Transcript [00:00] Hey everyone. [00:01] >> [snorts] [00:01] >> So, something [00:03] has been happening in this war that we [00:05] have to talk about, which is which has [00:07] to do with the state of Saudi-US [00:10] relations. So, we're going to go back to [00:11] May. I'm I'm building off of a number of [00:15] articles in this video, but mainly of a [00:17] New York Times report that is making the [00:19] rounds that was published 2 days ago. [00:21] Something happened and and here's what [00:23] it talks about. It talks about May. [00:25] Something happened in May that [00:27] didn't make too many headlines, but it's [00:29] one of the most important turning points [00:31] in the war, one of the most important [00:33] developments to come out of the war. [00:35] The Trump administration, at the time [00:36] you'll remember, launched what they [00:38] called Project Freedom, which was a [00:40] mission to escort commercial shipping [00:42] through the Strait of Hormuz, [00:43] but it collapsed immediately. It [00:45] basically didn't happen, and that was [00:47] because Saudi Arabia refused to let US [00:49] forces use their airspace. So, you have [00:52] an ally, a purported ally of the United [00:54] States or a protectorate of the United [00:55] States, in the middle of a war saying no [00:58] to the president of the United States. [01:00] So, Trump called Crown Prince uh uh [01:03] Mohammed bin Salman, MBS, [01:05] uh 3 days in a row. [01:07] This is all in the New York Times piece. [01:09] Vance called him, Witcoff called him, [01:11] Kushner called him. The Saudis held [01:13] their ground, and I want to walk through [01:15] what's been going on between between uh [01:17] Washington and Saudi Arabia, why the [01:20] Saudis are hedging, what China is doing [01:22] to take advantage of it, and why, [01:24] believe it or not, all of this may be [01:25] making Israel more important to America, [01:28] not less. So, let's set the scene. Iran [01:30] effectively closes the Strait of Hormuz [01:33] early in the war. [01:34] Okay, let's just review the details. 20% [01:37] of the world's energy pass through that [01:38] strait. The US tries to organize an [01:41] escort mission, naval and air power, to [01:43] protect commercial shipping during the [01:45] ceasefire. Central Command didn't even [01:47] consult with the Saudis in advance, and [01:49] then when the Saudi officials found out, [01:51] they said American forces could not use [01:53] their airspace for it. The fear in Saudi [01:56] Arabia was that letting the US operate [01:58] from their soil would drag them deeper [02:00] into the war and make them a bigger [02:02] target for Iranian retaliation. [02:06] Um, quoted in this piece is a guy named [02:08] Hussein Ibish. He's a scholar [02:11] um from the Arab Gulf States Institute [02:13] and he had a great line. He said, [02:15] "America starts a big fight, then gets [02:17] bored and walks away. It's like Lucy and [02:19] the football." [02:20] They're all feeling like Charlie Brown [02:22] on the ground. [02:25] It's a great quote. [02:27] Um, he's describing how a long time [02:29] American ally, Saudi Arabia, now sees [02:32] the US [02:33] uh as a as an unreliable country that [02:36] keeps setting up the field goal and [02:38] putting away and and pulling and you [02:40] know, then pulling the ball away. And [02:42] this isn't the first time. If you go [02:43] back to 2019, Iranian drones and [02:46] missiles attacked Saudi oil facilities [02:49] at Abqaiq and Khurais. [02:52] They knocked out about half of Saudi oil [02:53] production overnight. Trump did not [02:55] retaliate. The Saudis were bitter over [02:58] that. I'm not arguing that Trump should [03:00] have. I'm just saying this is what [03:01] happened. [03:02] Uh so when the current war started, they [03:04] were already like looking a little [03:06] sideways at Trump. Like does he have is [03:08] he going to follow through? [03:11] And [03:12] what's remarkable is what happened right [03:14] after the ceasefire took hold. [03:16] Iranian missiles had already attacked [03:18] Saudi Arabian energy installations. [03:20] They'd attacked the US Embassy in [03:21] Riyadh. Saudi Arabia was getting [03:23] pummeled by Iran. [03:25] And the Saudis called this an [03:27] existential threat. They expelled Iran's [03:29] military attache. You'd think that that [03:31] was like, you know, they were totally [03:33] hardline, want nothing ever to do with [03:35] the Iranians again, mortal enemy. [03:37] Instead, on the very morning after the [03:39] ceasefire, when Iran's foreign minister [03:42] tried to call all the Gulf states and [03:44] try to and try to start patching things [03:46] up, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, [03:50] none of them were willing to talk to the [03:51] Iranian foreign minister, but the Saudis [03:53] did. [03:55] The Saudis were willing to talk to him [03:56] and they started they started you you [03:59] know they they they got the lines of [04:00] communication open again between Saudi [04:02] Arabia and Iran. [04:04] Now, that doesn't mean that the Saudis [04:06] were abandoning the US position. [04:09] They're doing what they all what they're [04:10] actually doing is what they always do. [04:13] Uh [04:14] if you follow if you followed my channel [04:16] and what I do in the Israel 365 news [04:18] channel, please make sure you go over [04:19] there and check out what we're doing. [04:21] Good stuff. We just [04:23] we've been putting up some good [04:24] interviews. So, check that out. Israel [04:25] 365 news YouTube channel. There's links [04:28] in this description of the video. But if [04:30] you've been actually following my [04:32] coverage of Saudi Arabia as they come up [04:35] in the news over the course of the last [04:36] year or so, I I always point out that [04:39] the Saudis are the ultimate hedgers. [04:42] They play every side simultaneously. [04:45] This is what they always do. [04:47] Okay, this is their their game. Playing [04:50] all sides. Hedging their bets, making [04:52] sure that they're [04:54] that they're sort of allies with [04:55] everybody. [04:56] So, MBS, the Crown Prince, reportedly [04:59] warned Trump about the risks of this war [05:02] before it started. And then, [05:05] according to people briefed by US [05:06] officials, he later pushed Trump to [05:08] finish the job and take the regime down. [05:10] Which which of course he denies, but [05:12] that was also reported in the New York [05:13] Times. [05:14] And then as the war dragged on, he [05:16] pivoted again [05:17] toward pushing for a settlement. So, [05:20] even within this war, he's changed sides [05:22] a few seemingly changed sides a few [05:23] times or hedged. [05:25] They're always looking which way the [05:26] wind is blowing. At the same time, [05:28] Saudi Arabia and the UAE reportedly [05:31] carried out secret retaliatory strikes [05:33] against Iran during the war. But MBS was [05:36] notable was was apparently reportedly [05:40] less enthusiastic about that than the [05:42] Emiratis. That's not surprising. [05:45] Analysts who study this closely are now [05:47] describing it as a as a kind of [05:49] doctrine. [05:51] Meaning this hedging. It's not just that [05:53] they're, you know, wishy-washy or [05:55] flip-flopping, but this is their [05:57] doctrine. [05:58] Um there's a piece uh there's another [06:00] piece that I uh drew off for this video [06:03] uh from the National Interest. The piece [06:06] is titled The Iran War and Saudi [06:08] Arabia's strategy of self-reliance. This [06:11] is from a week ago by Amir Hanjani. [06:15] Okay? And there you see it I mean you [06:17] see it right there in the in the [06:18] headline. [06:20] Um Riyadh has long understood that [06:22] Washington won't protect it. The Iran [06:23] war has only confirmed the wisdom of its [06:25] hedging strategy. This is who they are. [06:28] They hedge. [06:29] They are the ultimate hedgers. So Amir [06:30] Hanjani writing in the National Interest [06:33] says that um frames it as Riyadh [06:36] treating its defense ties with China [06:39] cuz it has defense ties with China, [06:41] extensive. They