Transcript [00:00] A lot of people are misunderstanding [00:02] this cease this quote unquote ceasefire [00:05] that we're in because the bombing [00:06] stopped and and the and the missiles [00:08] flying at Israel stopped and everyone [00:11] had everyone's talking as though that [00:13] you know we're in a ceasefire and I [00:16] think it's a big misunderstanding [00:18] and I want to lay it all out explain it [00:20] all in this video. We're gonna to start [00:22] us off with this. Let's go to General [00:25] Jack Keane on u on Fox News. Okay. And [00:30] then uh and then I'll come right back. [00:32] Here we go. [00:32] >> Joining me now, retired fourstar general [00:34] Jack Keane, chairman of the Institute [00:36] for the Study of War at Fox News senior [00:38] strategic analyst. Uh General Keen, [00:40] always good to have you with us. Um, you [00:42] hear this discussion and the potential [00:44] for Iranian fast boats that could attack [00:48] some of these ships coming through or [00:50] that the Houthis might uh resurge in [00:53] order to try to close off the other [00:55] opening that the Saudis use primarily [00:57] for their oil transit on the Red Sea. [01:00] Where do you think this is headed today, [01:01] General? [01:04] Well, I think we've turned the momentum [01:06] clearly around here that what happened [01:08] is certainly the Iranians shut down the [01:10] Straits of Amuse and they got a [01:12] ceasefire out of that. The war was [01:14] stopped. That's what that that's kind of [01:15] what they wanted. They offered [01:16] negotiations, but what they really [01:18] wanted was a war to stop because we were [01:20] pounding the daylights out of them and [01:24] and the president, his national security [01:25] team, and certainly the Sentcom [01:27] commander assessed that situation. This [01:30] is the strength of the American [01:32] military. very adaptable. We're [01:34] flexible. We see what the enemy does and [01:37] we we certainly switch plans and react [01:40] accordingly. So, you're seeing that [01:43] reaction here. And and clearly what we [01:46] have achieved here is we're shutting [01:47] down Iran's source of income. Period. [01:51] That is what has taken place before our [01:53] eyes. That's economic warfare. And what [01:55] is it given? has given the [01:57] administration considerably more [01:59] leverage going into these negotiations [02:01] than what they had the first time. [02:03] That's the reality of what took place. I [02:04] think the Iranians have made two [02:06] miscalculations here. Yes, they they [02:10] shut the straits of moves down and we [02:12] began to pay an economic and political [02:14] price for that inside the United States [02:16] and yes, there was certainly pressure on [02:19] the administration and on President [02:20] Trump as a result of that. They went [02:23] into those negotiations thinking this is [02:26] going to be good for us because the [02:28] administration is going to make some [02:29] concessions to us because of that [02:31] pressure. Wrong. That did not happen. As [02:34] a matter of fact, we stood our ground. [02:35] The president is talking to his team. He [02:37] said, "I want everything and they didn't [02:39] get everything and I had to go home with [02:42] the tail between their legs and figure [02:44] out what's the strategy next here." The [02:47] other thing is they're threatening as [02:49] usual strong rhetoric how they're going [02:52] to interfere with what we're doing here [02:54] in terms of this blockade which is [02:56] taking all of their revenue away. Well, [02:58] if they're going to do that over the [03:00] next 8 days, you know what's going to [03:02] happen. We're back in full combat [03:03] operations again. They know that. We'll [03:06] see if they're actually going to take [03:08] that move. In terms of where we're going [03:12] here, remember this is phase one, the [03:15] blockade, take their revenue away from [03:17] them and and make certain that there is [03:20] no ships going in, going out, dealing [03:22] with Iranian oil. But how much of the [03:25] other ships that are not involved in [03:27] Iran running at all? All the rest of [03:30] those countries there that are [03:31] distributing oil, are they going to flow [03:34] through the straits? Are they still [03:35] going