Transcript [00:00] So, everything that the Iranians are [00:01] doing in Lebanon vis-a-vis President [00:04] Trump is working. I say this with a very [00:06] heavy heart. I love President Trump. I [00:08] can't even imagine the hellish dystopia [00:11] we'd be in if Kamala Harris had won. So, [00:13] this is not in any way, you know, people [00:15] should understand it's not all or [00:16] nothing. I'm a big fan of President [00:18] Trump and what he's done has been great. [00:20] However, he is botching this because he [00:23] still believes that there's something [00:25] like a deal that can be had with these [00:27] people and that's just not the way they [00:29] operate. [00:30] >> Welcome to this episode of Shoulder to [00:32] Shoulder, a podcast where a pastor and a [00:33] rabbi get to the heart of issues that [00:35] matter to people of faith. I'm Pastor [00:37] Doug Reed here with my friend Rabbi [00:38] Pesach Lickey and on this episode we're [00:41] going to be having a conversation all [00:43] about Lebanon, its history, and how [00:45] that's playing out today in the Middle [00:47] East. Before we jump into our [00:49] conversation, please like our Facebook [00:51] page and join our Facebook group, the [00:52] Shoulder to Shoulder community, where [00:54] you can interact with Pesach and me all [00:56] week long. The best way to support this [00:58] podcast is to come on over to Patreon [01:00] and subscribe to our Shoulder to [01:02] Shoulder page. For just $10 a month, [01:04] you're helping us bring this message of [01:06] Shoulder to Shoulder to more and more [01:07] people all around the world. As a thank [01:10] you for your $10 subscription, you get [01:11] exclusive access to chapter by chapter [01:13] Bible study beginning in Genesis chapter [01:16] 1 from Rabbi Pesach and myself. So, go [01:18] on over to Patreon, subscribe to [01:20] Shoulder to Shoulder for just $10 a [01:22] month. [01:23] We're grateful for our sponsor Israel [01:25] 365 News, which is the place for you to [01:27] go and get your news and information [01:28] before going to anyone else. Go on over [01:30] to Israel 365news.com [01:34] to check out some of their articles and [01:35] be sure to read Rabbi Pesach and my [01:37] columns. [01:39] Pesach, each and every week Israel 365 [01:41] has incredible initiatives and wonderful [01:43] products that we support. What are we [01:45] supporting today? [01:47] >> Every day lies about Israel spread [01:50] online faster than the truth can catch [01:53] up. Charlie Kirk saw this problem [01:54] clearly. [01:56] And a few months before he was murdered, [01:58] he had written a letter to Prime [01:59] Minister Netanyahu outlining some of the [02:01] things that Israel needs to do to push [02:03] back against the lies that are told [02:06] about it in media. [02:07] And a few months later, he and the team [02:09] at Israel 365 began building the [02:12] solution, a solution that Charlie named [02:15] called the Israel Truth Network. It's a [02:18] rapid response system delivering clear, [02:21] accurate, user-friendly content straight [02:24] to people who can use it for whatever [02:26] the lie du jour happens to be about [02:29] Israel, the Israel Truth Network puts [02:31] out very concise, clear, [02:36] uh, fact sheets that address the lies [02:39] and you can go there go to Israel Truth [02:41] I'm sorry, go to [02:42] theIsraelTruthNetwork.org, [02:44] all one long word, [02:46] theIsraelTruthNetwork.org [02:48] and sign up for daily [02:50] briefs and join the fight for truth. [02:52] When you get to the website, you look in [02:53] the top right corner, there's a button [02:55] that says sign up for the truth and [02:57] you'll see that there are all the recent [02:59] fact sheets. For example, one of the [03:01] recent ones was that Marjorie Taylor [03:03] Greene claimed that Israel destroyed a [03:05] monastery in Lebanon, which was false. [03:08] And there's also these spying [03:10] allegations that have made it through [03:11] the New York Times and some other [03:13] outlets and we address those. And [03:15] there's also some kind of evergreen [03:16] topics about, uh, foreign aid to Israel [03:19] and how it works regarding America, [03:22] uh, the lies about the Israel-Hamas war [03:25] in Gaza, lies about Israel's treatment [03:27] of Christians and other religious [03:29] groups. [03:30] And, uh, yeah, there's so there's [03:32] there's a wealth of information there [03:34] and [03:35] you know, you can really gain access to [03:38] very simple facts, talking points, [03:40] pushing back against the lies and we're [03:42] all involved in these conversations. [03:44] People spread lies about Israel and if [03:45] you want to know where to go to find the [03:47] answers for all those challenges, for [03:50] all those, uh, all those conspiracies [03:53] about Israel, you can find it at [03:55] theisraeltruthnetwork.org. [03:58] >> Super important, super important. We [04:00] want you to have the most factual [04:02] information, so go on over there and [04:04] check it out. [04:06] Well, Pesach, we are in the midst of [04:09] both of us could get a siren during this [04:12] podcast as Iran has begun shooting [04:14] missiles back at Israel and I am in [04:16] Missouri and we are under a tornado [04:18] watch right now. So, we'll just we'll [04:20] just keep recording even if one of us [04:22] has to you you're going to run to the [04:23] bomb shelter and I might have to get the [04:25] kids and go to the basement. [04:26] >> Well, Doug, I got you covered. I got you [04:28] covered because the studio that I'm in [04:30] right now is actually in the bomb [04:32] shelter in this in this home. [04:34] >> So, you don't have to go anywhere. [04:35] >> I don't have to go anywhere. Whenever [04:36] you see me with this background, I'm [04:37] actually in the bomb shelter. I turned [04:39] it into a studio. It's a great room for [04:41] a studio. Although, if there is an air [04:42] raid siren, it will get interrupted cuz [04:44] my wife will barge in here and join us [04:47] in the bomb shelter, so [04:49] I'll be careful not to get her on [04:50] camera, but yeah. So, it it was [04:53] interesting. Let me just share a little [04:54] bit. You know, yesterday when the [04:57] Iranians started launching rockets at [04:59] Israel and there were air raid sirens [05:00] all over the country, we got one where I [05:02] am now and where I happen to be located [05:04] is in the south of Israel. I happen to [05:05] be in Ashkelon. [05:07] Uh my wife and I are in the process of [05:09] moving of relocating to Ashkelon and in [05:11] about a year from now we'll be here [05:12] full-time. We now split our time between [05:14] Beit Shemesh and Ashkelon. And Ashkelon [05:16] is really far south, so when there's [05:18] rocket fire in the north, [05:20] we we don't get air raid sirens and even [05:23] when Iran fires ballistic missiles, even [05:25] during the whole war after February 28th [05:27] and those you know, 38 or 40 days of [05:31] rocket fire, Ashkelon got very few air [05:33] raid sirens because we're just not in [05:35] the main center of the country and the [05:38] Iranians want to get the most bang for [05:39] their buck, so they always fire the [05:40] rockets at the most heavily populated [05:42] centers. So, if you're in the Tel Aviv [05:44] area, you get [05:45] air raid sirens. During that war, they [05:47] got the air raid sirens the most. [05:50] And these missiles from Iran were really [05:52] targeted towards the northern half of [05:53] the country and it was a little strange. [05:55] I was surprised that we got an air raid [05:56] siren, but it then turned out that the [05:58] Houthis joined in and the rocket that [06:00] was fired in our direction was actually [06:01] coming from Yemen. So, yeah, never a [06:04] dull moment in the Middle East and the [06:05] Iranians, you know, decided to you know, [06:08] to lash out. And I think it has [06:10] everything to do with the topic we're [06:11] going to discuss today that we'll get [06:12] into soon about Lebanon, but before we [06:14] get to that, Doug, [06:16] give us an update on the Reed family [06:19] journey through America. [06:21] >> Yes, we did a 1,000 mile drive from [06:24] Buffalo to Missouri. It took 2 days. We [06:28] were in the car a lot. We [06:30] We stopped in Indianapolis. We stopped [06:32] in Cleveland. We stopped in St. Louis [06:35] and got to enjoy some sights, but the [06:38] most fascinating thing happened in St. [06:40] Louis. I stopped and saw a friend of [06:42] mine, Reinhardt, who you've actually [06:44] met. He was on a 2022 [06:47] Eagles Wings Pastors Trip. And we we [06:51] walked to the Western Wall. His roommate [06:53] and Elijah Page were on our podcast [06:57] that night sitting in the park. But Ryan [07:00] was with us on that trip and so I shot [07:01] him a text. I was about an hour out from [07:03] St. Louis and I was like, you know what? [07:05] He pastors in St. Louis. I wonder if we [07:07] could, you know, grab lunch or say [07:09] hello. We need to stop anyway and use [07:11] the restroom. So, I shot him a text and [07:13] he was like, you have to stop by. [07:15] So, came to his church. He has a brand [07:17] new building. Gave me the nickel tour. [07:19] We got out, used the restroom and he [07:21] insisted, you know, let me take you guys [07:23] to lunch. So, we go to this nice [07:25] restaurant not far from his church. [07:28] Sit down. It was great to be out of the [07:29] car. [07:30] You know, the kids we order some food [07:33] and we were just catching up. I was [07:35] telling him about moving to Israel. He [07:37] was telling me about the you know, new [07:38] stuff going on in his church. And while [07:40] we were sitting there, he had a hat on [07:43] that said he still does miracles and I [07:45] had a hat on that said pray. [07:47] There was this group of retired, [07:49] probably in their 60s or 70s, gentlemen [07:51] sitting there and they were wrapping up [07:53] their lunches we had just ordered our [07:54] food. So they came over and one of the [07:57] gentlemen struck up a conversation said [07:59] wow, I really like your hat. We must [08:01] share similar values. [08:02] And Ryan said oh, I pastor the church [08:05] down the road. This is my friend Pastor [08:06] Doug. He's pastored in Buffalo these [08:09] last few years and is now moving to [08:10] Israel. And he said oh my goodness, what [08:12] are you down here for? And I explained I [08:14] said I'm I'm going to some [08:15] denominational meetings in Springfield. [08:17] I'm just passing through and I I reached [08:19] out to my friend to grab lunch and he [08:21] goes well, you guys are not paying for [08:23] lunch today. My friends and I are going [08:25] to buy you lunch and he yelled over to [08:26] his buddies and said hey, these pastors [08:28] are coming through. We're buying lunch [08:29] today boys. And this was not a cheap [08:32] bill. I mean there were 10 of us at the [08:33] table including my kids. Ryan had [08:35] brought some of his church staff. [08:37] And so and this was a rather nice [08:40] restaurant. And so he invites his buddy [08:43] Andy over who shook all of our hands and [08:45] said hello and [08:46] I didn't put two and two together just [08:48] yet. And so we continue with our meal. [08:51] They wrap up and he says hey, when you [08:53] guys are done we'd love to hear about [08:55] what you're doing. Really want to hear [08:56] about Israel. [08:57] And so we come over and we sit down with [08:59] these guys for I don't know 35 40 [09:01] minutes after our meal. They're enamored [09:03] with the Israel story asking all kinds [09:06] of questions asking they got into a [09:08] little bit of geopolitics. We talked a [09:09] little bit Trump and a little bit about [09:11] what we thought about Iran and the war [09:13] and all of that. [09:15] But the it was fascinating because the [09:17] one guy was Catholic. One guy didn't [09:19] really go to church and the others had [09:22] you could tell varying religious [09:24] backgrounds but they all were pretty [09:26] pro-Israel. We're pretty interested in [09:29] the perspective that we had on it. They [09:31] were asking really great questions. And [09:33] so we spent about a half hour just [09:35] discussing [09:36] Israel and and what our family is [09:38] getting ready to do and at the end of it [09:40] they were like, well, how do we stay in [09:41] touch? And so we we gave them we had a [09:43] prayer card that we we developed through [09:45] the season. So we gave them each a [09:46] prayer card and they they said, sure, [09:48] you know, we'll pray. [09:49] And we're getting up to leave and a [09:50] couple of the guys had already left and [09:52] the gentleman who had initially [09:54] approached us said, I don't know if you [09:56] guys recognize this or know this, but I [09:59] didn't want to say anything while he was [10:00] here cuz he doesn't like this, but the [10:02] guy who bought you lunch is major league [10:04] all-star Andy Van Slyke. [10:06] And he was very fascinated with your [10:08] story and I was like, oh my goodness. So [10:11] I immediately pull it up on my phone to [10:13] show my kids and explain who he was [10:15] because they were and then my boys were [10:17] like, oh, we should have gotten a [10:18] picture, we should have gotten an [10:19] autograph. And I was like, I totally [10:21] would have done that, but his buddy [10:22] waited for him to leave to tell us who [10:24] exactly he was and and so Andy Van Slyke [10:28] enjoyed sitting around with a bunch of [10:29] his buddies hearing us talk about Israel [10:31] and bought us all lunch. It was I think [10:35] he played for the Cardinals and the [10:36] Phillies and [10:38] >> He he he he [10:39] he played for the Pirates. He played for [10:41] the Cardinals and the Pirates. This [10:43] brings me back to my old expertise, you [10:45] know, my uh [10:46] >> Yes. [10:46] >> A lot of our I don't know if a lot of [10:48] our listeners realize that uh for much [10:50] of my life I was obsessed [10:53] with baseball and baseball history and [10:55] and our producer Scott and I actually [10:57] had a podcast called the Baseball Rabbi. [10:59] You could still find the archives [11:00] online. [11:01] Uh it's really it's for very serious [11:03] baseball fans. So there's still a lot of [11:06] baseball information in this head of [11:07] mine. I don't follow baseball anymore. [11:09] That's a whole other story. [11:11] Uh but uh no, he he did not play for the [11:13] Phillies. He played for the St. Louis [11:14] Cardinals and the Pittsburgh Pirates. I [11:15] think those are the only two teams he [11:17] played for. [11:18] Um although he he later coached for some [11:21] other teams. Oh no, he played he uh [11:24] let's see. [11:25] He might I think at the very end of his [11:27] career, I'm looking here, [11:29] he played [11:29] >> When I was a kid, I'm pretty sure he [11:31] played for Philly one season. [11:33] >> I think at the very end of his career. [11:35] Let's look it up right now real quick. [11:37] And then get to our main topic. We don't [11:39] want to bore the our audience too much [11:41] with what's going on here, but let's see [11:42] what it says here. Andy Van Slyke. [11:45] Uh yeah, and he and he was he was a [11:46] phenomenal center fielder and he played [11:47] for some great you know, the last really [11:49] great Pittsburgh Pirate teams of the of [11:52] the 1990s and the early part of Barry [11:54] Bonds' career. He was he was [11:55] outstanding. Uh yeah, he played he [11:58] played a grand total of [12:01] 63 games for the Phillies in the final [12:03] season of his career. [12:05] Uh so, yeah, kind of at the end of the [12:07] line. He did spend he spent a couple [12:10] months with the Philadelphia Phillies. [12:11] You your memory is correct, Doug. [12:13] >> Yeah, my boys were totally excited and [12:17] wish they they could have known who he [12:19] was when they met him, but it was it was [12:21] still a very cool experience and it was [12:23] very neat. Just a random [12:25] restaurant bar in St. Louis sharing the [12:28] Israel journey with people and finding [12:31] allies along the way and people that are [12:33] championing this cause and I I thought [12:35] it was