Transcript [00:00] Hey everyone, we're going to do an [00:01] update on a number of different uh [00:03] issues that are uh taking place uh with [00:06] Iran, things that are going on [00:07] internally and with the United States in [00:09] the Straits of Hormuz and all of that. [00:11] So, let's just get right to it. Let's [00:13] pull up the headlines and uh and start [00:15] ourselves off here. First of all, this [00:18] is I just feel that we have to be [00:20] talking about these aspects of the war [00:22] more of what's going on in Iran, the [00:24] suppression of the Iranian people, [00:26] giving a voice to them. I made a few [00:27] videos over the last few weeks about the [00:29] executions that are going on. And now we [00:31] see another human rights abuse. Iranian [00:33] f photojournalist [00:35] faces 15 years in prison over images and [00:40] reporting. Uh and this was uh reported [00:42] just yesterday. Acclaimed or two days [00:45] ago, acclaimed Iranian photojournalist [00:47] Yalda Moiri [00:50] has spent much of her career documenting [00:53] moments of dissent and the lives of [00:55] women in Iran. The work has repeatedly [00:57] brought her into conflict with the [00:59] authorities and on Iran's National [01:00] Journalist Day on Saturday, she learned [01:03] she had been sentenced to 15 years in [01:05] prison. The sentence was handed down [01:06] under a law enacted after the 12-day war [01:09] between Israel and Iran in 2025. [01:12] legislation that Iranian authorities say [01:14] is intended to combat espionage and [01:16] cooperation with hostile states. [01:18] According to the handwritten notes [01:20] reviewed by Reuters, the accusations [01:22] against her include giving interviews to [01:24] media outlets deemed hostile by the [01:26] authorities and providing photographs to [01:29] organizations linked to the US and [01:31] Israel. Reuters could not independently [01:34] verify the contents of the charge sheet. [01:36] In a statement provided to Reuters, Miri [01:39] said the intelligence wing of the [01:40] Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps raided [01:42] her home during anti-government protests [01:45] in January, confiscated her phone, [01:47] laptop, and other electronic equipment. [01:50] She said IRGC officers returned after US [01:53] after the US launched air strikes on [01:54] Iran this year, and again seized her [01:57] belongings. Myri had previously been in [02:00] prison for her work. She served two [02:02] years in Garch Prison, a place she had [02:04] previously photographed. In 2022, she [02:06] spent three months in jail and was [02:09] sentenced to eight years in prison for [02:10] covering the nationwide women life [02:12] freedom uprisings that erupted after the [02:15] death of a young Iranian woman, Masha [02:17] Amini [02:19] um Masamini in police custody. An [02:21] amnesty later reduced the sentence, but [02:23] she said the case continued to expose [02:25] her to questioning by authorities. Uh so [02:29] we have more suppression. And I wanted [02:30] to lead the video with that just to give [02:32] voice to this uh this brave journalist [02:36] uh who is now facing a massive prison [02:38] sentence for really just exposing the [02:40] truth about what's going on in Iran. [02:42] Yalda Moari, she deserves our prayers [02:45] and our thoughts and to tell people [02:46] about her cause. Okay. Um Iranian MP [02:51] warns of severe drug shortages and price [02:53] hikes. So I want to spend a few minutes [02:54] right now talking about the situation [02:56] domestically. So, I did an interview on [02:59] the Israel 365 news channel a couple [03:01] days ago with Jonathan Sai, who's a uh [03:04] who's a researcher at the Foundation for [03:07] Defense of Democracies, [03:09] an important think tank in Washington. [03:11] Uh, and he's a he's of Iranian origin. [03:14] And we talked a little bit about the [03:15] hardship going on with the Iranian [03:16] people internally. Uh, and I wanted to [03:19] focus in on that Iranian. So, drug [03:22] shortages and price hikes. Homayun Samay [03:25] Naja Fabadi, a member of the Iranian [03:28] Parliament's Health and Medical [03:29] Commission, warned of severe medicine [03:31] shortages and dramatic price surges [03:33] across Iran, noting that international [03:35] money transfer barriers and soaring [03:37] import expenses have further complicated [03:39] drug