Transcript [00:00] What were the Iranians trying to [00:02] accomplish by attacking Israel with [00:04] ballistic missiles over the last 24 [00:06] hours? That is what we're going to talk [00:08] about in this video. And there isn't [00:10] going to be a single answer to this. Uh [00:13] because I believe that they were trying [00:16] to accomplish multiple things at the [00:18] same time, which is very smart. They're [00:19] very shrewd about that. They will often [00:21] choose to make a move on the chess [00:24] board, and they invented chess. [00:27] They will often choose to make a move on [00:29] the chessboard when they see that it has [00:31] multiple benefits simultaneously and [00:33] this I believe is one of them. So, we're [00:36] going to go through what I believe they [00:38] were trying to accomplish and we're [00:39] going to make use of Iranian state media [00:42] where they're really putting out their [00:44] messaging. If you're new to this [00:45] channel, we go through a lot of Iranian [00:46] state media on this channel, not because [00:48] we take it at face value, not because we [00:50] believe what they're saying, but because [00:52] it is useful, because it is state media. [00:55] It is them telling us what their [00:57] preferred messaging is, what their [00:59] framing is. They are they reveal a lot [01:02] in state media, totalitarian state [01:04] media, media from countries where [01:06] there's no freedom of the press is very [01:08] useful to get into the heads of the [01:10] people who run that that country, but [01:12] you have to just read it critically. So [01:14] that's what we're going to do here. So [01:16] the first thing that they were trying to [01:17] accomplish, I believe, is some pressure [01:21] on President Trump. And it's very clever [01:24] pressure. Let me show you what I mean by [01:26] that. So, here are a few stories from [01:29] the last day. This is from a few hours [01:31] ago. Behind the scenes of the dawn [01:34] attack, the Trump Netanyahu deception. [01:38] Okay, what does it say here? Ahead of [01:40] the early morning air strikes on Iran, a [01:42] coordinated wave of media reports was [01:44] funneled into the news cycle with a [01:46] singular objective, convincing the [01:48] public that the military operation had [01:51] been called off. The narrative relied on [01:53] claims ranging from Donald Trump's [01:56] absolute opposition underscored by his [01:58] assertions that he remains the sole [02:00] decision maker to Israeli media reports [02:03] suggesting Benjamin Netanyahu had agreed [02:05] to postpone or reconsider a military [02:08] response. Piece by piece, this media [02:10] puzzle was assembled to project an [02:13] illusion of a deep diplomatic rift [02:15] between Washington and Tel Aviv, [02:17] signaling that the immediate threat had [02:19] passed. However, subsequent developments [02:21] have exposed this narrative as a major [02:24] tactical deception. The dawn strikes [02:27] executed by the Israeli regime, that's [02:29] this morning, across various sectors in [02:32] Iran demonstrated that the previous [02:34] night's reports were part of a [02:36] coordinated psychological operation [02:38] designed to lower Iran's defensive [02:40] posture and clear the path for a [02:42] surprise attack. Analysts describe it as [02:45] a classic good cop bad cop maneuver [02:48] where Trump assumed the diplomatic role [02:50] while Netanyahu executed the military [02:52] strike under the cover of media [02:53] distraction. Furthermore, the escalation [02:56] has exposed the miscalculations of [02:59] reformist media outlets and aligned [03:01] factions that consistently attempted to [03:03] promote the idea of a strategic division [03:06] between the United States and Israel. [03:08] Critics argue that these domestic [03:10] outlets not only fell victim to the [03:12] psychological warfare, but also actively [03:15] assisted it by amplifying the reports, [03:17] creating a false sense of security [03:19] within the public sphere. Ultimately, [03:22] the morning's military actions [03:23] underscore a broader consensus among [03:25] regional observers. Washington and Tel [03:28] Aviv remain completely aligned in their [03:30] strategic posture toward Tehran, [03:32] operating as two sides of the same coin. [03:35] Fascinating. [03:37] We see in media that Trump is calling [03:39] out BB saying, "Call off the attacks." [03:43] Trump seems to be frustrated. The [03:45] Israelis [03:47] getting reigned in by the Americans. And [03:49] what they're their read on this is that [03:51] it's all deception and that Trump and [03:54] Netanyahu are fully aligned and that the [03:57] only way that Israel would have attacked [03:58] is if America gave the green light and [04:00] and you know, or even coordinated with [04:03] them. [04:05] And there's people on our side who say [04:06] the same thing very interestingly. But [04:08] what are they getting at? What is why is [04:09] it in their interest to say that the [04:12] Americans and Israelis were totally [04:13] aligned and that America was basically [04:15] behind these attacks? [04:18] You see, they want to put greater [04:20] pressure on Trump. They know that Trump [04:22] has been pressuring Netanyahu to [04:24] deescalate in Lebanon and to not attack [04:27] there. [04:28] and they [04:31] and they know that Trump doesn't really [04:33] want to go back to kinetic action and [04:35] that Trump is trying to make a deal with [04:37] them. He's trying to get them to come to [04:38] the table and they want to say to Trump, [04:40] "We don't trust you. We don't trust you. [04:42] We don't trust you." Because they want [04:44] Trump to then give them a concession or [04:46] to come towards them and and want to [04:48] show that he can be trusted so that he [04:50] can make a deal that there'll be some [04:52] sort of concession. It gives them more [04:54] leverage if they can say to Trump, [04:55] "You're not negotiating in good faith. [04:58] So they have an interest in saying that [05:01] these attacks on Iran that took place in [05:03] the last 24 hours that Trump was behind [05:05] them because it puts more pressure on [05:07] him to show that really he can be [05:10] trusted and to show that you know and to [05:12] maybe take some step that will regain [05:16] their confidence. That's I think the way [05:17] they're playing it because this came up [05:18] a few times today. This is this is also [05:21] from today from just two hours after the [05:23] previous story. Trump claims Israel and [05:26] Iran seek ceasefire. Trump claims Israel [05:29] and Iran seek ceasefire. US President [05:30] Donald Trump claimed on Monday that both [05:32] the Israeli regime and the Islamic [05:34] Republic of Iran are seeking an [05:35] immediate sessation of military [05:37] hostilities while simultaneously warning [05:39] that ongoing peace talks remain [05:40] vulnerable to diplomatic disruptions. [05:43] The US president who had previously [05:45] called on Thran and Tel Aviv to halt [05:47] their exchange of fire stated on his [05:49] official truth social platform that both [05:51] sides were looking for an immediate [05:53] ceasefire. He cautioned, however, that [05:55] the final peace negotiations currently [05:57] underway could still be obstructed by [06:00] ignorance or folly. Emphasizing the need [06:02] for rapid progress in the diplomatic [06:04] process, the American president asserted [06:06] that the current blockade against Iran [06:08] would remain fully enforced with maximum [06:11] power and strength until a definitive [06:13] final agreement is successfully reached. [06:16] The remarks come amid widespread [06:18] assertions. This is this is it. This is [06:20] the money. This is the money quote. The [06:22] remarks come amid widespread assertions [06:25] from Israeli media outlets indicating [06:27] that recent military strikes against [06:29] Iranian targets and the subsequent [06:31] violations of the temporary truce were [06:33] executed with the explicit coordination [06:36] and approval of the United States [06:38] administration. [06:40] You see, so this is all that Trump is [06:42] claiming that Israel and Iran seek a [06:44] ceasefire, but really the attacks came [06:49] with his approval. [06:52] Okay, meaning he's not negotiating in [06:54] good faith. You see that? There you go. [06:56] They throw that in there and then it [06:59] shows up again. [07:01] Informed source. Further attacks may [07:03] trigger energy strikes. This is also [07:05] from today. [07:07] An informed military source has warned [07:09] that if attacks on Iran's energy [07:11] infrastructure continue, all oil, gas, [07:13] and petrochemical facilities linked to [07:15] Israel, the United States, and their [07:17] allies could become targets of Iran's [07:19] armed forces. Right. Any attack on their [07:22] energy sector will bring an attack on [07:24] energy sector of American allies. It uh [07:27] it says the warning comes after parts of [07:29] the Karun petrochemical complex in [07:31] Mashar were reportedly targeted in an [07:34] attack. We'll get to that in a moment. [07:36] The source emphasized that continued [07:37] attacks on energy infrastructure could [07:39] lead to a broader confrontation [07:41] affecting strategic oil, gas, and [07:43] petrochemical assets across the region. [07:45] Now, look at this. [07:47] This is an article about what we've read [07:50] so far that attacks on Iranian [07:53] prochemical assets are going to lead to [07:55] attacks on energy assets in the region. [07:57] But then what does it end with? [07:58] Meanwhile, an Israeli media outlet [08:00] reported that Israel's recent attack on [08:02] Iran was carried out in coordination [08:04] with the United States. A claim that if [08:07] confirmed could further escalate [08:09] tensions between the two sides. They [08:11] just threw that in at the end of this [08:12] piece. It seemingly had nothing to do [08:14] with it. They are putting this into [08:17] every news item about these attacks [08:21] that really it's the Trump Netanyahu [08:24] deception that really they're fully [08:27] coordinated. Now about what what the [08:28] Israelis hit what Karun Petrochemical [08:31] produces and why it matters. So Karun [08:33] Petrochemical is a massive complex in [08:36] southwest Iran that was hit by the [08:38] Israelis and it produces all sorts of [08:40] petrochemical products and plastics and [08:42] things like that. But it says right here [08:45] that [08:48] um according to US Treasury PGPIC that's [08:52] the place that was hit the Persian Gulf [08:54] petrochemical industries company [08:56] subsidiaries worked with Katana Alambia [08:59] through engineering construction and [09:01] financing contracts worth hundreds of [09:02] millions of dollars. Katabalia is the [09:06] construction arm of the IRGC [09:09] of the Iranian regime. Washington said [09:12] that revenue from prochemical sector [09:14] provided an important source of funding [09:15] for the IRGC's military activities but [09:18] also petrochemical facilities are [09:20] primarily civilian enterprises but some [09:23] of their products can have military [09:24] applications chemical compounds produced [09:27] in the Mashar and in Mashar and other [09:29] prochemical centers can be used as a [09:32] precur as precursor materials in the [09:34] production of propellants and other [09:36] components associated with the missile [09:40] program. Okay, so that's what Israel [09:42] hit. Israel hit this prochemical site [09:44] that has dual use. It's has civilian [09:47] uses, but it's also used in the [09:49] production of their missiles. [09:51] And this is how Emirati media is [09:53] reporting this. U it it uh it just gives [09:56] us a synopsis of what happened here. And [09:59] then it says at the bottom, Trump urges [10:02] Iran and Israel to stop shooting. US [10:04] President Donald Trump has called on [10:06] them to stop shooting [10:08] and that he wants him to stop. Israel [10:10] halts strikes on Iran at Trump's [10:12] request, says senior official. Israel [10:15] has suspended strikes on Iran at the [10:17] request of US President Donald Trump. [10:19] According to a senior official quoted by [10:22] Channel 12, this happened just a few [10:23] hours ago. The official said Israel [10:26] would however continue military [10:28] operations in southern Lebanon at full [10:30] intensity in the coming days. The [10:33] official also warned that if attacks [10:35] byah on Israeli communities persist, [10:37] Israel will continue to strike Beirut's [10:39] southern suburbs, theah stronghold. In [10:42] other words, Israel saying, "Yeah, we're [10:44] not going to fire it around right now. [10:45] Trump asked us not to, but we're still [10:47] going whole hog after afterbalah and [10:50] Lebanon." [10:52] which makes one wonder if there's going [10:54] to be more missiles from Iran because [10:58] Iran [11:00] u was trying to like I said trying to [11:02] accomplish a number a number of [11:05] different things here. Let's take a look [11:06] at and then we're going to see what else [11:07] they were trying to accomplish. So the [11:08] the first thing I said they were trying [11:10] to accomplish is to put pressure on [11:12] Trump and basically say we don't believe [11:15] you that you weren't part of these [11:16] attacks and to use it as a way of of uh [11:20] and why does it pressure him? Because [11:23] they realized they they they came to the [11:26] realization over the last couple of [11:28] weeks that President Trump does not want [11:31] to go back to kinetic action that the [11:33] threats are empty that he is looking for [11:35] an off-ramp. They know how unpopular [11:37] military strikes are in America [11:39] domestically. They know that Trump is [11:41] looking for a way out of this. As soon [11:43] as they saw I I believe that as soon as [11:46] they saw that that Trump was kept [11:48] telling the Israelis not to strike [11:50] Beirut, not to strike Beirut and to [11:53] deescalate in Lebanon, they saw that as [11:56] an opening because they saw that Trump [11:58] is