Transcript [00:00] Hey everyone, start of another week and [00:01] it seems like every week is the biggest [00:03] week in [00:04] in in in this part of the world in the [00:06] Middle East and everything that we've [00:07] been talking about. Uh now let me make a [00:09] comment before we get into the subject [00:11] of this video, why I look unkempt, why [00:13] I've been unshaven. Many of you know, [00:15] some of you don't know and I've had some [00:16] comments in number of the videos over [00:18] the last week about my appearance. So [00:21] for those who are unaware, the we are in [00:23] a period of time right now on the Jewish [00:24] calendar where we are mourning the [00:27] destruction of Jerusalem and the temple [00:29] from 2,000 years ago when the when the [00:32] Romans in the year 70 uh laid siege to [00:34] Jerusalem, destroyed Jerusalem, [00:35] destroyed the temple and it is we're in [00:37] that period of mourning. This is the [00:39] time period when it happened and [00:41] therefore there are a variety of customs [00:44] um and many many Jews have the custom to [00:48] not shave during this period of time as [00:50] part of our sign of sadness and [00:53] mournfulness not to shave, not to take [00:54] haircuts and many other things. I'm not [00:56] going That's not the subject of this [00:58] video. I'm just letting you know why I [00:59] look unshaven and unkempt. I've I've [01:01] received some comments about that. So uh [01:04] after Thursday, Thursday is the 9th of [01:05] the month of Av on the Jewish calendar, [01:07] that's the anniversary of the [01:08] destruction of the temple and after that [01:10] I should be cleaned up and looking [01:12] spiffy. Now, what we're going to talk [01:14] about in this video is the American [01:18] thinking, the the strategy of the United [01:20] States of America right now. What is [01:22] President Trump thinking? What are the [01:23] options in front of him and how is he [01:25] playing this? And we're going to look at [01:27] this question through the lens of a of a [01:32] video of a clip by Victor Davis Hanson, [01:35] the great Victor Davis Hanson. [01:37] Uh you're probably familiar with him and [01:38] certainly if you watch this channel [01:39] regularly, you know that I I have you I [01:42] use clips of him uh uh [01:44] fairly frequently and comment on them. [01:46] He's a great uh he's a great mind, great [01:48] military historian and analyst. [01:51] However, [01:52] the reason I wanted to discuss this clip [01:54] is [01:55] I'm just I'm telling you in in a head [01:56] ahead of time what we're going to see. [01:58] In this clip, he is going to lay out the [02:00] strategic calculations that are going on [02:02] in the minds of President Trump and the [02:04] minds of the Americans and what the [02:06] various options are in front of them. [02:08] This is what he's going to lay out. [02:10] And everything he says is smart and [02:12] accurate and I think that it is a [02:14] correct read of how the of what the [02:16] Americans are thinking. That said, that [02:19] said, [02:21] the [02:22] everything he's going to lay out has [02:24] this big blind spot. And I don't know if [02:26] it's his blind spot or he's just [02:28] reflecting the Americans blind spot, but [02:29] it has a blind spot. And the blind spot [02:32] is uh the the usual Western blind spot [02:36] that leads to a prolonging of this whole [02:38] situation of this whole war, throwing a [02:41] lifeline to the regime and all those [02:42] things. So, we're going to lay out what [02:43] we see. Let's start with the first with [02:46] the first clip from Victor Davis Hanson [02:48] and this is going to be about 3 minutes [02:50] long and then I'll stop it and I'll have [02:52] something to say and then we'll go and [02:53] then we'll go on. So, here we go. [02:56] Victor Davis Hanson. [02:58] >> Hello, this is Victor Davis Hanson for [03:00] the Daily Signal. [03:02] We're approaching 140 days uh since we [03:07] first attacked [03:09] uh Iran on February 28th of this year [03:12] and we only really had People call this [03:14] a war, but it's basically 40 days of [03:18] actual bombing and tit-for-tat followed [03:22] by 100 days of negotiations inter splice [03:25] with some tit-for-tat exchange of [03:28] missiles and drones, but for the most [03:30] part, we have negotiated. Now, the we [03:34] know the strategy of both sides. The [03:35] strategy of our [03:38] uh president was [03:40] he wanted to stay in power, meaning he [03:43] wanted to have control of the Congress, [03:45] otherwise his initiatives and agenda [03:47] will be ossified if the Democrats take [03:50] over the house. They will impeach him if [03:53] they take over the house, and he's [03:55] protected against conviction by running [03:58] the Senate. [03:59] But