Transcript [00:00] Hey everyone. So this past Tuesday, just [00:03] a couple days ago, the Lebanese [00:05] President Joseph Aun was in Washington [00:08] and he met with President Trump. And I [00:10] didn't really make a video about the [00:12] outcome of that meeting. And a few [00:14] people asked me about it. They're like, [00:15] "Hey, you know, this big event happened, [00:17] why, you know, you should be covering [00:18] it." And I I agree. And the reason I [00:20] didn't make a video at first is that I [00:22] wasn't quite sure what actually changed [00:25] or happened. There was no big [00:26] announcement coming out of the meeting [00:28] and I wasn't really sure what to say [00:29] about it. But the more I've thought [00:30] about it, the more I've looked into [00:32] what's going on in Lebanon, there have [00:33] been developments this week around the [00:35] meeting that uh need to be talked about. [00:38] So, we're going to get into the whole [00:41] Lebanon situation [00:43] just of course level set. Uh few weeks [00:47] back, Israel about about a month ago, [00:50] Israel and Lebanon signed this framework [00:52] agreement that would involve uh pilot [00:55] zones that Israel would withdraw out of [00:57] a few areas that are cleared ofah where [01:02] uh where the Lebanese armed forces would [01:04] come in and show and prove their their [01:08] uh and verify their ability to control [01:11] an area and clear it out of anyah [01:14] uh assets. that's infrastructure [01:17] personnel, etc. to secure it. And then [01:20] as that, you know, as they show their [01:23] ability to hold territory and keep it [01:25] clear of so no longer a threat to [01:27] Israel, Israel will withdraw from more [01:31] areas. That's basically the agreement. [01:33] We're going to get into uh this in this [01:35] video. We're going to talk about where [01:36] things stand right now. Let's hit the [01:37] headlines. Let's get right to it. [01:40] Okay. [01:43] Lebanese army enters southern town after [01:45] Israeli withdrawal in first test of US [01:49] broker deal. This is from Tuesday. So it [01:52] what happened was Israel would withdrew [01:54] right before the Trump Aoon meeting. [01:56] Let's let's hit it. Lebanese army troops [01:58] began deploying [02:00] in the southern Lebanese Lebanese town [02:03] of Zar al- Garbia. We're going to talk a [02:06] lot about that about that in this video. [02:09] Zatar Algabia on Tuesday after Israeli [02:12] forces withdrew from the area, a senior [02:14] Lebanese security official said in line [02:16] with a US brokered plan. The plan [02:18] foresees Lebanese army troops [02:20] confiscating weapons from the Iran [02:23] aligned group in parts of southern [02:26] Lebanon [02:28] and phase withdrawals of Israeli troops. [02:30] Let me read that sentence again. The [02:32] plan foresees Lebanese army troops [02:35] confiscating weapons from Kisbollah in [02:39] parts of southern Lebanon and phased [02:41] withdrawal of Israeli troops. The [02:43] Israeli military said on Monday that the [02:45] plan dubbed the pilot zone program had [02:48] begun. [02:51] Okay. And that's basically the story. Uh [02:54] there's a little there's a little bit [02:56] more in this in this news item. It also [02:59] talks about how um the the Lebanese army [03:03] said later that Israeli forces had fired [03:07] had fired uh near its units [03:11] um in the area [03:14] um and uh near the deployment warning [03:17] that the incident could obstruct the [03:19] steps being carried out. The Israeli [03:20] military said his troops fired warning [03:22] shots into the air after Lebanese army [03:24] personnel accompanied by an engineering [03:26] vehicle crossed about 150 meters into [03:29] what it calls a security zone. Meaning [03:31] there's a zone where Israeli troops [03:33] still uh have kept it clear. It's a [03:35] security zone that they've set up, a [03:37] buffer zone that uh and and they don't [03:39] want the they don't want anyone going in [03:41] there. [03:43] So uh and they fired in the air. Okay. [03:47] um it said that the area was not part of [03:49] the of the pilot zone and that's why [03:51] they fired in that area. So this this uh [03:55] this withdrawal [03:57] what came in advance of the Trump AON [04:01] meeting. Okay. Now [04:05] here I want to show you how it was [04:07] reported in Saudi media. Arab news is [04:09] owned by a member of the Saudi royal [04:11] family. Zatar Alagarbia becomes the [04:14] first test of his of Israeli withdrawal [04:17] and Lebanese army deployment in South [04:19] Lebanon. And I'm just going to jump down [04:21] to the key passage in this. Most of it [04:23] is just reporting on this same story. [04:25] Look what it says down here. The [04:27] framework agreement does not specify a [04:29] timetable for Israel's withdrawal from [04:31] areas it occupied or controls in [04:33] southern Lebanon, including territory [04:35] extending more than 10 km inside [04:37] Lebanon. Under the agreement, Israel [04:39] withdrawals are linked to the Lebanese [04:41] army assuming full security [04:43] responsibility in evacuated areas and to [04:46] the disarmament of armed groups and [04:47] apparent reference to this is the key of [04:50] the whole thing. Now, I want to remind [04:52] you, if you've been watching my channel, [04:55] that when the agreement between Lebanon [04:57] and Israel was first signed, [05:01] which says that the withdrawals are [05:04] conditional on on onbalah [05:08] being disarmed, [05:10] I said at the time that we have to [05:12] beware or we have to look down range, [05:16] this is what I predicted. I said, "What [05:17] we're going to now see is pressure on [05:20] Israel to withdraw prematurely [05:24] and that Israel needs to resist any call [05:26] for timetables." Again, if you watch my [05:28] videos, you might remember I talked [05:29] about that timetables is the thing that [05:32] Israel has to resist. There can be no [05:35] timetables because once there's timets, [05:37] oh, we'll draw within a month, we'll [05:39] draw within a year, whatever it is. Once [05:42] there's a timetable, what ends up [05:44] happening, this happens all the time [05:45] with Israel, is that the other side [05:47] doesn't fulfill their commitments, but [05:49] immediately starts hammering Israel and [05:52] everyone starts, you know, looking at [05:53] the timetable saying, "Oh, this is the [05:54] date you're supposed to withdraw." And [05:56] Israel is supposed to uphold its end of [05:57] the bargain before the other side does. [05:59] So, it cannot be dependent on a [06:00] timetable. It's got to be dependent on [06:02] performance. And this this uh this [06:05] agreement is written that way. Uh we're [06:07] going to take a look at the agreement in [06:08] a se in a in a couple minutes. Let's [06:10] just finish with uh Zatar al Garbia. [06:12] Another story from Arab news. [06:16] Um and this is from two days ago. [06:18] Lebanon plants flag in Zatar Alar Gabia [06:21] asbalah questions next steps. [06:24] Okay on Wednesday questioned the [06:26] Lebanese state's next steps after the [06:28] deployment of the Lebanese army to Zatar [06:30] Gabia, part of a pilot initiative linked [06:33] to the US broker framework. The move [06:36] came a day after the unprecedented [06:38] summit in Washington between Aun and [06:39] Trump. [06:42] MP Hussein Haj Hassan said the summit [06:45] had delivered American promises without [06:47] guarantees. There will quote there will [06:49] be no dialogue with those who attack us, [06:51] destroy our land and our homes and kill [06:53] our people. This guy is he is aligned [06:56] withah [06:58] but he he stopped short of criticizing [06:59] the Lebanese army. He also rejected any [07:01] attempt to block Iranian funding for for [07:05] reconstruction, saying it would be [07:06] difficult to cut I'm sorry. Yeah. Yeah. [07:09] That it would be difficult to cut off [07:11] from its support base. Lebanese [07:12] parliament speaker Nabi Berry, who is [07:15] Shiite and sort of pro-isbah most of the [07:18] time, said a real test after the [07:20] Washington meeting was whether the [07:22] ceasefire would hold and whether Israel [07:23] would complete its withdrawal from [07:25] southern Lebanon. See, they're all they [07:27] care about is withdrawal. [07:30] The fact that withdrawal is actually [07:31] tied to the disarmament of everyone [07:34] ignores. Meaning Israel has to has to [07:36] complete its withdrawal. Israel is [07:37] committed to withdrawal. That's the way [07:38] they spin it. Okay, this is what I [07:40] warned about. Now, this isn't a huge [07:43] deal. It's just the Lebanese parliament [07:44] speaker. But you see what's going on [07:45] here. Uh now, uh now it talks about um [07:50] talks about Joseph Aun. And this is [07:51] Joseph Aun was at the Lebanese embassy [07:53] in Washington and he was speaking to [07:54] people there. And he said he outlined a [07:57] gradual approach that begins with [07:59] addressing the Israeli occupation, [08:02] continues with the Lebanese army [08:04] assuming full control over security and [08:06] ends