Transcript [00:00] Hey everybody, so one of the stories we [00:02] have been following most closely [00:05] has been the Lebanon situation. [00:09] And we know that shortly after the MOU [00:13] between the US and Iran which conceded [00:16] some control of Lebanon to the Iranians, [00:19] we also had [00:21] a deal struck between the Israelis and [00:24] the Lebanese [00:25] that basically cut Iran out of things [00:28] and it involved a [00:30] uh [00:31] basically a demand that Israel withdraw [00:34] but Israel with [00:35] being allowed to stay in its positions [00:37] until such time as Hezbollah is disarmed [00:40] and everyone hailed it as this important [00:42] deal including myself and it's really an [00:44] effort for Iran to assert its [00:46] sovereignty against [00:48] I'm sorry for Lebanon to assert its [00:49] sovereignty against Iran. [00:52] But there have been some developments. [00:55] There were two days of talks in Rome [00:58] between the Israeli and and Lebanese [01:00] delegations [01:01] that wrapped up today. So yesterday and [01:04] today Tuesday and Wednesday of this week [01:07] and we're going to get into everything [01:09] that happened there. We're going to take [01:10] a look at a number of different news [01:12] items. So let's get right to it. [01:14] Here is the first headline we're going [01:16] to see today. [01:17] Okay, Israel seeks Israel heads to Rome [01:20] seeking proof of Lebanon's army [01:23] seeking proof Lebanon's army can keep [01:25] Hezbollah out analysis. So what what I'm [01:27] going to do in this video is I'm going [01:28] to first look at [01:31] news items that were published ahead of [01:34] the talks or at the beginning of them. [01:37] Uh meaning yesterday and the day before. [01:40] Or [01:41] no, actually they're both from yesterday [01:42] and then we're going to look at a couple [01:44] of reports coming out of the talks that [01:46] wrapped up just a few hours ago. Okay, [01:48] so let's start with this Jerusalem Post [01:49] report. Again, Israel heads to Rome [01:51] seeking proof of Lebanon's army can keep [01:54] Hezbollah out. [01:56] Israel and Lebanon will open another [01:57] round of direct talks in Rome on [01:59] Tuesday, [02:01] yesterday, at the US Embassy and with [02:03] American mediation in an effort to move [02:06] the political understandings reached in [02:07] Washington to the implementation stage. [02:10] First and foremost, the pilot project in [02:13] South Lebanon. The pilot project is that [02:15] Israel will pull out of some specific [02:19] small areas as a pilot project for the [02:24] Lebanese army to [02:26] and take control of those areas where [02:28] Hezbollah has been removed and show that [02:30] they can [02:31] take and hold area and prevent Hezbollah [02:35] from moving back in. The two-day meeting [02:36] will focus on implementing the framework [02:38] agreement signed on June 26th. Under the [02:41] agreement, Israel is is expected to [02:43] withdraw gradually from two defined [02:45] areas in southern Lebanon and hand them [02:48] over to Lebanese army control. The [02:50] Lebanese army would then be required to [02:52] deploy forces there, dismantle the [02:55] Hezbollah infrastructure, and prevent [02:56] the organization from reestablishing a [02:59] military presence. [03:01] Okay, we're going to jump ahead. [03:03] Talks about Now, look at this. The pilot [03:06] also has a civilian dimension. Under the [03:09] framework agreement, the transfer of [03:10] territory is expected to be accompanied [03:13] by the reconstruction of villages and [03:16] the gradual safe return of displaced [03:18] residents. [03:20] What's the problem with that? The US [03:22] administration wants to determine [03:24] whether the Lebanese army can hold the [03:26] territory and restore civilian life [03:30] without allowing Hezbollah to exploit [03:32] its welfare, reconstruction, and funding [03:35] mechanisms to reestablish its grip on [03:38] the area. That's the tricky situation. [03:40] The displaced people from the area that [03:43] Israel's in are Shiites who are aligned [03:46] with Hezbollah. These towns in southern [03:49] Lebanon that Israel's been destroying, [03:51] it's just like Gaza. Every single home, [03:54] you saw this in a report that I I shared [03:56] the other day, every single home has [03:58] weapons in it. There's missile missile [04:00] launchers in inside homes. These towns [04:04] are basically Hezbollah bases. [04:07] And the people there are aligned with [04:09] Hezbollah. So, if the part of the [04:11] agreement, part of what the plan is, is [04:13] that as the Lebanese take control of [04:15] these areas, there's also the people [04:18] come back and start rebuilding their [04:20] lives, how do you prevent Hezbollah from [04:22] taking over again? [04:25] As the talks begin, the pilot has not [04:27] yet been launched. The IDF has not [04:28] completed its withdrawal from the first [04:30] pilot area. The Lebanese army has not [04:32] assumed full responsibility there, and [04:34] no agreed public timetable has been set. [04:37] The boundaries of the areas, the [04:38] identity of the Lebanese units that will [04:40] be deployed there, and the criteria for [04:42] determining whether Hezbollah has been [04:44] removed, remain disputed. In other [04:46] words, how do you decide what [04:48] constitutes Hezbollah is gone? Who gets [04:51] to decide [04:52] what when we can say, "Yes, this is [04:55] clean of Hezbollah."? [04:58] And what Lebanese units are going to be [05:00] there? The choice of territory has [05:01] itself become a point of contention. [05:03] Lebanon is demanding that the pilot [05:05] areas include locations with a real [05:07] Israeli presence, so that implementation [05:09] would amount to a withdrawal that can be [05:12] presented as a diplomatic achievement. [05:15] Israel prefers to begin with limited [05:17] areas where responsibility can be [05:19] transferred in a controlled manner, and [05:21] the security risk can be reduced. [05:24] Let me explain. [05:26] Well, let's read one more paragraph and [05:27] then I'll explain. This is important. In [05:29] Beirut, the pilot is being presented as [05:32] the first step toward an Israeli [05:33] withdrawal from South Lebanon. In [05:35] Israel, it's being treated first and [05:37] foremost as a test of the Lebanese [05:39] army's capabilities without any advanced [05:42] commitment to further withdrawals. Okay, [05:44] so that is a great [05:46] couple of paragraphs to explain the [05:48] dynamics here. [05:50] Joseph Aoun, [05:52] the president of Lebanon, [05:55] who is [05:56] is the main guy on the other side, who's [05:58] Christian, [06:00] has been taking a very hardline, [06:01] sounding very anti-Israel in all of [06:03] this, but he kind of has to. [06:05] You see, he [06:07] he could find himself dead [06:10] if he doesn't play his cards right here. [06:13] He wants to get rid of Hezbollah, [06:15] but he also has to show that he's not [06:17] capitulating to the Israelis, that he's [06:20] not just allowing the Israelis to [06:22] control this territory, that he's [06:23] fighting for the sovereignty of Lebanon, [06:24] because the big pushback from [06:28] from the Shiites, not only the Shiites [06:30] though, even the Sunnis there, the big [06:31] pushback is how could we allow the [06:34] Zionists to win, how could we allow [06:35] Israel to conquer our territory, how can [06:37] you and when he signed this this [06:39] agreement, the big criticism of Aoun [06:41] when he signed it back at the end of [06:43] June, is that it's basically giving the [06:45] Israelis license to to set up shop in [06:49] Lebanon and he's saying, "No, we're [06:50] going to get them to withdraw." So, he [06:52] has a real need to show the public, [06:55] politically he has a need to show that [06:58] through his work and through these [06:59] negotiations and what this agreement's [07:01] really about is the Israelis withdrawing [07:04] from their positions. [07:05] So, if the Israelis aren't meaning [07:08] aren't withdrawing from meaningful [07:09] positions, he