Transcript [00:00] By now, you've seen the headline, you've [00:01] heard about it. Trump had a major strike [00:03] on Iran planned for Tuesday, for today, [00:06] and hours before executing it, he called [00:08] it off. Why? Because the Emir of Qatar, [00:11] the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, and [00:12] the President of the UAE picked up the [00:15] phone and asked him to wait, and he [00:18] listened to them. [00:20] That's what he did. [00:21] He gave in to the pressure from the [00:25] Gulf. [00:26] So, here's the the key takeaway that [00:29] I want to drill down on. [00:32] The Gulf states have a different [00:34] objective. [00:36] They have a different desired outcome of [00:38] this war than the Americans, and [00:40] certainly than the Israelis. [00:43] They don't want Iran destroyed. They [00:45] don't want regime change. They want Iran [00:47] weak, but standing, because a free, [00:50] democratic, pro-Western Iran is actually [00:52] a bigger threat to their own grip on [00:54] power than the mullahs are. And last [00:56] night, they proved it. [00:58] The three Gulf leaders called the [00:59] President of the United States and told [01:01] him to stand down from a military [01:03] strike, and he stood down. [01:05] And that's what I want to expand on in [01:08] this video, and we're going to show you [01:09] how this whole thing played out, what [01:11] the whole chessboard looks like. So, [01:12] buckle up. Here's what makes this whole [01:14] thing even more interesting. [01:17] Four days ago, Iranian regime media, on [01:20] WANA, [01:21] published an analytical piece [01:24] that described exactly this dynamic. [01:28] They described the the Gulf states [01:31] uh kind of playing both sides a little [01:33] bit, Trump caught in a strategic trap [01:37] that he can't escape. [01:39] The US operating from a position of [01:42] weakness or conflictedness that it won't [01:46] admit to. [01:47] And then today, the same outlet [01:50] published a follow-up, openly declaring, [01:52] and I'm going to quote this directly, [01:54] that for the first time in this [01:55] conflict, the United States spoke not [01:58] from a position of confidence, but from [02:00] a position of uncertainty. [02:02] That's the enemy media [02:04] narrating American paralysis, and [02:06] they're not wrong. Now, we've been [02:08] tracking every piece of this together [02:11] throughout this war, and today I want to [02:12] show you [02:13] uh the evidence, because when you see it [02:16] laid out, what happened last night stops [02:18] being a surprise and starts looking like [02:21] the most predictable thing in the world. [02:23] Now, for those of you who are new to [02:24] this channel, let me introduce you to [02:26] WANA. That's the West Asia News Agency. [02:28] It's the Iranian regime's [02:29] English-language media outlet. Now, [02:32] again, if you're new and you're [02:34] thinking, "Why would I read Iranian [02:36] regime media?" [02:37] The answer is that when a totalitarian [02:39] regime publishes analysis in their [02:42] regime media, [02:44] it is very useful, because it's not [02:47] journalism. It's a press release. It's a [02:49] window into how they see the chessboard. [02:52] That doesn't mean you take it at face [02:53] value, but it means that you you [02:56] understand that they are doing their [02:58] messaging, and you read it critically, [03:00] but it tells you what they believe. It [03:01] tells you where they want things to go. [03:05] Okay? That's why we do this. [03:08] So, 4 days ago, they published a piece [03:10] called "A Review of Western Behavior in [03:12] the Recent West Asia War." [03:16] And today they published two follow-ups. [03:18] We're going to look at these pieces. [03:19] Let's start with the framework they laid [03:21] out 4 days ago, because it reads today [03:23] like a prediction that came true [03:25] overnight. Here's what they wrote 4 days [03:27] ago about the Gulf states. [03:32] Uh contrary to some expectations, we are [03:34] not witnessing the formation of a [03:36] comprehensive coalition against Iran. [03:40] Many countries, particularly in the [03:41] Persian Gulf region, are