with the reconstruction and [08:08] economic recovery led by the state. And [08:10] then it talks about Na Salam, the prime [08:12] minister, who said that the government [08:14] would continue mobilizing all our [08:15] political and diplomatic efforts to [08:17] secure a complete withdrawal from all [08:19] Lebanese territory. He had uh [08:24] and now and now we're quoting Brigadier [08:26] General uh Basam Yasin who said that [08:30] Israel was unlikely to withdraw without [08:32] major US pressure. If withdrawal does [08:34] take place, it will benefit everyone and [08:36] allow the Lebanese army to to deploy and [08:38] carry out its normal duties. They are [08:40] just all they're focused on is getting [08:43] Israel to withdraw as though the [08:45] withdrawal is just an obligation that [08:47] Israel has. And check this out from [08:50] Reuters. This is from the meeting. This [08:52] is the Reuters reporting on the meeting [08:54] between Trump and Aoon. Lebanon Zun [08:56] tells Trump an Israeli troop withdrawal [08:58] is needed. Lebanese President Joseph [09:01] told US President Donald Trump on [09:03] Tuesday that a full Israeli withdrawal [09:04] from Lebanese territory was essential to [09:07] consolidating stability and enabling the [09:09] state to extend its authority. The [09:11] Lebanese presidency said in their first [09:14] meeting, the two leaders discussed plans [09:15] to disarm the Iranbacked militant group [09:19] and secure Iran's withdrawal, Israel's [09:21] withdrawal from Lebanon. The Lebanese [09:24] presidency said they also discussed US [09:26] support for Lebanon's army, [09:28] reconstruction, economic recovery, and [09:30] American investment. [09:33] In a statement after the talks, the [09:35] Lebanese president presidency said, [09:37] "Aoon stressed to Trump the urgent need [09:39] for a complete Israeli withdrawal from [09:41] Israeli territory, calling it an [09:43] essential step to consolidate stability [09:46] and enable the Lebanese state to extend [09:48] its full sovereignty exclusively through [09:50] its own forces." [09:53] Hours ahead of Aun's meeting with Trump, [09:55] Lebanese army troops began taking [09:57] control of territory vacated by Israeli [09:59] forces in southern Lebanon. the first [10:00] test of the plan. A Lebanese official [10:02] said believes that only Trump possesses [10:05] the leverage needed to pressure Israel [10:07] to withdraw its troops and help Lebanon [10:09] restore its sovereignty. [10:11] Look, if Israel withdraws its troops and [10:14] is still there, Lebanon ain't got no [10:16] sovereignty. Lebanese sovereignty means [10:18] that there's nobah that Iran is not [10:20] controlling Lebanon. You follow? They [10:23] always talk about Lebanese sovereignty. [10:25] Lebanese sovereignty. [10:27] Israeli troops are Israel is trying to [10:30] get rid ofah [10:32] and the Lebanese government says they [10:34] want to get rid ofah and they they they [10:37] say that they don't want Iran and making [10:39] decisions for the for Lebanon. [10:42] So Israel withdrawing before Leb before [10:45] is completely gone is not a restoration [10:46] of Lebanese sovereignty. They're just [10:48] trying to get Israel to withdraw. [10:54] The official said that Aoun, in addition [10:56] to asking the US president to press [10:58] Israel to withdraw, would also present [10:59] Trump with a written proposal on how to [11:02] decommission's [11:04] massive arsenal. Right? Look, let's take [11:08] a look at the agreement itself just to [11:10] remind ourselves what it actually says. [11:12] As all this pressure ramps up on Israel [11:14] to withdraw, let us go back to the [11:17] actual document. You see, I talk about [11:19] this all the time with every agreement [11:20] that Israel signs. Let's pause for a [11:23] second and talk about the Gaza 20oint [11:25] plan. In the Gaza 20oint plan, it talks [11:30] about Kamas disarmament as a [11:32] prerequisite [11:34] kamas dismantling and disarmament and [11:36] having no control whatsoever directly or [11:39] indirectly is the exact wording in any [11:42] of the government governance in Gaza. [11:44] and that that all has to happen as a [11:47] prerequisite [11:49] for the international stabilization [11:52] force coming in. And only once the [11:54] international stabilization force comes [11:55] in does Israel begin to withdraw. And [11:59] yet what do we have? What do we have? We [12:01] have kamas still in charge and calls for [12:05] Israel to withdraw. Now Israel doesn't [12:07] heed any of them that and that situation [12:08] is not going anywhere. But this always [12:10] happens when Israel signs agreements. [12:12] there's a sequence in the agreement and [12:14] then the other side just completely [12:16] ignores it and and uh that's what [12:19] happens anyway. But but let's take a [12:20] look at this at this framework. Here's [12:21] the original framework agreement signed [12:23] on June 29th almost a month ago. Here's [12:27] the text clause two. The government of [12:29] Israel and the government of Lebanon [12:31] commit to a reciprocal sequenced process [12:35] with clear conditions whereby the [12:37] Lebanese armed forces will will restore [12:40] effective sovereign authority over all [12:42] Lebanese territory pending here's the [12:44] key pending the verified disarmament of [12:49] non-state armed groups i.ebah [12:52] and dismantle it dismantlement of [12:54] associated infrastructure enabling the [12:57] IDF to progressively progressively [13:00] redeploy out of the Lebanese territory. [13:02] Can we all say that together now? Again, [13:06] that [13:07] it's a sequenced process with clear [13:10] conditions and it's pending the verified [13:13] disarm the verified pending the verified [13:16] disarmament of non-state armed groups [13:19] and dismantling their infrastructure. [13:20] And that is what enables the IDF to to [13:23] progressively redeploy out of Lebanese [13:25] territory. So what's with the pressure [13:27] for Israel to withdraw? Why should there [13:29] be? Israel doesn't need pressure to [13:31] withdraw. If this gets fulfilled, Israel [13:33] will withdraw. That's all there is to [13:36] it. [13:37] Pressure on Israel to withdraw from [13:39] Lebanese territory. [13:41] And Aun said that he was he's he's asked [13:44] Trump and this is all the reports of the [13:45] meeting. They're saying that that they [13:47] they asked Trump to pressure Israel to [13:49] withdraw. [13:51] Now, I'm not saying that Trump will [13:53] pressure Israel to withdraw or that [13:55] Israel will withdraw if Trump pressures [13:57] them to. I'm not suggesting that at all. [14:01] All I'm saying is that I have I I have [14:03] less and less confidence. [14:06] Not that I had all that much, but I [14:07] don't have much confidence in this [14:09] Lebanese leadership that they're serious [14:11] about trying to get rid of [14:13] if this is the direction they're taking. [14:16] You don't need to pressure Israel to [14:18] withdraw. It says exactly what the [14:20] conditions are under which Israel would [14:22] will withdraw. And we're way and we're [14:24] far away from them. [14:27] The components of this process will be [14:29] detailed in in a security annex [14:31] developed with the full support of the [14:33] United States that will complement this [14:35] framework. The framework will set out [14:37] the requisite measures, security [14:38] arrangements, and verification [14:40] mechanisms to advance this process. I'd [14:42] love to see that security annex. [14:44] Successful implementation of this [14:46] framework will pave the way for a stable [14:48] and peaceful relationship between the [14:50] two countries and will enable the IDF to [14:52] redeploy out of Lebanese territory. [14:56] Clause three. Pursuant to the security [14:58] annex, as part of the broader effort [15:00] toward the Lebanese state's monopoly of [15:01] arms and sovereign territorial control, [15:04] the LAF, the Lebanese armed forces, will [15:07] gradually assume full and effective [15:08] security responsibility in pilot zones, [15:11] which will serve as the mechanism for [15:14] phased and verified redeployments of the [15:17] IDF and deployments of the LAF. Two [15:20] initial zones have been agreed to by the [15:22] IDF and the LAF and future pilot zones [15:25] will also be agreed upon mutual consent. [15:27] Now I gave this a double highlight here [15:30] upon the confirmation [15:32] of successful disarmament of nonstate [15:36] armed groups i.e [15:39] and dismantlement of their [15:40] infrastructure in these zones. The LAF [15:43] will assume full and effective security [15:44] responsibility in these zones. [15:46] Internationally supported reconstruction [15:48] efforts will begin. Lebanese civilians [15:50] will be able to safely return to these [15:52] areas under the exclusive control of the [15:54] Lebanese state authorities. The United [15:56] States intends to work closely with both [15:58] countries to verify and support this [15:59] process. Clause 4 includes this line. [16:01] The government of Lebanon will rebuild [16:03] the state's