Transcript [00:00] Hey everyone. So, I want to talk to you [00:02] today about a country [00:05] that we don't pay much attention to and [00:08] that's a mistake and that is Iraq. This [00:11] video is going to be about Iraq. I think [00:13] Iraq is about to become one of the most [00:15] important stories. It really has been [00:17] but we just don't notice it enough. So, [00:20] let's start with a map. [00:22] And this goes along with, you know, what [00:23] I was saying [00:25] about a week or a week or two ago where [00:27] I'm going to start doing videos where we [00:28] just kind of focus on different [00:30] countries in the Middle East and talk [00:31] about where they're at right now cuz [00:33] there's a lot going on with Iraq. Okay, [00:35] so here's our map. [00:37] Here's our map. Take a look at Iraq. [00:39] Iraq is it's pretty clear to see on the [00:40] map. [00:42] Look where Look where it sits, right? It [00:44] borders Iran. It borders [00:47] Turkey. [00:49] Right, it borders Iran here and here's [00:52] Turkey [00:53] and Syria and Jordan [00:56] and Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. [01:00] Okay, it opens up onto the Gulf onto the [01:03] Persian Gulf, right? Heading out toward [01:05] the Strait of Hormuz and it's also I [01:07] mean it's [01:09] it's like a bridge country. You can see [01:11] that just by looking at it on the map [01:13] what the strategic importance is. Okay, [01:15] so keep that all in mind. It's [01:18] I could consider it the seam of the [01:20] Middle East, right? It's the hinge [01:21] between the Gulf states, the Levant with [01:25] Turkey and Syria and all that, [01:27] Iran. [01:29] And that geography is exactly why every [01:31] single time there's a major war in this [01:33] region it ends up running through [01:35] Baghdad. Not a great place if you want [01:37] peace and quiet. So, Iraq's own economy [01:41] depends almost entirely on Gulf shipping [01:43] lanes. Right, the same lanes that Iran [01:45] has [01:46] has been messing around with that have [01:48] been the big issue heading out to the [01:49] Strait of Hormuz. [01:52] So, when a war like this happens, Iraq [01:56] is involved whether they like it or not. [02:00] So, that's the frame for everything that [02:02] I want to walk you through now. Okay, [02:03] now here's the thing that um [02:06] we need to understand. [02:09] There are two separate storylines, [02:12] important storylines that relate to Iraq [02:15] where it is politically, geopolitically. [02:17] And they're they're two separate [02:19] storylines that are building at the same [02:21] time and they've been building for over [02:22] a year [02:24] and they and they come to a head during [02:27] this war. So, let's set them both up. [02:28] Thread number one, story number one, has [02:31] to do with the Americans, with [02:33] Washington, and the militias. Of course, [02:36] the Americans have had a presence in [02:38] Iraq for a long time. [02:41] And they want to get their troops out of [02:43] there. Trump has talked about getting [02:44] them out of there this fall. [02:46] Uh and he wants to draw that all down. [02:49] The Americans have been, you know, the [02:51] adventures in Iraq are well known. [02:53] When President Trump took office in [02:55] January 2025, one of the very first [02:57] things his administration did behind the [02:59] scenes was they started pressuring [03:02] Baghdad, [03:03] the Iraqis. They started pressuring them [03:04] hard to disarm all of the Iran-aligned [03:08] militias operating inside Iraq. When I [03:10] say all of the Iran-aligned militias, [03:12] there's a bunch of them. Okay, these are [03:14] groups under the umbrella known as the [03:16] Islamic Resistance in Iraq. Uh there's [03:19] Kata'ib Hezbollah, there's Harakat [03:21] al-Nujaba, there's others. There's a [03:23] whole bunch of these militias. [03:25] And at the time, [03:28] back in January 2025, we're talking [03:29] about roughly 50,000 fighters. And these [03:32] aren't just guys running around with [03:33] machine guns. They have long-range [03:35] missiles, they have anti-aircraft [03:37] missiles, [03:38] and they operate largely largely outside [03:42] of actual Iraqi state control. I say [03:44] largely because there is this [03:46] this weird hybrid where these militias [03:48] are part of this this uh this [03:51] semi-governmental body that is the [03:54] defense forces. It's kind of their [03:56] answer to what happens in Lebanon where [03:57] you have terrorist groups there like [03:59] Hezbollah who aren't part of the state, [04:01] but they're kind of aligned with the [04:03] state. Anyway, the way they have it in [04:05] Iraq is is a bunch of these militias [04:08] they actually get I made a video about [04:09] this like a month ago or so, maybe you [04:11] saw it that some of them even get their [04:13] paycheck from the Iraqi government even [04:15] though they're [04:16] they're separate militias. It's it's [04:18] strange. [04:19] Bear with me here, okay? I'll try to [04:22] keep it simple. [04:24] April 2025, few months later [04:27] and and and Reuters [04:30] reports. Here, let me pull this up. [04:32] Here's a Reuters report from April 2025, [04:35] Iran-backed militias in Iraq ready to [04:38] disarm to avert Trump wrath. So, you [04:41] already had some progress where some of [04:43] them were like, "Whoa, we don't want to [04:44] get in Trump's way. We're willing to [04:46] fold ourselves into the state and disarm [04:48] ourselves and cease to be separate [04:50] militias." [04:52] And according to this Reuters report, [04:54] they even had Iran's blessing and they [04:57] were signaling a willingness to disarm [04:59] because again, fear of American [05:02] uh airstrikes. [05:03] Now, so there's the there's the there's [05:06] the threat of [05:08] the terrorist militias, the Iran-backed [05:11] militias, the Iran-aligned militias in [05:14] Iraq that America [05:17] has wanted [05:18] to [05:20] have disarmed and disbanded ever since [05:22] Trump came into office. Nothing to do [05:23] with this current war. [05:26] And then there's threat number two, [05:28] which is that Iraq's own government is [05:31] chaos. It's falling apart. [05:34] So, completely separately from this [05:35] other narrative, Iraq held elections in [05:38] November 2025. [05:40] And the process of actually forming a [05:42] government after the election got stuck. [05:47] The Now, the block [05:50] the block that actually decides who [05:53] becomes Prime Minister in Iraq is [05:55] something called the coordination [05:57] framework. The coordination framework is [05:59] a collection [06:01] uh a coalition is a better term of [06:03] Shiite parties [06:06] that is traditionally [06:08] aligned with Iran. Not all Shiites in [06:10] Iraq are aligned with Iran. There are [06:12] parties that are not. We'll mention that [06:14] soon. I'll get back to that in a minute. [06:19] Sorry, just a little cough. [06:21] So, the coalition I'm sorry, the [06:23] coordination framework is a coalition of [06:26] Shiite parties that is Iran's political [06:29] camp in Iraq. And they are the [06:31] kingmakers. They're large enough that [06:33] they basically decide who's going to be [06:36] uh who's going to become Prime Minister. [06:39] So, the same government that [06:42] Washington is pressuring to disarm [06:44] Iran's militias [06:46] is [06:47] the the main power source there that's [06:50] going to choose the next head of state [06:52] is also aligned with [06:55] Iran. [06:56] Keep that in mind. So, that's going to [06:58] pre- That's going to create tension. [07:01] Let's fast forward to January 2026, this [07:04] last January, right before the war [07:07] with everything Remember all the riots [07:08] going on, all the killing going on in [07:10] Iran, that period, January 2026. [07:13] The sitting Prime Minister [07:15] from before the election, who was still [07:17] Prime Minister until the new government [07:18] gets formed, was a guy by the name of [07:20] Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. He steps aside [07:24] clearing the way for the coordination [07:27] framework, this coalition of Shiite [07:29] parties, to nominate [07:31] a new Prime Minister. And they nominate [07:33] a familiar name, the former Prime [07:35] Minister named Nouri al-Maliki. [07:39] And Trump did not like this. [07:42] Okay, Trump was was uh none too happy [07:45] and he he put out a post about it and [07:48] here's a headline from CNN from back [07:50] then from back in late January. Trump [07:52] warns against Nouri al-Maliki's return [07:55] as Prime Minister of Iraq. So, Trump [07:58] wasn't happy. [08:00] And Trump posted uh publicly at