are pretty [39:57] tired. Uh and I think they're pretty [39:59] tired of this because we want to see [40:01] from what I heard from people on the [40:02] ground, we want to see a government that [40:04] works together uh that isn't embracing [40:06] extremism. And while of course everyone [40:08] has their opinions about what should [40:10] happen next and the next steps, uh I I [40:12] think there's a sense of frustration uh [40:14] with the current government since [40:16] October 7th through today uh that the [40:18] voice of the people hasn't really been [40:19] heard. So it will definitely be [40:21] interesting to see how you know the [40:23] final mandates for this election do end [40:25] up. And furthermore, the aftermath. Are [40:28] they going to be able to form a [40:29] coalition? Are they going to be able to [40:31] work with partners that perhaps they [40:32] didn't expect to work with? My hope is [40:35] that yes, they will find a solution to [40:36] some of these problems. But as we've [40:38] seen before, you know, we had five [40:40] elections in a row almost in the past. [40:42] So, we we really love democracy here. We [40:44] like it so much we keep having [40:46] elections. So, we'll see what happens. [40:49] >> Yes, Israel is such a vibrant democracy. [40:51] It's it's very I mean I've never seen or [40:54] heard of a turnout like today's turnout [40:57] in Israel 80% of the people. Can I ask [40:59] you quickly Emily um you know about Ysef [41:03] Hadad who is your own um husband now or [41:06] fiance I'm just going to be very [41:08] >> fiance [41:09] >> fiance. So he and Hassan who's going to [41:12] be actually with us shortly. They're [41:14] also running there with the party of [41:16] your people Israel right? Um how do you [41:19] feel like they've done today? Is there a [41:21] sense? Have you seen people talk about [41:23] voting for their party? Um, give me more [41:26] from like the ground as you are covering [41:28] everything. [41:30] >> So, it's actually been quite surprising [41:32] throughout the day because they are a [41:33] small party, what's called a threshold [41:35] party, right on the edge of whether or [41:37] not they're going to actually make it [41:39] into the Knesset. Every party has to uh [41:41] achieve at least 3.25% of the total [41:44] vote. And with a huge turnout like 80%, [41:46] it becomes even more challenging. So, we [41:48] don't have the answers to that yet. [41:50] they're going to it's going to be close [41:51] but I will say that on the ground we saw [41:53] a lot more momentum and excitement for [41:56] this party today than I think a lot of [41:57] people in the party itself expected uh [42:00] they were surprised by the outpouring of [42:03] support and the very high number of [42:05] people who reached out to them uh saying [42:07] that they were voting and this has been [42:09] uh I just want to clarify this has been [42:10] a really ugly political campaign this [42:13] season. And it may have been short, only [42:14] a couple of uh only a couple of months, [42:17] but it was very very intensive and also [42:19] for the voters. You know, people from [42:21] left to right expressed a lot of [42:22] frustration with the way that the [42:24] election was being run and the sort of [42:26] dirty political games that we saw from [42:28] across the spectrum. Uh so there there [42:30] is a sense of frustration and I think [42:32] that for the party of you know Flor [42:34] Hassan and Ysef Hadad that's led by Ofer [42:37] Winter, uh they were viewed as [42:39] outsiders. It's a list of people who [42:40] have never been in Knesset before and [42:42] that was refreshing I think to a lot of [42:44] voters regardless of their ideology and [42:46] that is consistent with people I spoke [42:48] to today. You know I have friends and [42:50] colleagues who informed me that they in [42:52] fact were voting for this party today [42:54] when they expected to vote for in some [42:56] cases a very left-wing party and AMA is [42:59] the people of Israel party is considered [43:01] to be right-wing. So that just should [43:03] give you some perspective on the [43:05] different types of frustration that the [43:06] Israeli voters are feeling uh and what's [43:08] impacting their choices today when they [43:10] head to the polls. [43:11] >> Absolutely. And I want to encourage [43:13] people to also look and watch our uh [43:15] episodes with both Ysef Hadad and Flo [43:18] Hassan. They are on the Middle East [43:20] breakdown where we talk extensively [43:21] about their party and uh what they are [43:24] hoping to achieve for Israel. Um it's [43:26] the Middle East breakdown and um with [43:28] Yousef it was in Arabic. That was really [43:30] interesting. But we did uh put English [43:32] subtitles. So, thank you so much, Emily. [43:34] And now Dan is with us. I'm sure he has [43:36] some questions for you if you have a [43:38] moment to stay with us. [43:39] >> Sure. Sure. Yeah, [43:41] >> absolutely. And we're going to be going [43:42] soon. Uh I'm just having some some [43:44] technical difficulties on my site. [43:45] That's why I keep dropping off. We're [43:46] going to be going soon to the live uh [43:48] results, the the exit polling results, [43:50] but uh you're you're standing in Tel [43:52] Aviv, is that correct, Emily? [43:54] >> Yes. Yes. And and so what what is the [43:56] mood, you know, that that you're getting [43:58] from people as they're coming out of the [44:00] polls? We know we have record voter [44:02] turnout in this country. We've never had [44:04] th this kind of how how do you view [44:06] that? You just mentioned uh you just [44:07] mentioned that people want to see [44:08] change. People want to see, you know, [44:11] something different in the politics [44:12] here. But what is as you're talking to [44:14] people who are coming out and maybe as [44:16] you come back on the show, maybe you can [44:17] grab some people who are coming out and [44:18] and and see if they want to join us in [44:20] English on the uh on the platform. what [44:23] what's the main takeaway you're getting [44:25] at this