Transcript [00:00] So, this blockade in the Strait of [00:01] Hormuz, we've been talking about it. I [00:02] made a number of videos about different [00:03] aspects of it. And this video is very [00:05] important because it answers the biggest [00:07] question that we haven't really dealt [00:08] with, which is, okay, what does the [00:12] impact of the Strait of Hormuz blockade [00:14] by the Americans look like [00:17] to the Iranian economy? What does that [00:19] collapse of the Iranian economy, that [00:21] choking of Iran, what does it actually [00:24] look like? And uh that's what we're [00:26] going to get into in this video. We're [00:27] going to do it very simply. We're going [00:28] to play a clip of Victor Davis Hanson [00:31] talking about this. He's actually [00:32] talking about an article that he read [00:34] uh that detailed some of the economic [00:37] impact. [00:39] And uh he shared a little bit of his own [00:41] insights. And at a couple of points, I'm [00:44] going to pause uh what he's saying and [00:47] just fill in a few blanks and share a [00:49] little bit of my own um of what I have [00:52] to say about this. But uh here we go. [00:54] So, let's just get to Victor Davis [00:56] Hanson. [00:57] And we will [01:00] and we'll take it from there. Here we [01:01] go. [01:06] Well, I like that article because it was [01:09] uh analytical and empirical. What he was [01:11] saying were certain aspects that people [01:14] had forgotten that [01:16] they are receiving in their aggre- [01:19] aggregate income about [01:22] was it 430 something million a day, [01:24] Jack? [01:25] in oil [01:26] oil oil petrochemicals and [01:30] >> [gasps] [01:30] >> uh Oh, just to say the collective [01:34] economic damage. [01:35] >> Yes, collective damage. [01:36] >> is that 435 million a day? [01:38] >> can see how because there's everything [01:40] they have from their from washing [01:43] machines to tires that has to be [01:46] imported. [01:47] And you can stop everything if you [01:50] control the Strait of Hormuz. And [01:52] everybody talks about, well, they have [01:53] the Caspian Sea or they have a port on [01:55] the other side of the strait like the [01:57] Gulf of Oman. No, they he points out [02:01] that those are very minuscule um areas [02:04] of oil export. The big [02:07] And let me also add that the that that [02:10] uh [02:11] General Keane said yesterday and also [02:14] Caroline Levitt, the uh the White House [02:16] press secretary, said that it's not only [02:19] the Strait of Hormuz that are being [02:20] blocked off, but all Iranian ports are [02:23] being blocked off. Just adding that in. [02:25] enchilada is Kharg Island. Unfortunately [02:27] for the Iranians, it's way deep in the [02:29] Persian Gulf. [02:30] So, [02:31] they came up with the idea they want to [02:33] blockade that, fine. And they say, [02:35] "We're only going to let pro-Iranian [02:37] ships in." Fine. [02:40] But they don't have the wherewithal to [02:41] enforce that. If they send out their [02:43] narcotic-like PT boats, the warthogs and [02:46] them, they can destroy them. If they try [02:48] to [02:49] uh blanket the Gulf states and Israel [02:52] with missiles, Trump will lay the blow. [02:54] He will just take out he will take out [02:57] their dual-use generation and stuff. And [02:59] that will stop that very quickly. [03:01] If So, what Trump basically did, Jack, [03:04] is he said, "Okay, blockade. Hmm, good [03:07] idea, but you're the wrong people [03:08] blockading it. We're going to have a [03:10] blockade, but we're going to borrow your [03:11] idea that it's selective." [03:13] So, we're going to flip it upside down. [03:15] You say nobody but pro-Iranian people [03:17] can come in. We're going to say nobody [03:19] but uh anti-Iranians are going to come [03:22] in. So, any ship and they're going to [03:24] have a problem with China because that's [03:26] 80% of the ships coming in to get the [03:28] oil will be Chinese. [03:29] But they're going to have to turn back. [03:32] That'll be explosive if they try to do [03:34] it. I think eventually Trump will do it. [03:36] And China will get angry and we'll see [03:38] what happens, but [03:40] we have the wherewithal to stop it. And [03:44] a couple of things are going to happen [03:45] as he points out. They don't have the [03:47] storage capacity just to keep pumping [03:51] oil and add it into Kharg Island um fuel [03:55] big fuel storage depots or into ships [03:58] that are idle there. At some point very [04:00] quickly, in a matter of days, [04:02] they're going to fill all those things [04:04] up. As he points out, with oil wells, if [04:06] you just shut them down, [04:09] they