Transcript [00:00] Hey everybody. So, I want to react to a [00:01] clip from Sean Hannity's show last [00:03] night. He was interviewing Victor Davis [00:05] Hanson about the US Iran memorandum of [00:08] understanding, what it means, whether it [00:10] will hold, what comes next. [00:12] And Victor Davis Hanson is, of course, [00:14] one of the smartest analysts out there [00:15] and he makes some excellent points, but [00:17] but there are a few places where I would [00:19] like to stop, push back a little bit, [00:22] maybe add some things, add some context [00:25] that I think might be getting [00:27] missed in the shuffle here. So, let's [00:29] get right to it. [00:31] Here is Victor Davis Hanson. [00:33] >> So, there's a lot of talk and analysis [00:35] about the memorandum versus the words of [00:37] Donald Trump that he'll rain down hell [00:39] on them if, in fact, the very things he [00:41] has been articulating all throughout [00:43] this conflict are not fulfilled at the [00:46] end of this deal. He will be the [00:48] ultimate decider here. [00:50] Um I put way more stock in what the [00:52] president is saying himself and what the [00:55] president has outlined himself and the [00:57] understanding that they have gone way [01:00] deeper than that document that was [01:02] released today, except they're not [01:04] telling people yet. [01:08] Yeah, I think the critical issue is [01:10] uh we should expect, given their history [01:13] of [01:14] untruth, lying, and breaking agreements, [01:18] and I think they will try to do that. [01:20] What are we going to do? And I think [01:21] Donald Trump has a record that he'll hit [01:22] them hard. So, the two the two chief [01:25] issues I'm not so worried about. I think [01:28] we know where the uh enriched uranium [01:30] is, it's sealed. We have great [01:32] intelligence. We can bomb it, bomb it, [01:34] bomb it. We can hit uh more of their [01:36] industrial complexes if they cheat. And [01:39] I they will open the Strait of Hormuz [01:41] because they're just about broke. The [01:42] other things are known unknowns. We [01:45] don't [01:46] uh it's going to be more difficult to [01:48] ensure they're not giving money to the [01:50] Hezbollah and who Houth the Houthis and [01:53] Hamas. That's more murky [01:56] >> That's more murky. It certainly is more [01:59] murky. This is one of the things I [02:01] wanted to comment on here. [02:04] VDA you know, Victor Davis Hanson just [02:05] said the most important thing in the [02:07] entire clip. [02:08] Right? [02:10] It's more murky. How are they going to [02:11] stop that? [02:12] The understatement of the year. Let me [02:14] translate what he just said to plain [02:15] language. The nuclear file, yes, we can [02:18] verify that and there's going to be a [02:19] lot of talk about verification methods [02:21] and how we do that and I did a video [02:23] earlier where I played a clip of Jack [02:25] Keane talking about that. What does [02:26] verification look like? What the [02:28] inspections and access [02:31] But the proxy network, the Hezbollah, [02:34] Hamas, the Houthis, Islamic Jihad [02:39] That's Iran's real strategic weapon. And [02:41] that's the infrastructure that [02:44] carried out October 7th. That's the [02:45] network that's been firing rockets at [02:47] northern Israel throughout this year. [02:50] It's also a worldwide network, the [02:51] proxies. [02:52] And there's nothing I want to be very [02:54] clear. Nothing in this 14-point MOU that [02:57] addresses any of that. [02:59] Not a word about Hezbollah except that [03:00] Israel can't attack them anymore. [03:03] Not a word about the Houthis. Not a word [03:04] about Hamas. Nothing not mentioned. And [03:06] here's what makes this even more [03:07] alarming. [03:09] The Hezbollah Israel conflict did not [03:11] stop when the MOU was signed. It's [03:13] continuing right now. Hezbollah fired [03:15] rocket you know, drones at Israeli [03:17] positions last night. To today. [03:20] They're still firing at Israeli [03:21] positions. Israel's still striking them [03:23] and Israel's still striking back. [03:25] Iran's foreign minister has the audacity [03:27] to say that Israel's violating this [03:31] by striking Hezbollah even though Israel [03:33] was not a party to the agreement and [03:34] never signed it. [03:36] Watch for that. That's going to happen [03:37] every day now. [03:39] So Iran gets to use