Transcript [00:01] Hey everyone. So, I want to give you an [00:03] update on where things stand with the [00:05] Israeli election. Now, in this video, [00:07] I'm not going to explain how the Israeli [00:09] elections work. I've already made a [00:10] video about that. And frankly, the best [00:13] video I've seen explaining the entire [00:16] complex system of how Israeli elections [00:18] work from before election day all the [00:20] way through to the to the forming of a [00:21] coalition, [00:23] the best video I've seen is done by my [00:25] son Mayor. I'm going to put it as the [00:26] pinned comment in this video. So, if you [00:29] want to really If you want to get a [00:30] great explainer video, really running [00:33] you through the entire process, watch my [00:35] son Mayor's video. [00:37] What we're going to do in this video is [00:38] pretty straightforward. We're going to [00:39] look at two different polls that were [00:42] both released in the last 24 hours. [00:45] Okay, over the last just on Sunday. [00:49] Uh and they're very different from each [00:51] other. So, I talked about this in an [00:53] earlier video about elections that [00:55] polling in Israel is extremely [00:57] unreliable. Now, some of you are rolling [00:59] your eyes and saying, "Well, polling in [01:00] America is also unreliable because they [01:02] lie, etc., etc." That [01:05] there are definitely flaws in polling [01:07] everywhere. Polling is an inexact [01:09] science. There's also [01:11] probably some shenanigans that go on. [01:13] But, the difference is that when you [01:15] look at polling in the United States, [01:17] every time a poll is published, you can [01:19] download the cross-tabs. You could take [01:22] a look at the actual questions that were [01:23] asked. You can [snorts] see the exact [01:26] demographic breakdown, and that's where [01:27] you see some of the manipulation. You'll [01:29] sometimes see that they polled a certain [01:31] segment of the population lower at a [01:34] lower percentage than they actually are [01:36] in the population or at a higher [01:37] percentage. Uh or you know, that the [01:39] demographics, you know, can be off or [01:41] the way they ask the questions. You can [01:43] see everything in the cross-tabs. So, [01:44] there is a certain amount of [01:45] transparency, even if the top-line [01:48] numbers that get reported in the media [01:50] aren't exactly accurate. But, in Israel, [01:53] the this problem is way worse because [01:55] polling companies in Israel do not [01:58] publish cross tabs. They do not reveal [02:00] anything that's going on under the hood [02:02] of how they got to their to their [02:04] polling numbers. Sometimes, I've seen [02:07] this in polls that are published in the [02:08] newspaper especially, sometimes they'll [02:11] have a [02:13] like just a little comment at the bottom [02:15] that says that the poll was conducted [02:16] online, for example, or the poll was or [02:20] how exactly they did it. Just a [02:21] one-liner about the methodology, but [02:23] they don't reveal to you the actual nuts [02:25] and bolts of what went into the poll. [02:27] So, with all that said, [02:29] uh that my point is that polling in [02:32] Israel historically is extremely [02:35] unreliable, even more unreliable than [02:37] polling in the US. [02:39] But, it's also unreliable in a very [02:40] specific way. I went back in an earlier [02:43] video, I went back four election cycles [02:46] and showed that the polling in Israeli [02:48] elections consistently, every single [02:51] election, [02:52] predicts a stronger showing for the left [02:56] than for the right. It always over [02:58] predict it always again predicts a more [03:01] positive outcome for the for the for the [03:04] left, and [snorts] the right-wing [03:06] coalition, which for the last 30 years [03:08] has been the Netanyahu-led coalition, [03:11] always comes out on top. And that that [03:13] this doesn't go back decades, but it [03:15] does go back uh [03:18] it does go back at least the last four [03:19] election cycles, maybe it goes back [03:21] longer. But, that's the that's the [03:22] consistent trend. [03:25] So, what I'm going to look at here in [03:27] this video is two polls, one done by a [03:29] mainstream media {slash} left-wing [03:31] outlet, uh and that's uh Kan 11, one of [03:34] the major uh one of the major TV [03:37] networks in Israel, and another one that [03:39] was published on Channel 14, which is [03:41] more of the