have to be maintained and they get [04:11] water seepage and there it's very hard [04:13] and expensive to reboot them. [04:15] So, [04:16] that it's a very intricate process and [04:19] he said they're not going to be able to [04:21] have any petrochemical or oil income cuz [04:24] they're they're not diversified with [04:25] their ports like the Saudi Now, that's a [04:27] very interesting point that oil wells [04:30] are in con- they're constantly running. [04:32] They're constantly pumping. And you [04:34] can't just turn them on and turn them [04:35] off. And if the Iranians can't ship [04:38] their oil out, then [04:41] then [04:42] when the tanks fill up, cuz [04:45] it has to constantly be offloaded so [04:47] that it can keep pumping in. Once they [04:49] fill up and they have to if they have to [04:51] turn off [04:53] the oil, you it's very difficult or not [04:57] difficult, it takes time to ramp it back [04:59] up. And that adds another layer of [05:01] difficulty to the Iranians here. [05:04] Uh [05:06] you know, from this whole situation. [05:07] >> Saudis are are the Emirates. [05:09] And [05:10] he made another good point. I [05:12] I had written about that uh this [05:14] morning, [05:15] uh but I wrote it a couple of days ago [05:17] that [05:18] they don't understand the Gulf. [05:20] They think it's going to be forever 20% [05:23] of the world's oil leaves. [05:26] And therefore they are critical cuz you [05:28] got to go close to their shore that [05:30] they're going to enter. And they just [05:31] keep talking about that. And while [05:33] they're talking, they don't see the [05:34] world is changing and it's changing [05:36] rapidly. [05:37] The Saudis now export most of their oil [05:40] to the Red Sea. [05:42] If the Houthis get orders to stop it, [05:45] well, Trump bombed them for 56 days. And [05:48] he hit the Israelis and the Americans [05:50] can shut down their power, their water, [05:52] everything if they try that. They're [05:55] going to build probably another pipeline [05:57] to the Red Sea. They're talking about [05:59] building building one to cross the [06:00] desert through Jordan to Haifa [06:03] or near Jerusalem. [06:05] They're talking about [06:06] >> Okay, let me [06:07] he's not exactly accurate here. [06:10] Um let me add add in something. So, [06:13] there is a pipeline currently [06:16] um in Israel that uh for oil that runs [06:20] from Eilat [06:21] to Ashkelon. From Eilat to Ashkelon. [06:24] Now, Eilat sits [06:26] on the [06:29] Hold on a second. Is there another [06:30] picture here? No. Eilat sits at on the [06:34] Israeli side of the Gulf of Aqaba, [06:38] which is at the top of the Red Sea. You [06:40] know, let me pull up another map here. [06:42] So, here's Saudi Arabia. Here's Yanbu, [06:45] where the pipe the Saudi pipeline, all [06:48] the Saudi oil that's been diverted [06:50] across to the Red Sea because of this [06:52] conflict, is coming out at the port of [06:54] Yanbu. [06:55] And then what it's doing now is they're [06:57] sending it down through the Bab [06:59] el-Mandeb Strait. But what he's saying [07:02] here is they want to build another [07:03] pipeline up this way. There actually is [07:05] a pipeline. Like I said, there's a [07:07] pipeline right here [07:10] from Eilat up to Ashkelon, [07:13] which is right here. Okay? So, from [07:15] Eilat up to Ashkelon, there is such a [07:17] pipeline. [07:19] And [07:20] uh and this is all part of what what [07:22] could potentially happen with [07:25] Saudi-Israeli normalization is that you [07:28] could have uh a Saudi uh you you could [07:31] have an oil delivery system that [07:33] completely bypasses any unstable [07:36] countries at all. You could have it come [07:38] out here, go up to Eilat, [07:40] and then be or or just make a pipeline. [07:42] You could just make another pipeline [07:44] that goes up and connects with the [07:45] pipeline in Eilat. And that then moves [07:47] up to you know, to Ashkelon. And you [07:49] have ports all along the Israeli coast. [07:52] Okay? That's uh I think what he was [07:54] referring to. Maybe he wasn't being [07:55] precise. [07:57] Um but yeah, that pipeline already [07:58] exists, which means that it's not even [08:01] so far in the future if with [08:04] Saudi-Israeli normalization trade [08:06] relations, you wanted to have oil [08:08] shipped out to the Mediterranean and to [08:10] Europe that way. Okay, let's get back to [08:14] the rest of the story. [08:15] >> about expanding the one that already [08:17] exist in the Gulf of Oman where you [08:19] could get the oil before you got near [08:20] the strait. [08:22] And at the same time, [08:25] they think that nobody