Transcript [00:00] Well, it might be a little early to talk [00:02] about this topic, but there is going to [00:04] be an election in Israel coming in the [00:07] fall, and people in the media are [00:08] starting to talk about it. It's starting [00:09] to affect things that are being said uh [00:12] in in politics in Israel. And uh I'm [00:15] going to start talking about it more, [00:17] especially once the election date is [00:19] announced and the campaigns really ramp [00:20] up. It's going to be a recurring theme [00:22] on this channel. I will be covering [00:24] that. I'll be educating you and sharing [00:26] with you my thoughts about all the [00:27] parties and all the issues in the [00:29] election campaign. So maybe we can [00:31] consider this the beginning of that uh [00:34] of that series of that topic that is [00:36] going to be part of the repertoire of [00:38] this channel. And uh what I want to do [00:40] in this video is I want to talk about uh [00:42] a clip that I just watched. Uh you know [00:46] sometimes it's good to see how the other [00:48] side thinks. So it's good. So every now [00:50] and then I I take a look at how do [00:52] leftists talk about Israeli politics. [00:55] What do leftists actually say? Right? [00:58] I'm not a leftist. I hope you got that [00:59] that picture by now. So what I want to [01:02] share with you is a is a clip uh from [01:05] the economist pod podcast and the [01:08] economist geopolitical editor David [01:10] Renie is sitting down with a panel to [01:13] talk about the upcoming Israeli [01:15] election. And their big question is, [01:18] "What happens the day after Netanyahu?" [01:21] Okay, this clip is about four and a half [01:23] minutes long. I'm just going to play the [01:24] clip and uh and then I have I have some [01:27] comments to share. So, let's take a [01:28] look. Let me pull it up on screen here. [01:32] Let's see. Where are we? Here we go. [01:35] And play. Angel, that miserable thing to [01:39] do to a correspondent on the spot. Going [01:42] to ask you to talk about the upcoming [01:43] election. And it's even worse. It's an [01:45] Israeli election and no one can ever [01:47] predict an Israeli election even like [01:48] the day of but you know it's coming in [01:50] maybe in October [01:52] from our perspective as wondering about [01:55] the isolation of Israel. Is this one of [01:56] those elections where as long as [01:58] Netanyahu loses in that moment then you [02:01] know with one bound Israel is free [02:04] global standing transformed. Is that how [02:06] it works? [02:07] >> No. Israel's uh challenges, Israel's [02:10] security challenges, diplomatic [02:12] challenges will all remain on the day [02:14] after Netanyahu, assuming there is a day [02:16] after Netanyahu. But yes, the new [02:18] leader, when there is a new leader of [02:20] Israel, whether it's Gadi Eisenot, who's [02:22] now gone ahead in the polls, Napali [02:24] Bennett, who was just a few weeks ago [02:27] the front runner, if it's one of them, [02:29] they will have an opportunity to try and [02:31] reset some of these uh some of these [02:34] issues, but the challenges will remain [02:36] the same. And also a prime minister [02:38] Eisenhot or a prime minister Bennett [02:39] will have to take will have to make [02:41] decisions which which will be unpopular [02:43] around the world. There's no question [02:44] about it [02:45] >> that there's a kind of fantasy I think [02:46] in the west to think it's all Netanyahu. [02:48] Just get rid of Netanyahu everything [02:49] will change. That's just not true. It's [02:51] not true. I mean he is he is [02:53] representing some level of public [02:55] opinion in what I agree is a very [02:57] divided country Israel but but he stands [02:59] for something and he's he's it isn't [03:01] just Netanyahu. It's more than that. [03:03] >> It was very striking David when we were [03:04] there and we were talking about domestic [03:05] politics. Anel took us on this wonderful [03:07] tour of different political leaders. But [03:09] the message that really came across to [03:11] me was how much Israel in the past 10, [03:13] 20, 30 years that Netanyahu has been [03:15] dominant over Israeli politics, the [03:17] whole country has shifted to the right. [03:19] >> Well, when I was last and Anchel took me [03:21] to fantastic uh pollster and she was [03:24] explaining how yeah it may be incredibly [03:26] divided internally, but in terms of [03:27] foreign policy actually there's a fair [03:29] amount of unity. Isn't that right, [03:30] Anchel? [03:31] >> I think that's very true. It's about the [03:33] lack of having a diplomatic policy along [03:36] with the military policy and that's [03:38] where we're beginning to see the [03:39] difference between some of the [03:41] candidates and Netanyah I was at the [03:43] launch of Gaddy Eisenot's party this [03:45] week and there was a line in his speech [03:47] which said we shouldn't just be pursuing [03:50] war for war's sake and that's where you [03:53] begin to see the shift where the [03:55] alternative leaders in are starting to [03:58] talk about the fact that yes we have to [03:59] be very tough and we have to be prepared [04:01] to go to go to war, but we also have to [04:03] have these diplomatic options alongside [04:06] our military policies. And that's where [04:08] you're beginning to see the divergence. [04:09] >> It's almost like kind of Voldemort. [04:10] People are too sort of that people are [04:12] even his worst opponents are frightened [04:14] of Netanyahu's political skills. I mean, [04:18] nobody nobody wants to exclude the fact [04:20] that he could win again. So, if he wins [04:22] again, [04:23] >> what happens to policy? Does it get even [04:25] more hardline? Do we see even more [04:26] hardline people in the coalition? Well, [04:28] I don't I don't think there are more [04:29] hardliners in what can bring in and he's [04:32] broken all the walls and brought in all [04:34] the all the previously unmentionables [04:36] into his current coalition, but we will [04:38] see a doubling down on these policies. [04:41] And if that is the case, and if does win [04:44] and is reelected with his current [04:46] coalition, then that can only mean [04:49] further isolation for Israel. [04:50] >> Is Israel's future standing inseparable [04:53] from the future of the Palestinian [04:54] people, or have we just decided that we, [04:56] you know, it's a busy world. we don't [04:57] have the kind of the the width to think [04:59] about the Palestinians. [05:01] >> I think it is inseparable. Yeah. I I [05:03] think I I I thought actually from [05:07] October the 7th onwards that that it [05:10] showed terrible terrible massacre event [05:13] that it was. It showed you actually that [05:14] there has to be some kind of some kind [05:17] of agreement here. I go back to the old [05:20] insight that you know either Israel [05:23] absorbs all the Palestinians a and [05:27] accepts them as full citizens in which [05:29] case its identity as a Jewish state is [05:31] really under or it absorbs them or does [05:34] you know rules over them in which case [05:35] it becomes an apartheid state or it [05:37] finds a settlement and there there is [05:38] kind of no other way. Um and and I I [05:42] think you know I I agree with you that [05:44] the the fickleness of of the world of [05:46] being obsessed by Gaza and then kind of [05:48] forgetting about it is pretty shocking. [05:51] But the the the energy for the [05:53] Palestinian issues I don't think going [05:54] to come from Gaza. I think it's going to [05:56] come from the West Bank if if Netanyahu [05:58] is reelected because the settle settler [06:00] movement there is really is really [06:02] strong and that's there's sort of [06:03] movement in in that. [06:07] >> Okay. There's there's so many strange [06:10] things that they said there. Um, and [06:13] that's uh so let's pull this down. [06:18] Let's pull that down. Now, before we go [06:20] on, before we go on, I just want I want [06:22] to make sure you're all aware of a very [06:24] important event that we are hosting next [06:26] Monday, Monday, July 20th, 1 p.m. [06:29] Eastern time, 8:00 p.m. in Israel. Are [06:31] we headed for regime change? What to [06:33] expect from the Middle East? It is a [06:35] live webinar that you want to sign up [06:37] for, you want to attend. I will be [06:39] hosting and I will be joined by an [06:41] amazing all-star panel, Brigadier [06:42] General Amira Vivi, founder of the [06:44] Israel Defense and Security Forum, one [06:46] of the top military uh minds and and uh [06:50] one of the best one of the one of the [06:52] wisest military minds in the country. We [06:54] also have Brian Kennedy. Uh Brian [06:56] Kennedy is former president of the [06:57] Claremont Institute, one of the top uh [06:59] public intellectuals of the conservative [07:02] movement in America. [07:03] uh Dr. David Wormser, who I talk with [07:06] once a week on the Israel 365 news [07:08] channel. If you missed those [07:09] conversations, you got to go over and [07:10] check those out. We released another one [07:12] today, usually on Sundays. I speak with [07:13] him about geopolitics, about the Middle [07:16] East, and uh he's amazing from the [07:18] Center for Security Policy in Washington [07:20] DC. And Lieutenant Colonel John [07:23] Kenrikus, Jonathan Krikus, you've seen [07:25] him uh on TV and and uh we've hosted him [07:28] before from the Foundation for the [07:29] Defense of Democracies, former IDF [07:31] spokesman. And this is going to be an [07:33] amazing conversation next Monday, July [07:35] 20th at 1 PM Eastern, 8:00 PM in Israel. [07:39] You could uh you could sign up at the [07:41] link in the description of this video. [07:43] That's israel 365.com/regime. [07:46] Or you can uh you can click this uh this [07:49] QR code here and you could and that'll [07:51] also take you to the