Transcript [00:00] So, are we winning? Are things going [00:02] well? [00:04] You know, the other day I made a video [00:06] about oil prices. You might have seen it [00:08] on this channel, and I was pretty [00:09] upbeat. I was pretty positive about [00:10] where things are headed. [00:12] And one uh one viewer commented that I'm [00:16] all over the place, that one day I'm [00:18] anxious and and talking about how things [00:20] are going sideways and and you know, [00:22] Trump's getting played by the Iranians, [00:24] and then the next day I'm all positive [00:25] about where things are going. [00:27] >> [laughter] [00:27] >> I want to be very clear. [00:29] If you had show on on October 7th, on [00:32] October 8th, 2023, if you had showed me [00:35] the reality we're in now, where Israel [00:37] is stronger than it's ever been, the [00:39] economy in Israel is doing better than [00:40] it's ever been, regionally Israel's more [00:42] of a superpower than it's ever been, [00:44] Hezbollah is on the run, on the verge of [00:47] being destroyed, and the and and the [00:50] tide is turning in Lebanon against them, [00:53] what's happen what's happened to Hamas [00:54] in Gaza, even though they're still [00:56] there, what we've done to them, [00:58] uh [00:59] the Assad regime is gone, the Iranian [01:01] regime is being brought to its knees, I [01:04] I'm thrilled with the way things have [01:05] gone. That said, it's still important to [01:08] be clear-eyed and to call out where [01:11] mistakes are being made, and the [01:13] prospect still remains that when the [01:16] dust settles on all of this, that regime [01:18] in Tehran [01:20] could still be in power. And if they [01:22] are, they could reconstitute themselves. [01:24] Until they're gone, they're not gone. [01:27] And if they remain in power, they can [01:29] rebuild themselves. It could take a [01:30] little longer. It could take less long, [01:32] depending on how things end. They still [01:34] have the Chinese and the Russians in [01:36] their in their corner. [01:38] There's a lot of reasons to still be [01:41] concerned. [01:43] That said, what's happened over the last [01:45] few days, what we've learned over the [01:47] last few days, what we've seen over the [01:48] last few days, really just this week, [01:51] has put me in a more positive mood than [01:53] I've been in in a while. And that's what [01:55] I want to get into in this video. Why am [01:57] I feeling optimistic? Why am I feeling [01:58] good about what we're seeing? [02:01] So, I want to frame this [02:03] with a clip from Victor Davis Hanson, uh [02:06] which was just released. [02:08] And this is a short clip. It's a piece [02:09] of his podcast. It's only about six six [02:11] and a half minutes we're going to play. [02:13] And then I'm going to expand on what he [02:15] said, share a few headlines, and talk [02:17] about why I'm feeling good about where [02:19] things are going, [02:20] and and what I think uh what I think [02:22] we're seeing ahead of us. So, let's go [02:25] ahead. Let's pull this clip up here. [02:28] This is Victor Davis Hanson. [02:32] >> We know that after the 38 days of [02:35] bombing, now we've had over 50, [02:38] and we're [02:39] less than 5 months away from the [02:41] midterms. So, I was suggesting that he [02:44] could give an ultimatum [02:46] saying that you have to surrender your [02:49] nuclear enrichment, you have to [02:51] surrender your missile arsenal, you have [02:53] to stop the subsidies to Houthis, Hamas, [02:56] and Hezbollah, and you have uh to help [03:00] us with the Strait of Hormuz, [03:02] and give them about a week to do it, and [03:04] then go back kinetically and make it [03:07] impossible for them to wage war for the [03:09] next 10 years. And that can be defined a [03:12] lot of ways. [03:13] However, [03:14] I wasn't necessarily critical of Trump [03:17] because I can see [03:19] and I saw what his strategy is, and it [03:21] may work. [03:23] His strategy is [03:25] I'm going to {quote} {unquote} negotiate [03:29] cuz I don't want to hurt the resistance, [03:32] but I'm not really negotiating [03:35] uh [03:36] in the traditional sense. They are in [03:38] bad faith by trying to prolong it, [03:41] but I [03:42] am in the driver's seat because they're [03:45] losing 4 to 500 million dollars a day