if he should lose the house or [04:00] Senate, in other words, if things would [04:02] blow up, he would be in deep trouble. [04:04] So, his point was always to [04:07] make sure that Iran did not have the [04:09] ability to produce a nuclear weapon and [04:11] did not have the ability to launch [04:13] missiles all over the Gulf and did not [04:16] have the ability to close the Straits of [04:18] Hormuz. [04:20] But the negotiations interrupted that [04:23] cycle in which Iran also had a strategy, [04:26] and their strategy was [04:28] if we can drag this conflict out and [04:31] punctuate it with missile launches and [04:34] ride out the retaliations, which would [04:36] be proportional or symmetric, we can run [04:39] the clock out all the way to the [04:41] midterms. If we do, the Democrats will [04:44] take over the House of Representatives, [04:46] and maybe they will not allot money to [04:48] continue Trump's war, and more [04:50] importantly, maybe this will be the [04:53] start of a new government in 2028 and [04:56] will be home free as we were with Biden [04:59] and [05:00] Obama. So, that was their strategy. Drag [05:03] it out, drag it out. Who won? Well, [05:05] we'll see about the the denouement, but [05:08] for now, Iran has been able to survive [05:11] because [05:12] we stopped full-scale uh [05:15] fighting almost 100 days ago, and these [05:18] tit-for-tats have been ineffectual in [05:20] the sense they have not stopped the [05:23] missile barrages to the Gulf states, and [05:25] they have not uh given us control over [05:28] the Strait of Hormuz, and we do not have [05:30] control of the enriched uranium. So, [05:34] >> Okay. [05:35] Let's uh pause there [05:37] and talk about what he just said. [05:42] Um so, first of all, his comment [05:46] uh about the Iranian strategy is spot-on [05:50] and it's exactly what I wrote before the [05:52] war began, 10 days before the war began. [05:54] I uh Jerusalem Post published a column [05:57] uh that I wrote [05:59] where I said exactly that. I said the [06:01] Iranian strategy is [06:03] to [06:05] absorb the strikes of the United States, [06:07] that they actually prefer This was back [06:09] when we were all wondering, why are they [06:11] not giving in to Trump? Why are they not [06:13] You know, all of this military build-up, [06:15] they don't have a chance. Why are they [06:16] not capitulating? And I said, "They're [06:18] not capitulating because they actually [06:20] want to go to war. It's better for them [06:23] than agreeing to a deal that [06:25] uh that ties their hands because the [06:27] Americans had laid out during that whole [06:29] negotiation and arms build-up, the [06:30] Americans had made these four demands [06:32] that became the four war aims to deal to [06:35] to dismantle the ballistic missile [06:37] threat, to stop the funding for the [06:39] proxies. At the time, it was to stop [06:41] human rights abuses, stop abusing their [06:43] own people, and [06:46] um [06:47] and to and to uh surrender [06:50] their ability to have a nuclear weapon. [06:51] And from the Iranians' perspective, [06:54] we'd rather go to war because I they [06:55] knew [06:57] uh or they they felt that they have a [06:59] better chance of the regime surviving, [07:00] no matter how bad the damage is. [07:03] And no matter And think about that in [07:05] terms of where we are now. This is what [07:06] I wrote then. No matter how bad the [07:07] damage is, [07:09] it could be terrible damage, but as long [07:11] as they remain in power, [07:14] then they could ride out the rest of the [07:15] Trump administration and they'll be [07:16] fine. And that's exactly where we are [07:18] right now. And he said he had a very [07:20] important uh turn of phrase in there [07:23] where he said that the Iranians [07:25] uh And And he's he's not attributing [07:26] that to the full war. What he's saying [07:28] is that the original uh strikes, the [07:30] original 40 days of of striking [07:32] from February 28th to April 8th, that [07:35] was [07:37] you know, when that was happening, you [07:38] know, it's cuz we stopped that that the [07:40] you know, that we are where we are now. [07:41] But, I don't think that's entirely true [07:43] cuz so long as the strikes were really [07:45] about degrading their military, [07:48] then that still is in the category of [07:50] what I of what I'm saying, of what I [07:51] wrote about, that they could just ride [07:53] it out, and they could end up surviving [07:55] and not be removed from power. What was [07:56] happening at the end [07:58] What was happening at the end of that 40 [08:00] days is what is so critical, and that's [08:03] that's the what stopped [08:06] on April 8th that gave a lifeline to the [08:08] regime is not the American bombing [08:11] military of military