right-wing, more politically [03:42] conservative, [03:44] pro-Netanyahu. They're actually a little [03:46] bit over the top in being a mouthpiece [03:48] for Netanyahu, and you know, for the for [03:50] the right-wing coalition, [03:52] and they have their pollster [03:54] Filber. Now, Filber's polls over [03:56] the last few election cycles have turned [03:59] out to be more accurate because they [04:01] also [04:02] skew to the right. [04:04] Uh but we're going to take a look at the [04:05] two polls and we're going to and we're [04:07] going to talk about what this might mean [04:09] you know, if the truth is somewhere in [04:10] between or what it might mean according [04:12] to each poll, what it will look like if [04:14] these results take place on election [04:16] day. [04:17] What does that mean going forward? Now, [04:19] before we even get into all of that [04:21] because we're in election season, I want [04:23] to make sure that you know about this [04:24] very exciting webinar that we're doing [04:26] uh in a few days. We're going to be [04:28] doing this on Sunday. Sunday at 2:00 [04:30] p.m. Eastern Time. Two elections, two [04:33] nations, one critical moment. We have an [04:35] unbelievable panel on this webinar. I [04:36] really like top top line people. Dr. [04:39] Gadi Taub, senior lecturer at Hebrew [04:41] University of Jerusalem, one of the top [04:43] political commentators and public [04:44] intellectuals in Israel. Mark Zell, [04:47] who's the chairman of the Republican [04:49] Party, the GOP in Israel. Very [04:51] interesting perspective he'll bring. We [04:53] have Jonathan Schanzer, very honored to [04:55] have him, the executive director of the [04:56] Foundation for Defense of for Defense of [04:58] Democracies. Will Chamberlain, uh who's [05:02] uh very important uh a political [05:04] commentator, senior counsel at Article 3 [05:06] Project in the United States. And Dr. AJ [05:09] Nolte, he's a professor at the Robertson [05:12] School of Government at Regent [05:13] University in the United States. And [05:14] they're all going to be discussing the [05:16] implications for the uh for the [05:17] Israel-US relationship and in general [05:20] for what's going on in in the world in [05:21] the Middle East of these two elections. [05:24] So, that is this coming Sunday, 2:00 [05:26] p.m. Eastern Time. You don't want to [05:27] miss that. [05:28] Uh and that will be [05:30] and because it's uh for those of you in [05:32] Israel, we uh Israel's changing its [05:34] clocks this week uh and the United [05:36] States is not. So, this is a 6-hour [05:38] difference. [05:39] Excuse me. So, live time in Israel will [05:41] be 8:00 p.m. But, even if you can't make [05:45] it live you should still register for [05:47] this webinar because by registering you [05:49] will automatically receive a link to [05:52] watch the full webinar after it airs. [05:54] So, it doesn't matter if you can make it [05:55] or not. Make sure that you are [05:56] registered for the webinar. You can [05:58] register at the link in the description [05:59] of this video. [06:01] Or you can [06:03] you can scan this QR code and it'll take [06:06] you through to the registration page. [06:07] Okay, so make sure you don't want to [06:08] miss this this coming Sunday 2:00 p.m. [06:10] Eastern time if you want to catch it [06:12] live. Okay, let's go to these two polls. [06:15] So, let's start with this one. Here we [06:17] go. This is from Kan News. So, this is a [06:20] mainstream media or left-leaning news [06:22] outlet. [06:23] And here's their poll. This is from this [06:26] was published yesterday or this morning. [06:29] Here we go. [06:30] So, they have as their top parties. [06:33] Here's what I did on this on this chart. [06:35] The parties in red [06:37] are part of what what they're calling [06:39] themselves the change block. These are [06:42] parties that are campaigning overtly as [06:46] saying we will never sit with Netanyahu. [06:48] We want a change. [06:50] Mostly they lean left but not entirely. [06:52] We'll get into that in a moment. But [06:53] these are the parties that are currently [06:55] part of the opposition that are Jewish [06:58] parties, meaning they're Zionist Israeli [07:01] parties. When I say Jewish meaning that [07:02] most of their people are Jewish, meaning [07:04] that they're not Arab parties. Okay, so [07:06] that's the red parties here. [07:08] The parties in blue are parties that are [07:10] part of the the current Netanyahu [07:13] coalition. [07:14] Okay? [07:15] Part of the current Netanyahu coalition. [07:17] That's the blue ones. And then we have [07:19] the Arab parties that are in green. [07:22] And then in purple we have [07:25] a new party. And if there were more [07:27] there'd be more purple lines, but we [07:28] have purple is for new parties [07:31] that it's not clear what block they'd be [07:33] in [07:34] if they if they get in at all. Okay, so [07:36] let's go through what these results [07:38] show. So, according to these results [07:41] the largest party would be Yesh Atid, [07:43] led by Gadi Eisenkot. Gadi Eisenkot is a [07:45] former [07:47] general, a former chief of staff [07:49] uh in in the Israeli in the IDF. [07:51] And uh he is he's looking to unseat [07:54] Netanyahu. He was briefly part of [07:56] Netanyahu's coalition at the beginning [07:58] of the war and then he left. [07:59] Uh but he is he is the choice for most [08:03] of the opposition for most most people [08:05] who want to remove Netanyahu from office [08:07] right now. He is the lead candidate to [08:10] replace Netanyahu. Just uh again, I'm [08:12] not going to go into all the details of [08:13] how it works, but in Israel we do not [08:15] vote for prime minister. We vote for a [08:17] party. And the party [08:19] the one of the largest parties the [08:21] largest party in each block, the head of [08:23] that party traditionally almost always [08:26] there's a there was a couple [08:28] there's a there's there are very rare [08:29] exceptions. [08:31] Um I'm not going to get into that right [08:32] now. But basically what happens is the [08:35] the leader of the largest party in each [08:37] block is the candidate for for prime [08:39] minister pretty much. I'm not Again, if [08:41] you want to see all the details of how [08:42] that works, watch my son's video that's [08:45] in the pinned comment below. [08:47] But suffice it to say that the largest [08:48] party according to their polls is Yesh [08:50] Atid by Eisen led by Eisenkot. [08:53] Okay, with 23 seats. [08:55] Uh they then also have Naftali Bennett, [08:58] a former prime minister, and he was the [08:59] exception to the rule. He was prime [09:00] minister even though he only got six [09:02] seats. That was a bunch of years ago. Uh [09:04] very controversial situation. But [09:06] Naftali Bennett is leading a party [09:08] called Biacha. They have 12 seats. [09:10] And [snorts] then the [09:12] a party that actually calls themselves [09:13] the Democrats, which is amazing. They [09:15] named themselves after an American [09:17] political party. But this is Or Ha [09:19] Democratim in Hebrew. And this is an [09:21] amalgam of the old Labor Party [09:24] and uh a party called Meretz, both [09:26] left-wing parties. Meretz and Labor both [09:29] shrank down so small that last election [09:33] Labor barely got in and Meretz missed [09:35] the threshold to get in and therefore [09:38] they they bonded together now and [09:40] they're polling at nine seats according [09:42] to this. [09:43] And then we have Yisrael Beiteinu. [09:45] Yisrael Beiteinu was a party led by [09:46] Avigdor Lieberman. Avigdor Lieberman is [09:50] this party is an interesting party. [09:52] They they originated as the party of the [09:55] Russian immigrants and still today a lot [09:58] of their voters are Russian immigrants. [09:59] I've seen polling that shows about half [10:01] of their voters today are still [10:02] immigrants from the former Soviet Union. [10:05] And that's how that party began. But [10:06] what it basically is is a party that is [10:09] that according to its platform is very [10:13] let's say nationalistic and hawkish. And [10:16] what we'd call right-wing on defense and [10:18] security issues. On the other hand, they [10:22] are 100% opposed to any concessions to [10:26] the Haredim, to the ultra-Orthodox, to [10:28] giving exemptions for people to serve in [10:30] the military. We'll get into that in a [10:31] bit. It's it's it's turning out to be [10:34] maybe the biggest issue in this [10:36] campaign. [10:37] Here for a lot of the parties it's the [10:38] number one issue in the campaign is [10:40] ending this whole [10:41] this whole situation that's gone on [10:43] since the founding of the state of [10:44] Israel where [10:46] in the ultra-Orthodox community the [10:48] standard is that that everyone's exempt [10:50] from serving in the military cuz they're [10:51] all registered as students studying [10:54] Torah all the time. Very controversial [10:56] and