absolutely incredible. [12:37] >> That's really cool. Well, I I hope you [12:39] stay in touch with them and can bring [12:40] them on on a on a trip to Israel one [12:42] day. [12:43] That'll be great. [12:44] >> I'll have to have a special rabbi join [12:46] us for that. I'm sure he'd really like [12:47] that. [12:48] >> Absolutely. [12:50] >> Very cool. Well, there's lots going on [12:53] in the world obviously, you know, more [12:55] important than my thousand mile journey [12:58] to Missouri. [12:59] Iran yesterday. This is Monday the 8th. [13:02] Iran shot [13:04] missiles towards Israel and now Israel [13:07] has responded and we're in the midst of [13:09] wondering what's going on. President [13:11] Trump has issued a statement asking both [13:13] sides to knock it off. You shot your [13:14] missiles, just relax. [13:16] It seems as if [13:18] Israel's not going to tolerate any [13:20] further aggression regardless of what [13:22] President Trump says. And so, it's a [13:24] very volatile time right now, moment in [13:28] the Middle East. But it all began [13:30] because according to Iran, it all began [13:33] because Israel took out some Hezbollah [13:36] leadership and shot some [13:40] you know, sent some airplanes, sent some [13:42] drones and and whatever else towards [13:44] Beirut and handled some things there. [13:47] What what exactly is happening? What [13:50] have you been going through? You [13:51] mentioned Ashkelon, you having to go to [13:53] the bomb shelter because of missiles [13:55] from Yemen. But how are you doing and [13:57] what's happening on the ground? [14:00] >> Oh, we're doing fine here. You know, in [14:01] terms of what's happening on the ground, [14:03] I do currently have a son in Lebanon. [14:06] And you know, Hezbollah has been firing [14:09] at us, [14:10] has been firing at at Israel since [14:14] the the official ceasefire with Lebanon [14:18] with with Hezbollah began on April 17th. [14:21] About [14:23] about a week after the ceasefire began [14:26] between the United States and Iran. [14:29] And ever since then Hezbollah has fired [14:31] literally thousands of rockets and [14:33] drones at Israel under even though we're [14:35] officially in a ceasefire. [14:37] And President Trump has been trying to [14:39] tie Israel's hands. [14:41] Strategically speaking, I'll just say [14:43] very briefly, but I'm going to get back [14:45] to this at the end because I have a lot [14:46] to say about this situation. [14:49] I think President Trump is completely [14:50] miscalculating [14:52] handling [14:54] the handling of Lebanon. [14:56] Because [14:58] by by trying to tie Israel's hands [15:00] because he believes that he has a better [15:02] chance of getting a deal with the [15:04] Iranians, he's actually handing a gift [15:06] to the Iranians. [15:08] Because the Iranians aren't really [15:10] interested in making a deal. They're [15:12] interested in showing that they have [15:13] leverage, showing that they still have [15:16] some power. [15:17] And when President Trump tells Prime [15:19] Minister Netanyahu to to de-escalate. [15:23] He's [15:25] He's actually making it [15:27] He he's giving leverage to the Iranians [15:29] and taking it away from himself. [15:32] If on the other hand, President Trump [15:33] gave a free hand to Israel to hammer [15:36] Hezbollah, that would actually put [15:39] pressure on the Iranian regime in the [15:41] same way the blockade that President [15:43] Trump put on the Iranian regime puts [15:44] pressure on them. The fact that Look, [15:46] let me back up. The Iranian [15:49] The Iranian negotiating strategy [15:52] and it's not just in this one [15:53] negotiation. If you can go back decades [15:55] and see that this is always their [15:56] negotiating strategy is to always give [15:59] whoever they're negotiating with a a a [16:01] sense that a that a deal is potentially [16:06] coming if the conditions are just right. [16:09] And they kind of lure them along and [16:11] lure them along and they drag things out [16:13] and they play for time. Why do they play [16:15] for time? Why does time necessarily [16:17] benefit them? Well, because they know [16:19] how Westerners think and they know that [16:21] when Westerners are in a negotiation, [16:24] it's just the way their brains work. [16:26] Westerners believe number one that [16:28] compromise for the sake of a deal is a [16:30] virtue. And that's not how Persians [16:33] think. That's not how they think in that [16:35] part of the world. [16:36] And they don't view compromise as a [16:39] virtue and as trust building. They view [16:42] compromise as a sign of weakness that [16:44] you don't have the resolve to to be [16:47] victorious and that's why you [16:48] compromise. [16:50] And but they know that because [16:51] Westerners believe in compromise [16:54] principally that if they wait and simply [16:57] wait and simply wait and wait and wait [16:59] and then wait a little bit more and keep [17:01] kicking the can down the road, the [17:02] longer things drag out, the more [17:04] Westerners are inclined to re-evaluate [17:08] their position and maybe look for areas [17:10] where they can compromise and say, [17:11] "Well, you know, it's gone on so long. [17:13] We're at an impasse. Maybe if I just [17:15] modify this demand or modify that demand [17:18] or giving a little bit on this, we can [17:20] move forward. And then suddenly the [17:21] Iranians go, "Oh yes, yes, that will [17:23] give us a breakthrough." And then and [17:24] then the Westerners get all happy that [17:26] they've made a breakthrough and then the [17:27] Iranians string them on a little bit [17:28] more with the next demand. That's the [17:31] way they operate and that's what they're [17:32] doing in this in this deal here. How do [17:34] you break that? [17:36] You break that by by making time not [17:39] work to their benefit. The only way for [17:41] time to not work to their benefit is if [17:44] number one, you're really ironclad about [17:46] not budging from your demands, but the [17:48] but even that alone won't do it. The [17:50] only way to really take the time lever [17:52] back is to make time work against them. [17:55] So you do that by doing things like a [17:58] crippling blockade. And the the American [18:00] blockade, that's another problem, is [18:01] actually much leakier. And Trump loves [18:04] to say that it's that it's hermetic and [18:05] that nothing's getting through. That's [18:07] absolutely false. There are overland [18:09] routes from Pakistan that are bringing [18:11] in goods from China. There are routes [18:12] from the north that America hasn't [18:14] handled. There's a lot of ways things [18:15] are getting into Iran. So it's a pretty [18:17] it's become leakier as time has passed. [18:19] That's one issue. [18:21] But also the other way you take it back [18:23] from them is with Israel escalating in [18:26] Lebanon. If Israel is destroying [18:28] Hezbollah and and Iran fears that [18:31] there's a real chance that they will [18:33] lose [18:35] that there's a real chance that they [18:37] will lose their their iron grip on [18:39] Lebanon that they've had for decades [18:41] because Hezbollah's getting destroyed. [18:42] Their biggest asset, their biggest asset [18:46] outside of Iran is Hezbollah. And if [18:48] they feel that if they see Hezbollah [18:50] getting destroyed, that actually puts [18:52] pressure on them and leads them to [18:54] believe that time is not on their side. [18:56] That's what you need to do. So Trump is [18:57] completely mishandling this. [18:59] And he's and the Iranians, I read [19:01] Iranian state media every day, Doug. And [19:04] every day they're crowing over the fact [19:06] that every time Trump criticizes [19:08] Netanyahu or pressures Netanyahu to back [19:11] off, they view it as a as a victory of [19:14] theirs that Trump is doing their bidding [19:18] and by pressuring Israel and creating [19:22] tension between Israel and the United [19:23] States is also part of their strategy. [19:25] So, everything that the Iranians are [19:27] doing in Lebanon vis-a-vis President [19:30] Trump is working. I say this