targets. [08:14] What stopped on April 8th was the [08:15] Israeli attacks on the IRGC, the Basij, [08:20] the regime targets, [08:22] the checkpoints. We started to see [08:24] desertions. That's what stopped on April [08:26] 8th. [08:27] In any event, and that's that's already [08:29] uh [08:30] I'm starting to, [08:31] you know, to tell you what the blind [08:32] spot is in this whole thing. But, [08:34] nevertheless, that's what he says. That [08:35] was the So, the Iranians uh strategy was [08:37] to [08:39] was uh, you know, to just always, [08:42] you know, look to buy more time. [08:44] And the American strategy, Trump is [08:46] looking to make sure that he gets [08:47] reelected in the midterms, which is [08:48] true. And there's a lot to be said for [08:50] that cuz no matter how frustrated people [08:52] on our side have been with the with the [08:54] ceasefire and the MOU and and and uh [08:58] you know, how how certain aspects of the [09:00] war aims seem to have fallen by the [09:02] wayside. We have to remember that if the [09:04] if President Trump loses the midterm [09:05] elections, he loses the house, loses the [09:06] Senate, [09:08] then we're in way worse shape. [09:10] So, [09:11] if if the calculation is correct that [09:14] this is what he needs to do to win the [09:15] midterms, we have to be behind that. [09:17] Okay, let's just keep that in mind. [09:19] Okay, let's uh let's watch a little bit [09:20] more of this, and then I'll comment [09:21] again. [09:23] Okay. [09:25] Here we go. [09:27] >> So, where where are we now? [09:29] We still have the same pressures on [09:30] Donald Trump. We've got less than 4 [09:33] months now until the the [09:35] but the economic news has been [09:37] surprisingly good. [09:39] Inflation at a per month rate is at a [09:42] historical low almost. And [09:46] unemployment is about 4.2. GDP GDP is [09:49] strong at 2.3 2.4. Stock market is high. [09:55] The full effect of tax cuts and greater [09:58] energy production [clears throat] [10:00] and deregulations are starting to be [10:03] uh felt along with foreign investments. [10:05] So Trump thinks that along with the [10:08] redistricting and the Supreme Court [10:10] ruling on gerrymandering, he might have [10:12] a chance [10:14] to upset the historical reality that 39 [10:18] of the last 41 midterms have gone to the [10:21] out party. [10:22] So he still thinks he has a chance and [10:24] he still wants to conclude operations [10:27] and go home and the Iranians know that. [10:29] So where [10:30] >> Okay, so before we go on, let's talk [10:33] about the economic side of this cuz [10:35] that's what he just laid out. He's like, [10:36] "Hey, you know, the economy's actually [10:37] doing really well. So in terms of the [10:38] midterms, Trump is confident that a lot [10:42] of the indicators the economic [10:44] indicators are so strong that that that [10:46] he should be able to ride that to [10:47] success in the midterms. I want to add [10:49] in another ingredient here that has [10:50] directly to do with this war, [10:52] which is this. [10:54] When the war began [10:56] and [10:58] there was this spike in oil prices. [11:01] And that's what started causing that was [11:03] the main driver of the domestic [11:08] uh discontent, the domestic criticism of [11:10] what he was doing or we should say the [11:12] voter sentiment turning against the war [11:15] that was causing Trump a problem and he [11:17] and then he and then it so it [11:19] it plot line in the war of the need to [11:22] get the oil prices down in the Strait of [11:24] Hormuz and all that. That's when all [11:25] that [11:26] started happening. Now, what Trump kept [11:28] saying all the way through, [11:31] listen carefully. I think this is a huge [11:33] point that people are missing. [11:35] When Trump kept saying early on when the [11:38] when the prices were really going sky [11:39] high, breaking 100 and well over 100, [11:43] he kept saying, "No worry, don't worry. [11:45] As soon as this is over, they're going [11:47] to come right back down. They're going [11:48] to drop like a rock." Like he kept [11:50] saying that. He kept reminding everyone [11:52] they're going to come way back down. [11:53] They're going to get down lower than [11:54] before. Like he was emphasizing that. [11:57] And it was easy at the time to take that [12:00] as kind of like, [12:02] you know, Trump saying, "No, no, no [12:04] problem, no problem. I got this under [12:05] control." And like is that part of the [12:07] bluster? Is it just optimism? [12:10] The fact that he was right. [12:13] The fact that the prices did plummet [12:17] during the ceasefire and come all the [12:19] way down. And all the way down as low as [12:21] they were before the war even began. [12:24] What I believe is that if in this next [12:26] phase of the war that we're in now that [12:28] could continue for a little while, that [12:30] even if the prices go back up to where [12:32] they were at the high point early in the [12:34] war, [12:35] it will [12:37] First of all, I don't think they will go [12:39] that high because a lot of the most of [12:41] that that spike in prices was not [12:43] because there was a lack of supply of [12:46] oil. [12:48] The oil that the world had at its [12:49] disposal was fine. It all had to do with [12:52] futures, with speculation, with where [12:54] things are going. And that's why it was [12:56] fluctuating so rapidly. I mean the the [12:59] the supply of oil doesn't fluctuate on a [13:01] day-to-day basis that rapidly. [13:03] That's what that was really about. So I [13:04] believe that even if the prices do [13:08] spike, [13:09] from the at the level of the voters, of [13:11] the consumer, even if they see that [13:13] spike in prices again, [13:15] when Trump [13:17] messages this time, "Don't worry, the [13:19] prices are going to come down as fast as [13:21] they rose and it's going to get down as [13:23] low as it was before." [13:25] There is now so much more confidence [13:28] in Trump saying that. There's so much [13:29] more faith that people will have in [13:31] Trump when he says that because they [13:33] just experienced it a few weeks earlier, [13:34] a month earlier, or two months earlier, [13:36] or however long this goes on. [13:38] So, I think that's a very important part [13:39] of what he this piece of of his argument [13:42] here [13:43] that Trump feels that there you know, [13:44] that he has some pretty solid indicators [13:47] economically and the people there [13:49] shouldn't you know, that that he's [13:51] actually in a stronger position. [13:53] Now, that it could be that Trump is [13:55] already thinking about that and that's [13:56] why he is willing to be engaged [13:59] kinetically to the extent that we are, [14:01] but I just wanted to add that in here. [14:03] Let's continue with Victor Davis Hanson. [14:04] >> Where are we now? I think we can see [14:06] what he's doing. The last four days he's [14:08] had very, very strong strikes. [14:11] Some of his critics have said on the [14:13] right [14:14] we're hitting all of these dock works [14:16] and these small mosquito fleet and the [14:20] the [14:21] fuel for missiles. Why didn't we do that [14:23] earlier? [14:25] We didn't do it earlier because we were [14:26] negotiating and we were measured and [14:29] proportionate and to deal with the [14:31] Iranians now you have to be on measured [14:33] and disproportionate. So, what we are [14:36] seeing now is a full scale effort to [14:39] destroy all of their military abilities. [14:42] That would mean going to the factories, [14:45] the industrial complex that makes these [14:47] missiles. Find them where where their [14:50] launchers are. Find their drone fields. [14:52] Clear the corridor near the straight of [14:55] all of their anti-aircraft ability, [14:58] their missiles, their drones, and their [15:01] small fleet of vestigial boats that they [15:04] use to mine the straight and attack [15:07] tankers. Clear it all out. Do this for a [15:10] week or two weeks and then stop and see [15:13] [clears throat] if they want to concede. [15:15] >> Okay. [15:16] Now, we've hit the big blind spot. [15:21] He's saying that now Trump is hitting [15:23] them really hard and he's really wiping [15:24] out all their military capabilities. [15:27] Look, [15:30] wiping out their military capabilities [15:33] from the air [15:34] is not going to solve this. [15:38] Let me say that again. Wiping out even [15:40] all of their military capabilities from [15:42] the air is not going to solve this. If [15:45] these guys remain in power, [15:49] you're not going to take away all the [15:50] machine guns that the Basij and the IRGC [15:52] have. Like what does it mean to wipe out [15:53] their military capabilities? It means [15:55] missiles, drones, all the things he's [15:56] describing, their ability to wage war, [15:59] their ability to close the Strait of [16:00] Hormuz. Yeah, you could do that. [16:03] You could do that. [16:05] But that's just a more extreme version, [16:08] a more severe version, I should say, [16:11] of the same band-aid solutions that are [16:13] not actually solving the problem. [16:16] Like that's that's the that's the blind [16:18] spot here. [16:19] And it's also very [16:21] costly and time-consuming and we're and [16:23] we're wiping out all the military [16:24] capabilities. [16:26] I I made a video at the end of last [16:28] week, on Friday, [16:30] where I laid out five things that I [16:32] think the US should be doing or could be [16:34] doing that would actually lead to a [16:36] swifter victory and would not