in [03:48] economic output, [03:50] and their oil is sanctioned. [03:54] And the people were starting to get [03:57] indications are rising up or they're at [03:59] least much more restive on than they [04:01] were. [04:03] So what what's happening is we don't [04:05] have any accurate information because [04:07] this is the first war it's entirely by [04:10] war. I I went back and looked at the [04:12] Serbian war where we did not have troops [04:15] on the ground. [04:17] And people were saying that Clinton had [04:19] lost that war. [04:21] And Mark um we had all of the [04:24] psychodramas between the Russians and [04:26] us. Wesley Clark had sort of overreached [04:29] and the British [04:31] uh compatriot four-star said I'm not [04:33] going to start World War over you and it [04:35] was a mess. [04:36] And then Clinton kind of went crazy and [04:38] he started bombing the bridges on the [04:40] Danube and he started to [04:42] bomb the power grid and all of a sudden [04:44] Milosevic said quite uncle quite [04:46] unexpectedly after 72 days. [04:49] So that was 72 days of continuous [04:51] bombing not 38. [04:53] So what I'm getting at is today in [04:56] various news sources they there seems to [04:59] be that a thousand tankers have already [05:01] been escorted in [05:04] and loaded up with Gulf oil and are out. [05:08] And that the Iranians are losing the [05:10] ability day by day to stop that and [05:14] they're [05:15] they're losing the ability to stop that [05:17] because they have no money. [05:19] And they have no spare uh spare parts [05:21] and they don't even have gasoline the [05:23] the lines are getting longer. [05:25] So what Trump is saying is I'm ramping [05:28] it up. I'm not just idle [05:30] being played by the Iranians. I don't [05:32] have to kill very many more Iranians [05:34] because [05:36] the momentum is shifting so the price of [05:38] oil has gone from 110 down to $90 and [05:40] it's going to go further as that news [05:43] gets out that if you want to send a [05:45] tanker into the straits [05:47] the straight and get, you know, Kuwaiti [05:50] oil or Saudi oil [05:52] or you you can do it. [05:54] And it's going to be fairly safe to do [05:56] it because the Iranians each day are [05:59] losing the capability to stop you. [06:02] That's one thing. The second thing is [06:06] Condoleezza Rice wrote a really good [06:08] op-ed and one of the things she pointed [06:10] out and she was I think very upbeat and [06:12] but empirical. She pointed out under no [06:15] circumstances should we do what the [06:17] Obama people did and release the [06:19] sanction [06:20] the stop the sanctions and release the [06:22] frozen assets. [06:24] That's what Iran used to violate the [06:27] spirit and the principle of the first uh [06:30] Iran deal by [06:32] buying themselves a missile fleet and a [06:34] missile assembly of capability to [06:36] protect all of their nuclear sites. [06:39] So, what Bassam is reportedly doing, [06:42] Jack, is and you [06:44] I think you and I discussed it. [06:46] He's [06:47] going to release the $26 billion [06:50] to to countries in the Gulf and I [06:53] I imagine Israel would have [06:55] multi-billion dollar damage. [06:57] And I think they've suffered something [06:59] like 10 or 12 billion and we've suffered [07:01] on our bases and stuff. [07:03] So, that is going to really hurt the [07:04] Iranians cuz they are desperate for [07:06] cash. [07:08] And there are reports this weekend as we [07:11] speak that high school students are [07:14] taking to the street [07:15] in Iran. There's more disruptions [07:18] and the price of oil is predicted to go [07:21] down especially as they're really [07:23] ramping up Venezuelan production. [07:25] Russia's ramping it up. We are ramping [07:27] it up. [07:28] And the Saudis are getting and the UAE [07:31] is getting more oil out in their [07:33] alternative systems and rapidly trying [07:35] to plan to build up [07:37] uh pipelines so that Iran would never be [07:39] able to do this again [07:41] by hijacking the straight. So, it looks [07:43] pretty uh upbeat. So, I think what Trump [07:47] is doing he is betting in a very [07:49] dangerous game, but still he believes [07:52] that they're going to crack [07:54] uh fairly soon and that crack will be [07:58] typified by crash in oil