Transcript [00:00] So, I think we are due for some positive [00:03] thinking, some optimistic thinking. I [00:05] was in synagogue yesterday and someone [00:08] approached me who's an audience member. [00:10] He watches this channel. He told me he [00:11] watches the channel every day and that [00:13] it depresses him uh too often and I said [00:17] to him, "Well, it depresses me, too." [00:18] >> [laughter] [00:19] >> But uh you know, cuz especially lately, [00:21] ever since [00:23] these extensions and extensions of the [00:25] ceasefire and talk of a deal with with [00:28] the Iranian regime that would throw them [00:29] a lifeline and I've been very clear-eyed [00:31] about my criticisms of where things are [00:33] going. [00:34] But and it's easy to get a little too [00:35] negative because in this whole process, [00:39] if you think all the way back to the [00:40] beginning of the Trump administration [00:41] and everything we've been through, every [00:43] time we take [00:44] you know, two steps forward and then one [00:45] step back, [00:47] we can't panic every time there's a one [00:49] step back. I mean, it yes, we create [00:51] problems for ourselves and it would be a [00:53] terrible tragedy if we gave a lifeline [00:55] to the regime and and [00:57] and allow them to survive. [00:58] But even if we gave a lifeline to the [01:00] regime and allowed it to survive, which [01:01] would be a grave mistake, that doesn't [01:03] mean that the story ends there. There's [01:04] a lot of ways that things can still play [01:07] out and President Trump has [01:10] has come through [01:12] uh and made the right decision so many [01:14] times that I guess he's earned a certain [01:16] measure of our trust. That said, again, [01:19] the problems that we point out here on [01:21] this channel are real. What I want to do [01:23] in this video [01:24] is I want to talk about a an interview. [01:27] I want to show you a a few [01:29] things that Victor Davis Hanson said in [01:32] an interview that was done a few days [01:34] ago [01:35] by Stephen Gardner. Stephen Gardner has [01:37] a very successful YouTube channel, very [01:39] successful podcast. [01:40] And I'm just going to play you a short [01:42] clip [01:43] of Victor Davis Hanson being interviewed [01:45] by Stephen. I think I'll stop it at a [01:46] couple points. [01:48] And yeah, it made me think. So, here we [01:51] go. Here's uh [01:52] People will not accept the fact that [01:55] we don't control the uranium. [01:58] They have to do that. [02:00] Either seal it or destroy it or go take [02:03] it cuz they're never going to negotiate [02:04] that away. So, [02:06] I I can see what Trump was worried [02:08] about. He everything was so touchy and [02:10] he's he's basically saying to us [02:12] that hasn't been a war for almost 5 [02:15] weeks, 6 weeks. It's longer than the [02:17] actual war. So, the the real war was [02:19] only 42. It was wonderful. We did all [02:21] this. [02:22] And now we're just negotiating. [02:24] But at some point, he's got to see what [02:26] that you can't trust these people. [02:28] They're dragging it out to get closer to [02:30] the midterms and close that window of [02:32] opportunity. [02:34] Because I think they know and the left [02:36] here knows and the European left knows [02:39] that the fundamentals of the [02:41] economy, the jobs report, [02:44] the stock market, the GDP growth, [02:48] um they're all pretty solid and the [02:50] foreign investment is at record levels. [02:52] And all these new technologies are [02:54] starting to streamline the economy. [02:57] And we've cut a lot of federal employees [02:59] and it there's a lot of less illegal [03:01] migration. The crime rate is way down, [03:03] historically down. So, everything is [03:05] there except this [03:07] oil, you know, at $100 a barrel. If he [03:09] can get it down to 60 and that that [03:12] means he has to stop he has to [03:14] emasculate Iran and he's got to make [03:17] sure the strait is open and um the [03:20] uranium is accounted for and that's what [03:22] he's trying to negotiate with and I [03:24] think [03:25] from what I've talked to people, I think [03:28] there's there's a growing realization [03:30] that you cannot talk to these people and [03:32] get the uranium back. And I [03:34] I was saying to my wife the other day, [03:37] Friday afternoon will be a 4-day news [03:40] blackout cuz of Memorial Day. [03:42] If I were him [03:44] and I thought that I had come to that [03:46] conclusion, I would just do it Friday [03:47] afternoon when it's dark in Iran and do [03:49] it for 4 days and go full blast and get [03:52] it out of the news and get it over and [03:54] then just take one carrier group