involve [16:38] any boots on the ground. It would [16:39] involve far less kinetic activity than [16:42] is happening now. [16:43] Far less damage than is happening now [16:46] and could actually lead to victory. [16:48] And they're all and all the suggestions [16:50] I made, you should go watch that video. [16:51] I'm also I also turned it into a into a [16:53] column that's going to run in the [16:54] Jerusalem Post this week. [16:56] Cuz I think it's very important. [16:58] And what I was talking about in that [16:59] piece, [17:00] and you should go watch that video, [17:02] maybe I'll pin it in this in this one. [17:03] I'll pin it in the comment in this video [17:05] as soon as this one comes out. [17:08] But [17:09] what I was saying there is [17:12] they want to survive as a regime. [17:15] So even though you've intensified the [17:17] strikes on all the military [17:19] installations and all the military [17:21] equipment and their ability to strike, [17:23] that's not going to bring down the [17:24] regime. [17:26] And any if And if you don't bring down [17:28] the regime, I know everyone's like, "Oh, [17:29] this We don't want this to be regime [17:30] change." Understand something. It's very [17:32] nice to say, "Yeah, we don't want regime [17:34] change." because you're worried that [17:35] it's going to be another Iraq or another [17:36] Afghanistan or another Libya or [17:39] whatever, chaos. [17:42] But this is a totally different [17:44] situation. [17:46] If these people are not dislodged from [17:48] power, [17:49] they will They are single-minded. [17:52] We Have we Haven't we seen enough [17:55] in their behavior, how they behave [17:57] towards their own people, how they [17:59] behave when they're given any respite? [18:01] Even during this respite where they were [18:02] negotiating, what do What do we now now [18:04] find out that they were actually going [18:06] back to try to restart the [18:08] you know, the program, the nuclear [18:09] program? They were buying Whatever money [18:12] they got, whatever little bit of money [18:13] they got while their economy's [18:14] collapsing and everyone's starving, they [18:16] used it to purchase airplanes from [18:18] Russia. [18:19] We saw all this. [18:21] Why do you think this will this will end [18:24] if even if you destroy all of their [18:26] military capabilities? [18:28] But the IRGC and the Basij are still [18:30] there and and these guys are still in [18:31] power and they're battered, terribly [18:33] battered. And Trump says, "Look, you [18:35] know, they have no ability to have a [18:36] nuclear weapon. We've destroyed their [18:37] military. Everyone is safe. The Strait [18:39] of Hormuz are open. None of their [18:41] neighboring countries are threatened." [18:46] Okay, so they waited out. [18:48] They're selling their oil. They're doing [18:50] business through Pakistan to China to [18:52] Russia. [18:54] And what are they going to do with that [18:55] money after Trump leaves office? What [18:56] are they going to do? [18:58] They'll be back to doing This is what [19:00] This is who they are. [19:02] And therefore, what really needs to [19:03] happen here is to think about what are [19:06] the things that you can do [19:07] that can actually destabilize the [19:10] regime. Cuz believe it or not, bombing [19:12] them to kingdom come is not [19:13] destabilizing the regime. [19:16] The economic warfare is. That's great. [19:19] The economic warfare is actually more [19:20] effective than the bombing. [19:22] In my opinion. Because that can actually [19:24] lead to the regime to fall. [19:27] That could lead the regime to fall. [19:29] But, you know what else will lead the [19:29] regime to fall? [19:33] Calling the people out to the streets. [19:35] Providing air cover for them. [19:37] Calling out the Iranians for Mojtaba [19:40] Khamenei [19:42] being not actually being in charge and [19:44] forcing them to verify that he's in [19:46] charge. Forcing their hand. [19:49] Because what that will show the Iranian [19:51] people, if they can't produce a living [19:53] breathing Mojtaba Khamenei, [19:56] and all suddenly there's a massive [19:58] question out in public about whether or [19:59] not he's actually alive, the way these [20:01] people think, that will destabilize the [20:03] regime. That's what they fear. They fear [20:05] that more than they fear any bombing of [20:08] any of their military installations. And [20:10] this is [20:11] the blind spot. So, stop, you know, So, [20:14] what is he saying here? So, just let's [20:16] hit more of their military sites and [20:17] more of their military sites and then [20:18] we'll stop and see if they want to [20:20] concede. Of course, they're not going to [20:21] want to concede. Let's see where he goes [20:23] from here. [20:23] >> If they