registration page [07:53] for the [07:55] for the um [07:58] um uh for the webinar. Now there was a [08:01] number of things that were said there [08:02] that were like a little bit off. Uh you [08:04] know like for example when when Ancho [08:06] Feffer said there you know like you know [08:08] under Netanyahu there's no diplomatic [08:10] policy at all. Like [08:13] when you look at Prime Minister [08:14] Netanyahu and all of and the treaty with [08:17] Greece and Cyprus and the relations with [08:19] the UAE and the relations with other [08:21] countries and and what he's doing in [08:23] Lebanon and how he handles President [08:25] Trump and and the there's there's a lack [08:29] of diplomacy here. Well, whatever. [08:30] That's a topic for another time. This [08:32] this video is not about me defending [08:34] Netanyahu. I want to be very clear. I [08:36] have my issues with Prime Minister [08:37] Netanyahu. In many ways, I'm a very big [08:39] fan. Uh my issues with him have nothing [08:41] to do with what these guys are talking [08:42] about though. And I want to get into [08:44] what things that they said as a window [08:47] into educating you beginning beginning [08:50] this lengthy series uh over the next [08:52] number of months until the election and [08:54] beyond to teach you about the Israeli [08:57] political landscape because seeing how [08:59] they see it and pointing out all the [09:01] things that are wrong is I think a [09:03] really good way to do that. So, [09:06] um, before we even get into what they [09:08] said, I want to point something out [09:09] about who's saying it. Their in-house [09:11] Israel expert on this panel is Anel [09:13] Feffer. He was the guy that they brought [09:14] in who wasn't sitting in the room. He's [09:16] a columnist for Harets. Now, outside of [09:19] Israel, Harets has the reputation as [09:20] Israel's paper of record, you know, the [09:23] serious uh, sober mainstream voice. But [09:26] inside Israel, it's a running joke. It [09:29] has something like 5% of the domestic [09:31] subscription market. I actually checked [09:34] its own admirers and I'm talking about [09:36] people like David Remnick at the New [09:37] Yorker describe it approvingly as easily [09:40] the most liberal newspaper in Israel. So [09:43] when the economist wants the Israel [09:45] expert they reach for the guy whose [09:46] actual readership in Israel is minuscule [09:51] and who whose outsized influence is [09:53] entirely with foreign embassies, [09:56] diaspora Jews and the international [09:58] mainstream left-leaning press. So it has [10:00] this outside of Israel, it has this [10:03] sense of authority about it. Inside [10:04] Israel, no one takes this newspaper [10:06] seriously. [10:08] So they're picking an analyst who's most [10:10] likely to tell you to tell them what [10:12] they want to hear. [10:14] And of course, and you saw from the [10:15] opening question in the clip where you [10:17] David Reny's like, well, you know, if [10:18] you get rid of Netanyahu, does suddenly [10:19] everything get better for Israel? [10:22] Okay, the headline claim from this [10:25] segment that I want to take apart is [10:28] that idea. The idea that if Netanyahu [10:30] loses, there's this reset in Israel, [10:32] like global standing could be [10:34] transformed. Anchel Feffer actually [10:36] pushed back on that a little bit in the [10:38] clip and he said that the challenges [10:40] still remain. It's not just Netanyahu. [10:41] Good. That's accurate. But then the [10:43] panel goes somewhere that I think is [10:45] much more revealing and much more wrong. [10:49] So, one of them said something uh one of [10:51] the editors, the other two guys sitting [10:53] on the left were both as you saw their [10:55] names, they're both editors at the [10:56] Economist [10:58] and one of them said that it's striking [11:00] how much the whole country has shifted [11:02] to the right under Netanyahu. [11:05] Right now, he's implying some sort of [11:07] causation there, like Netanyahu is the [11:10] one who has pulled Israel to the right. [11:12] But that's exactly backwards. Go look at [11:15] the people who study Israeli public [11:16] opinion for a living. Even Harets's own [11:18] polling analysts have made this point [11:20] that the shift to the right in Israel [11:23] has nothing to do with any personality. [11:26] Okay? In fact, Netanyahu himself has [11:28] shifted to the right as it were. His own [11:30] policies have. But it has to do with [11:32] events. It has to do with realities. The [11:36] second inifat in the early 2000s when [11:38] the peace camp assumptions of the Oslo [11:40] years got blown up literally on buses in [11:43] Jerusalem and Tel Aviv. Then in 2005, [11:46] Israel pulls out everyone, every [11:48] resident and every soldier out of Gaza [11:51] unilaterally as a goodfaith gesture to [11:55] give autonomy to, you know, to the uh to [11:58] the Palestinians there. And what do we [12:00] get