procurement. Okay. Uh he said this [03:42] the situation is extremely critical. [03:44] Regrettably, we are facing acute drug [03:46] shortages alongside eyewatering price [03:50] increases. So you have you have [03:52] shortages and inflation. He also [03:54] highlighted the emergence of black [03:56] market for scarce pharmaceuticals. He [03:58] explained that black market middlemen [04:00] acquire specialized drugs from state [04:02] distribution centers using multiple [04:05] prescriptions only to resell them at [04:06] exorbitant markups to desperate [04:08] patients. So they're facing a drug uh [04:11] shortage. And we also have this Iran's [04:14] nono This is from today. This is a story [04:17] that dropped today. Iran's nonoil trade [04:20] drops 30% due to war and maritime [04:22] blockades. We always focus on the oil, [04:24] but there's a lot more to their economy. [04:26] Iran's nonoil trade value dropped by [04:28] approximately 30% during the past four [04:30] months driven by armed conflict and [04:33] severe disruptions to maritime transport [04:35] routes. According to Islamic Republic of [04:38] Iran customs administration data, Iran's [04:40] nonoil trade value stood at [04:43] approximately 34 billion during the [04:45] first four months of 2025. That's before [04:47] the 12- day war. Of this total, 16.5 [04:51] billion was was non-oil exports and 17.5 [04:55] billion was imports. Applying the [04:58] reported 30% contraction to last year's [05:01] baseline indicates that Iran's non nono [05:04] trade volume shrank to approximately 24 [05:07] billion during the first four months of [05:08] the current year, a loss of roughly 10 [05:11] billion compared to the same period in [05:13] 2025. [05:15] and customs records show that their [05:17] trade value was already suffering from a [05:20] downward trajectory before this war. I [05:23] made a video about the Iranian economy [05:25] also besides the interview with [05:26] Jonathan. I made a video about the [05:28] Iranian economy last week, I think. [05:30] Yeah, I think it was last week where I [05:32] talked about how their economy was in [05:33] terrible shape even before the war [05:36] started. Uh so, and it only got it only [05:39] got that much worse. [05:41] China. Now, this this I found [05:43] interesting. China, Iraq, the United [05:46] Arab Emirates, and Turkey rank as Iran's [05:49] top non-oil export destinations during [05:52] the first four months of 2025, while the [05:55] UAE, China, and Turkey serve as the [05:57] primary origins of Iranian imports. [06:01] The UAE, China, and Turkey. Now, China [06:03] and and Turkey both have the ability to [06:07] ship things over land into Iran. So the [06:10] the blockade, the shipping blockade does [06:12] not necessarily affect them. It affects [06:13] them somewhat. We'll get into that in a [06:14] moment. But we've already talked about [06:16] the overland trade routes that Pakistan [06:18] opened uh six overland trade routes that [06:22] they opened after the ceasefire when the [06:24] Americans put the blockade on in April [06:28] and that was predominantly in order to [06:31] move Chinese goods that come into [06:34] Pakistan on their way to Iran. [06:37] The TPOI deputy had noted that following [06:39] restrictions across southern maritime [06:41] corridors, landbased transit routes are [06:44] increasingly being utilized for freight [06:45] transport. However, shifting cargo to [06:48] overland transit threatens to [06:49] significantly drive up trade costs [06:52] because it says here that it's it costs [06:55] approximately four times as much to ship [06:59] goods over land from China into Iran [07:02] than it does to ship them at sea. So the [07:05] blockade, you know, Trump's blockade is [07:07] not hermetic. We've talked about that [07:09] because of these overland trade routes, [07:11] Chinese goods are still making it into [07:13] Iran, but it's driving massive price [07:16] hikes. So there's somewhat there's [07:17] shortages somewhat or to a great extent [07:20] there. There are shortages. We see this [07:21] we see this also with the [07:22] pharmaceuticals as I just showed you. Um [07:25] and uh and and there is the blockade. [07:27] The blockade is not hermetic. But even [07:29] the Chinese goods that are getting in, [07:31] they are far more expensive. Iran faces [07:34] 20 million liter daily fuel shortage. [07:37] There have