do not want to concede, then I [20:26] think you would have another week of [20:29] dual use targeting. And that would mean [20:31] that we're going to bring in the B-2s [20:33] and hit Pickaxe Mountain, seal the areas [20:36] under [20:38] suspicion of harboring enriched uranium, [20:41] hit the bridges, hit some of the power [20:44] grid, and then go home and say to our [20:46] allies, [20:49] "Iran is now mostly inert. They have no [20:52] air force. You in the Gulf, [20:54] you have 600 combat front line aircraft. [20:59] You have missiles. You have missile [21:00] defense. You can defend yourself from an [21:02] inert [21:04] Iran. [21:05] You Europeans, Japanese, South Koreans, [21:09] Taiwanese, you all want to use the [21:11] straight. We don't. But we've cleaned it [21:13] out now, and all you have to do is send [21:16] a couple of vessels each, and under our [21:18] leadership, we always have forces in the [21:20] Persian Gulf. We have frigates, we have [21:23] uh a carrier that rotates in and out. We [21:26] will help you organize uh the ability [21:29] and the willpower to keep the straight [21:32] open. [21:33] >> Now, I actually like this idea [21:35] of, you know, looking at the Saudis and [21:38] the Emirates and and all of these guys [21:41] and all of the other countries to the [21:42] east and saying, "Look." And the [21:44] Europeans and say, "Listen, you have [21:45] military capabilities. The fact that you [21:47] never ever ever use them [21:51] to defend yourselves and just wait for [21:52] America to come in and defend you, [21:54] that's a separate issue. [21:55] But, if you can do great Iran's military [21:58] to dust and then say to them, "Listen, [22:01] it's not even just how wimpy can you be? [22:03] Bring your you have airplanes. You have [22:05] capabilities. Come on in here and defend [22:07] the Strait of Hormuz." Not a bad idea, [22:08] but still, think of what I was saying [22:10] before, it's still a band-aid solution. [22:12] It's still I mean, a short-term What [22:14] does short-term mean? Could it take 10 [22:15] years for them to start rebuilding? [22:17] How long does it take for them to start [22:19] refunding their proxies? How long does [22:20] it take for them? Who knows what they [22:22] have, you know, underground that we're [22:23] not going to have located? [22:25] How long is it going to take for them to [22:27] get more equipment from the Russians and [22:29] the Chinese? [22:31] It just kicks the can down the road. It [22:34] doesn't dislodge the regime from power, [22:36] and that means 20 years from now, 30 [22:38] years from now, 40 years from now, [22:40] I mean, is there another We're going to [22:41] wait for another Trump to come along to [22:42] try to dislodge them from power? Are we [22:44] dooming the world to have the Iranian [22:47] regime in perpetuity? [22:49] This is my problem with this with this [22:50] whole American approach, which is that [22:52] it's about getting the straits opened [22:54] and degrading them and making sure that [22:56] they that [22:58] that Shiite Twelver apocalyptic [23:02] genocidal regime, if we can degrade [23:06] their military capabilities, we solve [23:08] the problem that that regime poses to [23:09] the world. No, we have not. [23:13] No, we have not. [23:15] All right, let's keep going. We'll [23:16] finish up. [23:17] >> And there's not [clears throat] going to [23:18] be It's not going to be difficult [23:19] because Iran has suffered enormous [23:22] damage, and that would be two or three [23:24] weeks. In other words, then he could [23:26] pivot and say that Iran is now [23:28] militarily and nuclear inert, and we are [23:32] back home, and our allies are taking [23:35] part of the burden, and they're keeping [23:37] the strait open. There's one final [23:39] wildcard. Notice something very unusual. [23:43] Iran boast almost every day that it is [23:47] hitting Oman, the UAE, [23:50] Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait. [23:54] The Houthis have even sent missiles into [23:56] Saudi Arabia. These are Muslim nations [23:59] fighting Muslim nation. Iran fighting [24:02] fellow Muslim nations. Persian Muslim [24:05] country fighting Arab Muslim countries. [24:08] What is Iran not doing? It's not [24:10] attacking Israel. [24:12] It's not attacking Israel. Why? [24:15] >> Bingo. [24:16] Bingo. Okay, what's his explanation? Why [24:19] isn't it attacking Israel? [24:20] >> attacking Israel because they know in [24:23] addition to the American effort, if they [24:26] were to attack Israel, Israel has rested [24:31] for the last four and a half months. [24:32] They've restocked their munitions. [24:34] They've got superior intelligence. [24:37] They're infiltrated into the Iranian [24:40] Revolutionary Guard Islamic Guard Corps. [24:43] They're infiltrated