Transcript [00:00] Hey everyone, so in this video we're [00:01] going to talk about the current state of [00:05] the Hormuz negotiation. There is a [00:08] specific [00:09] besides the idea that there are [00:11] negotiations between the US and Iran on [00:13] the nuclear or ceasefire or whatever it [00:15] is they might be negotiating. There is a [00:17] specific negotiation on the Strait of [00:20] Hormuz that's been ongoing [00:22] principally between the Iranians and the [00:24] Omanis. [00:26] And apparently the US is involved in it [00:28] also. Let's get into the details of [00:30] that. And towards the end of this video [00:32] I want to talk about the whole concept [00:35] of a deal with Iran. And even if we [00:39] could get the you know the greatest deal [00:41] what that could mean and why and why any [00:44] deal is really problematic. So I'll talk [00:46] about that towards the end of the video. [00:47] Stick around for that because I think [00:48] it's an important it's an important [00:51] point to frame everything we're seeing [00:53] over these months and make you know make [00:56] us a little bit smarter [00:57] going forward. Okay, let's let's hit the [01:00] headlines. [01:02] Here's a headline from Axios [01:04] and this is from just uh [01:08] just uh it's listed here as 8 hours ago. [01:11] So it's from yesterday. [01:12] US nears US nears Hormuz deal aiming for [01:16] Wednesday announcement. Wednesday is [01:17] today. The US Iran and Oman are closing [01:21] in on an interim agreement to reopen the [01:22] Strait of Hormuz with the US aiming for [01:24] a Wednesday announcement according to [01:25] two regional sources and a US official. [01:28] The deal which had been under [01:29] negotiations for several weeks is aimed [01:31] at resuming the ceasefire between the US [01:34] and Iran [01:35] and restarting negotiations over a [01:37] nuclear deal. So this is what we've [01:38] talked about. All of the fighting we've [01:39] seen over the last few weeks is already [01:41] part of negotiation. It's not really [01:44] driving towards victory. It's not [01:45] fighting for the sake of winning. It's [01:47] fighting for the sake of just using it [01:49] as a stick and a carrot and stick of [01:51] negotiations. [01:53] The emerging deal would meet some of [01:55] Iran's demands for greater control over [01:57] traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, control [01:59] it didn't have before the war. [02:02] And we'll get into that more in a bit. [02:04] According to two regional sources, the [02:06] deal under discussion sets up a 60-day [02:09] temporary arrangement between Oman and [02:12] Iran in the Hormuz Strait, which could [02:14] be extended. All inbound traffic of [02:16] ships through the Strait and into the [02:18] Gulf would go in a northern lane through [02:20] Iranian waters. All outbound traffic [02:23] through the Strait and into the Arabian [02:25] Sea would go in a southern lane through [02:27] Omani waters in coordination with Iran. [02:30] No tolls or fees would be charged during [02:32] the 60-day period, implying that you [02:35] could charge them after. [02:37] This gets back to the text of the [02:39] memorandum of understanding, which we'll [02:40] take a look at in a few minutes. [02:43] The parties would work on clearing naval [02:45] mines from the median lane of the Strait [02:47] within 30 days. After the median lane is [02:49] cleared, it would be used for inbound [02:51] and outbound traffic under the terms of [02:53] a permanent arrangement to be negotiated [02:55] between Oman and Iran. And we all know [02:58] what's problematic about this. Yes, yes, [02:59] we'll get to it in a minute. The White [03:01] House, Oman, and regional mediators [03:03] thought that they had a deal with Iran 3 [03:05] weeks ago, only to see Iran resume [03:08] attacks on ships. That led to weeks of [03:10] fighting and an almost all-out war. Two [03:13] regional sources said that Abbas [03:16] Araghchi, the foreign minister, agreed [03:17] in principle over the weekend, but still [03:19] needed approval from Iran's supreme [03:21] leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, [03:23] and the Supreme National Security [03:25] Council, right? [03:27] Uh whatever. We've talked about Mojtaba [03:29] recently. We don't have to go in there [03:31] any more um much more. This is from [03:33] Euronews. Trump says deal to open Strait [03:35] of Hormuz could come by Wednesday, or [03:37] Iran will get hit very hard. And this [03:38] adds in a little bit more than the Axios [03:40] piece. [03:41] Um that Donald Trump said Iran would get [03:43] hit very hard if negotiations fell [03:45] through. Iran has tightened its