point? [44:26] >> So from the beginning of the day, we saw [44:28] a tremendous amount of excitement about [44:31] this election. Uh in the center in Tel [44:34] Aviv area, I primarily saw people who [44:36] were very enthusiastic about Yashar [44:38] Gaddy Eisenkott's party also uh the [44:40] Democrats party which makes sense for [44:42] Tel Aviv as I mentioned it tends to be a [44:44] more left-wing or center left-wing city. [44:47] That being said, there were some [44:48] surprises as I mentioned, a lot of [44:50] outpouring of support for Amar Isel and [44:52] that momentum has really continued. Uh I [44:55] do want to say that after about 4:00 [44:57] p.m. through the early evening until [45:00] now, I would say uh there seems to be a [45:02] bit more panic, a bit more concern on [45:04] the center left based on what we're [45:06] hearing in the polls and the rumors [45:08] going around about the uh the exit [45:11] polls. So there there is a bit of stress [45:13] I would say on the center left but again [45:15] there's still a tremendous amount of [45:17] momentum across the board. I mean even [45:19] the the Haredi parties and the uh [45:21] leftwing parties as well as the [45:23] right-wing parties are really trying to [45:25] amplify uh you know what what is [45:28] happening and to maximize their [45:29] opportunities at the at the ballot box. [45:32] Yeah. And you know, one of the things [45:34] that I'm seeing as I'm talking to people [45:35] throughout the day, um, the number of [45:38] people who I generally would expect to [45:40] be voting for the leftwing or the center [45:42] left parties. You know, one of the [45:43] confusing things about this, and we've [45:44] talked about this a lot on our podcast [45:47] and on our weekly live show, is what [45:49] people outside of Israel think of issues [45:51] of left and right or the left and right [45:52] divide in Israel doesn't really, as you [45:55] know, the math ain't mathing, right? As [45:57] people say, um, it doesn't really add [45:59] up. uh everyone is is in consensus on [46:01] the need to be really strong against [46:03] Hamas and Gaza. Everyone is on the need [46:05] to take on Iran. Uh a lot of people are [46:08] very much in favor of the Jewish nature [46:09] of the state. They argue what that is. [46:11] So the concepts of left and right are [46:14] just different here. We don't have an [46:15] argument over, you know, uh healthcare [46:17] and abortion and gun rights and [46:19] environmental issues. Everyone's pretty [46:20] much on board with all of that whether [46:22] you're on the left or the right. And so [46:24] I don't like to use the term left and [46:25] right. We need to talk about the what [46:27] we've been saying so far on the [46:28] broadcast, the Bibistim and the [46:31] Bibistim. Um, all right. The the those [46:34] for BB and those not for BB. But [46:36] something that surprised me is a lot of [46:38] people who I would consider uh maybe [46:41] religious, maybe conservative, etc. are [46:43] voting for the um you know parties like [46:46] Eisenot and like Bennett and certainly [46:48] Lieberman and friends of mine who have [46:51] traditionally been on the left and [46:52] certainly are secular or secular [46:54] traditional definitely not religious are [46:56] voting for very right-wing parties [46:59] including people like Smotri and Faglin [47:01] and so I found that to be very [47:02] interesting throughout the day the that [47:04] the pe the people who vote don't [47:06] necessarily vote for who you expect you [47:09] know them to vote for [47:11] >> no that's definitely been the case I I [47:13] think uh part of the reason for that is [47:15] we're in the aftermath of October 7th. [47:17] Uh we haven't had any kind of [47:19] commission. We haven't seen any kind of [47:21] investigation on you know the current [47:23] government. Most of the current [47:25] government is running again as I [47:26] mentioned there really is only one party [47:28] uh sizable party on the threshold uh [47:31] that's new and that is the Amra Israel [47:33] party which we spoke spoke about. Uh but [47:35] we do see people crossing uh previous [47:38] lines that maybe they wouldn't have [47:40] before for a number of different [47:41] reasons. One of that is what I mentioned [47:43] before, people fed up with the status [47:44] quo, people from right to left who were [47:46] there on October 7th, they don't want to [47:48] see them anymore in Knesset. So, we have [47:50] seen a new phenomenon of of some voters [47:53] uh voting perhaps very far right uh [47:55] because of security issues based on [47:57] where they live or they're unhappy with [47:59] the results of uh the Iran war or the [48:01] conflict with Gaza. They want to see [48:03] something different. And on the flip [48:04] side of that, we have people voting for [48:06] uh parties like Yashar who have [48:08] traditionally been very uh focused on [48:11] security or even religious issues. Uh [48:13] one of the core issues in this election [48:15] has been uh what's called hoka use which [48:17] is the enlistment of the ultraorththodox [48:19] into the army. They are traditionally [48:22] exempt from the mandatory army service [48:24] that all citizens of the state of [48:25] Israel, Jewish citizens of the state of [48:27] Israel are required to complete. This is [48:29] a huge debate right now because uh the [48:32] army needs more soldiers. So there's [48:33] been a lot of pressure especially when [48:35] you have uh reservists who have left [48:38] their family. They've served hundreds [48:39] and hundreds in some cases over a [48:40] thousand days of reserve duty in Gaza, [48:44] in Syria, in Lebanon um you know [48:46] fighting these wars against Israel's [48:48] enemies. Well, many of the [48:49] ultraorththodox communities haven't [48:51] fulfilled uh the minimum of what their [48:54] uh their status quo would be uh to serve [48:56] in the army. So this has become a major [48:58] major issue uh in the state of Israel [49:00] and we do see people sort of crossing I [49:03] don't know if party is the right word [49:04] but crossing party