Transcript [00:00] Hey everybody. So, where is Trump really [00:03] on this whole Iran thing? You know, it's [00:04] been it seems like he's been going back [00:06] and forth and at one point when theou [00:08] came out, oh no, he, you know, he's [00:10] totally flipped. I want to take a look [00:12] at that whole issue of where of where [00:14] Trump's policy is going through the lens [00:17] of a clip, a short clip, a few minutes [00:19] of Victor Davis Hansen. I'll stop the [00:22] clip a few times during it and insert my [00:24] commentary there and we'll try to make [00:26] sense of everything that is going on [00:28] that way. Okay. So, let's uh pull it up [00:31] on stage. Let me get it up here. [00:34] Here we go. [00:37] Victor Davis Hansen and play. [00:40] >> So, Victor, I know you wanted to talk a [00:42] little bit more about Iran. We did talk [00:44] yesterday, but there was things that [00:46] came up. So, go ahead. [00:48] Well, I think we're learning from Marco [00:50] Rubio um and commentators [00:55] that the [00:58] memorandum of understanding and the idea [01:01] that for 60 days you were going to [01:03] negotiate with this regime was [01:04] impossible. In other words, it doesn't [01:08] really matter who was playing bad cop or [01:10] good cop. They presented a face. The [01:14] elected officials said basically we are [01:17] moderates now and we want to be [01:19] reasonable and we agreed to your demands [01:22] but we have these revolutionary guard [01:25] corps and we have the theocracy and we [01:28] don't know what to do with them. Is that [01:30] the true representation of what happened [01:32] or were they getting huddling together [01:34] and saying looking at you guys? You give [01:36] a you give the moderate face. Then every [01:39] time you know we we want to hit [01:43] something, you deplore it and then you [01:45] say, "What are we supposed to do? We [01:47] have problems with these people too." [01:48] and then drag it out and we'll get close [01:50] to the midterms and then we'll get the [01:52] price of gas up and we'll get the [01:54] Europeans and the Asians mad at Trump [01:57] and we can get him out of office and [01:59] then we can deal with the kind of people [02:00] that we've dealt with in the past like [02:02] Obama or John Kerry and that's what we [02:04] want. So I think that's now the [02:07] consensus that that's what they were [02:09] doing and I think everybody knew it [02:10] along. I think no one JD Vance is a [02:13] wonderful vice president, but when he [02:15] said there were moderates and they were [02:16] working with him in a new that that was [02:18] mistaken, [02:20] Jack. [02:22] >> Okay, he said a lot here. So, let's [02:25] unpack some of what he what he's talking [02:27] about. Um, you know, first of all, I was [02:29] reminded of this clip from uh from about [02:32] 3 weeks ago when theou first came out. [02:36] Shortly after theou came out, Trump was [02:38] at the G7. Take a look. There's some [02:40] element to this where you send the vice [02:43] president. [02:44] If it works out, great. You look like a [02:47] genius for sending him. And if it [02:49] doesn't work out, it's the vice [02:51] president. [02:51] >> I like that idea. Sure. What? This way. [02:54] If it works out, I'm going to take the [02:55] credit. If it doesn't work out, I'm [02:57] blaming JD. You better be careful, JD. [03:00] He's going to turn his plane around and [03:01] get the hell out of here. Yeah, I like [03:03] that idea. I think it's a good idea. [03:06] >> Okay. All right. There's Trump. But on a [03:10] more serious note, and and it could be [03:11] that he was that there was some truth to [03:12] it. And that's what I want to talk about [03:13] here. You know, Victor Davis Hansen just [03:16] said in the clip that we saw right [03:17] before I played the Trump clip that he I [03:21] think everyone knew it all along that [03:23] you can't negotiate with these people. [03:25] And that's what I want to get into. But [03:26] first, let's read this piece from The [03:27] Hill. Uh and this is uh it's from a few [03:32] days ago [03:33] u from two days ago. Former Trump [03:35] staffer Vance set up as fall guy for [03:38] Iran deal. Caroline Sunshine, who served [03:41] as an aid to President Trump during his [03:43] first term, suggested Thursday, this [03:45] past Thursday, that Vice President Vance [03:47] was set up to take the blame for the [03:49] failed memorandum of