Transcript [00:00] Uh, did the Persians succeed in what [00:02] they always try to succeed in? Let's get [00:03] the next meeting and let's have a [00:05] different location and we'll have a four [00:06] or five day gap and we'll just continue [00:09] this and and hopefully President Trump [00:11] one day will go away. [00:13] That is the goal. Look, especially [00:15] because the whole premise for the for [00:19] American action now, like you know, if [00:21] you ask yourself like you know what's so [00:24] excuse me, what's so pressing, it has to [00:27] do with what happened with those [00:28] protests. the further we get from the [00:30] protests, the less credible American [00:33] military action is. So yeah, there, you [00:36] know, the longer the negotiations take, [00:39] you know, the better it is for the [00:41] Persians. That's what they want out of [00:42] this at this point. [00:44] >> What do you mean? But you're not saying [00:46] that our military action would be [00:48] contingent upon we Scott Besson crush [00:50] crushed their currency. Economic warfare [00:53] did that and then they came out. I guess [00:55] you're saying when the president said uh [00:57] we'll have your back or something. Is is [00:59] that the contingent help is on the way [01:01] was the military commitment. [01:04] >> Look, you know, he painted himself into [01:06] a corner. I said this last time I was on [01:07] your show last week that the the wisdom [01:11] of saying help is on the way is [01:13] questionable. But the problem is that [01:16] once Trump said that uh the the Iranian [01:19] people saw that America had their back. [01:21] Undoubtedly, undoubtedly more Iranians [01:24] were killed in the street by the regime [01:26] because Trump said that. And uh that's [01:29] something that you know and and now [01:31] whether you like it or not, the way [01:32] things work in the Middle East, you [01:34] know, saving face and having honor, [01:36] these are all things that are very [01:37] important to the politics. And if if [01:40] America in the end does not come to the [01:42] aid of the Iranian people in the way [01:44] that people pictured, it will be [01:46] perceived, again, I'm not saying this is [01:48] in America's best interest to do it, but [01:50] it will be perceived as weakness on the [01:52] part of Donald Trump. So, you know, [01:54] that's part of the calculation. It's [01:55] unfortunate that that's part of the [01:57] calculation, but that's where we are, [01:58] Steve. You know, I want to be very [02:00] clear. Uh, you know, while in Israel, we [02:02] are all in favor of this regime that has [02:04] been trying to destroy us and investing [02:06] all of its resources to destroy us. We'd [02:08] love to see it fall, that doesn't mean [02:10] that uh, you know, everyone is looking [02:13] forward to a war or even want strikes on [02:15] Iran. I don't think, you know, I I'm [02:17] doubtful as to whether military strikes [02:19] are the way to bring down the regime [02:20] altogether. [02:22] >> U, I'm going to get to that in a second. [02:23] Uh, President Trump is pretty admit the [02:25] State of the Union. He wants peace. He [02:27] wants a deal, but it's got to be a deal [02:29] that has no possibility of nuclear [02:31] weapons and something that's enforcable. [02:33] You've been pretty articulate about and [02:36] and and also Netanyahu and others that [02:39] you can't trust these guys. Anything you [02:41] do is just on a piece of paper. They're [02:42] going to sign anything they want to to [02:44] to to get through the Trump years and [02:47] then they're in power forever because [02:48] there'll never be a Democrat that would [02:50] follow that would take action here to to [02:52] actually uh do regime change or [02:54] eradicate them. Is that the line of [02:56] thinking basically the consensus [02:58] thinking in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv? [03:01] >> Oh, for sure. the the regime the [03:03] regime's sole goal their sole definition [03:06] of success here I'm not going to call it [03:08] victory but their sole definition of [03:09] success is surviving the Trump [03:12] administration because so long as they [03:14] can sell their oil to the Chinese [03:15] Communist Party which they still are [03:17] doing uh so long as they can do that [03:20] they still have cash flow and as so long [03:22] as they survive the Trump presidency [03:24] they know that whatever comes next is [03:26] going to be probably more favorable to [03:27] them and then all bets are off they can [03:30] continue along ong their merry way. And [03:33] you know, you saw it after the 12- day [03:35] war. While from from an American [03:37] perspective, uh that looked like a [03:39] victory