lines into different [49:06] areas where they maybe wouldn't have [49:08] voted uh traditionally [49:10] >> right the the the probab I'll just say [49:12] the probab has it's estimated that has [49:15] lost maybe 10 votes because of [49:17] specifically this issue this frustration [49:19] about October 7th the lack of an inquiry [49:21] and then specifically this issue of the [49:23] ultraorththodox largely refusing to vote [49:26] and there was a party um there is a [49:28] party they're not expected to pass the [49:29] threshold but there is a party among the [49:31] ultraorththodox who is running exactly [49:34] on that platform that the [49:35] ultraorththodox need to to serve and [49:37] share their part of the country I have [49:38] to say talking to a lot of people from [49:40] the ultraorththodox community the one [49:42] thing that comes up from them is that [49:44] there because most of them are actually [49:46] largely cut off from the broader [49:47] societal discourse they're not on social [49:49] media they don't necessarily watch the [49:51] mainstream news they really don't [49:53] understand this and so in their own [49:54] minds and what their own leadership is [49:56] telling ing them is that they are [49:58] actually doing their part and more for [50:00] the country because they uphold uh Torah [50:02] study or Bible study, right? And so in [50:05] their minds, they're doing their part. [50:06] They're they're carrying their fair [50:08] share burden of of of the country and [50:10] they don't realize exactly what it is. [50:11] You said that the rest of the country is [50:13] serving hundreds and hundreds of days. [50:15] Um and that's something again that we [50:16] we've covered a lot here. We're going to [50:18] have the polls u soon. We're 3 minutes [50:20] away from 10:00. If you want to stay [50:22] with us, Emily, and we can we can unpack [50:24] that as we go. [50:25] >> Yes. And say something real quick. Yeah. [50:27] >> Yeah. I I do want to jump in about so we [50:30] can um mute Dan. Um so Emily, I wanted [50:33] to ask you because you mentioned [50:34] something really important which is the [50:36] major turnout in Arab votes. What do [50:39] those votes mean? Um do we know who are [50:43] they voting for? Um of course we know [50:46] that there's the Ahmed TV. Um, there's [50:48] the, you know, which are very, in my [50:50] opinion, my assessment, just somebody [50:52] who speaks Arabic who've seen them on [50:54] Arab TV stations, they're anti-Israel. I [50:56] mean, plainly and simply and like as is. [50:59] Okay, I'm saying it out loud. Um, there [51:01] are also the um the Mansour, right? The [51:04] guy who is Islamist, but they're like [51:07] supposedly they're more like working [51:08] within, you know, the the frame of [51:10] Israel as a as a Jewish state. I guess I [51:12] I don't know. I just feel like there is [51:15] really a big gap between the Arab [51:17] parties and and of course like being [51:20] like a patriotic Israeli parties. Like I [51:22] don't see that this is kind of going [51:24] hand in hand. However, when I [51:25] interviewed Ysef Hadad, he did speak [51:27] about a growing number of Israeli Arabs [51:32] who actually do disagree with with these [51:35] uh different parties. they are tired of [51:38] what's been happening and that they are [51:41] at least privately saying that they do [51:44] want to be you know patriotic Israelis [51:47] who are appreciative and grateful and [51:49] just a like part of the Israeli society [51:52] and uh you know when I see now like all [51:55] of the videos of the Bedawins going to [51:57] vote on camels like you know very I [52:00] think iconic right because like you [52:02] would not see that anywhere else in that [52:04] part of the world um bedwins going to [52:06] vote in a democratic elections, but who [52:08] do you think they're voting for? And [52:11] where do you see like this massive [52:13] turnout in Arab votes is going to [52:15] actually be ending up voting to? Um, can [52:18] we have your assessment on this? [52:22] >> Yeah. So traditionally the Arab sector [52:25] votes for the joint list primarily also [52:28] uh more in southern Israel they vote for [52:30] Ram the party that's led by Mansor Abbas [52:33] which was actually in the previous [52:34] government which was a very historic [52:36] government in its own right. Um it's [52:39] your your assessment is correct. Uh they [52:41] are traditionally anti-Israel. They have [52:43] not really served the ArabIsraeli [52:46] population. In fact, a lot of times they [52:48] have very much prioritized international [52:50] political issues and and interest issues [52:53] over even their own population here in [52:56] Israel. There certainly is an appetite [52:58] for people that are fed up with that. [52:59] It's an increasing sentiment in the Arab [53:01] sector. I don't know how dominant it is [53:03] in terms of elections. I guess we'll [53:05] see. Uh but it will be interesting once [53:07] we get the full data to sort of dig down [53:10] into some of the actual communities [53:12] within the Arab sector and see how they [53:14] voted because you do we do get that data [53:16] after. I know in the past we saw that [53:18] there were several areas that were very [53:20] strongly in support of LIud for example. [53:22] Uh I do expect that we'll see some [53:24] similar trends for some of the majority [53:26] Arab-Israeli cities here in Israel [53:28] voting for uh various other you know [53:30] what I would call pro-Israel parties. Uh [53:32] we also know that there was a sizable [53:34] support from the Christian community for [53:36] uh Yusf had in Israel. Uh and also there [53:39] are others from the Drews community and [53:41] from other uh Arab communities here in [53:43] Israel that are within other parties and [53:45] that's uh that's something uh that you [53:48] know we'll know more about after the [53:49] actual election results come out. But [53:51] yeah, on the one hand it's great to see [53:53] such such high level of participation. [53:55] We want to see more integration with the [53:57] state of Israel