with a very [19:32] heavy heart. I love President Trump. I [19:34] can't even imagine the hellish dystopia [19:37] we'd be in if Kamala Harris had won. So, [19:38] this is not in any way you know people [19:41] should understand it's not all or [19:42] nothing. I'm a big fan of President [19:44] Trump and what he's done has been great. [19:46] However, he is botching this because he [19:49] still believes that there's something [19:51] like a deal that can be had with these [19:53] people and that's just not the way they [19:55] operate. [19:56] Um, you know [19:57] >> Well, I think it's interesting though [19:59] because we've talked about this before. [20:00] President Trump will say lots of things [20:03] and then [20:05] he ends up doing a lot of the right [20:07] things eventually. He maybe doesn't get [20:10] there right away, but he gets there [20:12] eventually. And I will say even with [20:14] some of the initial rhetoric, I read a [20:15] report just before we hopped on that [20:18] Israel is coordinating with CENTCOM and [20:21] the US obviously [20:23] either approved or greenlit some of the [20:27] strikes and attacks that they were going [20:28] to do. They didn't do them completely in [20:30] the dark. There was some sort of [20:31] collaboration. So, it's not a full [20:34] full-throated. A a lot of what he's [20:36] saying publicly, I wonder if it's [20:37] posturing and trying to get the Iranians [20:41] to the table and maybe there's something [20:42] happening behind the scenes, but I I [20:44] don't um [20:46] I don't like the rhetoric, but I [20:47] understand uh your point. I'm just [20:50] pointing out that previously he said a [20:52] lot of things that eventually he got to [20:54] the right answer. [20:55] >> I I agree with you on that and I and I [20:57] continue to fall back on the fact that [21:00] Trump has said repeatedly that he does [21:02] not want to leave the [21:04] the regime, the Iranian mullah regime [21:07] problem for a later president to deal [21:09] with. [21:10] And he's going to be very sensitive [21:11] about his legacy, [21:13] but at the same time it is it is uh [21:16] inescapable that he's looking for an [21:18] off-ramp here and certainly does not [21:20] want to go back to kinetic action. I'll [21:21] make a point that I've said in a couple [21:23] of recent interviews that I did. [21:25] I was on the Aaron Klein Show last week [21:27] and I said this there [21:30] that the [21:31] the incentives to go back to military [21:36] action are moving in opposite directions [21:39] for Prime Minister Netanyahu and for [21:40] President Trump. Let me explain what I [21:42] mean. [21:44] As we get closer to the midterms, [21:47] and also because of polling in the [21:49] United States and how unpopular um [21:52] military action is, [21:56] and I have to say the American [21:57] electorate seems pretty fickle about [21:59] Iran. Like they don't want Iran to have [22:00] a nuclear weapon, but they don't want to [22:01] go to war, but they or they're in favor [22:03] or they're okay with some strikes, but [22:05] they don't want to they don't want it to [22:06] cost them anything. Like [22:08] it's that's a separate issue. But the [22:11] fact is that Trump is dealing with a [22:12] situation where kinetic military [22:14] activity at this point and with every [22:16] day we get closer to the midterms, even [22:18] more so, is a bad idea for him [22:20] politically. On the other hand, for [22:23] Prime Minister Netanyahu, [22:25] it is just the opposite. Just literally [22:29] it's the opposite. The closer we get to [22:30] elections, the more the pressure on [22:32] Prime Minister Netanyahu mounts to go [22:34] back to military action and to escalate [22:37] because the Israeli public and the [22:38] Israeli public [22:41] kind of feels like there's unfinished [22:43] business everywhere. We still have Hamas [22:45] in Gaza, we still have Hezbollah in [22:46] Lebanon, we still have the Iran [22:47] situation is still an open-ended thing, [22:49] we still have soldiers being killed, and [22:51] Israelis want more escalation. And this [22:54] is not a right-wing position. One of the [22:55] most fascinating things about what's [22:57] happened politically in Israel since the [23:00] you know, as this Lebanon situation has [23:01] really come to a head in the last week [23:04] is that [23:06] with President Trump pressuring [23:07] Netanyahu not to strike Beirut and not [23:10] to retaliate now against Iran, all of [23:13] this de-escalation pressure coming from [23:15] President Trump, [23:17] the criticism in Israel politically from [23:19] the right of Netanyahu and from the left [23:22] is identical. [23:24] Meaning even the left-wing political [23:27] figures are attacking Netanyahu for [23:32] for giving in to Trump's demand and not [23:35] ramping up and not escalating against [23:37] Hezbollah in the north. Meaning they [23:39] could have had a different criticism. [23:40] They could criticize Netanyahu by saying [23:42] you should never have gone in there to [23:43] begin with. Why did you antagonize [23:45] Trump? Meaning they could have had a [23:47] They could have had a more kind of like [23:49] peacenik left-wing type of criticism, [23:51] but they don't. The criticism's [23:52] identical, and that's not reflective of [23:54] their integrity or that's that's [23:56] reflective of where the Israeli people [23:58] are. That the politicians in Israel know [24:00] that there's a national consensus [24:02] that there's that they want more [24:04] escalation. And when you get into [24:06] electoral politics, Netanyahu [24:09] Netanyahu's legacy is harmed by him not [24:14] returning to kinetic action and and [24:16] getting closer to finishing the job in [24:19] any of these arenas. So, we have a [24:21] situation where the gap between [24:24] President Trump's incentives and and [24:27] Prime Minister Netanyahu's incentives [24:29] will widen as we get closer to these two [24:32] elections because they both have [24:33] elections coming up [24:35] in the fall. [24:37] Now, this brings us to the whole Lebanon [24:38] situation that we're dealing with here, [24:40] and that's really what I wanted to drill [24:41] drill down on today, Doug. [24:43] >> Yeah, well, I was going to say [24:45] for some of our listeners, you're [24:46] probably wondering what does Lebanon [24:48] have to do with Iran. You know, [24:51] Hezbollah's this terrorist organization, [24:52] but we've said on Shoulder to Shoulder [24:54] before Hezbollah is a wing of the [24:57] Iranian military. They they well they're [25:00] a terrorist organization, they are [25:02] funded, they are ordered by, they are [25:05] given directions by Iran. And so to [25:08] understand what's happening in Lebanon [25:11] wholesale and what President Trump's [25:14] trying to broker with a peace deal [25:15] between Israel and Lebanon and and a [25:18] ceasefire and all of this and what [25:20] Hezbollah has to do with it and Iran we [25:22] we need to get into probably some of the [25:24] history and background to [25:26] what Lebanon is as a country. [25:29] >> When we're thinking about what to talk [25:30] about on today's podcast, I really felt [25:33] that the whole issue of Lebanon needs to [25:36] be talked about as you just said in a [25:38] more historical fashion to really give [25:39] the background information because one [25:41] of the problems with all the headlines [25:42] about this is that everyone talks about [25:44] the immediate. Oh, you know, Hezbollah [25:46] refuses to disarm, the Lebanese [25:49] president and prime minister are calling [25:51] for them to disarm and Lebanon's [25:52] negotiating with Israel for some sort of [25:54] peace deal, but Hezbollah is also there [25:56] and they're refusing and the Iranians [25:58] say that you you know, they want the [25:59] Israel to stop striking Hezbollah [26:02] and that's all the day-to-day, [26:05] but [26:06] why can't the Lebanese government get [26:08] rid of Hezbollah? What is the [26:10] relationship between them? So this is [26:11] why I want to take a step back. I want [26:13] to spend a few minutes and I made a [26:15] video