the time [08:03] that America would no longer help Iraq [08:05] if Maliki came back into power. He [08:07] called out his record from his first [08:08] term in office. [08:10] Think of what's going on in late [08:11] January. This is late January. [08:14] This is when America is building up and [08:15] building up its forces [08:17] in the Persian Gulf getting ready to [08:19] attack Iran while there's still these [08:21] sort of negotiations going on. It's in [08:22] the wake of the slaughter of tens of [08:24] thousands of Iranian citizens and it's [08:26] that period where we're all like [08:27] anticipating the war that's going to [08:29] come and in the middle of all of that [08:30] Iraq announces that they're appointing [08:34] this coordination this coordination [08:36] framework announces they're they're [08:38] appointing a pro-Iranian former Prime [08:40] Minister and Trump says, "No way." [08:44] So, [08:46] now in Baghdad they have they have a [08:49] they have a domestic government crisis. [08:52] They have to create a government. [08:54] And America's basically videoing it [08:56] because American support is is too much [08:59] to turn their back on. They cannot run a [09:02] foul of President Trump at this point. [09:05] So, [09:07] this is what's going on. So, [09:08] simultaneously you have these dual [09:10] pressures coming from America. You have [09:12] the pressure that had been going on for [09:13] over a year to disarm the pro-Iranian [09:16] militias and disband them. And then you [09:19] have also Trump [09:21] pressuring them to appoint someone other [09:24] than Maliki as a head of state. Okay? [09:27] That's the state of play before the war [09:30] breaks out. [09:32] Now, right before the war begins, the [09:34] war begins February 28th, less than 24 [09:37] hours before it, [09:39] the uh a US and envoy delivers a message [09:42] to Iraq's Shiite leadership. [09:45] Sanc- Sanctions on Iraq are already [09:47] signed and sitting on the shelf. We're [09:49] ready to implement these sanctions. And [09:52] the only way to avoid them is to form a [09:55] government with someone who is not Nouri [09:57] al-Maliki. [10:00] Then February 28th, the US and Israel [10:02] launched their strikes on Iran, and in [10:04] the opening salvo, they killed the [10:05] supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei. [10:08] Right? And Iraq, of course, can't stay [10:10] out of this now. The Iran-aligned [10:12] militias inside Iraq, who America's been [10:15] pressuring them to disarm and some of [10:17] them have agreed to, right? That story? [10:19] Whatever The Iraqi militias in Iraq [10:21] start attacking on Tehran's behalf. [10:24] And they carry out drone and rocket [10:26] attacks, and they attack not and they [10:29] attack all over the place. And one of [10:31] the places they attack is the US Embassy [10:33] in Baghdad. You following the story [10:35] here? [10:37] With all of this pressure coming from [10:38] from the United States, they attack the [10:40] US Embassy in Baghdad. [10:43] Uh they attack the US Consulate in [10:45] Kurdistan. [10:47] In the in the Kurdish area, in the area [10:49] that's controlled by the Kurds. It's a [10:50] It's a There's an autonomous Kurdish [10:52] zone in Iraq. [10:53] And there's a US Consulate there, they [10:55] attack that. [10:56] They attack the US-aligned Gulf states. [11:01] Okay, again, think of the situation [11:03] here. The United States has been telling [11:05] them, "Don't appoint someone who's [11:06] pro-Iran. [11:08] Disarm the Iranian proxies, [11:11] the Iranian militias." [11:13] The war breaks out, and those very same [11:15] Iranian militias start attacking [11:16] American targets. [11:19] That's what That's what blows up then. [11:21] Iraq's economy at that point uh takes a [11:24] hit at the same time. Oil companies [11:25] start shutting down production at their [11:27] fields because they because it's not [11:29] safe to operate. There's a nationwide [11:31] blackout, food prices jump 15 to 20%, [11:35] the Iraqi dinar starts collapsing. [11:38] And then on April 21st, so this is a [11:41] this is a this is like a couple weeks [11:45] like a week and a half, two weeks after [11:47] the ceasefire goes into effect, the US [11:50] halts Iraq dollar cash shipment after [11:53] militia strikes. [11:55] Now what's that about? So