to be in their minds? are the [03:37] owners of the ships still feel it's too [03:40] dangerous to do that because of the [03:42] Iranian threat that had existed and it [03:45] in their minds does it still exist. the [03:48] United States military and the president [03:50] are prepared for that reality. And if [03:53] that doesn't open up, and certainly [03:55] we'll see if it does, my judgment is it [03:57] probably won't. [03:59] >> And that brings in then the operation to [04:02] open up the straits. And what the [04:04] military mission is first clear it, get [04:06] the mines out of there, make it secure, [04:10] and then prepare to escort ships through [04:12] it and protect them all through that [04:14] escort with drones out. uh around them [04:18] and drones hundreds of miles away [04:20] picking up any missiles that are coming. [04:22] Same thing with aircraft. Protect that [04:25] entire transit through there. And that's [04:27] a longer operation. And at some point, [04:30] if we have to continue that operation, [04:32] then we would turn it likely over to [04:34] allies and partners. So there's really [04:36] two phases to this. The phase one, the [04:39] block eight phase, and then two, do we [04:41] need the other phase? And assuming that [04:43] we may need the other phase, [04:45] preparations are being made certainly to [04:47] do that phase and do it earnestly and [04:49] successfully. [04:50] >> Who would those allies and partners be [04:52] in that phase too? [04:55] >> Yeah, they would be. And there are a [04:57] number of them that have volunteered to [04:59] do that. [05:00] >> There's a number of European countries [05:02] that are going to participate. Certainly [05:04] allied countries, uh, the Arab countries [05:06] in the region are going to participate [05:08] in that as well. And I think there may [05:10] be some Asian countries, but I'm not [05:11] sure yet. There's been some discussions [05:13] with them in in terms of participation. [05:16] >> Yeah. [05:17] >> So, listen, uh we we need help to do [05:20] that. [05:21] >> Uh no doubt about it. And and we've said [05:23] that from the beginning. We can start it [05:25] and make sure it's secure. And that [05:27] that's one of the things the the other [05:29] countries don't want to be involved in [05:31] in in getting that level of security [05:33] established. But we f frankly do need [05:36] some assistance to carry that on over [05:38] time. And hopefully that uh the promise [05:41] that we're getting hopefully is [05:43] fulfilled. [05:44] >> Yeah. Well, as the president says, uh [05:45] Asia and Europe have a lot more transit [05:48] through this area than we do. Um so [05:50] hopefully uh they'll change their mind. [05:52] Stormer doesn't seem to be on the same [05:54] page at the moment. Uh but we'll see [05:55] where this goes. Thank you so much. [05:58] >> All right. So, let's talk about this uh [06:00] this quote unquote ceasefire. I want to [06:02] unpack what General Keane said there [06:05] because he he wasn't as explicit [06:08] uh as he could have been. [06:11] There is no ceasefire. [06:14] They wanted a ceasefire. The Iranians [06:17] were desperate for a ceasefire. [06:20] Let's pull back the camera and talk [06:21] about the trajectory of this whole war [06:23] and then we'll understand where we [06:25] actually are and how people are [06:26] misunderstanding the ceasefire. [06:29] The United States and Israel are [06:31] pummeling the Iranians, destroying [06:33] everything in sight, [06:35] crushing them, destroying their [06:37] military. The Iranians close the straits [06:39] of Hormuz, [06:41] okay, which is illegal. It is uh it it's [06:45] international waters. It's not owned or [06:47] controlled by anybody. So they they [06:49] control the Straits of Hormuz to cause [06:51] all this disruption. And Trump is every [06:54] day, open up the Straits of Hormuz, open [06:56] up the Straits of Hormuz. and he's and [06:57] he's dropping fbombs and tweets at them, [07:00] right? He's and the deal is with the [07:04] Iranians that they could get a ceasefire [07:07] if they open up the Straits of Hormuz [07:09] and come to the negotiating table. [07:12] Right now, I'll remind you that a week [07:16] into the war, [07:18] a week into the war, we saw this. Trump [07:21] demands unconditional