Transcript [00:00] Are we going back to war or is there [00:02] going to be a deal? Where do things [00:04] stand? That's what we're going to get [00:05] into in this video. So, we all know that [00:08] a few days ago Trump said that they were [00:10] about to resume attacks and the Saudis [00:14] and the other Gulf states intervened and [00:17] Trump said, "Okay, fine. Well, you know, [00:19] we'll talk for another couple days." And [00:21] yesterday there was a new development [00:23] which you may have seen, but I want to [00:24] drill down in it and really talk about [00:26] what's happening behind the surface. So, [00:29] this was a story in Axios, "New Iran [00:31] peace proposal triggers tense [00:33] Trump-Netanyahu call." This has been [00:34] reported everywhere that there was this [00:37] tense call between Trump and Netanyahu. [00:40] "President Trump and Israeli Prime [00:41] Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed a [00:43] new effort to reach a deal with Iran in [00:45] a difficult call on Tuesday," three [00:47] sources said, with one source saying, [00:49] "Netanyahu's hair was on fire after the [00:51] call." A revised peace memo was drafted [00:54] by Qatar and Pakistan, lovely, with [00:58] input from the other regional mediators [01:00] to try to bridge the gaps between the US [01:02] and Iran, the sources said. It comes [01:04] with Trump vacillating over ordering a [01:06] massive strike on Iran [01:09] and holding out for a deal. Netanyahu is [01:11] highly skeptical about the negotiations [01:13] and wants to resume the war to further [01:15] degrade Iran's military capabilities and [01:18] weaken the regime by destroying its [01:19] critical infrastructure. Trump continues [01:21] to say he thinks a deal can be reached [01:24] but that he's ready to resume the war if [01:26] it isn't. [01:28] The only question is do we go and finish [01:29] it up or are they going to be signing a [01:31] document? Let's see what happens. [01:34] He said that the US and Iran were right [01:35] on the borderline between getting a deal [01:37] and resuming the war. Trump also said [01:39] Netanyahu will do whatever I want him to [01:40] do on Iran, which is probably true. [01:42] Netanyahu is not going to cross Trump at [01:44] this point. But we also said they had a [01:46] good relationship. The two leaders have [01:48] had temporary disagreements on Iran [01:50] before but have remained closely [01:52] coordinated throughout the war. Iran has [01:54] confirmed it's reviewing an updated [01:55] proposal but has not yet shown any signs [01:59] of flexibility. [02:00] Pakistan in Okay, look at this. [02:02] Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, [02:05] and Egypt have been working over the [02:07] last several days to refine the proposal [02:09] to bridge the gaps, the three sources [02:11] say. Now, I made a video earlier today. [02:13] Should be on the channel already. About [02:16] China's role in all of this. And I [02:17] pointed out that the original peace deal [02:20] peace deal No, I'm sorry. The original [02:22] ceasefire deal that brought Pakistan [02:25] into things that led to the ceasefire [02:27] that at the beginning of April was [02:29] actually written by the Chinese. It was [02:31] written in China with Foreign Minister [02:33] Wang Yi and the Pakistani guy working on [02:36] it together. And the Pakistani Foreign [02:38] Minister has said openly that he's been [02:40] in close daily coordination with the [02:42] Chinese since the beginning of the war. [02:44] They're not mentioned here. That's This [02:46] is all a cover [02:48] for what the Chinese are doing. They're [02:49] really pulling the strings behind the [02:50] scenes here. According to two Arab [02:52] officials and an Israeli source, Qatar [02:54] recently presented the US and Iran with [02:56] a new draft. A fourth source said there [02:59] is no separate Qatari draft, but the [03:00] Qataris are just trying to bridge the [03:02] gaps from the previous Pakistani [03:03] proposal. Okay, whatever. [03:06] Um [03:08] The goal of the new effort is to get [03:09] more tangible commitments from the [03:10] Iranians over steps regarding their [03:12] nuclear program and more specifics from [03:14] the US as to how frozen