doesn't get that political [07:12] value. Let's read that again. [07:16] Lebanon is demanding that the pilot [07:17] areas include locations with real [07:19] Israeli presidents so that the [07:21] implementation [07:22] can be presented [07:24] as an Israeli withdrawal, as a [07:26] diplomatic achievement. In Beirut, the [07:28] pilot's being presented as a step [07:30] towards full Israeli withdrawal, but [07:31] that's not how Israel views this. Israel [07:33] just wants to not be threatened by [07:35] Hezbollah anymore. [07:37] And therefore, what Israel wants is to [07:39] show Israel's saying like, "Look, we can [07:41] get rid of Hezbollah and we can stay [07:43] here and prevent them from coming back. [07:44] You want to come back? You want you the [07:46] Lebanese government wants to take [07:48] control here? Great. You can take [07:50] control if you prove to us that you're [07:52] not going to let Hezbollah come back and [07:53] that you have the capacity to prevent [07:55] them from coming back. That's what this [07:57] is about. [08:01] Now, [08:03] the main dispute concerns the order of [08:05] the steps. [08:07] Lebanon is demanding that the IDF [08:09] withdraw first, arguing that the [08:11] Lebanese army cannot enter an area where [08:13] Israeli forces remain deployed. [08:17] Israel's demanding proof that the [08:19] Lebanese army can locate weapons, [08:21] dismantle tunnels, [08:23] positions, and depots and prevent [08:24] Hezbollah operatives from returning [08:27] before it withdraws. Before it [08:28] withdraws. [08:30] The American outline is intended to [08:32] narrow the gap through a coordinated [08:34] move. [08:36] The US would confirm that the Lebanese [08:38] force is ready to deploy. The IDF would [08:41] withdraw according to agreed time in in [08:44] agreed timetable. And the Lebanese army [08:46] would enter the area immediately. [08:49] The sides have not yet agreed on the [08:51] conditions that must be met before US [08:53] approval is granted or whether Israel [08:56] will be bound by Washington's [08:57] determination that the area is ready for [09:00] transfer. [09:02] Meaning, if Washington determines that [09:04] the area is ready for transfer, but [09:06] Israel says no, it's not. [09:08] Is Israel bound by Washington's is [09:11] Washington the arbiter? And Israel then [09:13] has to withdraw [09:15] and give over an area that it's not [09:17] confident is cleared? [09:20] That they have to then give it over to [09:22] the Lebanese government and the Lebanese [09:23] army, that's not so clear. [09:25] Israel is not satisfied satisfied with [09:27] the deployment of Lebanese soldiers [09:29] alone. It is demanding effective and [09:31] sustained control on the ground, [09:33] including preventing the entry of armed [09:36] elements not subordinate to the state, [09:38] collecting weapons, dismantling [09:40] underground infrastructure, and blocking [09:42] Hezbollah operatives from returning in [09:44] civilian guise. This is what This is [09:46] what Israel needs. [09:48] Israel's also seeking US oversight of [09:51] the units deployed in the area and of [09:53] how their missions are carried out. [09:55] Under the proposal being discussed, [09:57] Lebanese soldiers deployed in the pilot [09:59] areas would undergo American training [10:01] and vetting [10:02] to ensure they're not linked to [10:03] Hezbollah because like a a huge [10:05] percentage of the [10:07] a sizable percentage of the Lebanese [10:08] army is Shiite and aligned with [10:12] Hezbollah. You have families where one [10:13] guy serves in the Lebanese army and one [10:14] guy serves in Hezbollah. [10:19] US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said [10:21] Washington was prepared to help [10:23] strengthen the Lebanese army's ability [10:25] to hold the territory, but he did not [10:27] publicly confirm all the details on the [10:28] screening mechanism. In Israel, the [10:30] composition of units entering the area [10:32] is regarded as a central condition for [10:34] any withdrawal