Transcript [00:00] Hey everyone. So, I was watching a clip [00:02] of Victor Davis Hanson in which he was [00:04] talking about the Iran war and he [00:06] discussed two interesting aspects of it. [00:09] He raised two interesting points. One of [00:10] them was about the United Arab Emirates [00:13] and the Saudis [00:15] recently carrying out some attacks [00:17] against Iran and where where they fit in [00:19] right now. [00:21] And then he got into the whole issue of [00:23] why [00:24] uh we're getting this militant talk, [00:27] this tough talk out of the Iranians on [00:29] their side and he had an interesting [00:31] theory about it. So, I want to talk [00:32] about those two issues. I'm going to [00:33] play you [00:34] uh this clip and I'm going to stop it at [00:36] a few points and comment. So, let's take [00:38] a look. [00:40] But uh this week the two Middle Eastern [00:43] countries have attacked Iran or sent [00:46] bombing missions in Saudi Arabia and the [00:49] UAE. This almost sounds like a pile-on [00:51] of dogs after the the enemy is down. Uh [00:56] Trump has uh [00:58] uh [00:58] said he's going to get a deal or he's [01:00] going to attack and since the Iranians [01:03] are not good at bringing in deals, uh [01:06] everybody has the feeling you get out in [01:09] the presses that there's an imminent [01:11] attack coming along. And then finally, [01:13] the last thing about the war is that [01:15] it's um [01:17] it's come out, not that anybody was [01:19] hiding it, but the expense of the war [01:21] was highlighted this week and it's $29 [01:24] billion so far and I was wondering your [01:28] idea on any of those three things. [01:31] Well, given we spent a trillion dollars [01:34] plus in Iraq and maybe more in [01:36] Afghanistan, and we didn't get the [01:39] desired desired results and Joe Biden [01:41] left $50 billion in equipment, [01:44] the idea that you would spend less than [01:46] $30 billion and with a chance to [01:47] overthrow the worst government in the [01:49] world that's caused most of [01:51] the problems we've had in the Middle [01:53] East in general and killed a lot of [01:55] Americans, it's a bargain [01:57] if it works. [01:59] And I think it will. [02:00] You know, the problem with this argument [02:02] I'll just say is that the people who are [02:04] upset about the current Iran war and [02:07] they and if they be upset about the $30 [02:10] number, it's not such a big number for [02:12] what they're doing. Because Victor Davis [02:13] Hanson is right. The problem with it is [02:14] that it doesn't convince anyone because [02:16] they were opposed to the Iraq and [02:18] Afghanistan wars also. They would say [02:19] that just because that was a colossal [02:21] waste of money doesn't mean they want to [02:22] waste money now. So again, there are [02:24] very good reasons why this war is a good [02:27] idea and it certainly is a bargain as he [02:29] said and in terms of the potential gains [02:33] economically from getting rid of the [02:35] Iranian regime, it's far outweighs this [02:37] minimal investment. But that's not the [02:40] way people who are complaining about the [02:42] war see it. Anyway, let's move on. Paul, [02:44] but [02:45] uh [02:46] when you look at the UAE and Qatar [02:50] and almost [02:51] excuse me, and Oman and Saudi and [02:54] Kuwait, [02:57] you're talking about 600 combat [02:59] aircraft. So when they kept pushing, [03:01] pushing, pushing the United States, if [03:03] you're going to come here, finish, [03:04] finish, finish, finish cuz we're getting [03:05] hit with 5,000 drones or missile. [03:08] You would have thought before now they [03:10] would have said, "Well, we're going to [03:11] pledge 100." They could have gone to the [03:13] United States. I guess they didn't want [03:15] to be bombing the same time Israel was. [03:18] Cuz that would be a domestic problem for [03:20] them. [03:21] But the point I'm making is we they [03:23] could have carved out a whole section [03:25] right across the Gulf and said, "This is [03:27] your responsibility. You have 600 [03:29] aircraft. They don't have any. They [03:31] don't have much go to it." They didn't [03:33] do anything. [03:34] And now they're sort of worried that [03:36] people have talked about that and they [03:38] want to come in [03:39] and say, "Well, we'll we'll help you [03:41] destroy them." But they haven't [03:43] committed the bulk of their forces. [03:47] Okay, I don't entirely [03:50] agree with this line of thinking where [03:52] he said that the reason that's [03:54] motivating the Saudis and the Emirates [03:56] to currently be attacking the Iranians [03:57] is that people are talking about the [03:59] fact that they didn't do anything. So, [04:00] it's kind of like a a face-saving move. [04:04] Now, he's absolutely right that joining [04:05] the war alongside Israel would have [04:07] caused them tremendous domestic [04:09] problems. [04:10] Uh and uh that