Iranian funds [03:17] would be gradually released, an Arab [03:19] official said. If this is true, [03:23] you know, I took a lot of heat in the [03:25] comments for [03:26] a video I made a few days ago talking [03:28] about how Trump is how Trump is getting [03:30] trapped and how he's getting played. And [03:32] all of these delay tactics [03:34] and what everyone is [03:37] all of these [03:38] actors that we've mentioned here, the [03:40] Qataris, the Saudis, Pakistanis, none of [03:43] them want the Iranian regime to fall. [03:45] There are different interests here. [03:47] Let's be very upfront. I said this from [03:50] before the war started. [03:53] And then when the war began, I said it [03:54] on various shows I was on and interviews [03:56] on Bannon's show, on on other shows that [03:59] I was on, I said it. I think I was on [04:00] TBN also on Stackelbeck tonight. I said [04:03] this on in a number of interviews that I [04:04] gave that we have to be very clear-eyed, [04:07] very very very clear-eyed that the [04:09] United States and Israel, as much as [04:10] they're cooperating, do not have the [04:12] same objectives in this war. And I [04:14] warned early on that at some point those [04:16] objectives would diverge [04:19] and Israel would be left out in the [04:21] cold. Israel there would be a point [04:23] where Israel would have or have to make [04:24] its own decisions because the war would [04:26] not go the way Israel wants it to. And [04:28] we are at that point potentially. It [04:31] doesn't mean that Trump will take this [04:33] route, but that is what all signals [04:36] point to right now. He talks about how [04:37] he wants a deal and if you're going to [04:38] start negotiating over releasing funds [04:40] and even signing a deal, there is no [04:42] such thing as a deal that means anything [04:46] with the Iranians or with any of these [04:47] other actors in the Middle East. Just [04:49] look at the history of deals between [04:51] each other between them and and each [04:53] other, between them and anyone else. [04:54] They never keep to any deal. So even if [04:56] you get a deal, let's say they get the [04:58] perfect deal that really satisfies the [05:00] United States and they go ahead and sign [05:01] it, doesn't mean anything. [05:04] It doesn't mean anything. [05:07] It's ridiculous. Anyway. [05:12] Uh as stated previously, Qatar has been [05:14] and continues to support the Pakistani [05:16] led mediation efforts. Of course they [05:18] do. [05:19] On Tuesday evening, Trump held a lengthy [05:21] and difficult call with Netanyahu. Trump [05:22] told Netanyahu that the mediators were [05:24] working on a letter of intent. This is [05:26] the most worrisome paragraph here. [05:28] On a [05:31] that both the US and Iran would sign [05:34] a letter of intent that both the US and [05:36] Iran would sign to formally end the war [05:38] and launch a 30-day period of [05:40] negotiations on issues like Iran's [05:43] nuclear program and opening the Strait [05:44] of Hormuz. [05:46] A US source briefed on the call said, [05:50] "This is the biggest gift in the world [05:53] to the Tehran regime if they do this." [05:57] Let's make an agreement to agree to talk [05:59] for 30 days about what we're going to be [06:01] negotiating about and then keep [06:03] negotiating. This is the Iranian play. [06:06] This is look, [06:08] again, it doesn't mean that Trump isn't [06:11] going to do the right thing in the end. [06:14] But if this goes forward, it is exactly [06:17] the Iranian playbook. It means that [06:18] they've that they're winning. It means [06:20] that they're getting what they want from [06:22] the situation. [06:27] The two Israeli sources said the two [06:28] leaders were in disagreement about the [06:30] way forward while the US source briefed [06:32] on the call said, "Bibi's hair was on [06:34] fire on fire after the call." The source [06:37] said Israel's ambassador to Washington [06:39] had told US lawmakers that Netanyahu was [06:41] concerned about the call, but then an [06:43] embassy spokesperson denied that he said [06:45] that. [06:48] Iran's foreign ministry said that in [06:50] order for talks to succeed the US would [06:51] have to end its piracy against Iranian [06:53] ships. [06:54] And then Trump said the war could resume [06:56] very quickly if we don't get the right [06:58] answer, but he was willing to give the [06:59] talks a few more days. So, there we go. [07:02] A few days. That's all Iran wants. [07:04] A few more days. A few more days. A few [07:06] more days. That's how they survive this [07:08] thing. And the way this is being [07:09] reported in Israel, this is from Ynet. [07:11] This is an article about the same [07:13] about the same phone call quoting the [07:15] Axios piece. [07:18] It says here, "The report said Israeli [07:19] officials are concerned that any rapid [07:22] agreement Trump signs to end the war [07:24] would not sufficiently remove the threat [07:26] posed by Iran's nuclear and missile [07:27] programs. [07:29] US intelligence has assessed that Iran [07:30] has managed to reopen many missile [07:32] depots that were blocked during the war [07:34] while enriched uranium reportedly [07:36] remains at the Isfahan nuclear site. [07:39] Trump was not persuaded by Netanyahu's [07:41] arguments according to the Wall Street [07:42] Journal, and made clear he still backed [07:44] diplomacy. [07:46] There's no such thing as effective [07:47] diplomacy with these guys. It's crazy. [07:49] He said he was seeking an agreement that [07:51] would prevent Iran from obtaining a [07:52] nuclear weapon, while not ruling out [07:54] renewed military action later. Remember [07:55] when this started and it was we're going [07:56] to get rid of the proxies and we're [07:58] going to stop them from abusing their [08:00] people [08:02] and the ballistic missiles are obviously [08:04] a big issue because they shield the [08:06] nuclear program and they're also a [08:07] threat and the nuclear program. [08:13] CNN reported that Trump told Netanyahu [08:14] he wanted to allow several more days for [08:16] a deal to emerge. [08:22] >> [sighs] [08:23] >> It's not good. [08:25] And meanwhile, Pakistan's army chief to [08:27] visit Tehran today. That's from today. [08:29] That's today today. Amid push for [08:31] US-Iran deal. Pakistan Pakistan's army [08:33] chief Asim Munir will travel to Tehran [08:35] today as part of ongoing Pakistani [08:37] mediation in talks and consultations [08:40] between Tehran and Washington over the [08:41] Iran war. [08:43] Pakistan's interior minister arrived in [08:44] Tehran yesterday for the second time in [08:46] less than a week [08:49] as they continue to push for an [08:50] agreement. And in Iranian state media, [08:53] Iran reviewing response to US proposal. [08:56] Informed sources say Tehran is currently [08:58] reviewing and preparing a response to [09:00] the proposal. [09:01] According to these sources, ongoing [09:03] talks in Tehran are centered on the [09:04] broader framework of a potential [09:06] agreement, [09:08] negotiate to negotiate to negotiate, [09:10] several technical details and [09:11] confidence-building measures. [09:15] When the ceasefire began, [09:17] Trump was saying I'm I want 100% of my [09:20] demands and basically was pressuring, [09:24] you know, we're going to have the [09:25] blockade and the whole idea was to get [09:27] them to surrender, to get them to come [09:29] to their knees and surrender [09:31] and [09:33] and that would basically be the end of [09:34] the regime [09:36] if they did so, [09:38] that was the concept. [09:40] That's not what we're seeing. [09:43] With the Qataris, Pakistanis, Egyptians, [09:46] Saudis all involved, who don't want the [09:48] regime to fall, [09:50] and then the Pakistani interior [09:52] minister, the interior minister keeps [09:54] visiting Iran, and they're talking about [09:56] how wonderful that is, and they call it [09:58] and his name is Mohsin Mohsin Naqvi, [10:00] Mohsin Naqvi, and he's Shiite, [10:03] uh and they talk about how wonderful his [10:05] continued visits are, [10:09] because the Pakistanis are really the [10:11] ones who are saving the Iranian regime. [10:13] And meanwhile, this is what Trump [10:16] obviously has his eye on. This is from [10:17] yesterday, US crude oil falls below 100 [10:19] per barrel after Trump says Iran talks [10:21] are in the final stages. [10:23] So, Trump always talks he always talks [10:25] positively, always talks optimistically [10:27] about [10:29] about how things are are coming to a [10:31] close and things are going to be over [10:32] soon and everything's going to be fine [10:33] and we're not going to, you know, not [10:35] going to be so much conflict, and part [10:37] of why he does that is the markets, is [10:38] the oil that the oil market as well. So, [10:40] it's hard to [10:42] it's hard to know exactly what Trump's [10:43] going to do. I mean, the [10:44] unpredictability, I've talked about [10:45] this, I've played that clip for you many [10:47] times from 2016 from the campaign, [10:50] where Trump says that his [10:52] United States foreign policy vis-a-vis [10:54] enemies must become unpredictable. And [10:57] you see that, Trump is deliberately [10:59] unpredictable. It's not because he's [11:00] confused, [11:02] but in this situation, his belief [11:05] in deals [11:07] is is is being used against him now. [11:12] Holding out the constant hope that [11:13] there's just a couple more days. Like, [11:15] what's going to change in a couple more [11:16] days? [11:18] Oh, for the last this was supposed to be [11:20] a 2-week ceasefire, right? It's now gone [11:22] on [11:23] 6 weeks. [11:26] Uh extension, extension. Oh, maybe [11:28] there'll be a deal. We're considering [11:29] the proposal. Let's Let's send back a [11:31] proposal. Let's see how he reacts. And [11:33] oh, I [11:33] And And then And then a phone call from [11:35] the Pakistanis. And then a phone call [11:36] from the Qataris. And then a phone call [11:37] from the Saudis. And let's just wait [11:39] another couple of days. And let's just [11:41] wait another couple of days. And then [11:43] let's Let's Let's sign an agreement to [11:45] negotiate for 30 days. This is And I [11:48] said this from the beginning. [11:51] This is the playbook of the Iranians. [11:54] And that's why again, a lot of people a [11:56] lot of you in the comments on my last [11:58] video saying Trump is trapped. I'm like, [11:59] "No, Trump is not trapped. What are you [12:00] talking about? This is Iranian [12:02] propaganda. What you you know, you're [12:04] just [12:07] It doesn't mean that he's going to make [12:08] the wrong decision. There are other [12:09] people who are pushing him in the [12:11] direction of finishing this thing. [12:13] Or General Jack Keane, who you see on [12:15] Fox all the time. [12:17] But the way this is going, the way he's [12:20] talking that he wants to come to a deal [12:22] and he's going to give it a few more [12:23] days. [12:25] These are very worrying signs. And it's [12:29] going to all In the end of the day, [12:30] Israel's going to have to make some [12:31] decisions on its own. What does it do? [12:34] What is Israel going to do? And you [12:35] notice the one name that wasn't [12:36] mentioned in any of these Arab countries [12:38] that are involved here. Mentioned [12:40] Saudis, Qataris, Egyptians, Pakistanis. [12:42] Didn't mention the UAE. [12:44] Right? Cuz the UAE is not part of this. [12:46] The UAE doesn't want this thing [12:48] uh [12:49] resolved in a way that leaves the regime [12:51] intact or leaves the regime in power. [12:54] And I'm going to end with this. I always [12:55] go back to this. Trump has been saying [12:57] over and over from the beginning of this [12:59] thing that he doesn't want to leave this [13:01] problem of the Iranian regime in the [13:02] hands of the next president. That 47 [13:05] years of presidents doing nothing about [13:07] it. [13:08] He's not going to be the one to do [13:09] nothing about it. So, if he ends up with [13:10] a deal that leaves the regime intact, [13:14] continuing to oppress their people, [13:15] continuing to have an international [13:17] global network, [13:20] how do you dismantle that [13:22] without bringing down the regime? [13:24] So, I don't know where where is going. [13:26] Again, Trump might still do the right [13:27] thing. Maybe this is all [13:29] the playbook of let's let negotiations [13:32] fully play out so no one can claim that [13:34] we didn't try and then you go ahead and [13:36] take them out. Maybe he still plans on [13:37] taking down the regime. I don't know. [13:40] But, where we are right now is a [13:43] worrisome situation. [13:45] That's my take. [13:46] God bless.
