Transcript [00:00] So, I spent a lot of time last few days, [00:02] uh [00:03] you know, talking about this memorandum [00:05] of understanding, talking about all the [00:06] things that are wrong with it. And there [00:08] was one uh audience member who mentioned [00:10] in a comment that you know, uh you know, [00:13] I'm always bashing Trump's policies. I'm [00:15] I'm Listen, I'm a huge supporter of [00:17] President Trump, but we just I I keep [00:19] stressing we have to be honest about [00:20] what we're seeing here. [00:22] And as much as I've my position on the [00:26] MOU [00:28] on this whole deal, this whole [00:29] negotiation, is that it's built to fail. [00:32] Uh [00:33] that it's going to fall apart sooner [00:35] rather than later. [00:38] The question then becomes, is there any [00:40] chance of success? [00:42] And what would a chance of success look [00:44] like? [00:45] And when it does actually fail, [00:49] this is even an even more important [00:50] question. [00:52] If and when, it's not even if, when it [00:54] falls apart, what does that falling [00:56] apart look like? [00:58] Cuz the Iranians are for sure gaming [00:59] this out. They're gaming out like, they [01:02] know they're blowing it up. [01:04] And they know that they're [01:06] that they're poking the Americans and [01:08] they're denying that they agreed to the [01:09] things they denied to. And they're going [01:11] to and they're not really going to allow [01:12] the inspectors in and and they're going [01:14] to play games with everything. [01:17] And the question is, what how are they [01:18] gaming out what America's reaction's [01:20] going to be? And I was thinking about [01:22] this as I was watching a recent uh video [01:26] of Victor Davis Hanson. I want to play [01:27] you an excerpt of his of a recent [01:28] podcast of his. [01:30] And he makes a very interesting point [01:32] near the beginning, but then he says [01:33] some other things also through the clip. [01:35] So, I'm going to play it and I'm going [01:36] to stop at a few points [01:38] and make some comments. So, here's [01:39] Victor Davis Hanson. [01:41] >> missing [01:42] a couple of premises. [01:44] Number one, we don't know the extent of [01:47] damage in Iran. [01:49] No ground troops, no embedded reporters, [01:51] no news, no internet there. [01:54] Trump said a trillion dollars or two [01:56] trillion, maybe even if it's a half [01:58] trillion, it's a 50-year investment in [02:00] military nuclear industrial complex, and [02:03] a lot of it's ruined. [02:05] And they have been embargoed, [02:08] um, and they've been sanctioned, their [02:09] assets are frozen, they're losing $400 [02:11] million a day [02:12] in revenue. [02:14] So, they're in bad shape. We don't know [02:15] how bad they are. That's number one. [02:19] Uh, [02:19] number two, [02:22] we're not a pro- [02:23] Iran is not a protectorate of the United [02:25] States. We It's a 93 million people. [02:28] It's 1 and 1/2 times the size of Texas. [02:31] >> [sighs and gasps] [02:32] >> And we don't have a good record [02:34] of going in on the ground and managing a [02:38] country. We saw that in Afghanistan, we [02:40] saw that in Iraq. 7,500 dead, [02:45] two two trillion dollars, and look at [02:47] the Taliban is still in control. So, [02:50] we're not going to go in there and [02:51] manage it. If you're not going to go in [02:52] there and manage it, [02:54] then your [02:57] your control over that regime is [02:59] limited, especially when it has patrons [03:01] that are nuclear like Russia and China. [03:04] And they want to get back in. So, my [03:06] point is simply this, [03:08] can you stop them from enriching? Yes. [03:11] You can say we're going to bomb the [03:13] moment we see you tamper with pickaxe [03:15] mountain or any of those [03:18] areas. And can we stop them from closing [03:21] the straits? Yes. You have to open the [03:23] straits or we're not going to lift the [03:25] blockade. The key to all this memorandum [03:27] of understanding is [03:30] will he use force when they inevitably [03:33] cheat? [03:34] So, a week from now, if they think, [03:36] "Well, [03:38] we got a lot of concessions, we're going [03:39] to send three missiles into the hated [03:41] UAE. [03:42] And we're going to send a couple more [03:44] into Kuwait, they have a big Shia [03:46] arrested population." And if Trump says, [03:48] "Oh, that was just a love tap." It won't [03:50] work. [03:51] He's got to say, "Okay, you sent three, [03:53] you're going to lose 10 bridges. [03:55] You sent three against Kuwait, you're [03:57] going to lose a power grid." He hasn't [03:59] done that yet. People forget there's a [04:01] whole list of targets that Obama went [04:04] after in Libya and a whole typology that [04:08] Clinton went after. We were in the same [04:10] place in Serbia 1999. It was not working [04:13] after 