Transcript [00:00] Let's check in on the Iranian regime [00:03] media and how they are reacting to [00:05] President Trump's decision to close the [00:09] Straits of Hormuz to blockade Iran. And [00:12] in my opinion, they are actually [00:14] panicking. This really has them freaked [00:16] out. So, let's get right into what their [00:19] media is saying. Okay, so first of all [00:21] in WANA today, that is one of the two [00:24] major Iranian state media sites, on [00:26] their front page top news, the top story [00:30] is Trump, the Strait of Hormuz, and the [00:33] scenario of encircling the world in the [00:37] region. Very strange headline. [00:40] Um and in this video, we'll also learn a [00:42] little bit more about how WANA's stories [00:44] are written. But this is their top story [00:47] today. And as I've mentioned many times, [00:48] if you're new to the channel, uh these [00:50] regime media outlets, the top news story [00:53] is almost never news. It's always it's [00:55] almost always a piece of messaging and [00:57] analysis. So, here's the piece. Trump, [00:59] the Strait of Hormuz, and the scenario [01:00] of encircling the world in the region. [01:02] So, what's their take on Trump's [01:04] decision? At first glance, Donald [01:05] Trump's decision regarding the Strait of [01:07] Hormuz appears deeply contradictory. [01:10] The same United States that had [01:12] repeatedly warned about the consequences [01:14] of closing this vital waterway and [01:16] emphasized the need to keep it open is [01:18] now talking about blocking maritime [01:21] traffic. So, it's contradictory. First, [01:22] they don't want it closed, now they do [01:24] want it closed. But if this move is seen [01:26] merely as a tactical shift or a [01:28] temporary reaction, the core of the [01:30] story is missed. What is unfolding is [01:33] not simply about closing the Strait, but [01:36] about redefining control and function [01:39] over the Strait of Hormuz. This is [01:40] accurate. It's actually what it is. [01:42] That's what Trump is trying to do. [01:44] Rather than confronting Iran's leverage, [01:46] its ability to threaten closure, Trump [01:48] appears to be attempting to strip Iran [01:50] of that very tool and appropriate it for [01:53] himself. In other words, he is [01:55] transforming the Strait of Hormuz from [01:57] an Iranian pressure point into an [01:59] American one. Even if that means the [02:02] same route Washington once insisted [02:04] remain open. Now, this is pretty [02:06] accurate analysis. [02:09] That is what Trump is trying to do. He's [02:10] taking the leverage away from the [02:11] Iranians and he's holding the leverage [02:14] for himself. That's exactly what he's [02:16] doing. So, what's So, what's their big [02:18] takeaway? In this context, the [02:21] announcement of a ban on all shipping [02:23] takes on a different meaning. If the [02:25] objective were solely to pressure Iran, [02:28] the US could have limited restrictions [02:30] to Iranian linked vessels or increased [02:33] its naval presence under pretext such as [02:36] mine clearing operations. [02:40] Let's read that again. If the objective [02:42] were solely to pressure Iran, then the [02:44] US could have only restricted Iranian [02:47] linked vessels [02:49] or just increased its naval presence. [02:52] But extending the restriction to all [02:54] ships suggests that the issue goes well [02:57] beyond Iran. In [clears throat] reality, [02:59] Trump is playing with a global variable, [03:02] the flow of energy to the world. So, [03:04] what they're maintaining here is that [03:06] Trump is actually turning on the world. [03:09] He's punishing the world. He's not only [03:11] going after Iran. It's a very strange [03:13] approach [03:15] to to the spin here. Let's read a little [03:18] bit more. I'm not going to read the [03:18] whole piece. Disrupting the Strait of [03:20] Hormuz does not only pressure Iran. It [03:22] directly affects China, Europe, global [03:25] energy markets, and the broader [03:27] international economy. As such, [03:30] hold on, let's just pause there. Of [03:32] course it does. That's what Iran's been [03:34] doing for for this entire war. When they [03:37] they've been disrupting the shipping [03:39] through the Strait of Hormuz to drive up [03:41] oil prices and to cause economic [03:43] disruption all over the world. Of course [03:44] it does. As such, this move can be [03:47] interpreted as a form of geopolitical [03:50] hostage taking. This is so rich coming [03:52] from the Iranians who literally engaged [03:55] in the exact tactic by closing the [03:58] Strait of Hormuz, trying to drive up oil [04:01] prices, [04:02] uh attacking oil [04:04] um [04:05] oil production in their neighboring [04:07] states, attacking the Saudi East-West [04:09] pipeline. Their whole strategy has been [04:12] to cause geopolitic to engage in [04:15] geopolitical hostage taking. [04:17] It's unbelievable. Uh it's gaslighting [04:19] at the highest level. A means of [04:21] exerting pressure not just on Iran, but [04:22] on all actors dependent on Persian Gulf [04:25] energy supplies. [04:27] Meanwhile, the US Central Command [04:28] statement regarding a maritime blockade [04:30] of Iran helps clarify the operational [04:33] layer of this strategy. If the blockade [04:35] is primarily directed at Iranian ports, [04:38] it effectively becomes an attempt to [04:40] impose a transaction, relief from [04:42] pressure in exchange for concessions. [04:45] Duh. Yet even under this scenario, the [04:48] outcome would likely be heightened [04:50] insecurity across the region. And what [04:52] they're they're trying to say that that [04:54] Trump is causing damage to many more [04:56] nations now. So, now he's the enemy of [04:58] the world economy. The quick The key [05:00] question, we'll jump down to the end. [05:01] The key question, however, remains, is [05:03] this decision based on a coherent [05:05] strategic calculation or is it a [05:07] continuation of the miscalculations that [05:10] have already marked this conflict? [05:12] If this is the latter, the world may be [05:14] entering a new and dangerous phase, one [05:17] in which not only Iran, but all major [05:19] actors from the United States and Europe [05:21] to China will bear significant costs. [05:24] Ultimately, what distinguishes this move [05:25] is that Trump is not merely pressuring [05:27] Iran, he's attempting to reshape the [05:30] rules of the game in one of the world's [05:32] most critical geopolitical choke points [05:33] where a single decision can [05:35] simultaneously impact a country, a [05:38] region, and the global economy. So, this [05:40] is a pretty weak spin. What they're What [05:42] they're saying here is they're trying to [05:45] they're trying to spin it that Trump is [05:46] now he's now impacting everybody. He's [05:49] now he's now damaging the whole world [05:51] and he's going to be the one responsible [05:53] going forward for any spikes in oil [05:56] prices and any economic disruption. [05:58] Okay, that's that piece. And then we go [05:59] over to Tasnim. This is the IRGC a more [06:03] IRGC aligned outlet, also Iranian state [06:05] media. [06:07] Trump to lose Bab al-Mandab in case of [06:10] any move against Strait of Hormuz. [06:12] Source, okay. [06:15] Um Bab al-Mandab is the straits down [06:18] here and they they provided a a handy [06:20] map. This is Yemen [06:23] and Saudi and uh this is Yemen here and [06:26] Saudi Arabia is up here. And this is the [06:28] Bab al-Mandab Strait that leads up into [06:31] the Red Sea up to the Suez Canal to the [06:34] Mediterranean. That's That's the other [06:37] That's the other choke point. That's [06:38] where the Houthis were disrupting [06:40] shipping throughout the war uh between [06:43] Israel and Hamas, you know, from October [06:46] uh from October 7th until [06:48] sometime last year. [06:50] Okay? So, they Here's it saying this is [06:52] a threat. This article is sounding like [06:54] a piece of reporting, but it's actually [06:56] a threat. Trump to lose Bab al-Mandab. [06:58] Now, what does this say? [07:00] The US President Donald Trump will lose [07:02] Bab al-Mandab Strait if he takes any [07:04] action against the Strait of Hormuz, an [07:06] informed source told Tasnim. Remember, [07:08] this is a state media outlet. [07:10] Speaking to Tasnim about Trump's recent [07:12] remarks about the naval blockade of Iran [07:15] and the restriction of ship traffic [07:17] through the Strait of Hormuz, an [07:18] informed source said, quote, "Trump's [07:21] threats of this kind are no longer [07:22] effective and credible. [07:25] Hm. And if these threats were effective, [07:27] Trump would not have been desperate to [07:29] reach a ceasefire in the war. [07:32] Trump's threats are no longer effective [07:34] and credible because if they were [07:36] effective, he wouldn't have he would not [07:38] have been desperate to reach a [07:40] ceasefire. Okay, I'm not sure I follow [07:41] the logic there. [07:43] Such stances will not improve the [07:45] process of resolving problems and Trump [07:47] should fear not to lose Bab al-Mandab [07:51] Strait by engaging in these foolish [07:53] threats, the source said, reiterating [07:55] that such remarks will pose more costly [07:59] challenges for energy transport and [08:00] global trade in the region. [08:02] Statement came after US President Donald [08:04] Trump on Sunday claimed that the US Navy [08:06] would immediately begin a blockade of [08:08] ships [08:09] entering or leaving the Strait of [08:11] Hormuz. Iran has full control over the [08:14] strategic Strait that was responsible [08:15] for 20% of global shipping before the [08:18] war began [08:20] uh before the war began. Okay, this is [08:22] just basically a threat saying, okay, [08:26] so here's what happened. Iran closes the [08:27] Strait of Hormuz, that's their leverage [08:29] point, right? And that's what Trump was [08:31] trying to break. He was trying to get [08:32] them to open up the Strait of Hormuz. We [08:33] all remember his famous tweet. And that [08:36] And that has become the focal point of [08:38] the war to break the resolve of the [08:40] regime, to break the regime because [08:42] their only real leverage, their only [08:43] real power leverage that they've been [08:45] able to wield is the closing of the [08:47] Strait of Hormuz, which affects global [08:49] shipping, it affects the global you [08:51] know, the price of oil. Trump And that's [08:54] what And that's what this whole move is [08:56] about. And now they're saying, well, if [08:57] Trump does this, he's going to lose Bab [09:00] al-Mandab. Notice they don't say how [09:01] he's going to lose Bab al-Mandab. [09:03] Doesn't mention the Houthis. It doesn't [09:04] mention, [09:06] you know, the Houthis attacking the [09:07] shipping down down there. It doesn't say [09:09] anything about that. So, it's a very [09:11] strange piece. [09:13] It just says he should fear losing Bab [09:16] al-Mandab by engaging in these foolish [09:18] threats. Okay, so this is a [09:20] So, that's that's part of how they're [09:21] responding. But they're saying, okay, [09:22] you're trying to take You're taking our [09:24] leverage away by closing Hormuz [09:26] yourself. That's what the previous piece [09:27] talked about. [09:29] Um so, we're going to take the leverage [09:31] back by closing Bab al-Mandab, too. [09:34] Okay? [09:36] And then we have this piece here. [09:37] Spokesman decries US plan for naval [09:40] blockade of Iran as piracy. [09:43] Tehran, Tasnim. The spokesman for the [09:45] Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters of [09:47] Iran condemned the US decision to impose [09:50] restrictions on maritime transit of [09:52] vessels in international waters, [09:53] describing Trump's plan for for blockade [09:55] of Iran as an illegal action and an [09:58] instance of maritime piracy. [10:01] In comments on Monday, the spokesman [10:03] stressed that the Iranian armed forces [10:04] consider defending the country's legal [10:07] rights a natural and lawful duty. And on [10:11] this basis, the exercise of the [10:13] sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of [10:15] Iran in its territorial waters is a [10:17] natural right of the Iranian nation. [10:23] Um [10:25] Okay. [10:28] And it goes on and on and on like that. [10:29] I'm not going to read the whole thing. [10:30] It doesn't really matter. That's [10:32] basically the thrust of this. And then [10:34] at the end, despite 21 hours of of [10:36] intense talks, the Iranian delegation [10:38] returned to Tehran without an agreement [10:40] citing a lack of trust in US [10:42] commitments. [10:44] Amidst these tensions, Trump announced a [10:46] naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz [10:48] aimed at intercepting vessels that had [10:50] paid tolls to Iran. The US military [10:53] confirmed that the blockade would begin [10:55] on Monday [10:56] etc. Okay. [10:58] Now this this is incredible this piece. [11:01] Because what this piece is saying is [11:03] that what Trump is doing is illegal. It [11:05] calls it piracy. It refers to legal [11:08] rights [11:09] of Iran's territorial waters. Now let [11:12] let's make something very clear. This is [11:13] very important. It's not being said [11:15] enough in the media now. [11:18] According to international law, the [11:20] Strait of Hormuz is international [11:22] waters. [11:24] Okay? The Strait of Hormuz is not within [11:26] Iranian territory. Iran is on one side [11:28] of the Strait of Hormuz. On the other [11:30] side of the Strait of Hormuz, you have [11:32] the other Gulf states. You have Oman, [11:34] you have the Emirates, you have Saudi [11:36] Arabia, you have Kuwait, right? You have [11:40] Bahrain, right? They're We have these [11:42] other Gulf states on the other side of [11:43] the Strait of Hormuz. [11:46] Well, actually on the other side of the [11:47] of the Persian Gulf. On the other side [11:49] of the Strait of Hormuz, it's really [11:50] just it's Oman and UAE and Saudi Arabia [11:53] is there also. Okay. [11:56] It's an international waterway. No one's [11:58] allowed to charge tolls. [12:01] They've been talking here about about [12:04] intercepting vessels that paid tolls to [12:06] Iran. No one's allowed to charge tolls. [12:07] It's not Iranian territorial waters. [12:09] It's not an Right? It's So, when they [12:13] close the Strait of Hormuz, [12:16] when they close the Strait of Hormuz, [12:18] when they start charging vessels to go [12:19] through, [12:21] that is illegal. [12:22] That's [12:24] That's basically like mafia tactics, [12:25] protection money. Like [12:27] walk into the store and say, you know, [12:29] we wouldn't want anything to happen [12:31] here. So, if you you have to pay us [12:34] to protect you. [12:36] There's no reason whatsoever for anyone [12:38] to pay. It's it it it is a crime that [12:40] Iran commits. And what they're saying [12:43] now is that the