Transcript [00:00] A few days ago an Israeli news channel [00:02] did an interview with Hanan Gefen. It [00:05] was on channel 14 cable news in Israel. [00:07] And Hanan Gefen is a retired major [00:09] general and former commander of unit [00:12] 8200. [00:13] That's Israel's most elite signals [00:16] intelligence unit, the equivalent of the [00:17] NSA. [00:19] Okay, and he was the commander of that [00:21] unit. So, he's not a politician. He's [00:23] one of the sharpest strategic minds in [00:26] the Israeli defense establishment. [00:28] And they were talking about the Iran [00:31] uh [00:32] you know, the deal between the US and [00:33] Iran. We don't know much about it, but [00:35] one of the things we do know about it is [00:37] that it's an agreement to, you know, [00:39] that there's some sort of initial stage [00:40] like opening the Strait of Hormuz and [00:42] ceasefire and whatever it is and some [00:43] kind of relief to the Iranians. [00:46] And that the issue of how the uranium [00:49] the enriched uranium is going to be [00:50] dealt with and the nuclear issue is [00:52] going to be negotiated over some period [00:54] of time, 60 days or so. [00:56] So, they were talking about this. [01:00] And here's what he said. [01:03] So, I'm not going to play it for you. It [01:04] was in Hebrew. [01:05] Uh and [01:07] and uh [01:08] I'm not going to play that. And it was [01:11] also a long conversation. [01:13] I'm going to tell you what he said. [01:16] He said, "Don't panic. [01:18] This agreement is going to collapse well [01:20] before the 60-day negotiating window is [01:22] up. Why? [01:24] Because it's a framework agreement in [01:27] the most general sense possible. It [01:29] barely touches the real problems. It [01:30] leaves everything, the hard stuff, uh [01:33] the stuff that actually matters, right? [01:35] Like [01:36] the uranium enrichment uh the enriched [01:38] uranium, what to do about it, the [01:39] nuclear stuff. You meaning the main [01:41] issues. [01:42] It leaves them for later stages that [01:44] will never come." [01:46] And then he said something that stopped [01:47] me cold. This is why I decided to make a [01:49] video about it. [01:52] So, I'm translating here from Hebrew. He [01:54] said he called this memorandum of [01:56] understanding a Whitkoff document [02:00] written on chicken feathers. [02:02] A Whitkoff document written on chicken [02:05] feathers. [02:06] Now, [02:08] he wasn't just being colorful with a [02:09] strange phrase which, you know, I guess [02:12] is more of an expression in Hebrew. He [02:14] was identifying a pattern. He was [02:16] actually like a guy like this with his [02:18] level of experience and expertise and [02:20] intelligence [02:22] the kind of work that he is probably at [02:25] the at the top of his profession at is [02:27] pattern recognition. [02:29] Okay? He was identifying a pattern. [02:33] And it's a pattern that as soon as he [02:35] said it it resonated with me because it [02:37] tracks with everything I've been saying [02:39] since the beginning of the Trump [02:40] administration's entire Middle East [02:42] diplomacy. [02:43] First in Gaza and now in Iran. Let me [02:46] explain what the pattern is. [02:49] So, Geffen wasn't just dropping a line [02:50] calling it a Whitkoff document. [02:53] He actually in the interview he then [02:55] explains what he meant by a Whitkoff [02:57] document. [02:59] He said, "Look at what happened with [03:00] Gaza. Steve Whitkoff puts together a [03:02] framework agreement, the most general [03:05] vague document possible. Everyone gets [03:08] in the room, everyone agrees on the [03:09] framework, there's a ceremony, there are [03:12] handshakes, and the moment you try to [03:14] implement the actual hard part, [03:16] the part that makes or breaks whether [03:18] any of this works in the real world, it [03:20] falls apart because the hard part wasn't [03:23] in the agreement. It was always deferred [03:25] to some later stage. There's going to be [03:26] multiple stages to this and we're going [03:28] to get to the later stages. [03:31] And