Transcript [00:00] Victor Davis Hansen is one of the most [00:02] important uh public intellectuals of our [00:04] time. He's a military historian, a [00:07] conservative political commentator. He's [00:10] uh the Martin and I Anderson senior [00:13] fellow in classics and military history [00:15] at the Hoover Institution and a visiting [00:17] professor at Hillsdale College. And he [00:20] had a report that he gave the other day [00:23] about where we are in the war. I found [00:25] it interesting. And what I'm going to do [00:26] is I'm going to play it, but I'm going [00:28] to stop it periodically and share my own [00:30] commentary on what he is saying. But [00:33] it's really, really interesting. Here we [00:35] go. Here's what's happening. We are now [00:37] in a theater war with Iran. The [00:40] attention is off Ukraine. [00:43] There has been information that the [00:44] Ukrainians have been helping us with [00:48] drones given their expertise. [00:51] And so they feel that they can do things [00:53] now that the world won't pay attention [00:55] to. And especially because there's been [00:58] a lot of things, I've written some of [00:59] them, that this war, if it should be [01:02] successful, and I think it will be, will [01:04] emasculate Russia for good and China in [01:08] the Middle East. So Ukraine is looking [01:10] at all this and saying, you know, [01:11] they're not going to get really mad at [01:13] me because I'm kind of doing what [01:14] they're doing. [01:15] >> Okay, let me comment on this. Uh, let's [01:17] talk about Russia for a second. We [01:19] haven't discussed them very much in [01:21] terms of this war, but they are a [01:23] player. So, Russia signed a a uh an [01:28] alliance, a defense and security [01:29] alliance, a strategic alliance with Iran [01:32] back in January 2025. That's obviously [01:34] not worth the paper it was written on. [01:36] We haven't seen Russia lift a finger to [01:38] help Iran. Well, let's talk about Russia [01:40] in the Middle East. You know, Victor [01:43] Davis Hansen here points out that we [01:45] might be emasculating Russia completely [01:47] in the Middle East. If you go back to [01:49] before October 7th, Russia's main [01:52] presence in the Middle East was in [01:54] Syria. They had bases in Syria, [01:56] including on the on the coast on the [01:59] northwest coast. They uh they wanted [02:01] access to Mediterranean ports. They also [02:04] uh were responsible [02:06] for a lot of the Syrian air defenses [02:08] that Israel took out in uh in the early [02:10] days after the Assad regime fell. And [02:13] basically in the whole reorganizing of [02:16] Syria, they've been kind of pushed out [02:18] of the picture. Okay? So they had a base [02:21] of power uh and a base of operation in [02:24] Syria there. It's been rendered [02:26] basically useless. And then in the [02:28] 12-day war back in June, when they [02:31] didn't lift a finger to help Iran, then [02:34] it became clear that their alliances [02:36] weren't worth very much. And of course, [02:38] that's continued to play out now, even [02:40] though, you know, Putin cracked me up. [02:42] uh last week when he issued a condolence [02:46] note uh a message of condolences to Iran [02:50] for the death of Ali Kami and in that [02:52] note he said that Russia stands firm in [02:55] its commitment to stand alongside Iran [02:58] you know in strategic partnership which [03:00] of course only shines a light on the [03:02] fact that he's completely not doing that [03:05] and ignoring his own his own agreement [03:08] with Iran in any event. So this is a [03:10] very interesting point that VDH is [03:11] making that this this this u the impact [03:15] on Russia is not just directly due to [03:19] the fact that that the Iranian regime [03:20] that he's been that he meaning Putin [03:23] that Russia has been allied with is [03:25] being degraded but it's also the entire [03:27] Russia China Iran axis that whole [03:31] alliance because these are all countries [03:33] that wanted to take down America. None [03:35] of them are are capable of doing it on [03:37] their own. But that three-way alliance [03:39] of Russia, Iran, China, it's actually [03:41] quite formidable. But with Iran being [03:45] taken off the table as as a force and [03:48] neither China or Russia lifting a finger [03:50] to help them, it's not just that the [03:53] Iran piece is gone, but it's that the [03:55] whole alliance is shown to be a paper [03:57] tiger. And of course, Russia's [03:59] influence, as we as Victor Davis Hansen [04:01] points out, they don't really have a [04:03] base of influence now in the Middle [04:04] East. Syria is not theirs. You know, the [04:06] the patron of Syria right now is really [04:08] Turkey. So, Russia doesn't really have a [04:11] hold anywhere. Also, um the air defenses [04:14] that Iran had that proved to be [04:16] completely ineffective and and easy to [04:19] take out were Russian air defenses. So, [04:22] that also doesn't make the Russians look [04:24] very good. So those are, you know, so I [04:26] think it's interesting that he just [04:27] brings it up without going too deeply [04:29] into it that Russia's position in the [04:32] Middle East is is weakening [04:35] significantly and that's one of the side [04:38] benefits or one of the side plots of [04:40] this war. [04:44] And they would like after they knock out [04:47] Iran, they would like the war to end [04:49] with a viable autonomous Ukraine intact. [04:53] and maybe they can turn their attention [04:54] to Cuba. [snorts] And this is now a geo [04:58] kind of a lukewarm hot cold geostrategic [05:02] war between China and the United States [05:05] and maybe Russia with China at times. So [05:07] they see a window of opportunity to up [05:09] it, but it's a dangerous thing because [05:12] you've got too many things going on in [05:16] the choke points of the world. We've had [05:18] this problem with the Panama Canal we [05:20] had to deal with. We've got Jialter now [05:23] where Spain, our bases right there. The [05:26] Spanish won't let us use these bases, [05:29] NATO bases to operate [05:32] uh against Iran. We've got the Black [05:36] Sea, the Bosphorus, where Russia is uh [05:39] coming, you know, it it that's the only [05:41] way it can get out. And yet, it's at war [05:43] right uh with Ukraine and it's been [05:45] attacking ships and vice versa on the [05:47] Black Sea. Turkey so far has honored its [05:50] commitments and let people come through [05:52] that choke point. We have the straits of [05:53] Hormuz. I never understood why they [05:56] never made a, you know, you have that [05:58] peninsula that juts out from Oman and [06:01] then you have that little narrow. I [06:03] never understood why they didn't make [06:04] sort of a Panama Canal across Oman so [06:07] they would be protected and just make a [06:09] straight shot rather than go up and then [06:11] back right in front of Iran. But Iran [06:14] doesn't have a navy now, but they've got [06:16] a lot of drones and we don't even know [06:18] if they have sea drones or not. So they [06:20] can they can stop. So my point is [06:23] Trump's midterm is iffy if the price of [06:26] gas. He's been tri triumphantly bragging [06:31] that he got the price and justifiably [06:33] so. But when you've got the straight [06:35] surf moves and now you're attacking [06:37] liquid natural gas on the high seas, [06:40] it's going to be I think every he can't [06:43] stop now. But there's going to be [06:44] pressure for him from the bankers and [06:47] the insurance companies and the [06:50] Europeans to say, "Well, you won, but [06:52] you can't right now because you haven't [06:55] quite demilitarized Iran and you still [06:58] have a shot at getting a regime that's [07:00] different than the one there." [07:02] >> Yeah. So, I have a question actually on [07:05] that, but let's take a break and then [07:06] come back and we'll talk a little bit [07:07] more about the war in Iran. Stay [07:11] with us and we'll be right back. [07:14] Okay, this is a good spot for me to [07:16] interject while they're taking a break. [07:17] Anyway, [07:18] so [07:21] what what Victor Davis Hansen just [07:22] talked about about the price of gas and [07:24] the Straits of Hormuz and these various [07:26] choke points and uh Iran attacking [07:30] um you know attacking that it speaks to [07:34] what Iran's actual strategy is. So [07:36] before the war started, I said and I [07:38] wrote a column in the Jerusalem Post and [07:40] I said this both on this channel as well [07:43] as on the Israel 365 news channel. And [07:46] if you're not checking out the content [07:47] we're putting up there, please go do so. [07:48] Very important stuff we're putting up [07:50] there. We just put up a video the other [07:52] day about about what regime change might [07:54] look like. We put up a video about uh [07:56] the impact this is having on China. Uh [07:59] so please check out the Israel 365 News [08:02] YouTube channel, but uh I wrote about [08:05] the the strategy the Iranians are using. [08:08] They don't they know that they can't [08:10] defeat the Americans. Now, I'm not [08:11] saying that they're correct in their [08:13] strategy, okay? I'm not saying that it's [08:14] going to work is