seeking to [03:43] create a balance among actors and [03:45] prevent the absolute dominance of any [03:47] single one. [03:49] The approach, or this approach, rather [03:52] than stemming from alignment, [03:54] is the result of a shared understanding [03:56] of the danger of instability and its [03:59] impact on economic development and [04:02] internal security. [04:04] There it is, 4 days ago. The Gulf states [04:06] are not forming a coalition against [04:07] Iran, they're seeking balance. They're [04:10] preventing the dominance of any single [04:12] power, including Iran, but also [04:15] including Israel or US-Israel alliance [04:18] that might actually finish the job. [04:21] We've been saying this for months on [04:22] this channel. The Gulf states want Iran [04:26] weakened, but they do not want the [04:28] regime replaced. A secular, pro-Western [04:31] Iran with 90 million people, many of [04:33] them highly educated and and [04:36] Western-aligned, cosmopolitan, a growing [04:38] Christian community [04:40] with massive energy reserves, [04:43] if that became a reality, this [04:45] pro-Western, democratic Iran, it would [04:48] be the most powerful country in the [04:50] region overnight. [04:53] And it would terrify Riyadh and Abu [04:55] Dhabi. [04:57] Culturally, it would be a massive threat [04:58] to them. [05:00] And it would it terrifies them far more [05:01] than the current mullah regime in Iran [05:04] in a weakened state does. [05:06] So, when MBS, MBZ, and the Emir of Qatar [05:09] call Trump, they're not just acting as [05:12] allies helping Trump navigate this and [05:15] helping him win. [05:22] They're acting as players managing the [05:25] outcome. [05:27] And the outcome they're managing toward [05:28] is not regime change. [05:30] Here's what else they wrote 4 days ago [05:32] in this piece. [05:35] Uh a little bit further up. The [05:36] situation can be considered a kind of [05:38] strategic deadlock. They're talking [05:40] about Trump. [05:42] The situation can be considered a kind [05:44] of strategic deadlock, a position where [05:46] entering a war is costly, [05:49] yet retreating leads to a weakening of [05:52] credibility. The result is the adoption [05:54] of a policy that neither leads to a [05:56] resolution of the crisis nor allows for [05:59] its full escalation. [06:03] Very astute point. [06:05] So, what are they saying here? What did [06:06] we just read? [06:08] 4 days ago, here they are describing the [06:11] the the deadlock [06:13] that Trump is in. [06:14] And last night we watched exactly that [06:16] deadlock play out in real time. [06:19] And then today they moved from [06:20] predicting the trap to describing Trump [06:24] caught in the trap. So, let's go to the [06:26] uh let's go to what they wrote today [06:29] and see how they describe it there. [06:31] So, this is a piece, "Why did Trump pull [06:33] back again at the last minute from [06:35] striking Iran?" And in the piece they [06:37] talk about a report uh that's that comes [06:39] out of Washington uh about uh a recent [06:42] report by the New York Times may have [06:44] revealed the most important piece of the [06:45] puzzle. The Pentagon reportedly warned [06:47] Trump that Iran is rapidly building its [06:50] air defense network, and it has now [06:52] regained the capability to track US [06:53] aerial operations. [06:56] Then it jumps down. Uh I'm jumping down [06:57] a little bit. The report also noted that [06:59] after weeks of bombardment Iran has [07:02] reactivated many of its buried missile [07:04] sites, while its commanders have [07:06] reportedly studied the flight patterns [07:08] of American war planes. One US military [07:10] official admitted that Washington's [07:12] strikes had mostly destroyed the [07:15] entrances to missile facilities [07:17] rather than the infrastructure [07:19] itself. [07:21] That point may explain why Trump's tone [07:23] has shifted repeatedly in recent weeks. [07:26] One day speaking of ending the war, the [07:28] next threatening a massive strike, only [07:31] to later announce another pause. [07:36] There you go. [07:38] We've been watching this tension build [07:40] for months. [07:41] We