Transcript [00:00] Well, all signs point to greater [00:04] escalation. [00:06] That's what it that's what it appears is [00:08] happening right now. Uh then we're going [00:11] to go through some headlines that [00:12] indicate that. And we're also going to [00:14] get into the whole question of uh of the [00:17] whole of whether or not we're looking at [00:18] a ground invasion coming. I don't think [00:20] it's I don't think it's the right move [00:22] myself. I think it's actually a bad [00:23] idea. I want to say that at the outset, [00:25] but I'm going to get into what all the [00:26] signals we're seeing are. This is kind [00:28] of a news update. [00:30] uh video. So, let's uh let's hit it. [00:32] Let's get right to it. So, we got some [00:34] video stuff here uh in addition to some [00:38] print articles. Let's see what we got [00:40] here. So, this is uh Trump from uh [00:42] yesterday. [00:45] >> Americans are against [00:50] >> Well, Americans aren't against the war. [00:51] The [00:52] >> a poll a poll just came out. Americans [00:55] don't want high gasoline prices, but [00:57] they're not against the war. That just [00:59] came out loud and clear in a poll. [01:02] >> Nobody wants Iran to have a nuclear [01:03] weapon. Do you want Iran to have a [01:05] nuclear weapon? You think it's good? Go [01:07] ahead. [01:10] >> So that's Trump uh you know pushing [01:12] back. A reporter asked him about [01:14] Americans being against the war and he [01:16] pushed back and said, "No, Americans are [01:17] not against the war. Uh Americans just [01:20] don't want higher gas prices." And then [01:22] this uh this was uh this also is from [01:25] yesterday. Take a look at Trump [01:27] yesterday. [01:29] >> Uh I'll save the energy targets for [01:31] last, but ultimately we'll hit energy [01:34] targets. Yeah. But uh we're going to hit [01:36] them very hard tonight. We're going to [01:38] hit them very hard tomorrow night. We're [01:40] going to hit them very hard the night [01:41] after. And then next week it gets really [01:45] bad for them because next week comes the [01:48] uh power plants. Next week comes the [01:51] bridges. We're gonna knock out all their [01:53] power plants. we're going to knock out [01:54] all their bridges unless they get to the [01:57] table and negotiate. [01:58] >> Now, that that clip was actually from [02:00] last week pointing to this week. And [02:01] sure enough, this is what we're seeing [02:03] this week. And Trump put out a truth [02:05] social post that said, "From this point [02:07] forward, anytime the Islamic Republic of [02:08] Iran shoots at a ship in the street of [02:10] Hormuz, whether by missile, rocket, [02:12] drone, or any other device or weapon, [02:13] the United States will bomb and destroy [02:15] one bridge or one power plant, including [02:17] those located next to or in the the [02:20] capital, [02:22] city of Thrron. Thank you for your [02:24] attention to this matter. And then we [02:27] see this headline here. US reinforces [02:29] Middle East military presence as Trump [02:31] weighs expanding Iran conflict. Wall [02:34] Street Journal reports additional [02:35] troops, aircraft, medical personnel are [02:37] being deployed to give the White House [02:39] broader military options. This is from [02:41] today. The United States is moving [02:43] additional military assets into the [02:45] Middle East as President Trump considers [02:47] broader action against Iran. According [02:49] to the Wall Street Journal, the buildup [02:50] includes special operations personnel, [02:55] special operations personnel, fighter [02:58] jets, aerial refueling aircraft, and [02:59] long-range bombers, the report said, [03:01] citing US officials and people familiar [03:03] with the deployments. B1 bombers [03:05] stationed in Britain have been placed on [03:07] alert, while F-16s from Germany and [03:10] F-35s from England have been sent toward [03:13] the region. Cargo flights have also [03:16] departed US bases used by special [03:18] operations forces. Those units can carry [03:20] out a range of missions including [03:22] combat, search, and rescue. At the same [03:24] time, more than 150 medical personnel [03:27] have been sent to the Land Stol Regional [03:29] Medical Center in Germany, the main [03:31] facility for treating US troops wounded [03:33] in Middle East operations. The US [03:35] already has tens of thousands of troops [03:37] in the region along with two aircraft [03:39] carrier strike groups, 17 naval vessels, [03:41] and