speaks to the fact that [04:12] the populations, the popular opinion in [04:16] the street, even in a place like the [04:18] Emirates that is very that's been very [04:20] favorable to Israel, [04:21] is going to take much longer to change [04:23] if it's ever going to change. Um [04:26] especially in Saudi Arabia, very strong [04:28] anti-Israel sentiments within the [04:30] population. They just They need a whole [04:33] generation or two of reeducation to [04:34] change that. [04:36] Uh I interpret things a little bit [04:37] differently. I mean, he He's correct [04:39] when he says they could have carved out [04:40] a section of the Gulf and said, "This is [04:42] your job." [04:44] But, I don't think it's the Gulf. I [04:45] think I don't think I think that's the [04:46] wrong play. You see, [04:50] the Israelis and the Americans were [04:51] coordinating so carefully and so [04:54] extensively on all of the air strikes [04:56] and all of everything they were doing [04:58] uh to Iran that it doesn't make any [05:01] sense why they would want [05:04] the UAE and the Saudis to get involved [05:07] with their with air strikes of their own [05:08] with their own air forces. It doesn't [05:10] make any sense. I mean, think about how [05:11] delicate all of that coordination and [05:14] cooperation must have been. [05:16] And now, you're going to have some Saudi [05:17] or Emirati pilots coming in saying, [05:19] "Okay, you know, let's you you know, [05:20] we're with you. We want to join. We want [05:22] to be a part of this." And what are you [05:23] going to have them do? [05:25] It It would only make things more [05:26] complicated, and they don't have the [05:27] skill level [05:28] of the Israeli Air Force or the American [05:30] Air Force. [05:32] That said, he's correct that there are [05:35] other arenas [05:36] where they could have used their [05:38] military might. Specifically, I think [05:40] about the Houthis. The Houthis are over [05:43] on the other side. They're on the other [05:44] side of Saudi Arabia down at the Bab [05:46] al-Mandab Straits at the opening to the [05:47] Red Sea. [05:49] And that's where they that's where the [05:53] um [05:54] that's where they could have really used [05:55] the help. In other words, that's where [05:57] the Saudis and the Emiratis they could [05:59] turn their firepower on the Houthis [06:01] without getting in the way of what the [06:03] Americans and the US are doing in Iran. [06:06] That would have been a better move. So [06:07] but but the real question is why are [06:09] they attacking Iran now? And so he so [06:12] Victor Davis Hanson chalks it up to them [06:14] this kind of safe facing you know face [06:16] is saving move. [06:18] That could be, but I think that there's [06:20] a simpler explanation which is that [06:21] first of all there's no coordination [06:23] going on between the US and Israel right [06:25] now. So that that problem of disrupting [06:28] the delicate US Israel battle plan is [06:30] not an issue right now. [06:32] But also I think there's there's another [06:34] dynamic going on. Trump [06:37] you know Trump did not come [06:40] to the aid of the Saudis and Emiratis in [06:42] the last few weeks when the Iranians [06:44] started filing firing more drones and [06:46] missiles at them. They have very real [06:48] concerns [06:50] that if this regime if the Iranian [06:51] regime stays intact in any way [06:54] that they are going to be firing at the [06:58] oil assets [07:00] at the energy assets of the Saudis and [07:02] the Emiratis. They've already warned [07:04] that they'll do it. [07:06] And I think that they're flexing their [07:07] muscles now to show the the Iranians [07:10] that they're not just going to sit back [07:11] and let America make decisions about [07:13] their national security. They're going [07:15] to take matters into their own hands and [07:16] that they have firepower of their own. [07:19] Um they're very concerned about these [07:21] these short-range missiles that the [07:23] Iranians have right on the other side of [07:24] the Straits of Hormuz pointing at their [07:27] at their energy assets. Not just them, [07:29] also Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, the other [07:31] the other Gulf states, Oman. [07:34] Oman's less concerned cuz they have a [07:35] much better relationship with Iran. But [07:38] um [07:39] they're very concerned about this about [07:41] these short-range rockets to damage [07:42] their facilities that Iran has already [07:44] threatened that they will that they will [07:46] fire. So, I think I think there's [07:48] there's even though it's technically in [07:49] retaliation to these Iranian drone [07:51] attacks, I think there's something [07:52] preemptive about what the UAE and the [07:54] Saudis are doing. [07:56] Essentially, sending a message both to [07:58] the United States and to Iran that [08:00] they're not going to necessarily be [08:02] beholden only to