Transcript [00:00] Help our listeners understand what is [00:02] going on in Iran and the Strait of [00:04] Hormuz and the unfolding there is a [00:07] supposed ceasefire. That's not really [00:09] the case, which is often the case with [00:11] the wars within the Middle East. What is [00:13] taking place and are Israel and the US [00:15] really in sync in this war against Iran [00:18] or or how do you think this is going to [00:19] play out? [00:20] >> Okay, [snorts] that's a lot of questions [00:21] there. Let's unpack this. No, there's a [00:23] lot to unpack. [00:26] Okay, so let's start with your last [00:27] question, which is are [00:29] is the US are the US and Israel totally [00:32] in sync? [00:33] And [00:34] you know, there's it's very [00:36] we're very fond since February 28th [00:39] since the launch of this war of thinking [00:40] of the United States and Israel as [00:42] shoulder to shoulder, totally aligned, [00:44] working together as one military. And [00:46] that's how the Israelis were talking [00:47] about it. That's how Secretary of War [00:49] Hagel was talking about it at the [00:50] beginning. [00:51] But I was kind of throwing cold water on [00:53] that in a number of media appearances I [00:55] made and some articles that I wrote. I [00:56] pointed this out. I said, "Whoa, whoa, [00:57] whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, hold on a [00:58] second. It's great that that we're that [01:01] we're cooperating right now that the two [01:03] greatest air forces in the world are [01:04] working together. That's awesome. [01:07] But [01:08] President Trump is not the president of [01:09] the state of Israel. He's the president [01:11] of the United States of America. And his [01:12] and his concern is for American [01:14] interests and it would be terribly naive [01:16] of us to think that US interests and [01:19] Israeli interests are not going to [01:21] diverge at some point. That we simply do [01:23] not have the same interests here. [01:26] And and I I said this even before the [01:28] war started in the run-up to it. [01:30] I said this in a number of a number of [01:32] interviews I did [01:34] that at some point there will be this [01:36] fork in the road where our interests [01:37] will not align. And we just have to be [01:39] clear-eyed and prepared for it and just [01:40] understand it's it's going to happen. [01:42] Now, are we seeing that happen now? It [01:44] could be. Could be that we are. We'll [01:46] see. We'll see where it goes. You know, [01:47] President Trump's unpredictability [01:50] is actually a doctrine and it's [01:52] something that a lot of people don't [01:53] know. [01:54] I'll get to the Strait of Hormuz in a [01:55] moment. I just want to set the table, [01:57] Stephen. [01:58] >> Yeah. [01:58] >> Back in 2016, when President Trump was [02:01] running for president the first time, he [02:03] wasn't even the nominee yet. He hadn't [02:05] even the the convention hadn't happened. [02:06] He wasn't even the nominee. He was just [02:08] one one person, [02:10] you know, one celebrity running for [02:11] president. And this is in April 2016, he [02:14] gave his first foreign policy speech. [02:17] And I remember watching it at the time. [02:20] At the time I watched the foreign policy [02:21] speech. It was on April 27th, 2016. You [02:23] can look it up. [02:25] And there was a lot of curiosity about [02:27] it because everyone knew who Donald [02:28] Trump was, this real estate guy, and he [02:30] was very outspoken. But the one area [02:33] where he had zero [02:35] zero [02:36] qualifications and zero experience was [02:39] of course foreign policy. He was a [02:40] American businessman. So, you want to [02:42] talk about finance, you want to talk [02:43] about monetary policy, you want to talk [02:45] about you know, infrastructure, of [02:47] course he's qualified. But why would he [02:49] be qualified to talk about foreign [02:50] policy? [02:51] And he said he there's this one moment [02:54] in the speech, and it was it was in the [02:56] text of the speech. It wasn't off the [02:57] cuff, which is significant. It was part [02:59] of what he was laying out. He talked [03:01] about the need when dealing with [03:03] adversaries, [03:04] the need for America to become [03:06] unpredictable. And he said the word [03:08] about three or four times in the space [03:09] of about 30 seconds. He said, "We have [03:11] to become unpredictable. We cannot, you [03:13] know, we always telegraph what we're [03:14] doing. We're sending troops. We we have [03:16] a press conference. We announce it. [03:18] We're going to bomb something. We have a [03:19] press conference. We announce it. We [03:20] have to become unpredictable, and we [03:22] have to become unpredictable starting [03:23] now." He said that. And I bring that up [03:26] because even those of us who are in [03:28] favor of President Trump and who like a [03:30] lot of what he's done, we kind of