he's backing away from the from [12:01] military pressure on the regime. You'd [12:03] think that Trump would want Israel to [12:05] hammer Hezbollah because that would be [12:07] that would maintain the military [12:09] pressure and it would take away the time [12:12] advantage uh of the of the regime [12:14] because the regime believes the time is [12:16] on their side and they're correct [12:18] because they're not suffering with every [12:21] passing day. It's not getting worse for [12:23] them. Not enough at least because like [12:25] the blockade is not is not enough to [12:29] make them believe that time is is [12:31] working against them. But ifah is being [12:33] decimated day by day, then they feel [12:35] that they're losing their grip on [12:36] Lebanon. So one thing that that they [12:40] want to accomplish is basically poking [12:43] Trump and blaming him for this, blaming [12:47] him for the kinetic action, which will [12:50] force his hand because he's he's so [12:52] opposed to that at this point. It'll [12:54] force his hand to come down harder on [12:57] Netanyahu to not to not escalate but [13:01] also maybe induce him to some sort of [13:04] confidence building measure towards [13:06] them. I believe that that is the first [13:08] thing that they wanted to accomplish [13:09] here. Uh these are in no particular [13:11] order but that's the first one I'm [13:12] mentioning. Another thing they wanted to [13:14] accomplish here [13:16] um is [13:21] oh let me point this out again here u [13:23] before we move on to the next thing they [13:25] want to accomplish here's another story [13:26] this is also from today this is really [13:28] just from like an hour ago the Katamadan [13:30] via central headquarters of the Iranian [13:32] armed forces has announced it suspension [13:34] of current military operations right we [13:36] saw that in in the national uh that both [13:39] Israel and Iran have announced that [13:40] they've halted [13:42] following what is described as a severe [13:44] retalatory response against the Israeli [13:45] regime. According to the official [13:47] statement, according to an official [13:48] statement, the latest military actions [13:50] by Iran's arms for armed forces were [13:52] executed in direct support of the [13:54] Lebanese population. [13:57] In direct support of the Lebanese [13:58] population, this is getting us into the [13:59] second thing they want to accomplish. [14:01] But it also includes this and in [14:04] response to ongoing military operations [14:06] by the Israeli regime in southern [14:07] Lebanon and the Dhaka district of [14:09] Beirut, which the headquarters meaning [14:12] Katamalania the headquarters stated were [14:15] carried out with the backing of the [14:16] United States. Again, they're including [14:18] this accusation in every news item about [14:21] these attacks that the Americans were [14:23] behind it. The Americans were behind it. [14:24] The Americans were behind it. But what [14:26] do they say here? They say that they [14:27] that they that they wanted to come to [14:31] the support of the Lebanese population. [14:35] So, we have this story from a few hours [14:37] ago changing the equation. Iran's [14:39] messages of decisive support for [14:41] Lebanon. What's lovely about this piece [14:43] is that it's not even a news item. It's [14:45] just saying what is Iran's message of [14:49] support for Lebanon. It's saying this is [14:51] our motive in doing this. Okay, look [14:53] what it says here. Only a few hours [14:54] after the Israeli attack in the southern [14:56] Dhaka of Beirut under the pretext of [14:59] coordination with the United States, [15:00] they throw it in again. Residents of [15:03] various regions in Lebanon, including [15:05] Beirut, Kal, and Sidon, broadcast videos [15:09] of Iranian missiles crossing the [15:11] Lebanese skies toward the occupied [15:13] territories. About an hour before the [15:15] attack, many residents of southern [15:16] Lebanon and the southern suburbs of [15:18] Beirut in conversations with local [15:20] reporters had expressed anticipation of [15:22] an imminent Iranian response. [15:24] Concurrently, Israeli media reported [15:26] that the extensive reported the [15:28] extensive deployment of defense systems [15:30] in uh in in northern Israel. [15:35] And now it goes into what they're [15:37] accomplishing with the attack. Timing of [15:39] the attack, a short deadline for [15:41] surprise or a show of force. The attack [15:44] in the early hours of the night and only [15:46] a few hours after the Israeli aggression [15:48] against the Dhaka. They're stressing [15:50] that it's only a few hours after the [15:51] Israelis struck the Dhaka contained two [15:53] strategic messages. The Dhaka is the [15:56] neighborhood in Beirut. First, Iran's [15:58] response is immediate and decisive and [16:00] Israel must not count on a delay to [16:02] prepare its defenses. Second, the timing [16:05] showed the public opinion in Lebanon and [16:08] the region that Tehran does not waste [16:10] opportunities and implements its promise [16:13] of crushing response without wasting [16:15] time. The approach, this approach [16:17] indicates a shift in Iran's doctrine [16:19] toward immediate response. Then it says [16:21] field coordination withbalah that they [16:24] were totally coordinated between Iran [16:26] and excitement in Dakia high [16:29] coordination within the axis of [16:31] resistance. Reports from local users [16:34] regarding the anticipation and [16:36] excitement among the people of southern [16:37] Lebanon and Dhaka demonstrate the high [16:40] level of coordination and the deterrent [16:42] capability of the axis of resistance. [16:45] While Western media insinuated that the [16:47] Lebanese Shiite community had been left [16:50] alone in the face of Israeli air strikes [16:52] and American green lights and that there [16:55] was no decisive response from the axis [16:57] of resistance against the aggression, [16:59] Iran's missile attack and the field [17:01] coordination withaha sent a clear [17:04] message. Is not alone and Iran stands [17:07] behind it. Then it talks about how it [17:10] showed how Israel's air defenses are [17:12] insufficient. And finally, the equation [17:15] of every aggression and immediate [17:16] response, meaning that they're they're [17:18] establishing deterrence, which I don't [17:19] think they believe they're establishing [17:21] deterrence because [17:24] deterrence with Israel is very simple. [17:26] If you don't fire at us, we're not going [17:27] to shoot you. Um, and they know that. [17:31] What do they what's the message here? [17:33] First of all, you see again that they [17:35] mention multiple times in this piece [17:36] that the Americans were behind this. The [17:38] Americans were behind this. So that's [17:39] that's obvious to me like that's a when [17:42] you start seeing a pattern like that in [17:43] all the news stories in a single day, [17:45] you realize that that's they're pushing [17:46] this message. They're pushing it into [17:48] every story. But what else do we have [17:50] here? that the Lebanese people were [17:52] excited about these missile attacks and [17:54] were anticipating them and were looking [17:56] forward to them and were sharing videos [17:58] of them and and and you see here that [18:01] the that it was only a few hours after [18:03] the Dhaka and Beirut was attacked that [18:05] the Iranians did this to show you how [18:07] rapid the response was because Iran is [18:09] coming to the aid of Lebanon. Iran is [18:12] the protector of Lebanon. Iran is, you [18:15] know, still has a big Shiite backing in [18:18] Lebanon. What is this about? So, this is [18:21] a major reason they did this attack. A [18:23] major reason. And it has everything to [18:26] do with what's been happening in Lebanon [18:27] the last few days. There was an [18:29] interview on CNN two days ago with [18:31] Christian Amanpur and the president of [18:34] Lebanon, Joseph Aun where he was talking [18:36] about how is a foreign entity and we [18:39] have to get rid of them. And he was [18:40] speaking in harsher terms about [18:43] he has than he has ever spoken in. [18:45] Lebanese leaders are getting more and [18:46] more bold about talking about howbala [18:49] has to be has to be removed from Lebanon [18:51] and how they're and and and how [18:52] problematic they are. Public opinion is [18:55] turning harder and harder against [18:58] in Lebanon. And the Iranians want to [19:01] destroy the chances of a sessation of [19:05] hostilities. They want to destroy the [19:07] chances of a peace deal between Lebanon [19:09] and Israel and the sidelining ofah, the [19:12] potential even acquiescence to Israel [19:15] fightingah. [19:16] They're trying to mess up the whole [19:18] possibility for peace in Lebanon. It's a [19:20] very it's a very high priority for them. [19:23] They need to remain so that they can [19:25] continue to have a foothold in Lebanon. [19:27] It's one of the most important assets [19:30] and they're afraid of losing it. So [19:32] they're so part of their attack here was [19:35] to project to the Shiite community in [19:38] Lebanon to regain popularity among the [19:40] Shiite community in southern Lebanon [19:42] that they're still here that they're [19:44] still flexing their muscles. That's what [19:45] these people respect. They say, "Oh, [19:46] here's the