and [03:56] it's going to be auditing and get [03:58] everybody home and open the straight. [04:00] Militarily open it. Blast anything on [04:03] the sea, anything in the air, destroy [04:05] their docks, their ports, and then bring [04:07] the US military through to patrol it, [04:10] and then tell everybody it's safe and [04:11] come in. [04:13] And I think it will be dramatic if he [04:14] can do that, the the fall I think he's [04:16] right about that part, the fall of oil [04:18] prices. [04:20] Cuz there's a lot of specula- you know [04:22] there's a lot of speculators who thought [04:24] that it was going to go to 200 or 150 [04:26] and they they bought at futures. [04:29] And if we were awash in oil like I think [04:32] we will be, that will crash and they [04:33] want to unload it as quickly as possible [04:36] on these tankers and other storage [04:37] facilities. [04:39] So we'll see, but [04:41] that's where he is right now, [04:42] strategically. [04:44] Okay, I want to talk about this. [04:46] Um [04:47] you know, it what he says there about [04:50] the oil prices, you know, I was looking [04:52] at at oil prices earlier today. [04:56] Oh, there's my map of the Hormuz Strait, [04:58] we'll get to that in a minute. And when [05:01] when there was news of a deal, so this [05:03] is from yesterday before America started [05:06] attacking those locations in the Strait [05:09] of Hormuz, those defensive attacks, we [05:11] saw this headline oil prices dip amid [05:13] optimism over potential US-Iran deal. [05:17] And if you take a look, this is the [05:19] graph of oil over the last year. If we [05:21] break it if we bring it down to just the [05:23] last month, [05:26] you can see that this here [05:29] is [05:31] is is yesterday and today. [05:35] And [05:37] you know, and this this drop here is [05:38] from last Tuesday when everyone started [05:40] getting uh optimistic about there being [05:42] a deal, oil prices started dropping [05:44] really fast, and especially [05:46] over the course of the last day they've [05:48] been dropping because [05:50] of [05:51] because of the potential for a deal. [05:53] But if you zoom in a little bit closer [05:56] you see here that [05:58] um this is [06:00] from late last night and then they start [06:03] creeping up again. There's been here [06:05] let's take a look at the one day graph. [06:08] The single day graph actually sees oil [06:09] prices rising and that has to do with [06:12] the fact that when America started [06:13] attacking these sites in the Strait of [06:15] Hormuz and it looked like maybe there [06:16] isn't going to be a deal because [06:18] hostilities are ramping up again. [06:20] Everyone starts getting skittish. So [06:22] literally you can track this war I mean [06:24] if you go back [06:25] to you know to the to the graph of the [06:28] year so here [06:30] you know right here [06:33] this is where the war gets launched [06:35] right here right before it starts [06:36] shooting up and then right here at the [06:38] peak this is two this is April 7th the [06:40] ceasefire goes into effect April 8th [06:43] and then it starts dropping [06:44] precipitously and then it's just [06:45] literally you can track the price of oil [06:47] with how things are going. And what I [06:49] was thinking about as I was listening to [06:51] Victor Davis Hanson talking here [06:54] you know cuz again you see this European [06:56] stocks fall oil rises after US strikes [06:58] in Iran. That's from this morning after [07:00] the strikes in Iran. [07:01] And I and as Victor Davis Hanson was [07:03] talking [07:04] and he raised a very interesting point. [07:06] The reason that oil prices are high is [07:08] not because oil isn't being pumped. It [07:10] isn't because there's a scarcity of oil. [07:12] There's lots and lots of oil. It's just [07:15] it's stuck. It can't move. The Strait of [07:18] Hormuz are closed. And we also saw [07:20] during the course of the last couple [07:21] months the UAE pulling out of OPEC and [07:24] OPEC is a price fixing scheme. And that [07:27] means that the UAE wants to produce more [07:28] oil than they were producing before and [07:30] potentially sell it at lower prices and [07:32] not be stuck in the OPEC price fixing [07:35] scheme. The United States is pumping [07:36] more oil than ever. The Venezuela [07:38] situation is also producing tremendous [07:41] amounts of oil. [07:43] So, there's actually plenty of oil. It's [07:45] just there's a problem of it moving. So, [07:47] as soon as the Strait of Hormuz [07:49] situation gets solved, [07:51] the there's going to be a tremendous [07:53] amount of oil, and oil is actually going [07:55] to plummet. [07:58] Now, [08:00] this leads us