US is committing a crime [12:45] by preventing Iran from committing that [12:47] crime. [12:48] Okay? Let's make that very clear. And [12:50] that's what makes this next piece so [12:53] beautiful. Well, it's one of the things [12:54] that makes it beautiful. This is a [12:56] very short, wild little piece on WANA [12:59] today. Check this out. Look at this [13:00] headline. Iran charges on vessels in [13:03] Strait of Hormuz are service fees, not [13:06] tolls. [13:07] Okay? [13:08] >> [laughter] [13:08] >> Because they realized the absurdity of [13:11] them complaining about the Americans [13:14] closing the Strait of Hormuz when [13:15] they're not when they had closed the [13:17] Strait of Hormuz and you're not allowed [13:19] to. It's illegal. [13:21] And they're not allowed to charge [13:22] anyone. [13:24] Or Right? Which is Like they're not [13:26] allowed to decide who gets to go [13:27] through, they're not allowed to charge [13:28] anything. So, now they have to say, well [13:30] well well well well, actually actually [13:34] the fees that we charge are just service [13:36] fees. They're not they're not tolls. And [13:39] check this out. As part of a new [13:40] approach, this piece, you're going to [13:41] see something in here that is just [13:43] insane. [13:44] I'm almost I'm already laughing. As part [13:46] of a new approach in the strategic [13:48] policy and maritime diplomacy, Iran is [13:50] pursuing a plan under which payments [13:52] collected from the vessels transiting [13:55] the Strait of Hormuz are denied as [13:59] service fees rather than transit tolls. [14:05] Service fees rather than transit tolls. [14:07] Under this proposal, Tehran aims to move [14:10] away from unilateral arrangements and [14:13] toward establishing bilateral [14:15] agreements. What does it mean? Under [14:16] what proposal? [14:18] Iran is pursuing a plan in which [14:20] payments collected from vessels are [14:22] defined as service fees. So, they're [14:24] saying that they're [14:27] they're they're pursuing a new plan [14:29] where they're not going to call them [14:30] tolls anymore and they're going to call [14:31] them service fees. [14:33] So, Tehran aims to move away from [14:35] unilateral arrangements and toward [14:37] establishing bilateral agreements with [14:39] stakeholder countries ensuring safe [14:41] passage for vessels in exchange for [14:44] recognition of the new framework and [14:46] payment of the associated fees. That is [14:47] a word salad. It's basically saying we [14:50] are mafia and we are going to charge [14:52] people protection money to safely pass [14:55] through the Straits of Hormuz. Safe from [14:57] who? [14:58] Who are you Who are you uh [15:01] in You're establishing You're ensuring [15:03] safe passage. You know why? [15:05] Because Like who's the danger [15:08] that you're ensuring safe passage who [15:10] that you're protecting these ships from? [15:12] It's you. [15:14] It's the Iranians. [15:16] So, it's basically saying that we're [15:17] running a protection racket. [15:19] But we're not going to call them tolls, [15:21] we're going to call them service fees. [15:22] Within this context, [15:25] assigning an executive role to Oman has [15:28] also been considered as part of a plan, [15:30] a model designed to create a mechanism [15:32] similar to the management of certain [15:33] international waterways. In other words, [15:35] we're going to pull in Oman as our as [15:38] our accomplice in this protection [15:39] racket. [15:41] And here here comes the doozy. [15:42] Additionally, the framework and check [15:44] out this word. If you can see this on [15:46] your screen, let me try to make it [15:46] bigger. [15:48] You see this? [15:50] This is a Russian word with an ES at the [15:52] end. [15:54] predusmotriye [15:58] Okay, I don't know Russian. I I studied [16:00] Russian a while ago. I know some [16:01] Russian. I can read it. [16:03] The framework predusmotriyes [16:06] is special discounts for Persian Gulf [16:09] states and and major Asian [16:11] energy-consuming powers encouraging them [16:13] to voluntarily join the mechanism and [16:15] paving the way for it to evolve into an [16:17] internationally accepted practice. How [16:18] did How did this Russian word get in [16:19] here with an ES on the end? [16:21] What the heck is going on? [16:24] What on earth is happening? [16:26] Okay. So, let's talk about this for a [16:29] second because this is is such a strange [16:32] tell. [16:34] Right? The framework predusmotriyes [16:37] special discounts. The word right there, [16:39] that Russian word tells you everything [16:40] you need to know about how this content [16:42] is produced. Okay, this is not just bad [16:44] English. Okay, this is a translation [16:47] artifact. The root of that that that is [16:49] a Russian word. It means provides for or [16:51] stipulates. Okay, but it's been [16:53] partially converted into English and [16:56] left broken. A human editor doesn't do [16:59] that, which means this