causes it's [10:58] it's a real open wound in Israeli [11:00] society. In any event, Yisrael Beiteinu [11:03] led by Lieberman, they're polling here [11:04] at eight seats. Avigdor Lieberman who [11:06] leads that who leads that party [11:09] has served in some very senior [11:11] positions. He's been part of Netanyahu's [11:13] coalition in the past and past [11:14] governments. He served as defense [11:16] minister. [11:17] He's been a very prominent politician on [11:19] the Israeli scene. So again, he leans he [11:22] leans to the right at least at least in [11:23] what he says about defense and security [11:26] issues. On the other hand, he has been [11:28] part of left-wing coalitions as well. He [11:30] was even part of a coalition that [11:31] included Arab parties which is very [11:33] controversial. We'll get into that in a [11:34] bit. So, but according to this, you see [11:36] that the the opposition parties, which [11:38] are really only these four parties, [11:41] they have a common they're polling at a [11:43] combination of if you combine them all [11:45] at 52 seats. Now, you need to have 61 [11:48] seats to form a coalition. [11:50] The coalition parties, the parties that [11:52] are currently in the coalition, right? [11:53] You have Likud is polling at 21. [11:56] Uh Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit party [12:00] polling at eight. Shas, which is an [12:03] ultra-Orthodox party, a Haredi party, uh [12:05] which represents the Sephardic Haredi [12:07] community with eight seats. [12:10] Uh Religious Zionism and Zehut, that is [12:12] a uh [12:13] a merger of two parties. One of them [12:16] They're both religious Zionists pretty [12:17] much. Uh but uh [12:19] uh that party is polling at seven. [12:21] That's led by Bezalel Smotrich. And also [12:23] you have uh [12:24] uh Moshe Feiglin, who leader of Zehut [12:27] party in there. And they are their their [12:30] main thing is is the settlements, is [12:33] increasing the Jewish presence in Judea [12:35] and Samaria, moving towards sovereignty [12:37] in Judea and Samaria. Uh and and also uh [12:42] doing the same thing about expanding [12:43] settlement activity outside of Judea and [12:45] Samaria, but moving Jews into areas that [12:48] are sparsely populated in the country [12:49] like in the Negev and in parts of the [12:51] Galilee. So, that's their big issue of [12:54] uh of religious Zionism. [12:56] Um [12:57] uh that's who they are. And the UTJ, [13:00] that's the United Torah Judaism, that is [13:01] the non-Sephardic, the the Ashkenazic [13:05] ultra-Orthodox party. So, UTJ and Shas [13:07] pretty much go in lockstep with each [13:09] other. [13:10] Uh they tend to vote together. They tend [13:11] to go in or out of coalitions together, [13:13] not always, but but usually. [13:16] But these are the parties that are [13:17] currently in Netanyahu's government. And [13:19] together they're polling here at 51 [13:22] seats. So, neither of the two blocks on [13:23] its own has a majority of 61. [13:27] Now, the Arab parties, they have two [13:29] lists running and according to this [13:31] poll, they get a total between them of [13:33] 13 seats, eight for the joint list, [13:37] and five. A joint list because it's a [13:39] it's a blend of three small parties, [13:41] and they they they run as one list [13:43] together. So, they're getting eight and [13:45] Ra'am is getting five. And then we have [13:48] this brand new party called [13:53] three [13:54] three tiny little brand new parties that [13:56] wanted to get started that none of them [13:58] had enough support to run on their own [14:00] to pass the threshold. You have to get [14:02] 3.25% of the total vote in order to get [14:05] in and that entitles you to four seats. [14:07] So, the minimum number of seats you can [14:08] get getting into Knesset [14:10] is four seats and none of them had [14:12] enough to get four seats, but they and [14:15] they got together these three parties [14:17] and [14:19] and [14:19] what it is it's called [14:20] Reservists-Economic, because the number [14:22] one person on the list, Yoaz Hendel, [14:24] his he's a he's got a [14:28] a very [14:31] a record of significant military service [14:33] and he's advocating for the reservists, [14:36] for those people who fought the war, [14:39] >> [laughter] [14:39] >> who fought the war, [14:41] to look out for their interests and a [14:43] major issue for him is number one issue [14:45] and and why he's getting so much support [14:47] among young