have Trump the deal maker [07:44] and then we have Trump the liberator. [07:46] Right, one day he's talking about the [07:48] Iranian people rising up and taking [07:49] their country back. [07:51] The next day he's talking about making a [07:53] beautiful deal [07:55] about the Venezuela option. [07:58] And WANA, Iranian state media, they've [08:00] been watching this every shift, every [08:02] threat, every walk back, every pause. [08:05] And all of this feeds into their [08:06] strategy, which is survive long enough [08:09] for all of these tensions to do their [08:12] work. [08:15] Listen to that quote again. The reality [08:16] is that Washington now faces an Iran [08:21] right there. The reality is that [08:23] Washington now faces an Iran that has [08:25] not only survived the war, but according [08:28] to American officials themselves, [08:30] adapted to it. There it is. [08:33] According to American officials [08:34] themselves, they're quoting our own [08:35] people against us. [08:38] And then they had a second piece today. [08:41] The second piece was called [08:43] Behind Trump's [08:45] Retreat on Iran Revealed. A little bit [08:48] of an awkward title. [08:50] And there [08:52] they lay out some more details of what [08:53] we saw in that piece, that the Pentagon [08:55] reportedly warned Trump that Iran has [08:57] rebuilt its air defenses. We saw that in [08:59] the first piece. [09:01] And they can now track US aerial [09:02] operations, that the US strikes [09:04] destroyed the entrances to the missile [09:06] facilities, [09:07] but they also added in [09:10] that Iranian commanders, with possible [09:12] Russian assistance, studied the flight [09:14] patterns of the US aircraft and [09:16] identified vulnerabilities in American [09:18] operations. Now, all of this could be [09:20] smoke and mirrors. It could all be [09:21] bluster. We don't know if it's true or [09:22] not. [09:24] But here's the detail that I think [09:26] landed the hardest [09:28] in inside the Pentagon. [09:30] The US lost an F-15 in recent weeks [09:35] and there was an F-35 that was damaged. [09:37] And that raised serious alarm that [09:38] American operational patterns might have [09:41] become more predictable to the Iranians [09:43] cuz those things happened towards the [09:44] end of the fighting. [09:46] We're now 3 months in. A war that was [09:48] supposed to be over in 4 to 5 weeks. [09:51] And there's one more thing. Just add [09:53] this to the mix of what the pressures on [09:55] Trump. There's this New York Times CNN [09:57] poll that now shows that a majority of [09:59] American voters believe that going to [10:01] war with Iran was a mistake. [10:04] So, Trump isn't just caught between the [10:06] military options. He's also losing [10:09] control of the domestic narrative if [10:11] there's any truth to this polling. [10:14] And then comes this line in the piece [10:16] from 4 days ago. And this one really [10:18] stopped me. [10:20] Here, let's go back to that piece. [10:24] Trump launched the war promising a show [10:26] of strength. [10:28] But he now finds himself trapped in a [10:29] costly dilemma. This is it. This is it [10:32] right here. If he refrains from [10:34] attacking, he risks appearing weak. If [10:36] he attacks and fails to achieve decisive [10:39] results, he could be drawn into a [10:41] prolonged conflict capable of [10:43] destabilizing global energy markets, the [10:45] US economy, and even Washington's Arab [10:49] allies. [10:50] They've got their finger on the pulse. [10:51] And they wrote this before the events of [10:54] yesterday when the Gulf states called [10:56] Trump. [10:57] Think about that. [10:58] Iranian regime media was describing the [11:00] president of the United States caught in [11:02] a trap. [11:04] And the frustrating thing for us is that [11:06] they're not wrong. [11:07] This is what paralysis looks like. [11:11] And at the very end of the piece, they [11:13] state their punchline. And of course, [11:15] they bold it. I pointed this out before. [11:16] They like to bold one or two sentences [11:18] in every piece. [11:19] For the first time in this conflict, the [11:21] United States