Iraq [11:59] when they sell their oil to the United [12:01] States when they sell their oil they get [12:04] or whoever they sell it to, they get [12:05] some of that money [12:07] they want it in actual cash and they get [12:09] these shipments of actual US cash that [12:12] they use for all sorts of things. [12:14] And Washington froze a roughly half [12:16] billion dollar cash shipment of Iraq's [12:18] own oil revenue [12:20] and then cut security cooperation and [12:22] intelligence sharing with Iraq. [12:26] Because obviously they can't be trusted. [12:28] They were about to appoint a pro-Iran [12:30] guy, the Iranian militias are attacking [12:32] American targets. [12:35] And America basically says rein in the [12:37] militias or you're going to lose [12:38] American support entirely. [12:40] That's April, so we're now in late [12:42] April. [12:44] So now both of these threads that I [12:46] talked about, the chaos of the Iraqi [12:48] government and the issue of the Iranian [12:50] militias there are all are all coming to [12:53] a head. [12:56] On April 27th [12:58] Maliki withdraws himself as an option [13:01] for Prime Minister, Sudani, the previous [13:04] Prime Minister steps aside and the [13:05] coordination framework settles on a [13:08] total political outsider, a guy by the [13:10] name of Ali al-Zaydi. [13:13] Okay, let me pull him up here on the [13:14] screen just so you see the guy's face. [13:17] I should have pulled this up before. [13:19] Let's bring this up. [13:22] Here here he is. [13:24] Here's Zaydi. [13:27] This is him, okay? This is the guy they [13:29] appoint. [13:30] Ali al-Zaidi. [13:32] Okay? [13:33] And [13:35] and he's a complete complete outsider. [13:37] He uh [13:39] you know, he's um [13:41] just a total outsider. [13:45] Okay? [13:47] And he's a businessman. He doesn't come [13:49] from the political world at all. He is a [13:51] Shiite, [13:53] but they sell him as a completely, you [13:55] know, outside safe candidate and [13:57] Washington is happy with him. [13:59] Zaidi is sworn in in May [14:02] with a partial cabinet. [14:04] And now you have this this political [14:06] drama playing out. Right? There's [14:09] um [14:10] So here's what happened. Some of the [14:12] largest Iran-backed factions [14:15] uh decide to comply with the [14:16] disarmament. These are groups that have [14:19] functioned for years almost like a [14:20] private army loyal to Tehran. [14:23] And they hand over their weapons anyway. [14:26] Uh which is a sign of just how much [14:27] pressure Iran was willing to put on its [14:29] own proxies to avoid a bigger blowup [14:31] with Washington. You understand what I'm [14:33] saying here? [14:34] So Iran didn't want a big [14:37] a bigger blowup with Washington during [14:39] the ceasefire. [14:41] Right? This is This is late April now. [14:43] The ceasefire goes into effect April [14:44] 8th. [14:46] Trump is still pressuring them to [14:48] pressuring the Iraqis to disarm the [14:49] pro-Iranian militias, but he's also [14:51] looking at the Iranians and like, "Hey, [14:53] you better deal with your militias." [14:55] So the pro-Iranian a number of them give [14:57] up their weapons. [14:59] And then there's a guy named Muqtada [15:02] al-Sadr. [15:03] And Muqtada al-Sadr is an interesting [15:04] guy. [15:06] He's What makes him super interesting [15:08] is that he is a Shiite cleric in Iraq [15:12] um [15:13] He's a very influential He's probably [15:15] the most influential Shiite cleric in [15:16] Iraq who is not aligned with Iran. Yes, [15:19] he's Shiite, but he's not aligned with [15:21] Iran. He's more of an Iraqi nationalist. [15:23] His entire political identity is Iraqi [15:25] nationalism that Iraq should not be a [15:28] satellite of America or Iran. [15:31] So, and and then his own militia also [15:34] voluntarily disarms. [15:36] Okay, and he's [15:37] and he was trying to make a an argument [15:40] uh that that the government was making, [15:42] right? That no one is going to be a [15:44] separate armed faction. We're all going [15:45] to be part of the Iraqi state. [15:50] But, one of the most powerful [15:52] Iran-aligned factions refuses to disarm. [15:56] One of them refuses to disarm, and who [15:58] do you think it is? It's a familiar [16:00] name. It is a name It is um [16:04] uh Iraqi Hezbollah. [16:07] Okay, Iraqi