60 days. [04:15] We did We limited and then all of a [04:16] sudden Clinton went wild. All the [04:19] bridges gone in the annual the grid. He [04:21] I wouldn't do it. He hits museums. He [04:24] hits hospital. He hit everything. [04:27] Anytime he heard they were using [04:28] something that he thought he wouldn't [04:30] hit, they hit and that stopped him after [04:32] 78 days. My point is [04:36] >> Okay. [04:37] This is huge huge point he's making [04:39] here. [04:42] What he basically just said, I mean, [04:43] this is almost a quote. Maybe this is a [04:45] quote of what he just said. I didn't [04:46] memorize it. [04:48] Is that the whole question's going to be [04:50] is Trump going to use force when they [04:52] play games? [04:55] Is he actually going to use force? And [04:57] it can't just be a love tap. It can't [04:58] just be a little bit. [05:02] That's the whole name of the game. But, [05:04] I want to modify what he's saying here. [05:08] Cuz I don't think that the Iranians [05:11] consider [05:15] a few missile strikes [05:17] as a reason to capitulate to any of the [05:19] demands. [05:21] We are [05:23] in exactly the same place strategically [05:25] strategically [05:27] as we were before the whole war started. [05:30] The whole build-up of everything in the [05:32] Gulf [05:34] massive of the biggest military build-up [05:36] in decades [05:39] and Trump wondering why Witkoff [05:42] admitting that Trump is confused, why [05:44] haven't they capitulated? [05:46] And I argued [05:47] on channel, in the Jerusalem Post, on [05:50] other shows, [05:51] I said, "They do not want to [05:54] capitulate." So much so that they'd [05:56] rather go to war, even though they know [05:58] they're no match for the American [05:59] military. They'd rather go to war than [06:01] capitulate. [06:03] Because damage [06:05] is not [06:07] as fatal to their regime. Damage from [06:10] bombing is not as fatal to their regime, [06:12] is not as much of a danger to their hold [06:14] on power [06:15] as capitulation to American demands. [06:18] That is That was true then, and it is [06:20] just as true today. [06:24] It is just as true today. [06:27] If you'd ask them today, "Would you [06:28] rather give in to the American demands [06:31] or have them bomb you some more?" [06:34] They will choose getting bombed some [06:35] more. [06:37] So, Victor Davis Hanson is half right. [06:40] The question is Is Trump willing to bomb [06:42] them more than a love tap? But, it's [06:44] more than that. [06:46] Is Trump willing to bomb them so much [06:51] that the regime is threatened? [06:55] Is he willing to [06:57] to kill them, [06:58] the actual leaders, [07:00] to do assassinations, like was done on [07:02] the first day of the war when they [07:03] killed Khamenei? [07:05] That's the type of force, that type of [07:08] The only thing they fear is the loss of [07:10] their regime. [07:11] So, the only credible force that will [07:13] work as a as an inducement to them [07:17] or as a deterrent, I don't believe [07:18] there's anything that will. I think you [07:19] have to take the regime down. But, even [07:21] if you're thinking that way, it's not [07:22] enough [07:24] to threaten by destroying some bridges, [07:25] like he was talking about. [07:28] It's not enough. [07:30] And the Trump administration is learning [07:32] that lesson. They're learning that [07:33] lesson right now. I made a video earlier [07:35] today [07:36] about how Iran is just denying they [07:39] agreed to anything pretty much. [07:43] Let's go on. He's got more to say here. [07:45] But this to me is the whole This is the [07:46] whole game right here. [07:48] The whole question is, do they [07:51] do they believe that Trump will actually [07:52] attack them? And and there you know, let [07:54] me finish the thought before we move on. [07:57] And the sad answer is [07:59] that they are actually pretty confident [08:01] that Trump is so against doing anything [08:04] kinetic [08:05] that he's not going to and that if he [08:07] does, it'll be very limited and very [08:09] short term. [08:11] And they could weather that storm. [08:15] It's true. There were some bombing for a [08:17] couple days that brought them to the [08:18] negotiating table, but then they didn't [08:20] but but then they just messed around at [08:21] the negotiating table. [08:25] So [08:27] So that's where we are. So let's play a [08:29] little more of this. [08:29] >> They have a whole list of targets that [08:31] we haven't even touched. [08:33] But you can shut down that entire [08:34] economy in 2 days if you hit them. [08:37] You take out two big power plants in [08:39] Tehran and you're in big trouble. And [08:41] you take out the power, where's all [08:43] these missile factories and every where [08:45] are they getting their power? It's on [08:47] the grid. [08:49] You hit them and they're in