into the military. [24:45] They know where these people live. They [24:47] know where they work. They know how they [24:49] travel, and they've been warned that if [24:51] they hit Israel, they're going to go [24:52] after the fourth, fifth, and sixth tier [24:55] leadership, and they're providing [24:57] intelligence to the Americans. So, for [24:59] now, [25:00] seems unbelievable, the Iranians would [25:03] rather attack other Muslim countries [25:06] across the Gulf than tangle with their [25:08] supposed little Satan, their existential [25:11] enemy, Israel. Why? Because Israel has [25:15] obtained overwhelming deterrence. And [25:18] they [25:18] >> Okay, let's let him finish. [25:20] >> They're afraid that if Israel gets in [25:21] the fray along with the United States, [25:24] that they will suffer inordinately and [25:27] may not recover. [25:28] >> It's amazing. It's he's dancing around [25:30] saying the thing without saying the [25:32] thing. Let's be much more precise. [25:35] Israel has a plan to take down the [25:38] regime. As I pointed out, from mid-March [25:40] until April 8th, [25:42] in that original bombing campaign that [25:44] began this war, after the first couple [25:46] weeks, Israel turned its attention to [25:48] degrading the Basij and the IRGC. [25:52] More targeted killings, more hitting the [25:54] checkpoints, hitting the headquarters, [25:55] hitting the training bases of the IRGC. [25:57] We started to see desertions. We were [25:59] reporting on it at the time. [26:02] Israel has a plan. I made another video [26:04] about this last week, where I brought a [26:06] video from from General Amir Avivi, [26:09] talking about how Israel has definitive [26:10] plans of how to actually destabilize and [26:12] bring down the regime. Back then, during [26:14] that fighting, I remember the Israel's [26:16] defense minister saying that when the [26:17] time comes and the Iranian people are [26:19] called back into the street, we will [26:20] provide drone cover from the air for [26:23] them. [26:24] Israel knows how to bring down the [26:25] regime. And that's what the Instead of [26:27] saying, "Oh, it's going to be [26:29] They're going to suffer more if they [26:30] attack Israel." It's now It's a [26:32] It's It's not just [26:34] how much their military will be degraded [26:36] or the bombing that they're experiencing [26:38] now will get worse. It's different. It's [26:40] It's not just [26:41] a different scale. It's of a different [26:44] nature. Israel's entering into the war [26:47] would mean that the regime would [26:49] actually be in danger of being taken [26:50] down because they know that whatever [26:53] Trump is doing, Trump is dancing between [26:55] the raindrops. He's hitting them hard, [26:56] but he's not doing the things you need [26:58] to do to actually take the regime down. [27:02] That's the miss. [27:04] That and so if So So here's what I [27:07] argue. Doing it the way he he [27:09] recommends, let's hit him really hard [27:11] and then if they don't concede, we'll [27:12] hit them really hard some more and we'll [27:13] degrade them so much that we can walk [27:15] away and say look, they're totally [27:16] degraded. And leave it to the locals, [27:19] you know, to control things and to [27:20] defend. In theory, that's a nice idea. [27:23] But it will mean that they will still be [27:25] in power and it will mean that yeah, [27:27] they'll start out weak and that could [27:28] take 10 years or 15 years or 20 years or [27:31] 40 years. These are patient people. They [27:33] don't think in terms of four-year [27:34] election cycles. [27:36] They know that they're they're they're [27:37] facing an existential threat. There's [27:39] only one Donald Trump. They know that [27:41] they they didn't have one for the last [27:42] 47 years and they don't expect another [27:43] one to come after him. So they just know [27:45] this happens to be an existential [27:47] problem for them for their regime, but [27:48] if they can weather the storm and if [27:49] they can stay in power till it's over, [27:51] they will rebuild and that's the blind [27:53] spot. Even the great Victor Davis [27:55] Hanson, they're missing it. [27:58] What the Americans are doing is not [28:00] effective. [28:01] I'm I'm talking about the bombing. The [28:03] economic stuff is very effective. [28:07] Very effective. [28:09] And that could actually bring the regime [28:10] down. So I'm not saying Trump's not [28:11] trying to bring down the regime. I'm [28:13] saying if the calculation is what Victor [28:15] Davis Hanson is saying, [28:17] then it's missing a big piece. It's [28:19] missing the piece of the actions that [28:21] could be taken. And here's the sad part, [28:22] like I said in that video I made last [28:23] week, this war could be over