wasn't written in [17:01] English and it wasn't properly [17:03] translated either. [17:05] Okay? [17:06] >> [laughter] [17:06] >> Now, [17:07] think about this for a second. Why would [17:08] an Iranian outlet have a Russian lingu- [17:11] like linguistic uh remnant in its [17:14] English output? Bec- Right? [17:17] See, this isn't even written in Persian [17:20] and translated to English. [17:22] Okay? It's very likely a multi-step [17:25] pipeline that it was originated in [17:27] Persian and then it was routed through [17:29] sort of a Russian language terminology [17:31] and then pushed into English [17:34] using machine translation or something [17:36] like that and no one bothered cleaning [17:37] it up. [17:39] It's really you you know, it's quite a [17:40] sight to see. And then look at the [17:42] structure of the whole sentence itself, [17:43] which again, besides the Russian piece, [17:46] encouraging them to voluntarily join the [17:48] mechanism and paving the way ba ba ba ba [17:50] ba. This is classic machine translation. [17:53] Right? You have these stacked clauses [17:55] and these vague nouns like mechanism, [17:57] this bureaucratic phrasing that sounds [17:59] official but doesn't actually say much. [18:01] It's not written in order to be clear. [18:03] It's written to sound like policy [18:05] language. Right? We see a lot of this in [18:07] these articles. So So, here's the [18:09] takeaway and this is the part that that [18:11] a lot of people miss. When you see [18:12] language like this in an outlet like [18:13] WANA, you're not looking It's not just [18:16] that it's sloppy English. [18:18] What you're seeing is how fast the [18:20] content is being pushed out and and and [18:23] it's not being It's not careful. [18:25] And how little actual English editorial [18:29] control there is. [18:31] I Look, this isn't [18:34] >> [laughter] [18:34] >> I mean, it's obvious that this isn't [18:35] journalism. It's this state messaging [18:38] which is being translated on the fly for [18:41] international consumption. Uh it's just [18:43] whatever. It's just a It's just [18:45] hilarious. I think it's that's wild. [18:46] We're going to see another example of [18:47] something really bizarre in what these [18:49] guys write. So, and this next story [18:53] Qalibaf mocks Trump's threats of naval [18:56] blockade amid rising oil prices. [19:00] Okay, Qalibaf. He was the chief [19:02] negotiator, right? He's the He's the [19:04] speaker of the of the parliament. [19:05] Speaker of Iranian Parliament Mohammad [19:07] Bagher Qalibaf [19:08] This And sometimes it's spelled with a [19:10] G, Galibaf, GH Qalibaf, and it's spelled [19:13] Qalibaf. It's It's something It's [19:14] somewhere in between the pronunciation. [19:16] Qalibaf. Speaker of Iranian Parliament [19:19] Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf derided the US [19:21] President Donald Trump's threat of a [19:22] naval blockade against Iran saying such [19:25] actions would ultimately lead to an [19:27] increased longing for the days of paying [19:29] four to five dollars for gas. In a post [19:32] on his X account on Sunday night, [19:35] Qalibaf dismissed Trump's threats of a [19:37] naval blockade on Iran implying that [19:38] such measures would backfire. And look [19:40] what he wrote here. This is his This is [19:42] what he wrote on X. This is his tweet or [19:44] his post. [19:45] Quote, "Enjoy the current pump figures [19:48] with the so-called blockade. Soon you'll [19:50] be nostalgic for four to five gas," he [19:53] reminded Americans. And then he wrote [19:55] this. [19:57] Look at this. [19:59] It's it's sort of like a math [20:02] See what that is? [20:04] He wrote that. He put that in a post on [20:08] X. [20:09] Okay? Now, what is that? [20:11] Well, he also his post also included a [20:13] photo of a map highlighting the gas [20:16] prices at gas stations near the White [20:17] House [20:19] further emphasizing his critique of [20:21] Trump's threats. Now, let's go back to [20:23] this bizarre [20:28] looks like sort of a math equation of [20:31] some sort. [20:34] Okay, so let's talk about what this [20:35] thing is. Okay? Cuz it's really weird. [20:38] Right? And um after saying to enjoy the [20:40] new, you know, saying that gas is going [20:42] to rise. That's his point. His point is [20:44] that this blockade of the Strait of [20:45] Hormuz is just going to it's going to [20:47] make the whole gas price thing go even [20:48] further. They would [20:50] they want to cause maximum political [20:53] uh damage for Trump from closing the [20:55] Strait of Hormuz. So, we saw that the [20:56] first piece we read, it talked about how [20:58] this is going to this is going to bring [20:59] other countries it's going to punish [21:01] other countries as well. [21:02] And and it's going to mess up and and uh [21:05] he's going to lose Bab-el-Mandeb. [21:07] And and now he's saying this thing. [21:11] Okay? [21:13] So, what is this? [21:17] It's a math formula. [21:20] It's