trouble. [08:51] So we can do that. And if he's [08:53] [clears throat] going to do it, it [08:53] doesn't really matter. All he has to say [08:55] is [08:56] we can't control it what you do, but if [08:59] we decide you're funding terrorists that [09:00] attack us, if we find that you're [09:03] building missiles that are shoot [09:04] launching, he doesn't have to have them [09:06] in the memorandum of agreement. If you [09:09] dare, he can he should have the nuclear [09:11] enrichment and he should have the [09:12] straits. [09:14] Meanwhile, [09:15] he's telling the UAE and the Israelis [09:19] and the Turks, "Hey you guys, [09:22] you all have avenues for pipelines. Get [09:24] to it. So double your capacity Saudi to [09:28] ship out the Red Sea. Double your triple [09:30] your capacity [09:32] uh [09:34] UAE to you're on the right side of the [09:37] Strait of Hormuz, go straight into the [09:39] Persian Gulf and double that. And then [09:41] Turkey [09:42] get a long pipeline into the into the [09:44] oil fields. You can do it. And Israel, [09:47] cut a deal and go right out of Haifa and [09:50] do it now. So the next time they do it, [09:53] we don't we're not over a barrel. And I [09:55] >> Now, this is a very important point and [09:58] and it could have to do with Trump's [09:59] entire strategy about this MOU because [10:02] the MOU is so lopsided in Iran's [10:04] direction and that's what everyone's [10:06] been up in arms about since it was [10:07] announced [10:09] that I'm that I'm starting to think that [10:11] maybe Trump doesn't even care about all [10:13] the concessions in there because he knew [10:14] the deal was going to fall apart anyway. [10:17] And that he he just wanted to get the [10:19] Straits of Hormuz opened so that we can [10:21] open them and believing that once we get [10:23] them open this time [10:25] we can put the right mechanisms in place [10:28] that the [10:29] damage to the global economy, the damage [10:31] to oil prices could be [10:34] could be mitigated next time the [10:37] Iranians close the strait or the strait [10:38] gets closed for some for whatever reason [10:41] like if the if the Americans close it or [10:43] there's just there's just a war going on [10:45] there and ships are afraid to go [10:47] through. Whatever the reasons are. [10:49] I think that Trump [10:51] might just be buying time while at the [10:53] same time [10:55] counting on the Saudis, the Emirates, [10:57] etc. to ramp up alternative [11:01] routes to get oil out of the area. So [11:04] that's a good point. [11:06] >> I think they're doing that. Final thing [11:08] is [11:09] >> [sighs] [11:10] >> I [11:11] we don't care what the left says cuz on [11:13] one day he's Hitler and the next day [11:15] he's Neville Chamberlain. How come [11:16] Jeffries can't figure that out? Oh, he's [11:18] he's a chicken. He [11:20] he taco'd out. Trump always chickens out [11:23] the next day. He's Neville Chamberlain. [11:25] Oh, this is not we didn't get anything. [11:28] This was a useless [11:30] preemptive war that was too you know, [11:32] we're striking a school, you know, all [11:34] this stuff. It's just whatever Trump's [11:36] for that you don't pay any attention to [11:37] it. But on the right [11:41] what they're doing is they're getting [11:43] attacked in two places. So, there's [11:45] Steve Bannon, Tucker, Candace [11:48] Meghan Kelly, podcasters [11:51] and some politicians are angry that they [11:53] did anything at all. So, now it's like [11:57] we didn't want you to do anything, but [11:59] now you haven't done anything. [12:01] He they've done a lot. [12:03] They keep thinking that this is like the [12:04] Obama deal when [12:06] Iran was ascended convinced Obama [12:08] wouldn't lift a finger militarily and [12:11] they had all this infrastructure. [12:13] They're devastated. [12:15] It's not this they're not in 2016 and [12:18] Trump isn't Obama. He's got a lot more [12:20] assets at his disposal. [12:22] He doesn't have some crazy idea that [12:24] he's going to champion a a Shia [12:26] alternate crescent to rival the moderate [12:29] Arab regimes in Israel and empower [12:32] Damascus, Tehran, Gaza, Beirut. That was [12:35] Obama. Valerie Jarrett's Ben Rhodes' [12:38] idea. [12:39] So [12:40] there's a a lot of assets, but people [12:43] have to realize that [12:45] he's he's under a lot of pressure. If he [12:48] loses the house and the history says 38 [12:51] out of the last 41 midterms the in party [12:54] lost seats. [12:56] If he loses the house, number one, [12:58] they're going to impeach him on day one. [12:59] I don't mean that literally, but it's [13:01] going to start. Number two, they're [13:03] going to call in the entire Trump family [13:05] and they have the power of subpoena and [13:07] they're going to tie him. So, he's [13:08] getting [13:10] house members. [13:12] And they're saying to him, believe