in return? We got rockets and a [12:02] kamas takeover and then October 7th. [12:04] Netanyahu did not was not behind any of [12:08] that. Netanyahu is the guy who has been [12:11] positioned for two decades to benefit [12:13] from a country that keeps shifting to [12:16] the right because it keeps getting proof [12:18] that the left's assumptions about land [12:20] for peace and diplomacy, you know, [12:22] they're talking about, oh, you know, we [12:22] need better diplomacy, not just war. [12:24] Yeah. The kind of diplomacy that led to [12:28] all of these [12:30] peace efforts literally blowing up in [12:32] our faces. and the population coming to [12:35] the conclusion that the left-wing [12:37] approach to these issues does not work. [12:39] And that's why the Labor Party has [12:42] shrunk down to a fraction, a tiny [12:45] fraction of what it was in the past. [12:46] That's why there's no real left to speak [12:48] of. And I mean, a left left to speak of. [12:51] That's why every Israeli politician [12:52] always pretends to be more right-wing [12:54] than they actually are in order to [12:55] campaign because the population is moved [12:57] to the right. And this is very important [13:00] because the thing this this panel is [13:02] treating it as something Netanyahu did. [13:06] But [13:08] that has it has nothing to do with him. [13:11] The country has shifted to the right for [13:13] much deeper, more serious reasons than a [13:17] single politician. [13:19] Another point, point two, and this is [13:21] the one I really want you to sit with. [13:24] They're talking about who's supposed to [13:25] replace him. So the panel keeps floating [13:27] both Gadi Eisenot and Nftali Bennett. [13:29] That's what they're talking about. Like [13:30] those are the two guys, [13:32] right? They're the diplomatic [13:34] alternative to Netanyahu. So let's deal [13:36] with Bennett in one breath because he's [13:38] much less of a factor right now than [13:39] people assume. You hear his name and the [13:42] media is throwing his name around a lot. [13:45] Bennett is the most reliable chameleon [13:48] in Israeli politics. He built his first [13:51] political career running the Yesesha [13:53] Council. Okay, that's the Judea Samaria [13:56] settler movement's own political arm. [13:58] Okay, and he campaigned in 2013 on [14:03] annexing 60% of Judea and Samaria, known [14:06] as the West Bank. Then in 2021, he ran a [14:09] party called Yamina, and he told his [14:12] voters flatly on camera that he would [14:14] never sit with Mansour Abbas's uh Arab [14:17] party. Mansour Abbas is like a Muslim [14:20] Brotherhood type guy and that he would [14:22] never make Ya Laid prime minister. He [14:24] then did both of those things, becoming [14:26] the first Israeli prime minister to [14:28] govern with the formal backing of an [14:29] independent Arab party. A total betrayal [14:32] of his own voters, which is exactly how [14:35] they saw it. And his polling has a track [14:38] record of collapsing right along with [14:40] his credibility. If there's anyone in [14:41] Israel who polls way higher in the [14:44] mainstream media polls than he shows up [14:46] on election day, it's Natali Bennett. [14:48] his Yamina party was polling in the low [14:50] to mid20s in seats heading into the 2021 [14:52] election. Everyone thought, "Oh, wow. [14:54] He's really going to become a big party [14:57] and then he came out with seven seats on [14:58] election night." Okay, that's his [15:00] resume. He's not a significant factor. [15:03] Even Feffer in this very clip has to [15:05] admit that Bennett was the front runner [15:07] just a few weeks ago and he's been [15:08] passed in the polls and the campaign has [15:10] barely even begun. So Bennett's a [15:12] grifter with a bad track record who's [15:14] currently fading and he's not the man [15:16] this election turns on. Okay, that's set [15:19] him aside because the real challenger, [15:22] the one that's actually worth taking [15:24] seriously right now is Eisenkot. And [15:26] here's where the panel's framing falls [15:28] apart on its own terms. So Feffer says [15:31] that he was present at the launch of of [15:33] Gaddy Eisenkott's party and there was a [15:35] line in his speech about not pursuing [15:37] war for war's sake, right? that like [15:40] like you know you know you know military [15:44] toughness, [15:46] right? And we need more diplomacy. And [15:48] it sounds reasonable until you remember [15:52] that Eisenkot Eisenkot was attacking [15:54] Netanyahu not long ago for not [15:57] retaliating hard enough against [16:01] okay he he's also associated with what's [16:03] called the Dhaka doctrine, right? that [16:05] that Israel has to respond with [16:07] deliberately overwhelming force against [16:10] the infrastructure of the of the [16:12] terrorists who attack us. [16:15] Okay, so Eisenhot is a leftist on a lot [16:17] of things, [16:19] but what I don't know what these guys [16:22] are picturing will be the new policy. [16:24] And they even said there's there's a [16:25] pretty broad consensus in Israel about [16:27] how we have to deal with our enemies. [16:29] Again, in Lebanon over the last month [16:32] when Israel was kind of holding back a [16:34] little bit under American pressure, the [16:36] attacks from the left and the right were [16:38] identical that Israel needs to be [16:41] attacking harder. There's a lot of [16:42] consensus in this country. Israelis want [16:45] to finish the job against our enemies. [16:47] And you're going to see in this [16:48] campaign, everyone on both sides is [16:51] going to be campaigning on with that [16:53] messaging. No one is going to be [16:55] campaigning on a messaging of [16:56] negotiation [16:58] with with, you know, Palestinian [17:01] leadership of two-state solution. No one [17:03] will be that. Everyone's going to stay [17:04] away from that because that's not where [17:05] the population is. [17:10] Anyway, so so they're holding up [17:11] Eisenkot as the as the diplomatically [17:14] minded alternative to Netanyahu, which [17:15] is ridiculous. I mean, you just you [17:17] listen to Eisenhot speak, you can't even [17:18] imagine him engaging in diplomacy. [17:22] Okay, here's the point. Even in the [17:25] rosiest scenario for the opposition, and [17:28] yes, the current polling does a lot of [17:31] the current polling. There's there's a [17:32] big different. We'll get to polling a [17:34] little bit later in this video. We're [17:36] going to get to the issue with Israeli [17:38] polling, but let's just go with it. the [17:40] the current mainstream media polling [17:42] does show Netanyahu's coalition [17:44] trailing. But here's the thing that [17:47] people outside of Israel don't quite [17:49] get, especially Americans, because [17:50] Americans tend to think like, you know, [17:52] there's Republicans, Democrats, you [17:53] know, Netanyahu's government is [17:54] right-wing, so the opposition must be [17:56] leftwing, right? Here's the issue. The [17:59] alternative to a Netanyahu led [18:01] right-wing government is not a left-wing [18:03] government. It's not labor or merits, [18:08] which doesn't even exist anymore. [18:10] It's Netanyahu potentially getting [18:12] replaced by a rival Zionist right or [18:16] security hawk block maybe with some [18:19] left-leaning parties in it. It's the [18:22] only thing that could happen [18:24] maybe. So these commentators are selling [18:27] you a fantasy where getting rid of [18:29] Netanyahu means Israel turns to the [18:31] liberal left. But it doesn't because [18:34] there is no liberal left in Israel big [18:36] enough to form a coalition around. [18:39] And there's a wrinkle here that the [18:41] panel completely skates past, which is [18:43] what I just said. Opposition, when we're [18:46] talking about Israel, and we're talking [18:47] about the coalition versus opposition in [18:49] Israel, opposition does not equal [18:51] leftwing. It does not equal left of of [18:53] the coalition, even though the coalition [18:55] is a right-wing coalition. [18:58] Let me explain. [19:00] Right now, [19:02] a Victor Liber Lieberman's Israel Betenu [19:05] party has been in the opposition for [19:07] years and they're a pretty strong party. [19:10] He broke with Prime Minister Netanyahu [19:12] back in 2019 over the draft law because [19:16] he's opposed to to allowing exemptions [19:20] for Karedi ultraorththodox uh [19:25] you know people who are sitting and [19:26] studying all the time and don't want to [19:27] serve in the army. Okay. Okay, that's an [19:29] issue. We will get into that. I'll be [19:30] making some videos. We're going to talk [19:31] about that issue and I have very strong [19:33] opinions about it. [19:36] But, you know, so Lieberman has his [19:37] reasons why he broke with Netanyahu. He [19:39] also was his first chief of staff when [19:40] Netanyahu was first prime minister. Had [19:43] some falling out. There's personal [19:44] issues there. But Lieberman is not [19:46] left-wing by any stretch of the [19:48] imagination. He's a he's secular. So [19:51] he's opposed to the ultra orthodox on on [19:53] certain rel on religious issues and [19:55] other things, but he is a hawk on [19:58] defense and security. He is quite [20:00] rightwing. [20:03] So he's actually on on on how to deal [20:05] with the Arabs and our enemies. He's [20:07] actually to the right of liketu [20:10] has always been about about again [20:13] ultraorththodox draft exemptions, [20:14] religious coercion. It's not about how [20:17] to deal with Arabs. It's not about how [20:18] to deal with the settlements. So when [20:20] this panel says the opposition [20:24] and you're think and and they're and [20:26] they're and they're working with this [20:28] paradigm that the opposition means the [20:30] left and it gives you this feeling that [20:33] Israel is like divided right left like [20:35] almost 