Transcript [00:00] Hey everyone. So I want to talk about [00:02] regime change and the possibility for [00:04] regime change and where we are right now [00:06] because we we we we can get lulled into [00:10] this sense that things are kind of like [00:12] static and because we're just looking at [00:14] what is done at the diplomatic level, [00:16] you know, or or at the military level, [00:18] you know, is are there attacks going on? [00:20] And in between when there's [00:21] negotiations, we sort of feel like [00:23] things are are in this holding pattern [00:25] and maybe even Iran's getting stronger. [00:26] Oh my gosh, they're selling oil. But I [00:29] really believe based on a number of [00:31] different signals and I'm going to share [00:33] with you a number of clips in this video [00:35] that the Iranian regime might be closer [00:38] to falling than we even realize. Okay, [00:41] so let's take a look and and we'll make [00:43] an assessment. Maybe you'll disagree [00:45] with me and you'll let me know in the [00:46] comments, but uh this is what I want to [00:48] talk about now. Like what are the [00:49] prospects for regime change? What might [00:51] it look like? So, let's uh start off [00:54] with uh with just a a clip which might [00:59] have flown under the radar. [01:01] Uh it was just it was a very interesting [01:04] little comment that Trump made that [01:05] really indicated some serious escalation [01:08] coming. Now, we know there's escalation. [01:10] This one isn't really about regime [01:11] change, but uh it speaks to the [01:13] direction that Trump is headed right [01:15] now. Let's take a look. Very, very short [01:16] clip here. But uh when we did this, we [01:20] thought oil would go much higher and it [01:22] didn't go very high. Now it's coming way [01:24] down and you're going to see oil drop [01:26] very low. Now maybe we'll do some other [01:29] things that could lift it a little bit, [01:31] but I don't think it's going to lift it [01:32] a lot at all. I think [01:34] >> now look at that. Trump just said after [01:37] talking about how oil had gone up and [01:40] then it came down, he said, "Now we're [01:41] going to do some things that are going [01:42] to make it go a little higher." Now, I [01:44] think that there's an very interesting [01:46] dynamic with the price of oil, uh, that [01:49] it's not just about the fact that, oh, [01:51] when oil is high, it's bad for Trump and [01:54] when oil goes down, everything's fine [01:55] and if it goes up again, it's going to [01:57] be bad. Not necessarily. You see, when [02:00] the oil started rising and Americans got [02:02] all skittish and Americans got all [02:04] worried and, you know, which, you know, [02:07] because of the of the rising price of [02:09] gas and Trump said, "Don't worry, you'll [02:11] see it's going to come down. enter in [02:13] theouou straits of Hormuz somewhat open [02:16] the the price of oil starts going way [02:18] down gets all the way down to lower than [02:20] it was even before the conflict because [02:22] that happens so quickly. I believe that [02:26] Trump understands that even if he goes [02:30] back to kinetic action and the prices [02:32] and the prices of oil do go up again, [02:35] the consumer confidence that it's [02:38] temporary and that it's going to come [02:39] down quickly is so much higher. You see, [02:42] the first time it spiked when he when [02:45] Trump was saying, "Don't worry, don't [02:46] worry, don't worry. It's going to come [02:47] down quickly." Okay, you could trust him [02:49] or not trust him. But now when he says [02:52] that, people just saw that that exact [02:54] same thing happened. It gives Trump more [02:56] leeway for kinetic action. So that's I [02:59] just wanted to add that to set the stage [03:02] for the next clips that we're going to [03:04] look at here. [03:05] Um, but now I want to play you a couple [03:07] of clips that uh of Trump speaking that [03:11] really give us an indication that he may [03:14] be entertaining the possibility of [03:17] regime change more than he has. I now [03:20] just let me back up. I pointed out in a [03:22] video that I made yesterday that in [03:24] Trump's comments at NATO and he spoke [03:26] about Iran a number of different times [03:28] at NATO and he said different things [03:30] each time. They weren't contradictory. [03:32] He just added to what he was saying. One [03:33] of the things that he he started talking [03:35] about more at NATO that we hadn't heard [03:38] from him in a couple of months was he [03:40] was talking more about the Iranian [03:41] people and about how many of them were [03:44] killed by the regime and going back to [03:47] talking about the old crimes of the [03:49] regime against America. We hadn't heard [03:51] a lot about that in the last month and a [03:53] half, two months during the [03:54] negotiations. In fact, he was even going [03:56] a little soft, saying there's really [03:57] been a regime change already. These are [03:59] more reasonable people. and he's [04:01] reverted back to a rhetoric where he [04:04] does not see these new people as a new [04:05] regime and he's reminding everyone about [04:07] all the people that they've killed. In [04:09] fact, I [clears throat] made a video a [04:11] couple weeks ago where he was asked [04:12] about the about the killing of Iranians [04:17] and he brushed it off kind of and said, [04:19] "Oh, that was done kind of under the [04:21] previous people," indicating uh implying [04:24] that the newer people aren't of the same [04:26] ilk, but now he's emphasizing all the [04:28] stuff they're doing to the Iranian [04:30] people. But I want to share with you two [04:31] clips that to me are also pointing in [04:35] the direction of Trump thinking along [04:36] the lines of regime change. Let me also [04:38] just add one more caveat. When we're [04:40] analyzing stuff that Trump says, we know [04:43] that he's off the cuff, that he's not [04:45] working from a script. We went from Joe [04:47] Biden, the most scripted president ever. [04:49] He didn't say a word, that he wasn't [04:51] approved, to President Trump who's very [04:53] unscripted. But unscripted does not mean [04:57] that he's erratic in his [04:58] decision-making. I believe he's very [04:59] deliberate in his decision-making. He he [05:01] deliberately also is unpredictable. [05:03] That's a that's part of his strategy. He [05:05] doesn't want to show his cards, but [05:08] because he's so unscripted in what he [05:10] says, I believe that there's an [05:12] authenticity there that you really can [05:13] get a sense of the trajectory. You can [05:15] get a sense of the direction he's [05:17] headed. That's what I'm saying in this [05:18] video. Let's take a look at these two [05:20] clips of President Trump and do a little [05:23] reading between the lines. [05:28] Oh, wrong one. Here we go. [05:31] >> Uh, [05:33] I don't like them at all. And, uh, [05:37] frankly, I think we waste a lot of time [05:38] with them. I think we should I think we [05:41] should just do our business. Can you [05:43] imagine they start shooting bombs [05:46] actually missiles at ships yesterday? [05:49] Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, couple of others. [05:52] Um, [05:54] and they don't I don't think they I [05:57] don't think they know what the hell [05:58] they're doing, but they're bad people. [05:59] Very bad people. I think they're [06:01] incompetent, [06:02] by the way, because if they were [06:04] competent, they would have made a deal a [06:06] long time ago. Like, how about 47 years [06:08] ago? So, they've been troubled for 47 [06:10] years. And they're um [clears throat] we [06:14] took out their first set of leaders. We [06:15] took out their second set of leaders. [06:17] They want to take out the US leader. Me. [06:21] I'm on every list. I saw things this [06:23] morning. I'm on every single one of [06:25] their lists. And so far, I guess I've [06:28] been a little bit lucky. But that maybe [06:30] doesn't last very long because uh that's [06:33] the way it goes. But we have great [06:35] people, but these are evil, sick people. [06:37] And we have to rid their cancer. They're [06:40] cancer. And you know what you do? You [06:41] got to cut out cancer early. [06:44] And that's the way I feel. [06:47] I mean, that to me sounds like regime [06:49] change talk. Talking, reminding himself [06:53] and everyone that they want to kill him, [06:55] saying that he saw lists this morning or [06:57] that morning that he was on, but also [07:00] talking about them as a cancer and what [07:01] do you do with cancer? You got to get [07:02] rid of them. That's how I feel. And now [07:04] take a look at this one. Similar to the [07:07] previous uh one, but he says something [07:09] else. [07:10] >> Their leaders are gone. They had [07:12] leaders. They're gone. Then they had [07:14] another set of leaders. They're gone. [07:15] Now they have another set of leaders. [07:16] They may be gone. Who knows? [07:21] >> That is the first time I have heard [07:23] President Trump indicate any possibility [07:26] of taking out the next set of leaders, [07:28] the ones who are currently in charge. [07:31] Again, I'm not saying that he's [07:33] announcing regime change, but it sounds [07:35] like he's a whole lot more open to it [07:37] than he was just a short time ago. Now, [07:39] as part of this discussion, what I want [07:40] to now share with you is an incredible [07:42] clip. This is about a week old from [07:46] Brigadier General Amir Avivi. Now, [07:48] Brigadier General Avivi, I've talked [07:50] about him before, a national figure in [07:52] Israel, a very important person. Uh he [07:54] founded, he's a retired Brigadier [07:56] General who founded the Israel Defense [07:59] and Security Forum, which is a think [08:02] tank made up mostly of former uh of [08:07] retired senior military personnel in [08:09] Israel. and they have had a tremendous [08:12] effect on Israeli policy. They're very [08:14] well-connected people obviously and they [08:17] do tremendous