surrender from [07:24] Iran. Okay? and he put out a tweet where [07:28] he wrote on truth so well a truth social [07:31] post there will be no deal with Iran [07:32] except unconditional surrender after [07:35] that and the selection of a great and [07:37] acceptable leader will make a wonderful [07:38] brave allies will make a we'll make Iran [07:40] great again okay but he said that [07:42] there's there's no acceptable outcome to [07:44] the war there's no acceptable end to the [07:46] war other than unconditional surrender [07:50] okay Iranians are getting pummeled the [07:53] Iranians are are are are are begging for [07:56] a ceasefire. Trump says, "If you open up [07:58] the straits, we'll have a ceasefire." [08:01] Now, think about unconditional [08:03] surrender. What does unconditional [08:05] surrender look like? It doesn't mean you [08:06] kill every last member of the IRGC and [08:09] the besiege and there's no more regime. [08:11] What is unconditional surrender? What [08:13] was it in Germany? What was it in Japan? [08:15] It means that one side says uncle [08:20] capitulates and surrenders to all of the [08:23] demands of the other side. Obviously [08:26] that happens in a negotiating room where [08:29] they surrender. [08:31] There's a meeting and they surrender, [08:34] right? And the guns go silent. And [08:36] that's what Trump was trying to [08:38] accomplish. He was try he was saying, [08:40] "Okay, we're pummeling you. You've [08:43] closed the straits of Hormuz. open up [08:45] the straits and come talk to us. And he [08:48] wanted to get an unconditional [08:49] surrender. So, they all get into the [08:51] room [08:52] and and what does Trump say about those [08:56] negotiations? Just to hammer home this [08:58] point, just to hammer home this point. [09:00] What does he say about those [09:01] negotiations here? Um, well, well, this [09:05] is actually right after the negotiations [09:07] fell apart because, um, we all know what [09:10] happened. The Americans laid out their [09:11] demands. The negotiations fell apart. [09:13] Everyone went home because the Iranians [09:15] weren't willing to agree to the American [09:17] demands. But what did Trump then say? [09:20] Listen to this. [09:22] >> Think of it. They're allowed to say [09:24] death to America, death to this, death [09:26] to know I make one statement. They say, [09:29] "Oh, such a big deal." Let me tell you [09:31] that statement got them to the [09:32] bargaining table. And they haven't left. [09:35] They haven't left the bargaining table. [09:37] I predict they come back and they give [09:39] us everything we want. And I told my [09:41] people, I want everything. I don't want [09:43] 90%. I don't want 95%. I told them I [09:47] want everything. Think of it. [09:49] >> Okay, before we go on, uh please uh [09:52] check out uh israel 365news.com. [09:57] Subscribe to the newsletter for Israel [10:00] 365 news, real analysis, no spin. My [10:04] writings are there as well. You could [10:06] also find uh uh the Israel 365 action [10:10] newsletter. This is a link that is in [10:12] the description of this video. The [10:14] headlines tell you what happened. We [10:16] tell you why. This is news and analysis [10:19] from a biblical perspective. The Israel [10:21] 365 news uh news newsletter is uh is a [10:26] daily newsletter that will just give you [10:28] the quick headlines and some good and [10:30] analytical pieces about what's going on [10:32] uh with Israel in the Middle East or [10:34] other issues that relate to those [10:36] topics. And the Israel 365 Action weekly [10:39] newsletter, uh, Israel 365 Action, the [10:42] organization I lead, is an advocacy [10:43] movement standing unapologetically for [10:46] Israel's God-given right to every inch [10:48] of the land of Israel, Judea, Samaria, [10:50] Jerusalem. We mobilize Jews and [10:52] Christians to counter the lies, confront [10:55] Israel's enemies, and defend [10:56] Judeo-Christian civilization at the [10:59] highest levels of government, media, and [11:01] grassroots activism. We host webinars. [11:03] We have all kinds of events. We put out [11:06] important information to help you defend [11:08] Israel. We run campaigns that you can [11:09] then be a part of um in order to move [11:12] the ball forward in the information [11:15] warfare