back to the political [08:01] issue, which is [08:04] what what what Victor Davis Hanson [08:05] suggests here is he says, "Listen, just [08:07] rip the band-aid off. Just go in, [08:10] find an opportune time, sooner the [08:11] better, and just go in guns blazing and [08:13] sort this out. [08:15] And the faster you do it, the better. [08:17] And then you just put it behind you. [08:18] There will be a massive spike in oil [08:20] prices while you're doing the action. [08:22] But if you do it nice and quick, [08:24] oil will then plummet. [08:26] And that's where Trump is kind of [08:28] hamstringing himself a little bit. He [08:30] wants to keep the prices of oil down. [08:32] And part of the reason he doesn't want [08:33] us [08:34] carry out military action is because he [08:36] doesn't want the price going back up. [08:39] But what he's doing now in this kind of, [08:41] you know, game of chicken with the [08:43] Iranians and going and and stringing [08:46] things along and hoping to get a deal, [08:48] and the Iranians drive a tough bargain, [08:49] and [08:50] and is the situation really solved or is [08:53] it not solved, and are the straits open [08:54] or are they not open? This is actually [08:56] going to cause these these fluctuations [08:58] that we've been seeing, the type of [09:00] fluctuations we see you know, we see [09:02] here when we look at the one-month [09:04] chart. [09:05] And [09:07] maybe Trump is getting the message that [09:09] he's got to take matters into his own [09:10] hands and just get the straits open. And [09:12] that's why I was feeling optimistic this [09:14] morning when you see that he's that he's [09:16] opening the the straits. [09:19] We didn't see that I mean, let's see [09:21] what happens during the course of the [09:22] day, but but but if Trump is saying I'm [09:24] we're going to forcibly open the Strait [09:25] of Hormuz, or at the very least, these [09:27] attacks sent the message to the regime [09:30] that he's willing to take kinetic action [09:31] to get them open. Because as I [09:32] explained, just in case you didn't see [09:34] that video, you should watch it. [09:36] What were what were you were told in [09:38] today's headlines that these were [09:40] defensive strikes because they were [09:42] laying mines. It's true, they were [09:44] laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. [09:46] Um [09:48] but the Americans called them defensive [09:50] strikes. They sort of were, but let's [09:52] look at where they struck. Besides [09:54] striking boats that were laying mines, [09:57] the locations that were listed in the [10:00] the more in-depth news reporting about [10:02] these strikes from yesterday was that [10:03] they struck Bandar Abbas, which is up [10:05] here. [10:06] They struck [10:08] um [10:12] And besides Bandar Abbas, [10:14] they struck Jask, which is down here, [10:17] which is right opposite the uh Fujairah [10:20] and Khorfakkan [10:22] uh [10:23] ports, which take the UAE, the Emirati [10:26] oil that comes across through the [10:28] pipeline from the west to the east to [10:31] bypass the Strait of Hormuz. [10:33] The [10:34] the um [10:36] the Jask [10:37] missile launching sites was was was [10:40] struck were struck last night cuz [10:42] they're designed to disrupt the Emirati [10:45] uh shipments of oil, and they also [10:47] struck [10:48] uh right here. [10:50] Um let me find this spot here. [10:56] Uh [10:58] up on here. Yeah, here it is. [11:01] This spot right here. [11:04] Uh Sirik, Sirik. That's where they they [11:06] struck that also. So, they struck these [11:08] sites here, [11:09] meaning and they also struck this uh [11:11] there were also explosions heard right [11:13] around this island. This is Larak [11:15] Island, which is if you see where this [11:17] island is and this island is this is the [11:18] narrowest spot in the Strait of Hormuz. [11:21] So, [11:22] it seems to me that what the Americans [11:25] were actually doing [11:27] uh by striking Jask, sorry, it was [11:29] Sirik. Jask, Sirik is right here, and [11:31] Bandar Abbas uh striking these missile [11:34] launching sites and also going after the [11:37] boats laying mines is that they were [11:39] putting the Iranians on notice that [11:41] they're willing to forcibly take out the [11:44] threats that are keeping the Straits of [11:46] Hormuz closed. [11:47] And [11:48] that makes me think that if Trump just [11:50] goes ahead and moves forward with this [11:51] type of action, we could see the Straits [11:53] of Hormuz open sooner rather than later. [11:56] And once they get open, the price of oil [11:59] should be dropping pretty rapidly. And [12:01] that's a that's a good thing. [12:03] So that gave me