monopoly on the use of [16:04] force, achieve the complete and verified [16:08] disarmament of all non-state armed [16:10] groups, and ensure that such groups will [16:12] have no military or security role and no [16:15] armed capabilities anywhere in Lebanon. [16:16] Now, here's what I love about this line. [16:18] Again, I'm going to bring us back to the [16:20] 20point plan for Gaza, which in talking [16:24] about the disarming of Hamas, it talks [16:26] about it as something that will happen. [16:29] It even literally says there will be a [16:32] process of disarmament. Gives no [16:34] indication about who's supposed to do it [16:36] or what the process is. There will be an [16:38] agreed upon process. [16:42] And here it says, "The government of [16:43] Lebanon will rebuild the state's [16:45] monopoly on the use of force and it will [16:47] achieve the complete and verified [16:49] disarmament of non-state armed groups." [16:50] Really? It will. It will achieve this. [16:52] What's the process? [16:55] Says that it can't be done militarily. [16:58] Really? You mean it can be done [16:59] non-militarily? You can get to surrender [17:02] their weapons non-militarily. [17:04] How's that supposed to work? [17:07] Clause five includes this. The [17:09] government of Israel underscores that [17:11] the termination of this threat through [17:13] the disarmament and dismantlement of [17:14] such groups in all of Lebanon and [17:16] additional security arrangements to be [17:18] agreed upon between the two countries [17:20] will eliminate any future need for the [17:22] IDF military action or presence in [17:24] Lebanon. [17:26] Okay? And Israel has no territorial [17:28] ambitions there. And remember, Lebanon [17:31] signed this, [17:33] which means Lebanon agreed to this, [17:38] that what eliminates the need for the [17:39] IDF military presence in Lebanon is the [17:43] termination of the threat, the [17:45] dismantlement and disarmament ofah. [17:49] Let's jump down to clause nine. The [17:52] government of Lebanon commits to a [17:53] rigorous performance-based program to [17:56] enable the capacity of the LAF to assert [17:59] full military and security control [18:00] within Lebanon in accordance with [18:02] security arrangements agreed upon within [18:04] the framework of negotiations and to [18:06] implement the disarmament of all [18:09] non-state armed groups and exercise [18:11] effective authority across Lebanon. [18:13] Again, I'm not suggesting they have the [18:14] ability to or they will. Oh, here's the [18:15] security annex. I should read it, [18:17] shouldn't I? We'll take a look at the [18:19] security annex another time. [18:21] My bad, I didn't read the security [18:23] annex. [18:25] But [18:26] let me just underscore the key point [18:28] that I'm making here. Um, [18:32] the disarmament of [18:35] is repeated over and over and over again [18:38] as the prerequisite for Israel to [18:41] withdraw from wherever it is. So [18:45] pressure on Israel to withdraw right now [18:48] is completely misplaced. [18:51] It is misplaced. [18:54] You don't have to pressure Israel to [18:56] withdraw from Lebanon. Now there was a [18:58] nice piece that I saw written on this [19:00] whole topic um in the wake of the Aun [19:04] Trump meeting. This was published uh [19:06] yesterday by the Foundation for Defense [19:08] of Democracies. [19:10] Um Mr. [19:12] came to Washington. Lebanon now owes [19:14] results. I'll read some a few uh choice [19:16] excerpts of it. Lebanese President [19:18] Joseph Aun's July 21st meeting with [19:20] President Donald Trump clarified the [19:22] terms of the US Lebanese relationship, [19:24] but did not resolve Lebanon's central [19:26] problem. as weapons and the absence of a [19:30] state monopoly on force. Own thanked [19:32] Trump for brokering the June 26 [19:34] framework agreement with Israel which [19:36] conditions the new US which conditions [19:38] new US assistance [19:41] and a phased Israeli withdrawal from [19:44] south from South Lebanon on verifiable [19:46] Lebanese action against sought US [19:49] pressure for further withdrawals, [19:51] support for the Lebanese armed forces, [19:54] reconstruction aid um and reconstruction [19:57] aid. Trump reaffirmed the framework and [19:59] promised further Israeli redeployment. [20:01] He promised further Israeli [20:02] redeployment. [20:04] Hm. Interesting. [20:06] And very concrete plans for supporting [20:08] the LAF. Aw walks away from the summit [20:11] strengthened domestically as [20:12] Washington's principal Lebanese [20:14] interlocutor, but without making any [20:16] measurable commitments. The political [20:19] benefit must now yield tangible results. [20:22] Lebanese cabinet approval and [20:23] enforcement of verifiable pilot zone [20:25] plan, a nationwide disarmament timetable [20:29] and safeguards against interference in [20:31] the implementation and aid. Those are [20:34] going to be tough things to achieve. [20:35] Aoon and Lebanon deserve some credit. [20:38] The government proescribed military [20:40] activities on March 2nd. That's true. [20:42] the Lebanese government on March 2nd. [20:44] That was the day that started shelling [20:46] Israel unprovoked, [20:49] firing [20:50] tons of rockets at northern Israel [20:52] unprovoked because they were they were [20:55] defending Iran [20:58] from Lebanon. [21:02] Aoon backed direct negotiations with [21:04] Israel and the Anyway, so when that [21:06] happened, the the sorry the Lebanese [21:08] legislature said that activities are [21:11] illegal. So they passed a [21:14] a resolution or whatever. They voted [21:16] that they announced that military [21:19] activities are illegal. Very nice. So [21:21] they're saying let's give him a little [21:22] credit. The government prescribed [21:24] military activities on March 2nd. Aoon [21:27] back direct negotiations with Israel and [21:29] the framework. That's also he deserves [21:30] credit for that despite objections and [21:33] the LAF reinforced its presence around [21:36] the proposed southern Lebanon pilot [21:37] zones. [21:39] parcels of Israeli occupied Lebanese [21:41] territory to be transferred to LAF [21:42] control. There, the LAF would clear [21:45] non-state weapons and infrastructure. [21:47] Third party inspectors would verify its [21:49] work and qualified units would prevent [21:52] return before further Israeli [21:54] withdrawals. That's the idea. On the [21:56] summit day, the LAF entered Zar Al [21:59] Garbia. That's the place we were talking [22:01] about before. And is as Israeli forces [22:03] withdrew but remained nearby, the [22:05] limited handover showed that LAF control [22:07] can produce phased Israeli redeployment [22:10] but not disarmament and therefore cannot [22:13] substitute for nationwide policy. Yet [22:18] Aun has already taken positions that [22:20] hollow out the framework. He publicly [22:22] placed Israeli withdrawal before [22:24] Lebanese performance and insisted that [22:27] disarmament cannot be achieved by force. [22:30] effectively giving the group a veto. [22:33] Why does it give it a veto? If if you're [22:35] saying that we're not going to disarm by [22:37] force. So you basically mean that you [22:40] need to get them to agree to disarm. [22:42] That gives them a veto. And you know [22:44] what they're going to say? No. [22:48] [laughter] It it [22:50] it's just like the disarming of kamas in [22:51] Gaza. It's just words on a piece of [22:54] paper that no one's going to pay any [22:55] attention to and it's never going to [22:57] happen. and Israel is going to stay [22:58] where they are and then they're just [23:00] going to ramp up the pressure on Israel [23:02] to withdraw and there's going to be this [23:03] whole narrative of Israeli occupation of [23:05] South Lebanon. [23:08] That's where we're headed here because [23:10] Israel is not going to leave until taken [23:11] out. Isa is not going to be taken out by [23:13] these jokers. That's where we are. And [23:16] it's going to be Israel occupies South [23:18] Lebanon. Israel does not want to be in [23:20] South Lebanon. [23:24] [sighs] [23:26] In the Oval Office, he again emphasized [23:28] US pressure on Israel without offering a [23:31] comparable Lebanese timetable. He has [23:33] not held LAF commander Rudolfph Hikal [23:36] accountable for resisting the cabinet's [23:38] March 2nd decision and refusing to [23:41] proceed with disarmment. Rodolf Aikal [23:43] who's the commander of the Lebanese [23:45] armed forces of Lebanese army is [23:47] actually kind of he's pro- kisbala and [23:50] he and he said he has said that he's not [23:52] going to disarmala [23:55] and now they make recommendations uh [23:57] down here and that's what we'll end with [23:59] Aun should use his enhanced political [24:01] standing to secure a dated LA prepared [24:04] pilot zone plan formally adopted by the [24:07] cabinet. It should designate the units [24:08] responsible for each zone and and vet [24:11] them forbala links or or sympathies. It [24:15] has to ident they should identify the [24:17] weapons, the tunnels, the caches [24:20] uh the caches of