this MOU as a shield [03:42] for its proxy [03:44] and the proxy keeps attacking Israel. [03:47] So Victor Davis Hanson calls it murky if [03:49] we're going to be able to stop them or [03:51] monitor their funding of their proxies. [03:53] I call it a gaping hole in the deal [03:56] that Israel is going to have to be [03:58] living with [03:59] for a long time. [04:02] Let's just say it. That's the way it is. [04:03] >> And we don't know what they're going to [04:05] do in Lebanon. And then of course [04:08] we don't know what's going on in Iran [04:10] because this is the first real air war. [04:11] We don't have boots on the ground. We [04:13] don't have embeds, but we will learn [04:14] very shortly and we're going to get an [04:17] idea of just how much damage was done. I [04:19] think it might have been a half a [04:20] trillion dollars or more in the nuclear [04:23] military industrial complex. We don't [04:25] know the mood of the people. Well, are [04:27] they going to come out and say to their [04:29] own government, you mean we lost [04:31] everything we had and now you're you [04:34] could have done this peacefully. Instead [04:36] you you know, you acted so tough, you [04:39] were humiliated, and now we're broke and [04:42] destitute, and you all you had to do was [04:45] agree in the first place. And then we [04:46] don't know how the how the government [04:48] will react to that. There could be a [04:49] widespread uprising. We don't know what [04:51] we're going to do if they try to kill [04:53] another 40,000 people. So the main [04:56] denominator though that has to be [04:58] ironclad is we have to react [05:01] disproportionately [05:02] anytime they break the agreement. And I [05:05] I'm afraid I don't want them to. I hope [05:07] they don't. But given their history, I [05:09] think they'll try Donald Trump at least [05:11] once. And I think he'll he'll hit them [05:13] very hard, and then things will settle [05:16] down. But they have no record of ever [05:18] telling the truth. The other thing very [05:21] there's some people talking about you [05:23] know, that Iran is going to enter the [05:24] family of nations again. I wish that [05:26] were true, but that's only going to [05:27] happen if there's a different [05:28] government. And you know, the Berlin [05:30] Wall fell and it took the Soviets 2 [05:32] years to fall. So this could be [05:35] something like that, but we don't know [05:37] what's going to happen in the few in the [05:39] next few months as the people come out, [05:41] assess the damage to their country, and [05:43] hold their government responsible. [05:47] >> Very, very interesting astute points [05:49] from Victor Davis Hanson. [05:51] Very interesting. [05:54] Victor Davis Hanson is raising the most [05:56] important question that relates to the [05:58] post-war period whenever it comes. [06:02] Maybe we're in it. [06:06] He doesn't really explain what he means [06:07] that well. Let me Let me go deeper. [06:09] He's talking about the possibility that [06:11] the Iranian people will look at the [06:13] rubble of what the regime brought down [06:15] on them and decide that they've had [06:16] enough. [06:17] And he brings He and he has this Berlin [06:19] Wall analogy, right? The Soviet collapse [06:21] analogy. Popular uprising after the [06:24] regime is weakened. So, it's actually a [06:25] post-war situation that the regime [06:28] change doesn't happen during the war. It [06:30] happens later. [06:32] So, I want to say two things about this. [06:34] First, I hope he's right. I've said many [06:36] times [06:37] that the Iranian people are not the [06:38] Iranian regime. They are educated. They [06:40] are secular. They are pro-Western. [06:42] They've been living under the boot of [06:44] these mullahs for 47 years. If this war [06:46] cracked the regime's legitimacy badly [06:48] enough, if the Iranian street looks at [06:51] half a trillion dollars in damage and [06:53] says, "You did this to us for what?" [06:57] There's a genuine possibility that that [06:59] happens and it would be the best [07:00] possible outcome of this entire thing. [07:03] I mean, let's not think Let's not think [07:05] so narrowly that like, "Oh, when the war [07:07] stops, that's it. There's no more chance [07:08] for regime change." Doesn't work that [07:10] way. [07:12] But, and this is where I have to be [07:14] blunt. [07:16] The memorandum of understanding