the United States [08:04] battle plan. They have national security [08:06] interests of their own. Although, I [08:08] would suspect that once the Americans [08:10] get involved again, especially if it's [08:12] coordinated with the Israelis, that the [08:14] UAE and Saudi Arabia will probably take [08:15] a step back. So, that's my take on this [08:18] on this point that that he makes here. [08:21] But, that's the first thing and [08:24] the second [08:26] behind all of this tension, so we had 32 [08:28] days of war and now we've almost had 40 [08:31] days of merches merchandising, you know, [08:34] haggling. [08:35] I wish we had have just finished it [08:37] because you can't trust these people, [08:38] you can't talk to them. [08:40] If we had have spent 40 days and just [08:43] taken out all of their dual-use [08:46] I don't [snorts] know, their bridges, [08:48] all their loading facilities on Kharg [08:49] Island and that corridor [08:52] um across from Kharg Island and the [08:54] corridor across from the strait and just [08:59] just devastated it. [09:01] Then I think we'd be in a lot better [09:02] position. [09:04] But, what's happening now is [09:06] I think that these negotiations are [09:08] going on and we are saying we don't [09:11] really know who's in control, but more [09:13] importantly, there must be people in [09:17] Iran who are talking in a bellicose [09:19] fashion [09:21] and want us to bomb. Uh that sounds [09:24] crazy, but I have a feeling they know [09:27] that if we go back to war [09:30] they have given us [09:32] back channels that we will represent we [09:36] we don't need to have a democracy. You [09:38] don't need to let the people, you can [09:39] use us and we won't use terrorism [09:42] anymore. We won't get a bomb, but you [09:44] but we can't say that. We have to sound [09:46] bellicose or they're going to kill us. [09:48] But they're going to be sound bellicose [09:50] in hopes we do something and target the [09:53] Islamic [09:55] uh Revolutionary Guard Corps and the [09:57] Theocrats and some members of the [09:59] military. [10:01] So, I think that's what's going on. [10:02] There's they're all playing these games [10:04] with these each other to sound who can [10:06] sound the toughest to protect themselves [10:08] from each other. [10:10] And then they're all trying to send in [10:11] backchannel signals that if you do take [10:13] out the hardliners, we're here to help. [10:17] But [10:18] So, this is an interesting theory. [10:20] Um [10:21] Let me just sum up his theory first. His [10:23] theory is that the tough talk that we're [10:26] seeing and I've showed it to you if you [10:28] watch this channel, we've you know, we [10:29] regularly take a look at Iranian regime [10:32] media and we see all this tough talk [10:34] about, you know, that America's going to [10:35] pay and we're going to war. There's a [10:37] headline today in WANA about how they're [10:40] training citizens to use AK-47s and [10:42] they're running instructional videos on [10:45] TV so that everyone can join the fight [10:47] when America invades. It's very militant [10:51] talk and they're and they're they're, [10:54] you know, driving this hard line. And [10:56] what he's saying here is that the reason [10:58] that they're doing all of this is [11:01] is kind of twofold that, you know, they [11:03] have to save face. They can't you know, [11:05] to each other. They can't appear to be [11:07] capitulating, but that also they [11:09] actually want the bombing to resume. And [11:11] this is the most interesting thing that [11:12] Victor Davis Hanson said. His theory [11:14] that they might actually want the [11:16] bombing to resume because these even [11:19] these hardliners [11:21] well, not the most hardliners, but even [11:23] those who are talking tough talk. He's [11:25] probably referring to people like [11:26] Pezeshkian and Araqchi who he he views [11:30] them as not in the same category as the [11:32] hardline IRGC guys. I think that that's [11:34] really cosmetic. Um and that they are [11:37] more closely aligned. But basically, [11:39] let's keep the point clear. His argument [11:42] is that there are people near the top of [11:44] the regime who are saying, "Listen, you [11:46] can work with us. We'll take over. [11:49] But we can't be doing that as a [11:50] capitulation [11:52] giving into your demands in a [11:53] negotiation. So, what they actually want [11:57] cuz they can't do that. They can't give [11:58] in. [11:59] So, the negotiations can't be the way [12:01] that we get to [12:03] If the goal is to get to a stable [12:05] government run by some of the [12:07] technocrats, some of these corrupt [12:10] regime technocrats who remain the what [12:12] we've called the Venezuela model that [12:14] Trump really wants. And that's what this [12:16] whole negotiation is about. He wants to [12:18] keep things from devolving into chaos [12:20] and work with some reasonable people [12:23] that