people and he is [14:50] is [14:51] is his [14:52] his insistence that there can be no more [14:55] draft exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox [14:57] community. [14:58] So, from the people that I talked to, a [15:00] lot of younger people in the religious [15:02] Zionist community who are upset about [15:05] this issue about the draft exemptions [15:07] while they're out there fighting the [15:08] war, [15:09] a lot of them are voting for this party. [15:12] I just again, I've just been I've been [15:14] talking to young people over the last [15:15] few weeks and I'm finding that there's a [15:17] lot of support for this party and that's [15:20] actually cutting into support for [15:21] religious Zionism, because although the [15:22] religious Zionist party [15:24] represents of the community that all [15:26] serves in in the military and has the [15:29] highest rates of casualties in combat [15:31] service, [15:32] a lot of the people in that community [15:33] are very upset that the religious [15:35] Zionist party goes along with the draft [15:37] exemptions in order to keep the [15:39] coalition together. So, there's So, [15:41] that's where they're drawing a lot of [15:42] support from. And the number two person [15:44] on this list [15:45] is [15:46] um [15:47] it is someone who is a a well-known [15:50] economist who has all kinds of ideas [15:52] about lowering the cost of living. So, [15:54] the cost of the high cost of living in [15:56] Israel is a major issue also again for [15:58] young people. Voters of this party tend [16:00] to be very young. [16:01] Young voters are also more inclined to [16:03] vote for brand new parties. [16:05] Uh and [16:06] the and so there So, they've put [16:07] together this issue of the of the of [16:10] military service and the issue of [16:12] lowering [16:13] of lowering the cost of living and so [16:15] and sorting some things out [16:16] economically. And then the third person [16:17] on the list is Ayna Wilf, [16:19] who's a very interesting woman. I [16:21] interviewed her on my channel. You can [16:22] find the interview. It's a recent [16:24] episode of Shoulder to Shoulder. [16:25] I interviewed Ayna Wilf. [16:28] Um you can learn all about her views [16:29] there. She's a very interesting person [16:31] because she still considers herself part [16:32] of the left. She's not a She's not [16:34] religious. [16:35] She used to work for Shimon Peres back [16:37] in the day, but she is very hardline on [16:40] the issue of how to deal with the [16:42] Palestinians in Gaza [16:44] uh [16:44] >> [snorts] [16:44] >> and and also very hardline on the issue [16:47] of not allowing any more draft [16:48] exemptions for uh for the Haredi [16:53] um for the Haredim. [16:54] So, therefore, that that party they kind [16:56] of all see eye to eye on certain things [16:58] even though they have different issues [16:59] that they care mostly most about. [17:02] Uh and [17:03] and they're they're polling at just [17:05] passing the [17:08] the threshold. Now, over the course of [17:10] the last uh little while, they've been [17:12] polling in different uh you know, to [17:14] different numbers. So, in some polls [17:15] they've been below it, in some polls [17:16] they've been above it. So, according to [17:17] this poll, what do we see here? [17:20] We see that neither the opposition or [17:22] the coalition block can form a [17:24] government even if they got this [17:27] Reservist Economic Party to join them, [17:29] but the Reservist Economic Party [17:31] will never sit in a coalition with [17:32] Netanyahu that includes Shas and UTJ [17:37] because they'll never go along with [17:38] draft exemptions. [17:40] And [17:41] they would also have a hard time sitting [17:42] with with the opposition because with [17:44] the opposition it would be it would be [17:47] it would First of all, it still wouldn't [17:48] get them across the threshold. Neither [17:49] of them would get across the threshold [17:51] even with them. But they also hold [17:53] certain positions that don't really sit [17:54] well with the opposition, certain [17:56] positions they hold about about the Gaza [17:58] Strip, [17:59] about how to deal with that situation. [18:01] And then you have these 13 Arab parties. [18:03] So, it seems like no one can make a [18:04] coalition without the Arab parties [18:06] unless someone in this in one of the two [18:10] sides is willing to to switch sides, and [18:12] that can happen. There can be There's [18:15] There's