Transcript [00:00] Well, well, well, things are certainly [00:02] escalating in the Middle East, in the [00:05] Persian Gulf, in the Strait of Hormuz. [00:07] We all know what happened over the last [00:09] day or two. [00:10] There was an American helicopter that [00:12] was shot down. The United States [00:14] retaliated, and the Iranians then [00:16] retaliated. Now, here's what we're going [00:17] to do in this video. We're going to go [00:18] through the basics of what took place, [00:20] take a brief look at it on a map, and [00:22] understand what actually happened. [00:25] And then, we're going to deal with a [00:27] very specific question that I haven't [00:29] seen anyone discussing, which is, [00:32] why did Iran specifically target US [00:36] assets in Jordan, Bahrain, and Kuwait? [00:40] The United States has very significant [00:42] assets in the UAE, [00:44] and in Saudi Arabia, which are also [00:47] right there. They were also being [00:49] attacked by the Iranians throughout the [00:52] course of this war, even more so than [00:54] the countries that were just attacked, [00:56] these three countries. Why did Iran not [00:59] fire [01:00] at the US assets in the UAE, and in [01:03] Saudi Arabia? Why did they only choose [01:05] those three countries? That is the [01:07] question I want to deal with in this [01:09] video. So, stick around. We're going to [01:10] get to that question. [01:12] And yeah, let's start with the [01:13] headlines. Let's start with exactly what [01:15] took place, so we understand what we are [01:18] talking about. So, here we go. US [01:20] strikes Iran after Trump vows [01:22] retaliation for downing of US helicopter [01:25] over Hormuz. The US military carried out [01:27] strikes in Iran early Wednesday, [01:30] following the downing of an [01:32] Apache helicopter that US President [01:34] Donald Trump accused Iran of shooting [01:36] down, and vowed retaliation for casting [01:39] doubt on Trump's previous claims that [01:41] Washington and Tehran were on the verge [01:43] of reaching an agreement to permanently [01:45] end the fighting. [01:47] US Central Command described the [01:49] self-defense strikes against Iran [01:52] as a proportional response to [01:54] unjustified Iranian aggression. [01:56] CENTCOM later announced that it [01:58] completed the strikes saying they hit [01:59] Iranian air defense, ground control [02:01] stations, and surveillance radar sites [02:03] near the Strait of Hormuz. Now, I want [02:05] to talk about the word proportional [02:06] here. [02:08] The word proportional is often used in [02:10] discussions of military action. [02:12] And it's often used incorrectly. [02:15] According to international law, the [02:17] there's a whole section in the Geneva [02:19] Conventions [02:20] about proportionality in warfare and [02:23] the definition of proportionality [02:25] legally [02:27] is that what you are doing is [02:28] proportional to the specific military [02:32] objective of the action. It's not about [02:35] a tit-for-tat being equal. Like, you [02:38] punched me once, I punch you once. You [02:40] killed five of our people, we killed [02:42] five of yours. You caused a billion [02:43] dollars of damage, we're going to cause [02:45] a billion dollars of damage. That's not [02:47] proportionality. People use it all the [02:49] time incorrectly, especially when [02:50] talking about, let's say, Israel's [02:52] actions towards its enemies. And they [02:54] see that you know, like what happened on [02:55] October 7th and then what Israel does in [02:57] Gaza and they say, "Oh, it's [02:58] disproportionate." It That's it's a [03:00] misuse of the term proportional. [03:02] So, I'm not sure how they meant the the [03:05] word proportional here. It might just be [03:06] for PR purposes as a way of minimizing [03:09] what they're doing saying the [03:10] ceasefire's not really over. We're not [03:12] going back to all-out war. We're just [03:13] doing something [03:15] limited in the same way you took down an [03:17] Apache, so we're going to take down [03:19] something limited. That would be [03:21] not a technical use of