Transcript [00:02] Hey everyone, there's a story that's [00:03] been developing over the last couple of [00:06] weeks [00:07] that I think is one of the most [00:08] important subplots of the war and it's [00:10] not been getting nearly enough attention [00:12] and involves Oman. [00:14] And it involves Iran and it involves a [00:17] fight over who controls the Strait of [00:19] Hormuz. Let me lay out exactly what's [00:21] happening. Some of this you have [00:22] certainly heard of in the headlines. So [00:25] Iran has been publicly claiming [00:28] through its state media and its foreign [00:30] ministry that it has plans together with [00:34] Oman [00:36] to jointly manage [00:39] the shipping through the Strait of [00:40] Hormuz that they've been negotiating [00:42] this. Iran's foreign minister, Abbas [00:44] Araqchi, personally announced this. [00:46] Iranian state media has been pushing [00:47] this story aggressively. [00:50] Iran's ambassador to France told [00:52] Bloomberg and that's what made it go all [00:54] over the place. So it's not exactly a [00:56] rumor, [00:57] but it is official Iranian government [00:59] messaging. Again, they have one of their [01:00] ambassadors saying it, they're putting [01:02] it in their state media. Here, let me [01:03] show you an example of that right here. [01:07] Um, what you have [01:09] they come right out and say it, Iran and [01:11] Oman move toward establishing permanent [01:14] toll system in the Strait of Hormuz. [01:15] That's Iranian state media. So they're [01:17] claiming it [01:18] loud and clear, [01:20] but at the same time Oman is denying it. [01:22] Oman is saying that that's not what's [01:24] happening. They've told that to the [01:26] Americans. We saw that in this story [01:28] here where Scott Peterson spoke to the [01:30] Omanis and Oman assured the US it has no [01:33] plans to toll the Strait of Hormuz. [01:36] Okay. [01:37] So Oman has not confirmed any joint [01:39] control arrangement. The Omani [01:40] government [01:41] uh, has said that they're no, no, no, [01:43] no, no, it's not happening. That [01:44] whatever Iran is saying is not true. [01:47] And then there's Trump, right? Trump at [01:49] a cabinet meeting [01:50] uh, last week was asked, would you [01:52] accept Iran and Oman jointly managing [01:55] the Strait? And he said, and I'm going [01:57] to quote him here because this is the [01:59] viral quote, quote, "Oman will behave [02:02] just like everybody else or we'll have [02:04] to blow them up. They understand that. [02:07] They'll be fine." [02:09] Okay, the day after that, Treasury [02:10] Secretary Mnuchin [02:13] followed up saying that the US Treasury [02:16] Treasury will aggressively target anyone [02:19] involved in finan- in facilitating the [02:21] tolls of the strait. And he specifically [02:24] named Oman in that. And you see here he [02:26] he said, "I told him this was a [02:28] non-starter." And he did not want to [02:30] risk either the Oman individuals or [02:32] Omani financial institutions getting [02:35] sanctioned. So, the Americans were very [02:37] harsh, very clear with their threats to [02:40] sanction the Omanis if they're part of [02:42] this. Okay, so here's the picture. Iran [02:44] is claiming Oman is in it is its [02:46] partner. [02:47] Oman is is not confirming this and kind [02:50] of denying it. And the United States is [02:52] threatening [02:53] a very long-standing ally. Oman has [02:56] actually been independent for a very [02:57] long time and they have a like a [02:58] 200-year relationship with America. [03:01] Anyway, they're threatening them with [03:03] sanctions and even military action. [03:05] Trump saying he's going to blow them up. [03:07] And the question I want to answer in [03:08] this video is, what exactly is going on [03:12] here? [03:13] Is Oman lying? Is Iran lying? [03:17] And if Iran is lying, why are they [03:19] lying? What is Iran trying to gain by [03:22] making a claim like this if it's not [03:25] true? [03:27] And making a claim that that this [03:30] supposed partner is openly denying. [03:32] Okay, here's what I want to show