buy lots of Chinese [06:43] equipment, especially in the area of air [06:46] defenses and ballistic missile uh [06:49] a technology and equipment. And uh that [06:52] doesn't mean they buy missiles. They buy [06:53] stuff to make missiles. Uh they also [06:56] have this defense pact with Pakistan, [06:58] which which amounted to nothing cuz [07:00] Pakistan did not come to their aid [07:02] against Iran, but whatever. They have a [07:03] defense pact with Pakistan. [07:05] So you see [07:07] you and they also have the relationship [07:09] with America, right? So this is this is [07:11] Saudi Arabia. These are all pieces of [07:13] their broader strategy of their of how [07:15] they envision self-reliance, that they [07:18] that they have their fingers in every [07:19] pot. [07:21] Okay. [07:22] Um meaning they're to use the words of [07:24] Hanjani, they're sustaining their ties [07:26] with the United States while hedging [07:28] against the limits of those ties. That's [07:31] the whole Saudi posture in one line. [07:33] Keep Washington close enough to matter, [07:35] but never close enough to depend on [07:37] entirely. [07:40] Okay. Now Now here's the part that [07:41] should be worrisome [07:44] um to to America to Washington. [07:48] There are some analysts who are arguing [07:50] that the US created this dynamic that [07:52] they're at that they're that this whole [07:55] dynamic with Saudi Arabia is because of [07:57] America. Now whether that's true or not [07:59] is a is a judgment call. But let me lay [08:01] it out what they say. [08:04] By refusing to give the Saudis a binding [08:07] security guarantee [08:09] by restricting missile sales to the [08:11] Saudis as they have [08:13] and by tying any Saudi Israel [08:16] normalization to a peace process that [08:18] the that the Gaza war made politically [08:21] impossible for the Saudis. Remember the [08:23] Saudis have a very [08:25] uh fundamentalist very religious Sunni [08:28] population [08:29] that that you know normalizing with [08:32] Israel we think of it as like oh yeah [08:34] the Saudis you know they could do what [08:35] they want to it's really not so simple [08:37] with their people. [08:39] So they [08:42] So the Saudis look at this situation [08:43] where they don't really have a binding [08:44] security guarantee. There's missiles [08:47] that are restricted that they can't buy [08:50] from the US. [08:52] They're always being pressured by [08:53] America to get into this normalization [08:55] with Israel and this Gaza and the Gaza [08:58] war makes that very difficult. [09:01] So Washington [09:03] through all of this this from the Saudi [09:05] perspective is pushing Saudi Arabia [09:08] towards this kind of hedging towards the [09:09] self-reliance. [09:11] Including reported movement towards [09:14] um some sort of nuclear program. They're [09:17] looking for domestic nuclear energy. [09:19] They've been talking to the Americans [09:20] about it. [09:23] So [09:25] MBS the leader of Saudi Arabia the Crown [09:27] Prince is he's trying to have it every [09:29] way. He wants to support the US [09:30] publicly. He wants to hedge against [09:32] Iran. He wants to build out Chinese and [09:35] Pakistani security relationships. [09:38] Right? That's his insurance policy. [09:41] And [09:43] and he he wants to make sure that Saudi [09:44] Arabia never ends up on the wrong side [09:46] if everything goes sideways. [09:50] So, in the background, and this is [09:51] important, Saudi Arabia has been talking [09:53] directly to Iran the whole time. [09:57] Think about that. They've been [09:59] They've never cut off communication with [10:00] them. [10:01] That diplomatic opening goes back to [10:03] 2023. China brokered a reconciliation [10:06] agreement between [10:08] um [10:09] Iran and Saudi Arabia. I've covered this [10:11] before. The Saudi foreign minister is in [10:14] Beijing this week, I should add. [10:17] Okay? And and uh that was another [10:18] article that I another article that I [10:20] drew off of for this video is this one [10:22] in The Diplomat. After Iran