for the United States, for for [03:41] the West, for Israel, whatever you want [03:43] to say, by destroying the Iranian [03:44] nuclear facilities, but they interpreted [03:46] as victory because the regime was still [03:48] standing. They these guys don't think in [03:50] terms of election cycles. They think [03:52] very, very long term. And their goal is [03:54] to survive the Trump presidency. And I [03:56] believe, and I laid this out in my most [03:57] recent column in the Jerusalem Post, we [03:59] talked about it, Steve, that the Iranian [04:01] regime's calculation is very [04:03] straightforward. [04:05] They believe that they have a greater [04:07] chance of the regime falling by [04:10] capitulating to the demands of the of [04:14] the of the Trump administration as [04:15] originally laid out, which were four [04:17] demands. They were uh they were the [04:20] dismantling the nuclear. They were [04:22] curtailing the ballistic missiles, [04:25] stopping the funding of the proxies and [04:27] not u you know persecuting and murdering [04:31] their own people anymore. Those were the [04:32] four things that Marco Rubio laid out. [04:34] President Trump also referred to them. [04:35] They believe the Iranian regime believes [04:37] that if they capitulate to the American [04:39] demands, they they stand a stronger [04:42] chance of the regime falling because of [04:45] uh the weakness that it would project to [04:47] their own people. They fear their own [04:48] people way more than they fear military [04:50] strikes by the United States. And they [04:52] think that they can survive, the regime [04:54] can survive with lots of damage from US [04:56] military strikes, especially considering [04:58] the fact that they're going to unload [05:00] their missiles at US targets. They've [05:02] never done that before. You know, after [05:03] the 12-day war, they did a kind of [05:05] symbolic retaliation, if you remember, [05:07] Takatar, and they didn't kill anybody. [05:09] Same thing after Sulammani was killed. [05:11] They warned the Americans in advance and [05:13] and hit some empty buildings. That's not [05:15] going to be the case this time. and [05:16] those American assets all over the [05:18] Middle East, the Iranians are going to [05:19] be firing in all directions if they fear [05:21] that the regime is under attack. And if [05:23] they kill any Americans at all, we know [05:26] that it will be uh you know, Trump is [05:29] going to want to get out of there real [05:30] fast. So, I think the Iranian regime [05:31] looks at their options and they say, you [05:33] know what, going to war is we have a [05:36] better chance of the regime surviving [05:37] than capitulating to the US demands. So, [05:41] they'll try to delay things as much as [05:42] possible and give the Americans less and [05:44] less of a of a justification politically [05:46] for attacking. Um, but in the end of the [05:49] day, they'd prefer those attacks to [05:51] capitulating to the US demands. That's [05:53] how I see it. And that everything that's [05:54] happened is only confirm my thesis. [05:56] >> By the way, I think I I can't believe [05:58] this and only can happen in the war [06:00] room. I think you and Par Yeah, the [06:02] treats and pesky agree. It's kind of [06:04] crazy, isn't it? [06:05] >> He just said when he left her, he says, [06:07] "Hey, look." [06:08] >> Oh, no. I I was thinking the same thing. [06:10] I heard him say it and I was like I [06:11] cannot believe that I agree with treats [06:13] >> only on war. [06:15] >> But you're only you're saying treat just [06:17] said hey if it comes down to accepting [06:19] these four and he was very specific [06:20] about the ballistic missiles versus [06:22] giving up the nuclear program. He says I [06:25] think they'll take their shot at [06:26] militarily because as bad as it can get [06:28] at least they figure they might be able [06:29] to hang on if they capitulate. For sure. [06:31] Listen, if the goal is regime survival, [06:34] capitulation to the US demands, look [06:37] again, [06:38] >> it's very simple. Let's let's lay out [06:40] the logic for the war room for the posi. [06:42] The only force that can bring down the [06:44] Iranian regime is the Iranian people. So [06:47] any calculation about what is the right [06:49] move by the Iranian regime is what will [06:52] or will not empower the Iranian people. [06:55] Capitulation to the US demands empowers [06:58] the Iranian people more than US military [07:01] strikes on any target you want. The [07:03] Iranian regime is not the Syrian Assad [07:06] regime. It's not it's not Gaddafi in [07:09] Libya. It's not Saddam Hussein in Iraq [07:11] where you have just one little family [07:13] that's