he can that he can that he can get [12:26] to do his bidding who remain from the [12:29] regime so that the apparatus stays [12:31] intact enough that it prevents chaos, [12:33] but he has people to work with. And what [12:35] he what Victor Davis Hanson is signaling [12:37] here is that he believes that there are [12:39] people near the top who want the bombing [12:41] to resume because if there's more [12:44] bombing taking out more of the of the [12:46] clerics and the hardliners and the IRGC [12:48] and the Basij [12:50] and that destruction moves ahead, it [12:53] will make it easier then for these for [12:57] these opportunists to step forward and [12:59] say, "Okay, now we'll work with you. Now [13:01] we'll become the government and step in [13:03] then." But capitulating in the current [13:06] negotiation, they can't. So, they [13:07] actually want the bombing to resume. I [13:09] hope that made some sense. That's the [13:11] point he's making. That's the argument [13:12] that he makes here. [13:14] And uh [13:15] it's interesting. It has some merit. And [13:17] uh that's really what motivated me most [13:19] to make this video was that in very [13:21] interesting point because I've I've been [13:23] wondering about this myself looking at [13:25] all the tough talk. And sometimes it [13:26] seems so over the top and this idea that [13:30] they actually want the bombing to resume [13:33] because it'll make it easier [13:36] for the trans it'll make it easier for [13:38] them to make the transition to where [13:40] they become [13:42] the ones who cooperate with Trump but [13:44] they can't do it in the current [13:46] environment. Very interesting point by [13:48] Victor Davis Hanson. [13:50] They can't say that again and Iran is [13:52] the one that orchestrated the whole [13:54] thing. They are the ones that subsidized [13:56] the Houthis, Hamas and Hezbollah. [13:58] And they don't have any money right now. [14:01] And they have paid enormous half a [14:03] trillion dollars in infrastructure and [14:05] military stuff. [14:06] >> [gasps] [14:07] >> Just to sum up the $64,000 question when [14:11] Iran keeps threatening us is [14:14] nobody knows how many missiles they have [14:17] and drones and I don't think they [14:20] pose a existential threat to us cuz the [14:22] navy have been batting them away like [14:24] flies. [14:25] But [14:26] they [14:28] terrify the Gulf that they'll overwhelm [14:30] their air defenses [14:32] and they'll destroy their and they have [14:34] legitimate worries. So that's the only [14:36] leverage they have over us and then [14:38] trying to damage tankers coming in. [14:41] But if Trump will wants to stop all that [14:44] I think he could do it in a week [14:46] and I think [14:48] they would concede cuz I can tell you [14:51] what would happen. He would go in and he [14:52] would try to hit all of the bridges, he [14:54] would try to hit all the oil unloading [14:57] uh docks, all the ports [15:00] probably the some of the pipelines, [15:02] probably the generation plants [15:04] and then the Israelis would be having a [15:06] long long list of the Republican Guard [15:09] and and they would go down that list and [15:11] they know where they are and they would [15:12] eliminate them [15:14] and then probably the Gulf states would [15:16] be opportunistic, go in and do whatever [15:18] they needed to do and within a week or [15:21] two Iran would be a mess, if it's not [15:24] now. [15:25] I think Trump is getting close to that [15:27] point. [15:27] >> close to that because he knows that what [15:29] Iran is doing. They're trying to [15:32] a lot They're trying to help the [15:33] American left, and their whole strategy [15:35] is even if they make a deal, the deal [15:38] will be for 4 or 5 years. [15:41] And it'll be contingent on hoping that [15:44] Trump is so unpopular that Vance or [15:46] Rubio wouldn't win anyway, and they'll [15:48] get a Joe Biden Barack Obama figure. Any [15:51] Democrat. Look at the Democrats. Just to [15:53] say that [15:55] in 2029, [15:57] Iran is still trying to rebuild, and [15:59] there's President Buttigieg, or there's [16:01] President Newsom, or President Harris. [16:04] You know what they're going to do. God [16:05] forbid. [16:06] >> Yes, they're going to help them, and [16:08] they're going to give more money to [16:09] them, and relieve relieve them of [16:11] sanctions, cuz they like them. [16:15] That's the big fear. [16:17] You know, before I I finish up here, [16:19] before I comment on this, I just want to [16:21] remind everyone we have a [16:23] very important event taking place on [16:24] Wednesday, this just this week, [16:26] Wednesday, the 20th. And will it's a [16:29] webinar, will America first stand with [16:31] Israel? With I'll be leading it and [16:33] moderating, and my three uh [16:36] uh guests we're very excited, three very [16:39] esteemed guests are Josh Hammer, senior [16:41] editor at large at Newsweek, host