understanding [03:50] between the US and Iran. Quote, I think [03:52] we know why JD Vance was set was sent [03:55] out to go sell theou and at the time, [03:57] Marco Rubio was nowhere to be found. [03:59] Sunshine, also a former Disney Channel [04:01] star, said during an appearance on CNN [04:03] News Night. She noted Vance gave a [04:06] string of media interviews to sell the [04:07] deal after it was released to the public [04:09] last month, appearing on The View, HBO's [04:11] Real Time with Bill Maher, and a podcast [04:13] by the New York Times, among other [04:14] programs. JD Vance was doing interview [04:16] after interview after interview, going [04:18] out and selling the deal, and Marco [04:19] Rubio was like, "What? DJing a wedding [04:22] or something?" thing she said he was [04:23] nowhere to be found because now as we've [04:25] now seen Vance I think was set up to be [04:28] you know the fall guy for this [04:34] uh and then it talks about how theou has [04:36] unraveled [04:38] okay [04:39] so let me talk about this for a sec [04:42] uh now before you before I go on before [04:44] I talk about this I want to remind [04:46] everyone about a very important upcoming [04:47] event and I want to clarify something so [04:50] we're doing this webinar this fantastic [04:52] webinar uh is going to be on Monday, a [04:55] week a week from today, Monday the 20th [04:58] of July at 100 p.m. Eastern, 8:00 p.m. [05:02] in Israel. But listen carefully. Someone [05:04] wrote in the comments and he's [05:05] absolutely right. Hey, that's a terrible [05:07] time in America. It's in the middle of [05:08] the workday. You're right. Well, there's [05:11] good news. 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Let's go back to what [06:45] we're talking about here. Um [06:50] right. So, so we have this piece in the [06:51] Hill that's talking about, you know, how [06:52] JD Vance was, you know, the fall guy. [06:54] Now, I don't think that's exactly right. [06:56] This is a person giving their analysis. [06:57] They're a former adviser, whatever. But [07:00] reading between the lines, here's what I [07:01] think happened, and I think it's the [07:03] most logical. It's along the lines of [07:05] what Victor Davis Hansen said. Remember [07:07] when theou was signed and everyone was [07:10] like, "What on earth is this?" I I [07:11] remember I made videos and I was like, [07:12] "This is crazy. These 14 points are [07:15] exactly what the Iranians it's an [07:17] Romanian wish list. It's like everything [07:19] it's like giving into them. It's like [07:21] giving into all of their demands and [07:22] it's what they published on their [07:24] Iranian uh state media and everyone [07:26] thought that it was so extreme. It's [07:27] like you're giving into all their [07:28] demands. How could it possibly be that [07:30] that that Trump changed his policy so [07:32] much?" And of course, Trump stood behind [07:34] it and you know, and JD Vance was out [07:36] there defending it. Within a couple [07:38] days, Marco Rubio was on a plane over to [07:42] um over to the Gulf and he had a meeting [07:45] of all the Gulf States and the [07:48] declaration that they made at the end of [07:50] that meeting walked back some stuff in [07:51] the MOU. Now, they didn't say that it [07:53] did. They sort of claimed that it didn't [07:54] really walk it back, but what it did was [07:56] it brought back in the issue of the [07:57] ballistic missiles and the funding for [07:59] the proxies. And it it said under known [08:01] uncertain terms that you know that that [08:03] that you know could Iran or anyone else [08:05] have any control over the state of [08:06] Hormuz which is where which is what I [08:08] meant when I said it walked back part of [08:09] theou because theou does concede [08:13] uh Iran's uh control over the state of [08:16] Hormuz. it actually does in in that [08:19] clause and we were all just like wow you [08:22] know look at Marco Rubio is doing the [08:23] damage control and then we have the deal [08:25] that Marco Rubio brokers in Lebanon [08:28] which which completely undid clause [08:30] number one of the of the memorandum of [08:33] understanding and it was a little like a [08:34] little bit confusing but here's what I [08:36] believe took place [08:38] now that we look at also how Trump has [08:40] been talking how's Trump been talking in [08:41] the last few days especially since the [08:43] NATO summit in Anchora and