war, China's [10:24] Middle East strategy will prioritize the [10:26] Gulf. [10:27] China has been kind of [10:28] um joined at the hip with Iran for a [10:30] long time. [10:31] And now they're they're seeing which way [10:33] the wind is blowing, and they're also [10:34] seeing that America is is kind of [10:36] waffling [10:38] or not waffling, but America is not so [10:40] trusted by the Gulf states. The Gulf [10:42] states are feeling a little bit betrayed [10:44] and a little bit unsure how how much [10:46] resolve America has. What does America [10:47] really want here? [10:49] And are we on our own? [10:51] And China is looking to capitalize on [10:54] that and and uh and sell all of them on [10:58] a hedge where they deepen their [10:59] relationship with China. So, the Chinese [11:01] are capitalizing on the situation as [11:03] you'd expect them to. [11:05] And as I said, the Saudi foreign [11:06] minister is in Beijing this week. We [11:08] should watch to see if anything comes [11:09] out of that. We'll be paying attention [11:11] to that. [11:12] Meanwhile, [11:14] the Saudis are negotiating overland [11:16] routes and Red Sea infrastructure to [11:19] bypass the Hormuz Strait entirely. [11:21] They're looking for other ways, more [11:22] permanent workarounds. [11:24] Um because whatever, they don't want to [11:26] rely on the Hormuz Strait remaining [11:29] open. [11:32] Sorry, I had to cough. [11:34] So this war gets interesting [11:35] geopolitically. [11:37] Right? Um [11:40] And that has to do with the whole China [11:41] thing. [11:43] So this report in The Diplomat lays out [11:45] China's calculation clearly. [11:48] I'm going to dig a little deeper on it [11:49] now. [11:50] So Beijing's Middle East strategy, as [11:52] they're watching this war unfold, [11:55] has narrowed down to one [11:56] overriding goal. [11:59] Excuse me. [12:01] Oh boy, little sneezing and coughing [12:03] today. [12:05] They want to keep Saudi Arabia and the [12:07] UAE [12:08] from drifting entirely into the American [12:10] orbit. [12:12] Um [12:13] Now China has already lost ground with [12:17] with the UAE on that front. The UAE [12:20] saw American systems intercept hundreds [12:23] of Iranian missiles and drones aimed at [12:24] its territory, [12:26] and they kind of liked what they saw. [12:29] And um [12:31] so the UAE is much more comfortable with [12:34] the American orbit. [12:36] Uh in this in this piece it quotes an [12:38] Emirati official, Anwar Gargash, calling [12:41] the US the UAE's main security partner, [12:44] pledging to double down on that [12:45] relationship. [12:47] But Saudi Arabia is a is a is the is the [12:49] tougher nut to crack. [12:52] So as I said before, China brokered a [12:53] 2023 Saudi-Iran reconciliation [12:56] agreement, [12:58] which makes it the only outside power [13:00] holding open lines to both Saudi Arabia [13:04] and Tehran simultaneously. [13:07] No one else has that type of leverage. [13:08] No one else has that those [13:10] relationships. [13:12] And and China's not offering Saudi [13:14] Arabia a military alliance. [13:16] Uh China doesn't do those, really. [13:18] What it's offering is [13:20] is is a hedge, is the diplomatic cover, [13:23] economic relationships. [13:26] And and also the sense and the optics [13:29] that Saudi Arabia is not [13:31] fully in Washington's camp and therefore [13:35] that gives them a little bit of leverage [13:36] with with the Americans. [13:39] So the So the one one framing one way to [13:42] put this is that [13:44] the post-war Middle East [13:47] increasingly looks like Iran is bound to [13:51] China as they always have been. [13:53] Israel is of course aligned fully with [13:56] Washington as they always have been. [13:58] And the Gulf states are now all caught [14:00] in between. [14:02] And the Chinese see their whole task as [14:06] keeping Saudi Arabia [14:09] and the UAE which they may or may not be [14:11] failing at, but keeping Saudi Arabia and [14:13] the UAE from crossing over to the US [14:15] side completely. [14:18] That's what they're trying to