will touch their [08:26] oil because it's critical to the world [08:28] price. Maybe maybe not 1 or 2 million [08:31] barrels a day, but Ukraine and Russia [08:34] are talking about a ceasefire. You put [08:35] Russian oil at full capacity on the [08:38] market. You put Venezuela, which is [08:41] increasing every day a little bit, their [08:43] oil output. And Trump says he's going to [08:45] have another million barrels. You could [08:48] say to the Iranians, [08:50] "As long as your regime is in power, [08:51] you're not going to export any oil. Not [08:54] today, not 6 months from now. And the [08:56] world economy would make the necessary [08:58] adjustments." is what the writer is [09:01] saying. [09:02] So, he's basically I think he's [09:04] basically telling us that [09:06] it's a political [09:09] it's a political challenge to Donald [09:11] Trump. They have counted on the left [09:14] to embolden them. So, their strategy is [09:17] to be indulge in a crude stereotype of [09:21] the Middle They want to do a rug deal. [09:23] And they want to barter and barter and [09:26] barter and [09:27] feign anger and back and forth. And they [09:30] want that to draw that out for three to [09:32] four to five months. [09:34] And they want the economy to stall, the [09:36] world economy. And then they want uh the [09:38] left come in and take the house and take [09:42] the Senate and cut off funds and stop [09:44] the war. That's I don't think that's [09:46] going to happen. That's their That's [09:48] their strategy. This is a very important [09:50] point that the Iranians' negotiating [09:52] strategy is always to kick the can down [09:54] the road and make the negotiations go on [09:56] as long as possible [09:58] with the belief, and it's a correct [10:00] belief in terms of how Westerners [10:01] usually think, that as long as there are [10:03] negotiations going on, [10:05] they they're still surviving and they're [10:07] they're still licking their wounds and [10:09] and they can and their goal is is always [10:12] survival and that [10:14] there could be more concessions down the [10:16] road if they continue to feign anger and [10:18] keep negotiating and negotiating. That's [10:19] always what they do. [10:21] Uh the and that's why Trump is always [10:23] setting deadlines for them. Very short [10:25] deadlines. You saw that in the [10:26] negotiations. The original 60-day [10:28] deadline before the 12-day war, which [10:31] then as soon as it was up, the Israelis [10:33] attacked. You had other deadlines now, [10:35] very short, quick deadlines. That drives [10:38] the Iranians crazy because their goal is [10:40] always to prolong things. It's how they [10:42] operate. strategy. But what he's trying [10:45] to argue is that strategy requires a [10:49] quiet population [10:52] that can be intimidated as it is now and [10:54] it but permanently so and it requires [10:57] some economic [10:59] viability to survive and they're already [11:03] can't afford food, they can't afford [11:04] gas, they're under attack, they don't [11:07] they've lost [11:08] probably a half a billion dollars half a [11:11] trillion dollars in weapons and [11:14] infrastructure and the that was accrued [11:16] over 47 years. They can't rebuild that [11:19] and they can't give money to the Arab [11:21] terrorists that they there are three pro [11:23] four proxies, five proxies in Syria and [11:26] Iraq and Lebanon and Gaza and and Yemen [11:30] without angering further the population. [11:33] And as I said in this article, it's one [11:35] thing to tell the population, well, you [11:36] don't like us, [11:37] but we restored the Iranian credibility. [11:39] Everybody's afraid of us. [11:41] We're the terror master and now the [11:44] people are saying, no, you're not the [11:45] terror masters of the Middle East. [11:47] You're a paper tiger. You're buffoons. [11:50] They've wiped you out. We're going down [11:52] the toilet with you. This is what you [11:54] did. Nobody's afraid of you anymore. [11:57] You're a bunch of clowns. That is fatal [11:59] to a dictatorship, to be humiliated and [12:02] to be an object of ridicule. [12:04] So, he he points all of that out, [12:07] I think quite successfully, as did [12:09] Michael Doran, who always has important [12:11] things to say. [12:12] Uh he says seven myths about the Iranian [12:16] war. So, [12:17] I guess [12:18] to sum up, the left is in a bubble [12:21] and it [12:23] it it's all frenzy because Trump is [12:26] under such criticism by Tucker Carlson [12:29] or Megan Kelly or Candace Owens and they [12:32] say, oh, the mega movement's blowing [12:33] apart and [12:35] everybody's saying it's lost. [12:38] And