not actually real math. There's no [21:21] defined variables. There's no [21:22] explanation of what the O is. There's no [21:25] explanation of what the function F [21:26] represents. Okay? There's no context [21:28] here. Mathematically, it doesn't [21:30] actually mean anything. And I I'm not [21:32] very good at math. I had to look this up [21:33] and and I I also like read some of the [21:35] comments on the X post to try to figure [21:37] it out. [21:38] But here's what it says. What he's [21:39] trying to say, and some of you probably [21:41] understand this better than I do [21:43] what he's trying to say actually is very [21:44] simple. If pressure on Iran increases, [21:47] the consequences will escalate [21:50] and they'll escalate faster than you [21:51] expect. In other words, don't push us. [21:54] But instead of instead of saying that [21:55] plainly [21:57] he he instead chooses to like wrap it in [22:00] this pseudo-mathematical language. [22:03] Now, why is he doing that? [22:05] Why does he write it that way? Why [22:06] doesn't he just say clearly what he's [22:07] saying? Because [22:09] this is something that we've seen a lot [22:10] when we look at Iranian media. They want [22:12] to appear clever. And that's why they [22:14] often will talk about like this is what [22:16] Trump is trying to do and they'll give a [22:18] few different options of what he's [22:19] trying to do. [22:20] Uh this is what he's thinking because [22:22] they want to appear clever that they're [22:24] not being fooled, that they figure [22:26] everything out. And when you and when [22:27] you use math symbols like this, it's [22:30] like it's like a you know, it it's a [22:32] kind of [22:33] it's like a juvenile way of of showing [22:35] how smart you are. It sounds analytical [22:38] and precise and it gives the impression [22:40] of what he's describing is not just a [22:42] threat, but it's it's uh it's almost [22:44] scientific. [22:46] And it lets him stay vague and [22:47] mysterious. [22:49] You have to study what he wrote. He's [22:50] not specifying what the response will [22:52] be. He's not committing to a particular [22:54] action. He's not saying we will do X. [22:57] He's just suggesting that one thing once [22:59] things start moving, they'll spiral out [23:01] of control. [23:02] Okay? That's what he's signaling. It's [23:04] actually a useful window into how these [23:07] bizarre messages are constructed. And [23:09] the first again, the first message was [23:11] was in English, clear, direct and [23:14] obviously well translated. The second [23:16] line is is meant to project [23:18] sophistication, to signal to analysts [23:20] and policy makers that Iran is is [23:22] thinking in terms of, you know, [23:24] scientific uh you know, second-order [23:26] effects and and and is and is really [23:28] really clever. [23:30] But both lines are saying the same [23:31] thing. If you pressure us, there'll be [23:33] consequences. One says it in plain [23:35] English and the other dresses it up in a [23:39] mathematical formula to make it sound [23:40] smarter than it actually is. [23:43] Okay? And and and once you see this kind [23:45] of thing, you see this this type of [23:47] weirdo messaging in in a lot of what [23:49] these guys do. [23:51] All right. Uh just a little bit more on [23:54] this. So, now this is a very strange [23:56] story. This is a very strange story. I [23:58] was almost thinking of making a whole [23:59] video just about this one. Cuz on [24:01] Tasnim, you know, look, most of the [24:02] stories are pretty much, you know, [24:04] they're about uh [24:06] you know, they're headlines that you [24:07] kind of understand where they're coming [24:08] from. Look at this. Hormuz Strait's key [24:12] in Iran's possession, Velayati. I'd [24:15] never heard of Velayati. Who is he? [24:18] Ali Akbar Velayati, a senior advisor on [24:22] international affairs to the leader of [24:24] the Islamic Revolution, said the key to [24:26] the Strait of Hormuz is in the hands of [24:28] Iran. [24:29] Okay, there's no that's not a news item. [24:32] He's just saying, "Oh, it's it's ours." [24:35] In a post or the key to it is ours. In a [24:38] post on his X account on Sunday, and by [24:40] the way, I went to his X account, [24:42] there's no such post, but whatever. In a [24:44] post on his X account on Sunday, [24:45] Velayati referred to yesterday's [24:47] negotiations in Islamabad between Iran [24:50] and the United States saying [24:52] "The history of Iran's diplomacy from [24:54] the Treaty of Erzurum [24:57] to the Islamabad negotiations has one [25:00] unifying principle, the protection of [25:02] dear Iran." [25:04] He emphasized that just as Abu al-Hayat [25:07] Gorge in Iran's southern province of [25:10] Fars has historically symbolized the [25:12] obstruction of foreign paths into the [25:15] country, today the key to the Strait of [25:17] Hormuz is firmly in Iran's powerful [25:20] hands. That is the entire news item. It [25:23] is And