about this on the Israel 365 News [26:18] YouTube channel. So some of our [26:19] listeners might have seen that video, [26:21] but it was months ago and it really [26:23] bears repeating especially with with [26:24] Lebanon becoming so central to [26:26] everything going on now. So if you'll [26:28] indulge me, I'm going to go ahead and [26:31] I'll start explaining what this is all [26:32] about. [26:33] So in order to understand why Lebanon is [26:36] such a chaotic mess, [26:39] we really need to go back to the [26:41] beginning and to understand their [26:43] governmental structure. Now, [26:45] there's there are elections in Lebanon, [26:47] it's technically a democracy, but as [26:50] you'll see as I explain this, it's a [26:51] democracy if if you can call it a [26:53] democracy, it's a country is a [26:55] governmental structure that is unlike [26:58] any other in the world. So, let's start [27:02] with this. Up until World War I, [27:05] there was no such thing as a country [27:07] called Lebanon. [27:08] And when I say there was no such thing, [27:10] that's not a temporary thing because [27:12] they got invaded and taken over by [27:13] someone else. There was never any such [27:17] thing as a country called Lebanon, [27:19] just like there was no such thing as a [27:20] country called Syria, there was no such [27:22] thing as a country called Iraq, there [27:24] was no such thing as Jordan. All of [27:26] these countries that we know today as [27:27] the Middle East, all these borders [27:30] between these different countries that [27:31] from that we're familiar with, did not [27:33] exist for centuries and centuries and [27:36] centuries. This whole area [27:39] was just this open area that was part of [27:43] well, at least from 15 16 till 19 till [27:47] the till the early 20th century, [27:50] this area was part of the Ottoman [27:52] Empire. Before that, there were various [27:54] other groups that passed through here [27:56] and took control of it for a period of [27:58] time, but there were no clear borders. [28:00] There was certainly no nations, there [28:02] was no states, okay? And that's so [28:04] important to remember. [28:06] Let me say this very clearly. Before the [28:09] 1920s, there was no one in the world who [28:12] ever said, "I'm Syrian" or "I'm Iraqi" [28:17] or "I'm Jordanian." There was no such [28:20] thing. Those are not ethnic groups, [28:22] those are not religious groups, those [28:24] are not identities that everyone ever [28:26] said they had. Those are the names of of [28:29] geographical regions, mountainous areas, [28:32] desert areas, they have names. [28:35] And in the old maps of the Ottoman [28:37] Empire, in the maps that the British [28:39] were using around the turn of the [28:40] century, the entire area that today is [28:43] called Jordan, Israel, Lebanon, Syria, [28:46] all of that was simply called Southern [28:48] Syria. [28:50] Okay? And Syria was just the name of a [28:51] region. [28:52] >> And so they identified more with their [28:54] tribes, more with their ethnicities than [28:56] they [28:56] >> Exactly. Well, and there was no real [28:58] borders. People could move around freely [29:00] within the Ottoman Empire. [29:02] Which is another thing. Like you know, [29:03] when people talk about this this goes [29:05] into another topic, which is oh, the [29:07] Palestinian people, which is like there [29:09] were no peoples here. There was no There [29:11] was no Jordanian people. There was no [29:12] Syrian people. There was no Lebanese [29:13] people. These people people groups [29:15] didn't exist. It was just there were [29:18] there were people who moved around [29:19] within the Ottoman Empire and there were [29:21] different regions. [29:23] And there were different Ottoman [29:23] officials who governed different areas [29:26] with different towns and sort of kept [29:28] control of them, but there were no [29:29] borders here. [29:30] When the Ottoman Empire fell at the end [29:32] of World War I, [29:34] the British and the French carved up the [29:37] area. [29:38] And [29:40] the British took control of certain [29:41] portions of it, the French took control [29:43] of other portions of it, but they [29:44] basically took out a map, put it on a [29:46] table, and drew lines. And that's why [29:48] you have straight lines as some of the [29:51] borders between these countries. If you [29:52] look at a map of the Middle East and you [29:54] look for example at the borders of [29:55] Jordan, it has like a right angles in it [29:58] and long straight lines. That's [30:00] obviously not a natural border. You look [30:02] out in the world, you step outside and [30:03] look at topography, that's obviously not [30:06] a normal border. That's a border drawn [30:07] in an office by someone who has who who [30:09] isn't on the ground at all. [30:11] And they carved up the area. The reason [30:14] that the Kurds [30:16] don't have a state is that when this [30:18] carving up of the area was happening, [30:20] the Kurds had so much infighting among [30:23] themselves that they couldn't decide who [30:24] was going to represent them, and the [30:26] French and the British got fed up with [30:28] them and said, "Okay, you're out." And [30:30] that's why there's no Kurdistan. By the [30:31] way, this is just a as a sidebar, this [30:34] entire area [30:35] that we know today as the Middle East [30:37] was just being chopped up. [30:40] Okay? [30:41] That's what's happening at a conference [30:43] called the Sykes-Picot [30:45] conference, the Sykes-Picot agreement. [30:47] And then there was a later conference [30:49] that was a follow-up to it called the [30:50] San Remo conference. It was during the [30:52] 1920s that they were carving up the [30:54] Ottoman Empire. The French took control [30:56] of Syria and what what what we call [30:58] today Syria and Lebanon, and then they [31:00] carved it up into states. But here's [31:02] what happened with Lebanon. There was an [31:04] area called Lebanon before this within [31:07] the Ottoman Empire, but it was a much [31:09] smaller area than what we call today [31:11] Lebanon. [31:12] It's an area which is inside Lebanon [31:15] today called Mount Lebanon. So whenever [31:18] people use the term Lebanon, like in the [31:19] Bible when it talks about Hal Lebanon, [31:21] Lebanon, you see there's a Lebanon, it's [31:23] talking about Mount Lebanon. Which is a [31:26] little bit east of Beirut. And it's [31:29] north of what we consider today the [31:30] southern part of Lebanon. [31:32] It's it's a section of Lebanon today. [31:35] And the reason it had its own identity [31:37] as an area is that it was almost [31:40] entirely Christian within the Muslim [31:42] Ottoman Empire. And the Christians in [31:45] Mount Lebanon, the Maronite Christians, [31:46] came to an agreement with the Ottomans [31:49] that they could govern themselves [31:52] civilly within the Ottoman Empire. So [31:55] there was like this Christian enclave in [31:57] Mount Lebanon of self-governance within [32:00] the Ottoman Empire. Okay? That's what [32:02] existed before 1920. [32:05] When when the British and the French [32:06] started carving up the Ottoman Empire to [32:08] create these brand new states, [32:11] they carved they drew a much bigger line [32:15] to make the border between Lebanon and [32:18] the British controlled area to the south [32:20] of it, which was which the British [32:22] called Palestine. And that was a British [32:24] term, no one else used that that term [32:26] for the place. Everyone else called it [32:28] southern Syria. The Arabs called it [32:30] southern Syria. Palestine was the [32:32] British term. [32:33] >> Wasn't it Transjordan at one point as [32:35] well? [32:35] >> Transjordan is a name for a piece of [32:37] Palestine, meaning the area that is [32:39] today Jordan and Israel was all called [32:43] Palestine by the British. It was the [32:45] area that they took control of. And then [32:47] when they divided that, the other side [32:50] of the Jordan River, Transjordan, [32:53] the other side of the Jordan, was the [32:55] name they gave to the piece of Palestine [32:57] that they cut off of the west side of [33:00] the Jordan, and they created two [33:02] entities. Okay, that's how Jordan got [33:04] created. Its original name was [33:05] Transjordan, which simply means the area [33:07] of Palestine on the other side of the [33:09] Jordan. And then they dropped the word [33:10] trans and it just became Jordan. [33:13] Okay? [33:15] Right. And Transjordan, as actually as [33:17] Scott points out, is has a biblical [33:19] heritage to it because the area during [33:21] the during biblical times, the tribes of [33:23] Reuben, Gad, and half of the tribe of [33:25] Manasseh lived on the other side of the [33:27] Jordan in an area called Ever Hayarden [33:30] in Hebrew, which literally means [33:31] Transjordan, the other side of the [33:32] Jordan. But that anyway, that's the [33:33] other side of the Jordan River. That's [33:35] Palestine. North of Palestine, you have [33:37] Lebanon. [33:39] Um North of Palestine, you have Lebanon. [33:42] And uh and uh and Syria, right? So, the [33:46] Lebanon piece What it is So, what did [33:48] the the French do? [33:50] They drew a much bigger line around [33:53] Mount Lebanon, which included also the [33:55] Beqaa Valley to the east and to the [33:57] south of it. It included the area south [33:59] of Tyre, going all the way down to where [34:01] these the border with Israel is today, [34:04] and some areas to the north where [34:05] there's other Muslim groups. And by [34:08] doing that, they and they said, "This is [34:10] the new country called called Lebanon." [34:12] But the But the Christians there were [34:14] furious. Because now they're lumped in [34:16] with all these Muslims, these Sunnis and [34:18] Shiites and Druze and others, and it's [34:21] going to dilute their Christian [34:22] identity, and they're not going to be [34:23] able to be in control of their own fate [34:25] anymore. [34:26] So, they were furious. So, what the [34:28] French did was they said, "Okay, we're [34:29] going to create a a form of government [34:31] that's going to ensure that the [34:33] Christians will always have power. And [34:35] they they created a [34:37] Here's what they created there, and this [34:38] is where it gets really nutty. So, pay [34:41] attention. All of you listening, pay [34:43] close attention to what happens here. [34:44] This is It's It's It's a little crazy. [34:47] So, they [34:49] they set up a legislature, like a [34:51] parliament, [34:53] but they [34:55] they divided the number of seats in the [34:58] parliament [35:01] exactly 50% Christian [35:04] and 50% Muslim. [35:07] Now, you might be asking yourself, what [35:08] do you mean they divided the seats in [35:09] parliament? Don't you have an election [35:10] and then you and then you can determine [35:13] how many seats we have for each party? [35:15] What does it mean they divided the seats [35:16] in parliament? By the way, Doug just [35:18] lost electricity. We know that he was on [35:21] he was on a storm watch, a tornado [35:22] watch, so he just lost power. So, now [35:24] it's just going to be me for a little [35:26] while explaining this whole background [35:28] of Lebanon. So, listen to what happened [35:30] here. [35:31] So, the French set up a legislature [35:33] where they fixed the number of seats [35:36] for Muslims and for Christians. 50% of [35:39] the seats went to Christians, [35:41] 50% of the seats went to Muslims, and [35:43] that cannot change. Meaning, if there's [35:45] another election, it doesn't matter. The [35:48] number of Christian seats and the number [35:49] of Muslim seats seats stays the same. [35:53] And they then divided up the Muslim [35:56] seats into a bunch of seats for the [35:58] Sunnis and a bunch of seats for the [36:00] Shiites and some seats for the Druze, [36:02] and they gave and within the Christian [36:04] seats, there was a number of different [36:05] Christian groups and they each got a set [36:07] number of seats in the parliament. [36:11] So, the parliament was divided into [36:13] sects [36:15] that are religious and ethnic sects, and [36:17] they each got their predetermined number [36:19] of seats in this parliament, and it is [36:22] unchanging. [36:23] So, you might ask yourself, what's the [36:25] point of an election? And that's a great [36:26] question. [36:27] When they have elections, it does not [36:29] change the composition of the parliament [36:31] at all, ever. It can't. It's enshrined [36:34] in their constitution. [36:36] Christians will always have exactly 50% [36:39] of the seats. Muslims will always have [36:41] exactly 50% of the seats. The percentage [36:43] that is Sunni will always be the same. [36:45] The percentage that is Shia will always [36:47] be the same. That's the way it goes. [36:49] The only thing you're voting for when [36:50] you vote in in Lebanon is which people [36:54] are going to represent your sect in the [36:57] predetermined number of seats that you [36:59] have in the parliament. That's it. [37:01] >> It looks like Doug might be back. [37:03] >> I am back. I have no power, but I'm on [37:06] my phone. [37:08] >> So So, Doug, I was just explaining to [37:10] our viewers while you were gone that the [37:12] the the strange legislature system in [37:15] Lebanon that the French set up a [37:16] legislature where there's a [37:17] predetermined number of seats for each [37:19] religious group. And it cannot change. [37:23] No matter what happens Elections do not [37:25] change the number of seats that each [37:27] group has. Could you imagine if you had [37:29] an election in the United States for the [37:30] Congress, but it was determined in [37:32] advance that the Republicans would have [37:34] exactly 50% of the seats, the Democrats [37:36] would have exactly 50% of the seats, and [37:38] within and then you divide it up, I [37:40] don't know, by ethnicities or religious [37:41] groups, and everyone had a predetermined [37:43] number of seats, and it could not ever [37:45] change, and all you're voting for is [37:47] who's going to sit in those seats. [37:49] That's what Lebanon is. And they did it [37:51] They divided it all up based on a [37:54] census. [37:55] The census was done in 1932. [37:59] This became the structure of the [38:02] Lebanese government from 1920, when this [38:04] was first set up, until 1943, the French [38:07] were still there, and they were still [38:09] ruling there. They still controlled [38:10] foreign policy, and they controlled [38:12] international trade, they controlled [38:14] defense. And then, during World War II, [38:16] the French left, and they gave and they [38:19] basically gave Lebanon its independence. [38:21] But, when the Lebanese became [38:22] independent, they simply continued with [38:25] this legislative format. [38:27] Problem is that the demographic started [38:29] to change. Muslims started persecuting [38:32] Christians, more Muslims were moving in, [38:34] Christians started leaving in droves. [38:36] Today, where Christians used to be half [38:38] or even more than half of Lebanon, [38:40] they're only about 30% of Lebanon, but [38:42] they still control half the seats. In [38:44] 1975, [38:46] a civil war broke out. And this was [38:48] after the PLO under Yasser Arafat had [38:51] been banished from Jordan, and they went [38:53] into Lebanon and they started destroying [38:55] South Lebanon and using it as a base of [38:57] operation to attack Israel. Other [38:59] terrorist groups came in. [39:02] And these these uh these terrorist [39:03] groups that came into Lebanon started [39:05] setting up shop. [39:06] And the and they had allies in the [39:10] legislature from their various sects. [39:12] Hezbollah joined up they they got [39:14] created in the in the late '70s, early [39:16] '80s during the war with Israel when [39:18] Israel got dragged into the Lebanese [39:19] Civil War. [39:21] And it became a war with Israel. [39:23] Basically, the Lebanese Civil War went [39:25] on from 1975 to 1989. [39:29] Until 1989, the president of Lebanon had [39:32] a lot of power, and it was given to him [39:35] because the French wanted to ensure that [39:37] Lebanon would remain a Christian [39:38] country. But as the decades went on and [39:40] it became increasingly Muslim, but the [39:42] Christian president cuz the president [39:44] always had to be Christian. That's [39:45] another thing I forgot to mention. In [39:47] this system the French set up, the [39:49] president of Lebanon is always a [39:51] Christian, a Maronite. [39:53] The prime minister of Lebanon is always [39:55] a Sunni Muslim. [39:57] And the speaker of the house is always a [39:59] Shiite Muslim. And that is fixed in [40:02] their constitution, it cannot change. [40:04] Think of how undemocratic that is. [40:06] >> and similar to Bethlehem perhaps where [40:08] they have a Christian mayor they have [40:12] certain [40:13] districts in the Palestinian Authority [40:15] that are required to have a Christian in [40:19] in leadership. [40:20] >> this is far worse than that, Doug, [40:21] because having a certain saying we need [40:23] to have a Christian mayor is one thing. [40:25] Saying that the entire legislature of [40:27] the country has a fixed number of seats [40:29] for every sect that can never change in [40:31] any election, no matter what and and [40:34] everyone in the country votes according [40:35] to their ethnic or religious sect. [40:38] You can't change, right? You're stuck in [40:41] your sect and that's who you vote for [40:42] and you can never change the composition [40:44] of the legislature. The demographics of [40:46] the country have changed tremendously in [40:47] the almost 100 years since that last [40:49] census, but it doesn't matter. A civil [40:52] war broke out and the Muslims were [40:54] basically like, we have no power because [40:55] most of the power was given to the [40:57] president, the prime minister and the [40:59] speaker had much less. So, the Maronite [41:01] Christians had an outsized amount of [41:02] power. The civil war breaks out and [41:05] Lebanon descended into chaos that it has [41:07] never emerged from because during the [41:09] course of this civil war Hezbollah got [41:11] created. They took They basically took [41:14] over Lebanon. How did they take over? [41:17] In 1989, [41:18] at the end of the Lebanese Civil War, to [41:20] end the war, there was lots of different [41:22] terrorist groups running around Lebanon [41:23] at the time. There were Palestinian [41:24] groups, there were Syrian groups and [41:26] there was, of course, Iranian-backed [41:27] groups. There was lots of different [41:29] factions there. Lebanon had descended [41:31] into chaos. Christians were fleeing in [41:33] droves, which meant that their [41:35] percentages were going even further [41:36] down, making the fact that the president [41:39] the Christian president had most of the [41:40] power even more absurd. The The country [41:43] was It was It was [41:45] and getting more and more dysfunctional. [41:47] And they they all came together and they [41:49] signed a peace deal to end the Lebanese [41:52] Civil War. This had nothing to do with [41:53] Israel. This is a peace deal among the [41:55] Lebanese factions called the Taif [41:57] Agreement, signed in 1989, brokered by [41:59] the Saudis. [42:01] And in the Taif Agreement, they agreed [42:03] that there's going to be only one [42:04] military, it's going to be the Lebanese [42:06] Army and everyone else is going to [42:08] disarm except Hezbollah. And literally, [42:11] it says this, this was part of the Taif [42:14] Agreement negotiations. It's not written [42:16] into the text that we have of the Taif [42:18] Agreement today. It was a side deal, but [42:20] it was part of this is open, you can go [42:22] to the Wikipedia page about the Taif [42:24] Agreement at the end of the Lebanese [42:25] Civil War, and you'll see it states it [42:27] clearly. There was a special exception [42:30] made for Hezbollah that they can keep [42:32] their weapons because they're doing the [42:35] sacred work of attacking the Jewish [42:37] state. And that's why they were allowed [42:39] to keep their weapons. So, when Naim [42:41] Qassem, the head of Hezbollah, says to [42:44] the media, as he does all the time, that [42:46] that we have a legitimate legal right to [42:49] our weapons and we're not going to to [42:51] lay them down, and which is what he [42:53] always says, we have a legitimate right [42:55] to our weapons, he's actually not [42:57] entirely wrong. There was a real [42:59] agreement made between all the different [43:01] factions in Lebanon in 1989 that allowed [43:04] Hezbollah to have their weapons. [43:07] >> Wow. [43:07] >> And [43:08] okay, it's insane. And And so, you have [43:10] this country which is governed by this [43:12] ridiculous system that cannot change. [43:14] It's constitutional that the Christians [43:16] have to have half the seats in the [43:18] parliament. The Christians are only 30% [43:20] of the population today, but they still [43:21] have half the seats in the parliament. [43:23] They In the Taif Agreement, they also [43:25] broke up the powers of the presidency [43:26] and they and they made it more like a [43:28] government by by consensus so that every [43:32] group now has veto power over every [43:34] major decision. So, it's always [43:36] paralysis because no one's really in [43:38] charge. This is literally how the [43:40] government is supposed to operate. It is [43:42] the most dysfunctional government in the [43:44] world. It It's I mean, it's built for [43:47] dysfunction. So, you have a situation [43:49] where again, fixed number of seats for [43:51] every religious and ethnic group. [43:54] And everyone has to have consensus in [43:57] order to make any real decision. [43:59] And in the middle of all that, they the [44:01] government actually made a decision to [44:02] allow Hezbollah to have weapons, and [44:04] Hezbollah in turn built up so much [44:07] weaponry that they took over the country [44:10] and have now brought all kinds of [44:12] destruction on Lebanon. So, here's the [44:14] problem. When the president of Lebanon, [44:17] Joseph Aoun, goes on CNN like he did the [44:19] other day and talks about Lebanese [44:21] sovereignty and we're going to make [44:22] peace with Israel and it's our country [44:24] and Hezbollah has to leave, it's all [44:26] very nice words, but he has no power to [44:28] implement any of this because Hezbollah [44:31] is a party in the government. They're [44:33] they they have they're part of Lebanon, [44:35] they're part of the Taif Agreement, [44:37] they're there, no one's about to unseat [44:39] them, the Lebanese army does not have [44:41] the ability nor does it have the will to [44:43] take away Hezbollah's weapons. [44:46] So, Israel making a peace deal with [44:48] Lebanon is just an irrelevant point. It [44:50] doesn't do anything for anybody cuz [44:52] there won't be because Israel's not at [44:54] war with Lebanon. Israel's at war with [44:56] Hezbollah, but Hezbollah, [44:59] you know, it is basically thumbing their [45:01] nose at whoever is officially the [45:02] Lebanese government and there's no way [45:04] to change the Lebanese government. You [45:06] need everyone to agree. And why would [45:09] the Shiites, Hezbollah, who are part of [45:11] the government, why would they ever [45:12] agree to such a decision? And because [45:14] the way the constitution in Lebanon is [45:16] written, you have to have consensus [45:19] to, you know, to change anything. [45:21] It it it's stuck. [45:23] And I think one of the big mistakes that [45:25] Israel's making and with this all end [45:27] this this rant, but I think one of the [45:29] big mistakes Israel's making is that [45:31] Israel keeps saying what I just said. [45:33] We're not at war with Lebanon, we have [45:34] no problem with Lebanon, our problem's [45:36] only with Hezbollah. I think what the [45:38] Israelis should be saying is, "Look, [45:44] we want to get rid of Hezbollah. You, [45:46] Lebanon government, you gave Hezbollah [45:49] permission to have those weapons to [45:50] attack us. [45:52] And therefore, unless you get rid of [45:54] those weapons, you're responsible for [45:56] those attacks and we're going to treat [45:58] it as though Lebanon attacked us [46:01] until