spoke not from a position [11:23] of confidence, but from a position of [11:25] uncertainty. I mentioned that near the [11:26] beginning of this video. [11:30] And that's not spin. [11:32] It's an accurate read of what of what's [11:33] happening. [11:35] Now, let's talk about why Trump is in [11:36] this trap. [11:38] How did we How did he get into this [11:39] trap? You see, it's not just about Iran. [11:41] It's about Trump himself. He kind of [11:43] built the trap. [11:46] See, when he announced the delay, [11:49] let's go to that piece [11:50] in NPR that announces the delay. Here we [11:52] go. Trump says he's called off Iran [11:54] strike at request of Gulf allies cuz it [11:55] brings the quote, which you could find [11:57] online. He said this in the White House [11:59] yesterday. [12:00] Listen to Trump. [12:02] Quote, "There seems to be a very good [12:04] chance that they can work something out. [12:05] If we can do that without bombing the [12:07] hell out of them, I'd be very happy." [12:10] Trump said he had planned, quote, "a [12:11] very major attack, but put it off, [12:14] quote, for a little while, hopefully, [12:16] maybe forever." [12:20] He said America's allies in the Gulf [12:21] asked him to wait 2 or 3 days because [12:23] they feel they are close. [12:25] They are close to a deal with Iran. [12:30] So, we've been tracking this since the [12:31] beginning. [12:33] Two Trumps in the war. Trump the deal [12:35] maker wants a transactional win. Nukes [12:38] off the table, [12:39] Hormuz open, [12:41] declare victory, pivot to the economy [12:43] before the midterms, take the Venezuela [12:46] model where you decapitate the top of [12:47] the regime and work with whoever's left, [12:49] you call it regime change and move on. [12:53] And then you have Trump the liberator. [12:56] Trump told the Iranian people help is on [12:58] the way. [13:00] Trump has repeatedly said that previous [13:02] presidents for 47 years did nothing [13:05] about the Iranian regime, and he's not [13:06] going to leave it to anyone else to deal [13:08] with. [13:10] Implying that he's not going to leave [13:13] the IRGC in control, that he's not going [13:15] to leave any kind of skeleton of the [13:17] Iranian regime that can rebuild itself [13:20] and reconstitute all of its nefarious [13:21] behavior. [13:24] So, which is it? [13:25] Those two Trumps are now in direct [13:27] conflict. [13:28] And last night the Gulf states knew [13:31] exactly which one to call. They didn't [13:32] call Trump the liberator, they called [13:34] Trump the dealmaker and he answered the [13:36] call. [13:40] And here's the big question [13:43] that we have to talk about now. [13:45] What about Israel? Where's Israel in all [13:47] of this? [13:48] Cuz we know that Israel wanted [13:49] full-scale attacks and that Netanyahu [13:51] spoke to Trump a couple days ago. [13:53] Obviously, we can assume that Bibi was [13:56] was making the case to Trump to go back [13:59] to large-scale attacks before the Gulf [14:01] states called. [14:03] So, what did Trump say about the about [14:05] Israel regarding the delay? He said that [14:07] he briefed the Israelis. Notice the [14:09] language, he didn't say he consulted [14:10] with them, he didn't say he discussed it [14:12] with them, he didn't say they agreed [14:14] with him, he said he briefed them. [14:17] He told them about it, basically. [14:20] The divergence between US and Israeli [14:22] objectives has been a topic I've been [14:24] talking about since day one. There was [14:26] this narrative out there, especially in [14:28] the early weeks, that was promulgated [14:30] both by the Americans and the Israelis [14:31] that we're lockstep, we're arm-in-arm, [14:33] we're shoulder-to-shoulder, we're doing [14:34] everything together, we're consulting [14:36] with each [clears throat] other daily. [14:37] And I was pointing out from even before [14:39] the war started, not only on this [14:40] channel, but also in all the interviews [14:42] that I did on various shows, [14:44] that we have to keep our eye [14:46] on the simple fact that Israel and the [14:49] US do not have the same objectives and [14:51] we are going to get