grip on [03:47] Hormuz and wants to control the Strait [03:49] and charge tolls, powers it did not [03:52] exercise before the war began on [03:54] February 28th. [03:58] Trump said on Tuesday that a deal with [03:59] Iran to reopen Hormuz could happen [04:01] tomorrow or the next day, telling [04:02] reporters in California [04:05] that negotiators had a very good day. [04:07] Earlier he struck a more threatening [04:08] tone. The strait is going to be open [04:10] very soon or they're going to get hit [04:11] very hard and then the strait's going to [04:14] be open, Trump said in an interview with [04:15] Fox News. So the question is why [04:17] negotiate if you can open it through [04:19] force? Why not just use the force? All [04:21] you can do is fight your way out. [04:23] Underlining the volatile situation, one [04:25] crew member was listed missing on a [04:27] merchant ship hit by a projectile in [04:29] Hormuz on Tuesday. So Iran is still [04:32] hitting ships in the Strait of Hormuz [04:34] even as they're negotiating. [04:35] Which basically means that Iran is [04:37] negotiating while continuing fire. And I [04:39] think that the mis- one of the mistakes [04:40] that the Americans have been making in [04:42] all of the negotiations [04:44] in all of the negotiations with Iran [04:47] from the beginning of this, one of the [04:48] biggest mistakes [04:50] that has been made regardless of the [04:52] fact that negotiations are pointless and [04:54] they shouldn't be happening anyway. [04:55] But once you're negotiating [04:58] it should only be negotiation while [05:00] continuing to attack, negotiation under [05:02] fire. [05:03] Because [05:05] because [05:06] because the Iranians' purpose is to drag [05:09] things out. They want negotiations to [05:11] last as long as possible. They delay [05:13] every response. They say they have to [05:15] get checks on the non-existent supreme [05:18] leader. They [05:20] they always want they really are very [05:22] good at playing this delay game. [05:25] And the only way to stop them from from [05:27] playing a delay game when you're [05:29] negotia- if you're going to negotiate [05:30] with them [05:32] which again I [05:34] you know, I'm not in favor of [05:35] negotiations. I'm just saying if you're [05:36] going to negotiate with them, the only [05:38] way to prevent them [05:40] from playing the delay game is to [05:41] continue to attack them while you're [05:43] negotiating. [05:45] It's the only thing that puts pressure [05:46] on them [05:47] and it undoes their the whole concept of [05:50] negotiations as a stall tactic. Meaning [05:53] I'm not even saying that that continuing [05:54] to strike them, you should continue to [05:56] strike them for the sake of striking [05:57] them. I'm saying even if you're use if [05:59] your whole point in striking is to use [06:01] it as a tool [06:02] in negotiations, [06:04] then you should continue striking while [06:06] you're negotiating and say you're only [06:07] going to negotiate under fire. [06:10] That's that's my that's my view. Anyway, [06:14] um [06:15] In what has become a regular pattern, [06:17] Trump last week threatened to hit Iran [06:18] very hard potentially with attacks [06:20] against civilian infrastructure only to [06:21] pull back [06:22] hinting a deal was near. Iran's foreign [06:25] ministry has denied negotiations with [06:26] Washington [06:28] even as Trump insisted they were [06:30] happening. [06:31] Early on Tuesday, Britain's maritime [06:33] security agency UKMTO said an unmanned [06:37] cargo vessel [06:39] had been struck by an unknown projectile [06:41] in the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of [06:43] Oman. [06:44] This is yesterday. [06:45] So they're negotiating [06:48] meaning they're forcing us to negotiate [06:50] under fire. They're continuing to strike [06:51] vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. We [06:53] should be we should be forcing them to [06:54] negotiate under fire as well. [06:57] Iran continues to impose an effective [06:59] blockade on the Strait and insists ships [07:01] coordinate crossings with it. [07:03] The disruptions in Hormuz have only [07:05] placed greater importance in shipping [07:06] lanes through the Red Sea where [07:08] Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have [07:11] declared a maritime blockade in Saudi [07:13] Arabia. [07:14] That's another way they're negotiating. [07:16] They're forcing us to negotiate under [07:18] fire. They're they're tightening the the [07:22] the grip or their their their [07:24] disruptions. They're intensifying their [07:26] disruptions. That's the right word [07:28] on global shipping lanes wherever they [07:30] can. [07:33] The Saudi Red Red Sea port of Yanbu, [07:35] we've talked about that in a number of [07:36] videos. The the the the the Red Sea port [07:39] of of that's Saudi Arabia, that's on the [07:41] western side of Saudi Arabia, where [07:43] where the end which is the western end [07:46] of Saudi Arabia's east-west oil [07:48] pipeline. [07:50] And so, that's how the Saudis are [07:51] bypassing Hormuz. So, the Saudi Red Sea [07:53] port of Yanbu has enabled it to keep up [07:56] shipments to global markets by [07:57] circumventing Hormuz entirely. But, [08:00] since the Houthis announced their [08:01] blockade, they have claimed attacks on [08:03] multiple ships they say are in [08:05] violation. On Tuesday, the Indian ship [08:07] MSV Faiz Noor Olia sank in the Red Sea [08:11] off Yemen following an unattributed [08:14] attack with all of its crew rescued. [08:18] The Red Sea is a gateway to the Suez [08:20] Canal. In a previous campaign of Houthi [08:22] attacks on commercial vessels during the [08:24] Gaza war, forced shippers to instead [08:26] take lengthy detours around the southern [08:28] tip of Africa. By the way, an issue that [08:31] we haven't talked enough about, maybe I [08:32] should make a separate video about it, [08:34] is the damage that this entire war from [08:36] the very beginning has had on the [08:38] Egyptian economy. Because Egypt depends [08:41] so heavily on traffic through the Suez [08:43] Canal for its economy. And traffic [08:45] through And that traffic has [08:47] been greatly curtailed since October [08:50] 7th. [08:52] And the Egyptian economy is suffering [08:54] terribly from it. [08:56] We should you know, I I should discuss [08:58] that in another video. Uh one more [09:00] report on this from western media is the [09:03] New York Times, "An emerging deal could [09:05] cement Iran's control of Strait of [09:06] Hormuz." And this just added a few [09:08] points that I thought were important. [09:11] Iran and Oman are closing on an [09:12] agreement. [09:14] Um [09:15] So, so for the beginning of this is is [09:17] pretty similar to everything that we [09:18] saw. [09:19] Iranian officials said that while there [09:21] be no tolls charged, the agreement [09:23] includes a service fee to cover the [09:25] environmental impact of shipping, [09:27] security for the cargo ships and [09:29] tankers, and staffing. Why do you need [09:31] to pay for security? But, even so, even [09:34] Look, it's It's international waterway. [09:36] We'll we'll get into that in a bit. [09:38] Revenues would would be divided equally [09:40] between Iran and Oman, two Iranian [09:42] officials said, but a US official [09:43] familiar with the negotiations said on [09:45] Monday that the Iranian account was not [09:47] accurate and said that any temporary [09:49] routes established through the strait [09:50] would not involve approvals and [09:52] permission by Iran and would involve no [09:54] tolls, meaning there should be no fees. [09:56] For President Trump, the deal if if it [09:58] happened could address his most urgent [10:00] political problem, [10:02] allowing ships to flow again. For their [10:05] part, Iranian officials said the strait [10:06] would remain closed despite any [10:08] agreement and the US lift until the US [10:11] lifts its naval blockade against Iranian [10:13] ports in the Persian Gulf and both [10:15] countries return to the 14-point plan [10:17] laid out by the Islamabad Memorandum of [10:19] Understanding. Of course, the Iranians [10:20] want to return to the 14-point plan. [10:22] It's great for them. [10:24] The US could ease the market pressure [10:26] even further, some officials said, if it [10:27] decided to issue exemptions on sanctions [10:30] against Iran so we could legally sell [10:33] and deliver oil. You see, [10:35] um [10:37] here's the deal. [10:38] The Americans [10:40] have an interest, obviously, and we're [10:43] rooting for this, [10:44] in tightening the economic noose around [10:47] Iran's neck. [10:49] On the other hand, the Americans also [10:50] want the Strait of Hormuz opened and [10:52] they also want oil to flow and you could [10:54] ease market pressures by allowing Iran [10:56] to sell its oil. On the other hand, if [10:58] you allow Iran to sell its oil, then [11:00] you're allowing Iran to have money, [11:02] which only perpetuates the problem. [11:05] Besides the fact that any deal here that [11:08] concedes the point that Iran has some [11:11] measure of [11:12] of legitimate sovereignty over the [11:14] Strait of Hormuz is disastrous [11:17] and uh you know, this is this is where [11:19] Marco Rubio's statements [11:21] uh [11:22] are are relevant, which is coming right [11:25] here. [11:26] Ultimately, if Iran asserts continued [11:27] control over the passageway, the opening [11:29] might come with a geopolitical cost. [11:32] Iranian officials say they're designing [11:33] the accord to ratify their capacity to [11:36] control the strait and therefore retain [11:38] strategic leverage that they did not [11:40] employ before the war. Such restrictions [11:42] would directly violate the goal set by [11:44] Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has [11:46] repeatedly in recent months [11:48] who has said repeatedly in recent months [11:49] that the strait must return to the kind [11:51] of open waterway that it was before the [11:53] United States and Israel attacked Iran [11:56] on February 28th. Quote, "If we create a [11:58] precedent in the Middle East where any [11:59] nation state can decide that they're [12:01] going to control an international [12:03] waterway, [12:05] charge a toll, and if you don't pay [12:07] them, blow up your ships, we've created [12:08] a very dangerous precedent which will [12:10] repeat itself in other parts of the [12:12] world. [12:13] What is at stake here is not simply the [12:15] issue of what is happening in the [12:16] Straits of Hormuz, it's a it's a [12:17] fundamental principle about freedom of [12:19] navigation. [12:21] The rules which have underpinned 150 [12:23] years of international trade and [12:25] commerce are also threatened, and that [12:27] cannot be allowed to happen. This is the [12:30] This is the problem with this entire the [12:31] entire premise of these negotiations. [12:33] Trump wants the straits opened, [12:35] and any concession he makes concedes a [12:37] point that could be dangerous elsewhere [12:39] in the world. [12:40] But getting the strait reopened is vital [12:42] for Mr. Trump politically, and so [12:43] despite Rubio's statement, the [12:45] administration appears to be preparing [12:47] the world for a reopening in which Iran [12:49] exerts daily control over traffic. [12:53] "You'll find out today or tomorrow," [12:54] Trump said. [12:56] Um yet inside the Pentagon, some senior [12:59] officials appear sk- skeptical of the [13:00] emerging Omani-Iranian arrangement, [13:03] according to current and former [13:04] officials who have been briefed on the [13:06] concerns. [13:08] Some worry that it amounts to [13:09] capitulation to the Iranians. They note [13:11] that on the route from the Gulf through [13:13] the strait via Oman's waters, there are [13:15] still many mines, and ships would need [13:17] to coordinate with Iran to navigate it [13:19] safely. [13:21] You see, [13:25] you see [cough] [13:26] >> [clears throat] [13:26] >> you see Iran lays mines, [13:29] and then you have to coordinate with [13:30] them to navigate the mines and they can [13:32] say that they need to charge you for [13:34] navigation fees and for safety all [13:37] because of the of the mines that they [13:38] set. [13:39] United States Central Command has been [13:41] guiding ships through the route but they [13:42] are also under Iranian missile threat. [13:45] President Trump has twice in 2 weeks [13:47] called off a plan by Admiral Brad Cooper [13:50] head of Central Command for a short [13:52] intense bombardment of the Iranian sites [13:54] where those attacks originate and other [13:57] military targets but Mr. Trump has made [13:58] no secret of his intense desire to [14:00] reopen traffic in the strait [14:02] even if that means some kind of fee [14:04] structure [14:06] and some level of Iranian control. This [14:08] is dangerous. This is a dangerous game [14:10] making these concessions. [14:12] Iran has said that the US violated the [14:14] peace plan when it directed ships to go [14:16] from the southern coast of the strait [14:18] near Oman. [14:21] The language in the agreement was vague [14:23] on who controls the strait but then Iran [14:25] also violated the plan and reopened fire [14:28] on ships that were transiting the Gulf [14:29] without its permission. [14:31] Or did they? Let's take a look again [14:34] at the at the 20 at the 14-point [14:36] memorandum clause five. This is the [14:38] clause that is about the Strait of [14:40] Hormuz. Let's take a look at it. Upon [14:42] the signing of this MOU the Islamic [14:44] Republic of Iran This is the June 17th [14:46] famous MOU. [14:48] The Islamic Republic of Iran will make [14:50] arrangements using its best efforts for [14:52] the safe passage of commercial vessels [14:55] with no charge. It will make its It will [14:57] make arrangements using its best efforts [15:02] for the safe passage of commercial [15:03] vessels. How about just [15:05] You know what you know what would be a [15:06] great arrangement? Just