agreement. [10:37] Another unresolved question is who will [10:39] determine whether the pilot has [10:41] succeeded. Right, cuz the whole thing is [10:43] we're going to do this pilot and if it [10:44] works, then Israel will withdraw from [10:46] more areas and eventually Israel [10:48] withdraws from Lebanon. [10:50] Hezbollah's gone. [10:51] But they haven't But how do you decide [10:53] if it has succeeded? The sides have not [10:55] agreed whether a Lebanese army [10:57] declaration that the area has been [10:59] cleared will be sufficient. [11:01] Whether US Central Command will be [11:03] authorized to decide or whether Israel [11:05] will be able to delay the withdrawal on [11:07] grounds that the infrastructure or [11:08] operatives remain. We can already look [11:11] down range and see what's coming, folks. [11:14] We can see a situation where Israel's [11:15] refusing to move because they're saying [11:17] Hezbollah is still is still here and [11:19] Hezbollah operatives are still moving in [11:22] or still have the capacity to move in or [11:23] they look at the pilot program and say, [11:25] "We're not satisfied with the job [11:27] they're doing." [11:29] And the Americans say, "We are [11:30] satisfied. Israel has to withdraw." [11:32] Pressuring on Pressuring Israel? [11:34] We can see it coming. [11:37] We can see it coming. [11:40] Even the term [11:41] dismantling [11:43] Hezbollah infrastructure [11:46] Oh, sorry. I skipped an important [11:47] sentence. The IDF's right to act after [11:49] the area's transferred in the event of a [11:51] violation has also not been settled. [11:53] What happens if Israel pulls out, [11:54] creates the pilot area, Lebanese army's [11:57] in there, and then Hezbollah starts [11:58] operating in the pilot area, and the [11:59] Lebanese army's in there? What does [12:01] Israel do? [12:03] Even the term dismantling Hezbollah [12:05] infrastructure has not yet been defined [12:07] in operational terms. It's unclear [12:09] whether the Lebanese army will be [12:11] required only to seize visible weapons [12:13] and dismantle positions, or whether it [12:15] will also have to search private homes, [12:18] expose underground infrastructure, and [12:20] arrest operatives. [12:23] Another sensitive question concerns [12:24] Hezbollah members living in the area and [12:27] how they can be allowed to return as [12:29] civilians while being prevented from [12:31] renewing military activity, as I [12:33] described before. [12:37] There's also no agreement on the meaning [12:39] of the pilot itself. It is seen as a [12:41] limited move that can be halted if it [12:43] doesn't meet its goals. That's what a [12:45] pilot is. [12:47] Each area would would be transferred [12:48] separately and only if the Lebanese army [12:50] proves that it can prevent Hezbollah's [12:52] return. [12:53] And only then would another withdrawal [12:55] be considered. [12:56] But in Beirut, the pilot is being [12:58] presented as the beginning of a gradual [13:00] process intended to end with full [13:02] Israeli withdrawal and a restoration of [13:04] Lebanese sovereignty over the entire [13:06] south. [13:08] That difference may allow progress in [13:10] the first stage, but it is expected to [13:13] resurface immediately afterward and [13:16] continuously, I would imagine. [13:19] Israel's not committing in advance to [13:20] additional withdrawals, while Lebanon's [13:22] not prepared to accept an Israeli [13:24] presence without an end date. That is [13:27] key. You notice it also said at the [13:29] beginning of this piece that there was [13:31] no timeline. [13:33] Israel must insist here. Must insist [13:36] that there's nothing tied to timelines, [13:39] set amounts of time by which another [13:41] thing has to happen. It all the [13:43] contingency all has to be everything has [13:46] to be contingent on what happens on the [13:49] ground. And we can we can fight over [13:52] that and come to some Israel has to [13:54] stand firm on what does it mean that [13:56] that Hezbollah is dismantled? [13:58] What