proportional. Or [03:23] they could mean it very specifically [03:25] technically that you [03:28] made use of your air defenses and ground [03:31] control stations and surveillance radar [03:33] sites near the Strait of Hormuz [03:35] in in all of the nefarious activity that [03:38] you're doing there. So, our proportional [03:41] response to the downing of the Apache is [03:43] to take out those installations. [03:46] US forces remain vigilant and posture to [03:48] defend against unjustified Iranian [03:51] aggression. In response, [03:55] the IRGC said it attacked the US Fifth [03:57] Fleet in Bahrain with drones, warning of [03:59] a more severe response [04:02] if what it describes as US aggression [04:04] continues. It later announced additional [04:06] attacks on US bases in Kuwait and [04:07] Jordan. That's the three countries we [04:09] talked about. I have to understand why [04:11] those three specifically, with the [04:13] latter targeting F-35 fighter jet [04:15] hangers and a command and control [04:16] center. Jordanian armed forces said they [04:19] intercepted and shot down five missiles, [04:21] while Kuwait said its air defenses were [04:23] engaging hostile aerial targets. [04:27] The warmongering US regime attacked [04:29] several points in Jask, Sirik, and Qeshm [04:33] early this morning under false pretext, [04:35] damaging a telecommunications mast in [04:37] Sirik and destroying two water tanks in [04:40] the city. [04:41] That's what the IRGC said. [04:44] And then they made some threats. [04:47] Okay, let's take a look on a map. [04:50] So, someone provided a map for us. I'm [04:52] not going to pull up my own. Here's [04:53] Sirik. Here's Jask. Jask is just outside [04:56] the Strait of Hormuz. [04:58] Sirik is right here. [05:01] And then you have Qeshm, which is this [05:02] island. [05:04] And they also hit, I believe, Bandar [05:06] Abbas. So, you see what they're doing [05:08] here. These are These are very similar [05:10] sites [05:12] to what was hit, if you remember last [05:15] week, when the Iranians targeted [05:17] American American ship. [05:19] And in retaliation, the Americans [05:21] targeted um [05:23] um missile launch sites, radar [05:25] installations, drone launch uh sites in [05:29] these same spots. So, it's pretty [05:31] obvious that the military installations [05:34] in these places, in Qeshm, Bandar Abbas, [05:36] Sirik, Jask, these are the places where [05:39] the Iranians are keeping the straits [05:40] closed. So, these defensive actions, and [05:43] I I I I theorized last week that the [05:46] Americans are actually trying to send [05:48] ships through and trying to actually [05:49] provoke the Iranians [05:52] so that they have a pretext for these [05:55] self-defense actions that are actually [05:57] degrading [05:59] degrading the ability of the Iranians to [06:01] keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. [06:04] Anyway, let's get to the reactions. [06:06] So, first of all, the Jordan military [06:08] says that it shot down five missiles [06:10] from Iran. [06:12] Right, the Jordanian military said on [06:14] Wednesday it shot down five missiles [06:16] launched from Iran as Tehran and [06:18] Washington engaged in a tit-for-tat [06:21] after the downing of a US helicopter. [06:23] Quote, "We intercepted and shot down [06:24] five missiles launched from Iran towards [06:26] Azraq." [06:28] The interception resulted in debris [06:29] falling, but there were no casualties or [06:31] material damage, the Jordanian armed [06:33] forces said in a statement. [06:35] And Iran's Revolutionary Guard say they [06:37] targeted the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain [06:40] after American strikes. [06:42] They warned of a more severe response if [06:44] US aggression continues. [06:48] Okay? And we have Kuwait. Kuwait says [06:51] air defenses engaging hostile targets as [06:53] Iran attacks regional countries. [06:56] Right, the Kuwait's military said its [06:58] air defenses are engaging. The General [07:00] Staff of the Army announced that their [07:02] air defense systems are engaging hostile [07:03] aerial