been gas lines in in China. [07:40] I'm sorry, in Iran. Iran faces 20 [07:43] million liter a day uh daily fuel [07:46] shortage. And you might wonder why an [07:48] oil producing nation can have fuel [07:50] shortages. They all that they they can [07:51] still produce oil domestically even if [07:53] they can't ship it. Well, their [07:54] refineries are old and not maintained [07:58] and they have terrible infrastructure [07:59] and that's part of why they they often [08:01] have fuel shortages and energy shortages [08:03] in Iran even though they produce crude [08:05] oil. In any event, so you see they have [08:07] a massive gap in the amount of liters of [08:09] of oil they need of fuel, I'm sorry, of [08:11] fuel that they need per day. So the [08:13] fuel, the pharmaceuticals, [08:15] um uh the fact that you know that their [08:18] their non-oil trade has dropped by 30%. [08:20] These are all some indicators of where [08:22] they are. Now, let's get to the straight [08:23] of Hormuz. You know, before we get into [08:25] that, let's just uh remind you of a very [08:28] important event that we're hosting on [08:29] Sunday. Mani's New York City, a warning [08:31] to America, a webinar you do not want to [08:34] miss. Mayor Rudy Giuliani, former mayor [08:37] of New York City, will be uh will be on [08:38] our panel along with Shabas Castenbomb, [08:41] Ariela Novik, who's a great uh uh [08:43] investigative journalist. Uh Robert [08:45] Spencer, the prolific author, and Rabbi [08:48] Daniel Shambach, who's been at the [08:49] forefront of pushing back on Mamani's uh [08:52] policies that have been so damaging to [08:54] the Jewish community. He's been involved [08:56] in all of that in New York, and they're [08:58] going to be joining us on this amazing [08:59] webinar. Make sure you register. It's [09:02] 2:00 p.m. Eastern time on Sunday, 9:00 [09:04] p.m. in Israel. But if you can't make [09:06] it, so long as you're registered, you [09:08] will get a link in your inbox with the [09:11] full uh, you know, to watch the full [09:12] webinar on your own time. So, make sure [09:14] you're registered. You can register by [09:16] clicking the link in the description of [09:17] this video or israel 365.com/mdani [09:21] or scan the QR code that is on your [09:24] screen. Okay, let's get back to the [09:27] story. So, um, let's get to the [09:29] straightfor now. what's going on [09:31] politically. [09:32] Uh so we have this headline from today. [09:34] Tanker struck by drone while transiting [09:37] the straight of Hormuz. UK MTO said, and [09:39] this is just from today, just from a few [09:41] hours ago. Um and uh I'm sorry, this was [09:44] from Thursday. It was from yesterday, [09:45] but it was it was just reported that a [09:48] tanker was struck. And the Iranian state [09:51] media gave more details on it on this [09:53] UKMTO report. the the the UK MTO [09:55] reported on Friday that it received [09:58] reports of a security incident involving [09:59] an oil tanker off the coast of Oman. And [10:02] it says where and here it says where it [10:03] was hit. It says that it was [10:08] um [10:10] that the tanker was struck by an [10:11] unmanned aerial vehicle while that's a [10:14] drone while exiting the straight of [10:15] Hormuz in waters near the port town of [10:18] Casab. And they included a helpful [10:20] little map here. See, Casab is is is in [10:24] Oman, which means that this was a tanker [10:26] that was transiting the straight of [10:27] Hormuz in the southern route that the US [10:30] and Oman opened up. And that's where [10:32] Iran Iran does not want anyone using [10:34] that route. Uh that so they struck this [10:37] tanker there. And this is and they put [10:39] this out on their media because this is [10:40] their way of reminding everyone that the [10:42] street of Hormuz is closed and that they [10:44] control it. Um, [10:47] you know, uh, they're still doing this [10:50] every day. The UAE condemns hostile [10:52] Iranian attack on two vessels in the [10:54] Straight of Hormuz. And the, and the big [10:55] question this raises for me is, remember [10:57] when Trump said a couple weeks ago, for [10:59] every for every ship that they hit, [11:01] we're going to take out one of their [11:02] bridges. Well, where is all that right [11:05] now? We're not seeing we're not seeing [11:08] the bombing, which, you know, to the [11:09] Iranians, what this