you. [03:34] What Iran is doing is actually very [03:36] clever. [03:37] I thought about it for a while and I [03:39] have a theory. And if you understand [03:42] what they're doing, you understand a lot [03:43] about how Iran operates [03:45] and why it is why would it Again, why [03:48] would it do this? It's actually quite [03:49] clever. [03:50] All right. Before I answer those [03:52] questions, I want to show you something [03:53] else about this Oman-Iran relationship [03:56] because I've been following Iranian [03:57] state media, as I always do, very [03:59] closely. I read it every day. I've said [04:01] many times that you really have to [04:03] understand where they're going and what [04:05] narratives they're pushing. It's not [04:07] about, and I still get criticisms in the [04:09] comments where people say, "Why are you [04:10] reading this propaganda? Why do you [04:11] believe them?" I don't believe them. [04:13] That's not the point. When you read [04:14] state media from a totalitarian regime, [04:17] you see what narratives they're pushing. [04:20] You You see their strategy at work. You [04:22] just have to know how to read it [04:23] carefully. Okay. [04:26] Iranian state media, specifically WANA [04:28] here, has been publishing a series of [04:30] stories about Oman having nothing to do [04:32] with the Strait of Hormuz. [04:34] But they've been publishing these [04:36] stories along with the stories that I [04:39] showed you about them controlling the [04:42] Strait of Hormuz. So, take a look at [04:43] these stories here. Here's one. War This [04:45] is from uh about 10 days ago, a little [04:47] more. War boosts Iran-Oman trade by 2.5 [04:54] times. Now, according to this one, [04:57] it says that Iran-Oman bilateral trade [04:59] jumped from about $2 billion to nearly [05:01] $5 billion [05:03] since the war began. Iranian businesses [05:05] that used to operate through the UAE are [05:08] now relocating to Oman. That's a big [05:10] piece of these stories is bashing the [05:13] UAE while saying uh while saying nice [05:15] things about Oman. Omani ports have [05:18] become Iran's new primary trade [05:21] corridor, and investment in Oman from [05:23] Iran has increased fourfold. That's [05:26] what's in that story. Can I look at this [05:28] next headline? [05:30] Next headline, and this one is from just [05:32] uh 3 days ago, [05:34] 4 days ago, Sultan of Oman orders trade [05:37] increase with Iran. Another one about [05:40] this trade. This and and this one is [05:43] saying that the Sultan of Oman himself [05:45] has issued orders to grow trade with [05:47] Iran and Oman has replaced the heads of [05:50] some bank branches to make sure Iranian [05:54] traders get faster service. Iranian [05:57] media is [05:59] what they're reporting is that Omani [06:00] officials see this as a very opportune [06:03] moment, an opportunity of a lifetime to [06:06] really engage more with Iran. Okay, [06:09] that's Iranian state media. Now, take it [06:12] with whatever skepticism, but notice [06:13] what they're doing. They're painting a [06:15] picture of Oman as a country that is [06:18] being economically pulled more into [06:20] Iran's orbit. [06:22] Whether the Sultan's orders are exactly [06:25] as they describe them or not, the [06:27] underlying economic reality is real with [06:30] the UAE Iran trade disrupted, they're [06:34] now pretty much open enemies. [06:37] Oman has become Iran's most important [06:39] commercial lifeline. [06:41] Okay, that's what's happening here. [06:43] Now, there's the third story. [06:45] Look at this one. [06:48] And this is where we get back to the [06:49] toll issue. Iran and Oman move toward [06:52] establishing permanent toll system in [06:56] the Strait of Hormuz. [06:58] So, and here it mentions that story that [07:00] was in Bloomberg that the ambassador to [07:01] France announced publicly that they're [07:03] planning a a joint mechanism for [07:06] permanent transit fees for vessels [07:10] passing through the Strait. And now, one [07:12] more story from Iranian state media [07:14] about Oman. This is from yesterday. Iran [07:18] condemns US threats against Oman, [07:21] affirms joint control over Strait of [07:24] Hormuz. So, this is Iran condemning [07:26] Trump's threats to blow them up and [07:28] affirming their joint control over the [07:31] Strait of Hormuz. [07:34] Okay. [07:37] And in this one, the Iranian foreign [07:38] minister called the Omani foreign [07:39] minister and said they expressed [07:41] solidarity with Oman. Now, I want you to [07:44] hold all these stories in your head [07:46] because [07:48] the strategic picture that Iran is [07:49] trying to create is in these stories. [07:52] I'm going to come back and explain [07:53] exactly what it means, but first I need [07:55] to give you some background on Oman [07:57] because we don't know a whole lot about [07:59] them. [08:00] Um they're just another one of these [08:02] Arab states in the Gulf. No, cuz if you [08:04] don't understand Oman, you're going to [08:06] completely misread what's going on. [08:09] So, you know the Middle East and one of [08:11] the most well-known rifts in the Middle [08:13] East is the Sunni-Shiite [08:16] divide in the Muslim world. Almost every [08:18] conflict in this region [08:20] involves that that divide or at least [08:23] it's talked about it that way. You have [08:24] Iran versus Saudi Arabia, Shiite versus [08:26] Sunni. The Houthi war in Yemen is [08:29] Shiites versus Shiites versus Sunnis. [08:31] And there's all sorts of proxy wars from [08:33] Iraq to Lebanon that involve Shiites and [08:35] Sunnis. [08:37] So, which side is Oman on? The answer is [08:40] neither. [08:41] They're not on either side and I don't [08:43] mean that just as a figure of speech. [08:45] I mean it theologically. Oman [08:49] is not Sunni and it is not Shiite. What? [08:52] There's another option? Yes. About 75% [08:55] of Omanis belong to a different branch [08:58] of Islam called Ibadism. They're Ibadis. [09:02] One of the and it's one of the oldest [09:03] branches of Islam. [09:05] It actually predates the Sunni-Shiite [09:08] split [09:09] and Oman is the only Ibadi majority [09:12] country on the face of the earth. [09:14] Now, what is Ibadi Islam and what is it, [09:17] you know, [09:18] what what are the implications for this [09:19] situation? You're going to see it all [09:21] has to do with what's going on now. [09:23] So, Ibadism goes back to the 7th [09:25] century, to the very first civil wars [09:26] within Islam. There was a group that [09:28] looked at the fighting, the war over [09:31] over who should lead the Muslim [09:32] community, [09:33] which led to the Shiite-Sunni he [09:36] and there was a group that saw all this [09:37] fighting and said, "We're not getting [09:39] involved in this." And they and they [09:40] withdrew from the whole thing. [09:42] And they decided they're going to go [09:43] build their community peacefully on [09:45] their own. And this founding decision [09:48] withdrawing from the conflict instead of [09:51] trying to engage in conquest and [09:53] control, this is baked into the theology [09:57] of the Ibadis to this day. [09:59] So, think about how different this is [10:01] from the two other main branches. We [10:02] talk about both of them a lot on this [10:04] channel. Sunni political theology, [10:06] especially the Wahhabi strand of Sunni [10:09] theology coming out of Saudi Arabia, has [10:12] a strong push, a strong imperative [10:15] towards political dominance, right? You [10:18] you you're supposed to have Islamic [10:20] governance, you're supposed to expand, [10:22] there's supposed to there's supposed to [10:23] be a projection of power, and that's [10:26] what, you know, jihad is all about, and [10:28] and and conquering and expanding the [10:31] caliphate, etc. [10:33] And then you have Shiite theology. And [10:35] I've covered this a lot, and it's built [10:37] around the Mahdi, the the hidden Imam, [10:40] the Messiah figure who returns to the [10:42] world when it reaches maximum [10:44] apocalyptic chaos. Right, that's what [10:47] makes the Iranian regime so dangerous, [10:48] right? Chaos isn't a side effect of [10:50] their ideology, it's