I'm like I'm sitting there [25:24] thinking like, "Why? What are they [25:26] saying?" [25:27] All this the upshot of it is simply that [25:29] the key to the Strait of Hormuz is [25:31] Iran's and it makes reference to this [25:33] Treaty of Erzurum and the Abu al-Hayat [25:37] Gorge. [25:38] And this guy is sort of an obscure [25:39] figure. He I've never seen him mentioned [25:41] before. I couldn't figure out for the [25:42] life of me what this was about. So, I [25:44] did some digging. [25:46] And [25:49] and and this this Treaty of What was it [25:52] called again? [25:53] Treaty of [25:55] What's the word there? [25:57] Treaty of Erzurum. [26:00] The Treaty of Erzurum. So, this was a [26:01] 19th-century treaty. [26:03] Let me explain what happened here. Let [26:04] me break this down. [26:06] So, first of all, let's let's first talk [26:07] about the al-Hayat Gorge. Okay? It's a [26:10] it's a narrow mountain pass [26:13] in southern Iran. [26:14] Uh on its own, it's not geopolitically [26:16] important. [26:18] But in Iranian history, it's very [26:20] important. And it's it's it meant it [26:22] refers to something very specific. It is [26:25] a it it was back in the days of [26:27] old-fashioned warfare, a choke point. It [26:29] was a place where a defending force [26:32] could block a much larger enemy cuz it's [26:34] a narrow mountain pass. [26:36] So, a large army couldn't get through [26:39] and with a small force you could defend [26:40] it. [26:41] You get that? So, the geography itself [26:44] or the geology, however whatever you [26:46] want to say, gives gives even if you're [26:49] the underdog, even if you don't have [26:52] that much force against an invading [26:54] enemy, you can you can hold off there. [26:56] So, when So, when he invokes this gorge [27:00] it's not about the terrain, right? He's [27:01] talking about this historical concept [27:03] that the audience, the Iranians, the [27:05] Persian people know. If you control the [27:07] narrow passage, you control access. [27:11] Right? And then he takes this idea [27:13] and [27:15] you know, and and and what's he talking [27:16] about? [27:18] He's using it as an as a metaphor or as [27:20] an analogy for Hormuz, right? Iran sits [27:24] on one of the most important choke [27:25] points on Earth, the Strait of Hormuz. [27:28] Right? And we know that [27:31] what is it? Like 20% of the world's oil [27:32] passes through there. So, what's his [27:34] message? Just as we can block a mountain [27:36] pass to prevent this formidable enemy [27:39] from coming in, we can also disrupt this [27:41] global artery. [27:43] Okay? Now, what about the Treaty of [27:45] Erzurum? What's that? [27:47] That refers to a series of agreements [27:50] uh in the 1800s between Persia, what we [27:53] now call Iran, and the Ottoman Empire. [27:56] Those treaties came after a war [27:59] a conflict. Persia was under a lot of [28:02] pressure. The Ottoman Empire was much [28:03] more powerful and they were negotiate [28:05] and it was and Persia was negotiating [28:07] its borders with the Ottoman Empire. So, [28:09] why is he bringing that up? [28:12] Because in the in the regime not in the [28:15] regime narrative, Erzurum represents [28:19] it it represents something very [28:20] specific, right? It's it's not weakness. [28:24] Cuz in Erzurum there was a treaty and [28:25] they fixed their borders and they held [28:27] off the invasion from the Ottomans by [28:28] making this treaty. [28:30] But it's survival under pressure from a [28:32] more formidable foe. [28:34] So, the message here is we've been [28:37] pressured. [28:39] We've negotiated. [28:41] But we but that negotiation helped us [28:45] persevere. [28:47] That negotiation saved us and allowed us [28:50] to persevere and continue to build our [28:52] great nation. [28:53] So, the negotiation itself [28:56] is part of is is how we survived. So, [28:59] let's put these two references together. [29:02] The Treaty of [29:04] of uh [29:07] this treaty [29:09] What the heck's it called again? [29:12] Yeah, the Treaty of Erzurum and the [29:16] al-Hayat Gorge. Okay, let's put them [29:19] together now. [29:21] The al-Hayat Gorge is about a choke [29:24] point [29:26] about the ability to hold off a [29:29] formidable enemy and impose [29:31] uh military defeat or costs on him [29:34] because even though he's more formidable [29:36] because you control a choke point. The [29:39] other one [29:40] the the Treaty of Erzurum is about [29:42] endurance under pressure and and the use [29:45] of diplomacy and negotiations to [29:48] preserve the Persian nation. [29:51] Okay? So, put these two [29:53] Put these two things together and you [29:54] get a sense of what of what It's not [29:56] what this guy is saying. [29:58] Every weird statement by a by an Iranian [30:02] political figure or diplomat doesn't end [30:05] up as an article on Tasnim translated [30:07] into English. [30:08] Okay? This is This is a statement that [30:12] comes in the context of negotiations [30:14] with the United States because [30:16] negotiations themselves are a problem [30:19] for the Iranian regime domestically. I [30:21] mean, when I say domestically, I mean [30:23] internally in the regime, negotiations [30:26] are fundamentally a problem. Because [30:28] negotiations look like weakness. [30:32] So, what do they do? So, they respond by [30:35] redefining this tweet, supposed tweet, [30:38] this statement by this guy [30:40] is redefining the negotiation. [30:43] It's saying, "We're not negotiating [30:45] because we're weak. We're negotiating [30:48] because we have a tradition of [30:50] negotiating [30:51] as a way of enduring and persevering and [30:55] surviving to fight another day. That's [30:57] how we win over, you know, over time." [30:59] This goes back to what we talked about [31:01] in an earlier video about Karbala, about [31:04] the origins of Shiite Islam, that they [31:06] were the minority and they were [31:07] persecuted by the Sunnis and their [31:09] leader Ali Hussein was killed and then [31:12] they all committed themselves to [31:13] continue the struggle against against [31:15] the more powerful authorities. That's [31:17] the whole ethos of Shiite Islam. So, [31:20] he's bringing up this the both the [31:23] resistance at the [31:25] at the at this gorge [31:29] against a mightier enemy [31:31] and this negotiation against the [31:34] Ottomans who were also a more mighty [31:35] enemy [31:37] and saying, "This is how we win." [31:40] So, they're reminding everyone [31:42] that they hold leverage [31:44] and they're also saying [31:47] we [31:48] you know, that negotiations are [31:50] legitimate. Right? Negotiations are [31:52] actually legitimate. And that's very [31:54] That's very important here. [31:56] Um [31:57] because [31:58] the you know, there was a report, Droor [32:02] Balazadeh is the is is one of the most [32:06] well-informed He's He's a reporter. He's [32:08] the Iran correspondent for Channel 14 [32:11] cable news in Israel and he has a lot of [32:12] sources in Iran and he often breaks very [32:15] important stories. He He has sources in [32:17] the regime who leak to him. [32:19] And he [32:21] He's very well He's very well-sourced [32:24] and and you can rely on his reporting. [32:27] And he put out a tweet uh [32:29] yesterday [32:31] about some of what was said in the [32:33] negotiations. [32:34] Exclusive, we revealed in tonight's [32:36] broadcast full and exclusive quotes from [32:38] the negotiations in Pakistan. Abbas [32:40] Aragchi, Iran's foreign minister, said [32:42] to the Americans, "What you failed to [32:44] achieve in war, you will not take take [32:46] from us in an agreement. After 40 days [32:48] without success, it makes no sense for [32:50] you to demand everything now." [32:51] President Peseschkian told Aragchi that, [32:54] you know, "Do whatever it takes to make [32:55] a deal because he wants a deal." [32:57] And look at this one. Ahmad Vahidi, IRGC [33:01] commander. He's the commander the [33:02] current commander of the IRGC. They're [33:05] more hardline. [33:07] Said to his circle regarding Ghalibaf, [33:12] quote, "We have not even buried the [33:14] leader yet and Ghalibaf is already [33:16] shaking hands with those who killed [33:18] him." [33:20] In other words, the IRGC hardliners see [33:23] the negotiations as weakness [33:26] as capitulation. [33:29] So, this story, this bizarro little [33:32] story, which of course originally [33:34] appeared in Persian in Tasnim, [33:36] is meant to give a framing to the [33:39] negotiations that they're act that [33:41] there's a tradition in Persian history [33:44] of negotiating [33:45] when faced with a formidable enemy [33:48] so that as a way of [33:51] as a way of persevering. [33:53] Anyway, so that's how So, that kind of [33:56] sums up That's the end of my report [33:57] here. So, now we have a sense of how the [34:00] regime is viewing the the closure of the [34:04] Straits of Hormuz. My num bottom line [34:07] here, bottom line takeaway of all this, [34:09] they're panicking. [34:11] I believe that they're panicking over [34:12] this. You see it from the original story [34:16] saying, "Well, this is going to cause [34:17] even more spikes in oil prices and and [34:19] it's going to it's going to bring other [34:20] countries involved and you're going to [34:21] lose Bab el-Mandeb." Meaning they're [34:23] grasping at straws as a way of spinning [34:25] this that it's bad that it's a bad move [34:27] by the Americans. And that's a signal [34:30] that that they're really panicking over [34:32] it and that it's really [34:33] it's really an existential threat to [34:35] them. [34:36] Okay, I hope you found this interesting. [34:38] Please like, share, subscribe, all that [34:39] great stuff. Please tell people what [34:41] we're doing on this channel. And please [34:43] make sure to go check out all the great [34:44] stuff that we're putting up at Israel [34:45] 365 News YouTube channel as well. God [34:47] bless.