do. [14:22] Now here's another part that I think a [14:23] lot of the coverage of this is uh [14:26] would miss. [14:28] >> [snorts] [14:29] >> Uh as Saudi Arabia hedges [14:32] and you know, drifts as it looks like [14:34] flip-flopping. [14:36] Uh but as they hedge, hedging is really [14:37] the more accurate cuz it's deliberate. [14:39] They're not It's not that they're [14:40] undecided. They [14:42] They're deliberately hedging. [14:44] So [14:46] there's an interesting development going [14:47] on. US Central Command planners are [14:50] reportedly [14:51] already discussing [14:54] um moving American bases [14:57] and military hardware out of Saudi [14:59] Arabia and the Gulf and into Israel. [15:03] Now that might be surprising to you, but [15:05] let me let me explain something about [15:06] the dynamics of the US-Israel [15:08] relationship. [15:10] While at the level of the media and the [15:12] electorate [15:14] yes, there are concerns where like oh my [15:16] gosh, there's a lot of Americans who are [15:17] turning against Israel and there's all [15:19] this anti-Israel sentiment on both the [15:20] left and the right. [15:22] Yada yada yada. [15:24] But, [15:26] at the level of the defense [15:27] establishment, the Pentagon, [15:30] Central Command, [15:33] they are fully fully fully on board with [15:36] the US-Israel relationship. They know [15:39] because they're out there in the field, [15:40] they're in the in the intelligence [15:41] sharing and the defense and security [15:43] issues, and they know that the only [15:45] reliable partner they have is Israel. [15:48] And at that level, it's not even [15:49] ideological. It's not like Christian [15:51] Zionism. It is [15:53] they get it [15:55] that that's their real partner. [15:57] So, Central Command is looking to move [16:01] American assets out of Saudi Arabia and [16:04] the Gulf [16:06] and into Israel. [16:08] So, think about what that means. For 80 [16:10] years, since [16:11] Franklin Delano Roosevelt's deal with [16:13] Ibn Saud in 1944, Saudi Arabia has been [16:17] the anchor of American positioning in [16:19] the Middle East. [16:22] Okay? And it wasn't just about the oil. [16:24] It's also I mean, militarily also. And [16:27] that arrangement [16:29] is now [16:31] um being questioned by people in the [16:33] military establishment in Central [16:35] Command. [16:37] And in the eyes of the Pentagon [16:39] strategists, [16:41] uh they want to pivot towards Israel. [16:43] So, another piece that I was looking at [16:46] here [16:47] is uh is this piece um [16:50] written by Lee Smith. [16:53] One second. Let me [16:56] get rid of that. [16:57] Uh so, Tablet Magazine columnist Lee [16:59] Smith [17:01] uh wrote a piece here. [17:03] Iran war fallout shifting America's [17:06] Middle East anchor from Riyadh to [17:08] Jerusalem. [17:10] Right? And that's what That's what I'm [17:11] talking about here. [17:12] >> [snorts] [17:13] >> Um so, he was writing uh is is So, Lee [17:15] Smith wrote this piece. He didn't write [17:16] it for Tablet, he wrote it for this [17:18] outlet here. He argues that Israel has [17:20] become, in the words of a former US [17:23] statement that he cites, America's [17:25] unsinkable aircraft carrier. [17:28] That's the reputational shift happening [17:30] right now. The Arab world watched [17:32] Israel's military campaign against Iran. [17:35] Um [17:37] and they [17:39] and they watched it with awe is the word [17:41] that Lee Smith uses, not fear. Awe. They [17:43] Because Listen, you got to remember [17:45] these are all I would I don't want to [17:46] use the word wimps, but it's a good word [17:48] here. [17:49] The Arab states [17:50] they don't want to lift a finger, [17:52] they're always timid, they're always [17:52] afraid of an Iranian drone coming after [17:54] them. [17:55] And they saw Israel go in there and [17:57] boom. [17:59] And they understood what Israel's power [18:01] is. [18:03] And for the first time, some Gulf [18:05] officials are quietly wondering whether [18:07] normalization with Israel isn't [18:09] uh [18:11] isn't