a history of that where you can [18:17] have what's called a unity government [18:18] where the two largest parties, in this [18:20] case Likud and Eisenkot, might get [18:22] together and form what's called a unity [18:24] government. That could take place. I [18:26] think it's unlikely here, uh but it [18:28] could happen. Um there would be a lot of [18:30] people who voted for Eisenkot that would [18:32] see that as a betrayal if it kept [18:33] Netanyahu in power. [18:35] And then you'd have a kind of prime [18:36] minister sharing relationship. This has [18:38] happened in Israeli history where the [18:40] office of prime minister ends up [18:42] rotating between two people. [18:44] Um you could also have a situation where [18:47] uh where they the opposition and the [18:49] left wants to put together a coalition, [18:50] and one of the and they promise draft [18:53] exemptions to the ultra-Orthodox, but [18:54] that might fracture their coalition in [18:56] other ways. [18:57] Um it's [18:59] it's going to be interesting to see, but [19:00] you see already here that there's the [19:02] the the possibility for a stalemate is [19:04] quite high. [19:05] There's a very strong suspicion on the [19:08] right that that in the opposition and on [19:10] the left they're kind of denying, but [19:12] kind of not denying that they will try [19:14] to form a government with the Arab [19:15] parties. And the reason that this is so [19:17] taboo is not racism, it's that the Arab [19:19] parties in Israel are literally [19:21] anti-Zionist. They're anti-the state of [19:23] Israel. They hold political positions [19:25] that are in favor of Israel's enemies. [19:29] So, it's very controversial. It's almost [19:32] never been done in Israel's history [19:33] except for a very brief period a few [19:35] years ago and it was extremely [19:36] controversial. [19:37] Uh almost never been done to have them [19:39] part of a governing coalition. So, you [19:40] see here the recipe there's a real [19:42] possibility of a serious stalemate. Now, [19:44] let's go to the other slide of the [19:47] of the um of the other poll. So, here's [19:49] now the Channel 14 poll. This is from [19:52] the same day. According to this poll, [19:54] Likud has 29 seats, far more than the [19:58] other poll. Now, that's not a rounding [19:59] error, understand. These polls are not [20:01] describing the same reality. [20:04] Totally different. But, look at this [20:05] according to this poll, Likud has 29 [20:07] seats. [20:09] And if you just look at their coalition, [20:11] Shas with 10, UTJ with eight, Religious [20:13] Zionism and Zehut with seven, Otzma with [20:16] seven. Those are very similar. These [20:18] numbers in the other poll, UTJ had [20:19] seven, Religious Zionism had eight. I'm [20:22] sorry, also had seven, Otzma had eight. [20:24] These were all basically similar [20:25] numbers. Shas, I think had 10 in the [20:27] other poll as well. [20:29] So, you see here that most of these [20:30] numbers are the same, but the big flip [20:33] is whether is how much Likud is getting. [20:35] In the previous poll, [20:37] just to flip you back to that one, in [20:39] the previous poll, Likud had 21 and in [20:41] this poll, Likud has 29. Massive, [20:45] massive difference. And it makes all the [20:46] difference in the world. [20:48] Uh so, according to this poll, [20:50] the blue coalition is 61 seats. They [20:53] already have it all by themselves. [20:56] They have it all by themselves in this. [20:58] Look at that. Now, according to this, [20:59] the the Arabs get the same number, 13 in [21:02] both polls. [21:03] So, the big change, where does the big [21:04] change come in? Here we have Eisenkot [21:06] getting 22. In the previous poll, he was [21:09] getting [21:11] I'm sorry. [21:13] In the previous poll, he was getting 23. [21:15] So, that's pretty much the same. [21:17] And in this poll, [21:19] we have Bennett getting 10. [21:22] Right? And what did he have in the [21:23] previous poll? [21:25] In the previous poll, Bennett was [21:27] getting 12. So, that's a difference of [21:29] two for that party, which is pretty [21:30] significant. Uh it's not as the same as [21:33] the difference for Likud. We have Shas [21:35] in the Channel 14 poll gets 10, right? [21:37] And here, again, here they got eight. [21:39] So, they get a little bit more in this [21:41] one. The Democrats in this poll get [21:43] eight. And in the pre- in the other one, [21:45] they were getting nine. So, this these [21:47] slight changes all add up. [21:49] But the big difference in this poll is [21:51] the new party not getting in. [21:53] Right? Cuz here here we also have uh [21:54] Lieberman's party, Yisrael Beiteinu, [21:56] getting six. And in the previous poll, [21:58] they were polling a little bit higher at [22:00] eight. [22:02] And we have the Arab parties who are [22:03] coming in right around the same. But the [22:05] big difference is that that brand new [22:07] party doesn't cross the threshold here. [22:10] And in this one, Netanyahu can form the [22:12] exact same coalition he has today. He [22:14] doesn't have to add anyone to it, and [22:16] he'll have a narrow coalition of 61. [22:18] That's kind of dangerous, cuz that's [22:19] right on the edge if any if there's any [22:22] uh [22:23] uh you know, that means that everyone [22:25] has him over a barrel. [22:26] Uh if he has a coalition that that's [22:28] just barely 61. [22:30] Um [22:31] and and in this in this map as well, the [22:35] opposition has no ability whatsoever to [22:37] form a coalition without taking one of [22:39] the parties [22:40] from Netanyahu's from Netanyahu's [22:42] coalition, which was the same in the [22:43] other in the other poll, as well. Either [22:46] the only way that they could make a [22:47] coalition in the previous poll [22:49] would be by going with the Arabs. Right? [22:51] If they go with the Arab parties, they [22:52] can make a they can make a a government [22:54] here, but that would be, again, hugely [22:57] hugely controversial in Israel, um and [22:59] it would it would would seen as a [23:00] betrayal by a lot of people. [23:02] Um [23:04] but [23:05] you know, these are the two polls. I [23:06] wanted to show you the two polls so that [23:08] we understand how [23:10] uh you you know, how far apart [23:13] how far apart these polls are and how [23:15] much room there is for someone to call [23:18] it a surprise election. [23:20] Uh but that's where things stand today. [23:22] So, what's the most likely outcome? [23:23] That's the real question we have to ask [23:24] ourselves. Based on everything that [23:26] we're seeing, what is the most likely [23:28] outcome of the election? [23:30] Um it looks like we're we could be [23:31] headed for a stalemate. [23:33] Or [23:35] uh if the Channel 14 poll is correct, [23:37] and I'm going to say it again, [23:39] Filber who does those polls in the last [23:40] four election cycles, his polls right [23:43] before election day were the most [23:45] accurate of all polling. That doesn't [23:47] mean he got it exactly right. And even [23:49] according to his poll, Netanyahu's [23:50] coalition is the bare minimum 61. [23:54] So, [23:56] uh [23:57] there's there's a real chance here of of [23:59] some kind of a stalemate. [24:00] If one of those if one of the smaller [24:02] parties, the party that's that's uh [24:03] shown here is the most likely, [24:05] uh gets across, [24:07] then that throws everything uh that [24:09] throws all the cards up in the air. [24:11] And it will mean that in the [24:13] negotiations that take place after the [24:15] election and all the horse trading that [24:16] takes place, [24:18] uh there will be efforts by [24:20] one side or the other to get a party [24:23] that was that was campaigning that they [24:25] wouldn't sit with the other side to [24:27] switch sides, promise them something, [24:29] make some sort of deal to get them to [24:31] switch sides. Uh that's that's where we [24:34] seem to be. So, some of you uh will [24:37] remember that a few years ago we had [24:39] three elections in quick succession [24:41] because we couldn't form a coalition. [24:43] There is a possibility, a real [24:45] possibility, that we're heading in that [24:46] direction again. [24:47] So, that's where things stand as of now [24:49] according to the polling. [24:50] Uh you can take it for what it's worth. [24:53] And uh I'm going to make I'm going to [24:54] make more videos about the election. I'm [24:55] going to do another video today about [24:57] the Trump Bibi relationship and Trump's [25:02] endorsement of Netanyahu, which is [25:03] causing quite a stir. We have to talk [25:05] about that, but I'm going to do it in a [25:06] separate video. All right, thanks for [25:08] watching. Please like, share, subscribe, [25:10] and make sure to click on that [25:13] to sign up for the webinar and check out [25:15] my son's video about how elections work [25:17] in the pinned comment in this one. [25:19] God bless.