does it mean that an area is [13:59] cleared enough and and secure enough to [14:01] be transferred? [14:03] But it can't be tied to a timeline. Once [14:05] things are cuz this is what always [14:06] happens with agreements with Israel. [14:07] Once something's tied to a timeline, [14:09] even if all the conditions aren't met [14:12] that are supposed to be met for the next [14:14] stage of the timeline, when there's a [14:15] time frame involved, everyone starts [14:18] ganging up on Israel and the pressure [14:19] starts. [14:21] Oh, you got to do this. You got to [14:22] withdraw. You got to make this [14:23] concession. And it looks like Israel's [14:25] then violating the agreement because [14:26] they're not making the concession. And [14:28] you know, [14:29] why are you know, because they're [14:30] standing because they're insisting on [14:32] some detail. [14:34] The dates always bottom line. Having a [14:37] date always complicates things for [14:39] Israel. It has to be contingent on [14:40] action. [14:42] The dispute is further sharpened by [14:43] Israel's intention to continue holding a [14:45] security strip near the border even [14:47] after the pilots are activated as long [14:49] as Hezbollah remains arms armed and [14:51] continues to pose a threat. Look, [14:52] Israel's position is very clear. [14:55] Hezbollah is an organization that is [14:57] what its only reason for existence is to [15:01] kill Israelis and to fight Israel and to [15:03] try to destroy Israel. That's its sole [15:05] raison d'être. That's why it was [15:06] created. That's why it's in South [15:08] Lebanon. That's why it exists. [15:10] And as long as that exists and now as [15:12] long as that situation persists, we're [15:14] not going [15:15] to endanger our northern communities. We [15:18] will and if you're going to allow if you [15:19] Lebanon are going to allow either either [15:22] be out of lack of will or out of lack of [15:25] ability. Doesn't matter to us. If you're [15:27] going to allow this militia to attack us [15:29] from your territory, we're going to be [15:31] in your territory. [15:34] We're going to be there. [15:37] From Israel's perspective, the pilot [15:38] areas are part of a broader security [15:40] concept. In Lebanon, there are concerns [15:42] that keeping the strip under IDF control [15:44] will give the Israeli presence a [15:45] permanent character. It might. [15:49] Even if certain areas are transferred to [15:50] the Lebanese army. [15:53] Lebanon threatened last week not to [15:55] participate in the Rome round unless [15:56] Israel first withdrew from the two pilot [15:59] areas. It later backed away from that [16:02] um after the Americans pressured them to [16:03] back away from that. They they [16:05] ultimately agreed [16:07] to [16:08] to come to the talks. [16:10] And then of course Hezbollah [16:13] doesn't agree with the talks, etc. And [16:15] then there's some humanitarian aid as [16:17] well. [16:18] Israel wants to ensure that [16:19] reconstruction funds and the returning [16:21] population are not used to rebuild [16:23] Hezbollah's military infrastructure. [16:25] Civilian and financial oversight [16:27] mechanisms are therefore expected to [16:29] play a major role in the arrangement. [16:34] Israel will seek in Rome to block any [16:36] commitment to an automatic withdrawal [16:38] sequence. [16:40] It's what I was saying before. [16:42] Israel cannot agree to a withdrawal that [16:44] isn't contingent on that doesn't depend [16:47] on Lebanese [16:49] um actions. [16:52] It has to be it has to be based on [16:53] actions. [16:56] Um okay, good. And then we have this [16:58] other this other piece that's also from [17:00] right before it from Itamar Eichner. [17:01] Itamar Eichner is a little to the left [17:03] of of my taste, but he is one of the one [17:06] of the top political reporters in the [17:08] country, writes for Ynet. [17:10] If Hezbollah stays, we stay. Israel sets [17:12] terms before Lebanon talks in Rome. And [17:15] here it it it sites an interview