such a bad idea. [18:13] But maybe it's a And maybe even it's a [18:15] strategic necessity. [18:19] Because Israel's not going to waffle, [18:21] you know exactly what side they're on. [18:24] They know who Israel is. Forget all the [18:26] rhetoric about hating the Jews and Islam [18:28] and all that. They know exactly that [18:30] Israel [18:31] has clear interests, will protect them, [18:34] and that Israel is the most powerful [18:35] nation in the in the region. They're [18:36] seeing it. [18:39] So, and and there's a sharper version of [18:41] this argument, too. [18:43] There are there are some analysts who [18:45] are pointing out how strange the Saudi [18:47] position is, right? Iran attacks Saudi [18:49] territory directly, repeatedly, [18:52] right? During this war. [18:55] And Israel, in nearly 80 years of [18:57] existence, has never attacked them. [19:00] Like everyone talk Oh, Israel they [19:01] These countries know that Israel's not [19:03] going to attack them and never never has [19:04] and never will. [19:06] And yet, the Saudis [19:09] have shown more willingness to [19:11] accommodate Iran, the country that [19:13] bombed it, [19:15] than Israel, the country that hasn't and [19:17] never will. [19:19] So, if Saudi Arabia were playing pure [19:21] realpolitik, [19:23] closer ties with Israel, [19:26] access to their defense technology, [19:28] deeper security cooperation would be the [19:29] obvious move. Instead, it's the [19:30] opposite. Now, I want to be careful here [19:32] cuz I've said this before and I've [19:33] gotten burned by events. This isn't the [19:35] first time that people have declared [19:36] this that Saudi-Israel normalization is [19:40] is in the offing. October 7th, October [19:43] 7th blew up a deal that was reportedly [19:44] days away by some accounts. So, don't [19:47] take this as a prediction. [19:49] Take it as a data point. Unreliability [19:51] from Riyadh, [19:53] contrasted against Israel's performance [19:55] in this war, is pushing American [19:57] strategic thinking toward Jerusalem, [19:59] whether or not the politics of the [20:00] region catch up. [20:02] There's a warning in all of this, too, [20:04] and I don't want to skip past it. [20:06] As Israel's profile as America's most [20:08] important ally grows, so does the target [20:11] on its back. [20:14] So, and there's real concern and it's [20:16] laid out well by Lee Smith. [20:17] >> [laughter] [20:18] >> There's my grandson. [20:20] That as the US leans more on Israel [20:22] militarily, the anti-Semitic conspiracy [20:25] theories about who dragged America into [20:28] war [20:29] will get louder. [20:31] And that's happening both on the left [20:32] and on the right. [20:34] Now, the actual reason the US went to [20:35] war wasn't to do Israel a favor. [20:38] Uh it was the nuclear program. It was [20:41] Iran's destabilizing um actions [20:44] in Hormuz that they that they talked [20:46] about already in the in the defense [20:48] strategy document. [20:50] Um and Saudi Arabia wanted it as much as [20:52] anyone. [20:54] But, look, here's where this leaves us. [20:56] Saudi Arabia isn't breaking with [20:57] America, but it's not but it doesn't [20:59] fully trust America. It's hedging [21:01] towards China, towards Iran, toward its [21:04] own new infrastructure for overland [21:06] shipping routes, [21:07] and maybe even towards its own nuclear [21:09] program down the road. [21:11] China is doing everything it can to keep [21:13] that door open. [21:15] Um, and Israel isn't just holding its [21:17] ground. It's becoming [21:19] uh the one stable, powerful American [21:23] ally in the region. [21:25] So, that's the story what's going on [21:26] here. Let me know what you think. Sorry [21:27] we got interrupted by my family coming [21:29] in. But, uh that's what happens when [21:32] when the kids are visiting and thank God [21:33] for that. [21:34] Um, it's a it's a great blessing and uh [21:36] thank you for watching. Please make sure [21:38] to like, subscribe, and uh do all those [21:41] good things. All right, God bless you.