that was [07:17] just signed has formally closed the door [07:19] on American support for that outcome. [07:23] That's the key here. [07:26] That's the sad part. [07:28] They're They're negotiating with the [07:30] regime. With the people who slaughtered [07:33] and oppressed the Iranian people. [07:35] Paragraph two of this memorandum states [07:37] that the US and Iran undertake to [07:39] respect each other's sovereignty and [07:41] territorial integrity and to refrain [07:43] from interfering in each other's [07:45] internal affairs. That is a call I'll [07:48] tell you what that is. In terms of war [07:50] objectives and what each side wants, [07:52] that's that's Iran making the United [07:54] States commit that they're not going to [07:56] pursue regime change. [07:58] It's not just that the Americans haven't [08:00] decided if they really want it. We'll [08:02] get into that more a little bit later in [08:04] this interview. [08:06] But the United States just signed a [08:07] document promising not to interfere in [08:09] Iran's internal affairs. [08:11] Does that mean that they can't give any [08:13] help whatsoever to the people who are [08:15] who are in the streets protesting? [08:17] If that if it comes to that, they [08:19] they're not allowed to step in and [08:20] assist them? [08:21] That means that they can't give them air [08:23] cover if the Basij and the IRGC start [08:25] slaughtering them? They can't interfere [08:27] in Iran's internal affairs? [08:30] And Trump said publicly at the G7 that [08:31] quote he never cared about regime change [08:33] anyway. [08:35] So if the Iranian people do rise up and [08:36] God willing they will, they'll be doing [08:38] it without American backing. Against a [08:40] regime that just pocketed $300 in [08:43] reconstruction funds and sanction [08:45] relief. [08:46] Victor Davis Hanson's Berlin Wall [08:47] scenario is possible. [08:51] But America just signed away its ability [08:53] it it's I mean it just committed not to [08:56] help make it happen. [08:58] That's a strategic decision that has [08:59] consequences that will outlast this. [09:02] It'll outlast the administration. No [09:04] one's raising this issue. I think this [09:06] is a big deal. [09:07] All right, let's finish up. There's [09:09] a little bit more of this interview [09:11] we're going to watch. One more segment [09:13] of it. [09:14] >> And that'll be very interesting uh to [09:16] see what they do. [09:18] And we'll learn about it. They'll be [09:19] reporting from the ground for the first [09:21] time in four or five months. [09:23] >> With the confidence that they will never [09:25] have a nuclear weapon and with the [09:26] confidence let's say assume for the sake [09:29] of argument that the straight gets open. [09:31] Although you do have the southern lane [09:33] that has been open and we've been taking [09:34] out millions of barrels a day from [09:37] there. [09:38] Uh assuming those two things take place, [09:40] Victor Davis Hanson, [09:42] um that means we have the nuclear [09:44] equation under control, which has always [09:46] been the president's main goal. It's [09:48] never been about regime change, although [09:50] some seem to want to argue it was, it [09:53] never was. [09:54] Um we also have an elect [09:57] >> It never was. [10:02] Sean Hannity just told us, and I'm [10:03] quoting him directly, that it's never [10:05] been about regime change. [10:08] Although some seem to want to argue that [10:09] it was, it never was. I want to play you [10:11] something. You've probably seen it if [10:12] you watch my channel. [10:14] This is President Trump [10:15] on February 28th, [10:18] the night that he announced [10:20] the beginning of the war. [10:23] That night, [10:25] he announced the beginning of the war. [10:26] This is the end of that speech. He gave [10:28] an 8-minute speech. We're going to watch [10:29] the last minute of it. [10:32] >> Finally, to the great, proud people of [10:34] Iran, I say tonight that the hour of [10:37] your freedom is at hand. [10:39] Stay sheltered. Don't leave your home. [10:41] It's very dangerous outside. Bombs will [10:44] be dropping everywhere. [10:45] When we are finished, take over your [10:47] government. It will be yours to take. [10:50] This will be probably your only chance [10:54] for generations. [10:56] For many years, you have asked for [10:57] America's help, but you never got