work. Uh a big part of [08:19] their of the role they've played is [08:21] really pushing back on the left-wing [08:23] slant that a lot of the official [08:25] military establishment has and they've [08:26] been an important counterbalance. [08:28] General Avivi also recently announced [08:30] that he's going to be running in the [08:31] next Knesset elections. We don't know [08:33] what party he's going to be part of. I'm [08:34] a huge fan. But he's ex I say all this [08:37] introduction as a way of of laying the [08:40] groundwork here. He is one of the best [08:43] informed people in Israel on defense and [08:45] security issues. And it's not just that [08:47] he runs this think tank. He is plugged [08:50] in. He talks to people in the prime [08:52] minister's office. He talks to people in [08:53] the military brass on a regular basis. [08:56] He serves as an adviser to them. He [08:59] knows what's going on. And look at what [09:01] he says in this briefing. Okay, this is [09:04] going to be a few minutes long. It is [09:06] well worth it. Check this out. [09:08] >> I believe that once [09:12] all these tankers will get out of the [09:14] straight of Mos, it will be much much [09:17] easier [09:18] to to go back and deal [09:21] um with the different issues we need to [09:24] deal with. Now from an Israeli point of [09:27] view, [09:29] I can say this. Israel is not going to [09:32] give up the goal of bringing down this [09:36] regime. [09:38] This goal is taken very very seriously [09:41] and we are really mobilizing the whole [09:45] Israeli defense establishment. many many [09:47] capabilities, many preparations, many [09:50] things that are going on behind the [09:51] scenes [09:53] to push a reality where this the terms [09:57] for bringing down the regime will be [09:59] created. We have done a lot through this [10:02] kinetic attacks 40 days through um the [10:06] blockade that the US did uh you see the [10:09] impact by the way in Lebanon. Hisbala is [10:12] in a really bad shape. They're not [10:13] getting almost any help. Iran is not [10:16] able to support them and we see how [10:20] difficult it is for them. Um but there [10:24] are many plans behind the scenes in the [10:26] IDF, in the air force, intelligence, [10:30] other intelligence communities, [10:33] all working around the clock to deal [10:37] with Iran in a way that will really [10:39] bring a collapse [10:41] uh to their capabilities and create the [10:43] terms for a change of regime. [10:46] And when we'll do it, it won't take a a [10:48] lot of time. We can do it uh very fast. [10:51] And the question is when when and what [10:54] kind of coordination we'll have uh with [10:57] the US and I'm hoping that we're still [10:59] aligned and uh things will be done [11:01] together. But if Israel needs to deal [11:03] with this alone, we're perfectly capable [11:06] to do so. [11:07] >> General, what you're saying is very [11:09] intriguing. You're giving us just enough [11:12] information to give optimism, but not [11:14] enough information to give clarity on [11:17] what is next to come. I mean, I'm [11:19] curious. [11:20] It's Israel has not yet been successful [11:23] nor has the US in in taking down the [11:25] regime in Iran. What other mechanisms [11:29] are there that can be successful if if [11:32] it has not yet been achieved? So [11:35] there is a whole bank of targets [11:38] that Israel is building [11:41] that can be attacked very very fast and [11:43] very decisively [11:47] and really impact you know Iran further [11:50] more. We saw you know examples like the [11:52] la the last attack the IDF did after [11:55] Iran shot ballistic missiles was was [11:57] once again against the prochemical [12:01] industries of Iran. So, you know, you [12:04] can attack places that will bring [12:08] even further more a serious collapse of [12:11] this regime's economy [12:13] in a way that they're not sustainable. [12:15] Not sustainable and it's a matter of [12:19] decision. I mean, we're perfectly able [12:20] to [12:22] to do so. we are perfectly able to [12:25] continue degrading their what remains of [12:28] their leadership and of course military [12:31] capabilities which have been degraded [12:33] dramatically anyway. Uh Iran is in a [12:37] very very very bad shape. Very bad [12:40] shape. So and I mean you see the [12:43] rhetorics you know uh might sound like [12:46] you know even people say ah they're [12:48] winning. No they're not. They're in a [12:50] terrible shape. [12:52] Um the one thing that they're still able [12:55] to do is project some power on the [12:59] straight and and [13:01] and I think that um there's one thing I [13:04] would expect the US to do is to take [13:08] over militarily the strait in a way that [13:09] they completely control it which is not [13:11] happening now. It's partially happening. [13:14] Um and I think uh much more could have [13:17] been done and should be done. I don't [13:19] think Iran in the future should have any [13:22] power projection over the threat of form [13:25] and