space and in terms of advocacy [11:18] on behalf of Israel. So, please go sign [11:20] up for these two newsletters. Won't cost [11:21] you a dime and you can be plugged in to [11:24] everything that we're doing. You could [11:25] also also say go to the Israel 365 [11:27] action news uh sorry go to the Israel [11:30] 365 action website and you can find all [11:33] of u all of the Israel 365 video content [11:37] there. You could find all the clips of [11:38] my media appearances and uh again [11:41] information about everything that we're [11:42] up to now. [11:47] So I played you that clip that clip of [11:48] Trump saying we want everything. And [11:50] that's and that was after the Iranians [11:52] walked away from the table. So, let's [11:53] understand what just happened here. [11:56] Trump saw the ceasefire as an [12:00] opportunity to put the guns down, bring [12:03] them to the table, and have them [12:05] surrender. [12:07] And have them surrender. [12:09] Unconditional surrender. And that's why [12:12] he said, "I want not 90%, not 95%, but [12:16] all of my demands." All of them. In [12:18] other words, unconditional surrender. [12:20] This isn't really a negotiation. is for [12:22] the Iranians to capitulate and to agree [12:25] to the American demands. Period. That's [12:27] what he wants. Unconditional surrender. [12:30] Of course, again, of course, surrender [12:32] happens when you have to stop fighting [12:34] for the people to surrender. But what [12:37] happened? The Iranians didn't really [12:39] close the Straits of Hormuz, which means [12:41] that they violated the ceasefire. They [12:43] violated it. And and because closing the [12:46] Straits of Hormuz is a form of warfare, [12:49] which brings us to what Trump did next. [12:51] this current blockade that is going on. [12:53] You notice what General Keane said [12:54] there. They had wanted a ceasefire, but [12:56] this blockade is economic warfare and [13:00] this is a phase in the war. I'm [13:02] unpacking what he said there. You see, [13:04] this isn't really a ceasefire. [13:08] From time immemorial, going back to [13:10] biblical times, going back throughout [13:13] history, a siege, a blockade is a form [13:17] of warfare. It's a type of warfare. It's [13:20] not a pause in the war. When the Romans [13:22] laid siege to Jerusalem for months on [13:25] end, that wasn't that wasn't a pause in [13:27] waging war. That is part of waging war. [13:30] See, that's what everyone's missing [13:32] here. This war didn't there's no pause [13:35] in the war. There's a pause in the [13:37] kinetic activity of of the guns and and [13:40] the airplanes. But that's not a pause in [13:42] the war at all. It's just shifting to a [13:44] different type of warfare. So again, [13:45] here's what happened here. Trump said [13:47] from the outset he wants unconditional [13:48] surrender. Pummeling the Iranians, they [13:51] close the straits of Hormuz. He wants [13:52] them open. So he didn't say come and [13:56] surrender because then they never would [13:57] have come to the table and and and [13:58] agreed to open the straits. And that's [14:00] why Trump's not talking in terms of of [14:04] uh of them already having surrendered or [14:08] saying that he wants them to surrender. [14:09] He's saying he wants them to come to the [14:12] table and work out a deal. Okay. But [14:15] what he really wants, as he said to [14:16] Maria Barto Romo, is 100% of his [14:18] demands, which means he wants surrender. [14:20] Okay? They don't give into the demands. [14:23] He puts a blockade on them, which is [14:25] just moving to a different type of [14:26] warfare. It also having them partially [14:29] open the straits or pretend to open them [14:31] and pausing the fighting gave the [14:33] Americans the opportunity to consolidate [14:35] the resources they need to to open the [14:38] straits themselves and to start moving [14:41] into control the states of Hormuz. It [14:43] doesn't have to be done by bombing and [14:45] air raids and and all that. [14:48] But what the Americans have now done is [14:50] they've they've laid siege to Iran. [14:52] They've blocked off they haven't only [14:53] blocked off the straits of Hormuz. A lot [14:55] of people are missing this too. They've [14:56] blocked off all the ports of Iran so [14:59] that Iran's