that's where all the [03:33] meaningful things are. That's where all [03:35] the the actual substance that you that [03:37] you want to be implementing, the change [03:39] you want to make. [03:40] It's all left for later stages. [03:43] So, so so Ephraim Geffen said that [03:46] that's exactly what's happening here [03:47] with Iran. They signed a framework, [03:49] everyone celebrating, but the moment the [03:50] negotiators sit down to discuss the [03:52] actual nuclear a issue in the uranium [03:56] and all the all these all the real [03:57] issues, who inspects, what they inspect, [04:01] what do we do with the stuff? Do we have [04:03] all of it? How do we verify it? Right? [04:05] When Iran says no, that's when the whole [04:07] thing will fall apart because that [04:09] question was never answered. It was it [04:10] was left deliberately vague. [04:13] So Geffen's conclusion was that this [04:15] agreement won't survive 60 days. Not [04:17] because the Iranians are going to blow [04:19] it up dramatically, but because the [04:20] vagueness, the very vagueness that made [04:23] it that makes it possible to sign an [04:25] agreement like this, [04:27] is the same vagueness that's going to [04:28] make it impossible to implement it. [04:32] A document written on chicken feathers [04:34] cuz that's the model. That's the Witcoff [04:36] model. [04:37] Take the most contentious issue and say [04:39] that that will be worked out in a later [04:40] stage and let's agree to a framework. [04:41] Everything Let's Let's build a framework [04:43] around all the things we can agree with [04:45] we can agree on, but the main issue [04:46] isn't really being dealt with. [04:49] So I've been I've been talking about [04:51] this in relation to Gaza since the [04:52] beginning, since the Trump 20-point plan [04:54] was announced. I want to take you back [04:56] because the receipts are all there. When [04:58] When the Trump 20-point Gaza plan was [05:00] announced, I went through it line by [05:02] line. [05:03] I don't know if you saw that. I I've I [05:06] have discussed it on this channel back [05:08] in January, February, in the early [05:09] months. Um and on the Israel 365 News [05:12] Channel, uh I've I've discussed this at [05:15] length if you've been following my work [05:16] for you know, for the last year or so. [05:19] But I went through it line by line. And [05:21] it's actually an impressive document in [05:22] a lot of ways. It has a logic to it. It [05:25] talks about demilitarization. It talks [05:26] about new governance structures. It [05:28] talks about economic development. And it [05:30] has phases, phase one, phase two, the [05:32] board of peace, Jared Kushner's baby, [05:35] right? Overseeing the whole [05:36] transformation. [05:38] And then Jared Kushner, you might [05:39] remember this back months ago, Jared [05:41] Kushner went to Davos, to the World [05:43] Economic Forum, and he gave a [05:44] presentation, a PowerPoint presentation [05:46] about the future of Gaza. [05:48] And I want you to understand what he was [05:50] describing. He was describing Gaza as [05:52] this high-tech resort community on the [05:55] Mediterranean with beautiful buildings [05:57] and economic opportunities. [05:59] Like a Singapore of the Middle East with [06:01] beachfront development and investment [06:03] from Gulf states and jobs and hope and a [06:05] future. [06:08] Right? That's what he was describing. [06:11] And it was a very nice PowerPoint [06:12] presentation. [06:14] There was just one problem. [06:16] One small detail that Jared seems to [06:18] have forgotten to put on his slides. [06:21] Hamas is still there, still armed, and [06:24] still in control. [06:26] So, how did we get there? How come? Why [06:27] are they still there? Why can't we get [06:29] past that? That's supposed to happen, [06:30] right? That's supposed to happen right [06:32] at the beginning as a precondition to [06:33] everything that follows. Here's the [06:35] thing. [06:37] If you go back to the actual 20-point [06:39] plan, point 13 says, and I'm reading [06:41] directly, "Hamas and