targets. Okay. [07:06] And then we have the reactions. Saudi [07:08] Arabia condemns Iranian attacks against [07:10] Bahrain, Jordan, and Kuwait. Saudi [07:12] Arabia on Wednesday condemned Iran's [07:14] latest attacks on Bahrain, Jordan, and [07:16] Kuwait. The Foreign Ministry expresses [07:18] the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's [07:19] condemnation of the wanton Iranian [07:22] attacks and barefaced transgressions [07:26] against the sovereignty of the brotherly [07:27] Kingdom of Bahrain, the brotherly state [07:30] of Kuwait, and the brotherly Hashemite [07:32] Kingdom of Jordan in the strongest terms [07:34] regarding the threat to the security and [07:37] peace of the lands of the brotherly [07:39] states and their airspace, the statement [07:41] read. A lot of brotherly there. It [07:43] stressed that the continuation of those [07:44] attacks threatens regional and [07:46] international security and harms efforts [07:49] aiming to ease escalation and bring back [07:51] security and stability to the region. [07:53] The kingdom affirms its first its full [07:55] solidarity with the kingdom of Bahrain, [07:57] the state of Kuwait, and the Hashemite [07:59] Kingdom of Jordan and its support to [08:01] whatever the brotherly states undertake [08:03] in terms of measures to protect their [08:05] sovereignty, security, stability, and [08:08] the peace of their citizens and those [08:09] residing territories, the statement [08:11] concluded. [08:13] Since Israel and the United States began [08:15] launching attacks on Iran on February [08:17] 28th, Tehran has responded by targeting [08:19] several Arab countries not involved in [08:22] the conflict, striking civilian [08:24] infrastructure in those actions. And [08:27] also similarly, the UAE UAE condemns [08:30] Iranian attacks on Jordan, Bahrain, and [08:32] Kuwait. In a statement, the Ministry of [08:34] Foreign Affairs affirmed that these [08:35] attacks constitute a flagrant violation [08:38] of the three nations' sovereignty and [08:39] pose a threat to security and stability. [08:42] It also expressed the UAE's full [08:43] solidarity with the affected countries [08:45] and its support for all measures taken [08:48] to protect its people. [08:52] The IRGC said on Wednesday that they had [08:54] carried out missile and drone attacks on [08:55] US military bases in Jordan, Kuwait, and [08:57] Bahrain on Wednesday in retaliation for [09:00] American strikes [09:03] on Iranian targets around the Strait of [09:06] Hormuz. [09:08] Okay. [09:09] There you have it. [09:10] So, the question I'm asking is [09:13] why did they attack only these three [09:16] countries? Why did they not attack the [09:18] UAE? [09:20] Why did they not attack Saudi Arabia? [09:21] Let's remember that between February [09:23] 28th, the beginning of the war, and [09:25] April 8th, when the ceasefire went into [09:28] effect, [09:29] the UAE was attacked more times by Iran. [09:32] They They had more missiles and drones [09:34] shot at them by Iran than any other [09:37] country, including Israel. Way more. [09:39] Like double. [09:41] Why now? And they have a huge US base [09:44] there, by the way. They have [09:45] lots of They have a very strategic US [09:47] airbase [09:49] in the UAE. Why wasn't that attacked? [09:50] Why Why are we only attacking the US [09:52] airbase in Jordan? [09:55] And and the and the US base in Kuwait, [09:58] and the US base in [10:00] in Bahrain. Why not the UAE? Why not [10:02] Saudi Arabia, where there's multiple US [10:03] bases? That's the question I want to [10:05] answer now. [10:09] So, [10:11] I believe that this is a careful This is [10:12] very carefully calculated. [10:14] And we're going to unpack it. Let's [10:16] start with Saudi Arabia. [10:18] Saudi Arabia has been walking a very [10:20] delicate line throughout this conflict. [10:23] They've had diplomatic channels that [10:26] have remained open with Iran [10:28] more than the UAE. [10:30] We'll get to the UAE later. [10:32] We have to remember that [10:34] Iran and Saudi Arabia were actually on [10:36] better terms before this war [10:39] than they had been on