a Marine expeditionary unit. [03:43] According to the report, the [03:45] reinforcement comes as Trump intensifies [03:47] his warnings against Thran and weighs [03:50] possible strikes on additional Iranian [03:52] targets. The White House said the [03:53] president always has all his options at [03:55] his disposal. The expanded deployment [03:57] could also give Washington greater [03:59] capacity to respond to Yemen's Iranback [04:02] backed Houthis who have threatened Saudi [04:05] linked shipping and claimed attacks on [04:06] oil tankers in the Red Sea. [04:10] M retired General Joseph Fotell, a [04:12] former commander of US Central Command, [04:14] told the Journal that the buildup is [04:16] intended to give the president and [04:18] defense secretary greater flexibility [04:20] rather than signal that a major [04:22] operation is certain. [04:25] Look, [04:26] I don't think a ground operation is a [04:28] good idea. I'm going to get into that [04:29] more after this clip. I'm going to play [04:31] a clip here. This is Keith Kellogg. Uh [04:34] Keith Kellogg, you know, retired General [04:36] Keith Kellogg. Uh and uh he says some [04:40] things in this clip that I absolutely [04:42] agree with and I think he's thinking in [04:44] the right direction and then he says uh [04:47] and but then he talks about a ground [04:48] invasion. I'll share my thoughts after [04:50] we watch this clip. Let's pull this up. [04:52] Here is a concern I do have for Iran [04:54] though. You have played sports. I've [04:56] played sports. We've watched sports and [04:59] you let a team hang around a baseball [05:01] team in the ninth inning or a football [05:03] team in the fourth quarter where you [05:05] were clearly the better team. you should [05:07] have closed them out in the first [05:08] quarter, not the fourth or the first [05:10] inning, not the ninth inning. And the [05:12] longer they stick around, the more [05:14] dangerous they become. And that's kind [05:15] of where we're at right now. And I think [05:17] the president's going to close it out. [05:18] He [snorts] should close it out. There's [05:19] a few things he should do, I think. One [05:21] is on negotiations. Let's not negotiate. [05:23] I'm not negotiating with these guys. [05:25] We're going to dictate the terms of the [05:27] war, and it is a war that's going on [05:29] right now. We're going to keep taking [05:31] out their leadership. The the the whole [05:33] policy about decapitation. We need to [05:36] continue that. If that means taking out [05:38] Bahiti or Arachi or anybody else like [05:41] that, that's fine because it [05:42] destabilizes the regime. The other part [05:46] because it gives you leverage is I would [05:48] take the islands of Car Island and Lorra [05:51] Island, which is like it's further to [05:52] the east, but it's like the command and [05:54] control center of of the Gulf. And you [05:57] take them to give the president [05:58] leverage. Now I own something you don't [06:01] have anymore. we'll give it back to you [06:03] at the end of this war if you need it or [06:05] we're just going to keep it forever. The [06:07] other thing I think we should be doing [06:08] is look, let's go and if it takes a [06:10] presidential finding or something like [06:12] that, let's start figuring out how we [06:15] can help the Iranian people organize the [06:17] resistance against the theocratic [06:20] regime. We've done it before. We did it [06:21] in Afghanistan. Our troops are really [06:24] good. Our our agency is really good. [06:26] >> Okay. So far, what he said I agree with [06:29] because what he's talking about here is [06:31] what I've been talking about. You've [06:32] been watching this channel and that is [06:35] that the focus on just destroying [06:38] military capabilities, great. Listen, [06:40] destroy their military capabilities. I'm [06:42] fine with that. But it's not the path to [06:45] victory. If the goal is, as Trump says [06:48] all the time, that they cannot have a [06:50] nuclear weapon. If the goal is to have [06:52] the Straits of Vermuse opened, the best [06:55] way to achieve that goal is to [06:58] destabilize the regime, more [07:00] decapitation strikes, more empowering of [07:03] the Iranian people on the ground. [07:06] Because if you bring down the regime, [07:08] and I'm not talking about, you know, [07:10] everyone's afraid of regime change. Oh, [07:12] regime change, regime change. Why are we [07:14] so afraid of it? were afraid of it [07:15] because