prices and that [08:00] will save him in the midterm. I don't [08:02] know if that's going to be accurate or [08:03] not, but that's the strategy that he [08:05] has. [08:06] I would like to accelerate the process a [08:08] little bit [08:10] a lot by hitting the targets that we [08:13] have not hit yet. [08:15] But, this administration would argue, [08:17] "Well, wait a minute. We feel that the [08:19] people [08:21] have temporarily ceased because they [08:23] don't want to see their infrastructure [08:24] that they're going to inherit damaged [08:27] and if we do that, we might damage [08:29] them." [08:30] So, it would be if it is true [08:33] that the Israelis and the Americans are [08:36] now reconsidering arming the Kurds, [08:38] they're [08:39] They have active operatives inside Iran. [08:45] The Iranian opposition is getting [08:47] bolder. [08:48] The country is falling apart literally [08:51] and the military hasn't paid their [08:55] Islamic Republican Guard Corps [08:57] operatives in a long time and [09:00] they don't have the ability or the [09:02] financial wherewithal to close that [09:04] straight much longer if at all. [09:08] So, I think it's a pretty upbeat [09:10] assessment. It's just that [09:12] >> [gasps] [09:12] >> uh I wish we if we had sanctioned them [09:15] and frozen assets and all that much [09:18] earlier, I think we'd be ahead of the [09:20] curve, but we'll see. [09:22] >> Okay. [09:23] There's uh Victor Davis Hanson's [09:25] assessment of where things stand. So, [09:28] let me just uh [09:30] Let me just talk about that for a sec [09:31] before we before we go on. Look, the [09:33] thing that he said at the end there [09:34] about uh reports that the Israelis and [09:36] the Americans are talking about rearming [09:38] the Kurds. I have no idea what he's [09:40] talking about and I [09:42] dug and searched and went through the [09:44] sources that I use to find uh [09:47] information like this. I've seen no [09:49] reporting of this. I do not know where [09:51] he's getting it from. [09:52] And it would actually be very surprising [09:54] to me considering everything else that [09:56] Trump is doing [09:59] right now and how and he still he just [10:01] the other day he he again said that he [10:03] regrets sending weapons to the Kurds [10:06] that the Kurds deny they got. [10:08] So, I don't know about that. [10:11] But, [10:12] let's take a look at at some of the [10:13] other issues that he brought up there. [10:15] Now, he mentioned something that he's [10:18] talked about many times before that this [10:20] is the first war we've had [10:22] uh [10:23] in a very long time or ever where [10:24] there's no there's no because there's no [10:26] troops on the ground, there's also no [10:27] embedded reporters. There was that [10:29] internet shutdown in Iran and we had no [10:31] information coming out of Iran about [10:32] what was really going on there. Since [10:34] the internet got turned back we've now [10:36] started to see that the people are [10:39] coming back out into the streets. [10:42] It's starting with students. I made a [10:43] video about that the other day. [10:45] And so, we see there's there's some [10:46] unrest. People are getting uh uh [10:50] People in Iran are not sitting idly by. [10:52] We know that the financial collapse [10:53] there is affecting the population. [10:56] And when they smell weakness from their [10:58] leaders, they will you know, I'm more [11:01] optimistic now about the people of Iran [11:02] rising up. [11:05] But, there's also this financial piece. [11:07] He talked about the things that Scott [11:09] Bessent is doing to squeeze the Iranian [11:12] regime about how the Americans are now [11:14] saying that they're going to send the 24 [11:16] 25 billion dollars of [11:18] of seized assets of frozen assets to [11:21] Arab countries to Gulf states who have [11:23] been damaged by Iran to compensate for [11:25] their damages. He suggests that maybe [11:27] Israel be part of that. I don't think [11:28] so. First of all, Israel doesn't need [11:29] the money. [11:30] Uh and it would also be much more [11:32] complicated politically in the Middle [11:33] East for us for that money to go to [11:35] Israel. [11:36] Uh, I think it'd be better off not. [11:38] In any event, [11:40] I think that that's one of the thing [11:42] that [11:44] that [11:45] threat or [11:48] statement by Scott Bessent by the by the [11:50] Treasury Secretary that the US is going [11:51] to use the frozen Iranian assets to [11:53] compen- assets to compensate [11:56] the countries that have been damaged by [11:57] the Iranian aggression, [11:59] I think it's part of the whole picture [12:01] that we're seeing over the last couple [12:02] days. Cuz what have we What have we [12:03] seen? [12:04] We've seen some things revealed that [12:06] really show how much Iran is really much [12:11] more on the verge of collapse than we [12:13] thought. Let's put a few things [12:14] together. The Strait of Hormuz. [12:17] Victor Davis Hanson points out that Iran [12:19] is losing their ability to keep the [12:21] straits closed. So, we've talked about [12:23] that over the last couple weeks, I've [12:24] pointed out that in all of these little [12:25] skirmishes that have been happening [12:28] uh, [12:29] in the Strait of Hormuz, the Americans [12:31] have been progressively degrading the [12:34] Iranian ability to keep the straits [12:36] closed. So, with every passing day, [12:38] there's less mines in the water, the [12:40] Americans are hitting those radar [12:41] installations, they're hitting the [12:43] rocket launch sites, they're hitting the [12:45] drone launch sites. They are degrading [12:47] So, with every passing day, Iran's [12:49] ability to keep the straits closed [12:50] shrinks, America's control over it [12:53] grows, America's [12:55] Iran's abilities get weaker and weaker, [12:57] the Iranian people are rising up more [12:59] and more. We know also, and I I [13:00] discussed this in a few videos over the [13:02] last couple weeks, that Iran is [13:04] panicking over money. They just want [13:05] money. Like, you remember in the [13:07] negotiations, [13:09] they've been saying that that the [13:10] precondition for moving forward is is is [13:13] we need to see money up front, and [13:15] Americans are saying, "No, we're not [13:16] going to give you money until we see [13:17] some action." [13:18] They're desperate for money. [13:20] This threat to to [13:22] forget about unfreezing their assets, to [13:24] give them to the countries that they [13:25] attacked, must be sending them into an [13:27] absolute panic. [13:29] But there's also this big announcement [13:30] that Trump made yesterday, which [13:32] I I I think is is even bigger than we [13:34] realize. [13:36] Where Trump in that press in that press [13:38] avail in the in the Oval Office [13:40] yesterday said that that over 100 [13:42] million barrels of oil have been taken [13:45] out. [13:46] Now, he didn't say whose oil it was. It [13:50] maybe he was implying that it was [13:51] Iranian oil that the Americans have [13:52] seized, but it says that they took over [13:54] 100 million barrels of crude oil out of [13:56] the Strait of Hormuz in a secret [13:57] mission. More than 200 commercial ships [13:59] have safely traveled through the strait. [14:02] That's what Trump wrote on Truth Social. [14:05] And [14:06] so [14:07] so you put that [14:10] if that is Iranian oil, and again, I [14:12] don't know whose oil it is, [14:14] but if he's talking about having taken [14:15] Iranian oil out of there, [14:18] or even if it's not Iranian oil, and [14:19] he's just showing that they're getting [14:21] around this this Iranian closure of the [14:24] Straits of Hormuz, [14:25] that they're getting around it. I think [14:27] it might actually be Iranian oil. [14:29] Uh because here you have the other big [14:31] story from today, and I think it's all [14:33] part of the same messaging that Trump is [14:35] doing. Trump threatens to seize Kharg [14:37] Island and other Iran oil [14:39] infrastructure. [14:41] President Donald Trump on Thursday, [14:42] that's today, threatened to seize Iran's [14:44] oil infrastructure, including its main [14:46] export terminal Kharg Island, in the not [14:48] too distant future. [14:50] Trump said in a Truth Social post that [14:51] the US military will attack Iran very [14:54] hard Thursday night after completing a [14:56] round of air strikes on Wednesday. Those [14:57] were later called off. We'll get to [14:59] that. [15:00] Um we'll get to that in a few minutes. [15:02] The president threatened to take total [15:03] control