actually what they [10:52] want. [10:53] Right, because they believe, just if [10:55] you're new to this, [10:56] the Twelver Shiites the Shiite modest [11:00] uh eschatology, they believe that if you [11:03] cause chaos and apocalypse to come to [11:05] the world, that will summon the Messiah [11:07] figure, the Mahdi. [11:09] Uh so, yeah, that's that's why they're [11:11] so dangerous. Anyway, I've said many [11:13] times, when you see Iran behaving in [11:15] ways that seem self-destructive, that [11:17] seem to defy rational self-interest, you [11:19] have to understand [11:20] where they're coming from theologically. [11:22] Okay, back to the Omanis. Ibadism [11:26] has is driven by neither uh focus, not [11:31] the Sunni quest for conquest, nor the [11:34] Shiite quest for [11:36] the end times and and the Mahdi. [11:39] Um there's no obligation to conquer. [11:41] There's no apocalyptic chaos that [11:44] they're seeking to create. There's no [11:46] hidden Imam whose return depends on [11:48] maximum destruction like the like the [11:50] Twelvers. [11:53] So, their theology, the Ibadis, their [11:55] theology is if conditions aren't right, [11:58] withdraw, be patient, build, trade, [12:01] don't pick fights. [12:04] And here's the geopolitical [12:06] um [12:08] Here's the geopolitical result here. And [12:11] this is the part you need to understand. [12:12] This is why I'm doing this. [12:14] Iran trusts Oman because Oman is not [12:17] Sunni. [12:18] It's not part of the Saudi Wahhabi axis [12:21] that Tehran sees as an existential [12:23] enemy, and that's why they've had this [12:25] The Saudis and Iranians have had a tense [12:27] relationship for many many years. Very [12:30] rarely have they even engaged in any [12:32] kind of diplomatic relations. [12:36] But Saudi Arabia trusts Oman because [12:38] Oman is not Shiite. [12:40] And they're both part of the GCC, the [12:42] Gulf's you know, the the Gulf [12:44] Cooperation. [12:46] And they're not an Iranian proxy. [12:48] They're not Shiite. So, everybody trusts [12:50] them. And now the United States trusts [12:52] Oman and has had a great relationship [12:54] with them for decades. The secret [12:56] US-Iran contacts that eventually led to [12:58] the nuclear deal were brokered through [13:00] Muscat. Now, I'm not in favor of the [13:02] nuclear deal, but it shows you that [13:03] there was a a very comfortable working [13:05] relationship there. There were prisoner [13:08] swaps in this war that Oman was involved [13:10] in, back channel communications in order [13:13] to free Americans who were who were who [13:16] were stuck in Iran in earlier years [13:19] were brokered by Oman. Oman helped [13:22] America on many occasions. [13:24] And Netanyahu, Prime Minister Netanyahu, [13:26] even visited Muscat, the the capital of [13:29] Oman in 2018. [13:31] Years before the Abraham Accords, the [13:33] Israeli Prime Minister visited an Arab [13:35] capital before the Abraham Accords. [13:38] Okay, that's that's how far back Well, [13:40] that's how far [13:42] Oman's credibility [13:44] extends, right? They they that that [13:47] could happen. [13:48] So, Oman's very unique. [13:50] A lot of people refer to it as the [13:51] Switzerland of the Middle East. [13:54] Now, unlike Switzerland, it's not it's [13:56] not just a geographic accident. It's it [13:59] it's actually has to do with their [14:01] theology. It's a deliberate [14:04] cultural, strategic [14:06] um [14:07] attitude [14:09] built on this Ibadi theology, built on [14:11] the founding decision to stay out of [14:13] other people's wars going all the way [14:15] back to the 7th century. [14:18] So, that that's the Omani brand. [14:21] So, every time there's a crisis in the [14:22] region, everyone picks up the phone and [14:24] calls Oman because everyone trusts them. [14:28] The And trust is Oman's most important [14:30] strategic asset. The fact that everyone [14:32] trusts them is very critical for them. [14:34] Now, hold that thought because that's [14:35] exactly what makes what Iran is doing [14:37] right now so significant. So, now now we [14:41] have all