Transcript [00:00] Okay, we're going to talk about uh [00:02] what's going on with the Iran war. And I [00:04] I mentioned something at the end of one [00:06] of the videos I made yesterday that I [00:07] want to expand upon a little bit more [00:09] about the the um the game of chicken, as [00:13] I call it, that is being played right [00:15] now between the Iranians and uh and [00:17] President Trump [00:19] and a couple other issues related to the [00:22] war. And I want to uh frame this with a [00:27] with a clip of Victor Davis Hansen. And [00:30] I'm going to pause the clip a couple [00:32] times and talk about it. At the end of [00:34] the clip, he also talks about JD Vance. [00:35] And maybe we'll, you know, we'll spend a [00:37] couple minutes on that issue as well. [00:40] So, kind of like a an update on a few [00:43] things related somewhat related to each [00:45] other. All right, here we go. Uh let's [00:47] start with Victor Davis Hansen. Here we [00:49] are. So, in news on Iran this week, [00:54] there is I just wanted one thing and it [00:56] might not take you long to address, but [00:58] there were leaks from the government [01:01] that there was a depletion of our [01:04] weaponry to fight Iran with. And then if [01:08] you have anything, the [01:11] Trump is talking about there's a new [01:13] deal with Iran in the works. I know your [01:15] audience is thinking, yeah, that's not [01:17] going to pan out. But if you have [01:19] anything on that and then also tales of [01:22] JD and BB Netany and Yahoo not getting [01:25] along. [01:26] >> Well, to go first very quickly, [01:29] people have been leaking that there are [01:31] not enough Patriot missiles for example [01:34] or [sighs and gasps] [01:36] harpoon missiles, older ones, tomahawk [01:39] missiles, um [01:42] not enough [snorts] sensitive the most [01:44] sophisticate. We've heard there are not [01:46] enough bunker busters. I don't know if [01:48] any of this is true, but [01:50] [sighs and gasps] [01:50] it's been leaking. Um, and the problem [01:53] why Trump is so angry are is we have [01:57] enough. We have about 40 or 50% likely [02:00] of our arsenal, which is too low. This [02:02] been going on for a long time. Obama cut [02:04] the defense budget. Biden did, and we [02:09] don't have enough stuff. But the problem [02:12] that makes people angry are we have [02:14] enough to [02:16] uh handle Iran. [02:18] We don't have enough to handle Iran, [02:22] give the Ukraine enough to protect Kiev [02:27] and then detour China from attacking [02:31] Taiwan. So the more you say that and [02:34] leak it, the more likely China might [02:37] believe it and want to try. why we're [02:40] engaged with Ukraine and Iran. They [02:42] might want to try to see if they could [02:45] go into Taiwan and we wouldn't have [02:46] enough missiles. [02:48] Well, that also speaks to the [02:51] possibility that China, rather than [02:55] saying, "Hey, this is a good time to [02:56] invade Taiwan," [02:58] might simply want to prolong the [03:01] hostilities between Iran and the United [03:04] States to continue to deplete uh [03:06] American resources and distract America. [03:09] Um, and in terms of the the threat that [03:12] that that the Chinese might see this as [03:15] a good opportunity to attack Taiwan, I [03:18] think it's even more likely that they're [03:20] going to wait and see how this whole [03:21] thing plays out. There's I think the [03:24] Chinese are very carefully watching the [03:28] uh the the American public and how [03:32] opposed they are to military [03:35] intervention abroad and you know asking [03:38] themselves the question does that also [03:40] translate to Taiwan because the [03:42] administration the Trump administration [03:44] has has done and I spoke about this with [03:47] Dr. Worms yesterday. If you go to the [03:49] Israel 365 news channel, there's a new [03:51] conversation with me and Dr. David Worer [03:53] that was just posted yesterday. And he [03:54] made a very interesting point that, [03:58] you know, Trump talking all the time [04:00] about how well things are going and how, [04:02] you know, we don't really need the [04:04] strait, which is true. America doesn't [04:05] really need the straight for its oil, [04:07] but you know, uh, you know, and we [04:09] destroyed their nuclear, you know, we [04:11] obliterated it. [04:14] It it all I understand why he does that, [04:16] but it also doesn't really make the case [04:20] to the American people. Why are we still [04:21] there and what are we doing and what is [04:22] the national interest? What is the [04:24] long-term