of Iran's oil and gas markets as [15:06] the US did in Venezuela earlier this [15:08] year. Hours later, Trump canceled the [15:10] threatened air strikes, citing [15:12] discussions with the Islamic Republic, [15:13] sending oil prices lower. There you go. [15:15] Kharg Island is Iran's main oil export [15:18] terminal, accounting for about 90% of [15:21] its crude shipments before the war, the [15:22] US Navy has already choked off most of [15:25] Iran's exports through a blockade [15:26] against the country's ports and vessels. [15:29] The US launched strikes against military [15:30] targets on Kharg Island earlier in the [15:32] war, but has held back from deploying [15:34] ground troops to seize Iran's oil and [15:36] gas infrastructure. There's Kharg [15:38] Island. [15:40] Shortly after making those threats, [15:41] Trump told Fox News that he's not sure [15:43] America has the stomach to take Kharg, [15:45] meaning that taking Kharg Island would [15:47] require troops on the ground, and that [15:49] means that [15:50] ground invasion very unpopular for [15:53] America. The US is continuing to hold [15:55] talks with Iran, the president said. I [15:56] think they'd like to see us come home. [16:00] Meaning the American people, but we did [16:02] it with Venezuela, Trump told Fox on a [16:04] live call. Venezuela's worked out great [16:06] for everybody. [16:07] The president said he would prefer not [16:09] to bomb Iran's power plants when asked [16:11] by Fox. [16:12] The Trump administration has basically [16:14] taken control of Venezuela's oil exports [16:17] since ousting Maduro. [16:20] Venezuela's oil shipments are sent to [16:21] the US Gulf Coast, where it's refined. [16:24] Trump has escalated military pressure on [16:26] Iran this week as he has grown [16:28] frustrated with Tehran for not quickly [16:30] agreeing to a deal to reopen the strait [16:31] and abandon its nuclear program. [16:37] All right. [16:40] Here's what I'm seeing in this. [16:42] Here's what I'm seeing here. [16:48] For the last few weeks, for most of the [16:49] ceasefire we've been hearing about [16:52] the nuclear issue [16:54] and the Straits of Hormuz. [16:57] Iran's been saying we need money, we [16:59] need money, we need money. [17:01] And what do we see in the last 24 hours, [17:04] 48 hours? What do we see? [17:07] Trump revealing that [17:10] a massive amount of oil, 100 What is it? [17:13] 100 million barrels of oil? 100 million [17:15] barrels of oil have been [17:17] have been taken out by America from the [17:19] Strait of Hormuz. [17:22] And [17:24] and then Trump saying he's going to [17:25] seize Kharg Island. [17:27] And Scott Bessent announcing that [17:29] they're going to send the 24 or 25 [17:32] billion dollars of frozen assets, [17:34] they're going to give it away to other [17:35] people. [17:37] These are all connected. These are all [17:39] the same message. [17:41] This is a tremendous pressure point on [17:43] the Iranians. [17:45] Basically saying to them, you think that [17:47] we're going to give you some concession [17:49] to negotiate with you, that we're going [17:51] to give you some confidence building [17:52] measure, that we're going to release [17:53] funds to you, that we're going to allow [17:55] you to sell oil, we're going to lift [17:57] sanctions. It's just the opposite. We've [17:59] been taking oil the whole time. [18:02] We're going to take all of it. We're [18:04] going to take Kharg Island. And And by [18:06] the way, that money, we're giving it [18:07] away to other people. [18:10] It's an incredible tactic. [18:13] And the Iranians are panicking. [18:16] There's more There's, you know, the news [18:18] today that Trump is saying that, you [18:19] know, he called off the strikes because [18:20] now it looks like they're really ready [18:22] to sign. Maybe they are, maybe they [18:23] aren't. They're probably just stringing [18:24] them along. There's also a news report [18:26] that I've only seen in Hebrew. Let me [18:28] pull it up here. [18:30] >> [snorts] [18:30] >> Um [18:34] Here, check out this news item. I only [18:36] saw it in Hebrew, so I'm going to I'm [18:37] going to translate it for you. [18:39] Um [18:40] Al Hadath network [18:43] the Saudi Al Al Saudi network called Al [18:45] Hadath [18:47] reported that there was supposed to be a [18:49] meeting [18:52] of Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, [18:56] and Turkey [18:58] in order to plan their intermediary [19:03] their being intermediaries in the uh [19:07] in in the Iran-United States situation. [19:09] Now, look Look this collection of [19:10] countries. Pakistan, Qatar, [19:13] Turkey, Egypt's just they're like joined [19:16] at the hip with Turkey these days. [19:18] And the Saudis have thrown in their lot [19:20] with them. These are all the countries [19:21] who are these people? Who are these [19:23] countries? These are all the countries [19:24] that are trying to keep [19:26] the Iranian regime from falling. [19:29] So they're they obviously got involved [19:30] here as well. Read between the lines. [19:33] They're involved in this, especially [19:35] because the announcement of Trump [19:37] uh calling off the strikes. Look at [19:39] this. [19:40] The announcement says the deal was [19:41] approved both in concept and great [19:43] detail by all involved parties including [19:45] the US, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Emirates, [19:47] Qatar, and multiple others, Trump wrote. [19:49] US President Donald Trump announced that [19:51] he had canceled the scheduled strikes [19:53] because there was a deal that was [19:55] approved both in concept and detail by [19:57] all involved including Israel. Included [19:59] Israel on here. [20:00] And you know, the other [20:02] these other Arab countries. [20:07] But Israeli sources told Channel 12 that [20:09] Israel [20:10] Israel's kind of denying that they agree [20:12] to anything. [20:13] At least that's what a source told [20:15] Channel 12. [20:16] Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was [20:18] set to speak with Trump on Thursday, [20:20] today, on Thursday night. In comments to [20:23] the press, Trump said, "I just spoke to [20:24] Bibi." [20:26] Trump's statement took Netanyahu by [20:27] surprise according to CNN. [20:31] And [20:34] meanwhile, the Tasnim news agency, [20:36] that's the IRGC [20:38] news agency, denies it. They say that [20:40] Trump has announced an imminent deal 38 [20:42] times in the last 2 months and that [20:44] until Iran announces an agreement, it [20:47] should be considered that there is no [20:48] agreement. [20:49] Okay. [20:51] And that talks about how Qatar's getting [20:52] involved. So I I think that what's [20:55] happening here is that [20:57] there's this new play that Trump is [20:59] making. [21:01] Kharg Island, [21:02] the announcement about the 100 million [21:04] barrels that have been taken out, [21:07] the announcement of what they're going [21:08] to do with the assets. [21:10] And meanwhile, we're also getting news [21:12] of the unrest in the streets, [21:15] the students rising up. [21:18] The Iranians haven't been able to pay [21:19] their people. [21:21] The kinetic activity that we've seen [21:23] this week has all degraded Iran. [21:26] It's not tit-for-tat. It's It tries to [21:29] be tit-for-tat, but we should but our [21:31] side, meaning America's allies, Israel, [21:33] shoots down pretty much every missile [21:35] that's fired. 100% of the missiles fired [21:38] at Israel the other day were shot down. [21:41] Um and similar number everywhere else. [21:44] And yet [21:46] every [21:47] every attack on Iran is successful. They [21:48] have no air defenses. So, America's [21:51] taking out their radar, taking out their [21:52] rocket launchers, degrading their [21:54] abilities. Now, Trump is talking about [21:55] taking Kharg Island away from them, [21:57] which means that they won't even have [21:58] any They won't even have any money or [22:00] revenue sources. [22:03] Meanwhile, just for good measure, this [22:05] is from Iranian state media, from IRNA. [22:08] If US attacks Kharg, Iran's response [22:10] will go down in history. They're [22:11] panicking [22:13] over attack on Kharg Island. [22:16] Ebrahim Azizi made these remarks on [22:17] Thursday during a ceremony commemorating [22:20] Lieutenant General Bagheri, the late [22:21] chairman of the Chiefs of Staff of the [22:22] Armed Forces, as well as his wife and [22:25] daughter who were assassinated on June [22:27] 13th. That's the first day of the 12-day [22:29] war. [22:30] Azizi said that Donald Trump, the [22:32] delusional president of