you officially announce that you [46:03] have repealed that agreement of the that [46:06] part of the Taif Agreement. If you make [46:08] an announcement [46:10] that it is null and void. [46:13] Call them out on it. I think Israel [46:15] should do that. [46:16] Because it's all a big game now. There's [46:18] this plausible deniability. Lebanese [46:20] government can say, "We're not attacking [46:21] you." [46:22] And Hezbollah is a separate non-state [46:24] actor. But then when Israel attacks [46:26] Hezbollah, everyone's like, "Oh, don't [46:27] attack Lebanon." [46:29] What are we supposed to do? Just [46:30] imagine, here's the analogy, Doug. [46:32] Imagine that the cartels in Mexico [46:35] started attacking towns in Texas [46:38] militarily. [46:39] >> Yeah. [46:40] >> And the Americans started retaliating [46:41] against the cartels. [46:43] And then we found out that there was [46:45] actually a government decision made by [46:48] the Mexican government [46:51] to approve of the cartels having their [46:53] weapons because we hate America so much [46:57] that we applaud the cartels for [46:59] attacking America. [47:01] >> Yeah, that's insane. [47:02] >> Wouldn't Wouldn't Wouldn't America [47:04] obviously hold the Mexican government [47:06] responsible for those attacks under [47:08] those circumstances? That's where we are [47:10] right now. So, the Lebanon situation is [47:13] is it's it's ridiculous. But the [47:16] And it's also why Iran has so much power [47:18] because Iran basically controls one of [47:21] the factions in the Lebanese government. [47:24] And that faction is the Shiite faction. [47:27] So, they call the shots. [47:29] And that's where we are today. [47:31] >> Wow. [47:32] That And that's a tough spot for Israel. [47:34] It's a tough spot for the world to be [47:36] in. I just think that [47:38] What are you What are you going to do? [47:39] At some point, is there going to be a [47:41] split in Lebanon? At some point, are [47:43] they going to have to reform from the [47:44] inside? There has to be something cuz [47:47] it's not tenable moving forward. How do [47:49] you How do you deal with that? [47:51] >> Well, this leads to This leads into a [47:53] bigger question, which is [47:56] what stable governments are there in the [47:57] Middle East? There are stable [47:58] governments, but the stable governments [48:00] in the Middle East are not democracies. [48:03] The stable governments in the Middle [48:04] East are families, [48:05] like the Saudis, the Qataris, the [48:07] Emiratis. [48:09] Even Jordan is somewhat stable. You have [48:11] a king, you have a royal family that [48:13] kind of controls things. [48:15] The and the countries in in the Middle [48:17] East that are not governed by a royal [48:19] family are generally chaotic messes. [48:23] Like Egypt, like Syria, like Iraq. [48:27] Lebanon is its own unique type of mess [48:30] because of everything I just laid out to [48:31] you. It has its own unique aspects of [48:33] the mess that it is. [48:36] And that's why it's never had a [48:37] dictator. Like you see that Syria, [48:39] Egypt, like these other countries, [48:40] almost every country in the Middle East [48:41] has a dictator. How come How come [48:44] Lebanon never would became a [48:45] dictatorship? Well, because it's really [48:47] just been a chaotic civil war with all [48:49] these different groups. Like Jordan is [48:52] like 95% Sunni Muslim. It's literally [48:55] that high. It's a It's a pretty [48:58] um [48:59] you know, the population is all pretty [49:01] much the same. [49:02] Lebanon is really different parts of the [49:05] country, different towns. [49:07] If you tell someone what town you're [49:08] from in Lebanon, they know every they [49:09] know what family you're from, they know [49:10] what religion you have. [49:12] Different parts of the country are [49:14] populated by different ethnic and [49:15] religious groups. [49:17] And they and you have this power-sharing [49:19] agreement that the government is based [49:21] on, this consensus power-sharing, which [49:25] it sounds nice, it sounds like [49:26] cooperation, but it's enshrined in the [49:29] constitution and it's unchangeable, and [49:31] it basically leads to paralysis. [49:34] So, I think the big problem one of the [49:36] big problems that we have in the Middle [49:38] East [49:39] is the whole Sykes-Picot agreement that [49:42] I started this whole explanation with, [49:44] with the French and the British carving [49:45] up the Ottoman Empire, [49:47] created a lot of problems that were that [49:49] we are dealing with and will continue to [49:51] deal with until someone wakes up and [49:52] says maybe we need to disband [49:54] Sykes-Picot, which I don't think is ever [49:56] going to happen, but you could actually [49:57] solve problems. Let me explain what I [49:59] mean. [50:00] You have the Druze in in southern Syria [50:03] who are all and also somewhat in [50:05] southern Lebanon. [50:06] >> And the north of Israel. [50:08] >> And and then you have the Alawites [50:10] up north in northern northwestern Syria [50:13] and northern Lebanon. And then you have [50:15] the Maronite Christians who have their [50:16] regions. And then you have Sunnis and [50:18] you have Shiites and they live in their [50:19] each separate areas, which is a good [50:21] thing. The good news is they live in [50:23] their separate areas. And then you have [50:24] the Kurds in north in northeastern Syria [50:26] and in parts of Turkey and Iraq. [50:30] If each of these ethnic groups could [50:31] govern their own affairs civilly and [50:34] have their own law enforcement and their [50:36] own security set up internally, but have [50:40] some sort of federation system where [50:42] they're sharing in terms of currency and [50:44] foreign trade and foreign affairs, [50:47] if we get creative that way, you could [50:49] actually create a peaceful situation [50:51] where they're not trying to kill each [50:52] other and oppress each other. [50:54] But when you draw artificial lines [50:56] paying no paying no mind paying no [50:59] attention to who the different groups [51:01] are and where those lines are going and [51:03] how they're cutting up populations, you [51:05] create problems and we're dealing with [51:07] these problems. All the problems in [51:08] Syria, they all stem from this. The [51:11] problems in Lebanon stem from this. It's [51:13] a big mess. [51:16] >> Yes, and it it's a huge mess and that's [51:18] why Shoulder to Shoulder family, we need [51:20] you to pray. We asked you to pray at the [51:21] beginning when October 7th broke out. So [51:24] important for you to read the Psalms and [51:26] to prepare your heart and pray [51:28] cuz at some level man can do a lot of [51:30] things, but it's ultimately going to be [51:33] the kingdom of God on the earth that's [51:35] going to it's going to fulfill this and [51:37] going to bring peace to the Middle East. [51:39] Ultimately, that's what we're all [51:41] longing for. [51:42] >> And we can also pray for for the Reed [51:44] family to get electricity back out there [51:47] in uh [51:47] >> And is the commitment of shoulder to [51:49] shoulder. I just for those of you who [51:51] are just listening, I'm standing holding [51:54] my phone and my microphone right now at [51:56] a window so you can see a little bit of [51:58] my face that keeps lighting up with the [52:00] lightning because we're under a tornado [52:03] watch right now. I have no power and I [52:05] don't know how I'm going to shower and [52:06] get ready for for my day. Pay attention [52:09] to bomb shelter. He built a studio in a [52:11] bomb shelter cuz no tornado, no missile [52:13] will stop shoulder to shoulder from [52:15] coming to you each and every week. [52:19] >> Amen. Amen, Doug. [52:21] >> Well, thank you all for listening. Like, [52:23] rate, share, subscribe, all those [52:25] things. Come on over to YouTube, [52:27] Facebook, everywhere else. We love you [52:29] shoulder to shoulder family and next [52:30] episode, God willing, I'll have power [52:33] and we'll be rocking and rolling full [52:34] steam. [52:36] >> Amen.