quicker [28:25] with less damage if they took my advice. [28:28] If you start thinking in instead of [28:30] thinking in terms of opening the Strait [28:31] of Hormuz, which you're struggling to [28:33] get open, [28:34] and no one's about to sail a ship [28:36] through there with everyone firing back [28:37] and forth. All this is going on. [28:39] Think about bringing down the regime and [28:41] then and then the Strait of Hormuz is [28:42] open. The regime falls, the Strait of [28:44] Hormuz is open. If the regime falls, [28:46] there's no proxy network anymore. If the [28:47] regime falls, there's no problem with [28:48] ballistic missiles or nuclear. It These [28:51] problems just vanish if the regime [28:52] falls. [28:54] And that's what you need to do. Much [28:56] quicker, [28:57] much less bloody, [28:58] much less expensive, [29:00] but it but it requires a change in [29:01] thinking about what the what the [29:03] objectives are here. Now, before I say [29:05] goodbye to you, [29:07] um [29:08] tomorrow [29:09] Tomorrow is the big day. We're having [29:10] our webinar Are we headed for regime [29:12] change? Israel 365 Action presents Are [29:15] we headed for regime change? What to [29:16] expect from the Middle East with an [29:18] amazing all-star cast of world-class [29:20] experts, Brigadier General Amir Avivi, [29:22] who I mentioned before from the Israel [29:23] Defense and Security Forum, [29:25] Brian Kennedy, uh senior fellow and [29:27] former president of the Claremont [29:29] Institute, Dr. David Wurmser of the [29:30] Center for Security Policy, and [29:32] Lieutenant Colonel Jonathan Conricus of [29:34] the Foundation for Defense of [29:35] Democracies, former IDF spokesman, are [29:37] all going to be joining us in the [29:38] webinar tomorrow. [29:39] Register for this webinar on the link in [29:41] the description of this video, [29:43] israel365.com/regime, [29:45] or [29:47] scan this QR code, [29:49] and uh [29:50] and you could be registered, and you'll [29:51] and you'll get the and you'll get the [29:53] video. And even if you can't [29:55] even if you can't make the webinar live [29:56] at 1:00 p.m. Eastern time tomorrow, 8:00 [29:58] p.m. in Israel, you can you if you're [30:00] registered, you will receive a link to [30:02] watch the full [30:03] webinar after it airs. [30:06] So, make sure not to miss that. [30:08] And with that, I will sign off. [30:10] Thank you for watching. And uh yeah, [30:12] we're at a critical juncture in the [30:13] world. I don't want to sound too [30:14] negative here. I'm not saying that the [30:15] Americans are screwing this up. Don't [30:17] misunderstand me. [30:19] What What they're doing economically to [30:20] me right now is the main thing. [30:23] The main event [30:24] the sound and light show, the fireworks [30:26] show, is the bombing, for sure. That's [30:27] what everyone's reporting on. But I'm [30:29] telling you, [30:30] and and I made a few videos over the [30:31] last week or so about this stuff, the [30:33] sanctions and the and what Scott Bessent [30:35] is doing and how the economy in Iran is [30:37] doing. Go back and find those videos. [30:39] That's the main That's the main thing [30:40] right now because that actually has a [30:42] chance to collapse the regime. [30:44] And the regime can be collapsed without [30:46] boots on the ground, without taking [30:47] Kharg Island, without any of this. [30:50] And that's what America needs to drive [30:51] towards, in my opinion. I'm going to [30:53] keep saying this. I'm sorry if I'm [30:54] repeating myself these days. [30:56] But we're at a critical juncture in this [30:57] in this war. [30:59] And and and I think that it's that it's [31:01] within reach. And we're also starting to [31:03] hear reports now that there are uh [31:05] that there are uh [31:07] that there are some uprisings starting [31:09] to stir, that there were some protests [31:10] in Tehran last week, starting small. [31:12] We'll see where it goes. [31:14] All right, folks. We're going to leave [31:15] it there. Thanks for watching. And uh [31:17] please like, share, subscribe. [31:21] And when I say, you know, please share, [31:22] it really helps. Just just pick one [31:24] person who you think might find this [31:26] interesting. [31:27] Send it to them. Really does a it it it [31:29] does a great deal to help grow the [31:30] channel, and I'm so grateful to all of [31:31] you [31:32] for everything that's happened on this [31:33] channel since we started it back in [31:34] January. It's been unbelievable. We [31:36] started this channel in January, and [31:37] it's got [31:38] and we're up to what, 85,000 [31:40] subscribers, and that really shows that [31:41] there's a there's an audience here, and [31:43] I'm grateful to all of you. [31:44] Thank you. God bless.