think [03:32] of him as this erratic guy. He's kind of [03:34] all over the place, and he's and and [03:36] maybe he's, you know, got a different [03:38] idea each day that he wakes up. [03:40] That's the way he wants us to perceive [03:43] him. [03:44] But there is nothing There is nothing [03:46] erratic about the man. This is all very [03:48] carefully gamed out in his mind. [03:51] But his unpredictability deliberate. So, [03:54] when you hear him like let's say in the [03:56] lead-up to the war where he's like, "Oh, [03:57] maybe we'll get a deal. Maybe we'll bomb [03:58] them. Maybe we'll get a deal. But, you [03:59] know, if we don't get a deal, it's going [04:00] to be really bad. And, you know, you're [04:02] just constantly like, "Okay, what's he [04:04] signaling here?" And, the answer is he's [04:06] being unpredictable deliberately. [04:08] Okay? So, therefore, analyzing him, and [04:11] I say this as someone who does a lot of [04:12] geopolitical analysis for a living, [04:15] analyzing President Trump is a [04:16] completely different world because of [04:19] this deliberate misdirection plays. [04:22] So, everything has to be in you know, [04:24] with this caveat that it's Trump. And [04:27] and and he's not he doesn't show his [04:29] cards as a matter of course. Okay. Now, [04:31] what's going on in the Strait of Hormuz? [04:32] What's going on in Iran? [04:34] So, if you go back to the beginning of [04:35] the war, on the first day of the war, [04:38] President Trump gave an 8-minute speech [04:40] where he announced that the war was [04:42] happening. [04:43] And, in that speech, he laid out the [04:45] objectives of the war. [04:48] And, he stated four objectives. [04:51] The destruction of their navy, [04:54] the destruction of their ballistic [04:55] missiles, [04:57] the [04:58] uh ending their support for terrorist [05:00] proxies and their network around the [05:02] world, [05:04] and the destruction of their nuclear [05:05] facilities so that they could never have [05:07] a nuclear weapon. [05:08] Those were four, and they were stated as [05:10] objectives. Then, later in the speech, [05:13] while he didn't state it as an [05:14] objective, I would say he stated as an [05:16] aspiration, but the last 2 minutes of [05:18] the speech were all about the liberate [05:21] the the [05:23] that he was coming as a liberator of the [05:25] Iranian people. He said he said, "And to [05:26] the Iranian people, I say the hour of [05:29] your freedom has arrived." You know, and [05:31] that no president has done what I'm [05:32] about to do for you. You've been waiting [05:34] for this moment for 47 years. You might [05:36] remember some of this rhetoric. He went [05:37] on and on like this talking about how [05:39] he's going to give them cover to come [05:41] back out into the streets. [05:43] Okay? [05:44] Now, I I I [05:46] I say this with such precision because I [05:48] re-watched the speech a few days ago [05:50] when this deal was announced. [05:52] Cuz I really felt that we've all been [05:54] kind of dragged along through this [05:57] following the play-by-play and we are [05:59] where we are and we've forgotten where [06:01] we were when we started. [06:03] And I say this [06:04] I'm kind of it kind of depressed me to [06:06] watch it because [06:09] you know [06:11] the proxy if if the deal as it's been [06:13] reported goes through [06:16] there's a lot of consternation in Israel [06:17] about it because if the deal cuz what's [06:21] been reported by Axios, by the New York [06:22] Times, and again this is all with that [06:24] big caveat about Trump that we know that [06:26] there there aspects of the deal that [06:28] have not been made public. We don't [06:29] actually know what's in it, but based on [06:31] what's been reported by Reuters, New [06:32] York Times, Axios so we're pretty and [06:35] also the way Marco Rubio's been talking [06:38] Marco Rubio on his trip to India and [06:40] then on the airplane again was very [06:42] clear about two issues that they care [06:44] about that this deal is really about [06:46] opening the Strait of Hormuz [06:48] and getting the enriched uranium out or [06:51] like the nuclear issue basically. We'll [06:53] call it the nuclear file. There's a [06:54] number of pieces to it. [06:56] And he said when he was in India that [06:59] this has been the president's position [07:00] all along consistently. And I'm sitting [07:02] there thinking really? [07:04] Those are the only two issues we care [07:05] about? If they get all the enriched [07:07] uranium out, if we if we get the Atomic [07:11] Energy [07:12] uh the International Atomic Energy uh [07:14] agency to [07:16] secure it all and we know that they have [07:18] no more nuclear abilities. Let's say we [07:20] got to that point and the Strait of [07:22] Hormuz was totally open, no mines, no [07:25] fear of of any disruptions, it's open [07:28] free shipping. Are we satisfied with [07:30] that