uh from the Arab sector [54:00] and from all the sectors here in Israel. [54:01] But in terms of those particular [54:03] parties, yeah, these are not these are [54:05] not pro-Israel parties. [54:07] >> Yeah. And guys, [54:09] >> guys, we're starting to get the results. [54:10] We're starting to get the results. So, [54:12] uh, if a producer can pull them up, the [54:13] early in mind, these are not definitive. [54:16] >> These are not definitive. Um, but they [54:18] are generally pretty close to what we [54:21] know to be the case. The official [54:23] results will take another two or three [54:25] days, but the Lud is coming out on top [54:28] with 24 right now from what I'm seeing. [54:31] Vikuda is coming out on top with 24 [54:35] me and Emily Emily are our officer and [54:38] let's show the polling results on the [54:40] big screen. [54:42] >> So let's get the polling results on the [54:44] screen but the early results that I'm [54:45] getting according to Israel channel 12 [54:48] and different channels have slightly [54:50] different results but not significantly. [54:52] So we are seeing right now that Likood [54:54] is coming out on top with 24 seats. [54:57] Remember this is out of 120. 24 seats [54:59] out of 120. Eisenkot in the Yashawa or [55:02] the straightforward uh camp. The main [55:04] challenger to Nyah who was predicted to [55:06] win up until now is coming out with 22. [55:08] So in second place right now Naftali [55:11] Bennett is coming out on 12. He's in the [55:13] Eisenkot camp and uh we will get more of [55:16] the smaller parties as we come out. But [55:18] we're seeing right now the Arab parties [55:21] are actually polling incredibly high. Um [55:24] more than 15. We're seeing 17 seats um [55:26] according to some channels, 18 seats [55:29] according to other channels. And so [55:31] you're seeing uh roughly 52 seats on the [55:34] Netanyahu side and around 50 seats on [55:37] the Eisenkot side with the Arab parties [55:39] getting historic highs historic highs [55:42] right now around 17 or 18. If I'm going [55:45] to jump in here to what these polls are [55:47] actually saying, we're talking about um [55:51] we're talking about the Likood is even [55:52] pulling as high as 25. Eisenhot as low [55:54] as 21, Bennett as high as 14. This is [55:58] according to the Khan 11 post. So again, [56:00] the different channels have different [56:02] polls and there's slight differences [56:03] between them. The um the joint Arab List [56:06] is polling at 10. The left-wing [56:09] Democrats led by Egalan is pulling at [56:11] 10. Israel Betenu of Avdigra Liberman is [56:13] pulling at eight. Um OTM Beng is pulling [56:16] at seven. Ram Mansurbas is actually [56:18] pulling at seven. That's more than we [56:20] expected. Yadut Torah which is the ultra [56:22] orthodox Ashkanazi party at six. Shas [56:25] ultraorththodox sphartic party at six. [56:28] Um Smote the the kind of religious [56:30] Zionist party at six. And then Amha [56:33] Israel is not passing the polls. And the [56:37] Hendlesha reser uh e economics party is [56:41] also not passing the polls I'm seeing on [56:44] any of the three major polls. Um, so [56:46] with very slight differences between [56:48] them, but that's what we're seeing [56:50] between the the blocks that the small [56:52] parties on both the probab [56:55] side are not passing the polls. The Arab [56:57] parties are getting much more than [56:59] expected and um and a slight lead [57:03] according to all the polls. According to [57:05] all the polls, a slight lead um and even [57:08] a significant lead for Benjamin and for [57:11] the Likood over Gotti Eisenot with [57:13] neither side anywhere near the 60 mark. [57:17] Emily, what what are your thoughts on [57:18] this right now? [57:20] >> Well, it's going to be very very [57:21] difficult to form a coalition with uh if [57:24] this is indeed what the mandates end up [57:26] being, it's going to be very difficult [57:27] for either side uh to form a coalition. [57:30] uh it makes that talk of unity [57:32] government perhaps a little bit more [57:34] likely but you know we'll wait and see [57:36] how it actually ends up with the [57:37] official results but uh it is as I [57:40] mentioned before as I predicted uh it is [57:43] very difficult to form a coalition [57:44] according to the polls the makeup isn't [57:46] what we expected and yet it still [57:48] remains very difficult for either side [57:50] to form a coalition so we'll have to [57:51] follow this closely as the results uh [57:53] become more final [57:54] >> but we have to remember something these [57:56] are not the final results these are just [57:59] the exit polls and they do change and I [58:01] think we're not going to know the actual [58:02] results until around November 4th. Is [58:05] that [58:06] >> we'll know the results in a couple of [58:08] days. [58:09] >> We'll know there so just to explain to [58:10] the public what's happening here. So the [58:12] outside audience we'll know the the [58:13] official results in about two maybe [58:16] three days tops. What we won't know is [58:18] if if there will be a government and who [58:20] will head it. So if these polls are [58:23] correct then Netanyahu will have the [58:25] first crack most likely at forming a [58:28] government. What has to happen next is [58:29] actually quite complicated. The the [58:32] biggest party, the biggest party in the [58:35] election, a every single party leader [58:38] has to go to the president, Isaac [58:39] Herzong, and has a one-on-one with the [58:42] president and says, "I am going to [58:44] recommend Netanyahu, Eisenot, etc. to be [58:48] the next prime minister of the state of [58:49] Israel." The president then has to say, [58:51] okay, who of the top candidates has the [58:53] most realistic chance at putting [58:55] together a coalition of 61 plus. [58:59] Traditionally, it's the biggest party. [59:00] It is not always the biggest party. We [59:02] had back in 2009, Netanyahu had the [59:04] second biggest party. But because TP [59:07] Levenny could not put together a [59:08] coalition, Netanyahu then got the um