with [17:19] with Yacov Litzman, the ambassador. I [17:22] just want to pull down one piece of [17:23] this. The ambassador said Israel's [17:24] prepared to withdraw once Hezbollah is [17:26] dismantled. Quote, we can withdraw the [17:28] moment that Hezbollah is dismantled. If [17:30] Hezbollah is not dismantled, then we [17:32] have to stay in our security zone [17:33] because we're not going to go back to a [17:35] situation where our citizens are going [17:36] to be threatened by an Iranian proxy [17:38] firing missiles and building tunnels so [17:40] they can attack [17:41] like [snorts] Hamas did on October 7th. [17:43] Asked about the two pilot zones that [17:45] Israel's expected to withdraw from under [17:46] US oversight, Litzman said preparations [17:48] were underway. [17:51] We're working together with CENTCOM and [17:53] the Lebanese Armed Forces to create the [17:54] conditions so that we can actually move [17:57] into a situation where the pilot zones [17:58] are receptive to Lebanese Armed Forces. [18:03] If they're not going to be receptive, if [18:05] Hezbollah is going to stay there, we [18:07] haven't accomplished anything. And [18:08] that's why they're called pilot zones. [18:10] If it works, then we continue to [18:12] withdraw. If it doesn't work, we stay [18:15] where we are. Asked whether the pilot [18:17] zone withdrawals would happen soon, [18:19] Litzman said, I certainly hope they're [18:21] planned for the next few weeks. We're [18:22] working on that together with CENTCOM. [18:25] Meanwhile, the Lebanese diplomatic [18:27] source familiar with the negotiations [18:28] told Reuters on Tuesday that the [18:30] Lebanese Army is ready to gradually take [18:32] control of the villages from which the [18:34] IDF withdraws. [18:36] Okay, so you see that's Israel's [18:38] position. Now, [18:41] this is from today. Report Israeli [18:44] withdrawal from Lebanon could begin [18:46] within hours. High-level talks in Rome [18:47] reportedly yield significant [18:50] breakthroughs regarding the framework [18:51] agreement. While Beirut firmly rules out [18:55] any potential meeting between the [18:56] Lebanese president and Prime Minister [18:58] Netanyahu. He's still refusing to meet [18:59] him. [19:00] Sources in Leb in the Lebanese [19:02] presidential palace told the Lebanese [19:03] television channel MTV that the second [19:06] day of negotiations in Rome, that's [19:08] today, witnessed more significant [19:10] progress and the discussions became [19:12] practical and detailed regarding the [19:14] implementation mechanisms of the [19:16] framework agreement. According to the [19:18] sources, again, these are Lebanese [19:19] government sources, the parties [19:21] discussed the timeline for the start of [19:23] the withdrawal from the pilot areas in [19:25] southern Lebanon. The officials claimed [19:27] that all preparations are being made so [19:29] that the withdrawal will begin in the [19:30] upcoming days or even within hours. They [19:33] added that an announcement is expected [19:34] to define the exact date and expressed [19:37] hope that the process would not be [19:38] delayed beyond the weekend. [19:41] This is so interesting, this next little [19:42] piece here. Look at that. According to [19:45] the sources, further discussions are [19:47] expected later to establish a timetable [19:49] for Israeli withdrawals from the [19:51] additional areas beyond pilot zone. You [19:53] see, that's the Lebanese The Lebanese [19:54] are pushing for timetables. [19:57] Remember what I said before about not [19:59] having a timetable regarding the [20:00] verification mechanism to ensure that [20:02] the areas are demilitarized of weapons [20:04] belonging to Hezbollah, the sources said [20:06] the information would be passed to a [20:08] third party. [20:10] So, who's the third party? Who gets to [20:11] determine [20:13] Who gets to ensure that the area are is [20:15] demilitarized? [20:18] So, the the Lebanese source is saying [20:19] it's a third party. Now, look what he [20:21] says here. This