the pieces of the puzzle. We [14:42] know the stories that are going on. Iran [14:44] is is touting all of this friendship [14:47] with with Oman and we're partners and [14:49] partners in the Strait of Hormuz and [14:50] we're and we're build and our economies [14:52] are growing together and there's more [14:54] investment going back and forth and Oman [14:56] and and Iran, we're arm-in-arm, we're [14:58] shoulder-to-shoulder. What exactly are [15:00] they projecting here? I mean, while the [15:01] Omanis are denying it, [15:04] but we have this Ibadi thing in the [15:05] background. Okay. [15:08] Here we go. [15:09] You have Iran. They've been militarily [15:11] devastated. No no more navy, no more air [15:14] defenses, no more supreme leader. [15:18] Right? They're looking for a way out of [15:19] this war that doesn't look like total [15:21] humiliation. [15:23] Now you have Oman. [15:25] They're small, they're neutral, [15:27] they're trusted by everyone. [15:30] But they're sitting right at the edge of [15:32] the Strait of Hormuz. [15:34] And now they're doing $5 billion a year [15:36] in trade with Iran instead of two. [15:41] And Iran is running around telling the [15:42] world Oman is our partner. We're going [15:44] to jointly manage the Strait of Hormuz [15:46] together. And Oman is saying, "Well, [15:48] that's not exactly what's happening." [15:50] So what's Iran doing? So I want to give [15:52] you three things to think about here. [15:54] Number one, [15:55] I mean three possibilities and they [15:57] could all be true or two out of three, [15:58] meaning they're not mutually exclusive. [16:00] There could be multiple aims of this of [16:03] this strategic move that Iran is making. [16:06] So number one, idea number one, is that [16:09] Iran is [16:11] how do I put this? They're borrowing [16:13] Oman's credibility. [16:16] Think about it this way. [16:18] Iran on its own has zero standing to [16:21] assert control over [16:23] a major global shipping lane, right? No [16:25] one is going to accept that. Zero. [16:27] They're an internationally isolated [16:29] regime. They're a pariah. [16:31] No one's going to accept Iran saying, [16:33] "We run the Strait of Hormuz." But they [16:35] want to run it. [16:36] But if Iran is together with Oman and [16:38] everyone likes Oman, that's a different [16:40] story. Everyone trusts Oman. Oman has a [16:43] long-term relationship with the US. Oman [16:45] is in the GCC with Saudi Arabia and the [16:48] others. Oman is the mediator that [16:50] everybody calls. [16:52] The moment you put Oman's name on [16:54] something, you're making it look [16:55] legitimate and trusted and something [16:57] everyone can agree on. [17:00] So that's what the So So Araghchi, the [17:02] foreign minister of Iran, is framing [17:04] this very deliberate. He doesn't say [17:05] Iran is seizing the Strait of Hormuz. [17:07] He's saying, "Iran and Oman are acting [17:10] in line with our sovereign [17:12] responsibilities and international law." [17:15] Which is not true. [17:16] He's saying that Iran welcomes [17:18] consultation with all neighboring [17:19] states. [17:22] All right, what's he trying to say? [17:24] Oman's name is the thing that transforms [17:27] what Iran is doing [17:29] from just piracy that no one's going to [17:31] accept into something that may or maybe [17:33] there's a diplomatic solution. We all [17:35] trust Oman and if Oman is in charge, [17:37] then maybe we can maybe we can live with [17:39] that. That's what they That's the move [17:40] they're trying to make. [17:42] Now, whether Oman has actually agreed to [17:44] any of this is almost beside the point. [17:45] The claim of partnership with Oman [17:49] is is what is what Iran is trying to [17:51] project. They're trying to project that [17:53] they have a uh [17:55] you know, there's stability here cuz the [17:57] Omanis are trusted. [17:59] Second thing [18:01] that Iran might be doing here [18:04] is [18:05] manufacturing an American overreaction [18:08] and using it. You see, when when Iran [18:10] announces, "We are in negotiations with [18:12] Oman to charge