in the past it meant that the [07:17] Americans go in like in Iraq and try to [07:20] manage the situation. You don't have to [07:22] go in on the ground. [07:24] Will it get messy there? Yes, it will [07:26] get messy. Of course, it will get messy. [07:29] It'll get terribly messy. But that's not [07:33] that's not America's problem. [07:36] Oh, but what do you mean? Like you break [07:38] it, you bought it. You can't bring down [07:39] the regime and then not go clean it up. [07:41] Yes, you can. You know why? Because the [07:43] goal here is to make sure that Iran no [07:47] longer poses a threat. And if it's [07:48] chaotic afterwards, I'm sorry. Those are [07:51] the facts of life. The Iranian people, [07:54] we we care about them. We want them to [07:56] have a better life. But they also [07:58] brought the regime to power in 1979. [08:02] And it's their mess to clean up [08:05] and they want the regime to fall. the [08:08] the there's no reason for us [08:12] for for the US to be focusing only on [08:15] things that don't bring down the regime [08:17] and avoiding regime change. We'll get [08:18] into this more in a bit because what [08:20] because what he's been talking about now [08:21] I totally agree with. I think the focus [08:24] of American action should be on [08:25] destabilizing the regime. [08:28] That's what that's what I think and [08:30] that's what he said up till now and so [08:32] far what he's said I agree with. [08:34] >> Good. And do something like that. You [08:36] can start a province at a time and just [08:38] start to take provinces at a time. And [08:40] if the Iranian people want to have [08:42] freedom, then they need to rise up. [08:43] We're not going to do it for them. And [08:45] by the way, when people talk about [08:47] troops on the ground, that's pretty [08:49] important because I've never seen a war [08:52] won strictly from the air. Look, I was [08:54] in the first Gulf War, Jesse, and we [08:57] bombed for a month and nothing happened. [08:59] It's when we crossed the burm in Kuwait [09:02] in Iraq and we got to Euphrates rivers [09:05] within 48 hours it was a 100hour war. [09:08] They said we we're not going to do this [09:10] anymore. And I think we should do that. [09:12] And the last thing is and I think it's [09:13] important is the president go to the [09:15] American people. They're they want to [09:17] win this thing too. They understand that [09:19] they're doing you're doing this not for [09:21] this generation but for the kids and our [09:24] grandkids. We do not need a nuclear Iran [09:27] in the Middle East. to totally [09:28] destabilize the Middle East. But the the [09:31] people of America, they can understand [09:33] hard talk. They can accept hard talk. I [09:37] think is this this is the time you bring [09:39] the American people with you to close [09:41] this deal out. We haven't gotten there [09:43] yet and we should. [09:44] >> Now, here I just I got to say I'm sorry. [09:48] I disagree with his assessment with his [09:50] assessment of the American people right [09:51] now. I disagree. I don't think that [09:54] there's any appetite whatsoever for [09:57] boots on the ground. No matter what [09:58] speech Trump would give, he is this this [10:01] is a very fragile situation with the [10:02] American people. And I also don't think [10:04] it is necessary. This is not the same [10:07] situation as Iraq. [10:09] Okay, here you have a a massive [10:12] population. We've seen them come out [10:14] into the streets. We didn't see mass [10:15] demonstrations against Saddam Hussein [10:17] destabilizing his regime before America [10:19] went in there. Okay, we know this regime [10:22] is teetering. It is being choked. Keep [10:25] up the economic pressure. Max, max max [10:27] economic pressure. I'm saying ramp it up [10:29] even more. And what they're doing by [10:31] destroying the various uh petrochemical [10:33] industries which bring a lot of money [10:35] in. That's great. Ramp up the economic [10:37] pressure. Close the trade routes from [10:40] Pakistan that are breaking the blockade. [10:42] I know Trump likes to say it's hermetic. [10:44] It's not hermetic. Close the trade roots [10:46] from Pakistan. tighten the noose [10:48] economically and empower the people and [10:50] decapitation strikes, IRGC, besiege [10:54] strongholds. That's what you should be [10:56] hitting, empowering the people. Get [10:58] weapons to the people. But there's no [10:59] reason for American boots on the ground. [11:01] This regime