national interest? [04:26] And I should also add in taking off [04:30] taking regime change off the table, [04:32] which happened pretty quickly on the [04:34] first day of the war. I've mentioned [04:35] this many times, on the first day of the [04:36] war, Trump was talking about regime [04:38] change. He didn't state it as a as a as [04:41] a military objective that must be [04:43] achieved, but he he talked about regime [04:44] change in the speech that he gave on the [04:46] opening night of the war. He talked [04:47] about creating the conditions for the [04:49] regime to fall and for the Iranian [04:51] people to achieve their freedom. I even [04:53] think that the message of of bringing [04:55] freedom to the Iranian people is [04:56] something the American people could get [04:58] behind. But since the administration uh [05:00] is allergic to talking about regime [05:02] change, but also talks about how we [05:03] don't really need the straits and we've [05:05] destroyed the the nuclear, you have this [05:08] this this combination of of messages [05:12] that actually makes it an even bigger [05:15] question for Americans. Why are we [05:16] there? And I think this speaks to the [05:18] fact that the administration has not [05:19] done a great job of selling the American [05:22] people on the interest and what the US [05:26] interest is here. And this this brings [05:28] us back to Taiwan. Is the American [05:30] people sufficiently knowledgeable to [05:33] understand why Taiwan is a US interest? [05:35] It certainly is. And you know, I think [05:38] the Chinese are watching very carefully [05:41] uh you know, this doesn't contradict [05:42] anything Victor Davis Hansen said, but I [05:44] think the Chinese are watching very [05:45] carefully [05:47] to determine what is the US resolve and [05:51] you know, how how far is the US willing [05:53] to go in a kinetic conflict. [05:57] That's the worry. Um [06:01] the second thing about [06:04] uh Trump and the the Iran war, we've had [06:07] five or six of these where he says we're [06:10] going to the negoti negotiations are [06:12] going great and then they break down and [06:15] then he hits them once or twice and then [06:17] they beg him beg him beg him to get back [06:20] and then everything's close to an [06:22] agreement but the Iranians don't tell [06:24] the truth and then he gets frustrated [06:27] and the problem with this is that [06:30] on February 28th [06:33] the you know we had 250 days before the [06:37] midterms. So this after 38 days of [06:41] kinetic operations we stopped. We [06:45] stopped because about 80% of 90% of [06:47] everything they had was destroyed. [06:50] But we didn't know that they had these [06:53] little mosquito boats hidden everywhere. [06:55] And we didn't know to what degree they [06:58] had drones and missiles hidden. And they [06:59] had a lot. [sighs] So when we kept [07:02] saying we're destroying 90% of the air [07:04] capacity as far as missiles and drones, [07:06] we didn't know what the denominator was. [07:08] We didn't know 90% of what 10,000 20,000 [07:12] could be a lot 10%. [07:15] And so we got they started threatening [07:17] the Gulf. At that point the Gulf freaked [07:20] out and they had wanted us to go in [07:21] there and eliminate Iran. But now that [07:23] they got hit, they didn't want to commit [07:26] with their 600 aircraft and join us [07:29] because they thought we we we wouldn't [07:31] take them out completely. [07:33] That's such a key point. That's such a [07:36] key point. [07:38] At the very beginning of the war, it was [07:40] reported by the New York Times [07:43] uh and others, but initially by the New [07:45] York Times that the Saudis had actually [07:47] been pushing the United States to go for [07:50] it and take down the Iranian regime and [07:52] the UAE was on board with that as well. [07:55] They're certainly not there anymore. [07:58] And I think that this goes back to what [08:01] I said about regime change. when it [08:04] looked like where epic fury and roaring [08:07] lion on the Israeli side was going was [08:09] the downfall of the regime and that is [08:11] what it looked like in the initial weeks [08:13] of the war. Let's let's bring ourselves [08:15] back there. It's not just that we He's [08:17] talking about the percentage of their [08:19] military we destroyed, but it's much [08:20] more the real critical piece. What [08:23] really led the Iranian regime to panic [08:25] and and uh and beg for a ceasefire [08:29] initially, well, beg through the [08:30] Pakistanis to get them to beg for a [08:32] ceasefire at the time was that