outcome? [07:32] The Iranian proxy network is worldwide. [07:35] It's not just funneling cash to [07:37] Hezbollah and the Houthis and Hamas. [07:40] They have a massive drug and human [07:42] trafficking network that runs across [07:44] South America. They have bases in [07:45] Paraguay. They have They have This is a [07:49] an octopus with many, many arms to it. [07:53] And this needs to be dismantled. [07:55] The There will be regional and global [07:58] instability coming out of Tehran so long [08:01] as this regime remains in power in any [08:03] way. What's more What's more [08:06] the the Iranian people [08:09] I mean Trump might say, "Well, you know, [08:11] I gave them the opportunity. I dropped [08:13] the bombs. They could have come out into [08:14] the streets." But no, they couldn't. [08:17] They couldn't have come out into the [08:18] streets. In that portion of that speech [08:20] Trump also spoke He made this dramatic [08:24] statement. He said, "To the members of [08:25] the IRGC, I say lay down your weapons [08:28] and we you will be granted amnesty or [08:30] you will face certain death." And I [08:32] looked at that and I thought, "Whatever [08:33] happened to that?" The IRGC guys are [08:35] still armed. They're still in the [08:37] street. They're still killing people who [08:39] they view as dissidents and they're not [08:41] going away. The fact that that the [08:43] people are starving and that so much has [08:44] been destroyed doesn't change the fact [08:46] that the people are still being [08:47] oppressed and they had no ability to [08:48] come out into the streets. The IRGC was [08:50] not degraded enough to make it safe for [08:53] them to come out into the streets and [08:54] what's more, you might say to yourself, [08:56] "Well, you know, they know that the [08:58] Americans are there and if and if they [08:59] went out into the streets, there's no [09:01] way the regime would start mowing them [09:03] down again because, you know, America [09:05] would have their back." Really? Why [09:07] should I If I'm an Iranian and I see [09:10] President Trump trying desperately to [09:12] cut a deal with Galibaf and Aragchi and [09:16] Vaedi and all the guys who are [09:18] responsible for slaughtering us and he's [09:20] trying to cut a deal. He's trying to do [09:22] a Venezuela model, right? Which means [09:24] that you decapitate the top of the [09:26] regime and you make a deal with the next [09:28] tier down and you keep everything [09:30] orderly and you work with those guys. [09:32] That keeps the criminals who slaughtered [09:35] the Iranian people in power. And if I'm [09:38] a member if I'm one of the people in the [09:39] street, if I'm one of the Iranians who [09:41] wants my freedom and would be willing to [09:43] go out into the street if I knew that [09:45] America had my back, why should I think [09:47] that America has my back if Trump is [09:49] trying to cut a deal with the people [09:51] that I'd be trying to pull down? [09:53] So, I I I think that, you know, we have [09:56] to be very clear-eyed. If Is it the [09:58] American interest to simply deal with [10:00] the nuclear issue, open up the Straits [10:02] of Hormuz, secure those things and get [10:04] out of there? It might very well be. [10:07] This goes back to your question of the [10:08] lockstep between the United States and [10:09] Israel. It because with all of the [10:12] various pressures on President Trump, [10:14] he has oil prices, this war is [10:16] increasingly unpopular for the majority [10:18] of Americans. Uh no one want Most [10:21] Americans do not want to go back to [10:22] kinetic action. They just want to see [10:25] stability, the price of the price of oil [10:27] drop. They don't want Iran to get a [10:29] nuclear weapon. They do buy that. They [10:30] do agree with that. They're reasonable [10:32] about that. So, if Trump can secure the [10:34] nuclear issue, get the Straits of Hormuz [10:36] open, see oil prices drop, and get to [10:39] some sort of managed situation, even if [10:41] it throws the Iranian people under the [10:43] bus, and even if it means that the proxy [10:45] network still is intact, [10:48] if he's satisfied with that, you could [10:49] argue that America for the for the [10:51] duration of the Trump administration got [10:53] what they wanted, and it would be an [10:56] absolute betrayal of the Iranian people [11:00] who've been betrayed many times before [11:01] by Western leaders, and it would also [11:03] not satisfy Israel, which leaves many [11:06] questions open. I'll leave it there and [11:07] we can you can ask a follow-up. [11:09] >> No, there's so many valid points within [11:11] that statement. I mean, just a few weeks [11:12] ago on [11:14] a Sunday a couple of weekends ago in [11:16] London, there was a 20,000 strong [11:18] demonstration support in support of [11:20] Israel [11:21] outside 10 Downing Street, and a quarter [11:24] of those, 5,000 of them were Iranians.