they don't look at the situation. [12:41] You know, they don't look at the actual [12:43] it's the most asymmetrical war in memory [12:46] and Trump can adjudicate when it starts [12:48] and when it ends. [12:50] And if he wants to take up the Iranian [12:53] challenge, I'll it'll be very [12:56] interesting when American warships go [12:58] through there and they completely de [12:59] mine de mine the area this week and [13:02] tankers follow them and they start to [13:04] bring in those little mosquito boats and [13:05] see what happens. I think you'll see a [13:08] whole fleet of warthogs in the air and [13:11] they will blast them out of the water [13:13] and I think they will hit any missile [13:16] within two or three minutes, they'll [13:17] know where it was launched, they'll take [13:18] that out [13:20] and [13:21] and but they're not going to stop there. [13:23] They're going to tell them, okay, [13:25] you're broke now. You've got $400 [13:27] million in economic damage plus per day. [13:31] Wait till you don't have any power. [13:33] And that and that will really shake up [13:36] things. And somebody said, well, that [13:37] would be [13:38] that would be inhumane. Well, then talk [13:40] to Bill Clinton because he shut down the [13:42] power power grid at Belgrade almost [13:45] for a day or two every week he did. [13:49] And talk to Barack Obama. He shut down [13:51] television stations in Libya. He shut [13:53] down the ports. He tried to do a lot of [13:55] stuff, which he said he didn't do. So, [13:58] there's a long tradition of dual-use [14:00] targeting. [14:02] Okay. Uh the last thing that I want to [14:04] say about this has to do with what he [14:06] said [14:08] about Tucker Carlson, Candace Owens, [14:10] Megan Kelly and the left painting this [14:12] caricature of Trump and I want to show [14:14] you what the Iranians are doing with [14:15] that before we go on. [14:17] Please make sure to click the link in [14:18] the description of this video. [14:21] We'll just pull it up here. [14:23] Um to subscribe to Israel 365 News daily [14:27] newsletter [14:28] um and the Israel 365 Action weekly [14:31] newsletter that'll keep you up to date [14:32] and informed on news analysis from [14:34] Israel from a conservative [14:38] and [14:39] and biblical perspective. It'll also [14:41] give you [14:42] information about programs and and [14:45] you know, exciting [14:47] um webinars and and uh [14:49] and everything that we're putting out at [14:51] Israel 365 Action and you can really [14:54] join the fight to defend Western [14:55] civilization and and get involved in [14:58] that. You might want to also check out [14:59] Israel 365action.com, but just sign up [15:01] here for the newsletter and it'll keep [15:03] you it'll keep you really plugged in to [15:04] everything that we're doing. Okay. So, [15:06] what I wanted to show you is that in in [15:09] in the in Iranian state media, they've [15:11] recently started leaning in to the [15:14] messaging [15:16] uh that that America is controlled by [15:19] Israel. So, look at this look at these [15:21] two items. This one was on the front [15:25] page yesterday and this one and then on [15:27] the same day they also released this [15:28] one. So, here we go. The one on the [15:29] front page yesterday, Netanyahu's shadow [15:32] over Trump. [15:34] A fracture between US power and policy. [15:37] In recent days, a growing debate has [15:38] taken shape across American American [15:41] political and media circles over the [15:43] extent of Benjamin Netanyahu's influence [15:45] over Donald Trump's decision-making, an [15:47] argument that has moved beyond elite [15:49] analysis into public discourse and [15:51] social media. Unfortunately, this is [15:52] true. All the [15:55] you know, that that whole side of the of [15:57] the spectrum and it's not he kept saying [15:59] leftists, [16:00] but you know, having this caricatured [16:02] view of things, [16:03] but it's unfortunately it's not the left [16:05] unless he's considering Tucker Carlson [16:07] and Megan Kelly all of them left, which [16:08] is a whole other conversation. [16:11] Um but you have it on the right and [16:12] people like Steve Bannon and and Tucker [16:15] and and and Candace and Alex Jones and [16:18] all of them screaming about Israel [16:20] first. It's more than them. It's it's [16:21] it's a big unfortunately, it's a it's [16:24] it's a sizable segment of the MAGA [16:26] movement is screaming about how [16:29] America's become Israel first and how [16:32] Trump is controlled by Netanyahu. So, [16:35] the Iranians are leaning into this [16:37] because by leaning into that and by [16:38] echoing that