some reason for [12:04] optimism. [12:06] And [12:07] yeah, now there's another interesting [12:08] point that's made in this in this [12:10] discussion. Let's take a look at it. [12:11] >> resolved militarily, tactically it was [12:13] resolved. We destroyed their military. [12:15] We suffered very little casualties. [12:18] It was a brilliant military campaign, [12:19] but we haven't transferred [12:22] transferred or translated that military [12:24] victory, overwhelming though it was, [12:26] into strategic advantage and resolution [12:28] yet. We're on the way there, but we have [12:31] a time [12:32] we have pressures. He decided to go [12:33] before the midterms. That was very [12:35] courageous, but [12:36] that thing is ticking. [12:38] And if he loses the House and the [12:40] Senate, he's not going to be able to [12:42] appoint a judge. He's not going to be [12:43] able to get any legislation. It's going [12:45] to be all by what Barack Obama called [12:48] phone and pen. I got a phone. I got a [12:50] pen. [12:51] And executive orders and that's [12:54] it's going to be tricky. [12:56] Okay. [12:57] Yeah, I [12:59] I appreciate your analysis cuz as I've [13:01] been studying it, that's that's kind of [13:03] what I'm looking at is like militarily [13:06] absolutely destroyed them. I've had [13:08] people you know, out at dinner tell me, [13:11] you know, the US military is losing and [13:13] I'm like, are you kidding me? 10% of our [13:15] military wiped out 100% of their air [13:19] force and navy within a week. Yeah. Um [13:22] you know, you're just mad about gas [13:23] prices and they're like, well, yeah, I [13:24] guess I'm just mad about gas prices. So [13:26] and I've also wondered [13:28] um [13:29] you know, does it make sense to just you [13:31] know, bomb the hell out of the uranium [13:33] site and then say we're going to put [13:35] space force on it because it's cheaper [13:38] than you know, sitting there doing this [13:40] and then and then move on. Absolutely. I [13:43] I think that's exactly right. You you [13:45] bomb all you can in Pike Mountain or [13:47] wherever you determine it is and then [13:49] you've got [13:51] wonderful reconnaissance and [13:53] it's like mowing the lawn. You say, "You [13:55] know what? I see trucks there. I see [13:56] people try I'm going to send some people [13:59] from Kansas in a B-2 [14:01] and you can do that. They have no air [14:02] defenses. [14:04] And even when they had them, the Chinese [14:05] air defenses were not very good. And [14:08] they can and they can break them. And [14:11] I think they can do it in five or six [14:13] days. I don't I think they can leave the [14:14] oil storage intact and just get rid of [14:16] the ports and the cranes so they can't [14:18] unload it. And then if there's a [14:21] The Berlin Wall fell in '89. It took two [14:24] to three months for most of the European [14:26] countries [14:27] to throw out the communist governments. [14:29] It took the Soviet Union two years. But [14:31] you that was the creation of that [14:34] liberation was the fall of the wall. And [14:36] I think [14:37] once everybody in Iran sees how bad it [14:40] is [14:41] and they see that these crazy people [14:43] want to resume, you know, 10 billion a [14:45] year to the Houthis and the Hamas and [14:49] Hezbollah Arab terrorists and they want [14:51] to rebuild all of this stuff that's half [14:53] a trillion dollars over 50 years has [14:55] been gone up in smoke. I don't I don't [14:57] think the the people will like that. And [15:00] so [15:01] it's they're going to have hard times [15:03] and and [15:04] we'll see [15:06] if they can control it next time. [15:09] Okay. [15:11] So, did you catch the optimism there? [15:14] Let me explain. [15:16] Both on the issue of the uranium [15:18] and on the issue of the regime [15:21] eventually falling [15:23] Victor Davis Hanson points out, and [15:25] Stephen Gardner also initially pointed [15:27] out that [15:28] you don't necessarily need to bring down [15:31] the regime now. [15:33] You don't necessarily need to take the [15:34] uranium out. Let's remember, Iran has no [15:37] air defenses, and the Americans aren't [15:40] going away. Trump is going to leave [15:41] military assets there until this thing [15:43] is really, really, really totally [15:45] resolved, and maybe for a long time. The [15:47] Israelis still have freedom of operation [15:50] in the airspace above Iran. [15:51] And if [15:54] as Stephen said, if you just bomb [15:56] the sites where the uranium is, and then [15:58] you surveil the area with with [16:01] satellites, with space force, [16:03] you keep a watchful eye over it, [16:06] it The Iranians have no air defenses. [16:08] Now, you