don't do [15:08] anything and it's not your waterway and [15:10] just let everyone [15:12] pass through. So this is already there [15:15] in the in the language of saying that [15:17] Iran will make arrangements using its [15:19] best efforts [15:21] uh for commercial vessels to pass [15:23] through free of charge for 60 days only. [15:27] Conceding that after 60 days they could [15:30] they could resume charging or [15:33] make different arrangements. [15:35] From the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman [15:36] and vice versa, the traffic of [15:37] commercial vessels will immediately [15:38] start. And considering the need for [15:40] removing technical and military [15:42] obstacles, [15:43] the and demining by the Islamic Republic [15:45] of Iran will start within 30 days. The [15:46] Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct [15:48] dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman to [15:51] define the future administration and [15:53] maritime services in the Strait of [15:54] Hormuz. [15:56] This concedes that they have some [16:00] some sovereignty and control over it. [16:02] And look, especially the way the way the [16:03] sentence ends, take a look at the rest [16:05] of it. [16:07] Okay, so they're going to they're going [16:07] to conduct dialogue with Oman to define [16:10] the future administration [16:12] of the Strait of Hormuz in discussion [16:14] with other Persian Gulf littoral states [16:16] in line with the applicable [16:18] international law and sovereign rights [16:20] of coastal states of the Strait of [16:23] Hormuz. Now, you can interpret that [16:25] different ways. You can say, "Well, your [16:26] sovereign rights don't allow you to [16:27] control an international waterway." But [16:30] they're seeing that as a concession that [16:31] control over the Strait of Hormuz is [16:33] part of their sovereign rights. It's not [16:35] a bad reading of this clause, and that's [16:36] part of what made this MOU so dangerous. [16:40] You see, the way these deal makers, like [16:41] Kushner Kushner, we've seen this before [16:44] with the Gaza plan and other things, [16:46] the way they write deals is they try to [16:48] they try to keep things as ambiguous as [16:51] possible to get the other side to agree [16:52] so they can say, "We have a deal." But [16:54] that actually creates all sorts of [16:57] problems. We saw this in the Gaza plan [16:59] with the disarming of Hamas. When you [17:01] take these difficult issues, these the [17:02] most important issues, and you write [17:05] them in this ambiguous way, [17:07] you just you just make the problems [17:09] worse down the road, and that's what [17:11] we're seeing right now. [17:12] Um let's just see how the Iranians are [17:14] reacting to this. This is Tasnim, the [17:16] IRGC-aligned [17:18] news agency from today. This was [17:20] actually posted just about an hour and a [17:21] half ago when I'm recording this this [17:23] morning on Wednesday. Source: US [17:25] interferes delaying Iran-Oman deal on [17:28] Strait of Hormuz. Speaking to Sepah [17:30] News, an informed source said the [17:32] primary reason for the delay in the [17:34] agreement with Oman on the Strait of [17:35] Hormuz is US interference and Trump's [17:38] threats. As long as US interference and [17:40] threats of military action against Iran [17:42] continue, the agreement will remain [17:44] delayed, the source said. [17:46] The informed source emphasized that Iran [17:48] will not conclude any agreement under [17:49] the shadow of threats. [17:51] I I So, I said a few minutes ago in this [17:53] video, right? I said [17:56] that [17:57] we should be negotiating while also [17:59] firing at them, force them to negotiate [18:01] under fire. [18:03] And they see that they're not [18:04] negotiating under fire, so this [18:06] emboldens them, and they go even a step [18:08] further [18:09] and say, "We're not even going to make [18:10] it you know, Trump is so desperate to [18:12] get the straits opened, you better stop [18:14] threatening us." Because they know that [18:16] the way Americans work and the way [18:18] Westerners work is that if they can get [18:20] Trump to back off on threats, [18:22] then the likelihood that he will attack [18:24] them [18:25] goes down significantly because [18:28] Westerners tend [18:30] to be more [18:32] uh they have to keep their word more. [18:34] Um [18:35] you know, and this and this just backs [18:37] them off even more. You see the way the [18:38] Iranians play. No matter what position [18:41] they're in, they always push for the [18:42] next move. So, they already are have [18:44] gotten uh you know, Trump to stop the [18:46] attacks, and now they're now they're [18:48] saying that he has to stop the threats [18:50] altogether. Spokesperson for the Iranian [18:53] Foreign Ministry, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, [18:55] said that the negotiations are focused [18:57] on establishing safe shipping routes [19:00] while safeguarding their sovereign [19:01] rights. [19:02] Um [19:07] And then the rest of it is pretty much [19:08] the same. [19:10] Okay. Now, the last thing I want to show [19:12] you is just a short clip just about uh a [19:14] couple minutes [19:16] of a conversation between Larry Kudlow [19:18] and Jack Keane [19:20] about deal making with Iran in general, [19:22] and General Keane makes a very important [19:25] point. [19:27] Um [19:28] a very important point that we could do [19:29] a whole video on this point alone, [19:32] but it's really it's really critical to [19:34] how we view this whole thing. [19:36] So, let's take a look. [19:37] >> He's looking at the options, and you [19:39] know, he's the He's the commander in [19:40] chief, so that's that's what he That's [19:43] what he has to do, and and and I think [19:45] he does his statecraft very, very well. [19:48] But, the one concern I have, General [19:50] Keane, [19:51] I don't want I mean, in a in in a [19:53] perfect world or whatever, no money for [19:56] Iran, whether it's tolls or service [19:59] fees, or we open up the naval blockade [20:03] and let them sell oil again, or you [20:06] know, Scott Bessent, who has done such a [20:08] great job [20:10] as a, you know, wartime Treasury [20:12] Secretary with all these sanctions, [20:15] I don't want Iran to have any money [20:17] because they'll use their money to [20:19] rearm. That's my point. I mean, I want [20:21] the open seas and the open navigation, [20:23] you know, that's in naval lore, but I [20:26] don't want them to have any I want to [20:28] starve them of financial resources, you [20:30] know? I mean, I'd like to see you and [20:33] Scott Bessent do the negotiation for the [20:35] United States of America on the military [20:37] and the economy. I don't They'll rearm. [20:39] That's my biggest worry, sir. [20:43] >> Well, Larry, you and I have talked about [20:45] this for months. [20:47] Even if we got the perfect deal, met all [20:50] of President Trump's [20:51] ob- [20:53] objectives that he's trying to achieve [20:54] here, the truth is, we would have to [20:57] help refinance them. [20:59] That would be part of that deal, and as [21:01] such, they would recover in time, [21:04] and they would return to all of the [21:07] objectives that they started out with 47 [21:09] years ago. They would continue to be a [21:11] menace in the region not with this [21:14] administration, but with subsequent [21:16] administrations. And that's why I've [21:18] always been opposed to the deal even if [21:21] it was perfect. I I think let's assume [21:26] there is a deal here. We cannot do what [21:29] we did with the memorandum of [21:31] understanding and remove sanctions [21:33] immediately. I totally agree with [21:35] >> You're right. [21:35] >> No money, no funding, no release of [21:38] unfrozen assets, no none of that. That [21:41] has to be kicked down the road and we [21:43] have to absolutely see some fundamental [21:47] change in Iran's behavior. And it's not [21:50] just those two things before we give the [21:52] money. Restriction on ballistic [21:53] missiles, no support for proxies are the [21:56] other two major issues here as well. [21:59] That's not on the table here for this [22:01] construction. But before we give up [22:02] money, it should they should be [22:05] >> You have said this from day one. [22:07] Okay, I thought that [22:10] that this when I saw this clip, I was [22:12] like, "Wow, that is such an important [22:15] point." And we've kind of forgotten [22:17] about it in the course of all of the all [22:19] of the negotiations in the back and [22:20] forth over the last few months. Listen [22:22] to what General Keane just said. [22:24] He said, "Even if you got a perfect [22:26] deal. Perfect deal meaning that all of [22:28] the objectives that President Trump laid [22:30] out for this war were totally met. [22:33] It would involve [22:36] opening up financing [22:40] for the reconstruction of Iran. It would [22:42] involve significant economic relief for [22:45] them. [22:46] And if they remain in power [22:49] these gangsters [22:50] if they remain in power, it means that [22:52] they will rebuild. They will [22:56] they'll go back. It could it they could [22:58] wait till Trump's out of office. [23:00] But that's what's going to happen. [23:02] In other words, [23:04] and here's here's here's why. Let