Hezbollah. They are also [16:09] called Kata'ib Hezbollah. [16:11] They refuse and and they refuse to give [16:13] up their weapons. They say they're going [16:14] to keep fighting. [16:16] All right, Kata'ib Hezbollah vows to [16:18] continue armed resistance as Iraq pushes [16:20] state control over weapons. [16:24] Okay. So, we have uh so some of the [16:27] Iranian uh militias are disarming. [16:29] Kata'ib Hezbollah is not disarming. [16:32] They're not the same as Hezbollah from [16:33] Lebanon, uh but the name is not a [16:35] coincidence. They're a separate group [16:37] that uh took the same name because they [16:39] come from the same source. [16:41] Iran funds both of them. It uses both of [16:43] them [16:44] uh as arms of the same regional [16:46] strategy. Uh Kata'ib Hezbollah also has [16:49] a long violent history of direct [16:50] confrontation with US forces going back [16:52] years. [16:53] So, instead of disarming, this is this [16:55] is this is hilarious. This is like the [16:57] comic relief in the story. They offer to [17:00] become the custodian of the weapons that [17:02] are being given up by the other [17:04] militias. Isn't that nice of them? [17:06] So, they're not going to disarm, um and [17:08] and behind the scenes, the IRGC, the [17:11] Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, [17:12] Iran's uh our IRGC, [17:15] is also pressuring hold-out factions to [17:18] defy Baghdad entirely. So, some of them [17:21] disarmed, some of them they want to hold [17:24] on to. [17:25] So, what you have at this point, if [17:27] you're confused, let me simplify. You [17:28] have the Iraqi government is trying to [17:30] assert sovereignty. [17:32] Some militias are cooperating. Iran's [17:35] own IRGC is working against the [17:37] government [17:38] of Iraq. [17:40] And their main militia in Iraq, Kata'ib [17:43] Hezbollah, is refusing to disarm and [17:45] saying they're going to fight on. [17:47] That brings us to where we are now. [17:50] So, three things [17:52] which is really four things. There are [17:54] four things going on simultaneously that [17:56] are kind of colliding, and I want to [17:57] walk through each one of them. So, first [18:01] Reuters came up with a report the other [18:03] day [18:04] sort of a bombshell report. Uh this was [18:06] just a couple weeks ago. Iran's [18:08] Revolutionary Guard set up covert Iraqi [18:11] cells [18:12] to attack Gulf neighbors. [18:16] Check that out. [18:19] Small groups, it says here in this [18:21] Reuters report, 10 fighters each, [18:22] deliberately kept separate from the [18:25] Iraqi militia command structures, so [18:28] that the big-name factions can maintain [18:30] deniability. [18:31] Because that way there can be attacks [18:33] carried out, but none of the Iraqi [18:34] militias are doing it. [18:36] These cells have carried out drone [18:38] attacks on Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. [18:41] Iraqi authorities are investigating [18:43] whether one of these attacks on May 17th [18:45] caused a fire at the United Arab [18:47] Emirates uh Barakah nuclear power plant. [18:51] Okay? So, we have a drone attack traced [18:54] back to Iraqi soil hitting the nuclear [18:56] facility in the UAE. [18:59] And Iraq's government is saying, "Hey, [19:01] you know, it it it's not us." [19:05] And [19:06] you know, like the question is, who [19:09] who's responsible? Oh, it's really Iran. [19:12] It's a covert cell. So, that's what [19:14] Reuters reports. Now, this is Now, the [19:16] second thing that's going on. So, that's [19:17] one thing that's going on is that you [19:18] have these that Iran is apparently using [19:21] Iraqi soil as a launchpad for attacks. [19:26] It was rather than launch drone and [19:28] missile attacks during the ceasefire [19:30] period from their own soil, they're [19:32] sending their guys into Iraq to attack [19:35] these countries from there. [19:37] Okay, now, second thing that's happening [19:39] is the Khamenei funeral. Now, why does [19:41] that matter to Eric? Well, it's a [19:43] multi-city, multi-day event and part of [19:45] it [19:46] passes through Najaf and Karbala. [19:49] Karbala is the site of the original [19:51] battle from the founding of Shiite Islam [19:54] and some of the Khamenei funeral is [19:56] taking place in Iraq. [19:58] And this is a very interesting uh [20:01] thing. It meaning some of Think about [20:02] that. Some of Khamenei's funeral's [20:04] taking place in Iraq. [20:05] And that's really a power move in a way. [20:08] Uh it's saying it's the Iranians saying [20:09] this isn't just Iranian, this is the [20:11] whole Shiite world. [20:12] Right? There's some There's a lot of [20:13] politics surrounding this funeral. Um [20:15] good idea to go over to the Israel 365 [20:18] News Channel. I just interviewed Dr. [20:20] David Wurmser today. [20:22] Um and that conversation is going up on [20:24] the Israel 365 News Channel. I think it [20:27] might be up already. It's going up at [20:28] some point later today if it's not up [20:30] yet. And we spend a good chunk of that [20:33] conversation talking about the funeral, [20:35] the Khamenei funeral, and the [20:37] implications of what took place there. [20:39] I'm also going to make another video [20:40] about the funeral later on, but it's [20:41] actually pretty important. [20:43] Anyway, so what do you have now? You [20:45] have Iraq, which is actually [20:48] simultaneously hosting [20:51] the Khamenei funeral or part of the [20:53] procession, [20:55] and meanwhile, the IRGC's own militias [21:00] are launching attacks from Iraqi soil, [21:03] while at the same time the government is [21:04] officially trying to disarm the Iranian [21:07] militias. Okay, this is chaos. [21:11] The third thing that's happening [21:12] is there's a there's a deadline. [21:16] And it's a deadline that of course we're [21:18] going to have to watch [21:20] uh as it comes closer. [21:22] And that deadline is September 30th. So [21:24] a few months away still. This is just [21:25] from a couple days ago from June 30th. [21:27] Iraq gives pro-Iran militias until [21:30] September 30th to dissolve. So this is [21:33] that new Prime Minister [21:35] Zaidi trying to gain control of the [21:38] situation. [21:40] Okay, so Prime Minister Zaidi proposed [21:42] September 30th. [21:44] Um and the deal is that the US will pull [21:46] its remaining troops out of Iraq [21:48] completely, but only if the militias are [21:50] fully disarmed by that point. Fat chance [21:52] that that'll happen. [21:54] And and that's the trade, right? [21:55] American withdrawal in exchange for [21:58] Baghdad actually controlling its own [22:01] territory. This means that September [22:03] 30th is the moment that we'll find out [22:04] whether any of this, so the compliant [22:06] factions, the holdouts, the IRGC [22:09] pressure campaign, whether it actually [22:11] adds up to a real state monopoly on [22:14] force. Hint, it won't. Like this doesn't [22:17] this start to remind you of Lebanon [22:18] where you have a government claiming [22:20] that it's going to disarm the [22:21] Iran-backed terrorists and they really [22:22] don't have the capability to or maybe [22:24] the will to. [22:26] Whatever. September 30th is a date that [22:28] we're going to watch. It's a few months [22:29] down the road, but we'll keep that in [22:31] mind. The fourth thing that's going on [22:34] and this is the carrot that goes with [22:36] all of America's sticks. We've talked [22:38] about their sticks, warning about [22:40] sanctions, get rid of your militias, [22:43] right? And then [22:45] don't don't appoint a pro-Iran guy as [22:47] your as your Prime Minister. [22:49] But in mid-June, Trump's special envoy [22:53] to the to the area, Tom Barrack, met [22:55] with the Iraqi Prime Minister and pushed [22:57] new direction in bilateral ties. [23:00] Now what's this new direction in [23:01] bilateral ties? Well, he basically [23:03] promised him a lot of goodies if he if [23:06] he comes into the the American orbit. [23:10] Okay, um and and very [23:13] very tasty uh treats he offered him. [23:15] Chevron negotiating to develop two major [23:18] Iraqi oil fields, Starlink cleared to [23:21] operate across the country, American oil [23:23] companies that had pulled out for safety [23:25] reasons coming back in with US security [23:28] guarantees, a memorandum to rehab a [23:31] major pipeline route to the [23:32] Mediterranean, a new terminal plan to [23:34] import natural gas for Iraq's power [23:37] grid. Okay, these are all massive [23:39] undertakings basically saying we are [23:42] going to help you become a prosperous, [23:45] stable economy, but you have to play [23:48] ball, you