the [59:12] chance to put together a coalition and [59:13] he did as the second biggest party. [59:15] famously Nafali Bennett just just four [59:17] year five years ago with only six [59:20] Knesset seats was the only one who could [59:22] put together a coalition um which was [59:25] which was you know an aberration by all [59:28] standards whether you support him or [59:29] don't um so that's that's what we're [59:31] looking at now only channel 14 which is [59:33] the very much the the probab kind of [59:36] right-wing channel is giving Netanyahu [59:38] over 61 seats the three major channels [59:41] in Israel 11 which is the public [59:43] broadcaster 12 and 13 are all putting it [59:46] more or less at a tie with a slightly to [59:48] the Netanyahu camp and with the Arab [59:50] parties pulling at 17 or 18 seats. So [59:53] this is big. This is big. [59:54] >> Can I ask what's the margin usually if [59:57] we are seeing these numbers right now? [59:59] Usually how much do those results change [60:02] in the next couple of days? what is the [60:04] margin like for example even for AMA [60:06] Israel if it's uh if it does enter or [60:09] could could that change for one of these [60:12] parties to actually enter and become a [60:14] part of the kinet can you explain a [60:17] little bit more about what to expect um [60:19] now that we know these initial uh exit [60:22] polls [60:23] >> I think it's unlikely that we're going [60:25] to see a change in that uh first and [60:27] foremost because of the total voter [60:30] turnout I mean it's exceptionally high [60:32] which places the total number of votes [60:34] that any of these smaller parties need [60:36] in order to pass the threshold that [60:37] 3.25% it makes it infinitely harder. Uh [60:41] when we saw that the voter turnout was [60:42] so high earlier in the day that was I [60:44] think the primary concern for most of [60:46] these smaller parties. Despite that as I [60:48] mentioned we've seen a lot of momentum [60:49] on the ground for particularly here on [60:52] the ground. Uh but despite that it is [60:55] very very difficult when you have such a [60:57] high voter turnout. I mean this is the [60:59] highest turnout that we've seen since [61:00] 1988 at least. We're at, you know, [61:02] almost uh or a little over now, I think [61:04] 80% turn. It's it's remarkable almost [61:08] unprecedented uh the turnout that we've [61:10] seen here, especially from the Arab [61:12] sector. [61:13] >> So, I don't [61:15] >> I don't expect it to change very much. [61:17] Now, I I do say that with a caveat [61:19] because a lot of the ballots that have [61:20] not yet been counted that we need that [61:22] extra 48 hours for are ballots of [61:24] soldiers. Uh a lot of these soldiers [61:26] from people I've spoken to both before [61:28] and just today uh who who cast their [61:31] ballots from you know the IDF a lot of [61:33] them are very big supporters of Eisenot [61:36] and also of Ur Winter who was a very [61:38] known and respected army leader. That's [61:41] sort of his his background. So it may [61:43] change things uh but I don't expect it [61:45] to have a substantial difference. It [61:47] could be wrong but as of now that's not [61:49] the indication we're getting. [61:51] >> Wow. [61:51] >> Right. And I'll just add on that, hey, [61:53] the the big the big question if those [61:55] parties can crack through or not is keep [61:56] in mind, we're talking about a 3.25% [61:59] threshold. And so the polls are right [62:01] now talking about the the those two [62:04] parties. We're talking about Ofer [62:05] Winters Amel party of which Yousef and [62:07] Fur who we've had on our show are a part [62:09] of and also um Hendle what we call [62:12] Hendle Zika or the reservist Economic [62:15] Party. We're also talking about the new [62:16] ultraorththodox party. The polls don't [62:19] say how many they got. They say that [62:21] they're just at zero because now if we [62:23] find out that they're at 3%. Which means [62:26] they didn't pass. But in the next couple [62:28] days, those numbers will creep up to the [62:30] 3.25% then all of a sudden they're in [62:33] and that can completely change the map [62:35] one way or the other. Um all of a sudden [62:37] it can it will completely shift the map. [62:39] So it also has to do with any of the [62:41] smaller parties. It it can change it by [62:44] one or two mandates this way or the [62:46] other or even three or four mandates. [62:47] Imagine, excuse me, imagine if one party [62:50] that is currently zero manages to break [62:53] in, then all of the votes are going to [62:55] be readjusted by four seats. And that is [62:58] actually quite significant. It has [63:00] happened before. It can happen before. [63:02] When you're talking about tens of [63:04] thousands of votes when you're bringing [63:06] in the soldiers vote, when you're [63:07] bringing in diplomats votes from abroad, [63:09] that's not that many, but the soldiers [63:10] is a lot. So, we we do want to these [63:13] tend to be pretty accurate, but we want [63:15] to wait to see what the actual official [63:18] results are in a couple days. Um, I'd [63:20] give this 90 plus% accuracy rate. I [63:24] don't know. Would you agree with that, [63:25] Emily? [63:26] >> Yeah, I think I would pretty much agree [63:27] with that assessment. Uh, it might it [63:30] might depending on what the actual [63:32] percentage is right now, as you stated, [63:34] it might shift. Uh, it is still [63:36] possible, I think, for to break in. It [63:38] will depend a lot on how the soldiers [63:40] vote, but again, we don't know because [63:42] we don't know the exact percentages [63:43] behind these exit polls where they're [63:45] at. Are they even close? If they are [63:47] close, maybe we could see a shakeup. If [63:49] not, it's probably not going to happen [63:51] this time around. [63:52] >> So, we're looking at a coalition [63:54] government at this point, right? Like [63:55] given what we're seeing right now, [63:57] that's what it's leaning towards. Is [63:59] that what will happen given these [64:01] numbers? Would uh the