it or [13:13] not [13:15] believe it or not, Mr. President [13:18] given our redistricting that we're going [13:19] to beat these guys, the blue redistrict [13:22] red is going to win and given the racial [13:24] gerrymandering is going to stop some of [13:27] that and given that no one likes this [13:29] socialist agenda that the radical [13:32] that the radical candidates are [13:34] promoting [13:35] and given that the price of oil is going [13:38] down $75 a barrel, 65 is break even. [13:44] They're down to $4 a gap below $4. It [13:47] was only I think 330. [13:49] And they're saying to President, we can [13:51] win. [13:53] We have a chance of doing the [13:54] incredible, we can win, but but but but [13:57] you can't stay in there too long. [13:59] If you stay in there too long and you [14:01] have to to and the price of oil goes up, [14:03] we're dead. [14:05] So, [14:06] cut a deal and then if you have to do [14:08] something, just do it a day or two at a [14:10] time. [14:11] And keep the strait open. So [14:15] >> Okay, see there in lies the problem. [14:17] Therein lies the problem. [14:20] As I said, the Iranians [14:23] are not so concerned about the about [14:27] hearing there there being a day or two [14:29] of heavy bombing. [14:31] They're not. [14:33] Cuz that doesn't threaten to bring down [14:35] the regime. [14:38] And it's not going to make them [14:39] capitulate on these demands. They're not [14:41] going to allow inspectors in [14:44] to the key sites that they need to get [14:46] into. They're not going to allow the [14:48] enriched uranium to be brought out of [14:49] the country. [14:51] They're not going to [14:54] stop having Hezbollah attack Israel. [14:56] They're not going to stop with the [14:57] proxies. [15:00] They're just not going to agree. [15:02] They are not going to capitulate to the [15:04] American demands. [15:07] And unless there's a credible threat, [15:09] not just a force, [15:10] but a force that could threaten the [15:12] regime. And maybe that's what Trump [15:13] would have in mind on those one or two [15:15] days of bombing here and there to [15:16] actually bring down such major pieces of [15:18] infrastructure like he talked about [15:19] power plants. [15:21] That those themselves do the regime. [15:23] Maybe that's the thinking. [15:25] But that's a real tightrope that Trump [15:26] would be walking there. [15:29] What he's saying here is that look [15:32] the Republicans need the price of [15:33] of oil to stay low so that they could [15:35] win and I appreciate that. The worst [15:37] thing would be [15:38] if we return to kinetic now and it [15:41] turned the American public against Trump [15:42] and and then because of that the [15:45] Republicans lost the House and the [15:46] Senate or or one of them. [15:48] That would be a disaster and we can't [15:50] and we can't afford that. No one can [15:51] afford that. Israel can't afford that. [15:53] We can't have that happen. So I [15:54] appreciate the you know the bind that [15:56] we're in. I'm not advocating for Trump [15:57] to go back to full-scale kinetic action [15:59] and bring down the regime now. I'm not [16:01] advocating that. [16:04] What I am saying [16:06] is that we have is that this reminds us [16:08] that the original sin of this whole [16:11] situation [16:12] was stopping the war on April 8th. [16:15] That was the original sin. [16:18] Because as these legislators as he's [16:20] saying these legislators are basically [16:21] saying to Trump make it quick. It would [16:24] have been quick. [16:26] Drive to victory. Bring them down. [16:29] Eliminate this regime. That could have [16:31] been done. It could have been in our [16:31] rearview mirror already. [16:34] But that's not where we are. [16:37] So yeah, there has to be a credible [16:39] threat of force. [16:41] The Iranians have to know that it's [16:42] coming but it has to be so devastating [16:45] that it would give them an incentive to [16:46] give in on some of these demands which [16:48] they see as a moral threat to their [16:51] regime. [16:52] Which means that the credible threat of [16:54] force [16:56] has to be a threat of force that itself [16:59] would threaten the regime. [17:00] Because what they're looking at is [17:02] capitulation to American demands [17:04] brings down the regime. That's how they [17:06] see it. [17:08] Versus suffering tremendous damage but [17:10] the regime stays intact. They're going [17:12] to pick that every time. [17:15] So yeah, we're you know Trump's in a you [17:17] know Trump's in a bit of a bind. It's a [17:19] really tight spot he's in. [17:21] And uh [17:23] yeah. [17:24] Just more to think about in the days [17:25] ahead. [17:26] So, this is uh I keep saying the same [17:28] thing. This story is far far from over. [17:31] There are many twists and turns yet [17:32] ahead of us. [17:34] So, keep watching.