50/50. They're it's because [20:38] they're lumping in Lieberman with people [20:39] like Yer Laid and calling the whole [20:42] bundle, [20:45] you know, the opposition this diplomatic [20:47] reset. [20:49] But it isn't one block with one [20:50] ideology. It's an anti-Netanyahu [20:53] coalition of convenience that includes [20:55] people to the right of Netanyahu. [20:58] And that makes the Israel might go left [21:00] framing even weaker than what I already [21:02] laid out because it actually lines up [21:05] with something that academic polling [21:07] researchers already found. [21:10] The real fault line in Israeli politics [21:12] for years hasn't been left versus right. [21:14] It's been pro- Netanyahu versus [21:16] anti-Netanyahu. [21:18] And those two groups do not necessarily [21:20] overlap the way outsiders think they do. [21:25] That's a key to understanding the [21:27] current Israeli political landscape. [21:29] There are a lot of opposition to [21:31] Netanyahu people in this country who are [21:35] not left-wing. [21:39] Okay, that's a fact you can check. The [21:41] LA look the last time Israel had an [21:43] actual left-wing government led by an [21:45] actual left-wing party was Ahud Barak [21:48] leading labor in 1999 to 2001. [21:52] Uh hello that is a quarter of a century [21:55] ago. [21:57] Everything since then that has got that [21:59] has been called a change government [22:01] whether it's Ariel Chiron's Kadima or [22:03] the Bennett Laid coalition in 2021 was [22:06] centrist or rightwingleled in terms of [22:09] the voting block in terms of who the [22:10] parties really were with the actual left [22:13] labor and merits sitting in the back [22:16] seat if they were part of the coalition [22:17] at all. Israel has not moved back in [22:21] that direction. Israel has not moved [22:23] closer to the left. It hasn't shifted [22:26] back in its in its political views. It [22:28] it's moved further away from it, [22:30] especially since October 7th where [22:31] polling shows this surge in religious [22:33] observance among young Israelis and and [22:35] this spiritual renewal that's taking [22:37] place among many people in the country [22:39] which also is, you know, uh uh is [22:42] consistent with moving to the right [22:43] politically here. [22:46] Now, for those of you who watched that [22:48] little panel and thought, well, the [22:50] polls say Natao is losing, so maybe this [22:52] time is different. Okay, let's talk [22:54] about now we're going to talk about [22:55] Israeli polling [22:57] because there's some big issues here and [22:59] there's a pattern here that the [23:00] commentators either don't know about um [23:03] or I mean it could be that those those [23:06] economist editors don't know about it [23:07] but an Feffer for sure knows about it [23:10] and here's the pattern go back to 2015 [23:13] so more than 10 years ago Isaac Herzog [23:15] the current president was uh he was the [23:19] leader of these what was called at the [23:21] time the Zionist union which which was [23:23] basically the Labor Party uh ali uh [23:26] block. [23:28] And so he was a so he was like the he [23:30] was the he was the big hope then to [23:32] unseat Netanyahu and be prime minister [23:34] and the final polls before the the [23:37] pre-election blackout had him ahead. [23:40] There's always a pre-election blackout [23:41] on polls and the day before. The final [23:45] polls had him ahead of Likood projected [23:49] at 24 to 26 seats and Likood down at 21 [23:53] to 23. Along comes election night. [23:55] Herzog gets the bottom end of what the [23:57] polls said, 24 seats and Likood comes in [24:00] at 30. [24:02] A six-7 [laughter] [24:04] seat miss. [24:06] Okay, like that's not [24:09] that's not a small miss. And it wasn't [24:12] because Herzog underperformed. It's [24:13] because the polls completely missed a [24:15] lastm minute consolidation on the right. [24:18] Maybe last minute last minute according [24:19] to the pollsters. Same story in 2020. [24:22] Final polls had Likood at 30 to 35 [24:26] roughly tied. Netanyahu tied with Gance. [24:29] Likood comes in at 36 [24:32] ahead. Gance less. Same story going into [24:35] 2022. [24:38] Nearly in 2022, nearly every poll had [24:40] the right had Netanyahu's block because [24:42] everyone knew who would be in the [24:44] coalition. Netanyao because everyone [24:45] else was running on anti-Netanyao. The [24:48] the Netanyahu block according to the [24:50] polls going into the election in 2022 [24:52] had had that block around 60 seats. Just [24:55] one seat shy of of being able to form a [24:58] coalition. Final result, 64 seats, a [25:01] comfortable majority. [25:04] you need 61 to make a coalition, right? [25:07] But it's always in the same direction. [25:09] Now, there's an actual academic study on [25:11] this. This guy, Nadav Gabay, Nadav Gabay [25:13] did his uh he got his PhD from UC San [25:16] Diego. He also did posttock work at [25:18] Hebrew University. He's a real academic [25:21] and he wrote in Israel affairs in 2022. [25:24] He did a study of Israeli polling. [25:27] And I want to be precise about what it [25:29] actually shows because I don't want to [25:30] overclaim this. [25:32] Gabi's study does not show that Israeli [25:34] polls are like mystically cursed or or [25:39] intentionally biased to always underount [25:42] the right in general. That's not what [25:43] he's not making a claim about motive. [25:46] But what he what the study found and he [25:49] studied 97 polls [25:53] all from the 2019 2020 election cycle. [25:59] Here's what he found. [26:02] Polls commissioned by anti-Netanyahu [26:05] media outlets [26:07] underestimated the pro-Netanyahu block [26:10] by about a seat and a half to two seats [26:12] on average. A real measurable [26:15] statistically significant consistent [26:17] bias. [26:19] One and right one and a half to two [26:21] seats on average across 97 [26:26] polls. [26:28] Polls from pro- Netanyahu outlets, by [26:30] contrast, showed no bias in the other [26:33] direction. [26:36] In other words, it's not that polling in [26:38] Israel is hard. It's that who's paying [26:40] for the poll shapes what the poll says [26:43] through the waiting decisions, the [26:44] undecided voter allocation, all the [26:47] modeling choices that happen after the [26:49] raw numbers come in before you see a [26:51] headline. And Gabay's own conclusion, [26:54] his policy recommendation at the end of [26:56] this paper is that Israeli pollsters [26:57] should be required to do something [27:02] like show transparency to publish the [27:05] cross tabs, the waiting methodology, [27:08] who's commissioning the poll. Right now, [27:10] none of that is required. None of it [27:12] gets published. That's not my talking [27:13] point. That's a finding of a [27:15] peer-reviewed study. And let me tell you [27:16] a personal anecdote. uh about a I don't [27:18] know about a year and a half two years [27:19] ago there was some poll that was [27:20] published that I found very interesting. [27:22] I don't even remember what it was about [27:23] at right now. I think it had to do with [27:26] hostage with uh with pausing the war to [27:30] to a hostage deal that was you know in [27:32] the early in the early year and a half [27:35] two years of the of the war after [27:36] October 7th. The whole issue of like how [27:39] much we should concede to get hostages [27:40] back was a big issue. I think it was [27:42] something around that. But I remember I [27:43] saw a poll that I found very interesting [27:46] and I wanted to check the cross tabs. [27:48] Let me explain. If for those of you who [27:49] don't know the term, when a poll is [27:51] published in the United States, in the [27:53] west generally when a poll is published, [27:56] you can usually go to the website [27:59] of the polling agency and download a PDF [28:02] of cross tabs. And the cross tabs are [28:04] the poll itself. It has every question [28:07] that was asked. It has the breakdown of [28:09] all the demographics. Uh, so you can [28:11] see, but in when I say every question [28:12] that's asked, there's all these in a [28:14] poll, there's often setup questions [28:15] asking people their general voting [28:18] patterns and and their and their and [28:20] their opinions on other issues that [28:22] aren't really the point of the poll to [28:24] set the stage. Uh, and uh and and it [28:27] also includes again age, gender, all [28:31] kinds of things are in the poll. You [28:33] know, religious, non-religious, all [28:34] sorts of things are in that are in the [28:36] cross tabs. So then when you're looking [28:37] at a poll, you can check if the cross [28:39] tabs are a match for the actual [28:41] breakdown of the public. [28:44] That's how you can know what a poll [28:46] really you can identify uh [28:48] inefficiencies and you can also you can [28:51] also see how accurate it is, right? So [28:53] you have a if if you have a poll that is [28:55] just leaving out a whole segment of the [28:57] population or or the percentage of old [29:00] people is higher or lower than they [29:02] actually are in the population, for [29:03] example. You can make those adjustments [29:05] by looking at the cross tabs or you can [29:07] see that there's something wrong with [29:08] the poll. In Israel, pollsters do not [29:11] publish cross tabs. And I so I remember [29:13] I saw this poll that was very [29:14] interesting. I wanted to see the cross [29:15] tabs. I called I went to the website, no [29:17] cross tabs. I called up the polling [29:19] company. I got someone on the phone and [29:21] I said, you know, um you know, I write [29:23] columns for the Jerusalem Post and I I [29:25] wanted to write about this issue. I [29:26] wanted to quote the poll, but I didn't [29:28] want to quote it without knowing the [29:29] without seeing the cross tabs first. Can [29:30] I see the cross tabs? They