to a point where [14:53] they diverge. The US wants the missiles [14:55] gone, they want Hormuz open, Israel [14:57] wants the regime gone. Those are not the [15:00] same thing. And now we have reached a [15:02] situation where three Gulf leaders [15:05] vetoed a US military strike, which is [15:07] what Israel wanted, and Israel had no [15:09] say in the matter. [15:12] If a deal gets made that leaves the IRGC [15:15] structure intact, [15:17] that a a deal that satisfies the Gulf [15:20] states, right? They say that they're [15:21] close to a deal in a few days. [15:24] And if the deal satisfies Trump, the [15:26] deal maker, [15:27] and everyone just declares victory and [15:29] goes home, Israel is going to be [15:31] standing alone saying that this is [15:33] insufficient. [15:34] It's not good enough. And watch how fast [15:37] everything shifts when that happens. [15:39] Right now Israel is America's [15:40] indispensable partner. [15:43] Brothers in arms. [15:44] The moment Israel rejects the deal, [15:46] they're going to become the warmongering [15:48] obstacle to peace. We've seen that movie [15:50] before. [15:51] Cuz Israel has different objectives. [15:54] This brings us back to something else [15:55] that Wana wrote in the piece from 4 days [15:58] ago. Let's go over to that again. [16:02] Uh [16:03] let me find this section here. [16:09] Here. It's about the narrative warfare. [16:12] Here. In today's world, the perception [16:15] of reality is sometimes more important [16:17] than reality itself. [16:19] Actors who can shape the dominant [16:21] narrative will be able to stabilize [16:23] their position even under complex field [16:27] conditions. [16:29] Interesting sentence. [16:31] This was around strategy from the [16:33] beginning. [16:34] Remember, they've always known they [16:35] can't win militarily. Their strategy is [16:38] to survive long enough for the narrative [16:40] to shift. [16:42] To survive long enough [16:44] to survive until the pressure on Trump [16:47] to stop becomes greater than the [16:49] pressure to finish the job. Like right [16:52] now. [16:53] Until the Gulf states start picking up [16:55] the phone, until Washington [16:57] would rather talk about deals instead of [16:59] talking about victory and freedom for [17:01] the Iranian people. [17:04] Until the Iranian regime can [17:06] publish articles about how the United [17:08] States looks uncertain. [17:11] They told us the plan 4 days ago, and [17:14] here we are. [17:16] So there you have it, folks. [17:18] Let's hope this all works out well. [17:22] >> [clears throat] [17:22] >> Let me also remind you [17:24] to join us [17:26] for the for a very important webinar [17:28] that's taking place tomorrow. [17:31] You can still sign up for it. Will [17:32] America First Stand with Israel? I'm [17:34] going to be hosting and moderating it [17:36] and I'll be joined by Josh Hammer, [17:38] senior editor at large Newsweek, host of [17:40] the Josh Hammer Show, Dr. David Wurmser [17:43] of the Center for Security Policy in [17:44] Washington D.C., one of the foremost [17:46] Middle East experts in the world, [17:48] and Pastor Rob McCoy, [17:50] who is one of the one of the co-founders [17:53] of Turning Point USA Faith and was [17:55] Charlie Kirk's [17:56] pastor. He was his He was his faith [17:58] mentor. They traveled a lot together. [17:59] They were very close. And he knows the [18:01] America First movement intimately. You [18:03] can sign up for it by going to [18:05] israel365.com/americafirst. [18:08] That link should be in the description [18:10] of this video. [18:11] Or you could scan this QR code and and [18:15] join the webinar. Now, even if you can't [18:17] make it, it's at 1:00 p.m. tomorrow, [18:18] 1:00 p.m. Wednesday, May 20th. Even if [18:20] you can't make it at the time, you [18:22] should still register because then you [18:24] will receive in your email the full [18:27] webinar after it airs and you can watch [18:29] it on your own time. So go ahead and and [18:31] and register for that webinar. [18:34] And uh [18:35] keep watching, keep sharing. Thank you [18:36] very much for helping grow the channel [18:38] and God bless you all.