including at [08:44] the NATO summit he's been saying listen [08:46] he can't talked to these people. Um, as [08:49] far as I'm concerned, the ceasefire is [08:50] over. That's what he's been saying. [08:51] Theou is over. As far as I'm concerned, [08:53] it was complete waste of time. And he [08:55] made a comment in Ankora at the uh NATO [08:58] summit about Witoff and Kushner. And he [09:01] said, you know, they're good guys. They [09:02] want to keep talking. If they want to [09:03] keep talking, they can keep talking. But [09:04] I think it's a waste of time. Here's [09:07] what I think happened. I think there's [09:09] this faction [09:12] Vance Kushner Witkoff that believe that [09:15] there's someone to talk to and that they [09:16] could cut a deal and that Trump basic [09:19] basically looked at them and said you [09:22] guys want to cut a deal go for it. And [09:25] the other side was saying no it's it's [09:26] never going to hold. They're never going [09:28] to keep it. And Trump basically looked [09:29] at everyone and said listen we need [09:30] quiet now anyway. Let's do this. Cut a [09:34] deal. [09:37] give them whatever they want. Let's see [09:39] if they open the streets of Hormuz. I [09:40] don't believe it's going to work. I [09:41] don't believe they're trustworthy. I [09:42] don't think that it's going to work. But [09:44] you want to try it? We'll stand behind [09:45] it. We'll, you know, we'll defend it. [09:47] Let's go down that route and see how it [09:49] works out. And sure enough, it's all [09:52] falling apart. That's what I think is [09:53] happening. Let's go back to uh Victor [09:55] Davis Hansen. He has more to say. Uh he [09:58] has more to say on these topics. So, [10:00] let's uh let's go back to him again. [10:05] >> [snorts] [10:07] >> Keane uh pretty much has been accurate [10:10] all the way through when he said and [10:13] he's been a supporter of the Trump plan. [10:16] So what's the strategy now? It's for the [10:19] >> and there he was just saying that Jack [10:20] Keane has been correct because Jack [10:21] Keane has been saying all along that any [10:23] deal with these people is a waste of [10:25] time. So now he's just saying that Jack [10:27] Keane has turned out to be correct. [10:28] >> Short term to see how gas prices react. [10:31] It's hit them disproportionately, 10, [10:34] 20. He's up that now. He the other day [10:36] he said 10 10 times. Now he says 100. [10:39] But we can do enormous amount of damage. [10:41] And I don't know why we had not hit that [10:43] rail bridge that would knock out all [10:45] trade uh to China. It's a long distance. [10:48] They have to go through various [10:49] countries. But they were getting [10:52] weaponry uh from China and they need to [10:55] hit the Caspian dock work so that they [10:58] can't import things from Russia, i.e. E [11:01] weapons. I think they need to go back in [11:04] with [11:05] >> and we did see that they hit that uh [11:07] that railway bridge the other day in the [11:10] north that Russia was using to ship [11:11] things into Iran. [11:12] >> B2s and hit pick mountain there. And [11:16] anything that you see activity there [11:19] with the B2s and if they have I don't [11:22] know if they have a supply of bunker [11:23] busters. They're very hard to to [11:25] develop. There's only a finite amount. [11:28] And then um [11:31] they are taking out systematically the [11:33] mosquito fleet. It's very expensive to [11:35] do that with expensive rockets on these [11:38] little motorboats, but they need to keep [11:40] doing that. At some point, I think he [11:42] has to unload if they he gets the right [11:45] pretext or causation if they really [11:48] start sending what missiles they have [11:50] left. We don't know how many missiles [11:52] they have. They don't they seem to be [11:54] able to have volleys of six or seven. We [11:56] don't know if they're making them or [11:58] importing them from China or what. Um [12:01] but if they continue, he needs to unload [12:04] on them and and then destroy the [12:08] military nuclear industrial complex of [12:10] that regime and take out the [12:13] transportation hub and then leave leave [12:18] at least 60 days to 90 days before the [12:20] midterm. And as I said the other day, [12:23] leave a vestigual naval command and [12:26] force, not too expensive, 10 or 12 [12:29] ships, a rotating carrier, and tell the [12:32] Europeans and tell [12:34] South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Australia, [12:37] etc., give us one ship or two ships [12:40] each, and let's just blast through and [12:42] keep this open. But we're not we don't [12:45] need to have it open. That would be a [12:46] magnanimous gesture on our part. And I [12:49] also thank Brian Kilme whom I like and [12:52] know a little bit. And [12:53] >> okay, hold on before we get to Brian [12:54] Kilmade's comment that he's going to [12:56] mention here. [12:58] He just laid out something actually very [13:01] I think it's a very good analysis of [13:03] what Trump might actually be thinking [13:05] and it tracks well with what we're [13:06] seeing. You see, both both President [13:10] Trump and the Iranians are each one of [13:13] them has a delicate game that they're [13:15] playing on their side with time and [13:16] escalation. Let me explain. For Trump, [13:20] here's here's where he's caught. [13:24] He wants to keep gas prices reasonable [13:26] slash low through the midterms. Make [13:29] sure that that doesn't upset the apple [13:31] cart, that that doesn't harm his his [13:33] chances in the midterms. On the other [13:35] hand, [13:37] on the other hand, [13:39] um, you know, he [13:42] he's got to keep the Straits of Hormuz [13:44] open and that requires [13:46] that requires military activity, which [13:48] the Iranians are making sure of. The [13:50] Iranians, that's part of the Iranian [13:52] strategy of shooting at boats in the [13:54] street of Hormuz to provoke the [13:56] Americans to get retaliation so that [13:57] there could be an escalation. [13:59] Okay. So, [14:03] so Trump's, so there's got to be an [14:05] escalation [14:07] and Trump's hitting them 20 times as [14:08] hard. But what's he doing? He's hitting [14:10] them in ways that are designed to open [14:12] the straight of Hormuz [14:16] to get it open so that there's a free [14:18] flow of oil but not not going after [14:22] pulling down the regime completely not [14:24] going after civilian infrastructure [14:27] regime targets as such but managing the [14:30] escalation so that it again it keeps the [14:32] straits of Hormuz open maybe deters the [14:34] Iranians is the hope degrades them but [14:38] doesn't go all the way because that [14:39] could upset things for the midterms. On [14:40] the other hand, you got to do all this [14:41] this escalation right now [14:45] to degrade [14:47] Iran around the straits of Hormuz [14:50] has to be done early enough. He's saying [14:52] hit them hard, but do it early enough so [14:55] that you still have 60 to 90 days ahead [14:58] of the the midterm elections. [15:01] So you want escalation right now in the [15:03] short term, but not too much escalation [15:05] that it causes a spike in oil prices [15:07] that could last, but enough escalation [15:09] that it really degrades the Iranians and [15:11] that that you can then quiet it down [15:13] after you do massive damage to them so [15:15] that you have a quiet period before the [15:17] before the midterms. Meanwhile, the [15:19] Iranians also are in this delicate [15:21] balance where they're trying to escalate [15:24] because they can't let the straight of [15:26] four moves be completely open because [15:27] then they've surrendered their major [15:29] piece of leverage. They want to show [15:30] that they have control of the straight [15:31] of war moves, but they don't want to [15:32] disrupt things so much know they want to [15:35] escalate because if it's quiet, that [15:37] helps Trump. Their number one goal right [15:39] now is that Trump lose in the midterms [15:40] because when they look strategically [15:42] really downrange long-term, the biggest [15:45] gain they could make in this war, the [15:46] biggest turning point for them that [15:48] could lead to their survival as far as [15:49] they see it is Trump getting uh Trump [15:53] losing in the midterms. [15:55] So they want things to be if things are [15:58] too quiet [16:01] then then Trump then then the American [16:04] voter is happy. So they need escalation [16:05] but they don't want too much escalation [16:07] that it leads to [16:10] that it leads to damage that they can't [16:11] sustain. Meaning there there's this it's [16:14] an interesting game of chicken. [16:17] He suggested that the [16:20] the era of Kish Kushner and Witoff has [16:23] now run its course to have special [16:26] envoys going back and forth in Ukraine. [16:29] And one of the reasons he said that