is so interesting. [20:23] Quote, "We are open to the American [20:25] vision [20:26] and we have a natural tendency to prefer [20:29] that the UN bodies like UNIFIL handle [20:33] the verification. [20:34] Several proposals are being discussed. [20:37] >> [laughter] [20:38] >> This is like This is a great sentence. [20:42] We're open to the Americans being the [20:44] ones who make the determination, but we [20:46] prefer the UN. [20:49] I'm sure you do. You see, the UN UNIFIL [20:52] was sitting there in South Lebanon [20:55] officially as a peacekeeping force that [20:57] was meant to [20:59] after resolution 1701 [21:01] uh it was meant to ensure that the whole [21:05] southern part of Lebanon was [21:06] demilitarized and that Hezbollah didn't [21:08] have weapons and all of the Hezbollah [21:10] infrastructure, the tunnel networks and [21:12] all the military build-up in South [21:14] Lebanon happened under the noses of [21:16] UNIFIL and we have evidence that UNIFIL [21:18] actually knew about it. They What [21:20] happened right next to their [21:22] right next to them. They did nothing to [21:24] stop it. Of course, the Lebanese would [21:26] prefer if UNIFIL did it because then [21:28] they don't have to do anything. Then [21:29] Israel doesn't have to because then if [21:31] it's UNIFIL, [21:33] I mean that's never going to happen. [21:34] Israel's never going to agree to that, [21:36] but it's just it's a very telling [21:38] sentence. And look at the at the [21:39] headline in Times of Israel. Just [21:41] confirms what I was saying. Lebanon [21:43] talks in Rome wrap up without specific [21:46] timeline on implementation of pledged [21:47] IDF withdrawals. That you see the [21:49] Israelis, when I say convert it confirms [21:51] that the Israelis are insisting on this. [21:53] No [21:54] set timelines. Timelines bad. US broker [21:58] talks between Israel and Lebanon have [22:00] wrapped up in Rome with the State [22:01] Department spokesman calling the round [22:03] productive and positive. The Americans [22:05] always say that. However, an exact [22:07] timeline for when Israel will fulfill [22:08] its pledges to withdraw from the two [22:11] pilot zones has yet has still not been [22:13] offered. We agreed on the structure and [22:16] guidelines for the pilot zones [22:19] to be finalized and implemented in the [22:21] coming days. Israel agreed agreed to [22:23] withdraw from the pilot zones. [22:26] Um [22:29] Here we go. IDF officials have said that [22:30] while they're ready to implement the [22:32] withdrawal, they have yet to receive a [22:33] directive from the political leadership. [22:35] Lebanese officials accused Israel of [22:37] dragging its feet and threatened not to [22:39] attend the talks in Rome this week. You [22:41] see, for the Lebanese officials, I just [22:43] want to sympathize with them a little [22:44] bit just to explain, not to justify, but [22:46] to explain their behavior. The Lebanese [22:48] officials are being attacked [22:51] by [22:52] not only the Shiites, but also [22:55] a portion of the Sunni population that [22:57] also [22:58] you know, hates the idea of capitulation [23:00] or cooperation with the Jews with the [23:02] Israelis. [23:03] And they have to signal, they have to [23:05] show strength, they have to show that [23:06] they're not just weaklings or giving [23:08] into the Israelis. That they are, you [23:11] know, Hezbollah claimed for years that [23:12] they're the ones defending Lebanon and [23:14] Lebanon ends up getting destroyed and [23:16] the Israelis invade and if they can show [23:18] that they through negotiation [23:22] are [23:23] are forcing the Israelis to withdraw, [23:25] they are reasserting sovereignty over [23:27] Lebanon. [23:29] That's a win. So, the longer it takes [23:32] for Israel to start withdrawing, the [23:33] worse they look. If Israel's not [23:35] withdrawing from anywhere and they're [23:36] out there negotiating with the Israelis [23:39] and agreeing to things with the [23:40] Israelis, but Israel hasn't pulled back [23:41] their