have to be in our orbit. [23:50] And Barrak also confirmed the big one [23:53] that Zaidi is heading to the White House [23:55] in mid-July, meaning any day now. [23:57] There's as I checked again today, [23:59] there's no date yet set for this [24:00] meeting, but it's supposed to be in the [24:01] coming weeks. Zaidi, this new Prime [24:04] Minister of Iraq, is supposed to go to [24:05] the White House for a meeting with [24:06] Trump. [24:08] So, Baghdad now has a real concrete [24:10] picture of what they will get if they [24:13] can manage to comply with American [24:16] demands and exert their sovereignty and [24:19] get rid of the Iranian the pro-Iranian [24:21] militias and actually become a sovereign [24:23] nation. [24:25] They're going to get Western investment, [24:26] they're going to get American companies, [24:28] they're going to get a functioning [24:28] economy, [24:30] and they're going to be in the American [24:32] orbit. [24:35] Okay? Now, let's zoom out. [24:38] And let's go back to that map from the [24:40] beginning. [24:42] All right, let's go back to that map. [24:44] Right? Here's Iraq, here's Syria, here's [24:48] Lebanon. [24:49] And we know what's going on in Lebanon, [24:50] right? We have talked a lot these days [24:53] about what's going on in Lebanon. [24:56] The it's the exact posture the the exact [24:58] same posture from Washington in Lebanon [25:02] is playing out in Iraq. Now, the players [25:04] aren't identical, [25:05] but it's the same thing. What is it What [25:07] is Washington doing in Lebanon? They're [25:09] pressuring the local government to [25:11] disarm Hezbollah and finally assert real [25:14] sovereignty after decades of answering [25:16] to Tehran. [25:19] Just like Iraq. It's a different [25:20] country, there's different militias, but [25:22] it's the same American strategy. [25:25] It's the same American strategy. What is [25:27] America [25:28] Excuse me, what is America trying to [25:29] accomplish? [25:31] These are not two unrelated headaches, [25:34] Lebanon and Iraq. [25:36] Putting out fires, whack-a-mole. That's [25:38] not what it is. [25:39] This is the deliberate American policy. [25:42] Remember that the American demand of [25:45] Lebanon [25:47] to disarm Hezbollah, to make a [25:49] commitment to disarm Hezbollah goes also [25:51] back to the beginning of 2025. That's [25:53] when the new Lebanese government made [25:55] that commitment that they would disarm [25:57] by the end of the year. This is not [25:58] about the current Iran war. [26:01] Meaning the demand to disarm the Iraqi [26:04] militias and the demand to disarm [26:05] Hezbollah in Lebanon come at the same [26:07] time from the White House. [26:09] And now they're pursuing these things. [26:11] So, we have what's happened in Lebanon [26:12] over the last few weeks with the new [26:13] deal with Israel [26:16] and Lebanon fighting for its sovereignty [26:17] and telling you know, telling the you [26:19] know, the Iranians that you it's none of [26:21] your business. [26:22] They're trying to do the same playbook [26:23] in Iraq. [26:25] And there's actually a real method to [26:26] this if you think about what the [26:27] Americans are trying to accomplish. [26:30] This is one deliberate policy applied to [26:34] to the to both ends of Iran's reach [26:36] across the region. [26:38] They want to weaken and dismantle Iran's [26:41] axis, its regional axis piece by piece. [26:44] Lebanon, Iraq, [26:47] even while the bigger question, whether [26:50] whether the regime in Tehran actually [26:52] falls, that's a separate question. [26:55] But even if it was what they're what the [26:57] Americans are doing is even if the if [26:59] the regime in Tehran somehow survives in [27:01] a crippled form, [27:03] they want to dismantle the entire [27:06] network, the axis of of of Iran's power [27:10] across the region. [27:12] So, they want and and the the strategy [27:14] they're using, I'm not saying it's the [27:16] best strategy. [27:17] I'm not saying it's going to work. I'm [27:19] just telling you what they're doing. [27:20] What they're doing is they're trying to [27:22] get these countries, Lebanon and Iraq, [27:24] that are completely dysfunctional to [27:26] take their sovereignty. [27:28] They want They're giving them all sorts [27:29] of incentives, and they want them to [27:31] come