it. No [11:00] president was willing to do what I am [11:03] willing to do tonight. [11:05] Now you have a president who is giving [11:07] you what you want. So, let's see how you [11:09] respond. America is backing you with [11:12] overwhelming strength and devastating [11:15] force. Now is the time to seize control [11:18] of your destiny and to unleash the [11:20] prosperous and glorious future that is [11:23] close within your reach. This is the [11:26] moment for action. Do not let it pass. [11:29] May God bless the brave men and women. [11:34] >> Okay. [11:36] America's got your backs. We're going to [11:38] give you the support you need. [11:41] See that? [11:43] America's got your back. [11:46] You're going to be able to take over [11:47] your government. Let's see how you [11:49] respond. But, shelter in place for a [11:51] while. Stay inside. Don't go into the [11:53] streets yet because we're still bombing. [11:55] The time when the time is right, it'll [11:56] be time to come out and then you start [11:58] negotiating [11:59] with the regime. [12:02] I get so angry when I watch that. The [12:04] hour of your freedom is at hand. When [12:06] we're finished, take over your [12:07] government. It'll be yours to take. [12:10] This will probably be your only chance [12:11] for generations. Now, you have a [12:12] president who's giving you what you [12:14] want. Sean, [12:15] don't tell me that it was never about [12:17] regime change. [12:18] That is President Trump the night he [12:20] launched the war, explicitly calling on [12:22] the Iranian people to overthrow their [12:23] government. Right before that, in that [12:25] same speech, he calls on the IRGC, the [12:28] Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, to [12:30] lay down their weapons or face certain [12:31] death. He was calling for regime change. [12:33] That's the regime. The IRGC is the [12:35] regime. [12:37] It's the textbook definition of regime [12:39] change. Not that the US is going to go [12:40] in and impose a regime, but that they're [12:41] going to bring it down. That's what he [12:42] said. He said he'd give them cover. [12:45] We have your back. [12:47] They can't rise up if the regime still [12:48] has all the weapons and the US is [12:50] negotiating with them. [12:53] You can argue about whether this was a [12:55] primary military objective. Fine. But, [12:57] to sit on TV [12:59] 3 and 1/2 months later and say it was [13:01] never regime change, it's just not [13:03] honest. I know you're covering for [13:04] President Trump, but that's just not [13:06] honest. [13:07] You're managing the narrative. [13:09] And the Iranian people who Trump told [13:11] that night, "The hour of your freedom is [13:12] at hand," deserve better than that. [13:14] Because right now, that regime is still [13:16] standing, collecting a $300 billion [13:20] reconstruction fund, and the hour of [13:22] their freedom [13:23] looks a lot further away than it did on [13:25] February 28th. [13:28] Listen, there's a lot going on now. [13:30] There's a lot wrong with this deal. [13:33] I think that point that Victor Davis [13:35] Hanson brought up about how the like the [13:37] proxy network is just not mentioned here [13:39] and there's no way there's no we're [13:41] talking about monitoring with the [13:42] nuclear. How about how about the proxy [13:44] network? It's not even in the deal. It's [13:46] not even part of the negotiation. They [13:47] won't even be discussing it for the next [13:49] 60 days. [13:52] It's going to be interesting, folks. [13:54] It's going to be really, really [13:55] interesting. [13:57] And the whole Lebanon situation, of [13:58] course. [13:59] Who knows how that's going to how that's [14:01] going to end up [14:02] blowing this thing up. Again, I've been [14:04] making a prediction. I'll say it again [14:05] here. [14:06] That [14:07] the Iranians will continue to to poke [14:09] the Israelis with Hezbollah firing at [14:11] them so that when Israel responds, [14:13] Israel will get blamed or restrained by [14:15] the United States, [14:17] which will be a win for Iran. [14:19] Watch that dynamic unfold. [14:21] Please you know, please drop me a [14:22] comment. Let me know what you think. Let [14:24] me know if you disagree with me. [14:26] I read a lot of the comments. I really [14:27] try to. [14:28] I really appreciate them all. Thank you. [14:31] Thanks for watching. God bless.