kind of a mafia family and that [07:15] and Assad gets on a plane and flies to [07:18] Russia. The Syrian regime is over. It [07:21] doesn't work that way in Iran. The [07:22] Iranian regime is much more like the [07:24] Chinese Communist Party. It's a massive [07:26] elite that leads the country. There's [07:28] about 180,000 members of the IRGC. You [07:31] have their families. You're talking [07:32] about half a million people, a [07:33] multi-layered bureaucracy. They know [07:36] that they could survive military attacks [07:38] and still suppress unrest. And if they [07:40] just cause a few casualties to the [07:42] Americans and make it last a little too [07:44] long, Trump does not want a prolonged [07:47] situation. He certainly does not want to [07:49] absorb any any casualties. and they [07:51] believe that they have a better chance [07:53] of the regime surviving if they go to [07:55] war than if they capitulate to the US [07:58] demands and that's why they're digging [07:59] in. [08:01] Um, President Trump has this great [08:04] phrase, if you're right, no games. [08:06] There's been all this media speculation [08:08] the last 24 hours there may be something [08:10] that the Israelis go and do a strike and [08:12] use it as a as some sort of cover for [08:14] the Americans to come in. Do you see [08:16] anything? Right now, you do agree there [08:18] is a focus on a diplomatic solution [08:21] while President Trump builds a vast [08:24] military apparatus essentially [08:26] surrounding the Persians. Any truth to [08:28] this rumor about any Israeli strike that [08:31] we use as a cover and then the Americans [08:33] come in later? Is that just media uh [08:35] speculation? [08:36] >> I saw that in Politico. Look, there's [08:38] you could you could, you know, get a [08:40] leak for every position you want to [08:42] take. It seems that everyone in the [08:44] administration who has an opinion is [08:46] leaking it and then someone's running [08:49] whether it's Axios or Politico and [08:51] saying oh there you know insiders say [08:52] this insiders say that Trump is a master [08:55] of unpredictability and I'm not going [08:58] I'm not going to say that that that [08:59] that's what's going to happen and look I [09:01] think that that the political story that [09:04] suggested that there are people in the [09:06] administration who want the Israelis to [09:07] strike first because then a retaliation [09:10] could come against the US assets and [09:12] that could drag America into it and [09:14] provide greater justification and the [09:15] American people will be behind that. And [09:17] I looked at that and I said, "That's [09:18] absurd." First of all, if that were to [09:20] happen, everyone in America would say, [09:22] as Steve Bannon probably would, "There's [09:24] Israel dragging us into another war." [09:26] And no one wants that. The Israelis [09:27] don't want that either. Um, no one wants [09:30] that. And and the second thing is in the [09:32] 12-day war, Iran did not retaliate at [09:36] all against any American assets. The [09:38] only strikes against American assets [09:40] were after the attacks on the nuclear [09:42] facilities, that symbolic strike against [09:44] assets in Qatar. So why would anyone [09:46] think that this strategy would work? [09:48] That you know, again, what was in [09:50] Politico today, just so everyone knows [09:51] what we're talking about, Politico had [09:52] this report that someone in the [09:54] administration says that the Americans [09:55] want the Israelis to attack first [09:57] because that will draw an attack on [09:59] American on American assets in the [10:01] Middle East, which will which will give [10:03] justification for America to strike. I [10:06] think it's ridiculous, Steve. Sorry. I [10:07] know it was in Politico. It makes no [10:09] sense to me strategically. [10:11] >> Rabbi, uh we're going to have you on [10:13] hopefully maybe to we can't tomorrow. [10:14] We'll have you on uh on Monday. I want [10:16] to talk about the meeting in Vienna and [10:18] also your thoughts about uh what advice [10:20] should you give the president right now. [10:21] Where do people get you? Your your [10:22] videos are amazing. Where do they go? [10:25] >> Thank you very much. You go to Israel [10:26] 365 News YouTube channel or I also have [10:29] a personal YouTube channel that I [10:30] started recently. That's my name Pesaf [10:32] Wiki uh on uh at uh on on YouTube. And [10:35] you can also check me out at Rabbi PWX. [10:40] Thanks, Steve. [10:41] >> And you have a brain analysis of the [10:43] Tucker uh Ambassador Huckabe interview. [10:46] I recommend everybody go watch Rab Rabbi [10:49] Wlei where he breaks that down. show [10:50] come.