prime minister [64:03] Benjamin Netanyahu be able to form a [64:05] government with his own parties giving [64:08] these um exit polls? [64:11] >> Unlikely. Uh I think it's going to be [64:13] very very difficult for him to form any [64:15] kind of right-wing coalition. Um I'm [64:18] sure he's going to try. I don't hold out [64:20] a lot of hope for that, but you know, it [64:22] remains to be seen. As I mentioned at [64:24] the beginning, there's been a lot of [64:25] talk about a unity government. That may [64:27] happen, especially given the numbers [64:29] that we're seeing right now. uh and you [64:31] know 16 17 potentially even 18 seats for [64:34] the Arab parties the joint list and RAM [64:37] uh that really does shake things up I [64:39] think for the left or the center-left's [64:42] ability to form a coalition. So it kind [64:45] of remains a stalemate. We're going to [64:46] have to wait and see what happens in the [64:48] next 48 hours before we really have an [64:50] answer to that. But my guess at this [64:52] point and it is just a guess uh would be [64:55] that they will go for some kind of or [64:57] attempt to have some sort of a unity [64:58] government. But we'll see. We'll see. [65:00] >> Yeah. I in fact I I just want to correct [65:02] something that I said earlier. I [65:03] misspoke. One of the polls puts [65:04] Netanyahu in the lead. The rest of the [65:06] polls are putting Eisenkot in the lead. [65:08] I I misspoke on that earlier. Um and so [65:11] what we're seeing now as again the [65:13] results are coming in. And again, these [65:14] are not final results. A slight lead for [65:16] the change block, meaning the Eisenot [65:18] block over the Netanyahu block. and [65:21] channel 12 uh Israel channel 12 news is [65:24] saying not confirmed is saying this is [65:27] Amit Seagal probably Israel's top [65:29] political correspondent who is quite [65:30] close to to different government circles [65:32] that President Herzog is likely to give [65:35] the mandate first to Eisenkot if this is [65:38] the case and so Eisenot's going to have [65:40] a chance here and so you know one of the [65:42] big questions that that we're going to [65:43] have um is again are we going to that [65:46] unity government that you were talking [65:47] about Emily um which is a real [65:50] possibility here. And then the big [65:51] question on that is can Netanyahu serve [65:54] under someone else? Very hard for me to [65:57] see that scenario. Or um or will Eisenot [66:03] allow to lean on a coalition that is [66:06] supported on a minority government [66:07] supported from the outside by let's say [66:10] Mansour Basin Ram or the Arab parties [66:12] which would be highly unpopular among [66:13] the more right-wing voters of the [66:16] coalition. So, [66:18] >> so can I rephrase my question here and [66:20] say would Eisenhot be able to if you [66:24] yourself um would Eisenot be able to [66:27] form a coalition or a government on his [66:29] own giving the results if that is the [66:31] case uh which are you know the exit [66:33] polls that Dan just mentioned? [66:35] >> I mean theoretically he could. Would he [66:38] given who those partners are? Highly [66:40] unlikely. I think what Dan mentioned [66:42] with a a potential minority government [66:44] that's led by Eisenhot is significantly [66:47] more likely uh than Eisenhot actually [66:49] forming a coalition with some of these [66:51] Arab parties. I mean some of these [66:53] members of of the Arab parties don't [66:54] even really accept Israel's right to [66:56] exist. So there's a lot of issues with [66:59] >> I want to tell you Emily it's just [67:01] insane that they are part of the Keset. [67:04] They are you know basically citizens of [67:06] the state of Israel getting the benefits [67:08] of being citizens of the state of [67:10] Israel. having the freedom and the [67:12] rights to vote but they are very [67:13] anti-Israel. I I just it's astonishing [67:16] to me still they are part of the Knesset [67:18] I mean what does it mean now to have [67:21] like based on these number 18 right the [67:25] 18 this is a very high number I'm just [67:28] trying to imagine what would that do to [67:31] any uh future government um and would [67:35] there you know could you imagine a [67:37] scenario where you know Eisenot would [67:40] make a coalition with Mansur Abbas not [67:42] of course the TB be uh you know others [67:45] who are very clearly anti-Israel. I mean [67:47] I would argue that also Abbas is [67:49] Islamist in a way. Um that's what [67:51] they're known for, right? Um so I'm just [67:55] trying to imagine how would that look [67:57] like and and would anybody get away with [67:59] with trying to form a coalition that [68:01] would include these parties that are [68:03] clearly and and openly anti-Israel? [68:06] I think when it comes to the joint list, [68:08] that's most likely like 99% [68:12] that's not going to happen. Uh when it [68:14] comes to Ram, we have seen some [68:15] variability, which as you mentioned [68:17] correctly, it is an Islamist party. It [68:19] has its roots in actually the Muslim [68:21] Brotherhood. Uh that being said, [68:23] Mansorbas himself has been slightly less [68:26] uh extreme in his statements and in his [68:28] the positions that he's taken. Uh is it [68:30] possible that they would? Uh it's [68:32] something that's been floated a lot. Uh [68:34] it remains to be seen if that's [68:36] something that they would really be [68:37] willing to uh do. But when we're talking [68:39] about 18 seats, so combining rum and the [68:42] the joint list, uh this is significant [68:45] influence on any legislation that goes [68:47] forward. And I think one of the main [68:49] concerns for the people of Israel, which [68:51] as a majority tends to skew center [68:53] right, the entire population, is that [68:56] the an a group that large, that many [68:59] seats in a government, would be able to [69:01] block any sort of security measures that [69:04] Israel needs to take. uh whether it's [69:05] taking action against the Islamic [69:07] Republic or action againstah or action [69:10] against Hamas in Gaza and disarming them [69:12] and ensuring that Israelis are secure [69:14] both Arabs and Jews of course uh that is [69:16] something that we don't want to see be [69:19] beholden uh to parties or to individuals [69:22] in the Knesset who are not interested in [69:24] the safety and security and you know [69:27] life of the state of Israel itself. So [69:29] it would be it's very hard to believe uh [69:31] that they would be in a coalition with [69:33] with Gotti Eisenhot. I mean Eisenhot is [69:35] a patriot. He has a decorated record as [69:38] the the chief of staff of the army. It's [69:40] very hard to believe uh that he would do [69:42] that. But again, you know, we've we've [69:44] seen stranger alliances in politics. So [69:46] at this point, we'll just have to wait [69:48] and see. [69:49] >> Excellent. Emily, thank you so much. Um, [69:51] and again, Gotti Eisenot, head of the [69:54] Yashar, the straightforward party, is [69:55] coming out with an official statement [69:57] saying, "If these indeed are the [69:59] official results, we're going to come [70:00] back to you throughout the night, Emily, [70:02] with your excellent analysis and you're [70:04] on the ground. Um, if these are indeed [70:06] the results, Gotti Eisenhot is saying he [70:07] will work immediately to put together a [70:09] coalition. Even though his party Yashar [70:12] is estimated according to these polls to [70:14] be fewer votes than Netanyahu's Liku, [70:17] the overall change block as it's being [70:20] called here in English, Guusha Shinu in [70:21] Hebrew, is is expected to get slightly [70:24] more seats than the Netanyahu block. And [70:26] again, according to Amit Seagal at [70:28] Channel 12 News, the lead uh one of the [70:30] leading uh analysts here in Israel, [70:33] Herzog is expected to give Eisenhot the [70:36] mandate to first try to put together a [70:38] coalition. Before we go, actually, let's [70:40] bring on our next guest. We have Rafi [70:42] Eyes from our broadcast partners at [70:44] Israel 365 producer. Can we get Rafi [70:47] Eyes um on the call? [70:48] >> And I want to say I mean I mean Emily's [70:51] insights and what she shared with us [70:52] from the ground. It was really really [70:54] insightful and interesting and we're [70:56] going to probably keep discussing, you [70:58] know, her impressions and of course the [71:01] exit polls that we just got and that [71:04] we're sharing with you now live. We want [71:06] you guys to look at these numbers that [71:08] um were actually shared with us and Dan [71:12] was trying to break down about what do [71:15] those numbers actually mean and who [71:17] would be able to form a government if [71:20] any without having a joint coalition [71:25] which seems to be the most um I think [71:29] likely scenario at this point. Is that [71:31] the correct assessment then as we're [71:32] waiting for our guest? It it is right. [71:35] We're looking again at um we're looking [71:37] at the the the early polls that are the [71:40] close. They're not official. These are [71:41] not official results. You see these are [71:43] the top three channels. There's another [71:44] channel and that's channel 14. Channel [71:46] 14 has been likened to Israel's sort of [71:48] Fox News. It is very much a right-wing [71:50] nationalistic network. Um and it's the [71:52] only one that's saying Netanyahu and the [71:54] Netanyahu block, I should say, has an [71:56] outright majority. By the way, once [71:58] again, thanks to our friends at Hapetek, [72:00] the Pekk or the the slip, the voting [72:02] slip, who are giving us these results in [72:04] English and putting everything together. [72:06] And we will have uh Bernard from the [72:09] Pekk later on in the program. [72:11] >> Let's talk about the raffle. [72:13] >> Let's talk about I do. And I want to [72:16] mention a couple things, friends. Um [72:18] first of all, if you are joining us from [72:20] Visrad 24, again, welcome to viewers all [72:22] over the world. If you're joining us [72:24] from Israel 365, please jump over to our [72:27] platform, Middle East 24, and just give [72:29] us a follow. We're on YouTube. You can [72:31] catch this show and lots of excellent [72:33] live content. We're on X, we're on [72:34] Instagram, we're on Facebook. We have a [72:36] landing page if you get confused. It's [72:38] middle east 24.org. And there's an [72:40] excellent raffle for really, really good [72:42] causes that we're doing right now. And [72:44] it's called the Dream Raffle. And anyone [72:46] can go to the Dream Raffle and use our [72:48] link. You can find it on all of our [72:50] pages to enter. You buy a ticket. I [72:52] believe it tickets $25 and it all goes [72:54] to really good charitable causes like [72:57] buying ambulances and medical support um [73:00] in Israel and you have a chance to win a [73:02] $1.3 million luxury apartment in [73:05] Jerusalem. Hey, do you want a luxury [73:07] apartment in Jerusalem? [73:08] >> Yes. And I'm going to ask if I'm [73:10] allowed. [73:11] >> You should. I think I'm going to as [73:12] well. [73:13] >> I would love. [73:14] >> Those proceeds go to charity. All those [73:16] proceeds go to charity. Some of it um I [73:18] will say goes to to help support us here [73:20] at Middle East 24. We are a nonprofit [73:22] and and our friends at Israel 365, but [73:24] the vast majority of that is going to [73:26] this charity to support really really [73:28] good causes. Um and so that we can keep [73:30] bringing you um this excellent content [73:33] and live. We're going to be going now to [73:36] uh our friend Rafi Ice from Israel 365. [73:39] I'm not seeing him on the waiting list. [73:46] >> Yes, please. If there's questions, by [73:48] the way, viewers, if if wherever you [73:50] are, ask us questions and we will try to [73:52] address them. And producer, let's get [73:54] Rafie on while we do this. [73:58] >> All right. Well, we have a lot of [74:00] comments. We just want to let you guys [74:01] know that we do appreciate your comments [74:04] and questions, remarks, of course, your [74:06] opinions that you're uh