than they'd been [10:41] on in a long time. That started in 2023. [10:45] The Chinese brokered a normalization [10:46] agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran. [10:49] The relationship is fragile, but it [10:51] still exists. [10:52] And what's more important, more more in [10:55] the more immediate, the Saudis have been [10:57] messaging to the Iranians that they're [10:59] looking for a negotiated settlement. [11:01] They're not looking to bring down the [11:02] regime. We're not your enemy. [11:04] We didn't let the Americans use our [11:06] airspace to bomb you. [11:08] Saudi Arabia has actually been playing [11:12] you know, a game here where they're [11:13] they're trying to show the Iranians that [11:15] they're not as hostile to them as [11:17] everyone else. Okay? [11:19] Um [11:21] I I'll more than that. If Iran bombs [11:23] Saudi Arabia, [11:25] then [11:27] it really pushes Saudi Arabia fully into [11:29] the American camp. [11:31] There's also the oil factor. Saudi [11:32] Arabia is the world's dominant oil [11:34] producer [11:35] and the backbone of OPEC. A strike on on [11:38] Saudi oil infrastructure or Saudi hosted [11:41] US bases [11:42] would send a much greater shockwave [11:45] through global energy markets. [11:48] Jordan doesn't doesn't produce oil. [11:50] Bahrain produces a very small amount [11:53] compared to these other countries [11:54] compared to Saudi Arabia or the UAE. [11:56] Very, very small amount. [11:58] Um [12:01] and maybe the Iranian the Iranians might [12:03] be thinking that they don't want to blow [12:05] up oil prices with this. [12:08] That's not what they were trying to do [12:09] cuz if they blow up oil prices, look, [12:12] Trump's trying to keep oil prices down. [12:14] That's a big reason for everything Trump [12:15] is doing saying there's always a deal [12:17] we're almost up to a deal. Don't worry, [12:19] it'll be over soon. We'll get the [12:20] straights open really quickly. [12:23] Uh not going back to kinetic action. [12:25] Trump is trying to keep oil prices down. [12:28] If the Iranians blow up oil prices and [12:30] cause them to spike, then Trump is [12:33] basically like, why should I [12:35] what's the point of having a ceasefire [12:36] if oil prices are through the roof? So, [12:39] an attack on Saudi Arabia would have a [12:42] much greater impact on oil prices. That [12:44] might even be the biggest reason cuz I'm [12:45] coming up with a few different options [12:47] here, but that might be the biggest [12:48] reason here. [12:50] The entire international community would [12:52] freak out over that in a way that [12:53] they're not freaking out over these [12:54] attacks. [12:57] Right? They can't afford that type of [12:59] squeeze. [13:00] Now, the UAE is is different and it's [13:02] more interesting story. On paper, [13:04] the Al Dhafra Air Base, [13:07] which is a US Air Base outside of Abu [13:10] Dhabi, is as [13:12] on paper it's as strategically [13:13] significant as anything Iran hit, [13:16] as anything that you have in in in [13:17] Kuwait or or or Jordan. [13:21] Right? It has 5,000 US troops. It has [13:23] F-35s. [13:25] It has massive intelligence and [13:27] surveillance operations there. Now, Iran [13:29] already hit Al Dhafra early in the war. [13:32] Uh they they destroyed an advanced radar [13:34] system there that was worth hundreds of [13:36] millions of dollars. So, they're not [13:37] It's not like they're sparing the UAE or [13:40] that they don't know what's there, [13:41] right? The The reason Iran's being very [13:43] careful about the UAE, [13:46] I believe, is that the UAE is not just a [13:48] host country for American forces. [13:51] I mean, Kuwait is. That's pretty much [13:53] all Kuwait is. [13:55] The UAE, we'll get to that more in a [13:56] bit, but the UAE is an independent [13:58] military power in its own right in a way [14:00] that Bahrain and Kuwait are not. [14:03] Think about what the UAE has already [14:04] absorbed in this war. They've hundreds [14:07] of ballistic missiles, like 1,500 [14:09] drones, like a crazy amount. [14:11] And they've intercepted the