the [08:35] regime was being brought to the point of [08:37] collapse. And the main thing that was [08:38] bringing it there was what the Israelis [08:40] were doing, knocking out the IRGC, [08:43] knocking out regime targets, continuing [08:45] with decapitation strikes. The [08:47] decapitation strikes of the top [08:48] leadership did not stop after the first [08:50] after the opening strikes on day one. [08:52] Ali Kamayi, the supreme leader being the [08:55] most notable. It kept going. I remember [08:57] specifically there was a very powerful [08:59] person named Ali Larani who [snorts] was [09:02] one of the top people in the regime. [09:05] He's he's who we'd be negotiating with [09:06] now if he was alive. And the Israelis [09:08] took him out a couple weeks into the [09:09] war. And the Israelis continued doing [09:13] the things that it takes to actually [09:14] bring down the regime. So when [09:18] ever since that ceasefire went into [09:20] effect, all of that stuff has ended. And [09:22] all none of that has ever been brought [09:24] back. Even with all of the strikes the [09:26] Americans have carried out, they have [09:28] not brought back those actions that will [09:30] actually weaken the regime. As I've said [09:32] many many times, going after the IRGC, [09:35] going after the besiege, creating the [09:37] conditions on the ground where the [09:38] people can come out to protest. Those [09:40] are the things that were happening in [09:41] the closing days and weeks before the [09:44] ceasefires. It wasn't just about [09:45] percentage. Uh it it was about the fact [09:48] that the that the regime was really on [09:49] the verge of collapse and so long as it [09:52] looked like the Americans/Israelis [09:56] were actually going to go for for the [09:58] full collapse of the regime. [10:01] So the attitude of the Gulf States was, [10:03] listen, if you're actually going to go [10:04] the distance, then go for it and let's [10:06] be done with them. But if you're not [10:08] going to finish the job and you're not [10:10] going to take out the regime, then we [10:12] have to deal with them long term. [10:15] And that's when they and that's when [10:16] they get skittish and they start looking [10:18] to of ways of saving the regime because [10:20] they, you know, of of propping it up [10:23] because they don't want to be all out [10:27] adversaries of the regime right now. if [10:30] when the dust settles on all of this and [10:32] when Trump is out of office, the regime [10:34] is still in power. They don't want to [10:35] have to deal with that. [10:37] So, the the Gulf States got more [10:40] skittish about what the Americans were [10:42] doing because the Americans showed a [10:44] lack of resolve about bringing down the [10:45] regime. That's what he's saying here. [10:49] So, then people came to Trump, I guess [10:52] this week, and said, "You're out of [10:54] time. We're only 90 days. If you're [10:55] going to got to solve this and you can't [10:57] keep saying this because so last week [11:01] they dreamed up we're just going to [11:03] unload greatest military campaign in the [11:06] air since World War II. we're going to [11:09] bomb the duel and they were and then [11:13] that panicked Iran and they say now [11:16] they're going to open the straight of I [11:18] don't think you can trust them but the [11:20] point is they got the message that now [11:23] he this was the last chance so if they [11:26] >> I don't think that assessment is correct [11:28] first of all I don't think it panicked [11:29] Iran when Trump threatened this massive [11:32] attack I think it panicked the [11:34] Pakistanis I think it panicked the Turks [11:36] I think it panicked the Qataris I don't [11:38] think it panicked around. I don't They [11:40] don't look to me like they're panicking. [11:42] Um maybe it did, but it doesn't look [11:45] like it to me. U I think they knew that [11:48] if as soon as they would say, "Oh, okay. [11:50] Well, you know, we're willing to talk. [11:51] We'll open the straits." I think they [11:52] knew that that would mean that Trump [11:53] would back off, and they've been [11:55] stringing him along. [11:57] Um and uh yeah, so I don't think I don't [12:00] think it panicked I don't think it [12:02] panicked them. Um and uh like I've said [12:05] many times, they're not interested in a [12:06] deal at all. They're interested only in [12:09] prolonging negotiations. I have a little [12:12] bit more to say on this point because I [12:14] think we're in an interesting game of [12:16] chicken which I'm going to describe in a [12:18] minute. I think