certainly not demand tolls or you [13:29] know impact the freedom of shipment in [13:33] the in the straight in international [13:35] waters [13:37] and this is something the US should [13:38] insist on and [13:43] as I said from an Israeli point of view [13:45] we're not going to miss this historical [13:47] opportunity [13:48] And [13:50] I think Iran knows that. And this is [13:53] why, you know, they said if you stay in [13:55] Lebanon, if you continue attacking, if [13:58] you don't withdraw, we'll shoot at you. [14:01] Are they shooting? No. The best thing [14:05] that can happen to Israel is that Iran [14:06] will shoot us. [14:08] We're just waiting for this. [14:12] Um, give us the excuse to finish the [14:14] job. [14:17] Wow. Is that wow? [14:20] So that's General Amir Vivi. I mean [14:23] laying it out there. Regime change is [14:26] certainly possible. Certainly capable of [14:28] it. And I know that everyone says, [14:30] "Well, how can you do it without putting [14:31] boots on the ground? What is regime [14:33] change? It's messy. You break it. You [14:34] bought it. Look at Iraq." No, no, no, [14:36] no, no, no, no, no. There are all kinds [14:38] of options for regime change. And regime [14:40] change can happen [14:42] as a result of other things that are [14:44] going on. remember the economic uh [14:46] conditions that led to the riots to the [14:51] mass demonstrations in Iran in December [14:53] and January [14:54] which were the precursor to this whole [14:56] war. [14:58] Those economic conditions have only [14:59] gotten worse. And we have to kind of [15:04] understand that regime change is not [15:06] necessarily about taking kinetic action [15:07] at this or that point. And as he said [15:10] there, there's the Israelis have a lot [15:12] of tools at their disposal and are ready [15:15] to roll when the time is right. But I [15:17] want to play you one more clip and this [15:18] is a clip of Victoria Coats. Victoria [15:20] Coats used to be uh I think deputy [15:23] national security adviser and she is VP [15:26] at the Heritage Foundation for National [15:27] Security. And she was on Fox Business [15:30] the other day. I think it's Fox [15:31] Business. Where's this clip? She was on [15:33] Fox Business the other day talking about [15:35] regime change, talking about the state [15:37] of of of Iran right now, uh, of Iran's [15:42] economy and and where they are. And, uh, [15:45] this is this is a good, uh, way to end [15:48] this conversation about regime change. [15:50] Let's take a look at this clip. [15:53] Well, Dean, Brian, great to be with you [15:55] and I hope everybody had a wonderful [15:57] fourth when we had that huge celebration [15:59] and the folks in Iran had the big [16:01] funeral and I think that contrast was [16:03] very telling and you know Dean I [16:06] strongly agree I don't want them to sell [16:07] a single barrel and I am fine with [16:10] reimposing the blockade but the fact of [16:12] the matter is that $6 billion$4 billion [16:15] 10 billion that's not going to save them [16:18] at this point. The projections right now [16:20] is that that economy is going to shrink [16:22] six% this year. That is shrinking, not [16:25] just small growth. They're actually [16:27] going to contract by six percent. You [16:29] can't go on that way. And so by revoking [16:32] that that waiver for oil sales, not that [16:35] they were selling that much anyway [16:36] because they're not a very good uh a [16:38] very good seller, uh that people don't [16:40] really want to put their trust in them. [16:42] That's just not going to save them. So [16:44] we can in many ways just sit back and [16:46] watch this slow motion train wreck that [16:48] Secretary Bessant has put in action. [16:50] >> So does that mean that the American [16:53] people should expect this kind of [16:56] pattern of I I think you've used the [16:58] term others have mowing the lawn to go [17:00] on for a long time. If Iran hits ships [17:04] we hit them then we step back see what [17:07] happens. But there is no kind of [17:09] decisive finish the job move. Victoria, [17:12] is that what is that what people should [17:14] expect? [17:16] >> I don't think this is necessarily going [17:18] to go on for a long time, Brian, just [17:20] because what Iran is going through is is [17:22] so dire. And the sites that the [17:25] president directed us to hit tonight, [17:27] these are going to be electricity [17:29] generating plants. Next come the [17:31] bridges, other critical infrastructure. [17:33] They just can't go on like this. And it [17:36] was interesting. I'm just back from [17:37] Iceland of all places. I visited the [17:39] place where President Reagan met with [17:42] Chairman Gorbachev of the Soviet Union [17:44] in 1986 almost 40 years ago and that set [17:48] in motion a two three-year process that [17:50] brought down the Berlin wall. So I [17:53] wouldn't see this as a long-term thing [17:55] but it might be a little bit of a [17:56] process like that where they are sewing [17:59] into