means that now [11:12] they're still shelling. They're still [11:14] attacking ships in the street of Hormuz [11:15] and they're getting away with it because [11:16] they're not being attacked by the [11:18] Americans. I mean, I don't think that [11:20] they should be attacking the bridges [11:21] anyway. I've said this many times. It [11:22] should be every time you hit a ship, one [11:25] of the leaders of the IRGC will die or [11:27] one of the members of parliament will [11:29] die or one of some other, you know, [11:31] threaten them. Threaten the regime [11:36] people themselves. Decapitation strikes [11:39] say that, you know, that's what they [11:41] should be doing. In any event, UAE [11:43] condemns hostile Iranian attack on two [11:45] vessels in the Straight of Hormuz. So, [11:46] the United Arab Emirates, two ships from [11:49] the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company were [11:51] hit, no injuries reported, but they were [11:53] they were transiting the straight of [11:55] Hormuz. And this was all um [11:58] uh yeah, this was all just uh this was [12:01] reported today. [12:03] Shipping traffic falls further in [12:05] Straight of Hormuz as US and Iran [12:07] compete over claims to control. The [12:09] straight of Hormuz is under Iran's [12:10] control and management. That's what they [12:12] claimed. That's what the B the new head [12:14] of the bases said. Shipping traffic at [12:15] the straight of Hormuz fell below the [12:18] monthly average towards the end of the [12:19] week due to volatile sentiment between [12:22] the United States and Iran with both [12:24] countries making competing claims over [12:26] its control. The straight of Hormuz is [12:28] under Iran's control and management. The [12:30] recently appointed head of Iran's bases [12:32] paral paramilitary unit said on [12:34] Thursday. Meanwhile, the United States [12:36] on Thursday said it could maintain a [12:39] naval blockade of Iran indefinitely and [12:41] would ratchet up economic pressure on [12:43] Thran as ceasefire talks have [12:46] floundered. And on that point, let's uh [12:48] let's watch this clip of Scott Bessant, [12:52] the US uh secretary of the Treasury, who [12:54] was on Newsmax yesterday. [12:57] >> Epic fury to economic fury. And you know [13:01] at the president's orders we have raised [13:04] the level uh even again and watch this [13:08] space for more announcements coming next [13:10] week because we are going to apply [13:13] measures like have never been seen in [13:16] the history the of economic [13:20] isolation on a country. And [13:27] and we went from epic [13:33] So there you go. So that's uh Treasury [13:36] Secretary Scott Bessant saying that [13:38] things this is going to be unprecedented [13:40] new levels of economic isolation and [13:42] they're going to be really hitting them [13:44] hard economically and it's going to be a [13:45] whole new ball game next week. He's not [13:47] a guy who's prone to hyperbole. He's [13:49] kind of a straight talking guy. So we [13:51] could be seeing a real ratcheting up of [13:53] the economic pressure. And this fits [13:55] with Trump's messaging over the last [13:56] couple of weeks because in Trump's [13:58] messaging, while he has this frustration [14:00] over Hormuz and there's been been this [14:02] kind of like dillydallying about [14:04] strikes, which again I kind of agree [14:05] with, the strikes weren't really doing [14:07] what you need to do, he has been [14:09] constantly touting the fact that the [14:12] economic pressure is so intense and is [14:14] working and is is really, you know, the [14:15] most effective thing and the blockade [14:17] and all that. So ratcheting up the [14:19] economic pressure is a way to wage war [14:23] on the Iranian regime without actually [14:25] doing anything kinetic that could cause [14:27] further strikes spikes in oil prices [14:29] would also be very is also very [14:31] unpopular at home. So this is uh this is [14:34] interesting. It's an interesting [14:36] declaration from Scott Bessant of what [14:38] is of what is coming next. [14:41] uh and we'll certainly be watching for [14:43] it and and Secretary of War Haggsith [14:45] also said yesterday that we can and [14:47] that's the quote that you saw in the u [14:49] in in the last piece that I just read [14:52] that uh you know we could keep the [14:53] blockade on indefinitely. Um, but