the United [22:33] States, has frequently threatened Iran. [22:36] He added that there's no doubt that the [22:37] that the Islamic regime of Iran will [22:39] deliver a decisive, crushing, painful [22:42] response to any attack regarding Kharg [22:44] Island. He noted that the Iranian Armed [22:46] Forces stationed there remain in a state [22:48] of high readiness. He further stated He [22:50] further said that the US-Israeli war of [22:52] aggression against Iran [22:55] that during that more than 9,000 [22:57] American personnel fled the Persian Gulf [22:59] and over 14 American bases were [23:00] destroyed. [23:02] Describing Describing the events as [23:04] humiliating for the United States. Okay, [23:05] that's obviously nonsense. [23:08] But they're they're panicked. [23:11] They're panicked about Kharg Island. [23:12] They're panicked about the money. [23:15] And I think that what Victor Davis [23:16] Hanson is saying is correct. Now, that [23:18] said, he's also correct that this should [23:20] have happened way sooner. [23:22] And the [23:25] the approach of the midterms is not [23:26] helping things. Trump has definitely [23:28] weakened his position by going down this [23:30] route of negotiations. [23:33] And now calling off the strike saying a [23:34] deal might be imminent. There will be no [23:36] deal. The Iranians are not going to make [23:38] a deal. They're not going to hand over [23:39] their enriched uranium. They're not [23:41] going to make a deal. They're just going [23:42] to string along and buy for more time. [23:44] We're going to get back into the same [23:46] loop again, and that's where I start [23:47] getting negative. [23:50] But the point here is [23:52] that even if things just stay the way [23:55] they are, even if we don't go back to [23:56] connect activity, if this blockade [23:58] continues, [23:59] if these financial these this financial [24:02] warfare, this this economic warfare that [24:05] Scott Bessent is leading, if this [24:06] continues, if the people in the streets [24:08] of of of Iran continue to rise up more, [24:12] if there's more little skirmishes where [24:14] the Americans continue to degrade Iran's [24:17] capability to keep the Strait of Hormuz [24:19] closed, if they keep moving oil out of [24:22] the Gulf, [24:23] all of this is putting greater and [24:25] greater pressure on the Iranians, [24:27] and we could see the regime collapsing [24:30] regardless of what the Qataris and the [24:32] Saudis and all of them want. But it [24:34] should be noted that what do the Qataris [24:36] want? Look at this. [24:39] The Qataris want [24:41] to free up Iranian assets. What do What [24:43] do it's in here? [24:45] Um Here, look at this. [24:49] Negotiations between the US and Iran [24:51] progressed late Wednesday night as [24:52] Qatari envoy [24:54] Ali Al Thawadi and the Iranian foreign [24:56] minister [24:57] Abbas Araqchi work to resolve key [24:59] issues. [25:01] The issues included the mechanism for [25:02] releasing Iranian frozen assets. [25:06] It's the first thing. It's always the [25:07] number one item on the agenda and the [25:08] Qataris are more than happy to try to [25:10] help them. So, that's the state of play [25:12] right now is you have these, you know, [25:14] the Qataris, the Turks, Pakistanis, who [25:17] are really working hard to maneuver this [25:20] into a [25:21] in such a way that the regime remains in [25:24] power, but everything that Trump is [25:26] doing [25:28] is just tightening the noose around [25:29] their neck. [25:30] So, I'm feeling good about where things [25:32] are going. [25:33] Uh [25:33] again, I don't think it was a good idea [25:36] to stop to stop the kinetic action when [25:38] it happened. I don't think it's a good [25:40] idea to [25:41] to go into these negotiations cuz [25:42] they're never going to go anywhere. I [25:44] don't know if Trump really believes [25:45] there's going to be a deal or if he just [25:47] thinks that this is that what he's doing [25:48] now is going to eventually bring down [25:50] the regime anyway and it's a good way to [25:53] keep oil prices under control. [25:56] Uh but any way you slice it, I think [25:57] we're in a good position and that's [26:00] There you go. I'm being positive today. [26:03] All right. God bless you. Thanks for [26:04] watching.