what I mean. But I'm [08:16] saying their strategy makes sense. [08:18] Again, the the force of the Americans [08:20] and the Israelis is too overwhelming for [08:21] it to really work and bring them [08:23] victory. But their strategy still now, [08:25] even as it looks like they're just [08:27] getting pummeled and destroyed and [08:29] there's no chance the regime will [08:30] survive, their strategy is to make this [08:33] last as long as possible for it to [08:36] escalate as much as possible for there [08:38] to be maximum chaos in the region so [08:41] that gas prices spike. [08:44] And if there's a spike in gas prices and [08:47] some American casualties and the war [08:49] starts to drag on longer than Trump [08:51] wants, they have a hope of it ending [08:56] with the regime still intact, even if [08:59] greatly crippled and weak. So long as [09:01] they survive, that's victory for them [09:04] because that means that they can keep [09:07] their head down and when Trump gets out [09:09] of office, they can start to rebuild [09:10] things. So that's their strategy. So [09:12] this whole this whole thing of of [09:14] closing the straights of form moves and [09:16] causing a rise in gas prices is [09:20] the purpose of it is to harm Trump. [09:22] Okay, that's actually the way they're [09:24] attacking America is by and that's why [09:26] they're attacking all their neighbors. [09:27] They're not attacking all their [09:28] neighbors because they're stupid or [09:30] because they think that it's going to [09:32] endear them to anyone. They're attacking [09:34] their neighbors because more instability [09:36] in the whole region in all these oil [09:38] producing countries will could cause a a [09:42] sharp rise in gas prices and they want [09:44] this war to hurt Trump politically. [09:47] Okay, so that's that's a big piece of [09:49] the Iranian strategy that Victor Davis [09:51] Hansen is pointing to here. [09:57] >> Welcome back. This is Victor Davis [09:58] Hansen in his own words. Victor is for [10:01] anybody who is new the Martin and Neil [10:04] Anderson senior fellow in military [10:05] history and classics at the Hoover [10:06] Institution and the Wayne Marshabusky [10:08] Distinguished Fellow in history at [10:09] Hillsdale College. You can find him at [10:12] his website victoren.com. [10:14] The name of the website is the blade of [10:16] Perseus. So Victor, I did have a [10:18] question on that. It seems like the war [10:20] is devolving at its center to um [10:24] American and Israeli air power is [10:27] somehow supposed to meet protests on the [10:30] ground and maybe there'll be a a regime [10:33] change and I was wondering what you [10:35] thought about what could possibly [10:37] happen. And then second thing is if you [10:40] could give evaluation of the [10:41] significance of Israel in this war. I [10:44] know it's very significant but I would [10:45] like to hear that you know your [10:46] thoughts. Well, [10:49] the conventional wisdom is that if you [10:52] go to war, especially in the Middle [10:54] East, and you want to change the regime, [10:58] you have to be on the ground. [11:02] I don't quite think that all the [11:03] examples quite fit that. In the 91 war, [11:06] 91 [11:08] first Gulf War, we were on the ground. [11:10] We had a huge coalition. We had a [11:11] million, almost a million there. And we [11:13] didn't change the regime. So, it's [11:14] always a political matter. [11:17] In 2011, [11:20] Barack Obama started bombing Libya with [11:23] the French and the British. They did rem [11:26] remove the regime, but they didn't they [11:28] weren't there to usher in a replacement. [11:31] So, you had tribal warfare. And of [11:33] course, Haikim Jeff just embarrassed [11:35] himself when he said that, you know, you [11:36] needed a war powers resolution to [11:39] conduct war. And the Democrats would [11:41] insist on that. And of course, that's [11:44] not what Obama did. And then he said, [11:46] "Well, it was it was very temporary." [11:47] No, it wasn't very temporary. He bombed [11:50] bomb I think the last day in office [11:53] um in 2017 [11:56] in in January he sent a he bombed a camp [11:59] in Libya. He was bombing bombing [12:01] bombing. So can you remove a regime? I [12:06] think you can remove it. I think the [12:09] point is you not that you can't remove a [12:12] gene regime, but it's hard to remove a [12:15] and then replace it with something you [12:17] want. We had to go in on the ground with [12:19] Maduro. [12:21] So, we'll see. And the $64,000 question [12:25] is, is there anybody on the ground? [12:27] Somebody's on the ground because [12:28] somebody uh I know the Israelis have [12:31] tapped into their uh traffic cameras. is [12:34] they've t tapped in to their [12:36] communications, but they have Mossad [12:38] people all over that country and the [12:41] United States probably does too. We have [12:43] a lot of Iranian expatriots here in the [12:46] country. So, I don't know what the plan [12:50] is as far as the the there is a rough [12:53] division of labor. The [12:54] >> All right. Before we get to the division [12:56] of labor between the Israelis and the [12:58] Americans, uh, on the topic of regime [13:00] change, so I I made a video for the [13:02] Israel 365 news channel about the regime [13:04] change issue, uh, just a couple days [13:06] ago. You can go find it there. It's one [13:08] of the more recent videos. And in it, I [13:11] talk about Trump's recent comments. [13:13] Trump has been touting the Venezuela [13:16] situation as the as an ideal and what he [13:19] would want to see here. And what he [13:21] means is that he took out Maduro, but [13:23] what did he do in Venezuela? He embraced [13:26] Deli Rodriguez, Maduro's number two, as [13:28] the person he's working with. And he [13:30] praised Deli. He's done it now twice in [13:32] the last week, praising Deli Rodriguez [13:35] for being a good steward and a good [13:38] partner there in Venezuela. And that [13:40] that's a model of regime change for and [13:42] he made very good points for because he [13:45] kept the government together. It kept [13:47] things stable. Things did not devolve [13:48] into chaos. However, the dark side of [13:51] that is that the democratically elected [13:55] leader of Venezuela, Maria Karina [13:58] Machado, who won by a landslide and was [14:00] then hunted by Maduro [14:03] and all of the people who were striving [14:05] for democracy were kind of thrown under [14:07] the bus here because um because Trump [14:10] chose to keep the criminal technocratic [14:14] group that was running Venezuela intact [14:17] in the interest of stability. Okay. So, [14:19] there's something to be said for that, [14:21] but there's a big downside. And it looks [14:22] like that's what Trump is gunning for [14:24] here as well. The Israelis don't [14:26] necessarily have the same agenda. And [14:28] that speaks to a bigger question which [14:30] is worth thinking about when you listen [14:32] to the rest of what Victor Davis Hansen [14:34] has to say. And that is that the [14:35] Israelis and Americans while right so [14:37] far since the beginning of the war till [14:38] this point, they've been on the same [14:39] page and they're trying to accomplish [14:41] similar goals and they're working [14:42] together and everyone's saying rah rah [14:44] rah great cooperation. [14:46] There will come a point or there could [14:49] easily come a point. I I'm I'm expecting [14:52] this doesn't have to be, but I'm [14:55] expecting there to come a point where [14:56] the Americans determine that their goals [14:59] are accomplished and they're done, but [15:01] the Israelis are not satisfied or the [15:03] type of regime change that Trump has in [15:05] mind doesn't satisfy the Israelis [15:06] because Trump decides to keep uh you [15:09] know, the top bureaucrats of the IRGC in [15:12] control in the interests of stability, [15:14] Venezuela model, but the Israelis are [15:16] like, "We're not we don't we don't want [15:18] these people there. and the Israelis [15:20] won't feel that the war is done yet. So, [15:22] that's something to look for in the [15:23] coming days uh in light of this. Let's [15:25] let's finish up uh what VDH had to say. [15:29] >> United States is going after all of the [15:33] air defenses. Not that they don't [15:36] overlap, but they're concentrating on [15:38] the missile launchers, the air defenses, [15:42] uh and maybe some government buildings [15:44] that are associated with the re, you [15:46] know, Revolutionary Guard. I think [15:48] Israel has a checklist of all the people [15:52] it wants out and it has better [15:54] intelligence on the ground than we do. [15:56] And I think they are the ones that are [15:58] removing going down that checklist. And [16:01] I think the point they're trying to make [16:03] and whether they have us do it or not, [16:05] that's their emphasis. [16:07] Uh, and I think what they're trying to [16:09] do is say to the Iranians, anybody who [16:12] takes over that has theocratic [16:16] credential is going to be dead. So, you [16:19] can announce that you're the next K&A or [16:22] you can announce you're the next [16:24] Ayatollah or you're the next whatever [16:26] president, but we're It's funny they [16:28] haven't they haven't gone after the [16:31] president. You know, there's certain [16:33] people they don't go after and that [16:35] sends a dual message. It says if you're [16:37] going to moderate and you might want to [16:40] be a transitional figure, you're not [16:41] going to get killed. And they're not [16:43] really going after the officers anymore [16:45] of the Iranian army that don't have u [16:48] theocratic connections. So, we'll see. [16:52] And and the people can't go out yet [16:54] because there's an active war. So, the [16:56] $64,000 question to use that phrase [16:58] again is when they say, "We're going to [17:01] take a pause. Will these people go out? [17:04] And if they go out and the Revolutionary [17:07] Guard unleashes [17:09] Iraqis or Hezbollah killers as they did [17:12] last time and themselves, will there be [17:15] ground support? I don't mean from, you [17:18] know, 20,000 ft. Will they send in [17:20] Apache helicopters or something to help [17:24] the protesters? Then we're in a real [17:26] war. So there's a lot of unknowns. [17:30] >> Um that's that's an interesting point he [17:33] raises. you know, when the protests [17:34] start up again, now that the United [17:36] States and Israel have achieved air [17:37] dominance, it actually means they could [17:39] hover drones over the protests and they [17:41] could just pick off any IRGC guys orbah [17:44] guys that are shooting at protesters. [17:46] So, the protesters could be more [17:48] protected if the Israelis and the [17:50] Americans want that. Um, at the same [17:53] time there you see he he raises that [17:55] issue where the Israelis are picking off [17:57] anyone who's ideologically [17:59] inclined towards the regime and saying [18:02] you're not going to lead this. Uh, so [18:03] the Israelis seem to be going much [18:05] deeper into the regime change [snorts] [18:08] um, scenario than the Americans. The [18:11] Americans actually want some of the [18:14] people near the top to stay intact uh, [18:16] Allah Venezuela. So, I see a bit of a [18:19] collision course coming down the road. [18:21] But a big takeaway from this [18:22] conversation with VDH is it just makes [18:24] you think, wait a second, this is World [18:26] War II. Let's let's be very clear. World [18:29] War II also had different theaters that [18:31] looked like different wars that were [18:33] about different things. the war in the [18:34] Far East, what the Japanese were doing [18:36] to other Far Eastern nations and and [18:39] their fight against Russia over there [18:42] and their fight against China and and uh [18:45] and their fight against the United [18:46] States at Pearl Harbor is very much a [18:49] separate theater with separate dynamics [18:51] and and separate people on different [18:54] sides than what was going on in Europe. [18:56] There was some overlap of course but [18:58] what made it a world war is that there [19:00] were there were some alliances some [19:02] loose some more formalized and you have [19:05] the same thing here you have China [19:07] Russia and you have what's going on in [19:09] Ukraine which is obviously backed by the [19:11] Americans in the west and then you have [19:13] the situation in the Middle East the [19:15] lines of alliances are not necessarily [19:17] so clear-cut but the interconnectedness [19:20] which is what he's pointing to in this [19:21] conversation the interconnectedness is [19:23] very clear uh we have We're in the midst [19:26] of a world war. Uh again, it has [19:29] different theaters and the different [19:30] theaters have different dynamics and [19:31] different things sparked the war in [19:33] different theaters just like World War [19:34] II. But we should make no mistake make [19:37] no mistake about it. There are clear [19:38] sides. Um and uh and Russia is turning [19:42] out to be u they're coming out of the [19:45] short end of all this and it'll be [19:47] interesting to watch their behavior in [19:50] the coming days. All right, I'm gonna [19:52] leave it there. Thanks for watching. [19:54] Thanks for helping grow the channel. [19:56] It's really been it's really been [19:57] remarkable and I'm I'm very grateful to [19:59] everyone who's been sharing and telling [20:00] everyone about what we're doing on this [20:02] channel. And stay tuned to what I'm [20:03] doing here. I think that I'm providing [20:06] some really good up-to-date analysis, [20:09] deep dive analysis of the different [20:11] subplots and different issues that [20:13] surround what's going on in Iran and in [20:14] the Middle East. And uh yeah, again, [20:18] thank you very much. God bless.