it's a this is the main [12:19] point I wanted to make in this video. [12:21] We're getting up to it. Break this and I [12:24] think they will. Trump will have no [12:26] choice to have any credibility unless he [12:29] continues with that with that program. [12:32] And your third [12:33] >> Yeah. Okay. So, he's talking about how [12:36] how in order for Trump to retain his [12:37] credibility, he's going to have to [12:39] actually follow through. And this goes [12:42] back to the China point. You know, if if [12:44] if Trump ends up kind of looking for an [12:47] off-ramp, leaving the Iranian regime in [12:50] power, allowing a situation where the [12:52] Iranian regime can credibly declare, I [12:55] wouldn't call it victory, they'll call [12:57] it victory, but they could credibly say, [12:59] "We survived. We were resilient. We [13:02] survived the American onslaught." they [13:04] couldn't take us down. It will make [13:06] America look weak. It'll weaken America [13:08] all over the world. And you could hate [13:10] this war as much as you want, but once [13:12] you're in it, you got to finish the job. [13:14] And that's this is where this is the big [13:16] problem right now. Now, with all of [13:18] that, this uh this clip of Victor Davis [13:21] Hansen was before this Axio story [13:23] dropped the other day, [13:26] uh which I want to I want to show you. [13:29] Uh Trump to Axios. We are lowkeying it [13:32] with Iran. I mentioned this yesterday. [13:33] This is from yesterday. President Trump [13:36] signaled on Sunday that he's prepared to [13:37] allow economic pressure on Iran to mount [13:39] as opposed to ordering new military [13:41] offensive even as the country continues [13:43] to defy the US. [13:46] He says, "We're only semi-negotiating [13:48] with them. We're just watching Iran with [13:50] a huge with its huge inflation and the [13:53] fact that they have no money." He [13:55] stressed that Iran is in very bad shape [13:56] economically and has no money to pay its [13:58] troops. The US naval blockade has [14:00] exacerbated the Iranian regime's [14:01] economic crisis, Trump said. At the same [14:04] time, Trump said that with oil down [14:06] slightly over $75 a barrel, the US [14:09] consumers are feeling less pain from the [14:11] war. It'll work out. It always works [14:14] out. It's like a game of chess. Okay, [14:15] let me let me give you my take on this. [14:19] So, I talked about this a little bit [14:20] yesterday. So you see in this in this [14:23] interview with Axios in this Axios [14:24] piece, Trump is saying that, you know, [14:27] I'm content to just sort of like let the [14:29] economic stuff do its job. Meaning, [14:30] let's hold the blockade, let's hold the [14:33] sanctions, let's hold the frozen assets, [14:35] let's prevent, you know, Iran can't [14:36] really sell their oil. They're suffering [14:38] financially. Yeah, they have some [14:39] overland trade routes, but it's not [14:41] enough to make up for what they're [14:42] losing. And with every passing day, [14:44] they're getting weaker and weaker and [14:46] weaker and closer to collapse with their [14:47] inflation and their economy a disaster. [14:50] That's his point. And Trump, of course, [14:52] also points to the price of oil. Now, on [14:55] the Iranian side, look at what they're [14:57] emphasizing. This is from Iranian state [14:59] media today, a couple hours ago, Iran's [15:02] conditions for reopening the straight of [15:04] Hormuz push oil prices higher. This is a [15:06] story about how what Iran has demanding [15:10] now because remember Iran we covered [15:12] this yesterday that Iran uh came back uh [15:16] uh on on Saturday and said that they [15:18] have six demands for the opening of the [15:20] street of Hormuz and they're not demands [15:22] that America could you know can match [15:23] and they include things like uh um [15:26] America committing to u to you know to [15:30] paying reparations for the war which [15:32] which would be ridiculous. America is [15:34] not going to pay them reparations and [15:36] removing American uh military assets [15:39] from the region and of course lifting [15:41] the blockade and lifting the sanctions [15:43] and unfreezing their assets. This is [15:44] these are all the demands that they're [15:46] making, right? They they made these six [15:47] demands, but look at what they're saying [15:49] here. This is a story about how the very [15:52] fact that they publicize these demands [15:54] is causing a surge in oil prices. Right? [15:58] Uncertainty over the future of the [15:59] straight of Hormuz and continued [16:00] regional tensions have pushed global [16:02] energy markets higher. [16:04] Um, [16:06] oil prices resumed their upward trend on [16:08] Monday. Oh, right. I'm sorry. They even [16:10] mentioned Trump, reversing the temporary [16:12] decline in oil prices that followed the [16:14] optimistic remarks by Trump and a drop [16:16] towards $77 per barrel. Oil prices [16:19] resumed their upward trend on Monday, [16:20] today, August 10th, amid ongoing [16:23] concerns over the reopening of the [16:24] strategic waterway. According to market [16:26] data, Brent crude, the international [16:28] benchmark, rose 1.2% to 84.58 [16:32] per barrel. Uh meanwhile, US- West Texas [16:34] Intermediate crude increased by 1.1% to [16:37] 79.28 [16:39] per barrel. So, this is about how [16:44] the Oh, wait. Right. And then they bring [16:45] up what the Houthis are doing. Sorry. At [16:47] the same time, recent attacks by Yemen's [16:48] Houthi movement on Saudi energy [16:50] infrastructure have further intensified [16:52] concerns over the security of oil supply [16:54] routes. Analysts have warned that [16:56] simultaneous disruptions or risks [16:57] affecting two major energy corridors [16:59] straight of Hormuz and Babandab Strait [17:01] could further increase pressure on [17:03] global oil supplies. CNN also pointed to [17:06] a 34.6% rise in gasoline prices in the [17:09] United States. Great. This is what [17:11] they're emphasizing. They're emphasizing [17:12] the fact that oil prices are moving up. [17:15] You see Trump in his interview is [17:16] emphasizing the fact that oil prices are [17:18] coming down. [17:24] You know what we have here is the [17:28] following game of chicken. And I talked [17:30] about this yesterday, but I want to just [17:32] make it clear. [17:37] Both the Iranian regime and Trump and [17:40] the Trump administration [17:46] believe that time is working in their [17:49] favor [17:50] but also are managing the risk involved [17:56] with that. Let let me explain what I [17:58] mean. From the Iranian perspective, [18:02] I believe that they have made the [18:03] following calculation. [18:07] While it's true that with every passing [18:09] day of this blockade and their frozen [18:12] assets and they and their inability to [18:14] sell their oil and all of the economic [18:17] hardship that is being placed on them by [18:19] the Americans, by what the Secretary of [18:22] the Treasury Bessant is doing [18:26] that with all of that, their economy is [18:28] suffering. We all hear about the [18:29] hundreds of millions of dollars they're [18:30] losing every day. They they are willing [18:33] to absorb that because they believe the [18:36] calculation they've made is that they [18:38] believe that they can still remain in [18:42] power [18:44] past the midterms. [18:46] and that if they can remain in power [18:48] past the midterms, [18:51] it is better for them to drive a hard [18:53] bargain to not make a deal to keep oil [18:57] prices as high as possible [19:00] both through actual actions and through [19:02] declarations. Like just like like look [19:04] at this story, the story that I just [19:05] showed you. They say the fact that we [19:08] made these six demands caused a spike in [19:10] oil prices. like they're emphasizing [19:12] that actions they're taking are causing [19:14] spikes in oil prices. That oil prices [19:15] are moving in the wrong direction for [19:17] for you know for America [19:20] because the worst thing they could do [19:23] is make a deal [19:26] even if it means getting financial [19:27] relief, getting the blockade lifted, [19:30] getting their assets unfrozen. if they [19:32] were to make a deal that would [19:36] that would give them some breathing room [19:38] financially, give them some cash, but [19:42] the tradeoff would be that the straits [19:44] of Hormuz would be open. Oil and oil [19:47] prices would drop precipitously, that [19:49] would give Trump a domestic political [19:52] win. If Trump could turn around to the [19:54] people and say, "Look, oil prices are [19:56] back in, you know, the Hormoo Straits [19:57] are open. Oil prices are down at a [19:59] reasonable number." If Trump can do [20:02] that, the Iranian regime looks at that [20:04] and says that's more damaging to us [20:07] because of the possibility that Trump [20:09] wins in the midterms and is strengthened [20:12] and has more political capital [20:15] for this, you know, for whatever actions [20:17] he's going to take against us in the [20:18] future. We need to keep this war as [20:20] unpopular as possible, make the pain as [20:22] bad as possible