economy is now choked. That [15:02] is a form of warfare. The war has not [15:06] abaded at all. There was a pause to see [15:09] if they would surrender. They didn't. So [15:13] they moved to siege. So the Americans [15:16] moved to siege warfare. Okay, that's [15:19] what's happening. People are [15:20] misunderstanding this. And there's a lot [15:22] of people on our side who are all [15:23] worried, oh, there's going to be a deal. [15:24] The regime is going to going to remain [15:26] intact. No, it's not. The regime is not [15:30] going to remain intact. Just like look, [15:31] Hirohito surrendered to the Americans. [15:34] Okay, that doesn't mean that they all [15:36] got killed. There were some people [15:38] running Japan afterwards under the [15:39] opaces of the Americans on the terms set [15:42] by the Americans because it was [15:44] unconditional surrender. Trump has terms [15:47] and the terms he has set are the only [15:50] terms that are acceptable acceptable to [15:52] him. And if the Iranians come back to [15:54] the table and still don't accept them, [15:56] he's going to send them away again and [15:58] escalate further because he's what he [16:01] wants is unconditional surrender. He [16:04] wants victory, complete victory. Okay, [16:07] that's what we're seeing here. It's it's [16:09] unfolding [16:11] phase by phase, piece by piece, and the [16:14] rhetoric is not necessarily a rhetoric [16:17] of come and surrender. Like I said, that [16:19] that would be unproductive. And they're [16:21] using the rhetoric of cutting a deal. [16:23] But I don't think we have anything to [16:25] worry about about the regime remaining [16:28] somehow still in power in the course of [16:30] this because what whoever ends up [16:33] capitulating and surrendering even if [16:35] those words aren't used by them they'll [16:37] just call it a deal's been struck [16:39] between the United States and Iran. But [16:41] if 100% of the demands of Trump of the [16:44] Americans are are agreed to well that [16:46] will mean that they're not persecuting [16:48] their people. They're not funding their [16:49] proxies. They're not doing any of this [16:50] stuff. And the Americans are going to [16:52] are going to are going to keep a [16:53] watchful eye over their behavior. The [16:55] Israelis are going to keep a watchful [16:57] eye over their behavior. They're not [16:59] going to be able to to start shooting [17:01] protesters and protesters will come out [17:03] into the streets. There is going to be a [17:06] fall of the regime. The war and that's [17:07] why Trump keeps saying this war has [17:09] already been won. In a certain sense, it [17:10] has. It's just the other side isn't [17:12] isn't isn't agreeing isn't agreeing to [17:15] surrender. But make no mistake about it. [17:18] We've simply moved from the bombing air [17:21] raids phase of the war to the economic [17:23] war and the siege. A good old-fashioned [17:26] ancient type of warfare where you choke [17:29] off an economy. Now, siege warfare takes [17:33] time. It feels like nothing's happening [17:35] because we're just watching news clips, [17:37] but a lot is happening. Siege warfare [17:39] takes time. It builds day by day. [17:42] Picture it this way. There's an [17:43] escalation happening as a matter of [17:46] course because there's a siege laid to [17:47] the Iranian economy. They're not they're [17:49] not going to feel it on day one or day [17:51] two or they will already but they're not [17:53] going to it's going to keep building and [17:55] building and building. Okay, that's [17:57] where we are in the war. This isn't a [18:00] ceasefire. There was an attempt at a [18:02] ceasefire [18:04] to facilitate a surrender. The ceasefire [18:07] is over. We're now in the next phase of [18:09] the war. That's what is happening here. [18:10] I hope I cleared that up. up. I hope it [18:12] made sense. I know I was a bit [18:14] repetitive. I'm sorry for that. But I [18:16] just want to be clear. I want to be [18:17] cleareyed so that we don't lose focus [18:19] and we don't get uh you know, there's a [18:22] sense of u of panic that some people [18:25] have every time. It looks like we're [18:27] going to stop short of actually winning [18:29] the war. There's a process here and [18:32] we're seeing it play out. All right.