soldiers, they look like chumps [23:44] who've just given into the Israelis. [23:45] That's what they're trying to avoid. [23:47] Okay, I'm not saying this to defend [23:48] them, just to explain [23:51] uh their behavior. [23:56] Right, so that's why the Lebanese [23:57] Lebanese officials have accused Israel [23:58] of dragging their feet and they [23:59] threatened not to attend. However, the [24:01] US convinced Beirut to back down [24:04] pledging progress on Israeli [24:06] withdrawals. The Israeli readout on this [24:08] week's talks in Rome addressed the issue [24:09] generally saying the two pilot zones [24:11] were agreed upon. Any further [24:13] implementation is contingent on the [24:15] successful implementation of the initial [24:17] pilot program. [24:19] The pilot zones will serve to test the [24:21] successful expression [24:23] of Lebanese sovereignty through the [24:25] implementation of agreed-upon conditions [24:27] by the Lebanese armed forces and [24:29] verification by a third party, said the [24:31] readout attributed to an Israeli [24:33] official who adds that the United [24:36] Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, [24:37] UNIFIL, and the UN Truce Supervision [24:40] Organization were not discussed and will [24:43] not be part of any verification model. [24:47] So, the Israelis are standing firm, [24:49] they're shutting this down. Listen, [24:51] this is not a great situation, it's not [24:52] perfect, but when you think back, you [24:55] You over the last couple decades and [24:56] what Israel ended up What Israel agreed [24:58] to and lived with with UNIFIL and UNRWA [25:02] and these and agreeing to to [25:05] international guarantees of our security [25:08] and and and saying that you know we can [25:10] live with that. Israel's [25:12] in the post October 7th world Israel [25:14] does not trust these people anymore at [25:17] all. [25:18] We with respect to private property [25:20] discussions continue to be underway for [25:23] a solution which will facilitate the [25:24] removal of contraband weapons while [25:26] Lebanese law is respected. [25:29] Um [25:31] And then at the end here Lebanese [25:33] President Joseph Aoun is slated to meet [25:35] US President Donald Trump on Tuesday. [25:38] That's next Tuesday, right? A week from [25:40] yesterday. The white on the 21st. The [25:43] White House has in the past pushed Aoun [25:45] to meet with Prime Minister Netanyahu [25:47] who's also slated to be in the US next [25:49] week. [25:50] But Aoun has rebuffed those offers due [25:53] to the IDF's continued presence in his [25:55] country. [25:57] If he again he he has to show this kind [26:00] of hardline strength [26:02] politically he's got to walk that line. [26:05] That's what he's doing here. [26:09] Anyway. [26:10] That's where we are with the Lebanon [26:12] situation. Hope you appreciated the [26:14] update. Oh, before we go, very [26:16] important. [26:17] Uh are we headed for regime change in [26:19] Iran? Very important webinar that we [26:21] have coming up next Monday, this coming [26:23] Monday on the 20th at 1:00 p.m. Eastern [26:26] time. 8:00 p.m. in Israel. If you can't [26:29] make the time and you register anyway, [26:31] you will receive a recording [26:34] of the webinar to your email. So make [26:36] sure to to register for this webinar. [26:38] Fantastic panel. Brigadier General Amir [26:40] Avivi [26:42] Brian Kennedy uh formerly of the of the [26:45] Claremont Institute and the and uh the [26:48] and the American Strategy Group uh Dr. [26:51] David Wurmser [26:52] and Lieutenant uh Colonel Jonathan [26:54] Conricus, unbelievable panel to talk [26:56] about what's going on in the Middle [26:57] East. You don't want to miss this, [26:59] Monday, 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time. Make [27:01] sure to register at the link in the [27:02] description of this video. [27:05] Uh or you can uh you can scan this QR [27:09] code. Either way, make sure you're [27:10] registered next Monday, 1:00 p.m. See [27:13] you then. God bless.