will fall. And when the [11:03] regime falls, you know what happens? The [11:05] straits of her muse get opened. You know [11:06] what happens when the regime falls? [11:08] There's no problem of there's no worry [11:10] of a nuclear program. That's what [11:12] happens. That's what happens when the [11:14] regime falls. So yeah, I don't agree [11:17] with uh with General Kellogg here. Now, [11:20] a couple more notes on this escalation [11:22] that we that we seem to be uh seeing [11:24] here. There's this headline from Iran [11:27] International, which is really just a [11:28] summary of some of the things that [11:30] Secretary of State Rubio said last night [11:33] when talking to reporters uh in uh at [11:36] the at this uh [11:39] um at the Philippine International [11:41] Conference um at the ACN conference. So [11:44] look what he So I'm just going to [11:45] highlight a few things here. Iran not [11:48] ready for a deal. Rubio said he did not [11:50] believe Iran was ready to reach an [11:51] agreement with Washington despite [11:53] repeated indirect messages seeking [11:54] talks. Quote these people are calling us [11:57] every day begging let's do a deal. They [11:59] send us messages through other [12:01] countries, third countries. Rubio said [12:03] the problem is every time these people [12:05] do a deal they either break it or after [12:07] they make it they want to change the [12:09] deal. I don't think they're serious [12:11] about making a deal. you said adding, I [12:13] think they'll be ready soon because the [12:15] price they're paying is very high. [12:17] I don't agree. Listen, the price they're [12:21] paying is very high. What does that [12:22] mean? Because because we look at it and [12:23] say, "Wow, we're destroying so much of [12:25] their infrastructure." That is not going [12:27] to bring them to the table. [12:30] No matter how destroyed Iran is, those [12:32] people at the top, they're still eating. [12:36] They don't care how bad life gets for [12:38] their people. All they care about is [12:39] remaining in power. And destroying [12:41] infrastructure, destroying military [12:43] installations does not dislodge them [12:45] from power. So long as there's an IRGC [12:46] and there's a besiege that have weapons [12:48] and they could they could murder the [12:50] people and suppress the people, they [12:52] will not. And but you know what? Look, [12:56] I'm going to put this in one in a simple [12:58] in a simple sentence. [13:02] They don't want a deal. They want [13:05] negotiations. [13:07] They love negotiations. They want [13:10] negotiations to go on forever. So when [13:12] they call and say they want a deal, [13:14] what's what they really want is to [13:16] negotiate. They don't want a deal. They [13:19] want to restart negotiations because if [13:21] negotiations start, then the bombing [13:23] stops and they get to do the dance again [13:26] and prolong things and get closer to the [13:28] midterms and and buy time and kick the [13:30] can down the road and they're and [13:31] they're back in their that's where [13:33] they're strongest. They know that in the [13:34] negotiating room they win. [13:37] They don't want a deal. I want someone [13:39] to say that. I want one of these like [13:41] Marco Rubio say they want negotiations. [13:44] They don't want a deal. When they call [13:46] and say they want a deal, it's because [13:47] they want to negotiate. [13:49] Rubio said Iran had suffered extensive [13:51] military and economic damage. They're [13:52] losing launchers. They're losing radar [13:54] every single night. They're suffering [13:56] billions of dollars in damage. And their [13:57] economy is a disaster. Despite Iran's [14:00] rhetoric, Rubio said they're suffering [14:01] tremendously and they're going to suffer [14:03] more until they come to their senses. [14:04] they will not come to their senses and [14:06] it's good the economic disaster is good [14:09] but it's not going to bring them to it's [14:10] not going to bring them to make a deal [14:11] that you want [14:14] hopefully it'll bring to the collapse of [14:15] the regime and then look at this [14:17] beautiful warning asked about Iranian [14:19] foreign minister Abasari's remarks [14:21] invoking an eye for an eye because [14:24] Abasari the foreign minister of Iran [14:26] said that Iran's approach to American [14:28] aggression is an eye for an eye rubio [14:30] said the president's policy is a head [14:32] for an eye they will pay a very heavy [14:34] price