let me [23:06] just drill down a little bit further on [23:07] this. [23:10] The objectives that Trump laid out for [23:11] this war [23:13] four objectives on day one and then a [23:15] fifth objective was added later. Right, [23:17] the four objectives laid out on day one [23:19] were destroy their navy, [23:21] destroy their nuclear program, [23:24] their ability to have a nuclear weapon, [23:26] destroy their ballistic missile [23:28] capability, [23:30] and destroy their ability to fund their [23:32] proxy network, their terrorist proxy [23:33] network. [23:35] And then opening up the Strait of Hormuz [23:37] became a fifth objective of everything [23:38] that's happening because the Iranians [23:40] closed the strait [23:42] shortly after the war began. Okay. [23:45] So what he's saying is this. Let's say [23:47] you had a deal [23:49] that gave you all of that. [23:53] Now, short of getting all of that, you [23:54] haven't achieved your objectives. You [23:56] can't allow them to keep having their [23:57] proxy network. You can't allow them to [23:59] have the ballistic missiles, not just [24:01] because you laid it out as an objective, [24:02] but also the Gulf states have made it [24:04] very clear that they will not [24:06] you know, they were really upset after [24:07] the MOU that the ballistic missile [24:09] program was not included in it. [24:11] You can't you can't allow them to have a [24:13] nuclear program. You may you have to [24:15] achieve your objectives. [24:17] But if you're going to make a deal, [24:18] meaning if [24:20] let me say it this way. [24:22] There's only two ways to get there, [24:24] to get to those objectives. [24:26] Theoretically, theoretically, there's [24:27] only two ways to get to those [24:29] objectives. [24:30] These guys remain in power in the regime [24:33] and agree to those things, [24:35] which is the possibilities are highly [24:38] unlikely, but that's we're talking [24:39] theoretically. [24:40] Either they agree to those things while [24:42] remaining in power, or they don't remain [24:44] in power and we have regime change. [24:46] There's only two ways to get there. [24:48] So if we're talking about a negotiated [24:51] way of getting there, [24:53] obviously that means that they they need [24:55] to get something in the negotiation. If [24:57] they're surrendering everything [25:00] in the negotiation and this isn't [25:01] unconditional surrender where they've [25:03] just surrendered and surrendered [25:05] everything and that's it because they [25:06] lost, which is not what this is. [25:08] If they're giving up all those things, [25:10] the proxies, the ballistic, the nuclear, [25:11] right? If they're giving it opening the [25:13] Straits of Hormuz. If they're doing [25:14] that, [25:15] what are they getting in They have to [25:17] get something in return. And the only [25:18] thing they could They're they will be [25:20] getting in return [25:22] is financial relief. [25:25] So So Jack Keane is saying, "There's no [25:27] deal that I would accept." He said, [25:29] "Even if it's perfect." That was the [25:31] language he used. "Even if it's perfect, [25:33] I wouldn't accept a deal because it [25:35] involves re- financing the regime and [25:37] and and ensuring that they're going to [25:38] remain in power for the future and [25:39] they're going to play a long game and [25:41] they'll wait however long it takes until [25:42] Trump is out of office or whatever [25:45] and they'll start rebuilding. [25:48] And they'll continue to be a bad actor. [25:51] So that's a very important point to [25:52] remember. There's no such thing as an [25:54] acceptable deal. It's not just that like [25:56] we want a good deal. There's no such [25:57] thing as a good deal with these guys. [26:00] And that is the lesson that Trump is [26:02] very slowly hopefully learning. [26:05] There is simply no such thing as a good [26:06] deal. [26:07] We need to keep that in mind as we look [26:09] ahead as we as we watch how all of this [26:11] unfolds. [26:13] All right. I hope you found this [26:14] helpful. Hope you found it informative. [26:16] Please like, share, subscribe. Just [26:18] share this with one person who you think [26:20] it's useful. Tell them what's going on [26:21] in this channel, what we're doing here. [26:23] And thank you very much for watching. [26:25] Please drop a comment. Let me know what [26:27] you thought. [26:28] I I do read the comments. I read a lot [26:30] of them. I spend time every day reading [26:31] comments and I really do appreciate [26:33] everything that you guys say and I take [26:35] your advice when people have made [26:37] suggestions. [26:38] So keep watching. All right. God bless.