sharing with us [74:08] right now on our live uh on Vizigrad 24 [74:12] and Middle East 24 on X and YouTube. [74:14] Again, follow us, subscribe to our [74:15] channels. We have so much excellent [74:18] content just for you that is coming from [74:20] across the Middle East, North Africa. [74:21] And of course, now our live coverage, [74:24] exclusive live special coverage of the [74:26] historic Israeli elections. I I want to [74:28] say there's a lot of people just [74:30] commenting on who do they like and who [74:31] are they voting for um in this [74:34] elections. I think uh you know you can [74:36] see kind of a lot of uh BB is a king uh [74:40] kind of comments and then there are ones [74:42] who are saying you know some are [74:45] opposing um and then you know I'm seeing [74:49] some questions as well um and talking [74:53] about the the importance of these [74:56] elections um one of the comments I I [75:01] kind of got my attention it was that Um, [75:04] Israel should look at France, UK, [75:07] Norway, Spain, um, basically and predict [75:10] what will become of Israel, its capital, [75:13] law of return, Iran, and Gaza if the [75:16] Arabs take control. It's just that [75:19] simple. Um, very interesting. I would [75:23] love to, of course, hear your guys' [75:25] thoughts. And I want to welcome Rafi. [75:27] Hi, Rafi. Thank you for joining our [75:29] live. [75:29] >> Hello. [75:30] >> About the [75:31] >> pleasure. Pleasure to be here. Thank you [75:32] for having me. Excellent to have you, [75:34] Rafie. Rafie from Israel 365, who is our [75:36] broadcast partner, and this is being [75:37] live streamed on the Israel 365 uh [75:40] YouTube page. And we're doing the [75:42] raffle, the promotion for really good [75:44] causes here in Israel. And if you enter [75:45] to win that raffle, then you can have a [75:48] chance at winning a $1.3 million luxury [75:51] apartment in Jerusalem. I think I'm [75:52] going to do that myself. Ay's going to [75:54] do that. Rafie, I don't know. I think we [75:55] could all use We could all use a luxury [75:58] apartment in Jerusalem. Rafie, you're [75:59] seeing these results for the first time. [76:01] Um what are you thinking? What are you [76:04] seeing? What what is your predictions [76:05] now that you see these first exit polls? [76:08] >> Um [76:10] I I have two different thoughts. Um the [76:12] first is there's there still is a pretty [76:15] significant disparity between the exit [76:17] polls. So for instance um a Victor [76:20] Lieberman's party is estimated to be [76:23] either at five or at nine. That four [76:26] that four seat different is actually [76:28] pretty significant. [76:30] Um [76:31] and the the second thought that I have [76:35] on just on the exit polls is even if um [76:40] GDIT uh has [76:43] um a larger coalition natural coalition [76:47] than BV. Um the Arabs the higher Arab [76:52] turnout favored the joint list a lot [76:55] more than it favored Rahm. which means [76:57] that even though Rahm previously sat in [76:59] a coalition, uh it does not look like [77:02] Rahm gets him over that 60 threshold. Um [77:07] so which creates an even larger hurdle, [77:10] right? Last time when Bennett included [77:12] Rahm, it was to get over that 60 [77:14] threshold. This time Ram doesn't get you [77:17] over the 60 threshold and Israelis are [77:19] going to be more reluctant to uh have an [77:23] Arab party that's a Muslim party that's [77:25] part of the as part of the coalition. [77:27] But Isakat's going to require Ahmed [77:30] Tibbe in order to actually get over the [77:34] hump and become you know some kind of uh [77:37] let's say caretaker prime minister. Um, [77:40] you know, we we also you also talked [77:42] about the um double envelope votes. I've [77:46] seen estimates of 600,000 or 650,000 [77:51] um of those votes. It's like, you know, [77:53] 90 something% soldiers. So, we're really [77:56] talking about a huge sway, a huge [78:00] difference in what we're seeing now [78:02] versus what we could actually see in [78:04] three, four days. And the soldiers tend [78:06] to be more on the right. So, right, you [78:08] know, like we go back to the 1990s, BB [78:12] goes to sleep thinking that he's not [78:13] going to be prime minister and he wakes [78:15] up and now he is the prime minister and [78:17] he and he defeats Shimon Perez because [78:19] of the soldiers and the soldiers have [78:22] been fighting. Um, they they don't want [78:24] a leftwing government. They might want [78:26] the karadium to be conscripted because [78:29] they've been working really really hard, [78:32] but I don't think that they're going to [78:34] vote to the to the left. they're going [78:36] to vote to the right. Um, so I I'm [78:39] predicting that it it's going to be the [78:42] hand of the right is going to become [78:43] much stronger and even if Eisenhott is [78:45] given the first chance, uh, he's not [78:47] going to be able to form a the coalition [78:49] that he wants and it's going to be some, [78:52] uh, let's say difficult negotiation with [78:54] with BB. But I actually like to think, [78:56] yeah, [78:57] >> just wanted to ask you a couple [78:58] questions on this regard. So, first of [79:00] all, I think TB is out of the questions. [79:02] For those of you who don't know, TB is [79:03] the head of the joint list. His name [79:05] also rhymes with BB. So BB tends to use [79:08] him in a kind of a lot of campaign ads. [79:10] BB, not TB. We're talking about Ahmed [79:12] TB. Um and and a lot of people I have to [79:15] say um in in the mainstream Israeli [79:18] politics dislike him because he's very [79:20] adamant, but he is seen as one of the [79:22] smarter and and he's actually known to [79:24] be despite Arab being his first language [79:27] to be the Knesset member with the [79:29] highest level of Hebrew uh the best [79:32] Hebrew speaker in all of the Knesset, [79:34] which is uh ironic and amusing and [79:36] people tend to have a good time going [79:37] back and forth with him even if they [79:39] disagree. But however um he is separate
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