tolls in the Strait of [18:15] Hormuz." Which they did, right? They put [18:16] up a a headline. Where's that headline? [18:20] They put up a headline that said that, [18:21] right here. [18:23] Iran and Oman move toward Meaning, they [18:25] put this out there. They had their [18:26] ambassador in France go to the media [18:30] and tell everyone that they're planning [18:32] to do this, right? So, what are they [18:33] doing? [18:35] They knew that the Americans would lash [18:37] out at this. They knew that Trump would [18:39] say something about it and say it's [18:40] unacceptable. [18:41] So, maybe they're running this move. [18:43] Iran makes an outrageous claim. [18:46] Trump reacts by threatening to blow up [18:48] Oman and then immediately Iran's foreign [18:50] minister calls Oman and expresses [18:52] solidarity with Oman in the face of any [18:54] threat. [18:56] See what just happened? [18:58] Iran provoked an American threat against [19:00] a US ally. [19:02] And then Iran positioned itself as their [19:04] as their defender. [19:06] But they also got the other Arab states [19:08] to get upset. A lot of people did not [19:09] like this threat. Turkish media has been [19:11] running anti-American, anti-Trump [19:14] stories ever since this threat on Oman [19:16] was made, [19:17] calling it out as out of line. [19:20] So, they're trying to pull [19:23] they're trying to cause an overreaction [19:24] by the Trump administration. [19:27] They're trying to drive a wedge between [19:29] Oman and Washington and maybe some of [19:31] the other Arab states in Washington who [19:32] don't like the way the America's [19:34] behaving. They're trying to make Oman [19:36] feel that the United States is a bully, [19:39] threatening a small neutral country that [19:41] has been a faithful partner for two [19:43] centuries. [19:46] So, every headline that reads "US [19:48] threatens Oman" is a headline that Iran [19:50] deliberately [19:53] manufactured, basically, by making the [19:56] claim loudly enough to get the reaction [19:58] from Trump. [19:59] Now, will it work? I don't know. I think [20:01] Oman is too smart for that. They [20:03] understand the game, [20:04] but it's a play, and that's it's not [20:06] necessarily a stupid play. Idea number [20:09] three [20:10] is that Iran is locking Oman in [20:13] economically [20:16] by increasing their trade, and they're [20:18] trying to to just tighten that economic [20:21] relationship. This is the most important [20:22] one, and it's the most dangerous one for [20:24] Oman. [20:25] See, if we go back to those WANA [20:26] stories, what did it say there? That [20:28] trade between Iran and Oman has gone [20:30] from 2 billion to 5 billion dollars. [20:33] Iranian businessmen are moving [20:36] their assets from Dubai in the UAE to [20:39] Muscat in Oman. Omani ports are now [20:42] processing Iranian goods that used to go [20:45] through UAE ports. Omani banks have been [20:48] restructured now to handle more Iranian [20:51] trade and investment. [20:53] The Sultan himself is leaning into this. [20:56] These are the headlines that we saw. [20:59] So, what's this? [21:01] These are economic realities, right? The [21:03] UAE-Iran trade being disrupted by the [21:07] war, Oman now [21:09] takes advantage of that situation or is [21:12] given the opportunity to take advantage [21:14] of that situation and is benefiting from [21:16] it. [21:18] And that creates an economic [21:20] interdependence and that creates [21:22] tremendous gains for Oman by being good [21:26] to the Iranians and replacing the UAE as [21:30] as their as their trade hub. [21:34] And those relationships, Iran of course [21:37] would hope, do not go away after the war [21:39] ends and Oman is benefiting greatly from [21:41] that. Iran understands that if it can [21:44] deepen Oman's economic stake [21:48] in the relationship, [21:51] Oman will find it very difficult to say [21:53] no [21:55] to things that Iran wants to do later [21:58] on. [22:01] Right, like maybe something in the [22:02] Strait of Hormuz. [22:05] $5 billion in trade is a lot of so [22:07] that's