said, "No, [29:33] there's no such thing. We don't publish [29:34] that. We we don't share our, you know, [29:36] the polling data. [29:39] And anyone who know if you know anything [29:41] about polls, you know that if you don't [29:43] see the cross tabs, you don't actually [29:44] know what the poll was was measuring. I [29:46] saw a poll uh a couple weeks ago in [29:49] Yiddi Otron, which is a left-leaning [29:51] mainstream media paper in Israel. I read [29:53] it every weekend. You know, that's my [29:55] one day of the week that I want to see [29:56] that I read left-wing newspaper, see [29:59] what they're saying. [30:01] And there was there was some poll in [30:02] there and I'm like, "Wow." And then and [30:05] the poll just didn't sit right with me. [30:08] And then I look at the fine print at the [30:10] bottom and it says that the poll was [30:11] conducted entirely online. [30:14] And what does that mean for an Israeli [30:16] poll? [30:18] You see, one of the issues that Gabby [30:21] talks about is the ultraorththodox, the [30:25] nonresponse to polls. A lot of that [30:27] community is not going to answer a [30:29] mainstream media poll. They're not going [30:30] to answer their phone and answer a poll. [30:31] There's a deep distrust of media outlets [30:35] and a large percentage of that [30:38] population does not use the internet, [30:42] right? It's doing online polls, which is [30:45] a lot of how they do them now, skews [30:47] towards a demographic that isn't kared, [30:51] which is a big percentage of the [30:52] population in Israel. you can add in a [30:55] fair percentage of the religious Zionist [30:56] community who are also don't really have [30:58] much, you know, or less online than the [31:01] general population. How do you wait for [31:03] that? [31:06] And then you have the small party [31:08] threshold problem. A lot of the polling [31:10] agencies in Israel won't poll. [31:14] They won't include as an option parties [31:17] that they don't think are going to get [31:18] in. It's really weird. [31:21] So, if they think a party isn't really [31:22] going to make it, they don't even [31:23] include them as an option for voting. [31:24] And then you have small parties that [31:26] sometimes do cross the threshold. That's [31:28] not going to happen in this election. Or [31:29] maybe we don't know who's going to be [31:30] running. [31:32] Suffice it to say that polling in Israel [31:34] is notoriously unreliable. And as Nadav [31:38] Gabay showed in his study, it always [31:40] seems to skew in the same direction. So [31:43] even so when these commentators go on [31:45] the economist and and and say the polls [31:47] show Netanyahu behind [31:50] they're ignoring a documented pattern of [31:53] exactly this same situation in election [31:56] after election and they're doing it [31:59] while relying on a columnist from the [32:02] one Israeli paper with the least [32:04] connection to how actual Israeli voters [32:07] think. To be fair, and I want to be fair [32:09] here, the gap in the current polling [32:11] according to the mainstream media [32:13] polling, which is like 8 to 10 seats for [32:14] the for the coalition blocks, is bigger [32:18] than the roughly two seat bias that [32:20] Gabby documented. Right? A polling [32:22] correction of the size we've seen [32:23] historically probably isn't enough on [32:26] its own to erase a gap that size. If [32:28] that gap is real, I I don't know. [32:31] I I'm not telling you Netanyahu was a [32:33] lock to win the election. That is not [32:34] the point of this video. [32:37] What I'm telling you is that this [32:38] election on the current numbers is not [32:41] shaping up as remotely close to a [32:44] left-wing government because there isn't [32:46] a left-wing option on the ballot large [32:48] enough to form one. [32:52] Right? They wouldn't be able to form a [32:53] government without Liberman who's very [32:54] to the right, which means I don't even [32:57] know what that looks like. [33:02] anyone telling your audience or you that [33:06] Netanyahu can lose and that means Israel [33:09] could go to the left. And I say this [33:12] also to the right-wing politicians who [33:13] are who are fear-mongering that there's [33:14] going to be a leftwing government. [33:15] There's going to be a leftwing [33:16] government. There could be a a a a [33:18] government that is foolish, [33:21] but no one's no one's instituting [33:23] left-wing policies that are soft on our [33:26] enemies. The people won't stand for it. [33:32] Anyway, that's what I wanted to share [33:34] with you. Um, I hope uh you found this [33:36] helpful and interesting and uh we will [33:38] do more of this in the coming days and [33:41] months ahead. And uh please make sure to [33:43] sign up for that webinar. You'll find uh [33:45] you'll find the link in the description [33:46] of this video. And please subscribe, [33:48] like, comment, all that great stuff. God [33:51] bless.