weapons and command [24:22] facilities to be cleared, specify lawful [24:25] measures against armed personnel who [24:26] resist implementation, right? Because [24:29] you're going to have members of the [24:30] armed forces who will refuse to disarmah [24:33] because they arebah. There's a lot they [24:35] there's an estimated about 30% of the [24:37] Lebanese armed forces are are [24:39] sympathetic tobah. [24:41] So what you have to come up with a you [24:43] have to you have to publicly declare you [24:45] have to decide what are going to be the [24:47] consequences if someone dis if someone [24:49] resists. [24:51] You have to guarantee third party [24:52] inspectors real-time access and pair [24:55] verified LAF milestones with phased [24:57] Israeli withdrawals beyond the pilot [25:00] zones in southern Lebanon. The plan [25:01] should cover the seizure or destruction [25:03] of weapons and tunnels, closure of its [25:06] smuggling routes, dismantling of its [25:08] command structure, and demobilization of [25:10] its armed personnel throughout the [25:11] country. This is kind of a no-brainer. [25:13] This is what it means to disarm [25:16] should also press the cabinet and [25:17] responsible authorities to insulate [25:19] state institutions, including security, [25:21] reconstruction, and financial [25:23] apparatuses from influence. Officials [25:26] with operational or financial ties tobah [25:29] should be removed or recused from [25:31] reconstruction [25:33] procurement and donor fund oversight [25:35] with US audits ensuring that assistance [25:38] does not reachah or its affiliates. Now [25:41] none of these things is going to happen [25:42] by the way watch. None of it's going to [25:45] happen. What they're saying in this [25:46] piece is if if this is serious, if this [25:50] is going to be successful, if Joseph is [25:53] serious about everything that's in the [25:54] agreement that the that the Lebanese [25:56] state is going to exert its sovereignty [25:58] and they're going to disarm and they're [25:59] going to take control, this is what it [26:02] will look like. [26:04] But what they're not saying in [26:05] parentheses on this whole thing is [26:06] they're not going to do any of this. [26:14] If Haiko continues to delay or resist [26:17] cabinet directives, Aun should press the [26:19] cabinet to impose lawful consequences. [26:22] He should be removed from his post as [26:23] the head of the army. Lebanon should [26:25] cooperate with targeted US sanctions [26:27] against officials obstructing [26:29] disarmament. Let get up and say that [26:31] that anyone who obstructs the [26:32] disarmament ofah will be sanctioned. [26:35] He's not saying that. All he's saying is [26:37] Israel needs to withdraw [26:40] and and work with Washington to [26:42] dismantle's financial institutions. [26:45] Fear that seizing's entire arsenal at [26:47] once could provoke civil conflict, civil [26:50] war makes immediate comprehensive [26:53] disarmament unlikely. Oh yeah, Trump [26:56] should not demand sweeping province [26:58] sweep sweeping promises AON cannot [27:01] deliver. But Lebanon's very real [27:03] constraints cannot justify American [27:05] acquiescence to indefinite Lebanese [27:09] inaction, which is what we will have, [27:12] folks. We will have we are headed for [27:14] indefinite Lebanese inaction on this [27:18] front. So I am not optimistic that we're [27:23] going to see any progress on this [27:24] Lebanon thing. Like I said, watch. It's [27:27] going to happen. And I'll probably make [27:29] a video where I'll say, you see, [27:30] remember, [27:32] all we're going to have is a narrative [27:34] of Israel refusing to withdraw from [27:36] Lebanon. [27:38] Is going to stay where they are. Israel [27:40] is going to have its hands tied because [27:41] you're going to have these pilot zones [27:43] right nearby with Lebanese army now [27:45] there. It's going to make it harder to [27:46] fight. [27:50] Look, that's the situation. That's the [27:52] situation. Uh I don't have better news [27:55] on this front. God bless Joseph Aun for [27:59] saying the right things and for [28:01] ostensibly trying to move Lebanon in the [28:02] right direction. And probably he he you [28:06] know behind closed doors he's harsher on [28:08] that than he is in than he is in public. [28:10] He's got a you know the whole problem [28:12] here is Lebanon itself. It's an [28:14] unsolvable problem in my opinion. You've [28:16] heard me talk about that before. All [28:17] right, we're done. God bless. Have a [28:19] good weekend.