have to prevent them from [16:09] rebuilding their air defenses, and [16:11] they're going to try to rebuild them. [16:12] They're already claiming [16:14] that they're rebuilding their air [16:15] defenses. They probably are I don't know [16:17] what they're getting from the Chinese or [16:18] the Russians, [16:20] but we certainly have the ability right [16:21] now to keep a watchful eye over it. And [16:24] the same goes for the fall of the [16:25] regime. [16:27] You know, if [16:28] if the people of Iran rise up at some [16:31] point, [16:33] 2 months, 3 months, 6 months from now, a [16:35] year from now, and as as Victor Davis [16:37] Hanson said, the Soviet Union fell, [16:40] you know, it took some time for it to [16:41] happen, but it was all the result of the [16:44] of the victory of the Cold War. It took [16:46] some time to play out. [16:48] So, what he's arguing here is it doesn't [16:51] all have to happen right now as a result [16:53] of direct, you know, as a direct result [16:55] of the policy decisions that are made in [16:56] the course of this war. [16:59] But, if they're degraded, if they don't [17:01] have air defenses, if they're battered, [17:03] and [17:05] and we have a watchful eye over them, [17:07] we're still, you know, we can still, [17:10] you know, police them. [17:14] The their ability to suppress their [17:15] people, their ability to do another [17:17] slaughter of their people and get away [17:19] with it [17:21] is [17:22] limited to say the least. [17:24] The chances that the regime survives [17:27] after this [17:29] um are not what they were before. [17:31] Meaning they're so weakened that the [17:34] process has already been set in motion. [17:35] That's what he's That's what he's [17:37] telling us here. And we have to keep [17:38] that in mind. I'm not saying we know [17:39] what will happen. [17:41] And I know it might be it might be [17:42] strange for you to hear me being [17:43] optimistic. [17:44] But we have to keep in mind that the [17:46] story doesn't end just because we say [17:49] the war is over or just because Trump [17:51] says we're done or whatever it is. The [17:52] story doesn't end there. [17:54] The situation's always dynamic. Look, [17:57] the 12-day war happened in June. [17:59] And after the 12-day war, Trump lifted [18:02] sanctions on them and he allowed them to [18:04] sell their oil. And I we were like, "Oh [18:05] my gosh, what is he doing?" And then [18:06] what happened? [18:08] Seven months Six months later, the [18:10] Iranian people took to the streets and [18:11] almost brought the regime down, which [18:12] led to this. [18:15] So, it could take longer or it could [18:17] take them shorter, whatever it is. But [18:19] we've done so much damage to them and we [18:21] have the ability to to keep a watchful [18:23] eye. We have control of the skies. [18:26] There's a lot a lot of reason to be [18:27] optimistic even if we're not getting [18:29] everything we want. And even if Even if [18:32] again, admittedly, as I've been pointing [18:34] out, even if Trump is making some [18:35] decisions that are making it more [18:37] difficult and dragging things out, [18:39] there's no there's not necessarily a [18:40] reason to be too pessimistic. So, I will [18:43] continue to give you my clear-eyed [18:45] analysis of what is going on. [18:47] And again, have to assess what we're [18:48] seeing in front of us and be critical [18:50] where necessary and point out the [18:52] warning signs. I will continue, of [18:53] course, to do that. [18:55] But let's keep you know, but let's keep [18:57] our our spirits up and realize that we [18:59] are in We, when I say we, I mean Israel, [19:01] that's where I live, [19:03] but also the West, the world, we are in [19:05] a far better position now than we were [19:08] before this war started. [19:09] Uh yes, the price of oil is high, but we [19:12] are in a far better position now. And [19:14] even if everything ended right now and [19:16] we'd be like, "Oh my gosh, the regime is [19:17] still intact. This is terrible." [19:19] We're in a better position now than we [19:21] were before. [19:22] Uh and the same is true with the [19:24] degradation of Hamas and Hezbollah. If [19:25] we think back to before October 7th, [19:28] yes, we need to finish the job. It's [19:30] very important that we do so. [19:32] But let's keep a level head and uh and [19:34] keep a and and keep ourselves, you know, [19:36] keep our feet on the ground. [19:38] Thank God, lots of progress is being [19:40] made. Yes, there are some things we want [19:42] to do a little bit differently, [19:44] but uh [19:45] but things are still good. So, let's [19:47] let's keep our spirits up. God bless.