of the [16:43] Josh Hammer Show, Dr. David Wurmser, who [16:46] is the uh senior analyst [16:48] for Middle East Affairs at the Center [16:50] for Security Policy in Washington D.C., [16:52] really one of the great Middle East [16:53] experts and experts on the US-Israel [16:55] relationship. He also served in multiple [16:57] administrations. [16:58] And uh Pastor Rob McCoy, who is uh [17:00] founder of TPUSA Faith, and senior [17:03] pastor of Godspeak Calvary Chapel, and [17:06] was Charlie Kirk's pastor and close uh [17:08] close mentor and confidant. Uh he he [17:11] traveled a lot with Charlie, and again, [17:12] he led uh a big component of of TPUSA [17:15] with Charlie. And uh he knows the [17:18] America First movement intimately. So, [17:20] they're going to be joining me for this [17:21] incredible webinar Wednesday 1:00 p.m. [17:24] Eastern 8:00 p.m. Israel time. Sign up [17:26] for it even if you can't make the time [17:28] because by signing up, you will then [17:30] automatically get an email [17:33] with the full webinar after it airs. [17:36] It'll be live if if you if you attend it [17:39] and that will might also give you the [17:40] opportunity to participate in a Q&A [17:42] component of it. [17:44] Um we'll see if we can fit that in, but [17:47] uh [17:48] again, even if you can't make it, sign [17:49] up for it and you can sign up at the [17:52] link in the description of this video or [17:53] you can use this QR code. You can scan [17:55] this QR code and it'll bring you to the [17:58] sign up page for this webinar will [18:00] America first stand with Israel, Josh [18:02] Hammer, David Wurmser, Pastor Rob McCoy [18:05] and yours truly and that'll be [18:06] Wednesday. [18:07] All right, so on what Victor Davis [18:09] Hanson was saying here [18:12] about uh [18:14] about the Democrats about who who'll be [18:15] president next. This only underscores [18:17] the urgency, you know, hovering over [18:19] this entire story [18:21] is the very grave danger [18:24] that this regime is still in power when [18:26] Trump leaves office. [18:28] Because no matter who comes next and [18:30] it's not just the Democrats. It's very [18:31] nice that he's talking about how [18:32] terrible it'll be if it's Democrat. [18:34] But if we end up with a president like a [18:36] J.D. Vance or someone else from the more [18:39] isolationist wing or someone who's just [18:41] not Trump who doesn't have that [18:42] conviction [18:43] about Iran because we know that Trump [18:45] has been on the Iran issue for decades. [18:48] Um [18:50] it could be very dangerous situation. [18:52] And from where I sit, I mean that's to [18:55] me the most critical issue here is that [18:58] looking at how at where politics are [18:59] headed, this connects with what we just [19:01] said about America first and Israel [19:03] because when you look beneath Trump at [19:04] the rest of the America First movement, [19:06] it's it's not so clear that the America [19:08] First movement is firmly in Israel's [19:10] camp. [19:11] And [19:12] and and certainly has a lot of [19:14] isolationist tendencies and the question [19:16] becomes what happens if this regime [19:18] remains in power after Trump. And that's [19:20] why they're delaying so much. This fits [19:22] into everything else he was saying. The [19:23] reason for all these delay tactics is [19:25] they want to get closer and closer to [19:26] the midterms and make it more likely [19:29] that they end up surviving [19:31] what Trump is doing. So, yeah. [19:34] Uh [19:35] that's what I wanted to share today. [19:36] Again, just to sum up the two key points [19:38] that I wanted to share. Uh there was the [19:42] Um you know, there was the point he made [19:43] about the UAE and Saudi Arabia or about [19:46] why they're attacking now and why they [19:49] didn't attack earlier. [19:50] Um and I shared my thoughts on that as [19:53] well as the you know, the this issue [19:56] of the tough talk that we're seeing [19:58] coming out of certain quarters of the [20:00] Iranian leadership and Victor Davis [20:02] Hanson's very interesting assertion that [20:04] maybe they actually want the bombing to [20:05] continue because it'll make it easier [20:08] it'll facilitate them actually becoming [20:11] the [20:13] you know, the top people who end up [20:14] inheriting the throne and working with [20:16] Trump. Uh but they just can't do it in [20:18] this current environment. They can't [20:19] capitulate. But more attacks will bring [20:22] them closer to a point where some of the [20:25] hardliners and the IRGC are eliminated [20:28] and then they can step forward and say [20:30] work with us. Very interesting theory. [20:32] All right, folks. I'll leave it there. [20:33] Thanks for watching. God bless. Keep [20:35] sharing and subscribing. And um [20:38] uh and please drop a comment. I read as [20:41] many comments as I can. I'm always [20:42] trying to get better at this. God bless.