for things they're doing. They're [14:36] already paying a very heavy price. He [14:37] said Iran's industrial and defense [14:39] industrial bases have been decimated and [14:41] said Thran would continue to pay a price [14:43] for its actions. [14:45] But [14:47] he said something else here that I want [14:48] to find. [14:51] He was talking about regime change. Did [14:54] I miss it here? Here it is. Look at [14:56] this. I didn't highlight it. Should I [15:00] highlight it? Here we go. [15:02] Let's highlight it. just so that it [15:04] looks right. Rubio said the Trump [15:06] administration's goal was a [15:07] denuclearized Iran, not regime change. [15:11] I think the US is seeking a duc a [15:13] denuclearized Iran that will never have [15:14] a nuclear weapon. You know, the only way [15:17] to get to a a an Iran that will never [15:20] try to get a nuclear weapon. Regime [15:22] change. Our issue and our concern and [15:24] our focus is denuclearizing Iran. They [15:26] can never have a nuclear weapon. asked [15:27] whether Washington was comfortable [15:28] leaving Iran's current leadership in [15:30] power. Rubio said they can never have a [15:32] nuclear weapon. He also rejected [15:34] suggestions that Trump had made regime [15:35] change an objective of the conflict. I I [15:38] want to be very clear. I sound like oh [15:40] oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh [15:40] oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh [15:40] oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh [15:40] oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh [15:40] oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh you know R Rabbi [15:41] Wiki is you know Pes will wicki wants [15:43] regime change. I don't want regime [15:45] change because I I want America to get [15:47] involved in regime change. I'm saying [15:49] the only way to achieve the objectives [15:50] that you're setting out, no nuclear [15:52] weapon, open straits of Hormuz, the only [15:54] way to achieve those objectives is [15:56] regime change. The only way to achieve [15:59] the objective of no funding for proxies, [16:00] no international terror network is [16:02] regime change. So it's not that you have [16:04] to get involved. This isn't Iraq or you [16:07] know reg Iraq style regime change. You [16:09] don't have to get in there and manage [16:10] it. You don't have to have boots on the [16:11] ground, but it's the it's the it's the [16:14] swiftest way to achieve the objectives [16:17] America wants to achieve. He never said [16:19] regime change was a goal. [16:22] We're going to degrade their missile [16:23] launchers, their drones, their [16:25] factories, their navy. [16:28] Okay. And finally, here's an indication, [16:32] maybe an indication of escalation, or [16:34] maybe it's just the British finally [16:35] waking up. Britain withdraws remaining [16:38] diplomats from Iran. This is from today. [16:41] Check this out. Britain said on July [16:42] 23rd it had withdrawn remaining [16:44] diplomatic staff from Iran as the [16:46] conflict between Iran and the United [16:47] States escalates. Due to the security [16:48] situation, UK staff have been [16:50] temporarily withdrawn from Iran. Our [16:52] embassy continues to operate remotely, [16:54] the foreign office said on its website. [16:57] Britain in June withdrew its embassy [16:59] staff from Iran following the footsteps [17:01] of other European nations as well as [17:03] Australia and New Zealand. The [17:04] withdrawals came after Israel launched [17:07] uh renewed air strikes on Iran, claiming [17:09] its arch enemy was on the verge of [17:10] developing a nuclear weapon. [17:15] Um and that was back then. The foreign [17:18] office declined to say how many staff [17:20] had been withdrawn after a similar move [17:21] in February. [17:25] If you're a British national already in [17:26] Iran, either resident or visitor, [17:29] carefully consider your presence there [17:30] and and the risks you take by staying. [17:32] Okay. Now, this obviously begs the [17:34] question, why on earth did they still [17:36] have diplomats in Iran? So, I checked, I [17:40] looked into this, and it turns out that [17:41] no other Western nation has anyone left [17:44] there. The Germans, uh, you know, the [17:46] other European nations, they've all [17:47] withdrawn their personnel from Iran a [17:49] long time ago. UK was kind of last on [17:50] the list, but this announcement came [17:52] today. Is that an indication of further [17:55] escalation? I don't know. Maybe, maybe [17:58] not. Uh but clearly they they see that [18:00] it's time to get on, you know, to get [18:02] out of out of Thran finally. [18:05] Uh so that's where things stand. Are we [18:07] headed for a ground invasion like Keith [18:09] Kellogg wants? I I don't know. I I think [18:13] it would be a mistake. I think there [18:14] will be a lot of uh loss loss of [18:17] American servicemen which will cause an [18:19] uproar in America and it won't [18:21] necessarily achieve the goals unless [18:24] you're actually willing to bring down [18:25] the regime. And if Trump keeps saying [18:27] and Rubio keeps saying the goal isn't [18:28] regime change, think of what they're [18:30] doing now. They're hitting petrochemical [18:31] sites. They're hitting a I made a video [18:35] uh earlier about the different sites [18:36] they're hitting. They're hitting [18:37] military installations. They're hitting [18:39] the petrochemical industry. They're [18:41] hitting uh bridges. They're hitting [18:43] other infrastructure. The one thing that [18:45] they're staying away from hitting is the [18:47] IRGC. [18:50] Why? instead of destroying bridges and [18:52] prochemical sites, just hit every IRGC [18:57] checkpoint and every IRGC base like [18:59] Israel was doing back in March. That was [19:01] causing defections and that's the [19:04] destabilization of the regime. That's [19:06] where it happens. Anyway, that's my take [19:08] and I'm sticking to it. Maybe I'm [19:10] repeating myself, but there's a reason. [19:12] There's a reason I'm repeating myself. I [19:14] think this is where we are. that the [19:16] this this like a this allergy that the [19:21] Americans have to saying regime change. [19:22] You see Rubio so emphatic. No, no, no, [19:24] no, no, no, no. Anything but regime [19:26] change. We're going to destroy [19:27] everything, but we're not going to take [19:28] down the regime. That's not our goal. It [19:30] it's because of it. It's obviously a [19:32] reflection of something in the American [19:34] public opinion that people are afraid if [19:36] that's a goal because of some trauma of [19:39] past regime changes that didn't go well. [19:41] That doesn't that doesn't mean that you [19:43] have to do it that way. Just because [19:45] regime changes went badly, that doesn't [19:47] mean regime collapse can't be a goal, [19:50] not because you care about collapsing [19:52] the regime, but that because you care [19:54] about the Straits of Hormuz being opened [19:55] and you care about there not being a [19:57] nuclear program and you care about them [19:58] not having a ballistic missile program [20:00] that threatens their Arab neighbors and [20:02] [snorts] who who who were emphatic that [20:04] they were who were upset about theou [20:06] because the ballistic missile program [20:08] wasn't, you know, dismantling that [20:10] wasn't in there and dismantling the [20:12] proxy network wasn't in there. They were [20:13] upset about that. That's what happened [20:15] at the conference in the Gulf that that [20:17] Rubio [20:18] held with them right after theou was [20:21] signed to clean up the mess because they [20:22] were still upset. All of these issues [20:25] all of these issues are solved in one [20:28] fell swoop if the regime collapses [20:32] and you don't have to go in and run it. [20:36] It's I'm just arguing for the most [20:38] efficient and effective way to achieve [20:40] the military objectives that you're [20:42] trying to achieve is actually [20:45] destabilizing the regime and focusing on [20:48] that. Now, maybe they're doing it behind [20:49] the scenes. I don't see evidence of it, [20:51] but this allergy to saying that we're [20:53] interested in bringing down the regime, [20:56] it's uh it's just causing it's causing [20:58] this whole thing to last longer. [21:01] It's making it more expensive. It Hey [21:06] I don't get it. And it's what Israel was [21:08] doing, by the way. It's what Israel was [21:09] busy with in the closing days of the [21:11] 12-day war before they were stopped. And [21:13] also in the closing weeks of the 40 days [21:17] of hostilities at the beginning of this, [21:19] starting in mid-March until April 7th, [21:21] April 8th, when the ceasefire went into [21:22] effect, is Israel was focused on regime [21:25] targets and the besiege on the IRGC. [21:28] That that's the that's the effective [21:30] path to victory. All right, enough [21:32] ranting. [21:34] See you on the next one.