themselves right now the seeds of [18:01] their own demise. [18:03] >> What? [18:07] >> There you go. [18:08] You see, this is what she just said, [18:11] that last thing she said, comparing it [18:13] to the Soviet Union is so critically [18:15] important. See, we think when we talk [18:18] about the need to get rid of the Iranian [18:19] regime and what the Americans and the [18:20] Israelis have been doing, and we think [18:23] of it as like we need to go in there and [18:25] install a new regime and bring it down, [18:27] but it doesn't work that way. And it [18:29] doesn't even mean that in the kinetic [18:31] conflict itself, the regime is somehow [18:33] taken out like Venezuela style. You go [18:35] in there and you remove them. [18:38] It could happen in other ways. Think [18:39] about regimes that have fallen that [18:41] we've seen. We saw the Syrian regime [18:42] fall. We saw those of us who remember [18:44] the Soviet Union falling. Even the [18:46] Soviet Union, remember when it when it [18:48] fell. It was kind of it's always [18:49] shocking at the last moment because in [18:50] the days and weeks leading up to it, [18:52] it's not like there's an announcement, [18:53] oh, the regime is about to fall. It just [18:54] kind of all the forces converge and then [18:56] boom, it it just kind of collapses. But [18:59] it can also take time to play out. and [19:02] she's pointing out the economic [19:04] contraction of the Iranian of the [19:06] Iranian economy, the contraction of the [19:09] economy after what happened last year. [19:11] It was already in collapse mode and it's [19:12] getting even worse and the people are [19:14] are not going to get any less restless. [19:16] And if America and Israel just continue [19:18] to degrade them militarily and degrade [19:20] their leadership and then and then she [19:22] indicated that they're going to start [19:23] hitting civilian infrastructure. Oh my [19:25] gosh, that was a bombshell. I don't know [19:27] where she got that from, but she's as [19:29] well informed as anyone. [19:31] And uh and we know that uh as as General [19:35] Avivi pointed out when Israel was hit [19:37] last time by the Iranians that one it [19:41] was like that one day where they fired [19:42] missiles at Israel a couple weeks back. [19:45] Israel hit prochemical infrastructure [19:46] and they've been silent on Israel ever [19:48] since. One of the most interesting [19:49] developments in the last couple days is [19:51] that with America bombarding the [19:53] Iranians and and Trump declaring the [19:55] ceasefire over the Iranians have been [19:58] attacking Bahrain and Kuwait. They [20:00] haven't been attacking Israel. They [20:02] haven't been attacking Saudi Arabia. [20:03] They haven't been attacking the Emirates [20:05] for all kinds of reasons. I think I was [20:06] thinking of making a video just about [20:08] that about what they're not doing. But [20:10] notice that they're not attacking [20:11] Israel. Why not? Why is not attacking [20:15] Israel over this? Because they're not. [20:18] Why not? You know why? Because they're [20:20] weaker than ever. They know that if they [20:22] attack Israel, Israel will will do what [20:24] General Aviv was talking about. They [20:26] know that Israel has the capability to [20:27] do so much damage. [20:30] So, put all of this together, everything [20:32] that I've just said, President Trump is [20:34] looking more amendable to a to regime [20:36] change. General Avivi tells us that [20:38] don't think for a moment that Israel [20:40] can't do this. Israel has all the [20:41] capabilities to do this and is working [20:42] on this round the clock. And then you [20:45] have what Victoria Coat said, hey, look, [20:47] yes, they sold a few billion dollars. [20:49] That's not going to change the [20:50] atrophying and collapse of the Iranian [20:53] economy that leads to the real [20:54] destabilization that ultimately lead [20:56] leads to the collapse of the regime. How [20:58] long can it go on for? So, we shouldn't [21:01] lose heart as you know with all the ups [21:03] and downs, the two steps forward, the [21:04] one step back, sometimes two steps back, [21:06] and we get all panicky about, oh no, you [21:08] know, Trump is turning on us or or this [21:10] is going sideways, the regime is going [21:12] to survive. And I've been I've been [21:13] guilty of that, too, certainly. But [21:16] let's keep a level head. Let's keep a [21:18] level head. this regime is is very weak [21:20] and getting weaker by the day. Um, and [21:23] we could see the regime change sooner [21:25] rather than later. All right, thanks for [21:27] watching. Keep watching. Keep sharing, [21:29] liking, subscribing. Make sure you're [21:31] subscribed to the channel and and please [21:33] tell other people about what we're doing [21:34] here. I think it's uh uh I think it's [21:37] valuable. That's why I do it. And I [21:39] appreciate all your comments. I read as [21:41] many of them as I can. Keep them coming. [21:43] And uh thank you. God bless.