overwhelming [14:13] majority of them with their own [14:15] six-layer defense system. They've lost a [14:18] a small handful of people. [14:20] A senior UAE official said publicly that [14:23] Iran did not expect the Gulf's air [14:25] defenses to perform this well. [14:27] Right, they underestimated them. [14:29] But here's the thing that really [14:30] matters. [14:32] The UAE, on this defense point, the UAE [14:35] has not ruled out going on the offensive [14:37] against Iran. [14:39] A senior Emirati military official said [14:41] in April, and I'm paraphrasing here, [14:44] that the UAE military involvement, that [14:46] UAE getting involved militarily, [14:48] kinetically, against Iran is not off the [14:51] table. [14:52] Right, in other words, they [14:54] they have a pretty they have great [14:56] equipment, [14:57] and the UAE's been saying that we're [14:59] willing to defend ourselves. We're not [15:00] looking to escalate, but don't push us. [15:03] So, Iran's looking at the UAE and seeing [15:06] a different situation than what they see [15:08] when they look at Kuwait and Bahrain. [15:11] You see, if they strike the UAE, [15:13] it's not just about triggering Trump, [15:16] they they'll trigger Abu Dhabi [15:17] independently, [15:19] which will take its own independent [15:21] action. But, and unlike Bahrain and [15:23] Kuwait, which are basically [15:25] fully US protectorates, the UAE makes [15:28] its own decisions. They've said this [15:29] explicitly, we're a sovereign state, we [15:31] make it we make decisions independently. [15:33] But there's another dimension. There's a [15:35] third dimension to the UAE issue here [15:37] that I think might be the most [15:39] important. [15:40] And that's the money. [15:42] See, Dubai in the UAE, Dubai is the [15:46] primary [15:48] mechanism [15:49] through which Iran evades Western [15:51] sanctions. There's these shell companies [15:54] that are registered in Dubai's free [15:55] zones. I talked about this a few weeks [15:57] ago [15:58] um about the UAE's financial financial [16:01] system and how they've really [16:03] facilitated like they've [16:06] even though they don't like Iran, it's [16:07] in their interest to remain a financial [16:09] hub for the movement of money in and out [16:11] of Iran. [16:12] So it Iranian they have this informal [16:15] currency exchange. They have Iranian oil [16:18] sales that are routed through UAE-linked [16:21] companies. Billions of dollars flow [16:24] through the Emirates to keep Iran's [16:26] economy on life support. [16:28] The UAE has been Iran's financial [16:30] lifeline for years. [16:33] And again, it's not because they're [16:34] friends, it's because it's in both of [16:36] their interest to keep this going. It's [16:38] good for the UAE to remain that [16:40] financial hub, and it's good for Iran to [16:42] have a way to launder their money. [16:45] For lack of a better term. So Iran's [16:47] economy [16:49] is I mean, to call it collapsing right [16:51] now is an understatement. And and we see [16:53] in the negotiations the Iranian regime [16:54] is just like strapped for cash, [16:57] desperate for cash. They're making it [16:58] like a red line, they have to have cash. [17:01] Inflation's running [17:03] it was it was running near 70% before [17:06] the war started. They're not talking [17:07] about 100% month over month. [17:10] They're desperate to get their frozen [17:12] assets unfrozen as a condition for any [17:14] negotiations. [17:16] Right? So the money issue is existential [17:18] for them. And here's the leverage that [17:20] the UAE holds. [17:21] There were reports back in March that [17:24] the UAE was considering freezing [17:26] billions of dollars in Iranian assets [17:28] held there. [17:30] All right. It was I saw one article that [17:32] described it as the most important [17:34] non-military tool that the UAE has [17:37] against Iran. Right now, a full freeze, [17:39] shutting down the Dubai [17:42] uh sanctions evasion [17:45] system, [17:47] targeting all of these companies, [17:48] cutting off those currency flows, would [17:50] hit Iran harder than almost any