a lot of trade. [22:11] So Iran's creating facts on the ground [22:13] economically with Oman that will outlast [22:16] this particular moment. If the regime [22:18] survives, they now have this [22:20] this beefed-up trading partner in Oman. [22:25] And that's a much better ally for them [22:26] than the UAE ever was. [22:29] So maybe that's the real strategy behind [22:31] all these stories in Iranian state [22:33] media. [22:35] Right, this isn't just petty propaganda. [22:37] This is we're looking through these [22:39] headlines to see what is the play that [22:42] they're making. [22:43] And they what they see is in the in the [22:45] in the big chessboard, there's the [22:47] Saudis and the Emiratis who are kind of [22:49] adversaries, but you know, the Saudis [22:51] are sort of trying to save the regime [22:53] maybe and you have the Turks and the [22:55] Qataris. They're looking at Oman and [22:57] saying this these guys [23:01] we can build up this relationship. We [23:03] can trust them, and we can have a real [23:05] ally here. [23:07] And [23:08] yeah, so what does that leave all of us? [23:12] So here's the bottom line as I see it. I [23:13] believe that I think that [23:16] I think that Oman's denial [23:19] about the Strait of Hormuz thing is [23:20] genuine. Oman knows that its value comes [23:23] from being neutral and trusted, and [23:25] they're they're not going to engage in [23:28] this [23:29] toll thing. The moment Oman is seen as [23:32] Iran's partner, they lose credibility. [23:35] They lose their relationship with the [23:36] US, they lose their relationship with [23:38] the Gulf states, they lose their [23:39] relationship as a trusted mediator. They [23:42] can't get involved in this. [23:45] Okay, I mean they lose their whole [23:47] strategic position. [23:49] Oman knows this. They're not going to [23:50] throw it all away by saying, "Yeah, [23:52] we're we're working with the Iranians to [23:53] charge tolls." [23:56] But Oman's being squeezed. [23:58] They're being squeezed economically. [24:01] And they're being [24:04] they're being squeezed by trade [24:05] relationships that are now pulling them [24:07] closer to Iran, whether they like it or [24:10] not. There there is an increase in trade [24:13] between Oman and Iran. [24:17] And Iran's public claims about Oman are [24:21] making Washington treat Oman as a [24:24] suspect rather than as an ally. [24:28] So Oman's in a tight spot. Iran is [24:30] playing it brilliantly. [24:33] They can't win militarily, right? [24:35] But they're trying to win [24:38] an ally in the post-war arrangement. [24:42] They're trying to emerge from the war [24:44] with some kind of recognized role in the [24:46] strait. And [24:49] again, they could never do it on their [24:50] own, but maybe they have a shot if the [24:53] Omanis are involved that everybody [24:55] trusts. [24:56] They need some kind of legitimacy, some [24:58] kind of economic lifeline. And if they [25:00] could do it through Oman, [25:03] then the regime can survive [25:05] uh [25:06] uh it can survive. [25:10] Now, will it work? I I don't think it's [25:11] going to work. I think Oman is too [25:12] smart, and the US is watching too [25:14] carefully. [25:15] But, I'll tell you this, when you read [25:16] Iranian state media running four stories [25:19] in 2 weeks about how close Oman and Iran [25:21] are getting and how much they're working [25:23] together, [25:25] you start to see what they're doing. [25:27] Okay, that's the Oman-Iran-Hormuz [25:29] story. Thanks for watching. Keep [25:31] sharing. Keep subscribing. Keep [25:32] following what we're doing here. Make [25:35] sure you also follow what we're doing in [25:36] Israel 365 News. There's a lot happening [25:38] in this war. [25:39] And I'm just trying to [25:41] bring you the deep dive on all of these [25:43] subplots. [25:45] And again, the Oman one Oman suddenly [25:48] hit the headlines, and we've got to [25:49] understand who they are. [25:51] Uh I hope this provided you some info [25:53] that you wouldn't necessarily get [25:55] anywhere else. God bless. Thanks for [25:57] watching.