Iranians. They're coming in [19:48] to our aid. We're getting bombed by [19:49] Israel. They're fighting back on our [19:51] behalf." [19:52] also looks stronger because it looked [19:54] like was on their own and that maybe the [19:56] Iranians had kind of uh you know [19:59] abandoned them or didn't have the [20:01] strength to stand behind them and now [20:02] they're showing strength that they're [20:03] still behind. This makesah look more [20:06] solid and more strong domestically. [20:09] So that's another thing that they're [20:10] accomplishing with these attacks. So [20:13] multiple accomplishments at once putting [20:14] pressure on President Trump and pointing [20:17] a finger at him saying this is your [20:18] fault. You're behind this and therefore [20:20] we don't trust you. that that you know [20:22] from a western negotiating perspective [20:24] that puts pressure on Trump. And the [20:27] second thing they want to accomplish is [20:28] they want to disrupt the potential for [20:30] peace in Lebanon and reassert their [20:33] support forbala and regain their their [20:36] shrinking popularity even in the Shiite [20:39] community in South Lebanon. [20:43] And finally, we have this piece also [20:45] from today, Iran's response, the [20:47] beginning of the collapse of artificial [20:49] borders. And what this focuses on is [20:52] what were they trying to Here here they [20:54] say that they were that this operation [20:56] of attacking Israel accomplished uh four [21:00] things. [21:02] Okay, it first of all it was [21:04] unpredictability that no one saw it [21:06] coming and they and they showed how [21:07] unpredictable they can be. Okay. Number [21:09] two, eradicating false geographical [21:11] borders and consolidating unity of [21:13] fronts. basically that the that the [21:16] Iranian proxies throughout the region [21:18] and they list the Dakia that's Beirut, [21:20] Gaza, Sana which is that's Yemen, [21:24] Baghdad, that's Iraq and Iran are not [21:27] separate files. Any attempt to segment [21:30] the battlefields and isolate a single [21:31] front will face defeat. In other words, [21:33] we are asserting that we are still in [21:36] control of our proxy network, that we [21:39] are still a player. We're flexing our [21:40] muscles. We are still we still have a [21:43] proxy network across the Middle East. [21:45] They list the five cities, Dakia, Gaza, [21:47] Sana, Baghdad, and Thran. That's the [21:50] five uh uh epicenters as it were, [21:54] centers of the of the axis of [21:56] resistance, the proxy network. That's [21:57] Hamas, Houthis, [22:01] um Shiite proxies in Iraq and and [22:06] Tehran. And that they're all together. [22:08] They're f they're saying that our [22:09] international our network is still [22:11] intact because it's looked over the last [22:14] few months a lot like these proxies are [22:15] kind of on their own. So this attack was [22:18] was was uh was an was an important way [22:21] of Iran saying we are still here. Uh and [22:25] then the speed and decision and [22:27] execution again they want to show that [22:29] they're being responsive [22:32] and establishing equations which by that [22:34] they mean establishing deterrence. These [22:36] are what they say that their goals are. [22:38] Uh so so let me sum this up and we'll [22:42] end the video. What were they trying to [22:44] accomplish with these attacks? They're [22:45] trying to put pressure on Trump because [22:47] they know Trump wants deescalation. They [22:49] know Trump wants a sessation of [22:51] hostilities. So that's the best time to [22:54] carry out an attack and escalate things [22:56] and draw the Israelis into further [22:57] escalation, create more friction between [22:59] the US and Israel, but also blame [23:01] America at the same time. And that puts [23:03] pressure on the Americans. uh number two [23:07] um regain some of their popularity in [23:10] Lebanon and assert that they're still [23:12] players in the Lebanon situation and [23:13] that they're not going away so easy and [23:16] um and and push back on these attempts [23:18] by the Lebanese government to [23:19] marginalize them and push and [23:21] marginalize and reach peace with Israel. [23:24] And finally, they want to reassert that [23:27] they still are regional players. It's [23:30] similar to the to number two, but it's [23:32] less about Lebanon particularly, but [23:34] asserting that they still are in control [23:36] of their proxy network, still supportive [23:38] of their proxy network, that it's all [23:40] one front. All right, that's how I [23:43] understand what Iran was trying to [23:45] accomplish with their attacks on Israel. [23:48] I hope it made some sense. God bless you