you [14:57] know, this battle over who's controlling [14:58] the street of Hormuz is a bit of a a [15:01] propaganda war. Like, you know, the you [15:03] know, Trump keeps saying, "We fully [15:04] control it." The Iranians say, "No, we [15:05] control it." And that's why they're [15:07] that's why the the Iranian regime always [15:09] publicizes when they attack vessels, [15:13] which which reminds us of the fact that [15:16] they're not interested. They're not [15:17] trying to pretend they're not attacking [15:18] vessels in the street of Hormuz. They're [15:20] saying they're attacking them. [15:23] you know, they don't want deescalation. [15:26] They actually don't want a ceasefire at [15:29] all. They want things to remain in a [15:33] state of escalation, in a state of sort [15:35] of ste or I shouldn't say escalation, in [15:38] this kind of like low boil, but like [15:40] still bubbling. They want the they want [15:42] the price they want the price of oil to [15:44] be as high as possible. They want the [15:46] economic pain on Trump. They want Trump [15:48] to look like a loser and look like [15:50] someone who failed, who's not achieving [15:51] his objectives. There, that is their [15:54] strategic goal right now. Right now, for [15:57] the next little while, their strategic [15:59] goal is make Trump lose the midterms, [16:03] weaken Trump. You know, like I'm I'm [16:06] sparring with someone and I don't know [16:09] if I'm gonna win and I don't but I see [16:11] down range that I could make him weaker [16:14] and then fight him on better terms. [16:16] That's better. That's what they're [16:17] doing. They're trying to weaken Trump in [16:19] the midterm so that they can get to the [16:22] other side of the midterms and and [16:23] they'll still be dealing with Trump, but [16:25] they'll be dealing with a more weakened [16:26] Trump. Uh that's what they're working to [16:29] do right now. So, they're not going to [16:31] make a deal. They do not want to make a [16:33] deal. Next time you hear anyone from the [16:34] administration say that the Iranians are [16:36] dying to make a deal, no, they are not. [16:38] I've said it many times, repeat after [16:40] me. They do not want to make a deal. [16:42] They want to negotiate. There's a big [16:44] difference. They want to negotiate [16:45] indefinitely, but they're not interested [16:47] in any deals. So, here we have this [16:49] headline. Oil prices fall after US says [16:52] crude exports through straightforward [16:55] moves near 9 million barrels a day. But [16:58] it's not so clear. Oil prices fell [17:00] Thursday, that's yesterday, after energy [17:02] secretary Chris Wright [17:04] claimed that exports through the [17:06] straight of Hormuz are higher than many [17:08] independent estimates. [17:10] Oil exports through Hormuz have neared a [17:12] 7-day average of 9 million barrels a [17:14] day. Wright said Wednesday exports from [17:17] the Gulf rise to around 1 point uh 15 [17:20] million barrels per day when pipeline [17:22] flows are included. He said [17:27] sorry about 20 million barrels per day [17:29] of oil and products move through Hormuz [17:31] before the war. Okay, so you got that. [17:34] 15 million barrels was the norm before [17:37] the war. The Americans are claiming it's [17:39] now nine, but the export data provided [17:42] by the energy secretary is much higher [17:44] than the estimates of many independent [17:46] firms. TD Securities, for example, has [17:48] put Hormuz exports at around 5 million [17:50] barrels per day. [17:53] This is nowhere near enough for the [17:54] market, [17:57] said Ryan McCay, director of commodity [17:59] strategy at a firm at the firm in a [18:01] Wednesday note. In other words, before [18:03] the war, it was 20 million. And the [18:05] pipelines were not used all that much [18:07] before the war. The like the Saudis have [18:09] this pipeline that has a capacity of [18:11] like 5 to 7 million barrels per day, but [18:13] they were barely using it before the [18:14] war. And now they've ramped up use of it [18:17] and they're trying to expand its its uh [18:19] its capacity. [18:22] But look what it says here. If it's [18:23] true, right, that there's 9 million [18:25] barrels per day transiting the straight [18:27] of moves. Plus, you also have um you [18:31] have uh the pipeline flows and it's not [18:35] just the Saudi East West pipeline. It's [18:37] also the Emirati. The Emiratis also have [18:39] a pipeline out of the Gulf. [18:42] So, that could get up to 15, which is [18:43] not so far off of the 20 million. I [18:45] mean, it's still it's 5 million barrels [18:46] per day. That's unaccounted for, but [18:48] it's not like the world is getting [18:49] choked. [18:51] Um but independent estimates have the [18:55] number not at 9 million that's coming [18:56] out now but more like five. Okay. So [18:59] there's some dispute about uh you know [19:01] this is this could be more of the Trump [19:03] administration's messaging trying to [19:05] always say everything's fine, [19:06] everything's fine. The straits are open. [19:08] Lots of oils coming out. Um Trump's [19:10] messaging consistently and those of his [19:12] deputies and that of his deputies has [19:14] been designed to push oil prices down. [19:17] So we have the energy secretary claiming [19:19] that nine billion 9 million barrels are [19:21] coming out every day. Maybe it's [19:24] accurate, maybe it's not accurate. They [19:25] say they have more accurate numbers. [19:28] Right? Like he says here, Wright said in [19:31] a social media post Wednesday that the [19:32] US military and Department of Energy [19:35] maintain the best available data related [19:37] to oil and oil products leaving the [19:38] Arabian Gulf. Uh so they say that they [19:41] that they that they know better, but uh [19:45] you see what the claim is. And on the [19:46] Iranian side, here's from Iranian state [19:48] media today from Tasnim. This is the [19:50] IRGC media outlet. IRGC Navy chief [19:55] straight remains closed. You see, [19:56] they're trying to project. So, it's not [19:59] just about what's actually happening. [20:00] It's also about the messaging. The [20:01] Iranians want to message that the [20:02] straight is closed. That'll make [20:04] shippers hesitant to use it. That also [20:07] that will bring down the amount of oil [20:08] coming out of the straight. That and, [20:10] you know, fire on a few ships here and [20:12] there, and that'll make oil prices go [20:14] up. The commander of the Islamic [20:15] Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy said, [20:17] "The Straight of Hormuz remains closed. [20:18] The Strait of Hormuz is closed. Our [20:20] control over movements is complete and [20:22] decisive." IRGC Navy commander Rear [20:25] Admiral Ali Ozami said, "No movement in [20:28] this straight escapes the eyes of the [20:30] IRGC Navy fighters. The reality should [20:32] be seen in the field, not in the [20:34] communicates and statements of US [20:35] officials." Okay, so we have a battle [20:37] between uh over over the messaging. The [20:40] big thing to look for right now, uh, in [20:42] my opinion, big thing to watch for is [20:45] what Scott Besson was talking about. And [20:47] he even put a date on it. He said, "Next [20:48] week. Next week." He says, "Watch, by [20:50] next week, we're going to ramp things [20:51] up. It's going to be totally different. [20:52] It's going to be economic isolation and [20:54] pressure like no one's ever seen [20:56] before." Okay, I'm interested. I'm [20:59] waiting. I got my popcorn. We're ready [21:00] to go. Let's see what the Americans have [21:02] in store. That's one thing we're looking [21:04] downrange for. We also need to talk [21:07] about the human rights abuses that are [21:08] going on in Iran. We should not forget [21:10] the Iranian people. And that's why I I [21:12] led off with um you know with that [21:15] journalist uh let's remember her name [21:18] again. Yalda Moayeri. [21:21] Yalda Moieri who has been uh sentenced [21:24] to 15 years in prison. Let's not forget [21:26] her. Uh but also the hardship of the [21:28] Iranian people. The economic hardship is [21:30] ratcheting up. This is not a uh um a [21:33] static situation and the economic [21:36] pressure, the pharmaceutical uh uh [21:38] shortages, the the lack of trade. We [21:42] talked about the uh the fuel shortages, [21:45] all of this helps in pushing pushing [21:49] things towards a point where the Iranian [21:52] people may very well actually rise up uh [21:55] or at least it it could play a role. So, [21:57] that's our Iran update for today. I hope [21:59] you found it useful. Uh that'll be it [22:01] for me for this week and uh keep [22:03] watching. Make sure you're signed up for [22:04] the webinar and God bless.