other factions [06:43] agree to not have any role in the [06:46] governance of Gaza. All military and [06:48] terror infrastructure will be destroyed. [06:51] Will be destroyed. There will be a [06:53] process of demilitarization under [06:56] independent monitors. Weapons will be [06:58] placed permanently beyond the use beyond [07:01] use through an through an agreed-upon [07:03] process." Through an agreed through an [07:05] agreed-upon process. That's it. [07:08] Right? The answer to the most important [07:10] question in the entire plan, which is [07:12] who gets rid of Hamas? Who disarms [07:14] Hamas? Who dislodges them? [07:17] How does that happen? [07:19] This will be an agreed-upon process. [07:21] There will be a process of [07:23] demilitarization. There will be. [07:27] So, I decided to try to figure out who [07:29] exactly is responsible for this process. [07:32] And here's what I found for the [07:33] demilitarization of Hamas, the [07:35] agreed-upon process. [07:37] So, Trump was asked on Fox News, "Who's [07:39] going to disarm Hamas?" And he said, "We [07:41] don't know. Maybe we will, maybe the [07:43] Israelis will." But then that same week [07:45] Marco Rubio, Secretary of State, was [07:47] asked when on a visit to Israel [07:50] um [07:52] maybe Israel should be the one to disarm [07:54] Hamas. And he said, "No, no, no, you [07:55] can't have Israel disarm Hamas because [07:57] that would end the ceasefire. That'll be [07:59] the end of the ceasefire. That can't be. [08:00] Can't have Israel do it." And Trump, [08:02] just the other day, like it was like the [08:03] day before, said, "Maybe Israel will do [08:05] it." But then Steve Witkoff and Jared [08:08] Kushner, they were on 60 Minutes right [08:09] around that time. [08:11] And they were asked [08:13] but Leslie Stahl asked them directly, [08:15] "Who's going to disarm Hamas?" And they [08:16] said it'll be done by the international [08:18] stabilization force, which is the the [08:20] multinational force that the 20-point [08:22] plan calls to be created to be the the [08:25] internal security for Gaza [08:27] from all the partner countries, right? [08:29] So, and it's supposed to be under the [08:30] leadership of Jordan and Egypt. So then [08:34] uh King Abdullah of Jordan was being [08:35] interviewed on the BBC [08:38] right around then also and was asked [08:40] about what Witkoff and Kushner said, [08:43] that the international stabilization [08:44] force is going to be the one to disarm [08:46] Hamas. And he said [08:48] um [08:50] and he said, "No, no, no, the the [08:51] international stabilization force comes [08:54] in after Gaza is demilitarized. They're [08:56] a security force after it's been [08:58] demilitarized, after Hamas has been [08:59] removed. It's not a disarmament force." [09:01] And he's correct, by the way, if you go [09:03] back and read the 20-point plan. He is [09:05] correct. Witkoff and Kushner were wrong. [09:08] But think about this. We had a We had an [09:09] answer from Trump. We had an answer from [09:10] Rubio, right? Trump said he he's not [09:12] sure. Rubio said maybe it can't be [09:14] Israel. Witkoff and Kushner say it's the [09:15] ISF. The ISF says it's not them. Right? [09:18] That's [09:20] that's [09:22] the disarmament of Hamas. The whole The [09:25] only I mean [09:27] changing Gaza, making it no longer a [09:28] threat to Israel, it's disarming Hamas. [09:31] And no one knows who's supposed to do [09:32] the most the single most important thing [09:34] in the the plan, what the plan actually [09:36] is. The main the meat and potatoes. [09:39] And Jared Kushner [09:41] was at Davos showing slides of [09:43] beachfront condominiums, like making the [09:44] Gaza strip look like Boca Raton, [09:46] Florida. [09:50] So, it hit me listening to Hanan Gefen [09:52] today [09:53] that I understood what he meant by a [09:55] Wyckoff document written on chicken [09:57] feathers. [09:59] In other words, what we're seeing now, [10:00] cuz Wyckoff and Kushner are right in the [10:02] middle of this, [10:03] this isn't a one-time mistake. This is a [10:06] pattern. It shows you how these guys [10:07] operate. And once you see it, you can't [10:10] unsee it. Let me explain. [10:13] Wyckoff and Kushner are real estate guys [10:16] from New York. [10:19] Right? They're developers. They're real [10:20] estate guys from New York. Smart guys, [10:22] successful guys, [10:24] but they come from a world with a very [10:25] specific logic. [10:28] A negotiation logic, a deal-making [10:30] logic. And they're applying that logic [10:32] to the Middle East. And it does not [10:34] work. [10:36] In real estate, here's how a deal works. [10:39] You negotiate. You get the other side to [10:41] the table. You work out the big numbers, [10:43] the price, the timeline, the broad [10:45] strokes. You get it done. You You shake [10:47] hands. You You get the deal done. You [10:49] lock it in. You have a drink, right? And [10:51] then here's the key. You figure out the [10:53] details later. The hard stuff, the [10:55] complicated stuff, the stuff that could [10:57] blow up the deal if you put it on the [10:58] table too early, [11:00] you you defer it cuz you want to get the [11:02] deal done. You want to It's like an [11:03] agreement to move forward. [11:06] Right? You kick But you kick the big [11:08] issues to after the closing. You'll work [11:09] those out later. [11:12] There're lawyers for that. There's [11:13] contractors for that. Those are details. [11:15] There's a process. [11:18] And if the other side doesn't perform, [11:20] and the deal falls through over one of [11:21] those big issues, [11:23] so you litigate, or you walk away, or [11:26] you decide to eat the loss and move on [11:28] to the next deal, right? That's That's [11:30] it works. [11:31] You know? And you have more wins than [11:32] losses, you know, you [11:34] you're doing and you're having a good [11:35] year. [11:37] That's the playbook. [11:38] And in New York real estate [11:41] that works. [11:43] But here's what Kushner [11:45] have never figured out. And I I I I'm [11:47] not [11:49] I'm not saying this to mock them cuz I I [11:52] think that they genuinely believe in [11:54] what they're doing. They they both seem [11:55] like really sincere people who want to [11:57] make the world a better place and really [11:58] do believe that everyone just wants [12:00] prosperity and wants a nice life and [12:02] that and that and that people's own [12:04] economic well-being is actually more [12:06] important to them than their ideology. [12:09] They these guys honestly believe that [12:11] and that that's and that, you know, if [12:13] you if you describe what they consider a [12:15] better life that you too can, you know, [12:17] can you know, can live in Boca Raton, [12:19] Florida or whatever. [12:21] Uh [12:21] that [12:24] that that is enticing to everyone and [12:25] that's more important than their [12:26] ideologies. That's what they think. [12:30] And whether whether we're talking about [12:32] the Hamas ideology or the Iranian Shiite [12:34] Twelver Islam ideology, I don't care. [12:40] I I think that Kushner are good people [12:43] who believe in what they're doing. But [12:44] in the geopolitics of the Middle East [12:47] there's you can't work things out after [12:49] the closing. [12:51] You don't close the deal and work out [12:52] the and work out the the most important [12:54] details later because there is no after [12:55] the closing. You can't litigate Iran's [12:57] nuclear program and or take it as a loss [12:59] and walk. [13:01] You can't walk away from Hamas still [13:02] controlling Gaza and and just call it a [13:04] loss and move on. [13:07] Okay, you can't defer the question of [13:09] who disarms [13:11] Hamas or Hezbollah to some later stage [13:15] because that question, the impossible, [13:17] uncomfortable, deal-breaker question, [13:20] that is the deal. [13:23] It is the entire ballgame and everything [13:24] else, the beachfront condominiums, the [13:26] board of peace, the high-tech [13:27] Mediterranean resort, the Singapore of [13:29] the Middle East and Gaza, or whatever [13:31] they're hoping for out in oh, you