language, they're [16:41] they're actually and it's working. If [16:43] you look on social media, they're [16:44] getting these guys in America to be more [16:48] sympathetic to the Iranian position [16:50] because the Iranians are echoing their [16:52] own language. [16:54] Right? Analysts have portrayed Vance as [16:56] a figure with limited decision-making [16:58] power. [16:59] You know, all the stuff that you know, [17:00] that the that the the isolationist right [17:03] wants to hear. [17:04] Uh and they say here, in this regard, [17:06] analysts such as John Mearsheimer have [17:08] described the current situation as [17:09] strategic deadlock for Trump. [17:12] He emphasized that the United States is [17:14] simultaneously facing two major [17:15] challenges, Iran, which appears to hold [17:17] the upper hand in the conflict and [17:18] Israel, which according to this view, [17:20] may be preventing Washington from [17:22] exiting the crisis even at the expense [17:25] of US national interests. [17:28] Okay? [17:29] Uh so, that's that's that story. And [17:31] then they have this story. Ghalibaf, US [17:34] must adhere to agreements and abandon [17:36] Israel first policy. Now, that phrase [17:39] Israel first was coined by by Steve [17:42] Bannon and those others in that in that [17:44] in that group like you know, Kurt Mills [17:46] from the American Conservative [17:48] and and Tucker Carlson and the rest of [17:50] them. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the [17:51] speaker of the Iranian parliament, [17:53] issued a statement via social media [17:55] calling for the United States to fulfill [17:56] its diplomatic obligations and shift its [17:58] regional priorities. In a post on X, [18:01] the speaker emphasized that the United [18:03] States must comply with established [18:05] agreements and urged Washington to move [18:07] away from what he described as the [18:09] Israel first mistake. Ghalibaf further [18:12] underscored the strategic bond between [18:14] Tehran and regional movements stating [18:16] that Iran and the resistance share a [18:17] unified stance. Okay, that's the whole [18:19] story. In other words, abandon Israel [18:22] first. They're leaning in to the [18:25] language and the and the and the [18:27] messaging of those voices in America who [18:31] want who are opposed to the war [18:34] and therefore getting more sympathy from [18:37] that wing of the Republican Party. [18:39] That's what they're doing. [18:41] It's all a desperate attempt to survive, [18:43] but the main upshot of this video [18:45] is is is how the economic warfare [18:49] actually ends up looking. That you know, [18:52] he laid it out really nicely there. The [18:54] amount that that Iran is losing every [18:56] day and the strain the rapid strain that [19:00] it's going to put on their economy and [19:01] the inability to play their normal game. [19:03] Their normal game in negotiations is to [19:05] kick the can down the road and drag it [19:07] out, but as Victor Davis Hanson pointed [19:09] out, [19:10] they can't really do that here because [19:11] with the economy being strangled, you [19:13] can only drag out and drag out and drag [19:15] out negotiations if you if if you're if [19:17] at home domestically, you're not also in [19:20] this crazy pressure cooker. But because [19:22] the economy is being strangled, they [19:24] don't have the luxury of dragging out [19:26] and dragging out negotiations. So, the [19:30] the blockade has a double effect. It has [19:32] the effect of actually strangling the [19:34] economy and potentially bringing the [19:35] regime to its knees, but it also has the [19:37] effect of accelerating the negotiations, [19:40] which is exactly what the Iranians don't [19:42] want. They want to slow them down. Okay? [19:45] That's a very important point. Um please [19:48] let me know what you thought [19:49] of this video. [19:51] Drop a comment below. I try to read as [19:52] many comments as I can. I'm shutting [19:54] down for for the weekend, so Shabbat [19:56] Shalom to everyone. Have a great weekend [19:59] and uh let's keep uh you know, let's [20:01] keep in touch and keep following what's [20:03] going on. Keep Keep your eyes glued to [20:05] this channel. I'm trying to give you as [20:06] in-depth uh [20:08] and and clear analysis and coverage of [20:11] this war and everything else going on in [20:13] the Middle East as I can. And I really [20:15] appreciate uh the way this channel has [20:17] grown and that's due to all of you. So, [20:19] keep liking and sharing and and getting [20:21] people to subscribe. And if you haven't [20:23] subscribed yet, please do so. And God [20:25] bless.