into the American orbit so that in [27:33] this Middle East that is when the dust [27:35] settles on all of these conflicts that [27:37] started on October 7th, [27:39] 2023, when the dust settles and there's [27:41] a new Middle East and Iran is no longer [27:43] a power player. If the regime falls, [27:45] that's the best way to do it. But in [27:47] whatever Middle East emerges, they're [27:48] basically looking at these countries and [27:50] saying, "Which side are you on? Who are [27:53] you with? [27:55] Are you with the jihadists, or are you [27:57] with the American axis? [28:00] That's what they're doing here. [28:03] Right, Iraq is at a fork in the road. [28:05] Either it achieves what it has never [28:07] had, [28:09] well, since Saddam Hussein, you could [28:10] say that was sovereignty, which is a [28:11] state monopoly on the use of force, [28:13] right? That's That's a That's an [28:15] essential component of sovereignty. [28:18] Or it continues to be a government on [28:20] paper with armed factions loyal to [28:22] foreign powers operating within it. Now, [28:25] Iraq has only had any measure of [28:26] stability because the Americans have [28:28] been there. [28:29] But the Americans don't want to be [28:30] there. [28:34] So, let's think about what what all [28:35] these outcomes, these potential [28:37] outcomes, mean given where Iraq sits on [28:40] the map. An Iraq that succeeds in [28:42] cutting in cutting off these these [28:45] Iranian-backed militias, [28:47] it's not just a domestic Iraqi win. It [28:50] closes off Iran's land corridor. For [28:53] years Iran used Iraq as the connective [28:56] tissue of its entire regional network [28:58] because of everyone that it borders [29:00] with. [29:01] The route that links Tehran through to [29:03] its allies in Syria and Lebanon, [29:06] it runs through Iraq. [29:09] If you sever that and you pair it with a [29:11] Lebanon that disarms Hezbollah, [29:14] then you cut off both ends of the bridge [29:17] that Iran has relied on for its entire [29:19] regional strategy. [29:22] You're dismantling that corridor. [29:25] That's a fundamentally different Middle [29:27] East. [29:29] It's a Gulf facing US aligned [29:33] Middle East doing business with Chevron [29:35] and hosting Starlink sitting right on [29:37] Iran's western border [29:40] where Iraq is instead of serving as as [29:43] an extension of the Iranian regime. [29:46] The alternative if they don't go the US [29:48] route, [29:50] right? Is the is the Iraq and the [29:53] Lebanon that we already know, which is [29:55] which are governments that exist on [29:56] paper where the real power is in Tehran [29:59] and in these and these terrorist [30:00] militias. [30:02] And in that version both countries stay [30:04] exactly what they've been for years, [30:06] which are these chaotic places that are [30:08] constantly just staging grounds for [30:10] whatever games Iran wants to play in its [30:12] fight against Israel and the US. [30:16] And it's right in the middle of the [30:17] region's most important crossroads and [30:19] it means that there's still, you know, [30:20] all the weapons going across and all the [30:23] all the problems that that go with that. [30:25] So, that's what's at stake here. It's [30:26] not just whether one country, Iraq, gets [30:29] its act together. Iraq is not a [30:30] backwater. It's the center of [30:32] everything. [30:33] Um [30:35] anyway. [30:36] So, September 30th, we're going to watch [30:37] that date. [30:39] Um whatever Uh, we'll we'll [30:41] we'll see if Iraq can accomplish [30:42] anything [30:44] by then in the disarming of these [30:45] militias. Don't put your hopes up. [30:47] Uh, the similarities to Lebanon are [30:49] interesting. The difference here is that [30:50] Iraq is actually Shiite majority [30:52] country. [30:55] And, um, there's a very strong alignment [30:57] of the population with with the Iranian [30:59] regime, which is a little different than [31:01] in Lebanon, where you have a Shiite [31:03] minority, a very powerful one, but it's [31:05] a minority. So, this that's also that's [31:06] very different. But, uh, the next few [31:09] weeks and months will tell us a lot [31:10] about where Iraq is going. We're going [31:12] to we'll come back to this story [31:14] as it, uh, as it is relevant. All right. [31:18] God bless.