for Trump so that in the [20:24] midterms he gets he gets hurt. That's a [20:26] more important strategic goal than [20:29] getting money. But it's a bit of a race [20:31] against the clock, right? It's a race [20:32] here that on the one hand they want to [20:35] drag things out because for the reasons [20:37] I just mentioned about how it hurts [20:39] Trump. And that's the real that's the [20:40] main strategic goal they have right now [20:43] is is is weaken Trump, make him into a [20:47] lame duck or as close to it as possible. [20:50] That is where that's what they're trying [20:52] to accomplish. The problem is that in [20:53] trying to accomplish that, they're [20:55] dragging things out and not making a [20:56] deal, which means that they don't have [20:58] financial relief. Okay, that's that's [21:00] how time is both working for them and [21:02] against them. Okay, and in those in [21:05] balancing those two those two concerns, [21:09] the long again, the longer it goes on, [21:11] the more the financial pain is felt by [21:13] the Iranians, the more they can't pay [21:15] their people and that destabilizes the [21:17] regime. But if we can stay in power, if [21:21] even with all of that pain, we can [21:22] withstand it and keep oil prices as high [21:25] as possible, make this as painful as [21:27] possible, keep making a fool of Trump on [21:29] the negotiating stage, and get this [21:31] through to the midterms so that Trump [21:32] doesn't have a political win because we [21:35] can't make a deal and give him a [21:36] political win and allow him to do well [21:38] in the midterms. That would be a [21:40] disaster for the Iranians. They can't [21:41] allow that. [21:43] So, if we can string them along and keep [21:45] this going and keep oil prices high [21:47] until the midterms and and and cause it [21:49] and cause them to lose in the midterms [21:51] and we're still in power, that's the [21:53] ultimate win because we didn't lose [21:55] power. [21:57] We didn't the regime didn't fall and [21:59] we're now dealing with a weaker Trump. [22:03] Maybe very maybe much weaker Trump after [22:06] the midterms. We hurt him. That's the [22:08] goal right now. Now, let's go to the [22:11] American side. The Americans also they [22:13] look at the time thing on the one hand [22:15] you see what Trump just said in this [22:16] Axios piece. What is what did Trump say [22:18] here? That we're what did he say? [22:24] He said we're lowkeying it. We're only [22:26] semi-negotiating with them. We're just [22:28] watching Iran with its huge inflation [22:30] and the fact that they have no money. [22:32] Iran is in very bad shape economically. [22:34] Has no money to pay its troops. The US [22:36] naval blockade has exacerbated the [22:37] Iranian regime's economic crisis. So [22:40] what Trump is looking at, and then he [22:41] says, "Oh, it'll work out." What Trump [22:43] is looking at is saying, "Well, I don't [22:44] even need to hit them with with bombs. [22:47] If we just hold if we just keep this [22:49] economic strangle hold on them with [22:51] every passing day they're getting [22:52] weaker, eventually they're going to [22:54] collapse." Meaning, he sees time on his [22:58] side from that perspective. On the other [23:00] hand, time is also not on his side from [23:03] the perspective of pol of domestic [23:05] politics and of the price of oil [23:07] domestically and what that's going to do [23:09] in the midterms coming up. So for both [23:13] Trump and the Iranians, [23:16] they look at the at this current [23:21] situation [23:23] being dragged out as both a possible [23:27] advantage and a possible disadvantage. [23:30] And then it's a question of what is more [23:34] valuable. [23:35] And this is where [23:38] I this is where I think the Americans [23:40] are not reading the Iranians correctly. [23:44] Um JD Vance said the other day they're [23:45] desperate to make a deal. Trump always [23:47] says that they're not. I don't believe [23:50] they are. I think that they they there's [23:52] a real risk for them in making a deal in [23:55] giving a win to Trump in bringing down [23:57] the price of oil. And that could and [23:59] that and and if that means that Trump [24:01] would win in the midterms, that [24:03] strategically is far more damaging to [24:05] them than any than anything that America [24:08] could do to them. Uh because they're not [24:10] trying to bring down the regime. Once [24:12] the Americans signal that they're not [24:14] trying to bring down the regime, once [24:15] they called off the Israelis from doing [24:18] the things that the