is [16:32] that somebody who deals with Iran must [16:36] have intricate knowledge of how that [16:38] regime functions and thinks over 47 [16:41] years. And the problem with business [16:44] people is they [16:46] um they deal with entities in a whole [16:49] different context. They don't go back [16:51] and look at the history of 50 years of [16:53] this company or this CEO. They just do [16:55] it in the here and now. And they think [16:57] everything is transactional. They don't [17:00] understand radical Shia theocratic [17:02] ideology. And so I think Marco Rubio has [17:05] people in that State Department, which [17:07] is completely different than Joe [17:08] Biden's, that know that. And I think his [17:11] team should be negotiating. I I agree [17:13] with Brian on that. [17:16] >> Okay, it's a very interesting point what [17:17] he says from Brian Kilme. So I want to [17:19] show you a few things. So this is from [17:21] uh two days ago, three days ago. Vance [17:23] Witkov Kushner in contact with Qatar [17:26] over Iran diplomacy. Vance Witkov [17:28] Kushner. There they are. US President [17:30] JD, US Vice President JD Vance, special [17:32] envoy Steve Whit and Jared Kushner have [17:36] been in contact with Qatari officials [17:37] this week as part of diplomatic efforts [17:39] related to Iran. CBS News reported [17:41] Friday citing a source familiar with the [17:43] discussions. The report said the context [17:45] came as Qatar, Pakistan and other [17:47] mediators sought to ease tensions [17:49] following the recent escalation between [17:50] the United States and Iran though it was [17:52] unclear how much progress had been made. [17:53] And then the next day [17:56] Vance Rubio Witoff and Kushner notice [17:58] Rubio's now in there to skip aman talks. [18:01] US Vice President JD Vance will not [18:03] travel to Aman while Secretary of State [18:05] Marco Rubio Steve Whit and Jared Kushner [18:07] will not take part in the talks there. [18:09] Okay. Um, and you know, I think there's [18:12] a good analysis here in Israel Hayam [18:15] from last week. The message from Witoff [18:18] and Kushner that led to the renewed [18:20] strike on Iran. And this is that this is [18:22] uh talking about when the strikes [18:24] renewed last week, this is this piece is [18:26] uh is about is about 5 days old. The US [18:29] strikes overnight between Tuesday and [18:30] Wednesday from last week were [18:31] accompanied by opposition and debate [18:33] within the administration between the [18:36] Vance Witkov Kushner camp and [18:38] secretaries Hexith Bessant and Rubio [18:41] along with CIA director John Radcliffe. [18:43] The dispute reflects the core of the [18:45] American dilemma over how to manage the [18:47] problematic situation that has emerged, [18:49] namely the violations of the agreement [18:51] alongside the renewed sanctions and [18:53] concern over full closure of the [18:54] straight of Hormuz. [18:56] And then Trump ordered strikes. Now [18:59] Trump's decision to launch a strike came [19:01] after envoys Witkoff and Kushner [19:03] reported that the Iranian negotiating [19:04] partner foreign minister Abasarqi had [19:07] said that he could not guarantee that [19:09] the IRGC would not continue firing on [19:12] ships and tankers crossing the street of [19:13] Hormuz. [19:15] The statement effectively ended the [19:17] attempt to reach an understanding with [19:18] the with the IRGC over a temporary lull [19:21] in the morning period for Ali Kamay etc. [19:26] imports to Iran had resumed, mainly food [19:28] and and medicine, but industrial [19:30] equipment intended to repair damage, but [19:33] also industrial equipment intended to [19:35] repair damage from the war. Meaning the [19:36] blockade's been lifted. Iran doesn't [19:38] want to have the blockade come back. So, [19:40] they're also like that's part of their [19:41] delicate game. As I talked about before, [19:43] the longerterm outlook remained [19:45] pessimistic [19:46] with officials determining that there [19:48] was a low probability of reaching a full [19:50] agreement between Iran and the US on [19:51] ending a war on ending the war. So, and [19:54] then it talks about Trump's various [19:56] options that he has. He could reinstate [19:59] the blockade. He could put back [20:01] sanctions where I think he has announced [20:04] the return of sanctions today. Uh [20:08] so the the W the end of the Witco [20:12] Kushner would also be the