military [17:53] strike. [17:54] So, [17:56] so Iran is didn't attack Abu Dhabi at [18:00] this time. They had They'd no problem [18:02] attacking them earlier in the war, but [18:03] right now, when they're so strapped for [18:05] cash, and cash is the big thing they [18:06] want, [18:08] I mean, they don't want full kinetic [18:09] action against them from America. They [18:10] They know that Trump doesn't want to go [18:12] back to war, and that's why they're [18:13] taking liberties firing rockets [18:16] at at different American assets, and [18:17] they're getting more more bold lately [18:20] because they don't believe that Trump is [18:22] actually is willing to go back to [18:24] kinetic warfare. I talked about that in [18:25] the previous in the video I made [18:27] yesterday about this whole situation, [18:29] that they're poking Trump because they [18:30] know he doesn't want to go back to [18:31] kinetic. [18:34] But, they need cash. [18:36] Okay? They need cash. [18:39] So, [18:42] they're not just trying to avoid the [18:45] retaliation from the UAE by not [18:47] attacking the UAE. [18:49] They're making a calculated decision [18:51] because they need their financial hub to [18:55] keep functioning. [18:57] To whatever extent it's still [18:57] functioning. Every missile that Iran [19:00] doesn't fire at the UAE is an [19:02] acknowledgement that they need those [19:04] free zones open. They need those [19:05] currency exchanges running. They need [19:08] the financial lifeline intact. [19:11] So, [19:13] they're they're basically they're [19:15] they're preserving their oxygen [19:17] supplies. Now now Kuwait and Bahrain, by [19:19] contrast, whatever their strategic [19:22] significance, they're not going to [19:23] retaliate on their own. [19:25] They they don't They're they're just [19:27] not. [19:29] They're striking them is essentially [19:31] striking US assets on soil that won't [19:34] fight back independently. They don't [19:36] And and they also have no They don't [19:38] have any of that financial leverage that [19:40] the UAE has over Iran. [19:43] So, that's a much more manageable [19:44] calculation. And certainly not Jordan. [19:46] Jordan has Jordan has no financial [19:48] leverage and they're not They're not [19:50] going to fight back. [19:51] That's for sure. So, when you put it all [19:53] together, Iran's target selection in [19:56] this latest skirmish was a message to [19:59] Washington. Here's what we can reach. [20:02] Here's what we're willing to hit [20:04] while carefully staying below the [20:06] threshold of two specific countries. [20:10] The one that can independently blow back [20:12] at them militarily and holds their [20:14] financial lifelines in its hands. [20:17] That's the UAE. And the one whose [20:19] goodwill they still need diplomatically. [20:23] And that's Saudi Arabia. Okay? So, [20:25] that's why I believe they did not attack [20:27] the UAE and Saudi Arabia. [20:29] Uh they're being very calculated in all [20:31] this. [20:32] Uh and that's what I think is going on [20:34] here. Of course, they also didn't attack [20:35] Israel because the last thing they want [20:36] to do is that. Um because they don't [20:39] want because Israel will just hammer [20:42] them. [20:43] And that's not what they're And that's [20:44] not what they're looking for, either. [20:46] Okay. I hope this made sense. I hope uh [20:49] maybe I'm a I'm a complete fool. Let me [20:51] know in the comments if you think so. [20:53] Uh but uh it's important to keep our eye [20:56] on the on all the different players and [20:58] and how they're uh [21:00] how their uh strategic position, their [21:04] incentives, and uh [21:07] and you know, their importance to each [21:09] side of the conflict differs. [21:12] All right. [21:13] Thanks for watching. Please share this, [21:15] please like it, please do whatever [21:17] people do when they like videos. And uh [21:20] and make sure you subscribe to the [21:21] channel. And thank you so much for [21:22] helping grow the channel. It's really [21:23] been uh it's it's been a great blessing. [21:25] All right, God bless you.