Israelis were doing [24:20] and and have been very clear that they [24:21] don't want to bring down the regime, and [24:22] you can also see from their actions that [24:24] they're not trying to bring down the [24:25] regime. Once they did that, once the [24:27] Americans signaled that, that was a big [24:30] tell for the Iranians to be able to do [24:32] the, you know, play the games that [24:33] they're playing right now. Um, let's [24:36] watch a little bit more of uh actually, [24:39] you know, we could stop this one here. [24:40] We don't have to talk about JD Vance in [24:41] this video. I'm going to leave that. Um, [24:44] just one more just one more point I'm [24:46] going to make in this video because uh [24:47] because the JD Vance stuff is a totally [24:49] different topic. Um, I just want to [24:51] share this with you. This is from [24:52] Tasnim, the IRGC uh uh news outlet. It's [24:57] their their uh you know, this is where [24:59] they put out their messaging. Iran links [25:01] Hormuz reopening to end of US blockade. [25:04] And here they're being very clear. The [25:05] spokesman for the Iranian foreign [25:07] foreign ministry, Bakayi, said the [25:09] street of Hormuz will not reopen as long [25:10] as US maintains its naval blockade [25:12] against Iran, stressing that Washington [25:14] must end and make amends for its [25:16] destructive actions. [25:19] Okay. So, they're they're driving a [25:21] harder and harder and harder bargain. [25:23] Um, they're not moving in they're not [25:25] moving in a more consiliatory direction. [25:27] They're driving a harder and harder [25:28] bargain [25:30] um with this because I think it has to [25:32] do with that game of chicken that I just [25:34] described. Now, one last thing before we [25:36] go. Um, I want to make sure that you are [25:39] signed up for the webinar. We have a [25:42] very important webinar coming up this [25:43] coming uh this coming Sunday, a week [25:46] from yesterday, August 16th, 2026, 2 [25:49] p.m. Eastern time, 9:00 p.m. in Israel. [25:51] Um Mamani's New York City, a warning to [25:54] America, incredible panel, former mayor [25:56] of New York, Rudy Giuliani. Uh the uh [26:00] the brilliant young commentator and [26:02] writer Shabas Kenbam from Prageru. Uh [26:06] the great author Robert Spencer and [26:09] founder of Jihadwatch. and Rabbi Daniel [26:11] Shambach who is a therapist and an [26:14] activist in the New York area. He's also [26:16] got a very successful YouTube channel. [26:18] You should definitely be following him. [26:20] And he's been at the forefront of the [26:21] anti-Mani campaign uh and protests uh [26:25] and demonstrations that have been going [26:26] on in New York and and working on behalf [26:28] of the Jewish community there in [26:29] Brooklyn. So, he's going to be with us [26:31] as well. It's going to be a very [26:32] important conversation about Mam Dani's [26:35] New York. So, make sure you're [26:37] registered. If you can't make the time, [26:38] don't worry about it. is when you're [26:40] registered for the webinar, you will [26:42] automatically get an email to your inbox [26:44] right after the webinar airs that where [26:46] you could watch the full thing uh on [26:49] your own on on your own time. So, you [26:51] don't have to be available at that time [26:53] to to register for the webinar and be [26:56] able to watch it. So, go ahead and do [26:58] that. You can click the link in the [26:59] description of this video or go to [27:01] israel365.com/mdani [27:04] or you can uh you can scan the QR code [27:06] that is on your screen right now. And [27:08] those are all ways that you can register [27:10] for this very important u for this very [27:13] important webinar. [27:15] Anyway, that's my take on where we are [27:16] right now uh on u on the Iran war. I [27:20] think, you know, it's it's interesting. [27:22] It's getting kind of dangerous for [27:23] Trump. Uh because you could, you know, [27:25] drop a comment. Let me know what you [27:26] think in terms of this game of chicken. [27:28] Uh who is time working more in favor of? [27:31] I think the Iranians are are uh are [27:34] really gaining from this uh because they [27:37] again their calculation is stay in [27:39] power. As long as we can still be in [27:42] power after the midterms, we're better [27:45] off keeping the price of oil high and [27:47] harming Trump because that will put us [27:49] in a better strategic position at that [27:51] time. They think long range and uh I [27:54] think that's where things are right now. [27:56] All right, thanks for watching. God [27:57] bless.