end of Vance's [20:14] approach here. Um, and I think again I [20:17] think now that I think about it in [20:19] retrospect, piling on President Trump [20:21] for theou was so premature and and we [20:24] should have we you know I I I even did [20:27] advocate for some patience and some you [20:29] know you know uh let's calm down. But I [20:32] think when we really look back on it and [20:33] how things where things are now that I I [20:36] think my read is accurate that President [20:38] Trump basically said to the guys who [20:39] wanted to make a deal, he wanted quiet [20:41] anyway. He says listen you guys want to [20:43] go ahead and make a deal. Go ahead. you [20:45] make whatever deal you want, I'll stand [20:46] behind it, but if it falls apart, it [20:49] falls apart. Like, give it a shot. Go [20:51] for it because we need quiet anyway. [20:53] Knowing full well, Trump is is uh he he [20:57] I think he knew full well that it would [20:59] not hold. And therefore, he didn't he [21:01] had no problem give, you know, promising [21:04] Iran whatever they wanted if they would [21:05] just open the straits of Hormuz because [21:06] this is a way to show look, you see, [21:10] they never meant it anyway. Um so [21:16] um [21:18] yeah anyway yeah so it was just [21:19] announced earlier today that uh the [21:22] blockade is back on and I think that [21:24] this only confirms what we're talking [21:26] about here. Let's watch just a little [21:27] bit more of Victor Davis Hansen. [21:30] It seems that um from Trump's [21:33] perspective, if I were Trump, that you [21:36] would need to [21:38] I would just ask the military, you [21:40] neuter those people as best possible in [21:42] the next few weeks so that then we can [21:45] sit on it until after the election. [21:47] >> I think that's the plan. [21:48] >> Yeah, it seems like [21:50] >> that's the plan. I think that is the [21:51] plan. And I think they [21:54] they don't understand Trump that he's [21:57] he's fluid. He's trans transactional. [21:59] He's p unpredictable. He's predictable. [22:03] He's mercurial. He's calm. But they [22:07] don't know what he's going to do. But if [22:09] you push him long and hard enough, he [22:11] will do something. And he's at that [22:13] point now. [22:14] >> Okay. [22:17] >> And on that note, we'll just end with [22:18] this quote. My favorite clip of [22:21] President Trump. This is from before he [22:23] was ever elected president, before he [22:25] was even the Republican nominee. This is [22:26] from April of 2016. more than 10 years [22:29] ago now, giving his first ever full [22:33] foreign policy address in April of 2016. [22:37] And there's just this few seconds that [22:39] are amazing. He's talking about dealing [22:40] with enemies. And then there's ISIS. I [22:44] have a simple message for them. Their [22:47] days are numbered. I won't tell them [22:50] where and I won't tell them how. We must [22:56] [applause] [22:59] We must as a nation be more [23:02] unpredictable. We are totally [23:04] predictable. We tell everything. We're [23:07] sending troops, we tell them. We're [23:09] sending something else, we have a news [23:11] conference. We have to be unpredictable. [23:15] And we have to be unpredictable starting [23:17] now. [23:20] >> That is a keeper of a clip, isn't it, [23:22] folks? You take that clip when you're [23:25] talking about Trump and people are [23:26] saying he's erratic and unpredictable [23:28] and you're talking to all your friends [23:29] about that. Make it clear to them this [23:32] is not Trump's not all over the place. [23:34] He's not chaotic. He knows what he's [23:35] doing. The unpredictability [23:38] is by design. It is a doctrine. All [23:41] right. Uh I hope I made some sense of [23:43] things. At least give you a report where [23:44] we stand right now. But I think take a [23:46] deep breath and take a look at where we [23:48] are. It is a dangerous game as we get [23:50] closer to the midterms and how to manage [23:52] that escalation properly and what's the [23:55] best way to bring down the regime. I'm [23:56] getting more and more convinced that the [23:58] best thing is just economic strangle [24:01] strangulation. [24:03] Bring it down. Especially if you haven't [24:04] seen my video about the Iranian economy [24:06] that I made yesterday, you got to watch [24:07] that video. Um let's fasten our seat [24:10] belts. This story is far far from over. [24:13] All right. God bless.