know, [13:33] Iran, they've they're going to agree [13:34] never to have a nuclear weapon, and then [13:36] we're going to start engaging in all [13:37] sorts of economic activity, and that's [13:38] going to and that's going to keep them [13:39] at bay, and we're going to have, you [13:41] know, and it's it's all going to be [13:42] good, and they're going to have peaceful [13:43] relations cuz everyone's going to make a [13:44] lot of money from it. [13:48] It's all conditional on answering the [13:50] big questions that you're the very [13:52] questions you're kicking down the can [13:54] you're kicking down the road so that you [13:56] can get the deal done are the questions [13:57] that are going to make it impossible to [13:59] move on to the next stage. [14:03] And Hanan Gefen, who's one of the [14:05] sharpest intelligence minds in Israel, [14:08] he looked at the Iran framework [14:09] agreement, and he saw he [14:12] pattern recognition. He saw it. [14:15] He saw the same thing as what happened [14:17] in Gaza. [14:18] The most contentious issue, the hardest [14:20] problem, [14:21] the nuclear stuff, the one question that [14:23] determines whether any of this is real [14:25] or or or is is a complete failure, [14:29] that's left vague deliberately because [14:31] you you cuz you want to get a deal done. [14:35] Putting the answer in the document would [14:37] have meant no document. [14:39] A Witkoff document written on chicken [14:41] feathers. [14:45] Okay, now here's where I'm going to [14:46] leave you. [14:47] Gefen said that he thinks that the Iran [14:49] deal collapses before 60 days. [14:51] Okay, I think he's I think he's probably [14:53] right. I mean, I I I [14:56] who am I to argue? And and uh sounds [14:58] about right. [15:01] But when it does, watch how it's going [15:02] to be described. [15:04] Cuz if you ask the Witkoff-Kushner gang [15:07] if Gaza has been a failure, they haven't [15:09] even gotten past the Hamas disarmament, [15:12] which is like the first stage, it's like [15:14] the first step after the hostages come [15:16] home and after the prisoners are [15:17] released, like that first step, Hamas [15:19] has to be disarmed, it's the [15:20] precondition for everything else. They [15:21] haven't even haven't even got past [15:23] there. And if you ask Woodcuff and [15:24] Kushner, do you think it was a success? [15:25] They'd say, "Yeah, sure. It's a great [15:26] first step, and there's lots you know, [15:28] there's still a bright future there, and [15:30] yeah, and it's going to take time, and [15:31] but it's all you know, [15:35] it's going to be the same thing here. [15:40] This deal, if this deal falls apart [15:42] before 60 days, it'll be called a good [15:44] first step, a foundation to build on, [15:47] an opening of dialogue. [15:51] Maybe. I don't know. I don't know what's [15:52] going to happen. I don't know how [15:53] Trump's going to behave if it falls [15:54] apart. [15:55] But here's the other thing about the [15:57] about the Woodcuff-Kushner playbook. [16:01] Right? [16:03] Whatever. [16:05] Everything's always progress. [16:06] Everything's always a success. [16:09] Right? We've seen this before. [16:11] We're seeing it again. [16:13] That's what this is. [16:17] Now, the question I keep asking, and I [16:18] don't have a good answer for it, is um [16:22] how many times are we going to go down [16:23] this path before someone in the [16:25] administration decides that maybe the [16:27] hard questions [16:29] should be answered before the ceremony, [16:32] not after it? [16:36] Dealing with Iran is not is not the a [16:38] question of beachfront property in need [16:40] of renovation or a or [16:42] or something you can do with I don't [16:44] know, the tenant in your building. [16:48] This is This is This is high stakes. [16:50] It's the Middle East. [16:52] And these details you kick down the you [16:54] know, that you're kicking down the road [16:56] are not details. [16:58] They're They're what we're fighting for. [17:03] All right. That's what I had to say [17:04] about this one. [17:06] Thanks for watching.
